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Antakya bölgesi rüzgar karakteristiğinin

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'LFOHhQLYHUVLWHVL0KHQGLVOLN)DNOWHVL
mühendislikdergisi
PKHQGLVOLN dergisi
Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi
Cilt: 5,
3-9
1, Mart 2014
AQWDN\DE|OJHVLU]JDUNDUDNWHULVWL÷Lnin incelenmesi
øONHU0(57&XPD.$5$.8ù*, Fatih PEKER
Mustafa Kemal hQLYHUVLWHVLMakine 0KHQGLVOL÷L%|OP,31200,øVNHQGHUXQ
Özet
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Hata Kareleri 7RSODPÕQÕQ.DUHN|N 506( KDWDDQDOL]OHULLOH GH÷HUOHQGLULOPLúWLU6RQXo olarak Antakya
E|OJHVLQLQ U]JDU HQHUMLVL SRWDQVL\HOLQLQ LVWDWLstiksel RODUDN HOHNWULN HQHUMLVL UHWLPL EDNÕPÕQGDQ FHVDUHW
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Anahtar Kelimeler: Antakya, Weibull - Log-QRUPDOGD÷ÕOÕPÕ(QNoNNDUHOHU\|QWHPL0DNVLPXP
2ODELOLUOLN7DKPLQL5]JDUHQHUMLVL
*
<D]ÕúPDODUÕQ\DSÕODFD÷Õ\D]DU&XPD.$5$.8ù. [email protected]; Tel: (326) 613 56 00 (4401)
13
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Investigation of wind characteristics
for Antioch
Extended abstract
Rapidly increased the environmental pollution,
global population and exhausted reserves of
consuetudinary resources have become matters of
social and economic concern to individuals and
scientists since the '70s. With the rising costs of
traditional energy resources, alternative renewable
sources of energy are playing more important role.
Actually, there is the many types of renewable
energy resources such as hydro, solar, wind,
biomass, geothermal, wave and tide energy. Among
of them, the wind energy is maybe the cleanest,
inexhaustible and popular source of energy. But
wind energy has several disadvantages and one of
them is that winds are inherently random. Wind
power prediction processes give the information of
how much wind power can be expected at which
point of time in the determined time interval.
However, these processes required the short and
long-term wind characteristics and other
measurements at a given location. In this respect,
obtained wind speed, direction, humidity, pressure
values and surface roughness information can
provide fundamental and valuable information for
the assessment of wind power energy availability
and give knowledge for economic viability of a wind
energy conversion system and also wind farm
design. Turkey has important wind energy potential
in the Akdeniz region, especially coasts of southern
Anatolia. In this study, wind energy potential was
statistically analyzed based on the data that are
measured wind speed on a daily basis. Wind data
obtained from the Directorate of Hatay
Meteorological Station located Antioch which is
central town of Hatay in southern Turkey, near the
border with Syria in years between 2002 and 2009.
A precise determination of probability distribution
for wind speed data is the most important issue in
statistically evaluating wind speed energy potential
of a region. In generally, wind speed distribution
have generally modeled by the 3-parameter
Generalized Gamma , 2-parameter Gamma , inverse
Gaussian, 2-parameter Lognormal , 3-parameter
Beta, singly truncated from below Normal,
distributions derived from the Maximum Entropy
Principle, and conventional or bimodal (two
component mixture) Weibull distribution functions
etc.. But the wind energy potential of Antioch was
investigated by Weibull Distribution that is popular
.
14
on the modeling of wind speed and Log-normal
distribution function which is previously untested in
Antioch. In the estimation of parameters of Weibull
and log-normal distribution, the Maximum
Likelihood Estimation (ML) and the Least Square
Method (LSM) were used as the parameter
estimation technique. The value of the Weibull shape
parameter c is between 2.71 and 3.07 m/s, while the
scale parameter k varies between 1.96 and 2.09 for
ML method. When the LSM method is used, c is
calculated between 2.61 and 2.96 m/s, while the
scale parameter k varies between 2.34 and 2.53. If
ML method use, the yearly values of Log-normal
VFDOH SDUDPHWHU ı UDQJH EHWZHHQ DQG :KHQ/60PHWKRGSUHIHUUHGıYDULHVEHWZHHQ
and 0.57. The lowest value of the Log-normal
location parameWHUȝDUH0/-LSM) and found
in the year 2009, while the highest values were 0.84
(ML) and 0.86 (LSM), which occurred in the year
2004. There are various tests used for evaluating the
accuracy of the forecasted wind distributions
obtained from various statistical functions. Both
methods were evaluated by using error analysis that
DUH FRHIILFLHQW RI 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ 5ð DQG WKH
Average Square Root Sum of the Squares Error
(RMSE). The highest root mean square error
(RMSE) value was found as 0.020014 for the Lognormal distribution function by the ML method. The
lowest RMSE value was calculated as 0.016242 by
LSM method. Additionally these values were
calculated 0.012081(ML) and 0.014582(LSM) for
WKH :HLEXOO GLVWULEXWLRQ 2WKHU KDQG WKH 5ð YDOXHV
obtained using Log-normal distribution function are
%98 in both methods, while the 2 value is %99 for
the Weibull distribution. The Weibull and Lognormal approximations of the actual probability
distributions of wind speed for the whole year have
close results. However, the best performance has
been demonstrated by Weibull distribution with the
ML method. The analysis results also showed that
the maximum monthly wind speed occurs in the
summer months while the months of winter have the
lowest mean wind speed. The Weibull distribution
provided better power density estimations in all
months than the Log-normal distribution. As a result
of this research when the wind turbines have low
cut-in speed, were preferred, wind energy potential
of Antakya was statistically found to be encouraging
for production of electrical energy.
Keywords: Antioch, Weibull – Log-normal
distribution, Least square method, Maximum
likelihood estimation, Wind energy.
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ùHNLO ¶GH J|VWHULOPLúWLU 5]JDU KÕ]ODUÕ J|]
|QQH DOÕQDUDN VÕQÕIODQGÕUPD \DSÕOPÕú YH KHU
VÕQÕIWDNLU]JDUÕQHVLúIUHNDQVODUÕRODUDNLIDGH
HGLOPLúWLU ùHNLO ¶GHQ GH DQODúÕODFD÷Õ ]HUH
E|OJHGHNL U]JDU KÕ]ÕQÕQ ¶L -2.1 m/s
DUDOÕ÷ÕQGDROGX÷XJ|UOPHNWHGLU%XQXVÕUDVÕ\OD
¶L-PV¶L2.1-PVKÕ]ÕQGDNL
U]JDUODUWDNLSHWPHNWHGLU
NXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU %X oDOÕúPDGD U]JDU KÕ]Õ
SRWDQVL\HOL DUDúWÕUPDODUÕQGD \D\JÕQ RODUDN
NXOODQÕODQ SDUDPHWULN DQDOL] \DSÕOPÕú RODVÕOÕN
\R÷XQOXN IRQNVL\RQODUÕ RODUDN SDUDPHWUHOL
Weibull
ve
Log-QRUPDO
GD÷ÕOÕPODUÕ
NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU .XOODQÕODQ EX LNL GD÷ÕOÕPÕQ
SDUDPHWUHOHULQL KHVDSODPDN LoLQ (Q dRN
(Maksimum) Olabilirlik Tahmini (ML) ile En
.oN.DUHOHU0HWRGX/60NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU
(OGH HGLOHQ VRQXoODU LVH LVWDWLVWLNVHO
oDOÕúPDODUGD VÕNOÕNOD NXOODQÕODQ 52 belirleme
NDWVD\ÕVÕ YH 506( RUWDODPD KDWD NDUHOHUL
WRSODPÕ N|N GH÷HUOHUL KHVDSODQDUDN HQ GúN
KDWD\DVDKLSGD÷ÕOÕPDUDúWÕUÕOPÕúWÕU
Weibull ve Log-QRUPDO'D÷ÕOÕP
)RQNVL\RQODUÕ
/LWHUDWUGH HQ VÕN NXOODQÕODQ GD÷ÕOÕPODUGDQ
ELULVL LNL SDUDPHWUHOL :HLEXOO GD÷ÕOÕP
IRQNVL\RQXGXU 5]JDU KÕ]Õ LoLQ LNL SDUDPHWUHOL
:HLEXOOGD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕQJHQHOLIDGHVL
f w (V )
k §V ·
¨ ¸
c©c ¹
k 1
e V / c k
(2)
úHNOLQGHGLU %XUDGD fw(V), J|]OHPOHQHQ U]JDU
KÕ]Õ V¶QLQ RODVÕOÕN IRQNVL\RQX F U]JDU KÕ]Õ LOH
D\QÕ ELULPH VDKLS |OoHN SDUDPHWUHVL YH N LVH
ER\XWVX] úHNLO SDUDPHWUHVLGLU :HLEXOO
<LQH ùHNLO ¶GH J|UOG÷ JLEL U]JDUÕQ HQ GD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕQELULNLPOLRODVÕOÕNIRQNVL\RQXLVH
JoO ROGX÷X \|QOHU LVH NX]H\ NX]H\-GR÷X
k
kuzey / kuzey-GR÷XYH JQH\ / JQH\-EDWÕ¶GÕU
(3)
Fw (V ) 1 exp V / c ùHNLO*QONRUWDODPDU]JDUKÕ]ÕYH\|QVHO
GD÷ÕOÕPÕ
Metot
HerhaQJL ELU E|OJHQLQ U]JDU SURILOL
GH÷HUOHQGLULOLUNHQ VDDWOLN RUWDODPD JQON
RUWDODPD D\OÕN RUWDODPD PHYVLPVHO YH \ÕOOÕN
RUWDODPD U]JDUÕQ HVPH \|Q JLEL YHULOHUH
LKWL\Do YDUGÕU (OGH HGLOHQ EX YHULOHU LOH U]JDU
KÕ]ODUÕQÕQ VWDQGDUW VDSPDVÕ WUEODQVÕ ve
NPODWLIGD÷ÕOÕPÕJLEL GH÷HUOHUWHVSLWHGLOHELOLU
%X oDOÕúPDGD $QWDN\D E|OJHVLQLQ -2009
\ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL VDDWOLN RUWDODPD YHULOHUGHQ
HOGH HGLOHQ JQON RUWDODPD KÕ] YH \|Q
GH÷HUOHULQGHQ\DUDUODQÕOPÕúWÕU
%HOOL ELU E|OJHGHNL U]JDU SURILOLQL EHlirlemek
LoLQ
RODVÕOÕN
\R÷XQOXN
IRQNVL\RQODUÕ
úHNOLQGH LIDGH HGLOPHNWHGLU 2UWDODPD U]JDU
KÕ]ÕSURILOLYHHQHUMLSRWDQVL\HOLQLQEHOLUOHQPHVL
LoLQ :HLEXOO SDUDPHWUHOHUL RODQ c ve k¶QÕQ
EXOXQPDVÕ JHUHNOLGLU c ve k parametrelerinin
tahmin edilmesi ile birlikte RUWDODPDU]JDU KÕ]Õ ise;
§1 ·
(4)
c*¨ 1¸
©k
¹
V Weibull
úHNOLQGH KHVDSODQDELOLU. Burada,
RUWDODPD U]JDU KÕ]ÕQÕ ī…) ise Gamma
fonksiyonunu
ifade
eder.
Gamma
fonksiyonunun genel ifadesi ise EúLWOLN LOH
verilebilir.
18
V Weibull
$QWDN\DE|OJHVLU]JDUNDUDNWHULVWL÷LLQFHOHQPHVL
Bunlardan birincisi R2 beOLUOHPH NDWVD\ÕVÕ
IRUPOROXS(úLWOLN¶GDYHULOPLúWLU
f
*(t )
x t 1
³ e x dx
(5)
0
n
c ve k SDUDPHWUHOHULQLQKHVDSODQPDVÕQGDQVRQUD
RUWDODPDU]JDUJF\R÷XQOX÷X
Pw
3
1 3
Uc *(1 )
2
k
R
2
1
¦(y
i
xi )
i
y) 2
i 1
n
¦(y
(10)
i 1
(6)
øNLQFL KDWD IRUPO LVH (úLWOLN ¶GH YHULOHQ
+DWD .DUHOHUL 7RSODPÕQÕQ .DUHN|N 506(
olup;
ile hesaplanabilir. BuUDGD \R÷XQOXN NJ P3 )
olup hesaplamalarda 1.225 kg /m3 kabul
HGLOPLúWLU
n
RMSE
(1 ¦ ( yi xi ) 2 ) 0.5
(11)
1RUPDO GD÷ÕOÕPÕQ NROD\ YH |]HOOLNOHULQLQ L\L
ELOLQPHVLQGHQ GROD\Õ QRUPDO GD÷ÕOPÕú ROPD\DQ
GD÷ÕOÕPODUÕQ GD X\JXQ ELU G|QúPOH QRUPDO
GD÷ÕOÕPDX\GXUXOPDVÕ\ROXQDJLGLOLU%XDPDoOa
ORJDULWPLN G|QúP \D\JÕQ RODUDN NXOODQÕOÕU
Log-QRUPDO GD÷ÕOÕPGD UDVWJHOH GH÷LúNHQLQ
VDGHFHSR]LWLIGH÷HUOHUDODELOGL÷LYHGD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕQ
SR]LWLIoDUSÕNOÕ÷ÕROGX÷XLoLQEXGD÷ÕOÕPSUDWLNWH
NDUúÕODúÕODQ ELUoRN GH÷LúNHQOHUH L\L X\PDNWDGÕU
hONHYH%DUDQ5).
Burada Q J|]OHP VD\ÕVÕ \¶OHU RUWDODPD JHUoHN
GH÷HUOHU YH [¶OHr Weibull ve Log-normal
GD÷ÕOÕPÕ LOHKHVDSODQDQ U]JDUKÕ]Õ GH÷HUOHULGLU
/LWHUDWUGHLVH52 GH÷HULHQE\N\DGD506(
GH÷HUL HQ NoN GD÷ÕOÕP IRQNVL\RQX HQ L\L
GD÷ÕOÕPIRQNVL\RQXRODUDNNDEXOHGLOPHNWHROXS
EX NULWHUOHUH J|UH KDWD DQDOL]L \DSÕOPDNWDGÕU
($NGD÷YG.
Log-QRUPDO
fonksiyonu,
$UDúWÕUPDVRQXoODUÕ
GD÷ÕOÕPÕQ
RODVÕOÕN
\R÷XQOXN
i 1
%X oDOÕúPDGD 5]JDU KÕ]Õ YHULOHUL $QWDN\D
merkezde yer alan Meteoroloji Genel
1
2
0GUO÷QHDLW2WRPDWLN 0HWHRURORML *|]OHP
(7)
f Lognormal( x)
e 2V
VV 2S
øVWDV\RQX WDUDIÕQGDQ yerden P \NVHNOLNWH
|OoOPúWU 5]JDU KÕ]Õ Gk DUDOÕNODUOD
úeklinde verilmektedir. Burada, P yer |OoOHUHN VDDWOLN RUWDODPDVÕ VWDQGDUW
parametresi ve V |OoHNSDUDPHWUHVLGLU2UWDODPD VDSPDVÕ DúÕUÕ PD[ YH PLQ GH÷HUOHUL ND\ÕW
HGLOPLúROXS- \ÕOODUÕDUDVÕQGDNLVHNL]
U]JDUKÕ]ÕLVH
\ÕOOÕN G|QHPL NDSVDPDNWDGÕU P \NVHNOLNWH
V2
P ( )
GNDUDLOH|OoOHQVDDWOLNRUWDODPDU]JDU
V Lognormal e 2
(8)
KÕ]ÕYHULOHULQHLOLúNLQIUHNDQVGD÷ÕOÕPÕRUWDODPD
úHNOLQGH YHULOPHNWHGLU 2UWDODPD U]JDU JF U]JDU KÕ]Õ YH RUWDODPD Jo \R÷XQOXNODUÕ ùHNLO
ùHNLOYHùHNLO¶GHJ|UOPHNWHGLU
\R÷XQOX÷XLVH
(ln V P ) 2
5]JDU KÕ]Õ YHULOHUL |QFHOLNOH 0/ \|QWHPL
VRQUDVÕQGD LVH /60 \|QWHPL NXOODQÕODUDN \ÕOOÕN
RODUDNGH÷HUOHQGLULOPLú0/YH/60\|QWHPleri
ile tahmin edilen Weibull ve Log-normal
olarak ifade edilmektedir.
GD÷ÕOÕPODUÕQD DLW SDUDPHWUHOHUL YH EXQODUD ED÷OÕ
RODUDN \ÕOOÕN RUWDODPD U]JDU KÕ]Õ RUWDODPD Jo
Hata analizi
\R÷XQOX÷XLOHVWDQGDUWVDSPDGH÷HUOHUL7DEOR %X oDOÕúPDGD NXOODQÕODQ \|QWHPOHU LNL IDUNOÕ YH7DEOR¶GHYHULOPLúWLU
KDWD KHVDEÕ IRUPO LOH DQDOL] HGLOPLúWLU
V2
PL
1 P ( 2 )3
Ue
2
(9)
19
ø. Mert, C. .DUDNXú)3HNHU
:HLEXOOGD÷ÕOÕPÕ için En Küçük Kareler (LSM)
\|QWHPL GDKD NoN VWDQGDUW VDSPD GH÷HULQH
VDKLS ROGX÷X LoLQ GDKD EDúDUÕOÕ ROGX÷X Tablo
1’de görülmektedir. $\QÕ WDEORGD c ( ölçek
SDUDPHWUHVL¶QLQ HQ NoN m/s en fazla
3.03 m/s ROGX÷Xk úHNLOSDUDPHWUHVL¶nin ise en
NoN HQ E\N ROGX÷X da
J|UOPektedir.
0/ YH /60 NXOODQÕODUDN KHVDSODQDQ /RJQRUPDO GD÷ÕOÕPÕQDDLW ı|OoHNSDUDPHWUHVL)’nin
HQNoNHQE\NYHP (yer-konum
SDUDPHWUHVL HQ NoN HQ E\N ROGX÷X da 7DEOR¶GHJ|UOmektedir.XOODQÕODQ
her iki parametre kestiriP \|QWHPLQLQGH \ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕ $QWDN\D E|OJHVL U]JDU
YHULOHUL LoLQ ELUELULQH \DNÕQ VWDQGDUW VDSPD\D
VDKLS ROGX÷X GROD\ÕVÕ\OD EDúDUÕOÕ ROGX÷X
J|UOPHNWHGLU
Tablo 1. 0/YH/60PHWRGODUÕLOHKHVDSODQDQ:HLEXOOYH/RJ-QRUPDOGD÷ÕOÕPODUÕQÕQSDUDPHWreleri
Parametre -<ÕO
c
k
2UW+Õ]
2UW5]*o<R÷
Std. Sapma
2002
2.90
2.09
2.57
18.98
1.29
2003
3.03
2.09
2.68
21.62
1.35
2004
3.07
2.12
2.72
22.16
1.35
2005
3.05
1.96
2.70
23.52
1.44
2006
3.07
1.96
2.72
24.04
1.45
2007
2.88
1.99
2.56
19.62
1.34
2008
2.85
2.03
2.53
18.62
1.31
2009
2.71
2.03
2.40
16.0
1.24
Weibull LSM
c
k
2UW+Õ]
2UW5]*o<R÷
Std. Sapma
2.79
2.53
2.47
14.46
1.05
2.92
2.47
2.59
16.99
1.12
2.96
2.53
2.63
17.38
1.11
2.93
2.34
2.59
17.72
1.18
2.95
2.28
2.62
18.64
1.22
2.77
2.46
2.45
14.46
1.07
2.76
2.34
2.44
14.78
1.11
2.61
2.40
2.32
12.3
1.03
Log-normal ML
ı
ȝ
2UW+Õ]
2UW5]*o<R÷
Std. Sapma
0.53
0.80
2.56
10.29
1.47
0.54
0.84
2.69
11.86
1.57
0.55
0.84
2.70
12.09
1.37
0.58
0.83
2.70
12.09
1.69
0.59
0.83
2.73
12.48
1.76
0.55
0.79
2.55
10.12
1.50
0.57
0.77
2.54
9.99
1.56
0.55
0.72
2.40
8.51
1.44
Log-normal LSM
ı
ȝ
Ort. HÕ]
2UW5]*o<R÷
Std. Sapma
0.52
0.80
2.55
10.10
1.43
0.53
0.84
2.67
11.64
1.52
0.52
0.86
2.70
12.07
1.51
0.56
0.83
2.68
11.83
1.64
0.57
0.83
2.71
12.16
1.69
0.54
0.78
2.53
9.97
1.47
0.56
0.77
2.52
9.79
1.52
0.55
0.72
2.39
8.35
1.41
Weibull ML
Tablo 2. 'D÷ÕOÕPODUDJ|UHRUWDODPDJo\R÷XQOXNODUÕ
<ÕO
3Y*|]OHP'H÷HUOHULQH*|UH
2UW*o<R÷:/ m )
Weibull ML
2UW*o
<R÷:P2)
2002
10.2
10.35161371
9.25413
10.2944
10.10468182
2003
2004
11.6
11.9
11.83708804
12.29300053
10.6783
11.1100
11.8593
12.0853
11.64048793
12.07272355
2005
2006
11.7
11.7
12.06615488
12.30711923
10.6808
10.9775
12.0947
12.4760
11.82954692
12.15685154
2007
2008
9.9
9.4
10.23227334
9.878472265
9.0590
8.9148
10.1156
9.9889
9.969065708
9.793559843
2009
8.0
8.501113978
7.6182
8.5125
8.349001823
2
20
Weibull LSM
2UW*o
<R÷:P2)
Log-normal ML
2UW*o
<R÷:P2)
Log-normal LSM
2UW*o
<R÷:P2)
$QWDN\DE|OJHVLU]JDUNDUDNWHULVWL÷LLQFHOHQPHVL
2002- \ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL U]JDU YHULOHULQH
J|UH HOGH HGLOHQ KDWD DQDOL]L VRQXoODUÕ 7DEOR
¶GH YHULOPLúWLU <DSÕODQ KDWD DQDOL]OHULQH J|UH
HQ \NVHN 52 %99 ( Weibull ML ) en az ise
%98 ( Log-QRUPDO 0/ GH÷HUOHUL 506( LoLQ
en az 0.012081 ( Weibull ML ) en fazla
0.020014 ( Log-normal ML) GH÷HUOHUL HOGH
HGLOPLúWLU
Tablo 3. 2002-\ÕOODUÕLoLQKDWDDQDOL]L
2ODVÕOÕN'D÷ÕOÕP
Fonk.
WEIBULL
LOG-NORMAL
METOD
ML
LSM
ML
LSM
R2
99%
99%
98%
98%
0.012081
0.014582
RMSE
0.020014 0.016242
7DUWÕúPDYHVRQXoODU
%X oDOÕúPDGD +DWD\ LOL $QWDN\D E|OJHVLQGHNL
2002- \ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL \ÕOOÕN SHUL\RW
ER\XQFD GN DUDOÕNODUOD ND\GHGLOHQ U]JDU
YHULOHUL %|OJH 0HWHRURORML 0GUO÷
WDUDIÕQGDQ HOGH HGLOPLúWLU (OGH HGLOHQ YHULOHU
DQDOL]HGLOPLúYHQHWLFHVLQGHU]JDUKÕ]ÕYHULOHUL
LoLQ U]JDU KÕ] GD÷ÕOÕPlarÕ RODVÕOÕN \R÷XQOXN
fonksiyonu X\JXODPDVÕ ve parametre tahmini
\DSÕOPÕúWÕU øVWDWLVWLNVHO DQDOL]OHUGH :HLEXOO
GD÷ÕOÕPÕ YH /RJ-QRUPDO GD÷ÕOÕPODUÕ LoLQ
0DNVLPXP 2ODELOLUOLN 7DKPLQL YH (Q .oN
.DUHOHU0HWRGXROPDN]HUHLNLIDUNOÕSDUDPHWUH
NHVWLULPWHNQL÷L NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU<DSÕODQDQDOL]OHU
neticesinde, parametre tahmin tekniklerinden
ML-0DNVLPXP RODELOLUOLN WHNQL÷LQLQ :HLEXOO
GD÷ÕOÕPÕLoLQYHHQNoNNDUHOHU\|QWHPLQLQGH
Log-QRUPDO GD÷ÕOÕPÕ LoLQ GDKD L\L VRQXoODU
YHUGL÷L EHOLUOHQPLúWLU $\QÕ ]DPDQGD EX
SDUDPHWUH NHVWLULP WHNQLNOHULQH J|UH RODVÕOÕN
\R÷XQOXN
IRQNVL\RQODUÕQGDQ
/RJ-normal
GD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕQ $QWDN\D E|OJHVL - \ÕOODUÕ
DUDVÕQGDNL PHYFXW U]JDU KÕ] YHULOHULQH J|UH
:HLEXOO GD÷ÕOÕPÕQD EHQ]HU VRQXoODU RUWD\D
NR\GX÷X WHVSLW HGLOPLúWLU 5]JDU SRWDQVL\HOL
DoÕVÕQGDQ oDOÕúPDQÕQ HQ |QHPOL VRQXoODUÕ úX
úHNLOGH |]HWOHQHELOLU Zeminden 10 m
\NVHNOLNWH\DSÕODQ|OoPOHUQHWLFHVLQGH\NVHN
U]JDU KÕ]ODUÕ \D] D\ODUÕQD GHQN JHOHQ +D]LUDQ
YH (\OO D\ODUÕ DUDVÕQGD RUWDODPD m/s ile 4.6
PV DUDVÕQGD PH\GDQD JHOPHNWHGLU .DVÕP YH
$UDOÕND\ODUÕQGDLVHRUWDODPD m/s ve 1.4 m/s
JLEL GúN GH÷HUOHU J|]OHQPHNWHGLU %|OJHGH
J|]OHPOHQHQ U]JkU KÕ]ODUÕ .DVÕP D\ÕQGD
PLQLPXP YH 7HPPX] D\ÕQGD LVH PDNVLPXP
GH÷HUH XODúPDNWDGÕU 2UWDODPD U]JDU HQHUMLVL
potansiyeli J|]OHP \DSÕODQ E|OJH LWLEDUL\OH
RUWDODPD HQ \NVHN GH÷HU :P2 olarak
EXOXQPXúWXU 0DNVLPXP Jo 7HPPX] YH
PLQLPXP Jo .DVÕP
GD HOGH HGLOPHNWHGLU
5]JDUÕQ HQ JoO ROGX÷X \|QOHU LVH NX]H\
kuzey-GR÷X
NX]H\NX]H\-GR÷X
YH
JQH\JQH\-EDWÕ¶GÕU5]JDUWUELQOHULQLQ de bu
\|QOHUGH NXUXOPDVÕ HQHUML WDúÕ\DQ U]JDUODUÕQ
\DNDODQPDVÕQÕ
VD÷OD\DFDNWÕU
<DSÕODQ
DUDúWÕUPDODU QHWLFHVLQGH U]JDU |OoPOHULQLQ
yapÕOGÕ÷Õ $QWDN\D PHUNH]LQLQ U]JDU HQHUMLVL
SRWDQVL\HOLQLQ
FHVDUHW
YHULFL
ROGX÷X
GH÷HUOHQGLULOPHNWHGLU
%|OJH
U]JDU
SRWDQVL\HOLQLQ PHUNH]H \DNÕQ úHEHNH\H GLUHN
RODUDN ED÷OÕ ROPD\DQ D\GÕQODWPD VLVWHPOHUL
WDUÕPVDO DUD]LOHULQ VXODQPDVÕ JLEL HOHNWULN YH
mekanLN X\JXODPDODUGD NXOODQÕODELOHFH÷L X]XQ
YDGH GH WHNQRORMLQLQ JHOLúLPL YH WUELQ
PDOL\HWLQGHNL D]DOPD\D ED÷OÕ RODUDN úHEHNH\H
GHGHVWHNYHUHELOHFH÷L|QHULOPHNWHGLU
Semboller
A
c
FW(V)
fW(v)
fLog-normal(V)
K
N
PW
PL
P(V)
ȡ
ı
V
y
x
ML
LSM
R²
RMSE
21
: Alan (m2)
:HLEXOO|OoHNSDUDPHWUHVL(ms-1)
: Weibull birikPLúRODVÕOÕNIRQN
:HLEXOOGD÷ÕOÕPIRQNVL\RQX
: Log-QRUPDOGD÷ÕOÕPIRQNVL\RQX
: Gamma fonksiyonu
:HLEXOOúHNLOSDUDPHWUHVL
7RSODPGDWDVD\ÕVÕ
:HLEXOOGD÷ÕOÕPÕLoLQRUWDODPDJo
\R÷XQOX÷X(Wm-2)
: Log-normal GD÷ÕOÕPÕLoLQRUW. Jo
\R÷XQOX÷XWm-2)
2UWU]JDUJFSRWDQVL\HOL(W)
+DYDQÕQ\R÷XQOX÷XNJm-3)
: Standart sapma (ms-1)
5]JDUKÕ]Õ(ms-1)
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Kaynaklar
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,,<HQLOHQHELOLU (QHUML .D\QDNODUÕ 6HPSR]\XPX,
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hUHWLPLQH 8\JXODQDELOLUOL÷L Doktora Tezi,
2VPDQJD]L hQLYHUVLWHVL )HQ %LOLPOHUL (QVWLWV
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hONH $ %DUDQ 7 (2005) .|SUoD\ \ÕOOÕN DNÕP
YHULOHULQH X\JXQ RODVÕOÕN GD÷ÕOÕP fonksiyonu ve
NXUDNOÕN DQDOL]L $QWDO\D <|UHVL øQúDDW
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