Forum designA5 vezija za print

21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
CROATIAN ENERGY SOCIETY
21. FORUM: DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ
21st FORUM: ENERGY DAY IN CROATIA
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine
– realnost ili utopija –
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050
– reality or utopia –
23. studenog 2012. / 23rd November 2012
Mala dvorana “Vatroslav Lisinski” / Small Hall “Vatroslav Lisinski”
Zagreb, Trg Stjepana Radića 4
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
1
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Izdavač / Publisher:
Hrvatsko energetsko društvo
Zagreb, Savska cesta 163
Priredili / Edit by:
Dr. sc. Goran Granić
Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić
Glavna i odgovorna urednica / Editor:
Dr.sc. Branka Jelavić
Pomoćnici glavne urednice / Assistants of the Editor:
Mr.sc. Sandra Antešević
Bruno Židov, mag.ing.mech.
Dizajn naslovnice / Cover design:
Martina Komerički Košarić, dipl.ing.
Pripremio za tisak / Prepress:
Darko Juričić, dipl.diz.
Lektura / Language editing:
Prof. Anita Filipović
Engleski prijevodi / English translation:
Bruno Židov, mag.ing.mech.
Tisak / Press:
AZP-Grafis
Samobor, Franjina 7
Autorska prava / Copyright:
Hrvatsko energetsko društvo
Zagreb, Savska cesta 163
Naklada / Edition:
250 primjeraka
Za sve navode u člancima odgovorni su isključivo autori.
Authors are responsible for all statements made in their articles.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
2
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
21. Forum
Sadržaj / Contents
PREDGOVOR / FOREWORD......................................................................................6
ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE ..................11
1.
Goran Granić ..............................................................................................13
2.
Reinhard Jellinek ........................................................................................14
3.
Paolo Blecich..............................................................................................15
4.
Bernard Franković ......................................................................................16
5.
Zoran Kordić ..............................................................................................17
6.
Ben Bartle ...................................................................................................18
7.
Robert Pašičko............................................................................................18
8.
Lin Herenčić ...............................................................................................19
9.
Sandra Vlašić ..............................................................................................20
10.
Neven Duić ................................................................................................21
11.
Dubravko Sabolić .......................................................................................22
12.
Bojan Baletić ..............................................................................................23
13.
Jakov Baleta ...............................................................................................24
14.
Tomislav Ćutić ...........................................................................................24
15.
Vladimir Potočnik ......................................................................................25
SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS ........................................................28
1.
Dr.sc. Goran Granić i suradnici: Razvoj energetskog sektora Republike Hrvatske do
2050. godine u uvjetima smanjenja emisije ugljikovog dioksida / Development of the
Croatian energy sector by 2050 in terms of reducing carbon dioxide emissions........ 29
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
3
21. Forum
2.
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Reinhard Jellinek: Pravila za ubrzavanje goriva, tehnologije i promjene ponašanja u
prometu - rezultati i uspjesi Austrian klima: aktiv mobil programa nakon prvih sedam
godina / Policies to accelerate fuel, technology & behavioural change in transport results and successes of the Austrian klima:aktiv mobil programme after the first
seven years ................................................................................................................. 31
3.
Peter Kaderjak: Dekarbonizacija mađarskog električnog i toplinskog sektora: što je
najmanje nemoguće? / Decarbonising the Hungarian electricity and heat sectors: what
is the least impossible? ............................................................................................... 34
4.
Paolo Blecich, Bernard Franković: Ususret budućnosti bez emisija CO2 / Towards a
CO2 – free future ........................................................................................................ 35
5.
Zoran Kordić, Robert Pašičko, Sandra Vlašić, Lin Herenčić, Ben Bartle: Izrada
Strategije nisko-ugljičnog razvoja Hrvatske / Making of Croatian low-emission
development strategy ................................................................................................. 37
6.
Neven Duić, Goran Krajačić, Tomislav Pukšec, Boris Ćosić, Tomislav Novosel,
Iva Ridjan: Iskorištavanje obnovljivih izvora energije, energetska učinkovitost i
smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova kao pokretač razvoja „zelene ekonomije” u
Hrvatskoj do 2050./ Renewable Energy Sources, Energy Efficiency and Reduction of
Greenhouse Gas Emissions as main sources of Development of „Green Economy“ in
Croatia until 2050 ...................................................................................................... 39
7.
Dubravko Sabolić: Ekonomska pitanja u vezi dekarbonizacije elektroenergetskog
sustava / Economic issues in power system decarbonization ..................................... 41
8.
Prof.dr.sc. Bojan Baletić, Prof.dr.sc. Mladen Josić, Velimir Tolić: Kampus
Borongaj: CO2 izazov za Sveučilište / Campus Borongaj: A CO2 challenge for the
University................................................................................................................... 43
9.
Tomislav Ćutić, Jakov Baleta, Josip Pasanec, Vladimir Soldo, Tonko Ćurko:
Smanjenje potrošnje električne energije i emisije CO2 sustava za pripremu potrošne
tople vode primjenom solarne dizalice topline s direktnim isparivanjem radne tvari /
Reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in domestic water heating by
means of direct expansion solar assisted heat pump .................................................. 45
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
4
21. Forum
10.
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Tomo Galić, Željko Tomšić: Virtualne elektrane kao model za konkurentnost malih
proizvođača i operatora virtualne elektrane na tržištima električne energije i plina /
Virtual power plants as a model for the competitiveness of small manufacturers and
operators of virtual power plants in markets for electricity and gas ........................... 47
11.
Vladimir Potočnik: Dekarbonizacija hrvatske energetike / Decarbonization of
croatian energy system ............................................................................................... 49
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
5
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
PREDGOVOR
U proteklih nekoliko godina poslovna, znanstvena i stručna javnost zaokupljena je
temom smanjenja emisija CO2 i drugih stakleničkih plinova, kao i tehničkim i
financijskim posljedicama na razvoj energetskog sustava. U sjeni neuspješnih
međunarodnih pregovora o mjerama koje trebaju poduzeti sve članice međunarodne
zajednice, Europska unija utvrđuje svoje ciljeve koji će biti meritorni i za Hrvatsku
kao buduću članicu EU-a.
Ciljevi EU-a do 2020. godine, poznati po marketinškoj poruci 20/20/20%, u određenoj
mjeri zamagljuju razinu promjena u energetskom sektoru koje bi trebalo provesti, ako
bi se postavili ciljevi smanjenja CO2 do 2050. godine u iznosu od najmanje 80 posto i
u elektroenergetici od 95 posto. Polazni ciljevi energetske politike za 2020. godinu ne
ukazuju na dramatičnost promjena u energetskom sektoru za ostvarivanje ciljeva do
2050. godine. Iz tog razloga je NUŽNO što prije strateški sagledati razdoblje do 2050.
godine, kako bi se mogla postaviti cjelovita gospodarska, znanstvena i energetska
politika svake pojedine zemlje. Izbor teme ovogodišnjeg Foruma imao je cilj
potaknuti raspravu o strateškim ciljevima za 2050. godinu te ukazati na nužnost izrade
strateških dokumenata energetskog razvoja.
Na stručnim skupovima energetske zajednice Europe u posljednje vrijeme zamijećen
je nesklad između političkih ciljeva i sagledavanja energetskih stručnjaka o
mogućnostima i promjenama u energetskom sektoru. Pitanja integracije obnovljivih
izvora, tehničko-tehnoloških i troškovnih, zaokuplja pozornost operatora prijenosnih
sustava i nadležnih ministarstava. S povećanjem udjela rastu i problemi.
Razina integracije obnovljivih izvora u uskoj je vezi s mogućnostima i troškovima
proizvodnje energije u klasičnim elektranama, fosilnim ili nuklearnim, što može loše
utjecati na realizaciju cijelog projekta smanjenja CO2, ako se iz bilo kojih razloga
onemogući izgradnja ili rad zamjenskih kapaciteta.
Također u uskoj vezi je i tema odnosa povlaštene proizvodnje iz obnovljivih izvora i
ostalog dijela tržišta električne energije. Već sada je vidljivo da je povlaštenost
dugoročno neodrživa i da se trebaju tražiti tržišni mehanizmi koji će osigurati
samoregulirajuće odnose na ekonomskim principima, uključujući i cijenu troškova za
zaštitu okoliša i očuvanje klime.
Pojedinačni problemi u zemljama članicama EU-a pokazuju da to nije moguće riješiti
na nacionalnoj razini, već da se ono treba tražiti na razini EU-a ili cijele Europe.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
6
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Vjerujem da će Forum potaknuti stručne rasprave koje će pomoći u razumijevanju
vremena koje dolazi, a jednako tako i ukazati na važnost izrade strateških dokumenata
razvoja energetskog sektora do 2050. godine.
Predsjednik Hrvatskog energetskog društva,
Dr.sc. Goran Granić
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
7
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
FOREWORD
In the past few years, business, scientific and professional community is occupied
with the theme of reducing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, features,
technical and financial consequences on the development of the energy system. In the
shadow of failed international negotiations on measures, which should be taken by all
members of the international community, the European Union sets its goals, which
will be merit for Croatia as a future member of the EU.
The objectives of the EU by the year 2020, well known by the marketing message
20/20/20%, to some extent obscures the level of changes in the energy sector, which
should be obtained, if the goal of reducing CO2 emissions by the year 2050 in an
amount of at least 80% and in the power sector in an amount of 95% would be set.
Transient energy policy objectives for the year 2020 do not indicate the dramatic
change in the energy sector to meet the goals in the year 2050. For this reason it is
necessary, as soon as possible, strategic perceive the period until the year 2050, in
order to set up a complete economic, scientific and energy policies in each country.
The choice of this year's Forum theme, have the aim of encouraging the debate on the
strategic objectives for the year 2050, and to approach to the elaboration of a strategic
document energy development as soon as possible.
At professional conferences in the energy community in the Europe, recently have
been shown that there is a mismatch between political goals and views of energy
experts on the opportunities and changes in the energy sector. Questions of integration
of renewable energy sources, technical and technological and cost, are attracting the
attention of transmission system operators and the competent ministries. With
increasing of a share, the problems grow.
The level of integration of renewable energy sources is highly correlated with the
capabilities and costs of producing energy in conventional power plants, fossil or
nuclear, which can make the entire project of reducing the CO2 less feasible, if for any
reason, the construction or operation of alternative capacity is prevented.
Also, closely related is the theme of privileged relations of production from renewable
sources and the rest of the electricity market. It is already apparent that the privilege is
long term unsustainable and that they should seek mechanisms to ensure selfregulating relations on economic principles, including the price of the cost of
protecting the environment and preserving the environment.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
8
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Individual problems in the EU member states shows that it is not possible to find the
solution at the national level, but that a solution should be sought at the level of the
EU or the whole Europe.
I believe that the Forum will encourage professional debate that will help in
understanding the future, but equally in the development of strategic documents for
the development of the energy sector by the year 2050.
Chairman of the Croatian Energy Society,
Goran Granić, PhD
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
9
21. Forum
21st Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
10
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM
VITAE
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
11
21. Forum
21st Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
12
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Goran Granić
Born: 18 April 1950 in Baška Voda, Republic of Croatia
Education:
B.Sc. (Eng.) in 1972, M.Sc. (Eng.) in 1976 and Ph.D. in
1979; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing,
University of Zagreb.
Employment:
Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Director (1994 – 2000 and
2004 – present),
Government of the Republic of Croatia, Deputy Prime
Minister (2000 – 2003),
Croatian Electric Utility Company, General Manager (1990 – 1991),
Union of Croatian Electric Utilities, Member of the Management Board (1987 –
1990),
Other:
Member of Parliament of the Republic of Croatia since 1992, Vice-President of
Parliament (1995);
More than 160 publications in the field of energy sector planning;
President of the Croatian Energy Society and Member of the other expert
organizations;
Associate member and Secretary-General of the HATZ (Croatian Technical
Academy). Institute for the Electric Industry (1973 – 1987 and 1991 – 1994).
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
13
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
21. Forum
Reinhard Jellinek
Reinhard Jellinek has been with Austrian Energy Agency
for 14 years and is mainly working in the fields of
consumer behaviour and all transport related issues. He is
currently coordinating the Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE)
project
ECOWILL
(Ecodriving
–
Widespread
Implementation for Learners and Licensed Drivers) with 15
partners of 13 European countries. Mr Jellinek is also
involved in the Austrian Ecodriving initiative. He has been
project manager of the IEE-projects FLEAT (Fleet Environmental Action and
assessment) and MADEGASCAR (Market development for Gas Driven Cars) and
several other projects aiming on behavioural changes. Since 2003 he has been the
project manager of phases VIII – XI of the IEE project " Monitoring of EU and
national energy efficiency targets (ODYSSEE-MURE)". In addition to the
management of various projects at national level, he has been involved in the
klima:aktiv mobil programme since 2007. Furthermore, he acted as a delegate to the
inter-ministerial working group for the national implementation plan for e-mobility in
Austria. Mr Jellinek holds a master's degree in Psychology from the University of
Vienna.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
14
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Paolo Blecich
Paolo Blecich (M.Eng.) is employed as a research assistant
at the Institute for Thermodynamics and Energy at the
Technical University of Rijeka. During university studies
he was awarded with the Dean's Award four times and
with one Rector's Award for achievement in the study. He
was also awarded with the Annual Prize (2009) of
Croatian Energy Association for notable achievements in
the area of energy.
His research work is focused on the study of heat transfer, mass transfer and heat
exchangers using numerical methods and laboratory measurements of renewable
energy sources, with a special interest in the application of solar energy and
environmental protection. Within postgraduate studies he spent a summer semester in
the years 2011/2012 at the Institute of Technology construction - National Research
Council (ITC-CNR) in Padua, Italy. At the Faculty of Engineering, University of
Rijeka he holds exercises at the undergraduate and graduate studies in the courses:
Thermodynamics 1, Thermodynamics 2, Thermodynamics of mixtures, heat
exchangers, laboratory exercises. He is the author or co-author of 17 scientific and
professional papers of which 2 papers published in CC journals.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
15
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Bernard Franković
Bernard Franković (born in 1946 in Rijeka), graduated in
year
1971
Mechanical Engineering
at Faculty of
Engineering Rijeka. He earned his master's degree in year
1978 at the Faculty of Engineering and Naval Architecture,
University of Zagreb. His Ph.D. these, in the field of
engineering, was defended at the same University in year
1990. Research for a doctoral dissertation he has completed as a Fulbright scholar at
the City University of New York, USA. Since 1972 he is continuously employed by
the Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka. Over many years of teaching he was
elected to scientific assistant professor, associate professor and full professor, in 2003
was elected as a full professor with tenure. He was Dean at the Faculty of Engineering
in Rijeka in two terms. Nowadays, he performs duties at the head of Institute for
Thermodynamics and Energy. The principal areas of his interest are thermodynamics,
energy, renewable energy and thermotechnical and thermal power systems. He was
also a mentor to several doctoral dissertations, master's degrees and graduate thesis.
He was a contributor to five, and the leader of eleven scientific research projects. He
has published one hundred and fifty scientific papers, authored several technical
studies and a number of projects (see CROSBI). Since 1996 he organizes the
international conference on Energy and the Environment in Opatija and he edits
abstract collection of the conference. He was President of the Organizing Committee
of the European conference on solar energy EuroSun 2012. He is a member of several
national and international scientific and professional organizations, associations and
bodies. He is a member of the Scientific Council of Maritime Academy and the
Scientific Council for Energy Academy and a regular member of the Croatian
Academy of Engineering. He is the President of the International Solar Energy
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
16
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Society, ISES Europe (2011-2013), Freiburg. He is a member of the International
Institute of Refrigeration, Paris, and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating
and Air-conditioning, Atlanta. Since year 2005 he is the President of the Croatian
shipbuilding and mechanical Engineers Association, and was president of the Croatian
Chamber of Architects and Engineers. He is editor of scientific journal Engineering.
For scientific work he has received several awards and honors, among which stand out
here: Annual Award of the City of Rijeka (1999), Annual Award Hrvoje Požar (2000),
Annual National Award for Science (2001) And Rikard Podhorsky Award (2008). He
received several awards for teaching and professional work.
Zoran Kordić
Zoran Kordić obtained a Diploma in Electrical
Engineering in 2011 from University of Zagreb. Until
2011 he worked in Municipality of Ivanic-Grad as junior
expert for energy efficiency issues. From January 2012
he is working in United Nations Development
Programme as Programme Assistant. Now days he is
coordinating the project of preparation of Low-Emission
Development Strategy for Croatia in Ministry of
Environmental and Nature Protection.
Organisation: United Nations Development Programme
Staff category: Programme Assistant
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
17
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Ben Bartle
Ben Bartle obtained Master of Science degree with
honours (Environmental Management and Economics)
from University of Auckland in 2011. His topic
specialized in a market based emissions trading
instrument to achieve emissions management through
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
in the New Zealand agricultural sector. He worked as
Key Account Manager and Carbon Broker in Australia.
Since April 2012 he is engaged with UNDP Croatia.
Robert Pašičko
Robert Pašičko obtained a Diploma in Electrical
Engineering in 2003 and Diploma in Management in
2008, both from University of Zagreb. Until 2009 he
worked as researcher at Department of Power Systems
on Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing in
Zagreb, with research focus on modeling emission
trading impacts and on renewable energy sources
(specifically biomass and solar thermal) and energy
efficiency in buildings sector. He is one of the authors of the Croatian Energy
Strategy and was active in several projects on carbon strategies, emission trading,
electrical sector modeling and renewable energy sources. He was coordinating
activities of Croatian partner in IEE project SOLCAMP (Solar Energy Use in
Camping Sites), in FP7 project CEUBIOM (Classification of European Biomass
Potential for Bioenergy Using Terrestrial and Earth Observations) and currently
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
18
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
works on FP7 project CLIMRUN (Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean
region Responding to users need). He is finishing his PhD thesis on emission trading
impact on a power system under educational programme lead by Norwegian
University of Science and Technology.
Organisation: United Nations Development Programme
Staff category: Senior Expert
Lin Herenčić
Lin Herenčić obtained a Diploma in Electrical
Engineering in 2011 and obtained Master of science
degree in Economics in 2012 both from University
of Zagreb. In 2012 he worked shortly in United
Nations Development Programme on the project of
preparation
of
Low-Emission
Development
Strategy. He analysed influence of low carbon
development on society, economy and environment
indicators. He is currently employed in HEP Trade Group.
Organisation: Hrvatska Elektroprivreda (HEP Group)
Staff category: Young expert
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
19
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Sandra Vlašić
Sandra Vlašić obtained a Diploma of BiologyEcology Engineer in 1995 from University of Zagreb
and a Master of Science degree in Environmental
Economics, Policy and Risk in 2002 from HeriotWatt University Edinburgh (UK). Since 1996 she
works in the sector of international assistance
organisations (Open Society Institute, Regional
Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) and USAID), while in
2003 she is engaged with UNDP Croatia as the Environment Programme Officer. For
the past 15 years she has been working in the field of environment and natural
resources management with cross-sectoral and international teams. Since 2003 she is
responsible for strategic planning, development and management of the environment
portfolio of UNDP in Croatia which gradually grew to its current volume of $4-5
million in annual delivery over a number of years. Portfolio covers themes of energy
efficiency, systematic energy management in public sector, sustainable coastal
development and biodiversity conservation, with a growing nexus of cross-sectoral
cooperation aimed at low-carbon and sustainable local and regional development.
UNDP Croatia environment portfolio has been recognised in the SEE region as a
show-case programme and there are several requests from other countries for
replication, both in energy and in coastal management sector.
Organisation: United Nations Development Programme
Staff category: Senior Expert
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
20
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
21. Forum
Neven Duić
Prof. dr. sc. Neven Duić is a full professor at the Power
Engineering and Energy Management Chair at the
Department of Energy, Power Engineering and
Environment, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and
Naval Architecture.
He is Croatian national coordinator for researchers
mobility
at
Programmes,
the Agency
President
for
Mobility
and
EU
of
a
Committee
for
International projects at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval
Architecture, Co-ordinator of Croatian participation of 18 international scientific
research projects.
Prof. Neven Duić published over 150 research papers, of which 45 in journals (of
which 27 in journals referred in SCI) and 5 in books. He was cited 350 times in
Scopus and 203 times in WoS. He gave more than 50 invited and keynote lectures.
He has organised several of the series of conferences on Sustainable Development
of Energy, Water and Environment Systems and was a member of organising,
scientific and programming committees of more than 20 research conferences.
His main areas of interests are Energy policy and planning, energy economics,
sustainable development policy and resource planning, climate change mitigation,
combustion engineering and modelling, research and innovation policy.
Full CV: http://powerlab.fsb.hr/nduic/
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
21
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Dubravko Sabolić
Dubravko Sabolić (born in 1969 in Zagreb, Croatia)
obtained his Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering and
his M.S. degree in economics from the University of
Zagreb, Croatia, in 2004 and 2007, respectively.
Since July 1994 he has been working for the Croatian
Electricity Utility (HEP). From April 2007 to June 2012
he was the C.E.O. of the Croatian TSO (HEP-TSO, Llc.).
Now he works as an Assistant Director in the
Development and Institutional Affairs Department of the same company. From
December 2001 to September 2004 he served as a Commissioner at the Croatian
regulatory authority for telecoms (Telecommunications Council). From 2006 to 2011
he has been a member of Working groups for preparation of negotiations on Croatia's
accession to the EU in two Chapters: Information society and media, and Energy.
He is also an Assistant Professor at the University of Zagreb, Croatia, where he
teaches Engineering Economics for undergraduate students of electrical engineering
and computing. He also teaches Electricity Markets at the University of Osijek,
Croatia, for graduate students of electrical engineering.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
22
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
21. Forum
Bojan Baletić
Prof.dr.sc. Bojan Baletić (born 1957, Šibenik,
Croatia) is a full professor at the Faculty of
Architecture, University of Zagreb. Since year 2006
he is a vice rector for development and regional
planning at the University of Zagreb. Since year 1997
he is a member of the Croatian Academy of
Engineering.
Bojan Baletić has published over 60 scientific papers, including 21 in international
conferences. He has participated in a total of 47 international and national meetings.
In the period since 1990 by 2005 he was a leader or member of the scientific
committee of 14 scientific and professional meetings. He was editor of the abstract
collection at 6 conferences. He was the leader of four international projects within
TEMPUS, ALIS - link and USAIDALO programs, and leader of seven local
research projects. He has reviewed scientific publications, proceedings,
international conferences and vocational curriculum. He delivered 25 invited
lectures
at
national
and
international
conferences
and
forums.
He is the founder and president of CAD section CAA (1989-1996) and international
scientific meetings CAD Forum (1989-1996) and MediaScape (1993-1995). He is a
member (or was) of many associations (DAZ, CAA, Ecovast ZUIK, CCC, NGO,
ECAADE, CROSS, DSE).
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
23
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
21. Forum
Jakov Baleta
Jakov Baleta was born on 12.01.1989 in Sisak.
Elementary and secondary school he has attend in
Sisak, after which he has enrolled the Faculty of
Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture,
University of Zagreb. He has finished Thermal
engineering undergraduate studies with highest
honor (summa cum laude), and for outstanding achievement during the study was
awarded with the medal of the Faculty. Areas of his research are; rational use of
energy in buildings and industry, with a focus on heat pumps, energy analysis of
HVAC systems, and the development of mathematical models of computational
fluid dynamics problems in the treatment of exhaust gases of internal combustion
engines. Jakov Baleta is currently a graduate student, studying mechanical
engineering.
Tomislav Ćutić
Tomislav Ćutić, born in 1989 in Zagreb, is a final
year graduate student in mechanical engineering
(module:
power
specialization:
University
of
and
applied
Zagreb,
process
engineering,
thermodynamics)
Faculty
of
at
the
Mechanical
Engineering and Naval Architecture. In addition, he
obtained his summa cum laude Bachelor´s degree from the same University
graduating in 2011 with the highest GPA in his class. During his studies, he served
as a student assistant (demonstrator) at the Department of Technical Mechanics
(2008-2010) and at the Department of Technical Thermodynamics, Thermal and
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
24
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Process Engineering (2009-2012). He is a co-author of two scientific papers
published (to be published) in proceedings of international conferences. He was
awarded several student achievement awards (Davorin Bazjanac prize delivered by
the Faculty (2008 and 2009), Hrvoje Požar annual student award delivered by
Croatian Energy Association (2011) and Medal of the Faculty in 2011) as well as a
couple of scholarships which enabled him to take part in summer schools abroad: in
Germany (2010), Finland (2011) and Austria (2012). He also received a full Supera
Business Academy scholarship (tuition fee waiver) for participation in a Sales
Management one-year course. He is currently living in Freiburg, Germany, working
at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE with the aim of
completing his master thesis in the area of heat pump technology.
Vladimir Potočnik
Born in Travnik in 1936. In 1960 graduated from the
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval
Architecture in Zagreb, where he won a master’s
degree in 1975. He speaks English, German, French
and Russian language.
From 1960 to 2001 he was employed with
Elektroprojekt Zagreb, and participated in and lead
more than one hundred projects in Croatia (wastefired CHP Plant Zagreb, Combined Thermal Power Plant Jertovac, CHP Zagreb,
Nuclear Power Plant Prevlaka, etc.) and abroad (Diesel-operated power plant
Lesvos Greece, Thermal Power Plant Kandla India, Hydro Power Plant Martinsville
USA, Thermal Power Plant AL Shemal Iraq, Nuclear Power Plant Krško Slovenija,
etc.). He initiated a number of projects in Croatia (revitalisation of thermal power
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
25
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
plants, cogenerations, renewable energy sources, etc.). He participates in defining
waste management strategy and legislation in Croatia, drawing up the National
Energy Program BIOEN and the First National Communication of the Republic of
Croatia to the UNFCCC. He is active in the Committee for Environmental Impact
Assessment.
Published more than 80 papers in professional publications and proceedings of the
meetings. Author of two books:
•
Obrada komunalnog otpada – Svjetska iskustva, 1997. (Municipal Waste
Treatment – Global Experience)
•
Obnovljivi izvori energije i zaštita okoliša u Hrvatskoj, 2002. (Renewable
Energy Sources and Environmental Protection in Croatia)
Translated the book: J.Skitt, 1000 Terms of Waste Management, 1995.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
26
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
27
21. Forum
21st Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
28
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Dr.sc. Goran Granić, mr.sc. Damir Pešut, mr.sc. Mario Tot, mr.sc. Željko Jurić,
Laszlo Horvath, Andro Bačan, Biljana Kulišić, dr.sc. Goran Majstorović
Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar
RAZVOJ ENERGETSKOG SEKTORA REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE DO 2050.
GODINE U UVJETIMA SMANJENJA EMISIJE UGLJIKOVOG DIOKSIDA
Sažetak
U radu je analizirano pitanje: Je li moguće i s kojim posljedicama ostvariti energetski
razvoj uz istovremeno smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine? Pri tome
se ne misli samo na očekivanu posljedicu rasta troškova, već i na moguće poželjne
utjecaje energetskog sektora na tehnološki razvoj, razvoj znanosti, gospodarstva i
povećanje dodane vrijednosti.
Za potrebe ovog rada modeliran je i simuliran razvoj energetskog sektora do 2050.
godine upotrebom dva modela za procjenu energetskih sustava:
• Model za analizu potrošnje energije (MAED – Model for Energy System
Analysis1)
• Model za optimiranje sustava opskrbe energijom (MESSAGE – Model for Energy
Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts2).
MESSAGE koristi rezultate MAED modela kao ulazne pretpostavke i podatke.
Mogućnosti razvoja u sektorima industrija, kućanstvo, usluge i promet modelirane su
simulacijski, tj. razmatrane su moguće putanje razvoja kako bi se približno dostigli
ciljevi sektorskog smanjenja emisije CO2 u skladu s prethodno opisanim ciljevima koji
se razmatraju na razini EU-a.
Prosječni trošak proizvodnje električne energije u 2050. godini povećava se za skoro
140 posto u odnosu na 2015. godinu.
Odgovor glasi: Smanjenje emisija CO2 u Hrvatskoj za ukupno 80 posto, a u
elektroenergetskom sektoru i do 95 posto, je moguće s tehničkog i tehnološkog
aspekta, ali uz velike financijske posljedice i značajne promjene u energetskom
sektoru, kojima trebaju prethoditi promjene u razvoju znanosti i industrije.
1
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2), Computer Manual Series 18, International Atomic
Energy Agency, 2006
2
MESSAGE – Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts,
User Manual, International Atomic Energy Agency, June 2007
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
29
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CROATIAN ENERGY SECTOR BY 2050 IN
TERMS OF REDUCING CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
Abstract
The paper analyzes the question: is it possible to achieve and what would be the
consequences of energy development while reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent by
year 2050? Thereby, the growth of costs is not the only expected consequence, but
there are also desirable and possible impacts of the energy sector on technological
development, science, the economy and increasing the added value.
In paper, the development of the energy sector by 2050 is modeled and simulated
using two models for the evaluation of the energy systems:
•
model for the analysis of energy consumption (MAED – Model for Energy
3
System Analysis )
• model for optimization of energy supply systems (MESSAGE – Model for
Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental
4
Impacts )
MESSAGE use the results of MAED model as input assumptions and data.
Development opportunities in the sectors of industry, households, services and
transport were modeled in the simulation, i.e. possible trajectories of development
were considered, in order to achieve the objectives of the sectoral reducing of CO2
emissions in line with the stated objectives which are discussed at the EU level.
The average cost of electricity production in year 2050 will increase by nearly 140
percent compared to the year 2015.
The answer is: the reduction of CO2 emissions in Croatia by 80% in total and by 95%
in the power sector is possible from a technical and technological point of view, but
with the high financial impact and significant changes in the energy sector, to which
should precede changes in scientific and industrial development.
3
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED-2), Computer Manual Series 18, International Atomic
Energy Agency, 2006
4
MESSAGE – Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts,
User Manual, International Atomic Energy Agency, June 2007
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
30
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Reinhard Jellinek
Austrian Energy Agency
POLITIKA POTICANJA RAZVOJA TEHNOLOGIJE, GORIVA I
PROMJENE PONAŠANJA U PROMETU – REZULTATI I USPJESI
PROGRAMA AUSTRIAN KLIMA: AKTIV MOBIL PROGRAMA
NAKON PRVIH SEDAM GODINA
Sažetak
Postoji veliki broj koncepata i strategija na gotovo svim razinama vlasti za smanjenje
emisija ugljikovog dioksida i poticanje energetske učinkovitosti u prometu.
Prilagođavanje nacionalnog i regionalnog zakonodavstva ovih strategija obično traje
dugo, što finalno rezultira s velikim gubitkom dragocjenog vremena. Nadalje, neke od
utvrđenih mjera nikada neće naići na potrebnu "političku volju" za provedbu.
Kako bi premostili taj problem Austrijsko ministarstvo okoliša, podržano od strane
Austrijske agencije za energiju, predstavilo je 2005. godine akcijski program
„Austrian Klima“, kondenzirajući sve takozvane "meke" i "dobrovoljne" mjere u
prometu ("upravljanje mobilnošću"), koje ne moraju nužno čekati zakonodavstvo ili
specifične administrativne okvire.
U tom sveobuhvatnom pristupu – program ciljano nije namijenjen samo prijevozu već
su u njega uključene i zgrade, obnovljivi izvori energije i energetske uštede - i po
svojim učincima u pogledu smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova, klima: aktiv, a
posebno klima: aktiv mobil jedinstvena je u Europi.
Klima:aktiv mobil aktivnosti:
•
•
•
•
•
besplatni program savjetovanja koji obuhvaća specifične ciljne skupine
(tvrtke, gradovi i općine, projektanti nekretnina, škole i mladež, turizam)
financijska potpora programa s 51 mil. € od 2007. godine za mjere
upravljanja mobilnošću, brze konverzije na tehnologije s niskom razinom
ugljika, poslovnih putnih planova i sl.
EcoDriving program obuke sa, do sada, 20.000 uvježbanih i educiranih
vozača o pametnom stilu vožnje
raširena kampanja za podizanje svijesti
oko 2.900 klima: aktiv mobil partnera koji obavljaju provedbu mjera za
održivi promet svim ciljnim skupinama.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
31
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Spomenutim aktivnostima smanjuje se više od 530.000 tona emisija CO2 svake
godine, otvori se ili se sačuva 4.300 „zelenih radnih mjesta“ u prometu te se induciraju
„zelene“ investicije poduzeća i uprava koje su za 7 do 8 puta uvećane u odnosu na
fundamentalna sredstva.
Klima:aktiv mobil jedan je od glavnih pokretača u Austriji za ubrzani razvoj
tehnologije, goriva i promjene ponašanja u prometu s omjerom troškovi/korist znatno
povoljnijim nego je to slučaj u većini infrastrukturnih ulaganja.
POLICIES TO ACCELERATE FUEL, TECHNOLOGY & BEHAVIOURAL
CHANGE IN TRANSPORT – RESULTS AND SUCCESSES OF THE
AUSTRIAN KLIMA:AKTIV MOBIL PROGRAMME AFTER THE
FIRST SEVEN YEARS
Abstract
There is plenty of concepts and strategies on almost all administrative levels to reduce
carbon emissions and boost energy efficiency in transport.
But it usually takes a long time to adapt national and regional legislation to these
strategies with considerable loss of valuable time. Furthermore some of the defined
measures will never find the necessary “political will” for implementation.
To bridge this gap Austria’s Environmental ministry supported by the Austrian Energy
Agency, got into action 2005 and set up an action programme, condensing all so
called “soft” and “voluntary” measures in transport (“mobility management”), that do
not necessarily need to wait for legislation or specific administrative framework
conditions.
In its comprehensive approach – not only transport is targeted, but also buildings,
renewables and energy saving – and also in its effects regarding the reduction of GHG
emissions, klima:aktiv and especially klima:aktiv mobil seems to be one-of-a-kind in
Europe.
Klima:aktiv mobil set-up:
•
•
free-of-charge consulting programmes addressing specific target groups
(companies, cites & municipalities, real estate developers, schools & youth,
tourism)
a financial support programme with 51 Mio € since 2007 for mobility
management measures, fleet conversions to low-carbon technologies, work
travel plans etc.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
32
21. Forum
•
•
•
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
an EcoDriving training programme with up to now 20,000 trainees and
educating all novice drivers in Austria in a smart driving style
a broad awareness raising campaign
about 2,900 klima:aktiv mobil partners among the target groups
implementing sustainable transport measures
and therewith reduces more than 530,000 tons of CO2 emissions every year, created or
saved 4300 “green jobs” in transport and induced “green” investments by companies
and administrations 7 to 8 times higher as the funding.
Klima:aktiv mobil is one of the main drivers in Austria to accelerate fuel, technology
& behavioural change in transport and shows a cost/benefit ratio much better than
most infrastructure investments.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
33
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Peter Kaderjak
REKK: Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research
Corvinus University of Budapest
DEKARBONIZACIJA MAĐARSKOG SEKTORA ELEKTRIČNE I
TOPLINSKE ENERGIJE: ŠTO JE NAJMANJE NEMOGUĆE?
Sažetak
U radu je obuhvaćena problematika dekarbonizacije, tj. dan je izvještaj o ekonomskoj
procjeni dekarbonizacijskih scenarija mađarskog sektora električne i toplinske
energije do 2050. godine. Procjena se temelji na ekonomskom modeliranju koje
podrazumijeva širenje primjene postojećih tehnologija. Rezultati upućuju na to da je, u
slučaju Mađarske, mogućnost smanjenja CO2 u sektoru toplinske energije jeftinije i
realnije rješenje za dekarbonizaciju. U slučaju sektora električne energije, vizijski
predviđena dekarbonizacija od 90 do 95 posto (Commisssion's 2050 vision), nije
izvediva bez masovne primjene CCS tehnologije ili bez novih tehnologija.
DECARBONISING THE HUNGARIAN ELECTRICITY AND HEAT
SECTORS: WHAT IS THE LEAST IMPOSSIBLE?
Abstract
The presentation will report on an economic assessment of decarbonisation scenarios
for the Hungarian electricity and heat sectors by 2050. The assessment is based on
economic modeling that assumes an expanding application of existing technologies.
The results suggest that CO2 abatement in the heat sector might be a cheaper and more
realistic option for decarbonisation in the Hungarian case. With regard to the
electricity sector, decarbonisation foreseen in the Commission's 2050 vision (90-95%)
is not feasible without a massive application of CCS technology or without a nonforeseeable technology breakthrough.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
34
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Paolo Blecich, Bernard Franković
Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka, Croatia
USUSRET BUDUĆNOSTI BEZ EMISIJA CO2
Sažetak
Godine 2009. EU‐27 je donijela paket klimatsko‐energetskih mjera kojima se sve
zemlje članice obvezuju na smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova iz referentne
godine za najmanje 20 posto do 2020. godine. Prema podacima EEA (Europska
Energetska Agencija) EU‐27 je, do kraja 2010. godine, smanjila emisije iz referentne
godine za 15 posto. To smanjenje može biti kratkotrajni učinak globalne ekonomske
krize, a razina emisija se može povećati kada se opet pokrenu gospodarske djelatnosti.
Protokolom iz Kyota EU‐15 se obvezala na prosječno smanjenje emisija od 8 posto u
odnosu na referentnu godinu u razdoblju od 2008. do 2012. godine. EEA tvrdi da se
cilj iz Kyota ne samo ostvario nego i premašio, jer je prosječna razina emisija u
razdoblju od 2008. do 2010. godine bila za 10 posto niža od emisija iz referentne
godine. Nažalost, rijetke su zemlje u svijetu koje dijele EU planove za smanjenje
stakleničkih plinova. Kina i Indija kao i druge brzo razvijajuće ekonomije zauzele su
stav „uobičajenog poslovanja“ tvrdeći da napore za smanjivanje emisija treba
ograničiti na razvijene zapadne zemlje koje su najviše pridonijele klimatskom
problemu.
U posljednje vrijeme je u EU, SAD‐u i ostatku svijeta sve više popularan plan koji
zagovara smanjenje emisija iz referentne godine za čak 80 posto do 2050. godine. Za
ostvarivanje tog cilja potrebno je: provođenje značajnog udjela u proizvodnji
električne energije iz obnovljivih izvora energije, postizanje visoke razine energetske
učinkovitosti u svim energetski intenzivnim sektorima te uvođenje novih tehnologija
kao što je odvajanje i skladištenje ugljikovog dioksida.
Do kraja 2012. godine Hrvatska će ispoštovati obvezu o smanjenju emisija za 5 posto
preuzetu ratifikacijom Protokola iz Kyota, iako je to ostvareno prvenstveno zbog
gospodarske krize. Ulaskom u EU 2013. godine Hrvatska će preuzeti obvezu
smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova za 20 posto do 2020. godine.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
35
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
TOWARDS A CO2‐FREE FUTURE
Abstract
In 2009, the EU‐27 adopted a climate and energy package which committed Member
States to reduce base‐year emission levels by at least 20% by the year 2020.
According to the EEA (European Energy Agency), the EU‐27 had already reduced its
base‐year emissions by 15% by the end of the year 2010. This may, however, be a
short‐term effect of the global economic crisis and these emission levels may level‐off
once the economy speeds up.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU‐15 agreed to achieve a common emission reduction
target of 8% compared to base‐year levels, over the period from 2008 to 2012. The
EEA states that the Kyoto target was not only met but well exceeded in the EU‐15, as
the average emission levels in the period from 2008 to 2010 were 10% lower than the
base‐year emission levels. Unfortunately, very few countries in the world share in the
EU's plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. China and India as well as other
emerging economies have taken the position of “business as usual”, arguing that the
emission reduction efforts should be limited to developed western countries which
have contributed most to the climate problem. Recently, a very bold emission
reduction target has been gaining popularity in the EU, the USA and in the rest of the
world: to reduce base‐year greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by the year 2050. To
reach this target, a significant share of renewables should be employed in power
generation, high levels of energy efficiency should be achieved in all energy intensive
sectors and new technologies such as carbon capture and storage should be introduced.
By the end of the 2012, Croatia will reach the assigned emission reduction target of
5% under the Kyoto Protocol, although it could have been the other way if the
economy had not slowed down. Croatia has agreed to take over the 20% emission
reduction target by 2020 once it becomes the 28th EU Member State in 2013.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
36
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Zoran Kordić, Robert Pašičko, Sandra Vlašić, Lin Herenčić, Ben Bartle
Program Ujedinjenih Naroda za razvoj u Hrvatskoj (UNDP), Zagreb, Croatia
IZRADA STRATEGIJE NISKO-UGLJIČNOG RAZVOJA HRVATSKE
Sažetak
Strategija nisko-ugljičnog razvoja Hrvatske je nacionalna, sveobuhvatna, dugotrajna
strategija, razvijena na visokoj političkoj razini od strane domaćih interesnih skupina,
čiji je cilj razdvojiti ekonomski rast i društveni razvoj od povećanja emisija
stakleničkih plinova.
Republika Hrvatska ima priliku pridružiti se zemljama koje su izradile dugoročnu
strategiju nisko-ugljičnog razvoja te time odlučno krenuti putem održivog razvoja.
Koncept Strategije nisko-ugljičnog razvoja je usvojen odlukom iz Cancuna (Mexico)
iz 2010. godine, na 16. zasjedanju konferencije stranaka (COP 16), pod okriljem
Okvirne konvencije Ujedinjenih naroda o promjeni klime (UNFCCC). Slijedom te
Odluke je i Europska unija izradila Plan puta za prijelaz na konkurentno gospodarstvo
s niskim udjelom ugljika do 2050. godine (A Roadmap for moving to a competitive
low-carbon economy in 2050).
Cilj Strategije nisko-ugljičnog razvoja je kontrola emisija stakleničkih plinova, zaštita
okoliša, poticanje ekonomskog razvoja na principima održivosti, stvaranje prilika za
nove poslove te usmjeravanje društva prema dugoročno održivom razvoju.
Strategija će se izraditi u okviru projekta 'Potpora Republici Hrvatskoj u izradi Niskougljične strategije razvoja' kojeg provodi Program Ujedinjenih naroda za razvoj
(UNDP) u Hrvatskoj. Tijelo zaduženo za izradu strategije je Ministarstvo zaštite
okoliša i prirode.
U okviru Strategije će se, detaljno i stručno, analizirati potencijal ublažavanja
klimatskih promjena za pojedine sektore, prikazati dugoročni BAU (business-asusual) scenarij i scenarij uz primjenu mjera (do 2050.godine), identificirati mjere za
ublažavanje klimatskih promjena i provesti ekonomska analiza definiranih mjera.
Ovaj rad daje pregled izrade Strategije za Hrvatsku (koja bi trebala biti gotova do
veljače 2013. godine), pregled predloženih mjera po uključenim sektorima (s najvećim
naglaskom na sektor energetike), kao i pregled prepreka koje su se pojavljivale pri
izradi takvog dokumenta.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
37
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
MAKING OF CROATIAN LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Abstract
A Low-Emission Development Strategy (LEDS) is a national, high-level,
comprehensive, long-term strategy, developed by domestic stakeholders, which aims
at decoupling economic growth and social development from greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions growth.
Croatia has begun to join the growing list of countries in the world that have already
developed a long-term strategy for low-emissions development and thereby take the
road of sustainable development. The 16th Conference of the Parties” (COP), held in
Cancun in December 2010, adopted the Cancun Agreementsi - a historic set of
decisions laying the foundation to tackle climate change through a new post-2012
regime. The Cancun Agreements “encourages governments to prepare low-carbon
development strategies in the context of sustainable development.” and “realizes that
addressing climate change requires a paradigm shift towards building a low-carbon
society that offers substantial opportunities and ensures continued high growth and
sustainable development”.
Recently the European Commission adopted a Roadmap for transforming the
European Union into a competitive low carbon economy by 2050. The Roadmap
describes the cost-effective pathway to reach the EU's objective of cutting greenhouse
gas emissions by 80-95% of 1990 levels by 2050.
On the domestic level, the LEDS is a country-driven policy instrument for national
decision making. The LEDS supports sector transformation through a national,
economy-wide approach. On the international level, LEDS support the global goal of
GHG emission reduction.
The Croatian Ministry of Environmental and Nature Protection in cooperation with
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Croatia will design and implement
the Low-Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) under project titled “Supporting
RBEC countries transition to low-emission development”. The LEDS merges climate
change action with national sustainable development and helps to identify and
prioritize nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) or sectoral roadmaps by
providing a comprehensive analysis of mitigation potentials, costs and co-benefits.
This paper provides an overview of the process of developing the Strategy for Croatia
(which should be completed by February 2013) and a review of the proposed
measures with special focus on the energy sector.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
38
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Neven Duić, Goran Krajačić, Tomislav Pukšec, Boris Ćosić, Tomislav Novosel,
Iva Ridjan
Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Fakultet strojarstva i brodogradnje, Zagreb, Croatia
ISKORIŠTAVANJE OBNOVLJIVIH IZVORA ENERGIJE, ENERGETSKA
UČINKOVITOST I SMANJENJE EMISIJA STAKLENIČKIH PLINOVA
KAO POKRETAČ RAZVOJA „ZELENE EKONOMIJE“ U
HRVATSKOJ DO 2050. GODINE
Sažetak
Ograničavanje porasta globalnog zatopljenja i smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova
traži zaokret u dosadašnjem vođenju energetske politike mnogih zemalja. Dok
tehnologije s minimalnim i gotovo nultim emisijama stakleničkih plinova postoje i
primjenjuju se nekoliko desetljeća, zabrinjavajuća je vrlo spora stopa rasta njihovog
tržišnog udjela te još uvijek znatno veća ulaganja i subvencije u fosilna goriva na
svjetskoj razini. Da bi došlo do promjena potrebno je vrlo pomno planirati potrošnju i
dobavu energije. Kvalitetno i racionalno predviđanje buduće energetske potrošnje
osnovna je pretpostavka za naprednu analizu i modeliranje energetskih sustava te će
kao ulazni podatak presudno utjecati na dimenzioniranje istih. Kroz ovaj rad odabran
je bottom up pristup, kao najprimjerenija metodologija koja će opisati utjecaj pravnih,
ekonomskih ili čisto tehnoloških mehanizama. Scenariji dobave energije u potpuno
obnovljivom energetskom sustavu za 2050. godinu te mogućnost ostvarivanja
niskougljičnog društva simulirani su pomoću modela za energetsko planiranje:
H2RES i EnergyPLAN. Usporedba korisne energije potrebne za grijanje u 2050.
pokazuje razliku veću od 16 posto, za različiti tempo obnove postojećih zgrada u
sektoru kućanstva od 1 i 3 posto godišnje. Svekolika elektrifikacija cestovnog prometa
osobnih automobila u kombinaciji s postroženim zahtjevima za učinkovitošću motora
s unutrašnjim izgaranjem može dovesti i do 30 posto ušteda u usporedbi s referentnim
scenarijem prometnog sektora u 2050. godini. U razdoblju od 2030. do 2050. moguće
je smanjiti emisije stakleničkih plinova za 82 posto. Korištenje obnovljivih izvora
energije te proizvodnja sintetičkih goriva omogućuju prelazak na potpuno obnovljiv
energetski sustav u Hrvatskoj u 2050, čime se može otvoriti 192.000 radnih mjesta
samo za održavanje postrojenja i proizvodnju goriva te povećati sigurnost opskrbe te
smanjiti vanjskotrgovinska bilanca za cjelokupan uvoz fosilnih goriva, prema
rezultatima simulacija, za 4-5 milijardi eura.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
39
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND
REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AS MAIN
SOURCES OF DEVELOPMENT OF “GREEN ECONOMY”
IN CROATIA UNTIL 2050
Abstract
Most countries will need a shift in their energy strategies in order to limit the increase
in global warming and to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. It is worrying that
while technologies with little or no greenhouse gas emissions exist, and are used for a
couple of decades now, the increase of their market share is extremely low and the
investments and subsidies in fossil fuels are substantially larger on a world wide scale.
For changes to accrue it is necessary to carefully plan both the energy consumption
and supply. A correct and rational prediction of future energy consumption is the basic
assumption for the advanced analysis and modelling of energy systems and it will, as
an input, have a profound influence on them. In this paper a bottom up approach was
selected because it is the most suitable methodology to describe the legal, economic or
purely technical mechanisms. Scenarios for the energy supply in 100% renewable
systems in 2050 and the possibility to create a low-carbon society were simulated
using the EnergyPLAN model for energy system analysis. Comparison of the
necessary useful energy for space heating in 2050 shows a difference greater than 16%
for different rates of renovation of the existing buildings in the residential sector of
1% and 3% annually. The electrification of road transport for passenger cars in
combination with increased requirements for energy efficiency of internal combustion
engines can reduce the energy consumption in the transport sector by 30% in
comparison to the reference scenario for 2050. It is possible to reduce the emission of
greenhouse gases by 82% in the period 2030-2050 and the use of renewable energy
sources and the production of synthetic fuels can enable a transition to a 100%
renewable energy system in Croatia in 2050. Doing so would create 192000 jobs in
plant maintenance and fuel production alone, increase the security of energy supply
and reduce the expenditure for the purchase of fossil fuels by 4-5 billion EUR
according to the results of the simulation.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
40
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Dubravko Sabolić
HEP-Transmission System Operator, Llc.
EKONOMSKA PITANJA U VEZI S DEKARBONIZACIJOM
ELEKTROENERGETSKOG SUSTAVA
Sažetak
Ostvarivanje ciljeva Europske unije glede smanjenja emisija ugljikovog dioksida za
osamdeset posto do 2050. godine podrazumijeva, između ostalog, ostvarivanje
proizvodnje električne energije iz obnovljivih izvora u udjelu od 96 posto ili više. Isto
tako, elektroenergetski sustav u najširem smislu treba značajno povećati vlastitu
energetsku učinkovitost. Ovako ambiciozni ciljevi, koji iz današnje perspektive
izgledaju gotovo nedostižni, zahtijevat će izuzetno velika kapitalna ulaganja u
postrojenja bazirana na čistim tehnologijama. Troškovi očuvanja okoliša više se neće
moći zaobilaziti kao do sada. Te troškove će društvo kao cjelina morati podnijeti kroz
povećanje cijena energije u svim njenim oblicima. Današnji sustavi subvencija, na
kojima počiva razvoj obnovljivih izvora energije, morat će u udaljenoj budućnosti kao
što je 2050. godina biti potpuno napušteni, a sustav će morati postati samoodrživ u
ekonomskom smislu. U ovom radu su sagledani ekonomski izazovi pred kojima se
nalazi elektroenergetski sustav u procesu rapidne dekarbonizacije te je ukazano na
neke od općih raširenih zabluda u vezi s tim procesom.
ECONOMIC ISSUES IN POWER SYSTEM
DECARBONIZATION
Abstract
Achieving the eighty-percent decrease in carbon-dioxide emissions until 2050, which
is the primary goal of the European Union’s long-term energy policy, assumes, inter
alia, that the electricity part of the system will be able to produce at least 96 percent of
electricity from renewable sources. Moreover, the power system in the widest sense of
the word should significantly increase its energy efficiency. Such tremendously
ambitious goals, which may as well seem almost unattainable from today’s
perspective, will certainly require hefty capital investments in plants based on clean
technologies, thus, the costs of pollution externalities will not be avoidable anymore.
They will have to be bore by the society through substantial increase in energy prices
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
41
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
relative to other products and services. Today’s subvention schemes, which support
current development of renewable sources, will have to be completely abandoned until
such a distant future as 2050 is. The power system will have to become selfsustainable in an economic sense. This work pertains to economic challenges which
face the power system in a forthcoming processes of rapid decarbonization, as well as
to some widely-spread blunders about them.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
42
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
21. Forum
Prof.dr.sc. Bojan Baletić, Prof.dr.sc. Mladen Josić, Velimir Tolić
University of Zagreb
KAMPUS BORONGAJ: CO2 IZAZOV ZA SVEUČILIŠTE
Kampus Borongaj će osigurati optimalne uvjete za studij, primjenu znanja i ideja,
smještaj, sport i zabavu na jednom mjestu. Kampus će biti prostor otvoren prema
lokalnoj zajednici i njenim komplementarnim sadržajima. Izgradnjom Kampusa
Borongaj, Sveučilište u Zagrebu želi stvoriti nove i bolje prostorne mogućnosti i na taj
način potaknuti znanstvenike, sveučilišne profesore i studente za predaniji i
učinkovitiji rad.
Kampus će ponuditi okolišnu, energetsku i tehnološku referentnu točku za hrvatsku
građevinsku industriju i lokalno stanovništvo grada, maksimalnim korištenjem zelene
energije i provedbe zaštite okoliša. Svi energetski zahtjevi Kampusa Borongaj
temeljeni su na integriranom sustavu urbanih, arhitektonskih, mehaničkih, topoloških,
geoloških, pedoloških, hidroloških, termodinamičkih i aerodinamičnih mjera za
uspostavu Kampusa Borongaj u smislu regionalnog zelenog edukacijskog centra za
obnovljive izvore energije i transfer tehnologije.
Cilj je da Kampus Borongaj, sa svojim partnerskim projektima, postepeno prelazi od
CO2 nula do CO2 minus razine, odnosno na današnji princip društva 2000 W (prema
terminologiji od ETH Zürich). Povezivanjem energije, transporta, hrane, održive
gradnje u pametnom gradu Kampus Borongaj, nastoji se predstavit pilot projekt u
postizanju ciljeva smanjenja emisije CO2 za 80%, danas, bez čekanja do 2050. godine.
CAMPUS BORONGAJ: A CO2 CHALLENGE FOR THE UNIVERSITY
Abstract
The Borongaj Campus will provide optimal conditions for study, application of
knowledge and ideas, lodging, sport and entertainment in one place. The Borongaj
Campus will be an area open toward the local community and its complementary
facilities. By means of constructing the Borongaj Campus, the University of Zagreb
wishes to create new and better spatial possibilities and thus encourage scientists,
university professors and students to work in a more dedicated and efficient manner.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
43
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
The campus will offer environmental, energy and technology reference point to the
Croatian construction industry and to the local inhabitants of the city by using
maximum of a green energy and implementing environmental protection. All energy
demands of the Campus Borongaj are based on an integrated system of urban,
architectural, mechanical, topological, geological, pedologic, hydrological,
thermodynamic and aerodynamic measures to establish Campus Borongaj the regional
green education centre for RES and transfer technology.
The aim is that Campus Borongaj, with its partner projects, gradually pass from CO2
zero to CO2 minus, respectively nowadays on the principle of the society the 2000 W
(according to the terminology of ETH Zürich). Interconnection of energy, transport,
food, sustainable construction in smart city Campus Borongaj as the pilot project in
achieving the goals of reducing the CO2 emissions by 80%, like reality today, without
waiting the 2050th year.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
44
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Tomislav Ćutić, Jakov Baleta, Josip Pasanec, Vladimir Soldo, Tonko Ćurko
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Zagreb
SMANJENJE POTROŠNJE ENERGIJE I EMISIJE CO2 SUSTAVA ZA
PRIPREMU POTROŠNE TOPLE VODE PRIMJENOM SOLARNE
DIZALICE TOPLINE S DIREKTNIM ISPARIVANJEM
RADNE TVARI
Sažetak
Priprema potrošne tople vode najčešće se provodi pomoću kotlova na fosilna goriva
čijim izgaranjem nastaju onečišćujući plinovi te električnim bojlerima čija velika
potrošnja posredno utječe na emisije štetnih plinova. Visok specifični toplinski
kapacitet vode uzrokuju velike potrebne količine energije za njeno zagrijavanje, što
značajno pridonosi ukupnoj potrošnji u kućanstvima, sektoru u kojem je u 2010.
godini utrošeno 80,81 PJ ili 19,6 posto ukupne potrošnje u Republici Hrvatskoj. S
obzirom na važnost sustava za pripremu potrošne tople vode u pogledu potrošnje
energije i emisije stakleničkih plinova te obveze koje Hrvatska mora ispuniti u
području smanjenja ukupne potrošnje energije, smanjenja emisije CO2 te povećanja
udjela energije iz obnovljivih izvora, očigledna je potreba za primjenom novih
tehnoloških rješenja u ovom području.
U ovom radu opisana je solarna dizalica topline s direktnim isparivanjem radne tvari.
Razvijeni uređaj, čiji princip rada počiva na ljevokretnom kružnom procesu, služi za
pripremu potrošne tople vode volumena 300 l i predstavlja moguću komercijalnu
inačicu omogućujući istovremeno istraživanja zahvaljujući ugrađenoj mjernoj opremi.
Objašnjen je i princip rada uređaja, prikazani su i analizirani rezultati prvih mjerenja
te je napravljena usporedba emisije CO2 između solarne dizalice topline i uređaja koji
se uobičajeno koriste.
S obzirom na decentraliziranu pripremu potrošne tople vode, povoljne meteorološke
prilike posebice u južnim dijelovima Hrvatske te na sve više cijene energenata, ovaj
tip sustava trebao bi pronaći svoju praktičnu primjenu u vrlo skoroj budućnosti. Takav
sustav omogućio bi istovremeno sudjelovanje domaćih proizvođača pojedinih
komponenata i smanjenje kako ukupne potrošnje energije tako i emisije stakleničkih
plinova u Hrvatskoj.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
45
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
REDUCTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN
DOMESTIC WATER HEATING BY MEANS OF DIRECT EXPANSION
SOLAR ASSISTED HEAT PUMP
Abstract
Domestic water heating in households sector is usually performed by either fossil fuel
fired or electric boilers. Both the combustion process of the former and large
electricity consumption of the latter strongly influence overall greenhouse gas
emissions. Moreover, very high specific heat of water requires large quantity of
energy for water heating making a significant impact on the overall energy
consumption in the households sector whose total consumption of 80,81 PJ equals to
19,6% of total primary energy supply in Croatia in 2010. Considering the mentioned
impact on energy consumption and CO2 emissions as well as goals set by European
Commission (so called 20-20-20), new technologies based on renewable energy
sources are more than welcome in the field of domestic water heating.
Direct expansion solar assisted heat pump is presented in this paper. Its working
principle is based on single-stage vapour-compression cycle. Representing a gradual
step to commercial application with a water tank of 300 l, the developed mobile unit is
designed as a test rig enabling all necessary measurements to evaluate potential of
solar irradiation for domestic water heating on various locations. Besides the unit
description, trial testing results are presented and analyzed as well as a basic
comparison of CO2 emissions between solar assisted heat pump and conventionally
used water heating systems.
Taking into account both the decentralized water heating and favourable climatic
conditions (especially along the Croatian Adriatic coast) as well as rising fossil fuel
prices, it is expected that solar assisted heat pumps will be commercialized in the near
future.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
46
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Tomo Galić1, Željko Tomšić2
1
2
HEP-Operator distribucijskog sustava d.o.o.
Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing, Zagreb
VIRTUALNE ELEKTRANE KAO MODEL ZA KONKURENTNOST MALIH
PROIZVOĐAČA I OPERATORA VIRTUALNIH ELEKTRANA NA
TRŽIŠTIMA ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE I PLINA
Sažetak
Proizvodnja električne energije iz obnovljivih izvora i energetski učinkovitih izvora
energije koji se priključuju na distribucijsku elektroenergetsku mrežu još uvijek nije
konkurentna proizvodnji električne energije iz konvencionalnih izvora električne
energije. Snažan tehnološki razvoj distribuiranih energetskih izvora i tehnologija za
skladištenje električne energije omogućio je smanjenje troškova njihove proizvodnje,
smanjenje troškova proizvodnje električne energije iz distribuiranih izvora energije,
smanjenje troškova istovremene proizvodnje električne i toplinske energije iz
kogeneracijskih distribuiranih izvora energije te na taj način omogućio i njihovu sve
veću primjenu u praksi. To, također, omogućava njihovo međusobno povezivanje u
sustave poput virtualnih elektrana radi ostvarenja potpune ekonomske opravdanosti
njihove primjene. Postojeći kupci električne energije i plina, sada i u ulozi malih
proizvođača električne energije, međusobno su povezani preko operatora virtualnih
elektrana. Osim toga što kupuju električnu energiju i plin na maloprodajnim tržištima
električne energije i plina, kupci će moći i prodavati električnu energiju i nove
energetske usluge i na veleprodajnim tržištima električne energije. Razvoj i primjena
novih distribuiranih tehnologija omogućit će proizvodnju novih količina električne
energije čime će se povećati konkurentnost proizvođača električne energije,
opskrbljivača krajnjih kupaca električnom energijom te elastičnost ponude i potražnje
na tržištu električne energije. Ti procesi ujedno će povećati učinkovitost cjelokupnog
sustava opskrbe električnom energijom i sustava opskrbe plinom.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
47
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
VIRTUAL POWER PLANTS AS A MODEL FOR THE COMPETITIVENESS
OF SMALL MANUFACTURERS AND OPERATORS OF VIRTUAL POWER
PLANTS IN MARKETS OF ELECTRICITY AND GAS
Abstract
Production of electricity from renewable energy sources and energy-efficient power
sources to be connected to the electricity distribution network is still not competitive
with electricity production from conventional sources of electricity. A powerful
technological development of distributed energy sources and technologies for
electricity storage has reduced their production costs, production costs of electricity
from distributed energy sources, the costs of simultaneous production of electricity
and thermal energy from cogeneration distributed energy sources and thus has
facilitated their increased use in practice. It also allows them to interconnect systems
such as virtual power plants in order to achieve full economic feasibility of their use.
Current electricity and gas customers, now also in the role of small power producers,
interconnected by virtual power plants operators, in addition to buying electricity and
gas on retail markets for electricity and gas, will be able to sell electricity and new
energy services also on wholesale electricity markets. Development and application of
new distributed technologies will enable the production of new quantities of electricity
which will increase the competitiveness of electricity producers, competitiveness of
electricity suppliers of end-customers and elasticity of supply and demand in the
electricity market. These processes will also increase the efficiency of the entire
systems of electricity supply and of the gas supply systems.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
48
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Vladimir Potočnik
URH, Zagreb
DEKARBONIZACIJA HRVATSKE ENERGETIKE
Sažetak
Dekarbonizacija energetike znači smanjivanje emisija stakleničkih plinova (CO2e),
uglavnom od izgaranja fosilnih goriva (ugljen, nafta, prirodni plin). Glavni cilj
dekarbonizacije energetike je ublažavanje klimatskih promjena, a osim toga se postiže
razvoj domaće industrije i zapošljavanja, bolja zaštita okoliša i zdravlja te smanjivanje
uvoza fosilnih goriva i inozemnog duga.
Hrvatska raspolaže malim rezervama fosilnih goriva i velikim potencijalom
obnovljivih izvora energije (OIE). Energetska učinkovitost (ENEF) je relativno niska,
a uvoz energije s današnjih 50 posto trebao bi prema Strategiji energetskog razvoja
Republike Hrvatske iz 2009. porasti do 2020. na 70 posto. Hrvatska energetika danas
sudjeluje u vanjskotrgovinskom deficitu Hrvatske s oko trećinom.
Glavne mjere dekarbonizacije hrvatske energetike su:
• povećanje ENEF (uštede energije)
• zamjena fosilnih goriva s OIE i
• administrativne mjere (nisko-ugljična strategija razvoja, eko-porezna reforma
i razdvajanje prihoda od prodaje energije).
Neodgodivom primjenom tih mjera Hrvatska bi se do 2050. godine mogla riješiti
fosilnih goriva.
DECARBONIZATION OF CROATIAN ENERGY SYSTEM
Abstract
Energy system decarbonization is reduction of greenhouse gases (CO2e) emission,
chiefly from the fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) combustion. The main objective of
an energy system decarbonization is the climate change mitigation, and at the same
time development of local industry and employment, better environment and health
protection, as well as reduction of the fossil fuels import and foreign debt.
Croatia has small fossil fuels reserves and large renewable energy sources (RES)
reserves, energy efficiency (ENEF) is relatively low, and energy import, according to
the actual Energy strategy 2009, should increase from 50% to 70% until 2020.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
49
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Croatian energy system participates with about one third in the Croatian foreign trade
deficit.
The main measures of the Croatian energy system decarbonization should be:
• increasing ENEF (energy savings),
• switch from fossil fuels to RES,
• administrative measures (low carbon development strategy, environmental
tax reform, and decoupling income from energy sales).
By urgent application of these measures, Croatia could become fossil fuels free until
the year 2050.
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
50
21. Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
SPONZORI 21. FORUMA / 21st FORUM SPONSORSHIP
21st Forum
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
51
21. Forum
21st Forum
Smanjenje emisije CO2 za 80 posto do 2050. godine – realnost ili utopija –
Reducing CO2 emissions by 80 percent before 2050 – reality or utopia –
52

Download Report