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Crop Market Outlook - Department of Economics

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Crop Market Outlook
Oct. 9, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
[email protected]
515-294-9911
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.4
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,555
Beg. Stocks
(mil. bu.)
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,731
Imports
(mil. bu.)
29
160
36
32
30
Total Supply
(mil. bu.)
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,316
Feed & Residual
(mil. bu.)
4,557
4,315
5,034
5,317
5,275
Ethanol
(mil. bu.)
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,207
5,250
Food, Seed, & Other
(mil. bu.)
1,428
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,380
Exports
(mil. bu.)
1,543
730
1,917
1,864
1,850
Total Use
(mil. bu.)
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,755
Ending Stocks
(mil. bu.)
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,561
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.80
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.3
83.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.5
47.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,888
Beg. Stocks
(mil. bu.)
215
169
141
92
191
Imports
(mil. bu.)
16
41
72
33
30
Total Supply
(mil. bu.)
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,109
Crush
(mil. bu.)
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,875
1,880
Seed & Residual
(mil. bu.)
88
105
97
143
130
Exports
(mil. bu.)
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,843
1,675
Total Use
(mil. bu.)
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,685
Ending Stocks
(mil. bu.)
169
141
92
191
425
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.10
9.15
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Objective Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Yield Estimate
Source: USDA-NASS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds
Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig
Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: 1250 pounds
Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures
3.86
3.64
Source: CME Group, 10/2/2015
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures
8.43
8.53
Source: CME Group, 10/2/2015
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2015/16 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2016/17 Crop Margins
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Rain made grain, but we’re still debating how much
Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows
Negative margins for 2015-2016 crops
2014/15 2015/16
USDA
USDA
Corn
Soybeans
$3.70
$10.10
$3.80
$9.15
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2015/16
Futures
(10/9/15)
$3.64
$8.43
2016/17
Futures
(10/9/15)
$3.86
$8.53
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:
http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/
Iowa Farm Outlook:
http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/
Ag Decision Maker:
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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