Policy questions to be addressed and structures of IMACLIM-CHINA Wang Yu Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy Tsinghua University 29 January 2015 • Updated energy and climate polices • Policies questions to be addressed • Structure of IMACLIM-CHINA 2 An updated energy and climate policies Environment pollution Energy security Climate change Updated policies Industrial structure adjustment Energy conservation & efficiency Energy structure optimizing Forest carbon sink increasing China’s Economic Growth & Energy Consumption 1991~1995 1996~2000 2001~2005 2006~2010 2011~2013 GDP annual growth 11.9% 8.7% 9.9% 11.3% 8.2% Energy consumption increase 5.9% 2.1% 10.3% 6.6% 4.9% Decouple of energy consumption and economic growth 1000 Energy consumption (1990=100) 900 GDP (1990=100) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 0 Environmental pollution in China Water resources Land resources Ecological …… Air pollution! PM2.5 concentration of 28th Nov, 2014 Climate change, pressure from international community CO2 emission in China (million ton) 10000 8000 Energy structure 100% 26.7% of total global CO2 emission 6000 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 4000 40% 30% 2000 20% 10% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 0 Data source: IEA & China Statistic Yearbook 2014 • China is the biggest CO2 emitter of the world. • Coal dominated energy system results in higher CO2 emission. An update energy and climate policies Environment pollution Energy security Climate change Updated policies Industrial structure adjustment Energy conservation & efficiency Energy structure optimizing Forest carbon sink increasing Industrial structure adjustment Closedown • Small mine • Small coal-fired power plants • Backward production capacity (19 sectors, including steel, iron, flat glass, cement, coke…) New industries • Low carbon technology innovation • 106 million RMB • 54 pilot projects • New energy vehicles • New energy manufacturers • Producer service industry The share of industry increase 1% → 600 million ton of additional CO2 emission The share of service increase 1% → 300 million ton of CO2 mitigation Energy conservation and efficiency improving Management & evaluation Objective responsibility system – provincial governments Energy audit system – new projects in heavy energy consumption, building Energy intensity decreased by 9% Energy conservation projects energy - saving technical renovation ——2.56 billion RMB in 2013; 5.6 million tce conservation Energy performance contracting ——280 million RMB; 1.16 million tce in 2013 compared with 2010 350 million tce coal conservation Energy standards 840 million ton of CO2 mitigation 48 energy conservation standards were issued in 2013 Promoting energy-saving technologies and products State Key Energy-Efficient Technology Promotion Catalogues Energy saving and low-carbon technologies to promote the achievements list released Energy conservation and efficiency improving Intensity target • The energy intensity of GDP decrease 40~45% in 2020 compared with 2005 level Absolute target (2020) • Total primary energy consumption ＜4.8 billion tce • Total coal consumption ＜4.2 billion ton • Annual growth rate of energy consumption ＜ 3.5% Energy structure optimizing Coal consumption control Targets by 2020: The share of coal in primary energy ＜ 62% More than 60% of coal used for electricity generation New entries Current plants • Scale: 600 or 1000 MW ultra supercritical coal combustion technologies • Efficiency: coal consumption ＜300 gce/kWh • Emission: smoke, SO2, NOX emission concentration less than 10, 35, 50 μg/m3 in eastern provinces • Closedown backward efficiency turbines (＜50 MW) • Closedown turbines whose pollutants emission can’t meet environmental standards • Phase out 100 GW of backward efficient turbines by 2020 China-U.S. Joint Announcement on Climate Change • China intends to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early – The roadmap to achieving the peaking of CO2 emissions? – The CO2 emissions level of peaking? – The effects of transform from BAU to low carbon development mode? • China intends to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030 – Renewable energy development potential and cost? – Cost increase/decrease of the whole energy system? – The contribution of non-fossil energy to CO2 mitigation? and the Actual Capacity Growth of RE Comparisons of Central Government Targets Objectives – Industrial competitiveness Would the climate policy increase the industrial production cost? Weaken the industrial competitiveness? Domestic context: carbon tax / ETS …… International context: global carbon market Which industry would suffer the most transition cost? GDP loss? Energy intensive industry? Industrial structure？ Would that be a chance for China’s low-carbon development? Transition cost? Industrial structure optimization? Import and export trade? Objectives – Distribution effect & Welfare effect How the climate policies would affect the residence’s welfare? Carbon tax / ETS …… Domestic context International context Which group of residence would be most heavily affected? Income levels Income gap Differentiated carbon tax Would the climate policy optimize energy consumption structure through changing residence life style? Purchase choices Transportation modes Thanks!
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