*
2011
1 9
**
2004 12
*
2006
21
COE
CEMANO
CEMANO
K. Palanisami
**
Yasuyuki SAWADA, Ph.D.:
113-0033
7-3-1 ; Graduate School of Economics and Faculty of Economics, The University of
Tokyo, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan
1
Kohara, Ohtake, and Saito
(2006), Carter et. al (2007), Gitter and Barham
(2007), Sawada and Shimizutani (2007, 2008), Shoji
(2010), Takasaki et al. (2004)
1
1980
2004
12
(Dercon ed., 2005; Fafchamps,2003)
Tamil Nadu
,
500m
Kunreuther and Rose, 2004
, 2001,
, 2003,
, 2008
Hirshleifer (1966)
Kunreuther and Rose, 2004
Howard Kunreuther (1978)
2005;
Froot, ed., 1999;
, 2005)
Camerer and Kunreuther, 1989)
,
Centre for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)
(Skidmore and Toya,
2002; Toya and Skidmore, 2007; Khan, 2005;
Strömberg, 2007; Sawada, et. al, 2010)
Rodriguez, Balasubramanian, Shiny,
Duraiswamy and Jaiprakash (2008) Aldrich
(2011)
Tamil Nadu
8000
serendipitous
treatment group
control group
DiNardo (2008)
experiment
natural
30
District
13
376
373
3
984,564
(Nagapattinum District)
8,010
3,432
126,182
2
3
2
2
2
21
2004 12 26
9
11
2~3
2
815.0 million USD
100.8 million USD
51.8 million USD
44.7 millionUSD
1
67
NGO Coordination and Resource Centre (NCRC)
,
1
(
)
(5 )
2006
COE
38
(18 )
(1)
(3)
(2)
6
3
1
2
3
8
Taluk
50
400
3
400
2006 1
4
400
144
241
A.
B.
15
C.
D.
E.
4
F.
53
2
G.
H.
I.
9
2004
10
2005 4
2005 5
2005 7
2005 6
4
Nakata,
400
5
Sawada, and Tanaka 2010
21
3
Scott (2000)
3
2004 10
1
Zeldes (1989)
t
Zeldes (1989)
t+1
t
ct
u( )
A
A 0
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{ C t , St }
T t
k
k =0
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At 0,
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AT 0,
(1)
rt
t
t 1
1
) yt
ct
t+1
yt
t
Et
t
Eswaran and
Kotwal (1989), Morduch (1994), Besley (1995),
Fafchamps (2003), Dercon ed. (2005), Lee and
Sawada (2010)
2
A 0
Zeldes
(1989)
(1)
:
(2) u' (ct )
E t u' (ct 1 )(1 rt
t
)
t
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e
(3)
log cit
1
log cit
1
1
.
log(1
it
log(1 rit
' ) log(1 eit )
it
) log
i
4
(3)
3
1
2
189,000Rs
218,000Rs
(3)
5
5
2
3
2
1
5
2
NGO
3
500
NGO
First order stochastic dominance
3
5
500
2(e)
2(d)
7
6
3
2
200
5.
6
2004 12
3
6
(VII) (VIII) (IX)
3
Lee (1982)
6
(VII) (VIII) (IX)
NGO
500
NGO
Umetsu, et. al, 2010
1
oufias (2003) Sawada (2007),
2010)
Sk
(2004, 2006,
2
Horwich, 2000
Deaton (1997) money metric ut
ility(
3
Two sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov
( 3(d))
NGO
Development 35(5), 835-856.
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Household Surveys: A Microeconometric
Approach to Development Policy, Oxford
University Press.
Dercon, Stefan ed., (2005). "Insurance against
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and quasi-natural experiments." Steven N.
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New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,
Second Edition. Palgrave Macmillan.
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(2005)
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11
5 .
(2006)
No,
124, 2006 1
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2010
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(2005)
(2008)
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2003
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Aldrich, Daniel P. (2011), The Externalities of
Strong Social Capital: Post-Tsunami
Recovery in Southeast India, forthcoming,
Journal of Civil Society.
Insurance, in Jere Behrman and T. N.
Srinivasan, eds., Handbook of Development
Economics Volume 3A, North-Holland,
Sections 4.5, 4.6, and 4.7
Camerer, Colin F. and Howard Kunreuther
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management
8(4), 565-592.
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Mogues and Workneh Negatu (2007),
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Fafchamps, Marcel. (2003). Rural Poverty,
Risk and Development, Edward Elgar.
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of Catastrophe Risk, National Bureau of
Economic Research Project Report,
University of Chicago Press.
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"Credit, Natural Disasters, Coffee and
Educational Attainment in Rural Honduras"
World Development 35(3), 498-511.
Hirshl
Recovery: The Black Death in Western
RM-4700-TAB, Feb, 1-31.
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from Kobe Earthquake." Economic
Development and Cultural Change 48, pp.
521-542.
from Natural Disasters: The Role of
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271-284.
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Saito, (2006)
Earthquake on Household Consumption: A
Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics
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Miller, Phillip Sagi, Paul Solvic, B. Borkan,
and N. Katz (1978), Disaster Insurance
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Kunreuther, Howard and Adam Rose eds.
(2004). The Economics of Natural Hazards I
and II, The International Library of Critical
Writings in Economics 178, Edward Elgar
Publishers, Inc.
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Economic Studies 49:355-372.
Saving under Liquidity Constraints:
Evidence from Rural Pakistan (with
JeongEconomics, 91(1), 77-86, 2010
84, 221-225.
Nakata, Hiroyuki, Yasuyuki Sawada, and Mari
Asking Retrospective
Questions in Household Surveys: Evidence
from Vietnam RIETI Discussion Paper
10E-008.
Rodriguez, S., Balasubramanian, G., Shiny, M.
P. , Mohanambigai, D. and Jaiprakash, P.
(2008). Beyond the Tsunami: Community
Perceptions of Resources, Policy and
Development, Post-Tsunami Interventions
and Community Institutions.
UNDP/UNTRS, Chennai and ATREE,
Bangalore, India.
eveloping Countries: Lessons from 15 y
ears of the Living Standards Measureme
nt Study. World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Shoji, Masahiro (2010). "Does Contingent
Repayment in Microfinance Help the Poor
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and Natural Disasters: Coping Strategies
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Economic Development, and Humanitarian
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21(3): 199 222.
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strategies in tropical forests: floods,
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Tomoaki Kotera (2010), Aggregate
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Natural Disasters: Evidence from the Great
Hanshin-Awaji
Applied Economics Letters 14(4), 303 6.
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Nadu, India, paper presented at a
conference, The Indian Ocean Tsunami: 5
Years Later, Assessing the Vulnerability
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Regions, on 1-3 March 2010, Hotel Grand
Pacific, Singapore
Zeldes, Stephen P. (1989). "Consumption and
Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical
Investigation." Journal of Political Economy
97(2), 305-346.
1
(km)
(1000Rs)
Lowess smoother
400
600
800
200
Daily labor income
400
600
Lowess smoother
0
0
Asset holdings
(Lowess Estimation)
(km)
(Rs)
(b)
200
(a)
0
.5
1
1.5
km from original residence to coastal line
2
0
bandwidth = .8
.5
1
1.5
km from original residence to coastal line
2
(Lowess
(a)
(
)
(
)
Lowess smoother
1
.2
.4
1 if member(s) died
.6
.8
1
.8
.6
.4
0
.2
0
0
.5
1
1.5
km from original residence to coastal line
0
2
.5
1
1.5
km from original residence to coastal line
2
bandwidth = .8
bandwidth = .8
(c)
(
)
(d)
(
Lowess smoother
)
.8
.6
.4
.2
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1 if damage to agricultural land
1
1
Lowess smoother
0
0
.5
1
1.5
km from original residence to coastal line
2
0
bandwidth = .8
.5
1
1.5
km from original residence to coastal line
bandwidth = .8
NGO
(
Rs)
Lowess smoother
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
(e)
Amount of relief per day
1 if damage to a boat(s)
)
(b)
Lowess smoother
1 if damage to house or utensils
2
bandwidth = .8
0
bandwidth = .8
.5
1
1.5
km from original residence to coastal line
2
2
3
(
( K olmogorov-Smirnov
(b)
0
0
.2
.2
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
.8
1
1
(a)
)
)
0
2000
4000
Relief
6000
Damaged
8000
0
10000
2000
4000
Relief
6000
Damaged
NoDamage
10000
NoDamage
(d)
0
0
.2
.2
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
.8
1
1
(c)
8000
0
2000
4000
Relief
Damaged
6000
8000
NoDamage
10000
0
2000
4000
Relief
Damaged
6000
8000
NoDamage
10000
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
7
301
106
N.K.
7
N.K.
51.8
7
187
170
1616
2
157417
50.8
2
33
428
N.K.
81
30000
94.7
13
376
7921
3324
N.K.
433048
801.3
29
935
10380
5602
12098
631994
998.6
88.6
117.8
107.3
2105.3
2469.8
1.99
19.59
3.70
40.53
65.81
1.80
8.70
4.59
82.27
97.36
481
13,042
10,061
130,000
)
153,585
(crore Rs.) **
(crore Rs.) **
(crore Rs.)**
(crore Rs.)**
**
* 2005 1 5
Post Tsunami
Recovery Program Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment.
2
Chennai
Cuddalore
Kancheepuram
Kanyakumari
Nagapattinum
Pudukkottai
Ramanathapuram
Thanjavur
Thiruvallur
Thiruvarur
Tirunelveli
Tuticorin
Villupuram
73000
99704
100000
187650
196184
66350
0
29278
15600
0
27948
110610
78240
984564
17805
206
55
15200
617
198
7043
129
14
31175
828
727
39941
6065
1922
1
15
0
6
6
0
3
33
482
4143
29
0
0
28
0
630
4
4
735
3
0
9500
47
30
126182
8010
3432
www.tn.gov.in/tsunami
3
Sathangudi (Tharangambadi)
Poompugar (Sirkali)
Vellapallam (vedaranyam),
Vilunthamavadi(Kilvelur)
Pudukuppam (Sirkali)
Chinnangudi (Tharangambadi)
Southpoigainallur (Nagai)
Prathamaramapuram
(Vedaranyam),
Periyakuthagai (Vedaranyam)
Kameswaram (Kilvelur)
Manian Theevu (Vedaranyam)
Vanagiri (Sirkali)
Melmooverkarai (Sirkali),
Thalampettai(Tharangambadi)
Palpannaicheri (Nagai)
Vairavankadu(Kilvelur),
koolaiyar (Sirkali),
Thirmullaivasal (Sirkali)
4
2004 10
2005 4
(Rs.
)
(Rs.
)
(Rs.
)
(1000Rs)
(1000Rs)
(1000 Rs.)
(Adult equivalent scale)
(km)
71.95
(34.07)
0.73
(1.93)
20.89
(52.14)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.11
(2.25)
211.66
(484.53)
3.48
(1.20)
0.29
(0.45)
0.37
(0.48)
0.95
(0.48)
33.62
(24.99)
157.04
(434.05)
11.18
(57.44)
0.21
(0.41)
0.05
(0.22)
13.66
(43.58)
59.74
(411.34)
123.36
(127.03)
3.44
(1.18)
2005 5
2005 6
56.39
(25.67)
171.32
(773.20)
18.25
(55.57)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
122.39
(127.26)
3.44
(1.18)
Townsend (1994)
2005 7
71.05
(34.64)
49.65
(188.04)
22.87
(60.19)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
122.36
(127.29)
3.44
(1.18)
5
2
3
4
2
3
4
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
-30.0567***
(5.299)
-3.4447
(6.353)
2.5189
(5.419)
21.4616***
(4.484)
0.8457
(5.110)
-0.5730
(4.289)
20.8895***
(1.298)
457.7467***
(93.233)
666.5781***
(144.552)
52.2885
(70.710)
-317.8788***
(73.818)
-523.0359***
(117.138)
-3.5526
(57.486)
0.7267
(12.337)
427.6900***
(94.015)
663.1334***
(146.950)
54.8073
(72.888)
-296.4172***
(74.377)
-522.1902***
(119.043)
-4.1256
(59.134)
21.6163*
(12.760)
-1.8224***
(0.100)
-0.4513***
(0.060)
-0.0011
(0.064)
0.8964***
(0.079)
0.2357***
(0.048)
-0.0170
(0.052)
4.1695***
(0.017)
1,600
0.046
400
1,600
0.106
400
1,600
0.099
400
1,600
0.544
400
Robust standard errors in parentheses.*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
6
OLS
(I)
-0.0055
(0.019)
(1000Rs)
(1000Rs)
(1000Rs)
(1000Rs)
(1000Rs)
2
3
4
OLS
(II)
OLS
(III)
-0.0125
(0.041)
-0.1805
(0.296)
-0.4514
(0.615)
-0.0114***
(0.002)
0.0005*
(0.000)
-0.4454*
(0.198)
0.0001
(0.000)
0.0008
(0.001)
-0.0003
(0.000)
0.2107
(0.191)
0.0161
(0.010)
1.5145**
(0.604)
0.9939*
(0.466)
0.0000
(0.000)
-0.7550**
(0.278)
-0.1365
(0.153)
-0.4816
(0.534)
-0.0114***
(0.002)
0.0005*
(0.000)
-0.4289***
(0.123)
0.0001
(0.000)
0.0008
(0.001)
-0.0003
(0.000)
0.2228
(0.176)
0.0164
(0.009)
1.5672**
(0.604)
1.0652*
(0.547)
0.0000
(0.000)
-0.8301**
(0.313)
-0.0121
(0.041)
-0.0085
(0.031)
-0.1524
(0.134)
-0.4622
(0.487)
-0.0113***
(0.002)
0.0006*
(0.000)
-0.4161**
(0.131)
0.0001
(0.000)
0.0008
(0.001)
-0.0003
(0.000)
0.2079
(0.152)
0.0164
(0.009)
1.4854*
(0.690)
1.0061
(0.672)
0.0000
(0.000)
-0.7588*
(0.394)
1,200
0.547
1,200
0.548
1,200
0.549
Robust standard errors in parentheses.*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
200
IV
(IV)
0.0056
(0.050)
IV
(V)
IV
(VI)
0.0415
(0.079)
-0.0461
(0.199)
2.8868**
(0.875)
-0.0550**
(0.016)
0.0067
(0.004)
-9.8879*
(4.559)
-0.0021**
(0.001)
0.0408**
(0.014)
-0.0065
(0.004)
-0.0305
(0.253)
0.1879
(0.105)
1.2446**
(0.484)
0.8032*
(0.403)
0.0000
(0.000)
-0.8069
(0.962)
723
-0.1890
(0.278)
1.5503*
(0.766)
-0.0412**
(0.015)
0.0012
(0.002)
-7.5477***
(2.083)
0.0003
(0.001)
0.0173**
(0.006)
-0.0009
(0.002)
0.0470
(0.217)
0.1153*
(0.052)
1.4623*
(0.723)
0.8992
(0.549)
0.0000
(0.000)
-1.0387***
(0.281)
-0.3581
(0.251)
1.9804*
(0.849)
-0.0416**
(0.016)
0.0013
(0.002)
-8.8051**
(3.138)
0.0002
(0.001)
0.0175**
(0.006)
-0.0011
(0.001)
-0.0107
(0.218)
0.1267*
(0.059)
1.3936**
(0.584)
0.7196
(0.665)
0.0000
(0.000)
-0.8752
(0.466)
0.0396
(0.094)
0.0139
(0.079)
-0.3260
(0.387)
1.8887
(1.109)
-0.0415**
(0.015)
0.0010
(0.002)
-8.7151**
(3.453)
0.0001
(0.001)
0.0174**
(0.006)
-0.0007
(0.003)
0.0260
(0.292)
0.1252*
(0.063)
1.5229
(1.057)
0.8160
(1.124)
0.0000
(0.000)
-0.9932
(0.895)
1,200
1,200
1,200
IV
(VII)
0.0003
(0.034)
IV
(VIII)
IV
(IX)
0.0321
(0.045)
-0.1725
(0.141)
3.3687**
(1.371)
-0.0571**
(0.016)
0.0067
(0.005)
-11.0959
(6.209)
-0.0022**
(0.001)
0.0421**
(0.015)
-0.0065
(0.005)
-0.0909
(0.298)
0.2050*
(0.105)
1.2292**
(0.409)
0.6790
(0.455)
0.0000
(0.000)
-0.7880
(1.017)
0.0503
(0.058)
-0.0262
(0.057)
-0.2632
(0.141)
3.9253
(2.133)
-0.0615**
(0.021)
0.0075
(0.004)
-12.0975
(7.655)
-0.0022**
(0.001)
0.0450*
(0.019)
-0.0072
(0.004)
-0.2106
(0.421)
0.2264
(0.136)
0.9891
(0.759)
0.4301
(0.823)
0.0000
(0.000)
-0.8602
(1.064)
723
723
7
O LS
*
2
*
3
*
4
* 2
* 3
* 4
2
3
4
*
2
*
3
*
4
*
2
*
3
*
4
139.4090**
(55.931)
-68.0066
(158.022)
-147.5235***
(39.556)
952.6337***
(257.110)
1,027.0911**
(481.339)
28.6903
(73.767)
244.3629**
(96.495)
330.4664
(256.702)
271.5623***
(66.814)
4.8020
(23.956)
-149.8482***
(54.257)
-35.7180**
(15.071)
41.2726*
(24.032)
163.2672***
(55.055)
59.2580***
(15.151)
0.7267***
(0.097)
1,600
0.235
Robust standard errors in parentheses.*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1