1/5/2017 Increasing supply of forest biomass for bioeconomy and carbon balance of Finnish forests Antti Asikainen, professor Climate Policy and Land Use The potential of well-managed boreal forests and farm land 10. Januray 2017, European Parliament, Brussels © Natural Resources Institute Finland Water supply Bioeconomy services Bioenergy Agriculture and food industry National economy 63 bill. € Bioeconomy product Forest-based bioeconomy 43 billion €/a Wood-based products © Natural Resources Institute Finland 1 1/5/2017 What can we make out of 10 mill. m3 of wood? • Wood-based bioeconomy produces c.a. 43 bill. €/year in the Finnish national economy today • This is reached by using c.a.80 mill. m3 wood annually • We plan to increase annual wood use by 10 million m3 to boost the bio-based sector • This will increase the economic product by 5.4 bill. € annually • Increasing wood use will reduce the carbon sink for 2020-2030, but the sink will recover in 2040’s 3 5.1.2017 Net carbon sink of Finnish forests 0 -10 milj. t CO2 ekv. -20 -30 -40 -50 AFF+FL 4 SK2 2050 2048 2046 2044 2042 2040 2038 2036 2034 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 -60 EU-FL 5.1.2017 2 1/5/2017 Forest growth, wood use of industry and import define the net carbon sink • Net carbon sink = -26,59 * - 0.841*annual increment - 2.058 * wood import + 1.387*wood harvest – Net carbon sink: MtCO2eq. – Annual increment, wood import, wood harvest: Mm3 – R2=0.76 5 5.1.2017 Import of roundwood, 1000 m3 Volume of imported wood has halved since mid 2000’s Year 3 1/5/2017 Volume of imported wood has halved since mid 2000’s Recovering construction market in EU and Japan increase the wood demand from Finland Planed wood Pine sawn timber Spruce sawn timber Average export price Export price of pine Export price of spruce 4 1/5/2017 Carbon sink in Finland is declining and in Sweden increasing Regeneration of mature forests results climate benefits in the long run 10 Source: Kolström 2016 5.1.2017 5 1/5/2017 True reference scenarios for not using wood Natural disturbances lead to massive CO2 discharges from European forests Seidl et al 2014 12 5.1.2017 6 1/5/2017 Concluding remarks • Finnish forests continue to accumulate carbon • Growing bioeconomy needs more wood • Setting of the reference level for LULUCF – Market cycles of industry have a great impact – Should encourage active forest management • Maintaining of a net carbon sink in the forest in the long run is mission impossible! • Active forest management and viable bioeconomy will lead to the highest climate benefits in the long run 13 5.1.2017 LULUCF reference level should be fair and motivating for active forest management -> stable carbon sink and growing biomass supply for bioeconomy 7
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