Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 55 ◊✲ࣀ࣮ࢺ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ ி㒔ᏛᅬᏛ ⤒῭Ꮫ㒊 ᐑᕝ 㔜⩏ せ ᪨ ᮏ✏ࡣ 2008 ᖺࡢ࣮࣐ࣜࣥࣈࣛࢨࢬࡢ◚ࡓࢇక࠺ࠊ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡀࡢࡼ࠺ ࡋ࡚⏕ࡌࡓࢆ᫂ࡽࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᅇࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵ㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣࡍ࡛ከ ࡃࡢ◊✲ࡀ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡽࡢ㆟ㄽࢆᩚ⌮⤂ࡍࡿᙧ࡛ࠊ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢၥ㢟 ࢆゎ᫂ࡍࡿࠋࡍ࡛ࠊࢃࢀࢃࢀࡣ 1930 ᖺ௦ࡢࠕᜍៃࠖ௨᮶࠸ࡃࡘࡢࡁ ࡞㔠⼥༴ᶵࢆ⤒㦂ࡋ࡚ࡁ࡚࠸ࡿࡀࠊࡑࡢࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡣࣂࣈࣝࣂࢫࢺࡢ⧞ࡾ㏉ࡋ ࡛࠶ࡾࠋࣂࣈࣝࡢ⫼ᚋࡣࠊࡘࡡ㔠⼥⦆㔠⼥つไ⦆ࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊ ࡑࡢᚋࡣᚲࡎࠊ㔠⼥ᘬ⥾ࡵࡀ⾜ࢃࢀࠊつไᙉࡀኌ㧗ྉࡤࢀࡿࠋᅇࡢ㔠 ⼥༴ᶵ࡛ࡶᨵࡵ࡚ࡑࡢㄆ㆑ࡢṇࡋࡉࡀド᫂ࡉࢀࡓࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊ⌧ᐇၥ㢟 ࡋ࡚㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࡞࠾⥅⥆ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ࡞ࡽࡤࠊᨻᗓ࠾ࡼࡧ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡣࡢࡼ࠺ ᑐฎࡍࡁ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ௨ୖࡢࡇࢆᛕ㢌ࠊᮏ✏࡛ࡣࡇࡢၥ㢟㏕ࡗ࡚࠸ࡁ ࡓ࠸ࠋ ࣮࣮࢟࣡ࢻ㔠⼥⦆ࠊつไ⦆ࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࠊࣉ࣮ࣝࢹࣥࢫࠊ ࢩࣕࢻ࣮ࣂࣥࢡ ࡣࡌࡵ ࣂࣈࣝ࠾ࡼࡧࡑࡢᔂቯࡣᖖ⧞ࡾ㏉ࡋ㉳ࡇࡿࠋࣂࣈࣝࡣ㔠⼥⦆つไ⦆ࡼࡗ࡚⏕ࡲ ࢀࡿࠋࣂࣈࣝࡀ㉳ࡁࡿࡓࡧࡑࡢ᭱୰࠸ࡿேࡣ㝡㓉㸦euphoria㸧㝗ࡿࠋ ࠕᅇࡣ㐪࠺㸦This time is different.㸧 ࠖ㒔ྜࡢⰋ࠸ゎ㔘ࢆࡍࡿࠋᨻᗓࠊ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࠊࡑࡋ࡚ᅜẸࡲ࡛ࡶ ⮬ࡽࢆḭࡁࣂࣈࣝࢆ↽ࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊࣂࣈࣝࡣ࠸ࡘ◚ࡍࡿࠋࡑࡢᔂቯࡣᕧ㢠ࡢⰋമᶒࡢ Ⓨ⏕ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࢆ◚ࡓࢇ㏣࠸㎸ࡴ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣࡑࡢ㈨⏘ෆᐜࢆຎࡉࡏࡿࠋ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵 ࡢ◚ࡓࢇ࡞࠸ࡋ⤒Ⴀᝏࡣ㔠⼥ࢩࢫࢸ࣒యࢆᶵ⬟㝗ࢀࠊ⤒῭άືࢆࡁࡃᝏࡉࡏ ࡿࠋ⤒῭άືࡢᝏࡣ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࢆࡉࡽ❓ᆅ㏣࠸㎸ࡳ⤒῭ࡢᝏࢆಁ㐍ࡍࡿࠋ㈇ࡢ㐃㙐ࡀ ጞࡲࡿࠋࡇࢀࡀ㔠⼥༴ᶵ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 56 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ㖟⾜༴ᶵ࡛ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ⤒῭ࡢᝏࡼࡿ㖟⾜࣮ࣟࣥࡢつᶍ࡞ࢹࣇ࢛ࣝࢺࡣࠊከ ࡃࡢ㖟⾜ࡢ⣧㈨⏘࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ㈨ᮏࡢẋᦆࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࠋ㖟⾜ࡢ㈨ᮏࡣ㈨⏘࣐ࢼࢫ㈇മ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ㈨⏘ࡢኴ᐀ࡣ㖟⾜࣮࡛ࣟࣥ࠶ࡾࠊ㈇മࡣ㢳ᐈࡢ㡸㔠࠸࠺ᙧែ࡛ࡢമົࡽ࡞ࡿࠋ㖟⾜ࡣ㡸 㔠⪅࠸࠺㈨㔠వయࡽ㈨㔠ࢆࡾࠊࡑࡢ㈨㔠࡛ࣅࢪࢿࢫᣑࢆィ⏬ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿேࠊఫᏯ ㉎ධࢆᕼᮃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿே㈚ࡋ࠼ࡿࠋ ⤒῭ࡢᝏࡼࡾ㖟⾜ࡢ㈚ࡀ↔ࡆࡅࡤࠊࡑࡢ㈨⏘౯್ࡣῶᑡࡋࠊࡑࡢศ㈨ᮏࡣẋᦆࡍ ࡿࠋ㈇മࡀ㈨⏘ࢆୖᅇࢀࡤࠊࡑࡢ㖟⾜ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡣ࣐ࢼࢫ࡞ࡾࠊ◚⥢ࡍࡿࠋ㖟⾜㈨ᮏࡢ ẋᦆࠊ㖟⾜ࡢ◚ࡓࢇࡣ㖟⾜ࣃࢽࢵࢡࢆ⏕ࡳࠊᙜࡽࢀࡓఫᏯࠊၟᴗ㈨⏘ࠊᰴᘧ࡞ࡢᢞ ࡆࡾࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࠊࡀጞࡲࡿࠋ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡣୗⴠࢆ⥆ࡅࠊᡭࡣᢸಖࡢ㏣ຍࢆồࡵࡽࢀ ࡿࠋ࣮ࣟࣥࡢ↔ࡆࡁࡣࡉࡽቑຍࡋࠊ㖟⾜㈨ᮏࡢẋᦆࡣࡉࡽ῝้࡞ࡾࠊ㈚ᇶ‽ࡀཝ ࡋࡃ࡞ࡾࠊ㈚ࡋࡾࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࠋ ᡭ࡛࠶ࡿࠊᴗࡶᐙィࡶᝏࡍࡿᬒẼࡢୗ࡛ࡣࠊമົࢆቑࡸࡍࡇࢆ㑊ࡅࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡿࠋ ಙ⏝ࡀᛴ㏿⦰ࡋࠊ⤒῭࠾ࡅࡿ㈨㔠ࡢᯤῬࡀጞࡲࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣ⤒῭άືࢆࡉࡽᝏࡉࡏࠊ ࡉࡽࢹࣇ࢛ࣝࢺࢆ⏕ࡳࠊ㖟⾜ಽ⏘ࢆቑࡸࡋࠊಙ⏝⦰ࡣ⃭ࡋࡃ࡞ࡿࠋ㈇ࡢ㐃㙐ᛂࡀ㉳ࡁ ࡿࠋ Ṕྐⓗぢࡿࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛ከࡃࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࡓࠋࡑࡢࡶࡗࡶࡁ࡞ࡶࡢࡣ 1929 ᖺࡢࢽ࣮࣮ࣗࣚࢡᰴ౯ᭀⴠጞࡲࡿୡ⏺㔠⼥༴ᶵ1࡛࠶ࡾࠊ᭱㏆࡛ࡣ 1990 ᖺ๓ᚋ㉳ࡁࡓࠊ ࣀ࢙࣮ࣝ࢘ࠊࣇࣥࣛࣥࢻࠊࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࢹࣥࡢḢࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࠊࡑࡋ࡚ 1992 ᖺ௨㝆ࠊࡃ 1998ࠊ99 ᖺࡢ᪥ᮏࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡀ࠶ࡿ2ࠋ ᮏ✏࡛ᢅ࠺ 2000 ᖺึࡵ㉳ࡁࡓఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࡶࡑ࠺࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ1990 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙ࡢ⤒῭Ⓨᒎࡣ ┠ぬࡲࡋࡗࡓࠋࡑࡢⓎᒎࡣሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡ࡢ㠉᪂ࡼࡗ࡚ࡁࡃᨭ࠼ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࣥࢱ࣮ ࢿࢵࢺࠊe ࣓࣮ࣝࡀྍ⬟࡞ࡾࠊୡ⏺୰ࡢሗࡀ▐⏝࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓࠋࢢ࣮ࣜࣥ ࢫࣃࣥ⋡࠸ࡿ㐃㑥‽ഛࡢ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࡣ⤯ጁ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࢀࡣࠕ࣐࢚ࢫࢺࣟࠖ⛠࠼ࡽࢀࡓࠋㄡ ࡶࡀࡶ࠺ࡁ࡞ἣࡸࣥࣇࣞࡣࡶ࠺㉳ࡇࡾ࠼࡞࠸ᛮࡗࡓ3ࠋ ᜍៃ๓ࡢ 1920 ᖺ௦ࡢ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡀࡲࡉࡑ࠺࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࣇ࢛࣮ࢻࡼࡿ⮬ື㌴⏕⏘ࡢᣑ 1 1929ᖺ―33ᖺࡢᜍៃࡣ㖟⾜Ᏻࢆᢪ࠸ࡓ⾗ࡀಖ㝤ࡢ࡞࠸㡸㔠ゎ⣙ẅ฿ࡋࡓࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㖟⾜ࡣࡶࡶ㡸 㔠㈇മࡢ୍㒊ࢆ⌧㔠ࡶࡋࡃࡣᴟࡵ࡚ὶືᛶࡢ㧗࠸㈨⏘࡛ࡋᣢࡗ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊ㡸㔠ゎ⣙ᛂࡌࡿࡓࡵ㖟⾜ࡣ ㈚ฟࢆᅇࡋࡓࡾࠊമๆࢆ༷ࡋ࡚⌧㔠ࢆᚓࡼ࠺ࡍࡿࠋ㖟⾜ࡀ㈚ฟࢆᅇࡋࠊ㈚ࡋࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡿࠊከࡃࡢṇᖖ ࡞ᡭࡣ㈨㔠ࡀᚓࡽࢀ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡿࠋ⤒῭άືࡣ୍ᗘᢚไࡉࢀࠊࡉࡽⰋമᶒࡀ⏕ࡎࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊ㖟⾜ࡢᚲ Ṛࡢമๆࡾ࡛മๆ౯᱁ࡣᭀⴠࡍࡿࠋമๆ౯᱁ࡢୗⴠࡣ㖟⾜ಖ᭷ࡢമๆୗⴠ࡞ࡾࠊ㈨⏘ࢆࡉࡽຎࡉࡏࡿࡇ ࡞ࡿࠋࡇࡢ≧ἣࡣࡢ㖟⾜ࡍࡄ㣕ࡧⅆࡍࡿࠋࡓ࠼࡞㖟⾜࡛࠶ࡗ࡚ࡶ㡸㔠⪅ࡢᏳࡀ⏕ࡌࢀࡤྠࡌࡼ࠺മๆ ࡢᢞࡆࡾࠊമๆ౯᱁ࡢୗⴠࡀ⏕ࡌࠊ㈚ࡋࡾࠊⰋമᶒࡢቑຍࡇࡢᝏᚠ⎔ࡣ⥆ࡃࡇ࡞ࡿࠋᜍៃࡣࡑࡢ ⤖ᯝᐇ9000௨ୖࡢ㖟⾜ࡀಽ⏘ࡋࡓࠋ 2 G. Reinhart and K. Rogoff㸦2009㸧ࡣࠊࢇࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣࡘࡂࡢ4ࡘࡢฟ᮶ࡢᚋ㉳ࡁࡿࠊ㏙ࡓࠋձ␗ ᖖ࡞ᰴࠊᅵᆅ࡞ࡢ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡢୖ᪼ࠊղᐙィࠊᴗࡢമົ/ᡤᚓ(㈨⏘)ẚ࡛ ࡽࢀࡿࣞࣂࣞࢪࡢୖ᪼ࠊճつᶍ࡞ᅜ㝿 ⓗ࡞㈨ᮏὶධࡑࢀక࠺⤒ᖖᨭࡢ㉥Ꮠࠊմ⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢ㕌ࠋ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣேࠎࡢഫ៏ࠊ⮬ಙ㐣ࡢᚋ㉳ࡁࡿࠋ 3ᢞ㈨ᐙࡣ⤒῭ࡀᏳᐃ࡞ࢀࡤࠊᚲࡎ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀᩆ῭ࡋ࡚ࡃࢀࡿಙࡌษࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃࣥࡢᕦࡳ࡞㔠⼥ ᨻ⟇ࡣࠊࡶࡋ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡀୗⴠࡋ࡚ࡶᶵᩄ࡞㔠⼥⦆࡛༶ᗙୗⴠࢆ㜼Ṇࡋ࡚ࡃࢀࡿಙࡌࡓࠋᢞ㈨ᐙࡣࡇࢀࢆࢢ࣮ࣜ ࣥࢫࣃ࣭ࣥࣉࢵࢺࢇࡔࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 57 ࠊ㐨㊰ࡢᩚഛࡣ࣐࣮࢝ࢆᣢࡕࡑࢀ࡛ྛᆅࢆ᪑⾜ࡍࡿ࠸࠺ᅜẸࡢክࢆᐇ⌧ࡋࡓࠋࣛࢪ࢜ ࡶᛴ㏿ᬑཬࡋࠊ⮬Ꮿᒃ࡞ࡀࡽࡋ࡚㡢ᴦࢆᴦࡋࡴࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓࠋ࣮ࣞࣚࣥࠊ ⣬ᕳࢱࣂࢥࠊ෭ⶶᗜࠊ㟁ヰࠊࡑࡢ㟁Ẽ〇ရࡢୖࡆࡶᛴ㏿ఙࡧࡓࠋ1920 ᖺ௦ࡢᮎ࡞ࡿ ᾏእ᪑⾜⪅ࡶᛴቑࡋࡓࠋ1928 ᖺࡔࡅ࡛ᐇ 43 7000 ேࡢ࣓ࣜ࢝ேࡀ⯪࡛ᾏእฟ ࡅࡓ4ࠋㄡࡶࡀ⦾ᰤ㓉࠸ࡋࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊࡑࡢᚋࣂࣈࣝᔂቯࡀ㉳ࡁࡿࠋ ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ 2007-9 ᖺࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣୡ⣖ึࡵࡢ IT ࣂࣈࣝᔂቯᚋࡢ㔠⼥⦆ࡼࡗ࡚ࡶࡓ ࡽࡉࢀࡓఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࡀࡑࡢᅉ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢୖ᪼ドๆ࠸࠺᪂ࡋ࠸㔠⼥ᢏ ἲࡣࡇࢀࡲ࡛ఫᏯ㉎ධ↓⦕ᛮࢃࢀࡓேࡓࡕࡶ࣐࣮࣒࣍ࡢክࢆᐇ⌧ࡋࡓぢ࠼ࡓࠋ ࡋࡋࡑࢀࡣࠊప㔠ࡀ⥆ࡁࠊఫᏯ౯᱁ࡣ࠸ࡘࡲ࡛ࡶୖ᪼ࡋ⥆ࡅࡿࡇࡀ๓ᥦ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ ࡑࡢ๓ᥦࡀᔂࢀࡓࠊከࡃࡢపᡤᚓᐙィࡣ㏉῭ワࡲࡾࠊఫᏯࢆኻࡗࡓࠋ㈚ᡭࡣྲྀࡾୖࡆࡓ ఫᏯࢆ➇ࡅࡓࡢ࡛ࠊఫᏯ౯᱁ࡣຍ㏿ⓗୗⴠࡋ࡚࠸ࡗࡓࠋ᪉ಶࠎࡢఫᏯᙜࢆࣉ࣮ ࣝࡋ࡚సࡾୖࡆࡽࢀࡓドๆࡣࠊ㧗ᗘ࡞㔠⼥ᢏ⾡ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᕦࡳࣜࢫࢡィ⟬ࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ㖟⾜ ࠾ࡼࡧࡑࡢࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣࡑࡢᏳᛶၥࢆᣢࡘࡇ࡞ࡃಖ᭷ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊࡑࡢ౯್ࡣఫ Ꮿ౯᱁ࡢୗⴠࡼࡗ࡚ᛴ㏿పୗࡋࠊ㖟⾜ࢆྵࡴఱⓒ࠸࠺㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ㈈ົෆᐜࢆ୍ᣲ ᝏࡉࡏࡓࠋ㈨ᮏࡀຎࡋࠊከࡃࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣ㈚ฟࡢῶᑡࢆ⦰ᑠࢆవ࡞ࡃࡉࢀࠊ⌧㔠㑅ዲ ࢆᙉࡵࡓࠋ㧗࠸ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪ࡛㧗┈ࢆୖࡆ࡚࠸ࡓ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࠊ㏫ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࡢࣉࣟࢭࢫࡀാ ࠸ࡓࠋ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡣࡾ୍Ⰽ࡞ࡾịࡘ࠸ࡓࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࣉࣟࢭࢫࢆ⤒࡚ࠊ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ㹇㹋㹄 ࢆࡋ࡚ࠕᡓᚋ᭱ᝏࡢἣ䛃5ゝࢃࡋࡵࡿࠊἣࢆ⏕ࡳࡔࡋࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 㔠⼥༴ᶵ㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣከࡃࡢ◊✲ࡀ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࣂࣈࣝᔂቯࡢ㐣⛬࡛ࠊ㈨⏘ࡢΎ⟬ࡀᐇែ ⤒῭࣐ࢼࢫࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍࡇࢆ᭱ึ᫂ࡽࡋࡓࡢࡣࠊI.Fisher㸦1933㸧࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ᙼࡣᴗ㈨⏘࣐ࢼࢫࡢࢩࣙࢵࢡࡀ㉳ࡁࡓࡁࠊࡑࢀࡽࡢドๆࢆ༷ࡋࠊമົ㏉῭ᑐᛂ ࡍࡿࡀࠊࡑࡢࡼ࠺࡞㈨⏘༷ࡀ⏘ฟ౯᱁ࡢపୗࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࠋ≀౯ୗⴠࡼࡗ࡚മົࡢᐇ㉁౯ ್ࡀୖ᪼ࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊࡉࡽ࡞ࡿ㈨⏘༷ࡀ⏕ࡌࡿࠋࡑࢀࡀമົࢹࣇࣞࡢᝏᚠ⎔ࢆ⏕ࡴࡇ ࡞ࡿࠊࡇࢆ᫂ࡽࡋࡓࠋࡘࡲࡾࠊമົ㏉῭ࡣಶูయࡗ࡚ࡣྜ⌮ⓗ࡞⾜ື࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊ ࡑࢀࡣമົࡢᢞࡆࡾࢆᣍࡁࠊ⤖ᯝࡋ࡚മົࢆῶࡽࡏࡤῶࡽࡍࠊമົࢆቑࡸࡍ࠸࠺ ⓶⫗࡞⤖ᯝࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࠋFisher ࡣࡇࢀࢆࠕ೧࡞ࣃࣛࢻࢵࢡࢫࠖࢇࡔࠋ ᭱㏆ࡢ◊✲ࡣࠊമๆࡢࡼ࠺࡞㔠⼥㈨⏘ࡢ༷ࡀ࡞ࡐᐇែ⤒῭ࢆᝏࡉࡏࡿࡢࢆ᫂ࡽ ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋドๆ౯᱁ࡢኚࡀ࡞ࡐࠊドๆࡢࡾᡭࡽ㈙࠸ᡭࡢᐩࡢ⛣㌿ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍࡔࡅ࡛ ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ≀⌮ⓗ㈨ᮏᙧᡂࢆጉࡆࡿࡢࢆド᫂ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋBernake㸦1983㸧ࡣ Friedman and Shwartz㸦1963㸧ࡢ㈌ᖯ㔞ࡢῶᑡࡀᜍៃࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡋࡓ࠸࠺ㄝᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࠶ࢀࡔࡅࡢ㛗 ᮇࢃࡓࡿ῝้࡞ἣࢆ㈌ᖯࡢῶᑡࡢࡳ࡛ㄝ᫂ࡍࡿࡢࡣ⣡ᚓ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࡋ࡚ࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ㈚ ฟࡋὀ┠ࡋࡓࠋ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ◚ࡓࢇࡼࡾ㈚ฟࡋࡀࡁࡃῶᑡࡋࡓࡇࡀࠊᜍៃࡢཎᅉ࡛ ࠶ࡿᙇࡋࡓࠋᙼࡣ Fisher ࡢࢹࢆࡉࡽᣑᙇࡋ࡚ࠊ≀౯ୗⴠࡀࡁࡃ࡞ࡿࠊᡭ ࡢ◚⏘࡛㖟⾜ࡢ㈨⏘ࡣຎࡍࡿࡀࠊྡ┠್࡛⾲♧ࡉࢀࡓ㖟⾜ࡢ㈇മࡣ୍ᐃ࡛࠶ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ㈨⏘ 4 Allen, Frederick Lewis (1931) (⸨ஂ࣑ࢿヂ࣮࣭࢚ࠗ࢜ࣥࣜࢫࢱࢹ㸸1920ᖺ௦࣓ࣜ࢝࠘⟃ᦶ᭩ᡣࠊ1993ᖺ) 5 IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2009. 58 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ࣐ࢼࢫ㈇മ࡛ᐃ⩏ࡉࢀࡿ㈨ᮏࡣῶᑡࡍࡿࠋࡇࡢ≧ἣࡀ㐍ࡵࡤ㖟⾜ࡣ◚ࡓࢇࡢ㐨ࢆ㐍ࡲࡊࡿ ࢆᚓ࡞࠸ࠋ◚ࡓࢇ⮳ࡽ࡞ࡃ࡚ࡶࠊ㖟⾜ࡣ㈚ฟࢆ㑊ࡅࠊࡼࡾᏳ࡞ᅜമ࡞ࡢᢞ㈨⛣⾜ ࡍࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞≧ἣࡢ୰࡛࠸ࡃࡽ㧗࠸㔠ࢆࡅ࡚ࡶ㈨㔠ࢆᚓࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ᡭࡀቑ ࠼ࡿࠋࡃࠊ୰ᑠᴗࡢཷࡅࡿᡴᧁࡣࡁ࠸ࠋ୰ᑠᴗࡢሙྜࡣᴗẚ࡚♫മࡸ ᰴᘧࡢⓎ⾜ࡼࡗ࡚㈨㔠ࢆ࠼ࡿࡇࡀ㞴ࡋ࠸ࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋBernake and Gertler (1989) ࡣࠊ ඛࡢ㆟ㄽࢆࡼࡾ⢭⦓ࡋࡓࣔࢹࣝࢆᵓ⠏ࡋ࡚ࠊᡭ㈚ࡋᡭࡢ㛫Ꮡᅾࡍࡿሗࡢ㠀ᑐ⛠ᛶ ࡀ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡢᛶࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡋࠊᴗࡢ⣧㈨⏘ᑐࡍࡿ࣐ࢼࢫࢩࣙࢵࢡࡣᴗࡢᢸಖ ⬟ຊࢆୗࡆࠊධ⬟ຊࢆῶᑡࡉࡏࠊࡉࡽᴗࡢタഛᢞ㈨ィ⏬ࢆ⦰ᑠࡋࠊᴗᢞ㈨ࢆῶࡽࡍࠋ ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝᬒẼࡀࡁࡃᝏࡍࡿㄽࡌࡓࠋKiyotaki and Moore (1997) ࡣࠊྠࡌᩥ⬦ࡢ୰࡛ࠊ ⢭⦓࡞ࣔࢹࣝࢆᒎ㛤ࡋࡓࠋᙼࡽࡣ␗Ⅼ㛫ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊᅵᆅࡢᢞࡆࡾࠊࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࡢ పୗࡼࡾᆅ౯ࡀୗⴠࡋࠊࡉࡽᆅ౯ࡢୗⴠࡀࠊ㎰ሙ࠾ࡼࡧᙼࡽࡢᢞ㈨ࡢ⣧౯್ࢆࡶῶᑡࡉ ࡏࡿࡇࢆ᫂ࡽࡋࡓࠋ 㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢ㐍ᒎࡢ㐣⛬࠾࠸࡚ࠊఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࡢ◚ࡀ㈨⏘౯᱁ࢆᛴⴠࡉࡏࠊࣇࢭ࣮ ࣝࡀࡑࢀᢿ㌴ࢆࡅࡿࠊ࠸࠺୍㐃ࡢࢫࢺ࣮ࣜࡀᥥࡅࡿࠋࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡣ㖟⾜ࡢពᛮỴ ᐃࢆᕥྑࡋ㔠⼥༴ᶵ⏒࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆᣢࡘࡇࡣ᫂ࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢⅬࡘ࠸࡚ࡢ◊✲ࡶ㐍ࢇ ࡛࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢⅬࡣࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡢ⠇࡛ᢅ࠺ࠋ Ϩ 㔠⼥⦆㸫ఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࡢⴌⱆ ࣓ࣜ࢝⤒῭ࡣࠊᐇ㉁ GDP ࡢ᥎⛣ࢆ♧ࡋࡓᅗ⾲ 1 ࡽศࡿࡼ࠺ࠊ1992-1999 ᖺᛴ ㏿ᡂ㛗ࡋࡓࡀࠊ2000-2007 ᖺࡣⴭࡋࡃࡋࠊቑຍࡋࡓമົ㏉῭ࢆ㞴ࡋࡃࡋࡓࠋ࠸ࡃࡘ ࡶࡢ⤒῭ᣦᶆࡣ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢ฿᮶ࢆ♧ࡋࡓࠋ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢ᭱ࡢ๓ࡣ 2000-2006 ᖺࡢື⏘౯ ᱁ࡢᛴୖ࡛᪼࠶ࡿࠋᰴᘧᕷሙࡣ 1990 ᖺ௦ࡣ⤒῭ࡢዲㄪࡉࢆᫎࡋ࡚ࠊ㡰ㄪୖ᪼ࢆ⥆ࡅ ࡓࠋ⤒῭ࡣ᪂ࡋ࠸ẁ㝵ධࡗࡓಙࡌࡽࢀࡓࠋࢽ࣮࢚ࣗࢥࣀ࣑࣮ࡣ⏕⏘ᛶࢆ㧗ࡵࠊࡑࡢྍ⬟ ᛶࢆேࠎࡣಙࡌࠊ₶ᮇᚅࡣ㧗ࡲࡗࡓࠋࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃࣥࡣḟࡢࡼ࠺㏙࡚࠸ࡿ6ࠋࠕࡇࢀࡲ ࡛ࡢᡤࠊ⚾ࡓࡕࡢ⤒῭ࡣࣉࣛࢫࡢᚠ⎔ࢆ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿࠋຍ㏿ࡍࡿ⏕⏘ᛶࡣᑗ᮶ࡢᴗ┈ࢆ㧗 ࡵࠊᰴ౯ୖ᪼ᢿ㌴ࢆࡅࠊࡑࡋ࡚ࠊ⏕⏘ᛶࡢୖ᪼ࡣࣥࣇࣞࡢᢚไ⧅ࡀࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ≀౯ ࡢഹ࡞ୖ᪼ࠊሀᐇ࡞ಙ⏝≧ἣࡢୗ࡛ࠊୖ᪼ࡍࡿᰴ౯ࡣᨭฟࢆಁ㐍ࡋࠊࡑࢀࡀࠊḟࡣ⏘ฟࠊ 㞠⏝ࢆᣑࡋࠊ㈨ᮏᢞ㈨ࢆ㧗ࡵࠊ⏕⏘ᛶࢆྥୖࡉࡏ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࠖࡉࡽࠊ ࠕఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥ㔠ࡢప ୗࡼࡗ࡚ࠊከࡃࡢᐙィࡣఫᏯࢆ㉎ධࡋࠊࡲࡓമົࡢ࠼ࢆ࠾ࡇ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ ᐙィࡗ࡚മົࡢࢥࢫࢺࡀపୗࡋࡓࡇࡽࠊධࢀࡀᐜ᫆࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡑࢀࡀࡲࡓᾘ㈝㟂 せࢆ㧗ࡵ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝⤒῭ࡣᙉ࠸ᡂ㛗పࣥࣇࣞࡼࡗ࡚ࠊࡇࡢ༙ୡ⣖࡛ࡶ ࡗࡶ⣲ᬕࡽࡋ࠸⤒῭Ⓨᒎࢆ㐙ࡆ࡚࠸ࡿࠖ㏙ࠊࡑࡢᚋࡢఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࢆ㉳ࡉࡏ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃࣥࡢ㊧ࢆ⥅࠸ࡔࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡶࡇࡢᮇ㛫ࡢ࣓ࣜ࢝⤒῭ࡢዲㄪࡉࢆࠕ೧࡞ࡿᏳ ᐃ㸦Great Moderation㸧 ࠖࡧࠊࡑࡢཎᅉࡣࢢ࣮ࣜࢫࣃࣥ⋡࠸ࡿ FRB ࡢ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࡢᡂᯝ࡛ 6 Greenspan (1998) ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 59 ࠶ࡿ⪃࠼ࡓ7ࠋ ࡋࡋࠊ⓶⫗ࡶࡑࡢᚋᰴ౯ࡣᭀⴠࡋࡓࠋࣥࢱ࣮ࢿࢵࢺ㛵㐃ᰴࡀከᩘࢆ༨ࡵࡿࢼࢫࢲࢵ ࢡᣦᩘࡣࠊ1990 ᖺ௦ᮎࡢ IT ࣂࣈࣝࡢ㇟ᚩ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀࠊ2000 ᖺึࡵࡢࣆ࣮ࢡࡽ 2001 ᖺᮎ ࡣ 60㸣ࡶୗⴠࡋࡓࠋS&P500 ᰴ౯ᣦᩘࡶᅗ⾲ 2 ࡛♧ࡍࡼ࠺ࠊ2000 ᖺ 7 ᭶ࡢ᭱㧗್ 1461 ࡽ 2001 ᖺ 10 ᭶ࡣ 1077 ࠊ30㸣㏆ࡃୗⴠࡋࡓࠋ ࡇࡢᛴ⃭࡞ᰴ౯ୗⴠᑐᛂࡋ࡚ࠊ2000 ᖺࡽᖜ࡞㔠⼥⦆ࡀᐇࡉࢀࡓࠋ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢᨻ ⟇㔠࡛࠶ࡿ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࡣ 2000 ᖺ 7 ᭶ࡢ 6.54㸣ࡽ 2003 ᖺ 12 ᭶ࡢ 0.98㸣ࡲ࡛ࢃࡎ 3 ᖺ ࠶ࡲࡾ࡛ࠊᐇ 6㸣㏆ࡃࡶୗࡆࡽࢀࡓࠋࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃࣥࡣ࣓ࣜ࢝⤒῭ࡣࢹࣇࣞ㝗ࡿุ ᩿ࡋࡓࠋ࣓ࣜ࢝⤒῭ࡶ᪥ᮏྠࡌ㛗ᮇࡢࢹࣇࣞἣ㝗ࡿ⪃࠼ࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᙜࠊFRB ࡢ⌮࡛࠶ࡾ⌧㐃㖟㆟㛗࡛࠶ࡿࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡶ 2002 ᖺ 11 ᭶ࠊ᪥ᮏࡢ㛗ᮇἣࢆᣲࡆ࡞ ࡀࡽࠊࡓ࠼ࠊ⤒῭ࡀࢹࣇࣞ㝗ࡾࠊ㔠ࡀࢮࣟୗ㝈㐩ࡋࡓࡋ࡚ࡶࠊᨻ⟇ࡢవᆅࡣࡲࡔ ࠶ࡿࠋ㔠ࡣࢮࣟ௨ୗୗࡆࡿࡇࡣ࡛ࡁ࡞ࡃ࡚ࡶࠊ⤒῭༑ศ࡞࣐ࢿ࣮ࢆ౪⤥ࡍࢀࡤࠊࡑ ࢀࡣ࠸ࡘࡶ᭱ᚋࡣࢹࣇࣞࢆゎᾘࡋ࡚ࡃࢀࡿࡽࡔ㸦Sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation.㸧ࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊࡇࢀࡣࠕ࣑ࣝࢺ࣭ࣥࣇ࣮ࣜࢻ࣐ࣥࡢ᭷ྡ ࡞ࠗ࣊ࣜࢥࣉࢱ࣮࣭࣐ࢿ࣮㸦helicopter drop of money㸧࠘ᮏ㉁ⓗྠࡌᨻ⟇ࡔࠖᴟࡵ࡚ ᴦほⓗ࡞࣐ࢿࢱࣜࢫࢺࡢㄽ㝕ࢆࡣࡗࡓ8ࠋ ᐇࠊᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ᣦᩘࡢඛ⾜ᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡿ⏕⏘⪅≀౯ᣦᩘ㸦Producer Price Index: PPI㸧ࡣ ᫂ࡽ 1999 ᖺ௨㝆࣐ࢼࢫࡢࢺࣞࣥࢻࢆ♧ࡋጞࡵࡓࠋᅗ⾲ 3 ࡛♧ࡍࡼ࠺ࠊᑐ๓᭶ẚ࡛ ぢࡓ≀౯ୖ᪼⋡ࡣ 2002 ᖺࡣ࣐ࢼࢫ࡞ࡗࡓ㸦2002 ᖺ 7 ᭶ࡣ㸫0.33㸣㸧 ࠋᰴ౯ࡢᭀⴠ ຍ࠼࡚ࠊ2001 ᖺ 9 ᭶ࡣ NY ࡛ࢸࣟࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝⤒῭ࡣᝒほ࣒࣮ࢻ㝗ࡗ ࡓࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞≧ἣࡢ୰࡛ࠊࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃࣥ⋡࠸ࡿ FRB ࡣᖜ࡞㔠⼥⦆ࢆᐇࡋࡓࡢ࡛ ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢ㔠⼥⦆ࡣ㛗ࡃ⥆࠸ࡓࠋFF ࣮ࣞࢺࡣ 2003 ᖺ᭱పࡢࣞ࣋ࣝ㐩ࡋࡓᚋࡶ 2004 ᖺ࡞ࡗ࡚ⱝᖸᘬࡁୖࡆࡽࢀࡓࡶࡢࡢࠊ2004 ᖺࡣ࡞࠾ 1㸣ྎࡢపỈ‽࠾ࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ ᅗ⾲ 4 ࡣࠊࢸ࣮࣮ࣛࣝࣝ㔠⌧ᐇࡢ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆᑐẚࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࢸ࣮࣮ࣛࣝ ࣝ㔠ࡣࡶࡋ FRB ࡀ㐣ཤࡢ㡰ㄪ࡛࠶ࡗࡓᮇࡢᨻ⟇ᑐᛂࡋࡓ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࢆᐇࡋࡓሙྜࡢ 㔠࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢᅗࢆぢࡿ㝈ࡾ᫂ࡽ⌧ᐇࡢ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࡣᮃࡲࡋ࠸㔠Ỉ‽ࢆ㐶㥙 ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣ᫂ࡽ㔠⼥ࡀ㐣ᗘ⦆ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡇࢆ♧ࡍࠋࡇࡢᮇࡢつᶍ࡞㔠⼥ ⦆ࡀࡑࡢᚋࡢఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࢆ⏕ࡴࡇ࡞ࡿࠋࢸ࣮ࣛࡣࠊ㔠⼥ᘬ⥾ࡵࢆ 2002 ᖺጞࡵࡿ ࡁࡇࢁࢆ 2004 ᖺࡲ࡛ᘏࡤࡋࡓࡇࡀఫᏯࣂࣈࣝⓎ⏕ࡢཎᅉ⪃࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ ࡚ࠊ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࢆᕦࡳ㐠⏝ࡋ࡚࠸ࢀࡤࣂࣈࣝࡑࡋ࡚ࡑࡢᚋࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ㑊ࡅࡽࢀࡓࡇ࡞ ࡿࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊࡇࢀࡀࠊࣂࣈ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿ࠸࠺ㄆ㆑ࡣᙜࡢ FRB ࡣ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ ࣂࣈࣝࡢึᮇ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ༙ࡤࡢẁ㝵࡛ࠊ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡢୖ᪼ࡀ⤒῭ࡢࣇࣥࢲ࣓ࣥࢱࣝࡢኚ ࡑ࠺࡛࡞ࡃࠊ༢࡞ࡿࣂࣈࣝ࠸࠺ぢᴟࡵࡣኚ㞴ࡋ࠸ࠋᙜࡢ FRB ㆟㛗ࡢࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃ ࣥࡶࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡶࡶࠊFRB ࡣ㈨⏘ࣂࣈࣝࢆᢚ࠼ࡿࡁࡔ࠸࠺ぢゎࡣᙉࡃᑐࡋ࡚࠸ 7 Bernanke (2004) 8 Bernanke (2002) 60 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ࡿࠋࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃࣥࡣ 2002 ᖺ࢝ࣥࢨࢫࢩࢸ㐃㖟࡛㛤ദࡉࢀࡓࠊࢩ࣏ࣥࢪ࣒࢘ࡢෑ㢌₇ ㄝ9࠾࠸࡚ࠊ ࠕFRB ࡛ࡣࠊࣂࣈࣝࠊࡘࡲࡾ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡢ␗ᖖ࡞Ỉ‽ࡲ࡛ࡢᛴୖ᪼㛵ಀࡍࡿㅖ ၥ㢟ࡘ࠸࡚⪃࠼࡚ࡁࡓࠋ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡀୖ᪼ࡍࡿࡘࢀࠊࣂࣈࣝࡔ࠺ࡅࢀࡶࠊࡑࢀࡀᮏ ᙜࣂࣈࣝ࠺ࡣࡑࢀࡀ◚ࡍࡿࡲ࡛ศࡽ࡞࠸ࠖ ࠊࠕࣂࣈࣝࢆ㐺ษ࡞Ỉ‽ᢚ࠼ࡿࡓࡵ ࠊ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀࡢ⛬ᗘ๓ⓗ㔠⼥ᘬ⥾ࡵࢆᐇࡍࢀࡤࡼ࠸ࠊ࠸ࡗࡓࡇࡣฟ᮶࡞࠸┦ ㄯ࡛࠶ࡿࠖ㏙࡚࠸ࡿࠋࢀࡣࡲࡓࠊᴗࠊᐙィ࠾࠸࡚ᛴ㏿ቑຍࡍࡿമົẚ⋡ࡢୖ᪼ ࡘ࠸࡚ࠊࡑࢀࡣ㔠⼥ᢏ⾡ࡢ㧗ࡲࡾࡢ⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿ⪃࠼࡚࠸ࡓࠋࠕᐙィࡢ㈨⏘࣭㈇മẚ⋡ࡣࠊ 1952 ᖺࡢ 7.6㸣ࡽ 2006 ᖺࡣ 19.3㸣㐩ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㠀㔠⼥ᴗࡢ㈨⏘࣭㈇മẚ⋡ࡣࠊ1952 ᖺࡢ 28㸣ࡽ 1993 ᖺࡣ 54㸣ୖ᪼ࡋࡓࡀࠊࡑࡢᚋᴗࡀつᶍ࡞㈈ົయ㉁ࡢᨵၿࢆ㐍ࡵ ࡓ⤖ᯝࠊ2006 ᖺᮎⅬ࡛ 43㸣పୗࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞മົẚ⋡ࠊ࠸ࢃࡺࡿࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪ ࡢ㛗ᮇⓗ࡞ୖ᪼ࡀࡢ⛬ᗘၥ㢟࡞ࡢࢆุ᩿ࡍࡿࡢࡣ㞴ࡋ࠸ࠋ࠸࠺ࡢࡣࠊࣜࢫࢡᅇ㑊ࡣ᫇ ࡽࡶࡶே㛫ࡣഛࢃࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ㛗ᖺࢃࡓࡗ࡚㈇മẚ⋡ࡀ㧗ࡲࡗ࡚ࡁࡓࡢࡣࠊ㔠 ⼥ࡢᰂ㌾ᛶࡀྥୖࡋࠊᑡ࡞ࡃࡶ࠶ࡿỈ‽ࡲ࡛ࡣࣜࢫࢡࢆ㧗ࡵࡿࡇ࡞ࡃࠊ㈇മẚ⋡ࢆ㧗ࡵ ࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓࡽࡔࠋ༡ᡓத┤ᚋࡢ㖟⾜ᐙࡣࠊ㈨⏘ࡢ 5 ศࡢ 2 ࢆ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ ࡛ࡅࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ⪃࠼࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࢀࡼࡾ㧗ࡅࢀࡤࣜࢫࢡࡣ㧗ࡍࡂࡿぢࡽࢀࡓࠋ⌧ᅾ ࡢ㖟⾜ࡣࠊ㈨⏘ࡢ 10 ศࡢ 1 ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ࡛Ᏻࢇࡌ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࢀ࡛ࡶࠊ140 ᖺ๓ࡼࡾ◚ࡓࢇࡣ ᑡ࡞࠸ࠋྠࡌࡇࡣࠊᐙィࡸᴗࡶ࠶࡚ࡣࡲࡿࠋമົẚ⋡ࡢୖ᪼ࡣࠊሗᢏ⾡ࣥࣇࣛ ࢫࢺࣛࢡࢳ࣮ࣕࡢࡵࡊࡲࡋ࠸ྥୖࡢ⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡾࠊே㛫ࡢࣜࢫࢡពḧࡀቑ㐍ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ ᛮࢃࢀࡿࠋ10ࠖࡲࡓࠊࢀࡣࠕドๆࡸ࢜ࣉࢩ࣭ࣙࣥࣉࣛࢩࣥࢢ࠸ࡗࡓ㔠⼥ࣀ࣮࣋ ࢩࣙࣥࡼࡾࣜࢫࢡศᩓࢆᅗࡿ㧗ᗘ࡞᪂ࡋ࠸ᡭẁࡀ⏕ࡳฟࡉࢀࠊఫᏯࡢࡼ࠺ᚑ᮶ࡣ㠀ὶື ⓗࡔࡗࡓ㈨⏘ࡢὶືᛶࡀ㧗ࡲࡗࡓࠊࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࡢ౯᱁ࡀࢇࢇ್ୖࡀࡾࡍࡿࡢ ࡣṇᖖ࡞ࡢࡔࠖᢡゐࢀ࡚ᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡓ11ࠋ ࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡶ FRB ⌮ᑵ௵๓ࡢ 2001 ᖺࠕ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡢ㈐ົ࡛࠶ࡿᡂ㛗≀౯Ᏻᐃࢆ⬣ ࡉ࡞࠸ࡂࡾࠊఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢືྥ࠶ࡲࡾ⚄⤒㉁࡞ࡗ࡚ࡣࡅ࡞࠸ࠖ㏙࡚࠸ࡿ12ࠋࡲࡓࠊ 2004 ᖺࡣࠊ㐺ษ࡞⼥㈨ᇶ‽㉳ᅉࡍࡿఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࡣつไ࡛ࡶࡗ࡚ᑐᛂࡍࡁ࡛࠶ࡗ࡚ࠊ 㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࡢ⠊࡛ࡣ࡞࠸㏙࡚࠸ࡿࠋ࣑ࢿ࣏ࣜࢫ㐃㖟㆟㛗ࣟࣝࢽࢵࢡ㸦Arthur J. Rolnick㸧ࡢࣥࢱࣅ࣮࡛ࣗḟࡢࡼ࠺⟅࠼࡚࠸ࡿ13ࠋ ࣟࣝࢽࢵࢡࡢ㉁ၥ㸸 ࠕ࠸ࡃࡘࡢᕷሙࡣᢞᶵⓗࣂࣈࣝࡢⴌⱆࡀぢࡽࢀࡿࠊ࠸࠺ேࡓࡕࡀ࠸ࡿࠋࢻࢵࢺࢥ࣒ 㒊㛛࡛ࡣࠊ㈨⏘ࣂࣈࣝࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡶ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊఫᏯᕷሙࡶᢞᶵⓗࣂࣈࣝࡀ Ⓨ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿゝ࠺ேࡶ࠸ࡿࠋࣂࣈࣝࡣ᩿ᐃ࡛ࡁࡿࡶࡢ࡛ࡋࡻ࠺ࠋࡶࡋࠊ࡛ࡁࡿ࡞ࡽ୰ኸ 9 Greenspan (2002) 10 Greenspan (2007) pp.359-340.㸦㑥ヂpp.145-146㸧 11 G. Reinhart and K. Rogoff (2009) 㑥ヂp.308㸬 12 Bernanke and Mark Gertler (2001) 13 Rolnick (2004) ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 61 㖟⾜ࡋ࡚ࡣ࠸ᑐᛂࡍࡁ࡛ࡋࡻ࠺㸽ࠖ ࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡢ⟅࠼㸸 ࠕ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀ㈨⏘ᕷሙࣂࣈࣝࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡢ࠺▱ࡿࡇࡣࠊ๓ࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ ࡃࠊᚋⓗࡶ㞴ࡋ࠸ࠋ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡀୖ᪼ࡋࠊࡑࡋ࡚ࡧୗⴠࡋࡓ࠸࠺ᐇࡔࡅ࡛ࡶࡗ࡚ࠊ ౯᱁ࡀࣇࣥࢲ࣓ࣥࢱࣝࢬࡽ㞳ࡋࡓ࠸࠺ព࡛ࠊࣂࣈࣝࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡣゝ ࠼࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡢୖࠊࡶࡋࣂࣈࣝࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡋ࡚ࡶࠊࡑࢀࢆᙎࡅࡉࡏࡿࡇࡣࠊᕷሙ࠾ࡼ ࡧ⤒῭ࡢ᪉ΰࢆ㉳ࡇࡉ࡞࠸࠸࠺ಖドࡣ࡞ࡶ࡞࠸ࠋ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡋ࡚ࡣࠊ▷ᮇ㔠ࢆ ⏝࠸࡚ࠊ≀౯࠾ࡼࡧ⏘ฟࡢᏳᐃᑾຊࡍࡿࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀ㔠ࢆࡗ࡚ࠊ㈨⏘౯᱁ࢆ 㐺ᙜ࡞Ỉ‽Ᏻᐃࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡞࡚ࡶ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸┦ㄯ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑ࠺࠸ࡗࡓ㢮ࡢᨻ⟇ࡣ㈨⏘౯ ᱁ࢆࡁࡃୗⴠࡉࡏࡿࡔࡅ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ⤒῭యࢆΰࡉࡏࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࡣṔྐࡀド᫂ࡋ ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࠖ ᅗ⾲ 1 ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢᐇ㉁ GDP ᡂ㛗⋡ 6 4 2 ᡂ㛗⋡ 2010-01-01 2008-09-01 2007-05-01 2006-01-01 2004-09-01 2003-05-01 2002-01-01 2000-09-01 1999-05-01 1998-01-01 1996-09-01 1995-05-01 1994-01-01 1992-09-01 1991-05-01 -2 1990-01-01 0 -4 -6 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧 62 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ᅗ⾲ 2 S&P500㸦ࢫࢱࣥࢲ࣮ࢻ࣭ࣥࢻ࣭ࣉ࣮ࢬ⥲ྜ 500 ✀ᰴ౯ᣦᩘ㸧 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧 ᅗ⾲ 3 ≀౯ኚ⋡㸦PPIࠊᑐ๓᭶ẚ㸧 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 -1 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧 2003-09-01 2003-05-01 2003-01-01 2002-09-01 2002-05-01 2002-01-01 2001-09-01 2001-05-01 2001-01-01 2000-09-01 2000-05-01 2000-01-01 1999-09-01 1999-05-01 -0.5 1999-01-01 0 㸦ฟᡤ㸧J.Taylor (2011) ᅗ⾲ 5 㛗ᮇ㔠 FF ࣮ࣞࢺ 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧 2007-02-01 2006-09-01 2006-04-01 2005-11-01 2005-06-01 2005-01-01 2004-08-01 2004-03-01 2003-10-01 2003-05-01 2002-12-01 2002-07-01 2002-02-01 2001-09-01 2001-04-01 2000-11-01 2000-06-01 2000-01-01 ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ ᅗ⾲ 4 FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢸ࣮࣮ࣛࣝࣝ㔠 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 63 64 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 2000 ᖺࡽ 2002 ᖺࡅ࡚ࡢᰴ౯ୗⴠࠊ2001 ᖺ 9 ᭶ࡢࢸࣟᨷᧁࠊ2001 ᖺࡽࡢᬒẼᚋ ㏥ᑐࡋ࡚⥆ࡅࡽࢀ࡚ࡁࡓ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ2003 ᖺ༙ࡤࡣ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࡣ 1㸣ࡲ࡛ ୗࡀࡾࠊࡑࡢᚋ 1 ᖺ㛫ࡣࡑࡢప㔠ࡀ⥔ᣢࡉࢀࡓࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊ㐃㑥‽ഛࡣ 2004 ᖺ 6 ᭶ࡽ ࡰ 3 ᖺࡪࡾᨻ⟇㔠ࢆୖ᪼ࡉࡏࡓࠋࡇࢀࡘ࠸࡚ࠊࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃࣥࡣࠊ2004 ᖺ 7 ᭶ࡢ㆟ ドゝ࡛ࠊ㞠⏝ࡣᨵၿࡋࠊࢹࣇࣞᅽຊࡣᾘ࠼ࠊࡴࡋࢁࠊཎἜ౯᱁㧗㦐ࡼࡾࠊࣥࣇࣞഴྥ ࡀぢࡽࢀࠊ⡿ᅜ⤒῭ࢆ㛗ᮇᏳᐃ㌶㐨ࡏࡿࡓࡵୖࡆࢆࡋࡓㄝ᫂ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ14ࠋࡑࡢᚋ ࡶ㔠ୖ᪼ࢆ⥆ࡅࠊ2004 ᖺ 11 ᭶ࡣ 2㸣ࠊ2005 ᖺ 5 ᭶ࡣ 3㸣ࠊ11 ᭶ 4㸣✚ᴟⓗ ᨻ⟇㔠࡛࠶ࡿ㹄㹄࣮ࣞࢺࢆୖ᪼ࡉࡏࠊ㔠⼥ᘬࡁ⥾ࡵࡗࡓࡀࠊ㛗ᮇ㔠࣮ࣔࢤ࣮ࢪ 㔠ࡣୖ᪼ࡏࡎࠊ㏫ୗⴠࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ⾲ 6㸧 ࠋࢢ࣮ࣜࣥࢫࣃࣥࡣ 2005 ᖺ 2 ᭶ࡢ㆟ドゝ15࡛ࠊ ࠕFF ࡇࢀࢆࠕമๆᕷሙࡢㅦ㸦Conundrum㸧ࠖࡧࠊࡲࡓࠊ2005 ᖺ 5 ᭶ࡢ㆟ドゝ16࡛ࡣࠊ ࣮ࣞࢺࡣ 2 ࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ࣭࣏ࣥࢺୖࡆࡓࡢࠊ㈈ົ┬ドๆࡢ㛗ᮇᅇࡾࡣ᫂ࡽୗⴠࡋ࡚ ࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࡇࡣ᭱㏆࡛ࡣ࡞ࡗࡓࡇ࡛࠶ࡾࡲࡍࠋ10 ᖺ≀ࡢ㈈ົ┬ドๆࡢᅇࡾࡣ ⣙ 4㸣࡛ࠊ1 ᖺ๓ẚ࡚ 80 ࣋ࢩࢫ࣭࣏ࣥࢺࡶୗⴠࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࡲࡍࠋᴗമ࠸ࡓࡗ࡚ࡣࠊ ࡉࡽపୗࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࡲࡍࠋ࣭࣭࣭࣭10 ᖺ≀ࡢ㈈ົ┬ドๆࡢ㔠ࡀ␗ᖖప࠸ࡇࠊࡋࡓࡀࡗ ࡚࣮ࣔࢤ࣮ࢪ㔠ࡢప࠸ࡇࡀ᭱㏆ࡢఫᏯ౯᱁ᛴ㦐ࡢཎᅉ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࡣ࠸ࡢవᆅࡶࡈࡊ࠸ ࡲࡏࢇࠋ࣓ࣜ࢝యࡋ࡚ࡣࠊఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࡣⓎ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ࡲࡏࢇࡀࠊᆅᇦࡼࡗ࡚ࡣ␗ᖖ࡞ Ỉ‽ࡲ࡛ఫᏯ౯᱁ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࡲࡍࠋ ࠖ㏙࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊࡇࡢ⟅࠼ࡣࡣࡗࡁࡾࡋ࡚ ࠸ࡿࠋ᪥ᮏࠊࢻࢶࠊ୰ᅜࠊ࡞ࡢ㈨㔠వࡀ㇏ᐩ࡞ᅜࡽࠊ㔞ࡢ㈨㔠ࡀ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㛗ᮇ 㔠⼥ᕷሙὶࢀ㎸ࢇࡔࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋWarnock and Warnock (2005) ࠾ࡼࡧ Caballero and Krishnamurthy (2009) ࡣࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ⤒῭ࡢ㐍ᒎࠊᾏእࡢ㈨㔠వࡀ࣓ࣜ࢝ྥ࠸ࠊఫ Ꮿࣂࣈࣝࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡋࡓ㏙࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡃࠊWarnock and Warnock ࡣࠊẚ㍑ⓗ᪩࠸ ᮇࠊᾏእࡽࡢ㈨㔠ὶධࡀ⡿ᅜࡢ㛗ᮇ㔠ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆ࠼࡚࠸ࡿᣦࡋࡓࠋᙼࡽࡢ ᐇド◊✲ࡼࢀࡤࠊᾏእࡽࡢ㈨㔠ὶධࡀ࡞ࡗࡓࡋࡓࡽࠊ10 ᖺ≀ࡢᅜമᅇࡾࡣ 150 ࣮࣋ࢩࢫ࣏ࣥࢺ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠊࡲࡓᖹᆒⓗ࡞㈨㔠ὶධᡠࡗࡓࡔࡅ࡛ࡶࠊ㛗ᮇ㔠 ࡣ 105 ࣮࣋ࢩࢫ࣏ࣥࢺపୗࡋࡓ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺᥎ᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ϩ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡢࢺࣜࢵࢡ 㸯㸬ᮭ࡞㈚ᇶ‽ ᅜෆ㔠⼥ࡢᖜ࡞⦆࠾ࡼࡧᾏእࡽࡢ㈨㔠ὶධࡀ㐍ࡴ୰࡛ࠊ㖟⾜㈚ࡃື⏘㈚ ࡣᛴ㏿ቑຍࡋ࡚࠸ࡗࡓ㸦ᅗ⾲ 6㸧 ࠋ 14 Greenspan (2004) 15 Greenspan (2005a) 16 Greenspan (2005b) ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 65 ᅗ⾲ 6 ၟᴗ㈚ື⏘㈚㸦ᑐ๓᭶ẚ㸧 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧 ࡉࡽࠊ㔠⼥⦆ྜࢃࡏࡿࡼ࠺ࠊつไ⦆ࡀ࡞ࡋᔂࡋⓗ㐍⾜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࡢ୍ࡘࡀ ㈚ᇶ‽ࡢᖜ࡞⦆࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ㏻ᖖఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࢆཷࡅࡿሙྜࡣࠊ┦ᙜࡢ㢌㔠࠾ࡼࡧẖ᭶ ࡢ㏉῭᮲௳ࡀ‶ࡓࡉࢀࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࡢ㈚ᴗ⪅ࡣࡇࡢᇶ‽ࢆୗࡆࡓࠋࡑࡢᇶ‽ ⦆ࡣࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡣᙜᒁࡼࡗ࡚⚗ࡌࡽࢀ࡚ࡁࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋఫᏯ㈨㔠ධᚲせ࡞᭩㢮ࡢ࠸ ࡽ࡞࠸㸦ბࡘࡁ㸧࣮ࣟࣥࠊ㢌㔠ࢮࣟࡢ࣮ࣟࣥࠊ㢌㔠ࡇࢁᡭ⥆ࡁ㈝⏝ࡉ࠼ᨭᡶ࠺⬟ຊࡢ࡞ ࠸ᾘ㈝⪅ᑐࡍࡿ࣮ࣟࣥࠊᙜึࡢ㏉῭㢠ࢆᏊ‶ࡓ࡞࠸㢠ᢚ࠼࡚ࠊࡑࡢᚋࡣᛴ⃭ᮍᡶ ࠸Ꮚࡀຍ㏿ࡍࡿ࣐ࢼࢫࡢࣔࢸࢮ࣮ࢩ࣮ࣙࣥࣟࣥ㸦amortization loan㸧ࠊࡉࡽࡣࠊ ᭱ึࡢ 2 ᖺ㛫ࡣపࡢඃ㐝㔠㸦teaser rateࠊ㏻ᖖࡣ 3㸣௨ୗ㸧ᅛᐃ࡛ࠊࡑࡢᚋࡣ㧗࠸ᕷሙ 㔠ࡢኚື㔠࡞ࡿኚື㔠࣮ࣟࣥ㸦Adjustable-Rate Mortgages; ARM㸧࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡇ ࢀࡽࡢ࣮ࣟࣥࡣࠕᡤᚓ࡞ࡋ No Incomeࠊ࡞ࡋ No Jobࠊ㈨⏘࡞ࡋ No Assetࠖࡢேࡓࡕ ᑐࡋ࡚ࡢ࣮ࣟࣥ࠸࠺ࢃࡅ࡛ࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ㢌ᩥᏐࢆࡗ࡚ᚸ⪅㸦NINJA㸧࣮ࣟࣥゝࢃࢀࡓࠋ ఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࡀ⭾ࡽࡴࡘࢀ࡚ࠊᶆ‽ⓗ࡞ 30 ᖺᅛᐃ㔠ࡢఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࡣ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡾࠊ㉸㔠⼥ ⦆ࡢୗ࡛ࠊࡇࡢ✀ࡢ࣮ࣟࣥࡣᣑࢆ⥆ࡅࡓࠋ㔠࢜ࣥࣜࠊ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ࢜ࣉࢩࣙࣥ ARM ࡣᣑ ࢆ⥆ࡅࠊࡑࡢఫᏯ㈚ࡅ༨ࡵࡿẚ⋡ࡣࠊ2000 ᖺࡢ 10㸣௨ୗࡽ 2005 ᖺࡣ 30㸣௨ ୖࡲ࡛ቑຍࡋࡓࠋ2005 ᖺࡣࢧࣥࣇࣛࣥࢩࢫࢥ࡛ࡣࠊఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࡢ༙ศ௨ୖࠊࣇ࢙ࢽࢵ ࢡࢫࠊࢩࢺࣝࠊࢹࣥࣂࠊ࣡ࢩࣥࢺࣥ DC ࡛ࡣ 40㸣௨ୖࢆ༨ࡵࡿ࠸ࡓࡗࡓࠋ 㔠⼥つไ⦆ࡣ࠸᥎㐍ࡉࢀࠊᡭࡢၟᴗ㖟⾜࠾ࡼࡧ㖟⾜ᣢࡕᰴ♫ࡣࠊࡑࡢᚋࡢ㔠⼥ ༴ᶵ࠸㛵ಀࡍࡿ ABS ࠾ࡼࡧ㔠⼥ὴ⏕ၟရᕷሙ✚ᴟⓗ㛵ࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓࠋ ᡭ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣ ABSࠊࢹࣜࣂࢸࣈᕷሙ࡛ࣅࢪࢿࢫࢳࣕࣥࢫࢆぢฟࡑ࠺ࡋࠊࡑࢀࡽࡢᕷሙࡣ ᛴᣑࡋࡓࠋつไࡢゎ㔘ࡸἲᚊࡶᡭ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࣁࣜࢫࢡᕷሙ࡛ࡢάືࢆᚋ 66 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ᢲࡋࡋࡓࠋつไ⦆ࡢලయⓗ࡞㐍ᒎࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ⠇ࢆᨵࡵ࡚ㄝ᫂ࡍࡿࡀࠊ㖟⾜ᴗົࡢᣑࡀ ᖜㄆࡵࡽࢀࠊࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࠊࢩࢸࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡸ JP ࣔࣝ࢞ࣥࡢࡼ࠺࡞࣓࢞ࣂࣥࢡࡣ࠸ࡑ ࡢᜠᜨࢆཷࡅࡓࠋࡓ࠼ࡤࠊCDS ࢆึࡵ࡚⏕ࡳฟࡋࡓࡢࡣᢞ㈨㖟⾜࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ࡚ࠊJP ࣔࣝ࢞ ࡛ࣥ࠶ࡗࡓࠋ㖟⾜ࡣఏ⤫ⓗ࡞㈚ᴗົࡽࠊࢹࣞࣂࢸࣈྲྀᘬ⛣ࡗ࡚࠸ࡗࡓࠋࡑࢀࡘࢀ ࡚ࠊ㖟⾜ࡢ┈ᵓ㐀ࡣኚࡋࡓࠋ1994 ᖺ௨㝆ࠊ㖟⾜ࡢ⥲ධ༨ࡵࡿ㔠௨እࡢᡤᚓࡢẚ⋡ ࡀᛴ⃭ୖ᪼ࡋࡓࠋドๆ࠾ࡼࡧࡑࡢྲྀᘬࡁධࡀ㖟⾜ࡢධࡢኴ᐀࡞ࡗࡓࠋ㖟⾜ࡢᐻ༨ ࡶ㐍⾜ࡋࠊࢺࢵࣉ 5 ࡢ㖟⾜࡛ၟᴗ㖟⾜ࡢධࡢ 80㸣ࢆ༨ࡵࡿ࠸ࡓࡗࡓࠋࡑࡢධࡢ 2/3 ࡣドๆࡼࡿධ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ1990 ᖺ௦ࡢᚋ༙ࡽ㖟⾜ࡢ┈ࡣᅇࡋࡓࠋ㖟⾜ࡣ 1990 ᖺ௦ึࡵࡣື⏘ࡢୗⴠࠊἣࡼࡗ࡚ᴗ⦼ࡢᝏࡀ⥆࠸࡚࠸ࡓࠋ2000 ᖺ࡞ࡗ࡚ࠊ㖟⾜ ࡣドๆ࠾ࡼࡧࢹࣞࣂࢸࣈྲྀᘬ✚ᴟⓗྲྀࡾ⤌ࡴࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓ17ࠋ ࡉࡽࠊ1997 ᖺࡢ⣡⛯⪅ᩆ῭ἲ㸦Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997㸧ࡣึࡵ࡚ఫᏯ㈨⏘㸦5 ࢻࣝࡲ࡛㸧ࢆ࢟ࣕࣆࢱ࣭ࣝࢤࣥ⛯ࡢᑐ㇟እࡋࡓࠋࡇἲᚊࡼࡗ࡚ࠊఫᏯᢞ㈨ࡣ㨩ຊⓗ࡞ ᢞ㈨ᑐ㇟࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࠊఫᏯ㟂せࡣᣑࡋࠊࡑࡢ౯᱁ࡣୖ᪼ࢆ⥆ࡅࡓ18ࠋ 㸰㸬ドๆࡢ᪉ἲ ࣓࡛ࣜ࢝ࡣࠊᙜ㈚ࡢኴ᐀ࡣၟᴗ㖟⾜ࠊ㈓㖟⾜ࠊಙ⏝⤌ྜࡢ㡸㔠㔠⼥ᶵ㛵࡛࠶ࡾࠊ ࡑࡢࡋ࡚ࡣ࣮ࣔࢤࢵࢪ࢝ࣥࣃࢽ࠸࠺ᙜ㈚ᑓ㛛ࡢ㔠⼥♫ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢ࠸ࡃࡘࡣࠊ 㡸㔠㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡸᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࡢᏊ♫࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡾࠊࡲࡓ⊂❧ࡋࡓ㔠⼥♫࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡾࡍࡿࠋ㡸㔠 㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡔࡅ࡛ᙜ㈚ࡢ 70㸣௨ୖࢆ༨ࡵ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ㔠⼥♫࡞ࡣ 30㸣⛬ᗘࡍࡂ࡞࠸ࠋ ࣓࡛࣮ࣜ࢝ࣔࢤ࣮ࢪᢸಖドๆ㸦Mortgage-Backed Security; MBS㸧ࡀᗈࡃᬑཬࡍࡿࡼ࠺ ࡞ࡗࡓࡢࡣࠊ1970 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙ࡽࡢ㧗㔠ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊつไ㔠ࡢ㐺⏝ࢆཷࡅ࡚࠸ࡿ㡸㔠㔠⼥ ᶵ㛵ࡽ㔞ࡢ㈨㔠ὶฟࡀ⏕ࡌࡿ࠸࠺ࢹࢫࣥࢱ࣓ࢹ࢚࣮ࢩࣙࣥ⌧㇟ࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࡓࡇࠊ ࡉࡽࡣࡑࡢᚋࡢ㔠⼥⮬⏤ࡢ㐍ᒎࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ㧗ࣜࢫࢡᢞ㈨ࢆᣑࡋࠊⰋമᶒࡢቑࢆᣍ ࠸ࡓࡇࡼࡾ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ┈ᵓ㐀ࡀᝏࡋࡓࡇ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࢆྲྀࡾᕳࡃ ㈇ࡢ⎔ቃࡢ୰࡛ࠊྛ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣ᪂ࡋ࠸㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ᡭẁࡋ࡚ドๆࢆ⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ ࡓ࠼ࡤࠊ㖟⾜ࡣ BIS つไࡼࡗ࡚⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡢつไࡀᙉࡉࢀࡓࡀࠊఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࢆドๆ ࡋ࡚༷ࡍࢀࡤࠊ㈨⏘ࡋ࡚ࡢఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࡣᾘ࠼ࡿࡽࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡣࡑࡢศ㧗ࡃィ⟬ ࡉࢀࡿࠋࡍ࡞ࢃࡕࠊྠࡌ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ࡛ࡼࡾከࡃࡢ㈨⏘㐠⏝ࡀྍ⬟࡞ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡ ࡢⓎ㐩࠾ࡼࡧࠊࡑࢀᡴࡕࡉࢀࡓ㔠⼥ᢏ⾡ࡢ㐍ᒎࡶぢ㏨ࡍࡇࡣ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠋ᪂ࡋ࠸㔠⼥ᢏ ⾡ࡣࡉࡲࡊࡲ࡞ࣜࢫࢡࡢドๆࢆ⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏࡿࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࣜࢫࢡࡢ᭱ᑠ┈ࡢᏳᐃࢆྍ ⬟ࡋࡓ19ࠋ 17 A. Bhide (2011) p.97ࢆཧ↷ࠋ 18 S. Gjerstad and V. Smith (2011) p.114ࢆཧ↷ࠋ 19㐲⸨ᖾᙪ㸦1999㸧ࡣドๆࡀⓎᒎࡋࡓ⌮⏤ࡋ࡚ࠊࡉࡽࠊM㸤AࡸLBOࡢከⓎࠊᴗࡢࣜࢫࢺࣛࡼࡗ࡚ࠊമๆ ࡢᛴⴠࡀ㢖⦾⏕ࡌࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࡢ㛫࡛ᚑ᮶ࡢമๆᢞ㈨‶ࡀ㧗ࡲࡗࡓࡇࠊࡉࡽࡇࢀࡽࡢドๆࡢὶ㏻ᕷሙࡀഛࡉ ࢀ࡚ࡁࡓࠊࡇࢆୖࡆ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 67 ᅗ⾲ 7 ࡣఫᏯᢸಖドๆ㸦RMBS㸧ࡢ⤌ᡂࢆලయⓗ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ࣮ࣔࢤࢵࢪࡢ࢜ࣜࢪࢿ࣮ ࢱ࣮㸦ఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࡢ┤᥋ࡢ㈚ᡭ㸧ࡣᢞ㈨࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ࡢ୰࣮ࣟࣥࢆᢪ࠼࡚࠸ࡿࠋࢫ࣏ࣥ ࢧ࣮࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣⓎ⾜⪅ࡤࢀࡿࠊ௰ᶵ㛵ࡣࡉࡲࡊࡲ࡞࢜ࣜࢪࢿ࣮ࢱ࣮ࡽከᩘࡢ࣮ࣔࢤࢵ ࢪࢆ㈙ྲྀࡾࠊࡑࢀࢆᢞ㈨┠ⓗᴗయ㸦Special Purpose Vehicle; SPV㸧⛣ࡋࠊࡑࢀࢆ⟶⌮ ࡍࡿཷク⪅ࢆỴࡵࡿࠋSPV ࡣ RMBS ࢆ⤌ᡂࡋࠊࡑࢀࢆᢞ㈨ᐙ༷ࡍࡿࠋࣉ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓࣔ ࣮ࢤࢵࢪࡢ᪥ࠎࡢ⟶⌮ࡣࢧ࣮ࣅࢧ࣮㸦servicer㸧ࡼࡗ࡚࡞ࡉࢀࡿࠋᙼࡽࡣඖ㔠ࠊ㔠ࢆ㞟 ࡵࠊࡲࡓ⣡ࠊ㉁ὶࢀࠊ࣮ࣟࣥࡢᾘࠊ࡞ࢆᢅ࠸ࠊಙク⪅ᡭᩘᩱࢆᡶ࠺ࠋࡇࡢドๆࡢ 㐣⛬࡛ࠊࣜࢫࢡᅇࡾࡢ␗࡞ࡿドๆศࡋ࡚㈍ࡉࢀࡿࠋࡇࡢドๆࡢศࡉࢀࡓ㒊ศࢆ ࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙㸦tranche㸸ㄒ࡛ษࡾ้ࡴ࠸࠺ព㸧࠸࠺ࠋࢩࢽ࣭ࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡣࣜࢫࢡ ࡀᑡ࡞ࡃᅇࡾࡀప࠸ドๆ㸦ࢫࢱࣥࢲ࣮ࢻ࣭ࣥࢻ࣭ࣉ࣮ࢬࡢ᱁ࡅ࡛ࡣࠊAAA ࣛࣥࢡࡢ ドๆ㸧ࡼࡗ࡚ᵓᡂࡉࢀࠊ࣓ࢨࢽ࣭ࣥࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡣ୰ࣜࢫࢡࠊ୰ᅇࡾࡢドๆ㸦AA+ࡽ BB ࣛࣥࢡࡢドๆ㸧ࡼࡗ࡚ᵓᡂࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ᭱ᚋࡢࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡣ㉸㐣ᢸಖ㸦Overcollateralization㸧 ࡤࢀࡿࠋࡑࢀࡣ SPV ࡀⓎ⾜ࡋࡓドๆࡢ㢠㠃౯್ࡼࡾࡶ㧗࠸࣮ࣔࢤࢵࢪࢆྵࡴࡇࢆព ࡍࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ࠸ࡗࡓࢇࡑࡢಙクࡀᦆኻࢆⓎ⏕ࡋࡓሙྜࡣ᭱ึࡑࡢᦆኻࢆ⿕ࡿࡇ ࡞ࡿࠋᖹᆒⓗ࡞ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ RMBS ࡢ㈨⏘ᵓᡂࡣᏳᚿྥ࡛ࠊ79.3㸣ࡀ AAAࠊ6.6㸣ࡀ AAࠊ5.4㸣ࡀ Aࠊ4.3㸣ࡀ BBBࠊ2.6㸣ࡀ BBࠊࡑࡢṧࡾࡀ㉸㐣ᢸಖࠊゝࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡓ ࡀࡗ࡚ࠊࢩࢽ࣭ࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡣඃⰋᴗࡢ♫മྠ᱁ぢ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚㈍ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓ20ࠋ ㈨⏘ࡢᅇᴗົࡣ SPV ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ࡚ࠊཷク⪅㸦ཷク㖟⾜㸧ࡢጤクࢆཷࡅࡓࢧ࣮ࣅࢧ࣮ࡀ࠾ ࡇ࡞࠺ࠋSPV ࡣドๆⓎ⾜ࡢࡳࡢᴗົࢆ࠾ࡇ࡞࠺⤌ࡳ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊࢫ࣏ࣥࢧ ࣮ࡸ SPV ࡀಽ⏘ࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡇࡀ࠶ࡗ࡚ࡶࡑࢀࡼࡗ࡚ᢞ㈨ᐙࡀᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅࡿࡇࡣ࡞࠸ࠋ ࡇࢀࡣಽ⏘㝸㞳㸦Bankruptcy Remoteness㸧ࡤࢀࡿ21ࠋ ᢞ㈨ᐙࡢᕼᮃࡣࡉࡲࡊࡲ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᅇࡾࡀ㧗ࡅࢀࡤࠊࡓ࠼ࣜࢫࢡࡀ㧗ࡃ࡚ࡶࡲࢃ࡞࠸ ⪃࠼ࡿᢞ㈨ᐙࡶ࠸ࢀࡤࠊ㏫Ᏻᚿྥࡢᢞ㈨ᐙࡶ࠸ࡿࠋドๆࡣࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ከᵝ࡞ᢞ㈨ᐙ ࡢࢽ࣮ࢬ࠶ࡗࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊ࣮ࣔࢤ࣮ࢪドๆࡢሙྜࡣᡭࡀ࣮ࣟࣥࡢ㏉῭ᮇ㝈 ௨๓᪩ᮇ㏉῭ࡍࡿሙྜࡀ࠶ࡿ࡞ࠊ‶ᮇ᪥ࡀ☜ᐃ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࡢࡇࡼࡗ࡚ᢞ㈨ᐙࡀࣜ ࢫࢡࢆཷࡅࡿࡇࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢၥ㢟ࡶドๆࡀゎỴࡋ࡚ࡃࢀࡿࠋ മົᢸಖドๆ㸦CDO㸸Collateralized Debt Obligations㸧ࡣඛ⤌ᡂࡉࢀࡓ RMBSࠊ㈨⏘ ᢸಖドๆࠊCP ᢸಖドๆ࡞ࢆᇶࡋ࡚⤌ᡂࡉࢀࡓドๆ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ ࠕࢫࢺࣛࢡࢳ࣮ࣕࣇࢼࣥ ࢫ CDOࠖࡤࢀࡿࠋࡇࡢドๆࡣࡉࡲࡊࡲ࡞ドๆࡀ」㞧ධࡾΰࡌࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡑࡢホ౯ ࡣࡁࢃࡵ࡚㧗ᗘ࡞ᩘᏛ⤫ィᏛࢆ㥑ࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡢドๆ᱁ࡅࡍࡿ᱁ࡅᶵ 㛵ࡶࡁࢃࡵ࡚㧗ᗘ࡞▱㆑ࢆせࡍࡿࠋࡇࡢ⤌ᡂἲࢆᅗ⾲ 8 ࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࡳࡿࡇࡋࡼ࠺ࠋࡲ ࡎࠊࢫ࣏ࣥࢧ࣮ࡣࡉࡲࡊࡲ࡞ドๆࡉࢀࡓドๆࢆࣉ࣮ࣝࡋࡑࢀࢆ SPV ⛣ࡋࠊࡑࢀࢆ⟶㈈ ேࡀ┘╩ࡍࡿࠋSPV ࡣドๆࢆ⤌ᡂࡋࠊⓎ⾜ࡍࡿࠋࡑࢀࡣ᱁ࡅᶵ㛵ࡼࡗ࡚᱁ࡅࡉࢀࡿࠋ ࡑࡢ᱁ࡅ㈝⏝ࡣࢫ࣏ࣥࢧ࣮ࡀᨭᡶ࠺ࠋࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡢࢩࢽ㒊ศࡣ AAA ࡽ AA ࣛࣥࢡࡢ 20 M.Jarsulic (2010) pp.19-21. 21⌧ᐇࡣࢧ࣮ࣅࢧ࣮ࡀಽ⏘ࡍࡿሙྜࡶ࠶ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊࡑࢀࢆࣂࢵࢡࢵࣉࡍࡿ⤌ࡳࡶ⪃࠼ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ 68 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ࡶࡢࡀධࡾࠊ࣓ࢨࢽࣥࡣ A ࡽ BB ࣛࣥࢡࡢࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡢ᭱ᚋࡣ᱁ࡅ⬟ ࡢ࢚ࢡࢸࡀධࡿࠋࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡢୗࠊᅇࡾࡣ㧗࠸ࡀࠊࣜࢫࢡࡣ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࠋ᭱ୗ ࡢࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡣࡶࡗࡶ㧗࠸ᅇࡾࢆᚓࡿࡀࠊമົᒚ⾜࡞ࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࡓሙྜࡣ୍␒ඛ ࡑࡢᦆኻࢆཷࡅࡿࠋ CDO ࡛ὀពࡍࡁࡣࠊࡑࡢ୍㒊ࡀࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㛵㐃ࡢ RMBS ࡽ⤌ᡂࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿⅬ࡛࠶ ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊCDO ࡢࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࡣࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛドๆࡢࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࡁࡃ౫ Ꮡࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ࣓ࢨࢽࣥࢆ㞟ࡵࡓሙྜ࡛ࡶࠊࡑࢀࢆከᩘ㞟ࡵࡿࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ᪂ࡓ࣓ࢨࢽࣥ ࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃࠊࢩࢽࡲ࡛సࡾฟࡏࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊࡇࡢࢩࢽࡣ୍ḟドๆࡢࢩࢽࡣࣜ ࢫࢡࡢᛶ㉁ࡀ␗࡞ࡿࡇὀពࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡅ࡞ࡿࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡀ┦ᑐⓗຎࡋ ࡚ࡤ⾜ࡃࠊࡑࢀࢆከᩘ㞟ࡵ࡚ࢩࢽศ㢮ࡉࢀࡓࡋ࡚ࡶࡑࡢࢩࢽࡢࣜࢫࢡࡣ࡞ࡾ 㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ CDO ࡢᛴቑࡣࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡀᛴᣑࡋࡓᮇ୍⮴ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋCDO ࡣ 2004 ᖺ ࡽ 2006 ᖺࡅ࡚㸱ಸ௨ୖቑຍࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡶࠊCDO ࡢ⤌ᡂ⪅ࡣ RMBS ࡢ᱁ࡅࡢ ప࠸ࠊ㧗ᅇࡾࡢࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࢆྲྀࡾ㎸ࡶ࠺ࡋࡓࠋࢧࣈࣉ࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡢᮎᮇࡣࡑࡢഴྥࡀ ୍ẁຍ㏿ࡋࡓࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊCDO ࡢ࡞ࡾࡢ㒊ศࡣࢹࣇ࢛ࣝࢺࣜࢫࢡࡢ㧗࠸ RMBS ࡢࢺ ࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡽ⤌ᡂࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡶࢃࡽࡎࠊࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡀ୍ᩧ↔ࡆࡁࠊ RMBS ࡢୗࡢࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡀᾘ⁛ࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡇࡣ⤯ᑐ࡞࠸௬ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋហ ࡶࠊCDO ࡢୖࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࡣ AAA ᱁ࡅࡉࢀࠊᏳぢ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᚋ ࡞ࡗ࡚ࡇࡢ AAA ࡣ࠸ࡋࡆ࡞ࠊࣜࢫࢡࡢ㧗࠸മๆࡢ㞟ྜ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀศࡿࠋ ᅗ⾲ 9 ࡣࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥ㛵㐃ࡢ MBS ࡢⓎ⾜㧗ࡢୖ 10 ♫ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ࢝ࣜࣇ࢛ࣝ ࢽ࡛✚ᴟⓗࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥ㈚ฟࢆ✚ᴟⓗ࠾ࡇ࡞ࡗ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢ᭱ึࡢ ≛≅⪅࡞ࡗࡓࠊ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻ࣭ࣇࢼࣥࢩࣕࣝ㸦Countrywide Financial㸧ࡀࢺࢵࣉ ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊᙜࡢせᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࡢ୰࡛࣮࣐࣭ࣜࣥࣈࣛࢨ࣮ࢬ㸦Lehman Brothers㸧 ࡀ➨㸶⨨ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ࣮࣐ࣜࣥࡀ࠸ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㛵㐃ࡢᢞ㈨ࡢࡵࡾ㎸ࢇ࡛࠸ࡓ ࡀศࡿࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ ᅗ⾲ 7 RMBS ࡢ⤌ᡂ ࢫ࣏ࣥࢧ࣮ ᱁ࡅᩱ ᱁ᶵ㛵 ᱁ࡅ ┈ ࢩࢽ ┈ ࣮ࣔࢤ࣮ࢪ ㉎ධ 㸦AAA㸧 SPV ࣉ࣮ࣝ ඖ㔠㸩ᜥ ᢞ㈨ᐙ ࣓ࢨࢽࣥ ඖ㔠㸩ᜥ (AA~BB) ㉸㐣ᢸಖ ཷク ࢧ࣮ࣅࢧ࣮ 㸦ὀ㸧Jarsulic (2010) p.19 ᇶ࡙࠸࡚సᅗࡉࢀࡓࠋ ᅗ⾲ 8 ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ CDO ࡢ⤌ᡂ ᱁ᶵ㛵 ࢫ࣏ࣥࢧ࣮ ᙜ ᱁ࡅ ┈ ࣓ࢨࢽࣥ ࢩࢽ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ ┈ ᙜ RMBS 㸦AAA㸧 SPV ࡑࡢ ㉎ධ ඖ㔠㸩ᜥ ⤌ᡂドๆ ࣓ࢨࢽࣥ 㸦AA㹼BB㸧 ࢚ࢡࢸ ㈨⏘㐠⏝⪅ ཷク⪅ 㸦ὀ㸧Jarsulic (2010) p.26 ᇶ࡙࠸࡚సᅗࡉࢀࡓࠋ (᱁ࡅ↓ࡋ) ᢞ㈨ᐙ ඖ㔠㸩ᜥ 69 70 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ᅗ⾲ 9 ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ MBS Ⓨ⾜యࠊୖ 10 ♫㸦2006 ᖺ㸧 㡰 Ⓨ⾜య 㔠㢠㸦10 ൨ࢻࣝ㸧 ࢩ࢙㸦㸣㸧 1 Countrywide 38.5 8.6 2 New Century 33.9 7.6 3 Option One 31.3 7.0 4 Fremont 29.8 6.6 5 Washigton Mutual 28.8 6.4 6 First Franklin 28.3 6.3 7 ResidentialFunding Corp 25.9 5.8 8 Lehman Brothers 24.4 5.4 9 WMC Mortgage 21.6 4.8 21.4 4.8 ࢺࢵࣉ 10 283.9 63.3 ⥲㢠 448.6 100.0 10 Ameriquest 㸦ฟᡤ㸧2008 Mortgage Maraket Statistical Annual, M. Jarsulic (2010)ࡼࡾᘬ⏝ ࣮ࣔࢤࢵࢪࡢドๆࡢࢩ࢙ࡣ㐣ཤ 20 ᖺ㛫ᛴ㏿ቑຍࡋࡓࠋ2007 ᖺࡣ࣮ࣔࢤࢵࢪ ࡢ 75㸣௨ୖ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ89 ᖺࡣഹ 47.2㸣࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ RMBS ࡢᢞ㈨ᐙࡣᇶᮏ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ࣮ࣔࢤࢵࢪᢸಖࡽࡢ┈ࡢศ㓄ࢆཷࡅࡿࡀࠊࡑࢀࡣ ࡑࡢᢸಖࡢࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫ౫Ꮡࡍࡿࠋࡑࢀࡺ࠼ࠊRMBS ࡢࣜࢫࢡࡣࣉ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓ࣮ࣔࢤࢵ ࢪࡢࣜࢫࢡ࡛ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋRMBS ࡣ࠸ࡃࡘࡢ୍⯡ⓗ࡞ࣜࢫࢡࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿࠋ ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢఫᏯ㈚ࡋࡅࡢ୰ᚰ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠊ㐃㑥ఫᏯᙜබ♫㸦ࣇࢽ࣓࣮㸹Fannie Mae㸧 ࠊ 㐃㑥ఫᏯ㈚ᙜබ♫㸦ࣇࣞࢹࣜࢵࢡ࣐ࢵࢡ㸹Freddie Mac䠅22ࠊࡼࡗ࡚Ⓨ⾜ࡉࢀࡓ RMBS ࡣࠕᶵ㛵ࠖドๆࡤࢀࡿࠋࣇࢽ࣓ࣇ࢙ࣞࢹࢵࣜࢡࡢドๆࡢ⫼ᚋ࠶ࡿ࣮ࣟࣥࡣ㐺᱁ 㸦conforming㸧࣮ࣟࣥࡤࢀࡿࠋࡑࢀࡣ༑ศಙ⏝ࡢ࠶ࡿᡭ࡞ࡉࢀࡿ࣮ࣟࣥࡔࡽࠊࡇ ࡢ㸰♫ࡣ 2000 ᖺ௦ࡢఫᏯࣈ࣮࣒ࡢ୰࡛୰ᚰⓗ࡞ᙺࢆᯝࡓࡋࡓࠋࡃࠊࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛࣟ ࣮ࣥ࠾ࡼࡧ࢜ࣝࢺ A ࣮ࣟࣥ✚ᴟⓗ㛵ࢃࡗ࡚ࡁࡓࠋ୧♫ࡣ 2008 ᖺ༙ࡤ࡛ࠊ1143 ൨ࢻࣝࡢ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㛵㐃ࡢ MBS ࢆಖ᭷ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡉࡽࠊ୧♫ࡣࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ MBS ࡢಖドࡶࡋ ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡽࢆຍ࠼ࡿࠊⰋമᶒ࡞ࡗࡓ MBS ࡣ⥲㢠࡛ࠊ1 1400 ൨ࢻࣝࡶ࡞ࡿࠋ ࣓ࣜ࢝యࡢⰋമᶒࡋࡓࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ MBS ࡢᐇ 28㸣࡞ࡿ࠸࠺ࢹ࣮ࢱࡀ࠶ࡿ23ࠋ Ϫ ఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢୗⴠ 2004 ᖺ 7 ᭶࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢἣࡣ⤊ࢃࡗࡓࡉࢀࡿࠋ2004 ᖺ 7 ᭶ࡽᨻ⟇㔠ࡣᑡࡋࡎࡘ ᘬࡁୖࡆࡽࢀࡓࠋ1.03㸣࡛࠶ࡗࡓ 6 ᭶ࡢ㔠ࡣࠊ7 ᭶ࡣ 1.26㸣ୖ᪼ࡋࠊ⩣ᖺࡢ 1 ᭶ࡣ 1㸣 22 ࡇࡢ2♫ࡣᨻᗓᨭᶵ㛵㸦GSE㸧ࡤࢀࡿᐇ㉁ⓗࡣẸ㛫♫࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊ⌧ᅾࡣᅜࡢ⟶⌮ୗ࠶ࡿࠋ 23 Jarsulic (2010) p.32 ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 71 ࢆ⬺ฟࡋࠊ2.16㸣࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡑࡢᚋࠊ㔠ୖ᪼ࡣຍ㏿ࡋࠊ2005 ᖺ 5 ᭶ࡣ 3㸣㐩ࡋࠊࡑࡢ ᖺࡢ 11 ᭶ࡣ 4㸣࡞ࡾࠊ2006 ᖺ 8 ᭶ࡣ 5.25㸣᭱㧗ࣞ࣋ࣝ㐩ࡍࡿࠋࢃࡎ 2 ᖺ࡛ᨻ ⟇㔠ࡣ 1㸣ྎࡽ 5㸣ྎ୍ᣲ 4㸣ࡶୖ᪼ࡋࡓ㸦ᅗ⾲ 10 ཧ↷㸧 ࠋ ᅗ⾲ 10 FF ࣮ࣞࢺࡢᘬୖࡆ 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 2007-07-01 2007-04-01 2007-01-01 2006-10-01 2006-07-01 2006-04-01 2006-01-01 2005-10-01 2005-07-01 2005-04-01 2005-01-01 2004-10-01 2004-07-01 0.00 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧 ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᛴ⃭࡞㔠ୖ᪼ࡣࠊኚື㔠࣮ࣔࢤࢪ㸦ARM㸧࡛ࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࢆࡾ࡚ ࠸ࡓேࡓࡕࡁ࡞⾪ᧁࢆ࠼ࡓࠋ2006 ᖺࡈࢁࡣከࡃࡢᡭࡢ㏉῭㔠㢠ࡣ㔠ୖ᪼ࡼ ࡗ࡚⭾ᙇࡋࠊ2007 ᖺࡣࡑࡢ⿕ᐖࡣ୍ᣲᣑࡋࡓࠋᆺⓗ࡞ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛࡢᡭࡢ᭶ᨭ ᡶ㢠ࡣ 1,200 ࢻࣝࡽ 1,500 ࢻࣝ⭾ࡽࢇࡔࠋᙜ↛ࡢࡇ࡞ࡀࡽࠊ12,00 ࢻࣝࡢ㏉῭ࢆணᐃ ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓᡭࡢከࡃࡣ㏉῭⬟㝗ࡗࡓࠋᡭࡣമົᒚ⾜ࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡋࡓࡢ࡛ࠊ㈚ᡭࡣఫ Ꮿࢆἐࡋࡓࠋമົᒚ⾜⪅ࡣ 2006 ᖺึࡵࡣࠊᖺ 775,000 ௳࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀࠊ2006 ᖺᮎࡣ 1,000,000 ௳ࡲ࡛ᛴቑࡋࡓࠋࡉࡽࠊ2007 ᖺ༙ࡤࡣ 1,500,00 ௳ࡉࡽቑ࠼ࡓࠋ2007 ᖺኟࡽ 2008 ᖺࡲ࡛ࡣࠊ✵ࡁᐙఫᏯࡣ 100 ௳ቑຍࡋࡓࠋ᪉࡛ఫᏯ㈍௳ᩘࡣ 2007 ᖺึࡵࡢ 750 ௳ࡽࡑࡢᖺࡢ⤊ࢃࡾࡣ 550 ௳୍ᣲῶᑡࡋࡓࠋ᪂つఫᏯࡢࢀṧ ࡾࡀቑ࠼ࠊᢸಖࡋ࡚ྲྀࡾୖࡆࡓ୰ྂఫᏯࡢ㈍ࡶቑ࠼ࠊఫᏯᕷሙࡣ୍ᣲᝏࡋࠊఫᏯ౯ ᱁ࡣᛴୗⴠࡋࡓ24ࠋ ᅗ⾲ 11 ࡣせ㒔ᕷ㸦ࣟࢧࣥࢪ࢙ࣝࢫࠊ࣐࣑ࠊࢽ࣮࣮ࣗࣚࢡࠊࣛࢫ࣋࢞ࢫࠊࢹࢺࣟ ࢺ㸧ࡢఫᏯ౯᱁ୖ᪼ࢆ♧ࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 24 L.Thomas (2011) pp.70-71ࡼࡿࠋ 72 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ᅗ⾲ せ㒔ᕷࡢఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢ᥎⛣㸦ࢣ࣮ࢫ࣭ࢩ࣮ࣛఫᏯ౯᱁ᣦᩘ㸧 300 250 200 150 100 50 FL-Miami NV-Las Vegas 2001.01 2001.07 2002.01 2002.07 2003.01 2003.07 2004.01 2004.07 2005.01 2005.07 2006.01 2006.07 2007.01 2007.07 2008.01 2008.07 2009.01 2009.07 2010.01 2010.07 0 CA-Los Angeles NY-New York MI-Detroit 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧 ᅗ⾲ 12 せ༑㒔ᕷ࠾ࡼࡧ༑㒔ᕷࡢᖹᆒఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢ᥎⛣㸦ࢣ࣮ࢫ࣭ࢩ࣮ࣛఫᏯ౯᱁ᣦᩘ㸧 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 Composite-10 50.00 Composite-20 2001.01 2001.07 2002.01 2002.07 2003.01 2003.07 2004.01 2004.07 2005.01 2005.07 2006.01 2006.07 2007.01 2007.07 2008.01 2008.07 2009.01 2009.07 2010.01 2010.07 0.00 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧 ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 73 ᅗ⾲ 13 せ༑㒔ᕷࡢ᭱ୗⴠ⋡㸦ࢣ࣮ࢫ࣭ࢩ࣮ࣛఫᏯ౯᱁ᣦᩘ㸧 -10.00% -20.00% ᆅྡ AZ-Phoenix CA-Los Angeles CA-San Diego CA-San Francisco CO-Denver DC-Washington FL-Miami FL-Tampa GA-Atlanta IL-Chicago MA-Boston MI-Detroit MN-Minneapolis NC-Charlotte NV-Las Vegas NY-New York OH-Cleveland OR-Portland TX-Dallas WA-Seattle 0.00% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00% -60.00% 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧ࡼࡾసᡂ ᅗ⾲ 13 ࡣఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢ 2007 ᖺࡢࣆ࣮ࢡࡽ᭱㏆ࡢ࣎ࢺ࣒ࡲ࡛ࡢୗⴠ⋡ࢆ㒔ᕷࡈ♧ࡋ ࡓࠋ᭱ࡶࡁࡃୗⴠࡋࡓࡢࡣࠊࣛࢫ࣋࢞ࢫ࡛ࡑࡢୗⴠ⋡ࡣ㸫58㸣ࡶ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ௨ୗࠊࣜࢰ ࢼᕞࡢࣇ࢙ࢽࢵࢡࢫ㸫55㸣ࠊࣇࣟࣜࢲᕞࡢ࣐࣑㸫49.3㸣ࠊ࣑ࢩ࢞ࣥᕞࡢࢹࢺࣟࢺ㸫 47㸣ࠊࣇࣟࣜࢲᕞࡢࢱࣥࣃ㸫45.6㸣ࠊࢧࣥࣇࣛࣥࢩࢫࢥ㸫45.1㸣ࠊࢧࣥࢹ࢚ࢦ㸫42.2㸣ࠊ ࣟࢫࣥࢪ࢙ࣝࢫ㸫41.3㸣⥆ࡃࠋ 2006 ᖺ 5 ᭶ࡢࣂࣈࣝࣆ࣮ࢡ 50 ࢻࣝࡢఫᏯࢆࣛࢫ࣋࢞ࢫ࡛㉎ධࡋࡓ㐠࡞ᐙ᪘ࡘ ࠸࡚⪃࠼࡚ࡳࡼ࠺ࠋ㢌㔠 20㸣࡛ 40 ࢻࣝࡢ࣮ࣟࣥࢆᢪ࠼ࡓࡋࡼ࠺ࠋࣛࢫ࣋࢞ࢫࡢ㈨⏘౯ ್ࡢୗⴠ⋡ 55㸣ࢆ⪃࠼ࡿࠊ2010 ᖺ 5 ᭶ࡣࠊࡇࡢఫᏯ౯್ࡣࢃࡎ 22 5000 ࢻࣝ㸦㸻 50 ࢻࣝ0.45㸧పୗࡋࡓࠋከ㢠ࡢ㢌㔠ࢆᡶࡗࡓࡅࢀࡶࠊࡇࡢᐙ᪘ࡣࠊ17 5000 ࢻࣝ ࡢമົ㉸㐣㝗ࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࠋఫᏯ౯᱁ᑐࡍࡿ࣮ࣟࣥẚ⋡ࡀ 80㸣࠸࠺ࡢࡣࠊᙜࡢ≧ ἣ࡛ࡣࡲࡔࡲࡋ࡞᪉࡛࠶ࡿࠋከࡃࡢఫᏯ㉎ධ⪅ࡢ㢌㔠ࡣ 10㸣௨ୗ࡛࠶ࡗࡓゝࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࣛࢫ࣋࢞ࢫࡣఫᏯ౯᱁ୗⴠࡀཝࡋ࠸ᴟ➃࡞࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊࡶࡗఫᏯ౯᱁ୗⴠࡀᑠࡉࡗࡓ㒔 ᕷ࠾࠸࡚ࡶఫᏯ㉎ධ⪅ࡢമົࡀⴭࡋࡃቑຍࡋࡓ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࡇࡣᐜ᫆ീ࡛ࡁࡿ25ࠋ ϫ ༴ᶵࡢⓎ➃ࡋ࡚ࡢࠕᙳࡢ㖟⾜ࠖ 㸯㸬SIV ᑟ⟶య ᡭࡢ㖟⾜ࡣ CDO ࡸ MBS ᕧ㢠ࡢᢞ㈨ࢆࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊᮏయࡣษࡾ㞳ࡋࡓᙧ࡛ࠕ≉ู 25 ࡇᩘ್ࡣL.Thomas (2011) pp.71-72. 74 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ᢞ㈨ᴗయ㸦Structural Investment Vehicle:SIV㸧26ࠖࡸᑟ⟶㸦Conduits㸧ࢆタ❧ࡋࡓࠋࡇ ࢀࡽࡢ㔠⼥♫ࡣ㖟⾜ᮏయࡣูᶵ㛵࡛࠶ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ㔠⼥ᙜᒁࡢつไࢆཷࡅࡿࡇࡶ࡞ࡃࠊ⮬ ⏤࡞ᢞ㈨άືࡀチࡉࢀࡓࠋලయⓗࡣࠊ㈨⏘ࢆᢸಖࡋ࡚▷ᮇ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡽ㈨㔠ࢆᚓ࡚ࠊࡑ ࡢ㈨㔠࡛ࡶࡗ࡚ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛドๆࢆྵࡴࡉࡲࡊࡲ࡞㈨⏘ᢸಖドๆᢞ㈨ࡋ࡚ࡁࡓࠋ▷ᮇ㔠⼥ ᕷሙ࡛ᨭᡶ࠺㔠ࢥࢫࢺࢆࡣࡿࡄ㧗࠸ᅇࡾࢆ㛗ᮇドๆᢞ㈨ࡽᚓ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ▷ᮇᕷሙ ࡢ㔠ࡀపࡃࠊᏳᐃࡋࠊ᪉ఫᏯ౯᱁ࡀୖ᪼ࡋࠊࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㛵㐃ドๆࡀ㡰ㄪ㧗࠸㓄ᙜࢆ ⥆ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿ㝈ࡾࠊࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᢞ㈨ᡓ␎ࡣ SIV ࡁ࡞┈ࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢⅬࢆ᭱ ⏕ࡍࡓࡵࠊSIV ࡣ⮬ࡽࡢ㈨ᮏࢆࡣࡿ㉸࠼ࡿ㧗࠸ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪᢞ㈨ࡢࡵࡾ㎸ࢇ࡛⾜ࡗ ࡓࠋSIV ࡣ㖟⾜ᮏయศ㞳ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ㔠⼥つไࡢᑐ㇟ࡣ࡞ࡽࡎࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡つไ ࡢᑐ㇟ࡶ࡞ࡽ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡑࢀࡀࠕᙳࡢ㖟⾜㸦Shadow Bank㸧ࠖゝࢃࢀࡿᡤ௨࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡢᦆኻࡣࠊᙳࡢ㖟⾜࡛࠶ࡿᑟ⟶య SIV ⾲ࢀࡓࠋ୧⪅ࡣ▷ᮇࡲࡓࡣ ୰ᮇࡢ⤌ᡂドๆ㸦structured securities㸧ࡢⓎ⾜ࡼࡗ࡚ᚓࡓ㈨㔠࡛ MBS ࡸ CDO ࡞ࡢ㛗 ᮇ࡛ࣁ࣭ࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ㈨⏘ᢞ㈨ࢆࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡇࢀࡽࡢᶵ㛵ࡣつไࢆཷࡅ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡑࢀࡽ ࡢⓎ⾜ࡍࡿドๆࡣ㈨⏘ᢸಖ CP㸦asset-backed commercial paper: ABCP㸧ࡤࢀࠊ┦ᑐ࡛ ྲྀᘬࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࡢࡓࡿ㈙࠸ᡭࡣ MMMF ࠾ࡼࡧᶵ㛵ᢞ㈨ᐙ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡇࢀࡣ㏻ᖖࠊၟ ᴗ㖟⾜ࠊᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࠊ࣊ࢵࢪࣇࣥࢻࡼࡗ࡚タ❧ࡉࢀࡓࠋ SIV ࡸᑟ⟶యࡢ㨩ຊࡣࠊձぶయࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡽษࡾ㞳ࡉࢀࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ㈨ᮏࢆ↓どࡋ ࡚ྲྀᘬࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࠋࡉࡽぶ㖟⾜ࡀ CDO ࡢࢺࣛࣥࢩ࢙ࢆ㈙࠸ࡓ࠸ᛮࡗࡓࡣࠊࡇࢀࡽࡢ యࡣࠊ▷ᮇമົࡢⓎ⾜ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊᚲせ࡞࢟ࣕࢵࢩࣗࢆ౪⤥ࡍࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࠋࡶࡋࠊ㖟⾜ ࡀࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ᢞ㈨ࡍࡿሙྜࡣࠊࡑࢀ࡞ࡾࡢ㈨ᮏࡀᚲせࡍࡿࡀࠊSIV ࡀࡑࡢ㈨⏘ࢆ㉎ධ ࡍࢀࡤࠊ㐶ᑡ࡞࠸㈨ᮏ࡛ࡍࡴࡽࡔ27ࠋ 2007 ᖺࡣᑟ⟶యࠊSIV ࡢ㈨⏘ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀࠊ1.4 ࢻࣝࠊ4000 ൨ࢻ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡗࡓࠋ࣓ࣜ ࢝ࡢၟᴗ㖟⾜ࡢ⥲㈨⏘ࡣ 2007 ᖺ࡛ 10 ࢻ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡗࡓࡽࠊᑟ⟶య SIV ࡣ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㖟 ⾜ࡢ 20㸣ࢆ༨ࡵࡿࡇ࡞ࡿ28ࠋࡶࢃࡽࡎࠊࡇࢀࡽࡢᐇែࡣࠕᙳࡢ㖟⾜ࠖࡋ࡚ࠊᙜ ᒁࡀ༑ศᢕᥱࡋ࡚࠾ࡽࡎࠊࡑࢀࡺ࠼ࠊࡇࢀࡽࡢ⤒῭ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࡣࡁࡗࡓࠋ 㸰㸬▷ᮇࡾ㛗ᮇ㈚ࡋࡢࣅࢪࢿࢫ 㖟⾜ࡀྲྀࡾࡅᙅ࠸ࡢࡣࠊ㡸㔠⪅ࡽ㡸ࡗࡓ▷ᮇࡢ㡸㔠㸦㈇മ㸧ࢆ㛗ᮇࡢ㈚ᅇࡋ ࡚࠸ࡿࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ࠸ࡗࡓࢇ㡸㔠ᘬࡁฟࡋࡀጞࡲࢀࡤࠊ㖟⾜ࡢ㈨㔠ࡣ୍Ẽᗏ ࢆ✺ࡁ◚ࡓࢇࡍࡿࠋࡑࡢⰋ࠸ࡣ 1973 ᖺ 12 ᭶ឡ▱┴ࡢ㇏ᕝಙ⏝㔠ᗜ࡛㉳ࡁࡓྲྀࡾࡅ㦁 ࡂ࡛࠶ࡿࠋዪᏊᏛ⏕ࡢ㟁㌴ෆ࡛ࡢࡓࢃ࠸ࡢ࡞࠸᪥ᖖヰࡢ୰࡛ฟࡓࠕಙ⏝㔠ᗜࡣ༴࡞࠸ࠖ 26 వㄯ࡞ࡀࡽࠊSIVࡣࠊࢧࣝච࢘ࣝࢫ㸦ࢧࣝච࢘ࣝࢫ: Simian Immuno-deficiency Virus: SIV㸧 ࠸࠺ࡶࡢࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ 27 ࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊ᭱⤊ⓗࡣࢫ࣏ࣥࢧ࣮࡛࠶ࡿぶయࡶ⿕ᐖࡀཬࢇࡔࠋぶయࡣSIVࡀ㈨㔠㊊㝗ࡗࡓࡣࠊ ㈚ฟࢆᐇ⾜ࡍࡿ࠸࠺ࠊࣂࢵࢡࢵࣉࣛࣥࢆ⤖ࢇ࡛࠸ࡓࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࠊぶయࡶ㈨㔠㊊㝗ࡾࠊ㈨⏘ࡢ ᢞࡆࡾࠊࢡࣞࢹࢵࢺᕷሙࡢ⤖ࡀຍ㏿ࡋࡓࠋ 28 M.Jarsulic (2010) pp.63-64. ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 75 ࠸࠺Ⓨゝࡀேࡢཱྀࡽཱྀᙇࡉࢀ࡚ఏࢃࡾࠊ୍ᩧ㇏ᕝಙ⏝㔠ᗜࡽ㡸㔠ᘬࡁฟࡋࡀ࡞ ࡉࢀࡓࠋࡑࡢ㢠ࡣࢃࡎ 1 㐌㛫࡛ 26 ൨ࡶ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡑࢀࡼࡾࠊࡲࡗࡓࡃၥ㢟ࡢ࡞࠸ ⤒Ⴀࡢ㇏ᕝಙ⏝㔠ᗜࡀ୍ᣲ◚ࡓࢇࡢ༴ᶵ❧ࡓࡉࢀࡓࠋࡇࡢ௳ࡣᨻᗓ᪥㖟ࡀ㠃ⓗ ⾲ฟ࡚ࠊࡑࡢშࢆྰᐃࡍࡿࡇࡼࡾࠊࡲࡗࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊูࡢࡣ 1980 ᖺ௦ࡢ࣓ࣜ ࢝ࡢ㈓㈚⤌ྜ㸦Savings & Loan association: S&L㸧ࡢ༴ᶵ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᙜ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㈓ ㈚⤌ྜࡣࠊ㛗ᮇࡢఫᏯ㈚ࢆᑓ㛛࠾ࡇ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࡢ㛗ᮇ㈚ࡣఫᏯ㉎ධ⪅ࡢ౽࡞ ࡼ࠺ࠊᅛᐃ㔠࡛࡞ࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊ᪉㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ࢆࡑࡢࠎࡢ㔠࡛࠾ࡇ࡞ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ▷ ᮇࡢኚື㔠࡛㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ࡋ࡚ࠊ㛗ᮇࡢᅛᐃ㔠࡛㈨⏘㐠⏝ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ▷ᮇࡢ㔠ࡣ 㛗ᮇࡢ㔠ࡼࡾࡶప࠸ࡢࡀ㏻ᖖ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢ≧ែࡀ⥆࠸࡚࠸ࡿሙྜࡣࠊࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞㈨⏘㐠 ⏝ఱࡢၥ㢟ࡶ⏕ࡌ࡞࠸ࠋࡋࡋࠊ1980 ᖺ௦ࡣࡀ␗࡞ࡗࡓࠋࣥࣇࣞࡀ㐍⾜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡢ ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࣥࣇࣞࡢ㐍⾜ඹ▷ᮇ㔠ࡣᑡࡋࡎࡘୖࡀࡾጞࡵࠊS&L ࡢ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ࢥࢫࢺࢆୖ ࡆጞࡵࡓࠋ᪉㐠⏝┈ࡣ㛗ᮇᅛᐃ࡛࠶ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ࠸ࢃࡺࡿ㏫ࢨࡸ⌧㇟ࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࠊከࡃࡢ S&L ࡣ◚ࡓࢇ㏣࠸㎸ࡲࢀࡓ29ࠋ ࡇࢀྠࡌࡇࡀࠊ2007 ᖺࡢ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ▷ᮇ㔠⼥ᕷሙ࡛࠾ࡁࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠 ⼥༴ᶵࡢ᰾࡞ࡗࡓ SIV ࡸᑟ⟶యࡣࠊࢥ࣐࣮ࢩ࣭࣮ࣕࣝ࣌ࣃ㸦CP㸧ࡢࡼ࠺࡞▷ᮇドๆࢆⓎ ⾜ࡋ࡚㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ࢆ࠾ࡇ࡞࠸ࠊࡑࢀࢆ MBS ࡞ࡢ㛗ᮇࡢ㧗ᅇࡾၟရᢞ㈨ࡍࡿ࠸࠺㈨⏘ 㐠⏝ࢆ࠾ࡇ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡑࡢ CP ࢆ㉎ධࡋࡓࡢࡣࠊࡋ࡚ 1970 ᖺ௦ࡢ㔠⼥つไ⦆ࡼ ࡗ࡚⏕ࡲࢀࡓ MMMF㸦Money Market Mutual Fund㸧࠸࠺ࠊ࣮࢜ࣉ࢚ࣥࣥࢻᆺࡢᢞ㈨ಙ ク࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢ㐠⏝ࡣ CD, CP, TB, BA ࡞ࡢ㧗ᅇࡾࡢ▷ᮇドๆ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ㔠ࡀ⮬⏤࡞ ࠊᑠษᡭࡢࡾฟࡋࡶྍ⬟࡞ࡇࡽࠊ㖟⾜㡸㔠ࡢᙉຊ࡞ᑐᢠၟရࡋ࡚ᛴᡂ㛗ࡋࡓࠋ MMMF ࡢᡂ㛗ࡣ CP ᕷሙࢆᛴᣑࡉࡏࡓࠋCP ᕷሙࡢᣑࡣ࣊ࢵࢪࣇࣥࢻࡸᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࡶ▷ ᮇࡢ㈨⏘ᢸಖドๆࢆⓎ⾜ࡋ࡚㈨㔠ࢆㄪ㐩ࡍࡿᶵࢆ࠸㧗ࡵࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࢀࡽࡣࡑ ࡇ࡛ᚓࡓ㈨㔠ࢆ✚ᴟⓗࡼࡾ㧗࠸ᅇࡾࢆ⏕ࡴࠊMBS ࡸ㛗ᮇドๆ✚ᴟⓗᢞ㈨ࡋ࡚࠸ࡗ ࡓࠋ ࡇࡢࣅࢪࢿࢫࡣ⤒῭⎔ቃࡀ㡰ㄪ࡛࠶ࡿࡣୖᡭࡃ࠸ࡃࠋࡋࡋࠊ⤒῭≧ἣࡀ୍㌿ᝏࡍ ࢀࡤࠊ㈨㔠ࡢὶࢀࡣࢫࢺࢵࣉࡋࠊࡇࡢࣅࢪࢿࢫࣔࢹࣝࡣ◚ࡓࢇࢆ᮶ࡍࠋࡑࢀࡀࠊ2007 ᖺ㉳ ࡁࡓࠋ㛗ᮇ㈨㔠ࡢ㐠⏝ࢆ▷ᮇ㈨㔠ࡢ࠼ࡢ⧅ࡂ࡛࠾ࡇ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠊSIVࠊᑟ⟶య࡞ࡢ㔠 ⼥♫ࢆࡣࡌࡵᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࡣࡓࡕࡲࡕ㈨㔠ࢩ࣮ࣙࢺࢆ㉳ࡇࡋࡓࠋᬒẼࡢᝏక࠸ࠊCP ࢆཷ ࡅධࢀ࡚ࡃࢀࡿᶵ㛵ࡀ↓ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᅗ⾲ 14 ♧ࡋࡓࡼ࠺ࠊABCP ᕷሙࡣᛴ㏿ ⦰ᑠࡋࡓࠋࢡࣞࢹࢵࢺᕷሙࡀࣇ࣮ࣟࢬࡋࡓࡢ࡛ࠊࡑࡇࡽ▷ᮇ㈨㔠ࢆࡾࠊMBS ࢆࡣࡌࡵࡍࡿ㔠⼥ၟရࢆ㉎ධࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࠊSIV ࢆࡣࡌࡵࡍࡿ㔠⼥♫ࡣ㈨㔠ࡢㄪ㐩ࡀ࡛ࡁ ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡾࠊ◚ࡓࢇࢆవ࡞ࡃࡉࢀࡓࠋᙼࡽࡢಖ᭷ࡍࡿ▷ᮇമࡀ‶ᮇ࡞ࡗࡓࡁࠊ᪂ࡓ࡞ ᡭࢆぢࡘࡅࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞≧ἣࡢ୰࡛ࠊ㈨㔠㊊ࢆ⿵࠺ࡓࡵ ࠊಖ᭷ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㛗ᮇമࡢ༷ࢆవ࡞ࡃࡉࢀࡓࠋ㛗ᮇമࡢࣇࢭ࣮࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿࠋࡑࢀࡣ 29 1980ᖺ௦ࡢS&L㔠⼥༴ᶵࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊᐑᕝ㸦1992㸧ࢆཧ↷ࠋ 76 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 㛗ᮇമࡢ౯᱁ࢆୗࡆࠊࡑࢀࡽࡢᕷሙࢆࡉࡽΰࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ▷ᮇ㔠⼥ᕷ ሙ࡛ࡢࡓࡿ㈨㔠ࡢฟࡋ࡚ࡣࠊMMMF ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀࠊΰࡍࡿ⤒῭ࡢ୰࡛ࠊࡑࡢ㈨㔠౪⤥ࡣ ࢫࢺࢵࣉࡋࡓࠋ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ CP ᕷሙࡣᶵ⬟㝗ࡾࠊከࡃࡢせᴗࡣ CP ࡢⓎ⾜ ࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡾࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ⏘ᴗࡣࡁ࡞③ᡭࢆཷࡅࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࠋ ࡲࡓࠊSIV ࡞ࡢ㔠⼥♫ࡀ▷ᮇ㈨㔠ࢆᚓࡿ᪉ἲࡋ࡚ࡣࠊCP ௨እ࣏ࣞ࠸࠺᪉ἲࡀ ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣṇᘧࡣࠊrepurchase agreement ࡼࡤࢀࡿ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ࡢ᪉ἲ࡛ࠊ㈈ົ┬ドๆࠊ MBSࠊࡑࡢドๆࢆ㈚ᡭࠊ≉ᐃ᪥≉ᐃ౯᱁࡛㈙࠸ᡠࡍࡇࢆ᮲௳༷ࡋࠊ㈨㔠ࢆᚓࡿࠋ ࡇࢀࡽࡢドๆࡣᕪࡋฟࡉࢀࡿࡔࡅ࡛ࠊᐇ㝿༷ࡉࢀࡿࡇࡣ࡞࠸ࠋࡇࡢྲྀᘬࡣ 1 ᪥࠶ࡿ࠸ ࡣ 1 㐌㛫࠸࠺㠀ᖖ▷ᮇࡢྲྀᘬ⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡿࠋ1000 ࡛༷ࡋࠊ1001 ࡛㈙࠸ᡠࡏ ࡤࠊࡑࡢᕪ㢠࡛࠶ࡿ 1 ࡀࡇࡢ▷ᮇྲྀᘬ࠾ࡅࡿ㔠࡞ࡿࠋ ᐇ㝿ࡣࠊࡇࡢ࣏ࣞྲྀᘬ࡛ࡣᡭࡢ㖟⾜ࡀ௰ᙺ࡞ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊ3 ⪅ᆺ࣏ࣞྲྀᘬ㸦tri-party repurchase agreement㸧ゝࢃࢀࡿࠋࡇࡢᕷሙࡶ 2000 ᖺ௦ࡁࡃᡂ㛗ࡋࡓࠋࡇࡢᕷሙࡶ CP ᕷሙྠᵝࠊᏳ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࡢྲྀᘬᒚ⾜ࡣ࠶ࡾᚓ࡞࠸⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓࠋ࡞ࡐ࡞ࡽࠊ ㈚ᡭᕪࡋฟࡍᢸಖࡀ㈈ົ┬ドๆࡸ MBS ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡽࡔࠋࡋࡋࠊࡇࡢᕷሙࡶࢧࣈࣉࣛ ࣒࣮ࣟࣥࡢ㏉῭ࡀࡿࡇࡼࡾࠊ㈚ᡭࡢ㏉῭⬟ຊၥࡀ⏕ࡌࡿ࠾ࡼࡧࠊࡇࡢᕷሙࡽ ࡶ୍ᩧ㈨㔠ࡢᘬࡁୖࡆࡀ㉳ࡁࡓࠋ࣏ࣞᕷሙࡢᔂቯ࡛࠶ࡿ30ࠋ 30 ࢝ࣜࣇ࢛ࣝࢽ࡛✚ᴟⓗఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥ㈚ฟࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠊ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻࣇࢼࣥࢩࣕࣝ㸦Countrywide Fina ncial㸧ࡣࡇࡢ࣏ࣞᔂቯࡢ≛≅࡞ࡗࡓࠋ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻࡣ࣮ࣔࢤࢪ࣮ࣟࣥࡢ㈨㔠ࢆᚓࡿࡓࡵࠊ⩣᪥≀ࡢ࣏ࣞᕷሙ࡛ ධࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࠋ2007ᖺࡢ┿ኟࡲ࡛ࠊ㈚ᡭࡣ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻࡀ࣏ࣞྲྀᘬ࡛ᕪࡋฟࡋ࡚࠸ࡿMBSࡢ౯್࠸ࢆᣢ ࡘࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓࠋ8᭶3♫ᆺྲྀᘬࡢ௰㖟⾜ࡀࢽ࣮࣮ࣗࣚࢡ㐃㖟࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻࡀࡉࡽ࡞ࡿᢸಖࢆᕪࡋฟࡉ࡞ࡅࢀ ࡤࠊ㈚ᡭ⌧㔠࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ࡚࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻࡀᢸಖࡋ࡚ᕪࡋฟࡋ࡚࠸ࡿMBS࡛ᡶ࠸ᡠࡍࡇ࡞ࡿࡔࢁ࠺ヰࡋࡓࠋ ᙜࡢNY㐃㖟⥲࢞ࢺࢼࡣࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ែࡀ㐍ࡵࡤMBSࡢࢲࣥࣆࣥࢢࡀ㉳ࡇࡿ⪃࠼ࡓࠋ࢞ࢺࢼࡣ୧⪅ࡢ௰ ࢆᯝࡓࡋࡓࠋࡑࡢᚋࡍࡄࠊࣂࣥࢡ࢜ࣈ࣓ࣜ࢝㸦Bank of America㸧ࡀ◚⥢ࡋࡘࡘ࠶ࡗࡓ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻࢆ྾ࡋ ࡓࠋࡶࡃࠊࡇࡢ௳ࡣ࣏ࣞᕷሙࡢ⬤ᙅࡉࢆ♧ࡋࡓࠋࡑࡢᚋ6ࣨ᭶ࡋ࡚ࠊ࣏ࣞྲྀᘬࡢၥ㢟ᝏࡼࡗ࡚࠶ࡢྡ㛛࣋ ࢫࢱࣥࢬࡀ◚ࡓࢇࡋࡓࠋఫᏯ౯᱁MBS౯᱁ࡢୗⴠࡼࡗ࡚1ᖺࡶࡋ࡞࠸࠺ࡕࠊ࣏ࣞᕷሙࡢᖺ㢠ྲྀᘬࡣ4.5ࢻࣝ ࡽ2.7ࢻࣝࡲ࡛⦰ᑠࡋࡓࠋL.Thomas (2011) pp.77-78. ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 77 ᅗ⾲ 14 ABCP ࡢⓎ⾜ṧ㧗㸦༢ 10 ൨ࢻࣝ㸧 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧ࡼࡾసᡂ ᅗ⾲ 15 3 ࣨ᭶≀㔠ࢫࣉࣞࢵࢻ㸦AA ᱁ CP ࣮ࣞࢺ㸫㈈ົ┬ᡭᙧᅇࡾ㸧 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRED㸦ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ㸧ࡼࡾసᡂ ㈨⏘ᢸಖ CP ᕷሙࡣᛴ㏿⦰ᑠࡋࡓࡀࠊࡑࡢᵝᏊࡣࡶࡗࡶᏳぢ࡞ࡉࢀࡿ㈈ົ┬ᡭᙧ ࡢ㔠ࢥ࣐࣮ࢩ࣭࣮ࣕࣝ࣌ࣃࡢ㔠ࡢᕪࡼࡗ࡚▱ࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࠋᅗ⾲ 15 ࡼࢀࡤࠊ ୧⪅ࡢᅇࡾࡢᕪࡣ 2006 ᖺࢆᗏᚎࠎୖ᪼ࡋࠊ2007 ᖺᮎࡣ୍ᣲ 1.76㸣ࡶ࡞ࡾࠊࡉ ࡽࡑࡢᚋ 2008 ᖺ 10 ᭶ࡣ 2.52㸣ࡲ࡛ୖ᪼ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࡀぢ࡚ྲྀࢀࡿࠋᕷሙࡢせồࡍ 78 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ࡿࣜࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞ㸦ࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࡢᢞ㈨ࡢ௦ൾࡋ࡚ᮇᚅࡍࡿࠊࣜࢫࢡࡢ࡞࠸㈨⏘ࢆୖᅇ ࡿᅇࡾ㸧ࡀୖ᪼ࡋࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊᢞ㈨㈨㔠ࡢࠕ㉁ࡢ㏨㑊㸦flight to quality㸧ࠖࡀ ⏕ࡌࡓゎ㔘࡛ࡁࡿࠋ 㸱㸬ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࡢၥ㢟 ๓⠇࡛㏙ࡓࡼ࠺ࠊᡭࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣࡑࡢചୗ SIV ࡸᑟ⟶యࢆタ❧ࡋࡓࠋࡑࢀࡣ㈨⏘ ࡢ୍㒊ࢆ࢜ࣇࣂࣛࣥࢫࡍࡿࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊᮏయࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࢆୗࡆࡿࡇ࡞ࡃࠊᢞ㈨ຠ⋡ ࢆୖࡆࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋSIV ࡸᑟ⟶యࡣ࢜ࣇࣂࣛࣥࢫᴗయ࡛࠶ࡾࠊᙼࡽࡢᢞ㈨⾜ືࡣつไ ᙜᒁࡢᑐ㇟࡞ࡽ࡞ࡗࡓࠋᮏయࡣࡑࢀࡽᴗయࡢ࠾ࡆ࡛ࠊఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࢆドๆࡼࡾὶ ື࡛ࡁࠊᡭᩘᩱࢆཷࡅྲྀࡾࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡢつไࡽචࢀࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࠸࠺ࡁ࡞࣓ࣜࢵ ࢺࡀ࠶ࡗࡓࠋ ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࡀࡢࡼ࠺㔠⼥༴ᶵാ࠸ࡓࢆࠊᩘ್࡛ࡳࡿࡇࡍࡿࠋ 1. ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࡀ 20 ಸࡢሙྜ ㈨⏘ ドๆ 100 ൨ ㈇മ ▷ᮇമົ 95 ൨ ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ 5 ൨ 2. ㈨⏘౯್ࡀ 10㸣ୖ᪼ࡋࡓሙྜ ㈨⏘ ドๆ 110 ൨ ㈇മ ▷ᮇമົ 95 ൨ ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ 15 ൨ 3. ᗘࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࢆ 20 ಸࡋࡓሙྜ ㈨⏘ ドๆ 300 ൨ ㈇മ ▷ᮇമົ 285 ൨ ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ 15 ൨ ࠼ࡤࠊSIV ࡀࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࢆ 20 ಸࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡋࡼ࠺ࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࠊSIV ࡢ㈨⏘ࡀ 10㸣ୖ᪼ ࡋࡓࡍࡿࠋࡇࡢࠊࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࡣ 20 ಸࡽ 7 ಸୗࡀࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦110/15㸧 ࠋࡘࡲࡾࠊ㐣 ㈨ᮏ excess capital ࢆಖ᭷ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇ࡞ࡿࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊࡶࡗമົࢆቑࡸࡋ࡚ࠊࡼࡾከࡃ ࡢ㈨⏘ࢆ㉎ධࡋࡼ࠺ࡍࡿࠋࡇࡢ SIV ࡀ┠ᶆ 20 ࡢࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࢆ㐩ᡂࡋࡼ࠺ࡍࢀࡤࠊࣂࣛ ࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࢆ 300 ൨ࡍࢀࡤࡼ࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊ 㸦2015 ൨㸧㸫110 ൨㸻190 ൨ࢻࣝศࡢ㈨⏘ ࢆቑࡸࡍࠋABS ࡀ 10㸣ୖ᪼ࡋࡓࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊSIV ࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡣ 3 ಸ࡞ࡿࠋSIV ࡣࡼࡾከࡃࡢドๆࢆ㈙࠺ࡓࡵࡼࡾከࡃࡢ ABCP ࢆⓎ⾜ࡍࡿࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡀୖ᪼ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 79 ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡣࠊമົࢆቑࡸࡋ࡚㈨⏘ࢆᣑࡍࡿࡇࡀ┈ࡢቑຍࡘ࡞ࡀࡿ31ࠋ ᙜ↛ࡢࡇ࡞ࡀࡽࠊ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡀୗⴠࡋࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡀῶᑡࡋࡓሙྜࡣࠊ㧗࠸ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࢆ ࡅ࡚࠸ࡿᴗయࡣࡑ࠺࡛࡞࠸ᴗయẚ࡚ࠊࡼࡾ✚ᴟⓗ㈨⏘ࢆῶࡽࡍᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࣞ ࣂࣞࢵࢪ 8 ಸࡢᴗయ࠾࠸࡚ࠊ2 ൨ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡢῶᑡࡀ⏕ࡌࢀࡤࠊࡶࡢᆒ⾮≧ែᡠ ࡍࡓࡵࡣࠊ㈨⏘ࢆ 16 ൨ῶࡌ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ᪉ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࢆ 20 ಸࡋ࡚࠸ࡿᴗ యࡣ㈨ᮏᦆኻࡀྠࡌࡃ 2 ൨Ⓨ⏕ࡍࢀࡤࠊඖࡢᆒ⾮ᡠࡿࡣ 40 ൨ࡶࡢ㈨⏘ࢆῶࡽࡍᚲ せࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢୗⴠక࠸㈨⏘ࡢຎࡀ㐍⾜ࡋࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡀῶᑡࡍࡿ࡞ ࠊSIV ࡞ࡢᴗయࡣಖ᭷ドๆࡢ༷ࢆᐇࡋࡓࠋ 㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣࡇࡢࡼ࠺ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࢆࡁࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡣࠊമົ ࢆቑࡸࡋ࡚㈨⏘ࢆ㉎ධࡋࣂࣈࣝࢆ↽ࡾࠊ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡀୗⴠࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡣࠊ㈨⏘ࢆ༷ࡋ࡚ࠊ മົࢆῶࡽࡋࠊ⤒῭ࢆࡉࡽୗ㝆ࡉࡏࡿ࠸࠺ࠊࣉࣟࢩࢡࣜ࢝ࣝ࡞⾜ືࢆࡗࡓࠋ Ϭ ࣇࢭ࣮ࣝ㔠⼥༴ᶵ 2007 ᖺࡈࢁࡽࠊఫᏯᕷሙ AAA ᱁ࡢドๆᝏ࠸ࢽ࣮ࣗࢫࡀὶࢀࡿࡘࢀ࡚ࠊAAA ᱁ ࡢ MBS ࡢಖ᭷⪅ືᦂࡀ⏕ࡌࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓࠋ▷ᮇ㈨㔠ࡢㄪ㐩ᡭẁ࡛࠶ࡿࠊ㈨⏘ᢸಖ CP ࡢᘬࡁཷࡅᡭࡀ↓ࡃ࡞ࡾࠊ2008 ᖺ 9 ᭶ࡣࠊᕷሙࡢᔂቯࡀጞࡲࡗࡓࠋCP ࡢࡓࡿ㈙ᡭ࡛࠶ ࡗࡓࠊMMMF ࡢゎ⣙ࡣᛴቑࡋࡓࠋCP ࡸ࣏ࣞᕷሙࡣᖸୖࡀࡾࠊ㖟⾜ࡣࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࢆᩚ ⌮ࡍࡿ୰࡛ࠊ㖟⾜㈚ࢆᢚไࡋࡓࠋࡑࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࡀ༷ࢆ㐍ࡵ࡚࠸ࡿᕷሙ㖟⾜ ࡢࡾࡀຍࢃࡗࡓࡇ࡛ࠊドๆ┦ሙࡣᛴⴠࡋࡓࠋᙜ౯್ࡢୗⴠ࠾ࡼࡧࣜࢫࢡቑຍࡼࡿ࣊ ࢝ࢵࢺࡢ㧗ࡲࡾ࡛ࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡣῶᑡࡋࡓࠋࡃࠊ࣮࣐ࣜࣥࣈࣛࢨ࣮ࢬࡢᔂቯ ௨㝆ࠊドๆࡢ㈙ᡭࡣࡃ࠸࡞࠸࠸࠺≧ἣ㝗ࡗࡓࠋドๆ౯᱁ࡢୗⴠࡀࡉࡽ࡞ࡿୗⴠࢆࡼࡪ ࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡀ⏕ࡌࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ FRB ࡣࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞≧ἣࡢ୰ࠊᕷሙ✚ᴟⓗධࡋὶືᛶࡢ౪⤥ࡘࡵࡓࠋලయⓗࡣ ၟᴗ㖟⾜ࡢಖ᭷ࡍࡿᰴᘧࢆ㉎ධࠊࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࢆᢸಖ⼥㈨ࢆᐇ⾜ࡋࡓࠋࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࡢ㉎ධࡣ ᩘ༓൨ࢻࣝࡢࡰࡗࡓࠋᑐ㇟࡞ࡗࡓࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࡢࢇࡣࠊࣇࢽ࣓ࣇࣞࢹࣜࢵࢡ ࣐ࢵࢡࡢࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࠊFRB ࡣ㔞ࡢࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࢆᢪ࠼ࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࡀࠊᕷሙ ࡽ㔞ࡢドๆࢆ྾࠸ୖࡆࡓࡢ࡛ࠊ2009 ᖺࡲ࡛ࡣ㖟⾜࠾ࡼࡧ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡣᏳᐃࡋࡓࠋ㹄㹐 㹀ࡢࡇࡢᨻ⟇ࡼࡗ࡚ࠊࡾ࠶࠼ࡎ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢ᭱ᝏࡢ≧ἣࡣ㑊ࡅࡽࢀࡓࠋࡇࡇ࡛㔜せ࡞ࡇ ࡣࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡼࡗ࡚ᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡉࢀࡓὶືᛶၥ㢟ࡀ࣮࣐ࣜࣥࢩࣙࢵࢡ௨㝆ࠊ༢࡞ࡿὶ ືᛶ༴ᶵࡽᨭᡶ⬟༴ᶵᣑࡋࡓࡇ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡢ࣓࢝ࢽࢬ࣒ࡣ༴ᶵࡢᣑࡀࡾࡘ࠸࡚࠸ࡃࡘࡢⅬࢆ♧၀ࡍࡿࠋࡲࡎࠊ࣊ ࢵࢪࣇࣥࢻࠊࢹ࣮ࣛࣂࣥࢡࠊၟᴗ㖟⾜ࡀᡭᣢࡕドๆࡢୗⴠࡼࡗ࡚ᕧ㢠ࡢ㔠⼥ᦆኻࢆฟ ࡋࡓࠋࡉࡽࠊ▷ᮇ㔠⼥౫Ꮡࡋ࡚࠸ࡓᢞ㈨ᐙࡀ࡞ࡐ༴ᶵ㝗ࡗࡓࢆㄝ᫂ࡍࡿࠋࡑࡇඹ ㏻ࡋ࡚ぢࡽࢀࡿࡇࡣࠊୗⴠࡍࡿドๆࡢ㈙ᡭࡀ࡞ࡗࡓࡇ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡀ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡢ 31 ࡇࡢᩘ್ࡣJ.Jablecky and M.Machaj (2011) p.215ࡼࡿࠋ 80 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ᶵ⬟ࢆࡰ࣐ࣄࡉࡏࡓࠊࡇ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ◚⥢ࡀ࠸ࡗࡓࢇშࡉࢀࡿࠊࡑࡢ┤๓ࡢമົ㉸㐣㢠ࡀ ᩘ᪥࡛ࡑࡢᩘಸ⭾ࢀୖࡀࡿࠋᐇࠊ࣮࣐ࣜࣥࣈࣛࢨ࣮ࢬࡢ◚⥢ࡋࡓࡢമົ㉸㐣ࡣ 250 ൨ ࢻࣝ⛬ᗘぢ✚ࡶࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊ◚⥢ᚋ᫂ࡽ࡞ࡗࡓമົ㉸㐣ࡣࡑࡢᙜึࡢぢ✚ࡶࡾࡢ 3 ಸ௨ୖ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓ࠸࠺32ࠋGoodhart and Tsomocos (2011)ࡣࢹࣇ࢛ࣝࢺࡀ࡞ࡐᛴ⃭ മົ㉸㐣ࢆቑࡸࡍࡘ࠸࡚ࠊࡘࡂࡢ 3 Ⅼࢆᣲࡆ࡚࠸ࡿࠋձ ◚⏘ࢩࣙࢵࢡࡼࡗ࡚ᙉไⓗ ࡞ᢞࡆࡾࡀ⏕ࡌࡿ࠸࠺ணࡀ⏕ࡲࢀࠊಖ᭷ࡍࡿ㈨⏘౯್ࡀ⃭ῶࡍࡿࠋղ ◚⏘ࡋࡓ㖟⾜ࡢ മົ⪅ࡣࠊࡶࡣࡸಙ⏝⥔ᣢࡢᚲせࡀ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓࡢ࡛ࠊ࡛ࡁࡿࡔࡅᑡ࡞ࡃᨭᡶ࠾࠺ࡍࡿࠊ࠶ ࡿ࠸ࡣᨭᡶ࠸ࢆᘏᮇࡋࡼ࠺ࡍࡿࠋճ ᑓ㛛ⓗ▱㆑ࢆࡶࡗࡓ♫ဨࡀ࠸࡞ࡃ࡞ࡾࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢࣀ ࢘ࣁ࢘ࡀ✺↛ኻࢃࢀࠊΰࡍࡿࠋ ࣇࢭ࣮ࣝ㖟⾜ࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡢᝏࡀࡢࡼ࠺⤒῭༴ᶵ⧅ࡀࡗࡓ㸽ᨻᗓ ࡣࡢࡼ࠺ࠊᕷሙࢆᏳᐃࡉࡏࡓ㸽࠸࠺ほⅬࡼࡾࠊ࣐ࢡࣟࣔࢹ࡛ࣝࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࢆᢅ ࡗࡓ◊✲ࡣከࡃᏑᅾࡍࡿࠋࣇࢭ࣮ࣝ⌮ㄽࢆᏛㄝྐⓗ㏙ࡿ࡞ࡽࠊࡑࢀࡣ᪤㏙ࡓ ࡼ࠺ࠊI.Fisher (1933)ࠊBernanke and Blinder (1988)ࠊBernake and Gertler (1989)ࠊ Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) ࢆᄏ▮ࡍࡿࠋࡃࠊ㈨⏘ࡢΎ⟬ࡀᐇែ⤒῭࣐ࢼࢫࡢᙳ 㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍࡇࢆ᭱ึ⌮ㄽⓗ᫂ࡽࡋࡓ Fisher ࡣ㧗ࡃホ౯ࡉࢀࡡࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ᭱㏆ࡢ ◊✲ࡣࠊമๆࡢࡼ࠺࡞㔠⼥㈨⏘ࡢ༷ࡀ࡞ࡐᐇែ⤒῭ࢆᝏࡉࡏࡿࡢࡘ࠸࡚ヲ⣽ศᯒ ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡃࠊ㖟⾜ࡢ⣧㈨⏘ࡢຎὀ┠ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࢀࡣࠊ㖟⾜ࡢ㈨⏘ຎࡀ㐍ࡵࡤࠊ 㖟⾜ࡢ㈚ฟ⬟ຊࡀῶ㏥ࡍࡿࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ㔠⼥༴ᶵࢆ㖟⾜⤒㊰ࡢほⅬࡽᤊ࠼ࡼ ࠺ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡀὶ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢ௦⾲ⓗ◊✲ࡣ Kashap and Stein (2000) ࡸ Stein (2010) ࡛ ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡽࡢㄽᩥࡣࠊ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡀ⏕ࡌࡓ㖟⾜㈚ࢳࣕࣥࢿࣝࡀࡢࡼ࠺ᢞ㈨ῶᑡࢆ ࡶࡓࡽࡍࢆ⌮ㄽⓗㄝ᫂ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࡲࡓࠊࢣࣥࢬࡢ⤯ᑐⓗὶືᛶ㑅ዲ㐳ࡿ◊✲ࡶ࠸ࡃࡘ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࣇࢭ࣮ࣝ ࡼࡿ౯᱁ᭀⴠࡣࠊ㖟⾜ࡢពᛮỴᐃᙳ㡪ࡍࡿࡀࠊࡑࡢሙྜࠊᢞ㈨ࣉࣟࢪ࢙ࢡࢺ㈚ࡋฟࡍ ࡢࠊ⌧㔠࡛ಖ᭷ࡍࡿࡢࠊ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣࡢ㔠⼥㈨⏘ࢆ㈙࠺ࡢࠊ࠸࠺㑅ᢥࢆ㖟⾜㏕ࡿࡇ ࡞ࡿࠋ୍ࡘࡢ㔜せ࡞㑅ᢥࡣ⌧㔠ಖ᭷࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࡞ࡐ࡞ࡽᑗ᮶࢟ࣕࢵࢩࣗࡣᚲせ࡞ࡿࡽ ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡀ⏕ࡌࡓࠊᐇ≀ᢞ㈨ࡸമๆᢞ㈨ࡼࡾࡶ⌧㔠㑅ዲࡀ⤯ᑐⓗ࡞ࡿྍ⬟ ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ࠋShleifer and Vishny (1997) ࠾ࡼࡧ Holmstrom and Tirole (1998) ࡣࠊᴗ࠶ࡿ ࠸ࡣ㖟⾜ࡀᑗ᮶ࡢ⌧㔠ᚲせഛ࠼࡚ணഛⓗ⌧㔠ࢆಖ᭷ࡍࡿࡇࢆ⌮ㄽⓗศᯒࡋࡓࠋ Caballero and Simsek (2010) ࡣ㖟⾜ࡀྲྀᘬඛࡢ㖟⾜Ᏻࡀ⏕ࡌࡓ⌧㔠ಖ᭷ࢆ㑅ᢥࡍ ࡿࡇࢆ᫂ࡽࡋࡓࠋHe, Kang, and Krishanmurthy (2010) ࡣ᭱㏆ࡢ⌧㔠ಖⶶࡢ◊✲ᡂ ᯝࡀࠊ㈚ฟࢆᢚ࠼࡚ࠊ⌧㔠ಖ᭷࠾ࡼࡧ㐃㖟✚❧ࢆቑຍࡉࡏ࡚࠸ࡿ⌧ᐇ୍⮴ࡍࡿ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ ࡿࠋ ࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࢆ㔠⼥つไࡢほⅬࡽศᯒࡋࡓ◊✲ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋStein㸦2011㸧ࡣࠊᐙィࠊ㖟 ⾜ࠊᐶᐜ࡞ᢞ㈨ᐙ㸦Patient Investors㸧ࡢ㸱㒊㛛ࡽᡂࡿࠊ࢟ࣕࢵࣉ࣭ࣥࢻ࣭ࢺ࣮ࣞࢻ࣭ 32 Goodhart, Charles A. E. and Dimitrios P. Tsomocos (2011) ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 81 ࣉ࣮ࣟࢳ㸦The cap-and-trade approach to bank regulation㸧ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝ 㔠⼥つไࡢၥ㢟ࡘ࠸࡚ศᯒࡋࡓࠋ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣ▷ᮇമົⓎ⾜ࡼࡗ࡚㈨㔠ࢆᚓࡼ࠺ࡍࡿ ࡀࠊࡇࢀࡣᏳ᫆࡞㈨㔠⋓ᚓ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣࡑࢀࢆ㐣ᗘ࠾ࡇ࡞࠺ࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈࡀാࡃࠋ ࡋࡋࠊࡑࡇ࡛ࡣࣇࢭ࣮࣭ࣝࢥࢫࢺࢆ༑ศ⪃៖ࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ つไࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡣࠊ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡢ᭱ᚋࡢ㈚ᡭᶵ⬟ࡸ㡸㔠ಖ㝤ࡀࡇࢀࡽࡢၥ㢟ᑐ ฎࡋ࡚ࡁࡓࡀࠊ᪥ࡢࡼ࠺ࠊᚑ᮶ࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵௨እࢩࣕࢻ࢘ࣂࣥࢡࡢᙺࡀࡁ࠸≧ἣ࡛ ࡣࡇࢀࡲ࡛␗࡞ࡗࡓ㔠⼥つไࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࢆ⌮ㄽⓗ᫂ࡽࡋࡓࠋ ࡇࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ⤒῭⌮ㄽࡣࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡣ㠀ᖖཝࡋ࠸ࢩࢫࢸ࣑ࢵࢡࣜࢫࢡࢆ⏕ࡳࠊ㔠⼥ ༴ᶵࢆ῝้࡞ࡶࡢࡍࡿ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ ᨻ⟇ⓗࡣ㔠⼥༴ᶵࢆᢚ࠼ࡿࡓࡵࠊ ࠸ࡋ࡚ࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࢆ㉳ࡇࡉ࡞࠸ࡀ㔜せ࡞ࡿࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊShleifer and. Vishny (2011) ࡣࠊࡲࡎ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ㈨ᮏࢆཌࡃ✚ࡴ㸦capital cushion㸧ࡇࠊ࠾ࡼࡧ࣊࢝ࢵࢺࡸࢹ ࣞࣂࢸࣈᕷሙࡢ࣐࣮ࢪࣥࢆ㧗ࡃࡍࡿࡇࢆᥦࡍࡿࠋࡑ࠺ࡍࢀࡤࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡸࣞࣂ ࣞࢵࢪపୗࡢᝏᚠ⎔ࢆࢫࢺࢵࣉ࡛ࡁࡿ⪃࠼ࡿࠋ ࡲࡓࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡀ⌧ᐇ㉳ࡁࡓࡣࠊᨻᗓࡣ࠸ᑐᛂࡍࡁ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋࡇࢀ ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶࠊShleifer and Vishny (2011) ࡣࠊձ ᨻᗓࡀࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࢆᢸಖ㈚ฟࡍࡇࠊղ ᨻᗓࡀ┤᥋㈨⏘ࢆ㉎ධࡍࡿࠊ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ≉ᐃࡢ㈨⏘㉎ධࢆ┠ᶆࡋ࡚⿵ຓ㔠ࢆࡔࡍࡇࠊ ࡢ 2 ㏻ࡾࡀ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡋ࡚ࠊDiamond and Rajan (2010) ࠾ࡼࡧ Shleifer and Vishny (2010)ࡢ◊✲ࢆ⤂ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ๓⪅ࡣᨻᗓࡢ㈨⏘㉎ධࡼࡾࡶ㖟⾜ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢὶືᛶὀධࡀ Ⰻ࠸ࡍࡿࠋ࡞ࡐ࡞ࡽࠊᨻᗓࡣṇࡋ࠸㈨⏘౯᱁ࡀఱุ᩿࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࡽࠋᚋ⪅ࡣ㖟⾜ࢩࢫࢸ ࣒ࡢὶືᛶὀධࡣ㈨⏘౯᱁ୖ᪼⧅ࡀࡽ࡞࠸ࡋࠊ᪂ࡓ࡞㈚ቑຍࡶ⧅ࡀࡽ࡞࠸ࡍࡿࠋ 㖟⾜ࡣὶືᛶࢆணഛⓗಖⶶࡍࡿࠋ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣドๆࢆ㈙࠺ࡋ࡚ࡶഹ࡛ࠊࡑࡢᅇࡾࡣ᪂つ ㈚ࡀ᭷࡞ࡿỈ‽ࡲ࡛ୗࡀࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ㖟⾜ࡢ㈚ࡅ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ㈨ᮏὀධࡍࡿࡇࡢࡉࡽ࡞ ࡿၥ㢟ࡣࠊᨻᗓࡀ㈨㔠ᢞධࡋ࡚ࡶ⤖ᒁ◚⏘ࡋ࡚ࡋࡲ࠺ࠊ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣࠊᨻᗓࡢ㈨㔠࡛ࢠࣕࣥࣈࣝ ฟ࡚ࡉࡽࣜࢫࢡࡢ㧗࠸⾜ືࢆຓ㛗ࡍࡿ⪃࠼ࡿࠋ ࠸ࡎࢀࡋ࡚ࡶࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡀ㉳ࡁࡓࡣᨻᗓ࣭୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡢ⣲᪩࠸ᑐᛂࡀồࡵࡽࢀ ࡿࠋࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡀ㔠⼥ᕷሙࢆΰࡉࡏࠊ⤒῭ࢆ㯞⑷ࡉࡏࡿࡇࡣᚲᐃ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᨻᗓ࣭୰ኸ 㖟⾜ࡢᕷሙධࡣ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢᩆ῭ࡼࡾࡶࡴࡋࢁⴠୗࡋ⥆ࡅࡿドๆࡢ౯᱁ࢆୗࡆṆࡲࡾࡉࡏࡿ ࡇຊⅬࡀ⨨ࢀࡡࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡢព࡛ࡣࠊࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡀ㠀ఏ⤫ⓗ㔠⼥⦆࡛ಙ⏝⦆ ࢆᐇࡋࡓࡇࡣホ౯࡛ࡁࡿ33ࠋ ϭ 㔠⼥つไࡢᅾࡾ᪉ 㔠⼥つไࡢᅾࡾ᪉ࡘ࠸࡚⪃࠼ࡿࠋ࣓ࣜ࢝࠾ࡅࡿ㔠⼥つไࢆṔྐⓗࡳࡿࠊ㔠⼥つ ไࡀጞࡲࡗࡓࡢࡣࠊ1930 ᖺ௦࡛࠶ࡿࠋᜍៃࢆዎᶵ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ᑐࡍࡿつไࡢ㔜せᛶࡀㄆ㆑ 33 ࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡣ2008ᖺ3᭶㛤ദࡉࢀࡓࢺࣛࣥࢱ㐃㖟࡛ࡢ㆟࡛ࠊ࢘࢜ࣝࢱ࣮࣭ࣂࢪ࢙ࢵࢺ㸦Walter Bagehot㸧ࡢ ࠗࣟࣥࣂ࣮ࢻ⾤࠘㸦Lombard Street㸧ࢆྲྀࡾୖࡆ࡚ࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡀ㉳ࡁࡓࡣࠊ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀ༷ฟ᮶࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗ ࡓ࡞㈨⏘ࢆᢸಖ✚ᴟⓗ㈚ࡋฟࡍࡇࡀࠊ㔠⼥༴ᶵࢆṆࡵࡿ㔜せ࡞⟇࡛࠶ࡿ㏙࡚࠸ࡿBernanke(2008)ࠋ 82 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡿࠋ1933 ᖺࡣࢢࣛࢫ࣭ࢫࢸ࣮࢞ࣝἲ㸦Banking Act of 1933: Glass-Steagall㸧 ࡀไᐃࡉࢀ࡚ࠊၟᴗ㖟⾜ᴗົドๆᴗࡣศ㞳ࡉࡏࡽࢀࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊ㐃㑥㡸㔠බ♫ࡀタ❧ ࡉࢀ࡚ࠊ㡸㔠ಖ㝤ࡀไᐃࡉࢀࡓࠋྠἲࡢࣞࢠ࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥ Q ࡛ࡣࠊせồᡶ࠸㡸㔠ࡢࡀ ⚗Ṇࡉࢀࠊᐃᮇ㡸㔠ࡢ㔠ࡣୖ㝈ࡀㄢࡏࡽࢀࡓࠋ1933 ᖺࡣドๆἲࡀ⟇ᐃࡉࢀ࡚ࠊドๆྲྀ ᘬጤဨ㸦SEC㸧ࡀタ❧ࡉࢀࠊᢞ㈨ᐙಖㆤ┠ࡀὀࡀࢀࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡋࡋࠊࡑࡢᚋࠊ 1970 ᖺ௦ࡈࢁࡼࡾୡ⏺ⓗつไ⦆ࡢὶࢀࡀ㐍ࡳࠊ㔠⼥ࡢศ㔝࡛ࡶ㔠ࡢ⮬⏤ࠊᴗົࡢ⮬ ⏤ࡀ㐍ᒎࡋࡓࠋ1980 ᖺࡢ㡸㔠㔠⼥ᶵ㛵つไ⦆࣭㈌ᖯ⟶⌮ἲ㸦Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act: DIDMCA㸧࠾ࡼࡧ 1982 ᖺࡢ࣮࣭࢞ࣥࢭࣥࢺࢪ࢙ ࣮࣓ࣥ㡸㔠㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ἲ㸦Depository Institutions Act of 1982, Garn-St.Gremain㸧ࡼࡾࠊ NOW ຺ᐃࡢྜἲࠊ㡸㔠㔠ࠊ㈚㔠ࡢୖ㝈ࡀᗫṆࡉࢀ㔠ࡢ⮬⏤ࡀᐇࡉࢀࡓࠋࡲ ࡓࠊ 1994 ᖺ ࡢ࣮ࣜࢢࣝ ࣭ࢽ࣮ ࣝἲ㸦 Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994㸧ࡼࡾࠊᕞ㝿ᴗົࡢ⚗Ṇࡀ᧔ᗫࡉࢀࠊ1999 ᖺࡢࢢ࣒࣭࣮ࣛࣜࢳ࣭ࣈ ࣮ࣛࣜἲ㸦Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial services Modernization Act of 1999㸧ࡼࡗ ࡚㖟ドศ㞳ࡢཎ๎ࡀᗫṆࡉࢀࠊ㔠⼥ᣢᰴ♫ᙧែࡼࡿ㖟⾜ドๆࡢවᴗࡀྍ⬟࡞ࡗࡓ34ࠋ ࡉࡽࠊ㖟⾜ࡣ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡀㄢࡏࡽࢀࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣ㹀㹇㹑つไࡋ࡚▱ࡽࢀࠊᅜ㝿ⓗ άືࡍࡿ㖟⾜ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡㛵ࡍࡿᅜ㝿⤫୍ᇶ‽࡛࠶ࡿࠋ1988 ᖺࡢࣂ࣮ࢮࣝጤဨ࡛ࠊᅜ 㝿ⓗ࡞㔠⼥ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢᛶࡢᙉ㖟⾜㛫ࡢ➇த᮲௳ࡢᆒ୍ࢆ┠ᣦࡋ࡚ྜពࡉࢀࡓࡶࡢ ࡛࠶ࡿࠋཝᐦࡣࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ࠊࢠࣜࢫࠊࢻࢶࠊࢱࣜࠊ᪥ᮏࠊ࢜ࣛࣥࢲࠊ࢝ࢼࢲࠊࢫ ࢫࠊࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࢹࣥࠊ࣋ࣝࢠࠊࡢ㹅10 ㅖᅜࡽᡂࡿࣂ࣮ࢮࣝ㖟⾜ጤဨ࡛ྜពࡉࢀࡓᩥ᭩ࠕ⮬ ᕫ ㈨ ᮏ ࡢ ᐃ ᇶ ‽ 㛵 ࡍ ࡿ ᅜ 㝿 ⓗ ⤫ ୍ ࠖ㸦 International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards㸧ᇶ࡙࠸࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡣཝᐦࡣࠊࣜࢫࢡㄪᩚ῭ࡳ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡㸦Risk Adjusted Capital to Asset Ratio㸧ࡤࢀࠊᐇ㝿ࡢィ⟬ࡣࠊ㈨⏘ࢆࣜࢫࢡࡢ⛬ᗘศࡅ࡚ࠊࣜࢫࢡࡢ㧗࠸ࡶࡢࢆ᭱ 1 ࡋࠊప࠸ࡶࡢࢆ᭱ᑠࢮࣟࡋ࡚ࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀ㈨⏘ࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡋ࡚ࡅྜࢃࡏࡑࢀࡽ ࢆྜィࡍࡿࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ㈨⏘ࢆィ⟬ࡋࠊࡑࢀ࡛ࡶࡗ࡚⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࢆ㝖ࡋ࡚ồࡵࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡗ ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡀ᭱ࡢ 1 ࡛࠶ࡿࡢࡣᴗ㈚ฟࡋࠊ㖟⾜ಖ᭷ࡢᰴᘧ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ᭱ᑠࡢ ࢮࣟࡣ⌧㔠ࠊ‽ഛ㔠ࠊᅜമ࡞࡛࠶ࡿࠋ᪉ࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡢ᪉ࡣ TierϨ Tierϩศࡅࡽࢀࠊ ๓⪅ࡣ୰᰾㈨ᮏࠊᚋ⪅ࡣ✚❧㔠ࠊ㈚ಽࢀ‽ഛ㔠ࠊຎᚋമ࡞ࡢ⿵ຓⓗ㈨ᮏࡀྵࡲࢀࡿࠋ ࡑࡋ࡚ࠊࡇࡢࡼ࠺ࡋ࡚ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓẚ⋡ࡀ 8㸣ࢆୖᅇࡿࡇࡀồࡵࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡀࠊࣂ ࣮ࢮࣝϨࡋ࡚▱ࡽࢀࡿ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡つไ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ࣂ࣮ࢮࣝϨࡢၥ㢟Ⅼࡢ 1 ࡘࡣࠊ㈨⏘༊ศࡢࡃࡃࡾࡀࡲ࡞ࡇ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋᴗྥࡅ㈚ฟ ࡋࡣ୍ᚊࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺ 1 ࡉࢀࠊಽ⏘☜⋡ࡢ㧗࠸ᴗ࠾ࡼࡧప࠸ᴗࡢ༊ูࡣ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚ ࠸࡞࠸ࠋࡲࡓࠊఫᏯ㈚ࡅࡋ࡚ࡶࠊపᡤᚓ⪅ྥࡅࡑ࠺࡛࡞࠸㧗࠸ᡤᚓ⪅ྥࡅࡢ༊ูࡀ࡞ ࡉࢀࡎࠊྠࡌࡃ 0.5 ࠸࠺࢙࢘ࢺࡀࡅࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡉࡽࠊၥ㢟ࡣࡇࡢつไࡀࢡࣞࢹ 34 Mishikin (2011) ࠾ࡼࡧⓑᯂᨻࠕ⡿ᅜࡢ㔠⼥つไᨵ㠉ἲࡢᙳ㡪㸸㈨⏘㐠⏝ࡢ♧၀ࠖࢽࢵࢭᇶ♏◊✲ᡤ≉ูࣞ ࣏࣮ࢺ2 ࢆཧ↷ࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 83 ࢵࢺࢡࣛࣥࢳࢆᘬࡁ㉳ࡇࡍཎᅉ࡞ࡿࡇ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࠼ࡤࠊᬒẼࡢᝏࡼࡗ࡚Ⰻ㈨⏘ ࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࠊࡑࢀࢆൾ༷ࡍࡿᚲせࡀฟ࡚ࡁࡓࠊ㖟⾜ࡋ࡚ࡣ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࢆ⥔ᣢࡍࡿࡓࡵ ࡣࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࢆቑࡸࡍࠊ㈨⏘ࢆῶࡽࡍࡢ㑅ᢥࢆ㏕ࡽࢀࡿࠋⰋ㈨⏘ࡢⓎ⏕ࡋࡓ㖟⾜ࡀ㈨ ᮏቑᙉࡢࡓࡵ᪂ᰴࢆⓎ⾜ࡍࡿࡇࡣᐜ࡛᫆ࡣ࡞࠸ࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊศẕࡢ㈨⏘ࢆୗࡆ࡚⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ ẚ⋡ࢆ⥔ᣢࡋࡼ࠺ࡍࡿࠋࡲࡎࠊᑐ㇟࡞ࡿࡢࡀࠊࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡢ㧗࠸ᴗྥࡅ㈚ฟࡋ࡛ ࠶ࡾࠊ㈚ฟࡀᢚไࡉࢀࠊࢡࣞࢹࢵࢺࢡࣛࣥࢳࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊ ࠕ㏣࠸㈚ࡋࠖࢆಁ㐍ࡍࡿ ࠸࠺ၥ㢟ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡢῶᑡ┤㠃ࡋࡓ㖟⾜ࡣࠊඃⰋᴗᑐࡋ࡚ࡣࠊ㞟୰ⓗ㈚ ࡋࡾࠊ㈚ࡋࡀࡋࢆᐇࡋ࡚㈨⏘ࡢῶᑡࢆ⾜࠸ࠊ᪉࡛⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡢࡉࡽ࡞ࡿῶᑡࢆ㜵ࡄࡓ ࡵࠊ◚⏘ᑍ๓ࡢᴗࡶ㏣࠸㈚ࡋࢆ⥆ࡅࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡿࠋ ࡲࡓࠊࣞࢠࣗࣛࢺ࣮࣭࣮ࣜࣅࢺࣛࢪ㸦regulatory arbitrage㸧ࡶ⏕ࡌࡓࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊ㖟⾜ࡀ ㈨⏘ࡢࣜࢫࢡࡢ㐪࠸ࢆ⏝ࡋ࡚ࠊ㈚ฟࡋࢆᐇ⾜ࡍࡿࡇ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㖟⾜ࡣᏊ♫ࡋ࡚ SIV ࡸ ᑟ⟶♫ࢆചୗᣢࡕࠊ࢜ࣇࣂࣛࣥࢫࢆ᥎㐍ࡋࡓࡀࠊࡑࢀࡣࣜࢫࢡമᶒࢆษࡾ㞳ࡋࠊ⮬ᕫ ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࢆ᭷ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ㖟⾜ࡢᏊ♫ࡢ⼥㈨࠾ࡼࡧമົಖドࡢࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ ࢺࡣᑠࡉࡃ࡚῭ࢇࡔࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊ㈨⏘ࢆᮏయ࡛ಖ᭷ࡍࡿࡼࡾࡶࠊࡑࢀࡽࡢᏊ♫ࢆ㏻ࡋࡓ᪉ࡀ ࡼࡾ㈨⏘ᣑࡀྍ⬟࡞ࡿࠋࡶࡋࠊࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡀྠࡌ࡛࠶ࢀࡤࠊ࠶ࡢࡼ࠺Ꮚ♫ࡢ ⼥㈨ᣑࡶ⏕ࡌ࡞ࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡶࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡶࣜࢫ ࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡀྠࡌ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡓࡵࠊྠࡌࡼ࠺㈚ฟࡋࡀᣑࡋࡓࠋࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡢࣜ ࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡀ㧗ࡅࢀࡤࠊ࠶ࢀ⛬ࢧࣈࣉ࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡢ⼥㈨ࡣᣑࡋ࡞ࡗࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ ࡿ35ࠋ ࣂ࣮ࢮࣝϨࡢࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ၥ㢟Ⅼࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ࠊࣂ࣮ࢮࣝ㖟⾜┘╩ጤဨࡣ 1990 ᖺ௦ࡢᮎࡼ ࡾᖜ࡞ぢ┤ࡋࢆ㐍ࡵࠊ2004 ᖺ 6 ᭶᪂ BIS つไࠕ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࡢ ᐃᇶ‽㛵ࡍࡿᅜ㝿 ⓗ⤫୍㸸ᨵゞࡉࢀࡓᯟ⤌ࠖ㸦International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: a Revised Framework㸧ࢆබ⾲ࡋࠊࡇࡢ᪂ᇶ‽ࡣ 2006 ᖺᗘࡼࡾᐇࡉ ࢀࡓࠋ᪂ᇶ‽࡛ࡣಙ⏝ࣜࢫࢡࡢィ⟬᪉ἲࡀ⢭⦓ࡉࢀࡓ36ࠋ⼥㈨ඛࡢࣜࢫࢡᗘࡼࡗ࡚ࡑࡢ ࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡀィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓࠋᴗ⦼ࡢⰋ࠸ᴗࡢࣜࢫࢡ⋡ࡣపࡃࠊᝏ࠸ᴗࡢ ࣜࢫࢡ⋡ࡣ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࠋࡇࡢࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡢィ⟬ࡣ᱁ࡅ♫ࡢࡳ࡞ࡽࡎࠊ㖟⾜ෆ㒊ࡢ᱁ ࡅ࡛ࡶㄆࡵࡽࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊၟᴗ⏝ື⏘ᢞ㈨ࡀ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢᘬࡁ㔠࡞ࡗࡓࡇࢆ ⫼ᬒࠊື⏘ᢸಖ⼥㈨ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࣜࢫࢡ࢙࢘ࢺࡀ㧗ࡵタᐃࡉࢀࠊື⏘⼥㈨ࢆᢚ࠼ࡿ ຠᯝࡀᮇᚅࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡓࡔࠊࡇࡢᨵᐃࡀ㐍ࡵࡽࢀࡓᮇࡣࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡣࡑࢀ⛬ ၥ㢟࡞ࡗ࡚࠾ࡽࡎࠊࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥࡣ୍ᚊᏳゎ㔘ࡉࢀࠊࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥ ࡢࣜࢫࢡࡀ≉ู⪃៖ࡉࢀࡿࡇࡣ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡲࡓࠊࡇࡢ᪂ᇶ‽࡛ࡶ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡀ࠶ࡿࡀ ᨾ࠼ࡗ࡚ࠊἣᮇࢡࣞࢹࢵࢺࢡࣛࣥࢳࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿ࠸࠺Ⅼࡣᨵࡵࡽࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࠋᬒ Ẽࡀᝏࡍࢀࡤࠊ⼥㈨ඛࡢᴗࡢᴗ⦼ࡣᝏࡍࡿࡢ࡛ࠊࣜࢫࢡ⋡ࡣࣂ࣮ࢮࣝϨࡢሙྜࡼࡾࡶ 35 Ώ㒊⪃㸦2009㸧p.㸯58 36 ࡑࡢヲ⣽ࡣࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ࠕ᪂㹀㹇㹑つไࡘ࠸࡚ࠖࢆཧ↷ࠋhttp://www.boj.or.jp/announcements/release_2004/ data/bis0406a2.pdf 84 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ୖ᪼ࡋࠊศẕࡣࡁࡃ࡞ࡾࠊࡑࡢศ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡣపୗࡍࡿࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊࢡࣞࢹࢵࢺࢡࣛࣥ ࢳࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࡇ࡞ࡿࠋ ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡つไࡢᣢࡘࣉࣟࢩ࢝ࣜࢸࢆṇࡍࡿ᪉ἲࡀ࠸ࢁ࠸ࢁ᳨ウࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࡑࡢ୍ࡘࡣࠊ㖟⾜ࡀᬒẼᣑᮇࡣ༑ศ࡞ࣂࢵࣇ࣮ࡋ࡚ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࢆ✚ࡳቑࡋࠊᬒẼᚋ ㏥ᮇࡣࡇࢀࢆྲྀࡾᔂࡍ࠸࠺᪉ἲ࡛࠶ࡿࠋලయⓗࡣࠊಙ⏝㔞ᑐྡ┠ GDP ẚࡢࢺࣞࣥࢻ ࡽࡢ㞳ࡋ࡚ᐃ⩏ࡉࢀࡿࠊ ࠕಙ⏝㔞ᑐྡ┠ GDP ࢠࣕࢵࣉࠖࢆ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏࣂࢵࣇ࣮ࡢᡤせ ‽ഛ㔠⼥≧ἣࢆ㛵ಀࡅࡿኚᩘࡋ࡚⏝࠸ࡿࡇ࡛࠶ࡿ 37ࠋᅇࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵ࡛ࡣ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ ẚ⋡ࡣ༑ศ࠶ࡗࡓࡢࠊ◚⥢ࡋࡓࢣ࣮ࢫࡀ࠸ࡃࡘぢࡽࢀࡓࠋ⮬ᕫ㈨⏘ẚ⋡ࡢṇ☜࡞ィ⟬ ࡣ㛫ࡀࡿࠋ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣࠊィ⟬ࡢ㐣⛬࡛సⅭࡢാࡃྍ⬟ᛶࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ ࡼࡾࡶᰴ౯ࡢ᪉ࡀ㖟⾜ࡢᛶࡢᣦᶆ࡞ࡿ࠸࠺ᣦࡶ࠶ࡿ38ࠋ ࡲࡓࠊࣂ࣮ࢮࣝϪ࡛ࡣࠊ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࢆࡉࡽཝ᱁ࡍࡿᕤኵࡀ࡞ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࡢ⫼ᚋ ࡣࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏ㊊ࡀ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢᅉ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊつไࡢ ᙉࡣ࣋ࢿࣇࢵࢺࢥࢫࢺࡀࡘࡡ┦క࠺ࠋ㔠⼥༴ᶵࢆᮍ↛㜵ࡄᙺࢆᣢࡘࡀࠊ㠃ࠊ つไࡢᙉࡣ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ┈ࡢపୗࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋࠊ㐣ᗘ࡞ࣜࢫࢡࢸࢡࡸࢩࣕࢻ࣮ࣂࣥ࢟ࣥࢢ ࡢ୍ᒙࡢᣑࢆຓ㛗ࡍࡿࠋ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ┈పୗࡣ㈚ฟ⬟ຊࡢపୗ⏕ࡳࠊୡ⏺つᶍ࡛ࡢᡂ㛗㕌 ࡘ࡞ࡀࡿ༴㝤ࡶᣦࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ39ࠋ ࡲࡓࠊ⌧⾜ࡢィᇶ‽ࡢḞ㝗ࡶᣦࡉࢀࡿࠋ㔠⼥㈨⏘ࡣཎ๎ࡋ࡚౯࡛ホ౯ࡍࡁ࡛࠶ ࡿ࡞ࡽࠊ㔠⼥㈇മࡶ౯࡛ホ౯ࡉࢀࡿࡁ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㈨⏘࣭㈇മࡀ㠀ᑐ㇟ⓗホ౯ࡉࢀࡿ⌧⾜ ࡢィᇶ‽࡛ࡣࠊ༴ᶵࡀ㉳ࡁ࡚ホ౯ᦆࡀฟࡓሙྜࡣࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡀ࠸മᶒࢆᣢࡕ࠶ࡗ࡚ ࠸ࡿ㔠⼥ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢ⌧≧࡛ࡣࠊࡑࡢホ౯ᦆࡀ┦ẅࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡞ࡃࠊ㛵ಀࡍࡿࡍ࡚ࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ 㛵ࢆമົ㉸㐣㝗ࢀࡿ༴㝤ࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢィᇶ‽ࡢၥ㢟ࡀ㔠⼥༴ᶵࢆࡶࡓࡽࡋࡓ࠸࠺ࡢ࡛ ࠶ࡿ40ࠋࡇࡢࡼ࠺ࠊᕷሙࡀΰࡋ࡚࠸ࡿሙྜࡣ㐺ษ࡞ホ౯ᇶ‽ࢆࡢࡼ࠺ࡍࡿࡣ ᚋ᳨ウࡍࡁ㔜せ࡞ㄢ㢟࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢሗ㓘ไᗘࡶၥ㢟࡛࠶ࡿࠋࢦ࣮ࣝࢻ࣐࣭ࣥࢧࢵࢡࢫࠊ࣭ࣔࣝ࢞ࣥࢫࢱ࣮ࣥࣞ࡞ ࡢせᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࡢ࣮࣎ࢼࢫ⥲㢠ࡣࠊ250 ൨ࢻࣝ㸦2005 ᖺ㸧 ࠊ360 ൨ࢻࣝ㸦2006 ᖺ㸧 ࠊ380 ൨ ࢻࣝ㸦2007 ᖺ㸧࠸࠺ᕧ㢠ࡢࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋ࣮࣎ࢼࢫࡣ 1 ᖺ㛫ࡢ┈ࡼࡗ࡚Ỵࡲࡿࠋࡋ ࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊᕧ㢠ࡢ࣮࣎ࢼࢫࡣࢺ࣮ࣞࢲࡓࡕࡗ࡚ࠊࣁࣜࢫࢡࠊࣁࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡢᢞ㈨⾜ື ࡢࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈ࡞ࡿࠋᡂຌࡍࢀࡤᕧ㢠ࡢሗ㓘ࡀᚓࡽࢀࡿࠋኻᩋࡋ࡚ࡶゎ㞠ࡉࢀࡿࡔࡅ࡛ࠊ ᦆኻࡣࡑࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡀ㈇࠺ࡢࡳ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊ᭱⤊ⓗࡑࡢᦆኻࢆ⿵࡚ࢇࡍࡿࡢࡣࠊ◚⥢ ࡋࡓ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࢆᩆ῭ࡍࡿᅜẸ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡘࡲࡾࠊࢺ࣮ࣞࢲࡣ᭱⤊ⓗࡣᅜẸࡢᨭᡶ࠺⛯㔠ࢆඖ ᡭࡋ࡚ࠊᕧ㢠ࡢࢠࣕࣥࣈࣝࢆ࠾ࡇ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓࡇ࡞ࡿࠋࢺ࣮ࣞࢲࡗ࡚ᡂຌࡍࢀࡤࠊ ᕧ㢠ࡢሗ㓘ࠊኻᩋࡍࢀࡤ⮬ศࡢ♫ࡉࡽࡣᅜẸࡀᚋጞᮎࢆࡋ࡚ࡃࢀࡿ࠸࠺ࠊࣔࣛࣝࣁࢨ 37 Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2010) ࠾ࡼࡧⓑሯ㔜㸦2011㸧ࢆཧ↷ࠋ 38 Goodhart, Charles A. E. and Dimitrios P. Tsomocos (2011). 39 ΎỈၨ㸦2011㸧 40 ⚟⩏㧗㸦2011㸧ࢆཧ↷ࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 85 ࣮ࢻࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡋ࡚ࠊࡇࡢࣔࣛࣝࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࢆᢚ࠼ࡿ⤌ࡳࡣఱࡶ↓ࡗࡓ ࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࢞ࣂࢼࣥࢫᵓ㐀ࡽゝ࠼ࡤࠊᰴࡀࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࢺ࣮ࣞࢲࡢሗ㓘ṑṆࡵࢆࡅࡿ ᙺࢆᯝࡓࡍࡣࡎ࠶ࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊᙼࡽࡶࡲࡓࠊࢃࡎࡢᢞ㈨㈨ᮏ࡛ࡁ࡞ぢ㏉ࡾࢆᮇᚅࡍࡿ ࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᙼࡽࡗ࡚ࡶࡲࡓࠊࣁࣜࢫࢡࠊࣁࣜࢱ࣮ࣥ⾜ືࢆຓ㛗ࡍࡿࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈ ࡀാࡃࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㖟⾜ࡢሙྜࡣ㡸㔠⪅ࡀཝࡋ࠸┘どࡢ┠ࢆྥࡅࡿࡣࡎ࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊᙼࡽࣁ ࣜࢫࢡࠊࣁࣜࢱ࣮ࣥ⾜ືࢆᢚṆࡍࡿࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈࡣാ࡞࠸ࠋ࡞ࡐ࡞ࡽࠊࡓ࠼ࠊ⮬ ศࡢ㖟⾜ࡀ◚⥢ࡋࡓࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ㡸㔠ಖ㝤ᶵᵓࡀ㡸㔠ࢆಖㆤࡋ࡚ࡃࢀࡿࠊ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀ ᭱ᚋࡢ㈚ᡭࡋ࡚㖟⾜ࢆᩆ῭ࡋ࡚ࡃࢀࡿࡇࢆ⇍▱ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡽࡔࠋ ࡑࡇ࡛ࠊࡇࡢၥ㢟ࢆゎỴࡍࡿ᪉ἲࡣࠊࢺ࣮ࣞࢲࡀ▷ᮇⓗ࡞ࣜࢫࢡࢆࡿࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈࢆ ↓ࡃࡍࡇ࡛࠶ࡿࠋRoubini and Mihm (2010) ࡣḟࡢࡼ࠺࡞ᥦࢆ࠾ࡇ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ୍ࡘࡣࠊ ࣮࣎ࢼࢫࡢࣉ࣮ࣝไ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ1 ᖺࡢᴗ⦼ุ࡛᩿ࡍࡿࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ3 ᖺ㛫⛬ᗘࡢᴗ⦼ࢆᖹᆒࡋ ࡚࣮࣎ࢼࢫࢆᨭᡶ࠺࠸࠺ไᗘ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢᮇ㛫୰ᦆኻࢆⓎ⏕ࡍࢀࡤࠊࡑࡇࡽ࣌ࢼࣝࢸ ࡋ࡚ᦆኻศࢆᕪࡋᘬࡃࠋࡘࡵࡣࠊ࣮࣎ࢼࢫࢆ⌧㔠࡛ᨭᡶ࠺ࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃ࡚ࠊ⮬ศࡓࡕࡀ ⤌ᡂࡋࡓドๆࡼࡗ࡚ᨭᡶ࠺࠸࠺ไᗘ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ⮬ศࡢࡶࡢ࡞ࡿࡍࢀࡤࠊࡑࡢ⤌ᡂࡣ ៅ㔜࡞ࡿ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋࡇࡢࢀࢆ᥇⏝ࡍࡿࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡀྠࡌࡼ࠺୍ᩧᐇ ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࠋࡑ࠺࡛࡞࠸ࠊࡇࡢ᪂ࡓ࡞ไᗘࢆ㐺⏝ࡋࡓ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡽᚑ᮶ࡢࡲࡲࡢ㔠 ⼥ᶵ㛵ேᮦ⛣ືࡀ㉳ࡁࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊRoubini and Mihm ࡣࡇࡢሗ㓘ไᗘࢆࡵࡄࡿ㆟ㄽ ࡣᨻᗓࡢ㛵ࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿࠊᙉㄪࡍࡿࠋ ࡲࡓࠊᅇࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵ࡛㔠⼥ࢩࢫࢸ࣒㔜࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆࡶࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵㸦Systemically important financial institutions:SIFIs㸧ࡀ◚⥢ࡍࢀࡤ㔜࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆᣢࡘࡇࡀศࡗࡓࠋ㔠 ⼥ᶵ㛵ࡀࡁࡃ࡞ࢀࡤࠊᨻᗓࡋ࡚ࡣ too big to fail ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ too interconnected to fail ᨻ⟇ ࢆࡽࡊࡿࢆᚓ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡿࠋࡁ࡞㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣࡑࢀࢆぢ㉺ࡋ࡚ࣁࣜࢫࢡࠊࣁࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ㈨ ⏘㐠⏝ࢆ⾜࠸ࡸࡍ࠸ࠋ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ⫧ࡣ⤒Ⴀ⪅ࡢࣔࣛࣝࣁࢨ࣮ࢻࢆᣍࡁࠊࣜࢫࢡࢸࢡࢆ ಁ㐍ࡍࡿࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ༴ᶵ࡞ࢀࡤᡂࡿ㖟⾜࡞ࢁ࠺࠸࠺ࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࠋ ⌧ 2009 ᖺ 2010 ᖺ࡛ 250 ࡢᑠ㖟⾜ࡀ㖟⾜྾ྜేࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࢦ࣮ࣝࢻ࣐ࣥࢧࢵ ࢡࢫドๆ࣭ࣔࣝ࢞ࣥࢫࢱ࣮ࣥࣞドๆࡀ୍ᩧ㖟⾜ᣢࡕᰴ♫࡞ࡗࡓࡢࡶࠊࢭࣇࢸࢿࢵ ࢺࡢ୰ධࢀࠊFDIC ࡢᜠᜨࢆཷࡅࠊࡉࡽࡣ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡢ⼥㈨ࡀཷࡅࡽࢀࡿ࠸࠺࣓ࣜࢵࢺ ࢆ≺ࡗࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊつไᙜᒁࢆ㒔ྜࡢⰋ࠸ࡼ࠺㑅ᢥ࡛ࡁࡿ࠸࠺ព࡛ࠕつไ ࢩࣙࢵࣆࣥࢢ㸦reguratory shopping㸧ࠖゝࢃࢀࡿࠋᚋࡶࠊ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡢᐻ༨つᶍᣑ ࡣࡍࡍࡳࠊTBTFࠊTITF ၥ㢟ࡣ῝้ࡋࠊ᭱⤊ⓗࡣࡁࡍࡂ࡚ᨻᗓࡶᩆ࠼࡞࠸≧ἣ㏣ ࠸㎸ࡲࢀ࡞࠸ࡼ࠺ࠊ⟇ࡀồࡵࡽࢀࡿࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊࡇࡢၥ㢟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࡘࡂࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࡇࡀ ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ 㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣࡁࡃ࡞ࢀࡤࠊ ࠕつᶍࡢ⤒῭ࠖ࠾ࡼࡧࠕ⠊ᅖࡢ⤒῭ࠖࡀാࡃ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡀࠊ᭱ ㏆ࡢᐇド◊✲࡛ࡣࠊ᭱㐺㈨⏘つᶍࡣ 1000 ൨ࢻ࡛ࣝࠊࡑࢀ௨ୖࡁࡃ࡞ࡿຠ⋡ᛶࡣపୗࡍ ࡿഴྥ࠶ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊ⌧ᅾ⣙ 2 ࢻࣝࡢ㈨⏘つᶍࢆ᭷ࡍࡿࢩࢸࣂࣥࢡࡣࠊ20 ࡢ㖟⾜ ศࡋࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀ 1000 ൨ࢻࣝࡢ㈨⏘ࡍࡿ࠸࠺ࡇ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᕧ㖟⾜ࡀ⮬ࡽࡑࡢࡼ࠺ 86 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 㑅ᢥࡍࡿࣥࢭࣥࢸࣈࡋ࡚ࠊ㈨⏘つᶍࡀ 1000 ൨ࢻࣝ௨ୗࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ ࡣ 12㸣ࠊࡑࢀ௨ୖࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣ 20㸣ࡍࡿ࠸࠺ࡼ࠺࡞ࡶ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ41ࠋࡉࡽᕧ 㖟⾜ᑐࡍࡿㄢ⛯ᙉࡶ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡢཝ᱁ࡶ㔜せ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࡢሙྜࠊSEC ࡣ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࢆ✚ᴟⓗୗ ࡆ࡚࠸ࡗࡓࠋࡓ࠼ࡤࠊᡭᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࡢ⮬ᕫ㈨ᮏẚ⋡ࡀ 3㸣࡛࠶ࡗࡓ࠸࠺ࡢࡣࠊ1 ࢻࣝࡢ ㈨ᮏ࡛ 33 ࢻࣝࡢ㈨⏘㐠⏝ࢆࡍࡿ࠸࠺ࠊ㠀ᖖࣁࣜࢫࢡ࡞㐠⏝࡛࠶ࡿ㸦ࣞࣂࣞࢵࢪࡀ 33 ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࢆពࡍࡿ 1¹0.03㸧ࠋ つไᑐ㇟₃ࢀࡢ࡞࠸ࡇࡶ㔜せ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㖟⾜ࡣつไࢆ㏨ࢀࡿࡓࡵࠊࢩࣕࢻ࢘ࣂࣥࢡࢆ タ❧ࡋࡓࠋつไࢆཷࡅ࡞࠸ࡇ࡛ࠊᮏయࡢ㖟⾜௦ࢃࡗ࡚ࣁࣜࢫࢡ࡞㈨⏘㐠⏝ࢆ࠾ࡇ࡞ࡗ ࡓࠋᅇࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣࢩࣕࢻ࢘ࣂࣥ࢟ࣥࢢࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢၥ㢟ࢆࡁࡃࢡ࣮ࣟࢬࢵࣉࡋࡓࠋࡇ ࢀࡽࡢᶵ㛵ࡶ㏻ᖖࡢ㖟⾜ྠᵝつไࡢᑐ㇟ࡋ࡞ࡅࢀࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ࢜ࣇࣂࣛࣥࢫᇶ‽ࡢ ཝ᱁ࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿࠋᑠࡢᕪࢆࡘࡅ࡚ࡣ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋ࡞ࡐ࡞ࡽࠊࢆつไࡋ࡚ᑠࢆチࡏࡤࠊ ᑠࡢ᪉ࣁࣜࢫࢡ⾜ືࡀ⛣㌿ࡉࢀࡿࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 㔠⼥༴ᶵࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊࡇࡢࡼ࠺㔠⼥┘╩యไࡢഛࡀᣦࡉࢀࡿࡀࠊࡑࢀࡼࡾࡶࡶࡗ 㔜せ࡞ࡢࡣ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࡢ࠶ࡾ᪉࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡶࡋࠊࡍ࡛㏙ࡓࡼ࠺ FRB ࡀࡶࡗ᪩ࡵ㔠⼥ ࢆᘬ⥾ࡵ࡚࠾ࢀࡤࠊఫᏯࣂࣈࣝࡶⓎ⏕ࡏࡎࠊࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࡑࡢᚋࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡶ࡞ࡗࡓࡇ ࡞ࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ㔠⼥つไ࠾ࡼࡧ┘╩యไࡢഛࡢࡳᖐࡍࡿࡢࡣ ㄗࡾ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ80 ᖺ௦ᚋ༙ࡢ᪥ᮏࡢࣂࣈࣝ 2000 ᖺ௦ࡢ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࡢኻᩋඹ㏻ࡍ ࡿࡢࡣࠊ≀౯Ỉ‽ࡢᣦᶆࡋ࡚ CPI ࢆ㐣どࡋࠊ㈨⏘౯᱁ࡃఫᏯ౯᱁ࡸᆅ౯ࡢືྥ㔠 ⼥ᨻ⟇ࢆᫎࡉࡏ࡞ࡗࡓࡇ࠶ࡿࠋ᭱ᚋ FRB ࡢ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࡘ࠸࡚⪃࠼ࡿࠋ Ϯ 㐃㑥‽ഛࡢᨻ⟇ᑐᛂࡢホ౯ ఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢୗⴠࡀ㢧ⴭ࡞ࡾࠊ㔠⼥ᕷሙ༴ᶵࡢࡋࡀぢ࠼ጞࡵࡓ 2007 ᖺኟ㡭ࡼࡾ FRB ࡣᨻ⟇㔠ࢆᛴ⃭ୗࡆጞࡵࡓࠋᅗ⾲ 16 ࡀ♧ࡍࡼ࠺ࠊ2007 ᖺኟࡣ 5㸣௨ୖ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࡣࠊࡸࡃ 1 ᖺ࡛ࡰ 0㸣࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡓࡔࡋࠊࡇࡢᨻ⟇ᑐᛂࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊ㐜ࡍࡂࡓ࠸ ࠺ᢈุࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡓ࠼ࡤࠊThomas㸦2011㸧ࡣࠕ࣋ࢫࢱࣥࢬࡀ◚⥢ࡋࠊJP ࣔࣝ࢞ࣥ྾ ࡉࢀࡓ 2 ᪥ᚋࡢ 3 ᭶ 18 ᪥ FRB ࡣ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 0.75㸣ᘬࡁୗࡆ࡚ࠊ2.25㸣ࡋࠊࡉࡽ 4 ᭶ 30 ᪥ࡢ FOMC ㆟࡛ࡉࡽ 2㸣ࡲ࡛ୗࡆࡓࡀࠊࡑࡢᚋ 10 ᭶ 8 ᪥ 1.5㸣ୗࡆࡿࡲ࡛ 㸳ࣨ᭶௨ୖࡶ 2㸣ᤣ࠼⨨࠸ࡓࡲࡲ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡇࢀࡣ᫂ࡽᐇែ⤒῭ࡢᝏࢆぢ㏨ࡋࠊ 41 Friedman (2010) p.220. ࡲࡓ2010ᖺ7᭶ไᐃࡉࢀࡓࢻࢵࢻ࣭ࣇࣛࣥࢡἲࡣၟᴗ㖟⾜ᑐࡋ࡚࣮࣭࣮࣎ࣝ࢝ࣝࣝ ࡛つᶍࡸࣜࢫࢡࡢ࠶ࡿྲྀᘬࢆ┤᥋ไ㝈ࡍࡿつไࢆᑟධࡋࡓࠋࡘࡲࡾࠊࣜࢫࢡࡢ㧗࠸ᢞ㈨㖟⾜ᴗົࢆࠊỴ῭ᴗົࢆᢅ࠺ ၟᴗ㒊㛛ࡽษࡾ㞳ࡋࠊၟᴗ㖟⾜ࡢࡳཌ࠸ࢭ࣮ࣇࢸࢿࢵࢺつไࢆㄢࡋࠊࡘ㐣ᗘ࡞つᶍᣑࢆṇࡋࡼ࠺࠸ ࠺つไ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ᭱⤊ⓗࢻࢵࢺ࣭ࣇࣛࣥࢡἲ࡛᥇⏝ࡉࢀࡓ࣭࣮࣎ࣝ࢝ࣝࣝࡣࠊձ㖟⾜ࡀ⮬ᕫࡢ┈ࡢࡓࡵ࣊ࢵࢪࣇ ࣥࢻࡸࣉ࣮ࣛ࣋ࢺ࣭࢚ࢡࢸ࣭ࣇࣥࢻࡢಖ᭷ࡸᢞ㈨ࡲࡓࡣࢫ࣏ࣥࢧ࣮࡞ࡿࡇࡢ⚗Ṇࠊ⮬ᕫ຺ᐃྲྀᘬࡢ⚗ Ṇ࠸ࡗࡓᴗົつไࠊղ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ㈇മయࢆศẕࡋࠊಶู㔠⼥ᶵ㛵㈇മࡢࢩ࢙ࡢୖ㝈ࢆ10㸣ࡍࡿࠊ࠸ࡗ ࡓつᶍࡢつไ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ⩝㸦2011㸧ࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ ࣥࣇࣞࡢ᪉ࢆᜍࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡽࡔࠖཝࡋࡃ FRB ࡢ㐜࠸ᑐᛂࢆᢈุࡍࡿ42ࠋ ᅗ⾲ 16 ࣮࣐ࣜࣥࢩࣙࢵࢡᚋࡢ FF ࣮ࣞࢺ 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FREDࠊࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ ᅗ⾲ 17 Ẹ㛫㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ㉸㐣‽ഛ㔠㸦༢ 10 ൨ࢻࣝ㸧 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FREDࠊࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㖟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࣮࣋ࢫ 42 Thomas (2011) p.154. 2011-05-01 2011-02-01 2010-11-01 2010-08-01 2010-05-01 2010-02-01 2009-11-01 2009-08-01 2009-05-01 2009-02-01 2008-11-01 2008-08-01 2008-05-01 2008-02-01 2007-11-01 2007-08-01 0.00 87 88 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ࡋࡋࠊ࠸ࡎࢀࡋ࡚ࡶ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡣࢃࡀᅜྠᵝᮍ▱ࡢ㠀ఏ⤫ⓗ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࡢୡ⏺㋃ࡳ ㎸ࡴࡇ࡞ࡗࡓ43ࠋ2007 ᖺኟ㛤ࢀࡓ FOMC ㆟ࡣࠊἣࡢ฿᮶ࢆᐹ▱ࡋࠊFF ࣮ࣞࢺ ࢆ 5.25㸣ࡽ 4.75㸣 0.5㸣ୗࡆࡓࠋࡑࢀ௨㝆ࡶᚎࠎୗࡆࠊ2008 ᖺ 4 ᭶ࡣ 2㸣ࡋࠊ ࡉࡽ 2008 ᖺ 12 ᭶ࡣ 0 ࡽ 0.25㸣ࡲ࡛ୗࡆࡓࠋࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡣ✚ᴟⓗࡘ⫹㔠⼥ ⦆ࢆ᥎㐍ࡋࡓࠋලయⓗࡣࢮࣟไ⣙㝗ࡿ๓✚ᴟⓗ࡞㈨⏘㉎ධࢆጞࡵࠊὶືᛶ౪⤥ࢆᐇ ⾜ࡋࡓ44ࠋᙜ↛ࡢࡇ࡞ࡀࡽࠊࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࡋ࡚ FRB ࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡣᖜᣑࡍࡿࡇ ࡞ࡗࡓࠋᅗ⾲ 18 ࡣࠊ2006 ᖺ 12 ᭶ࡽ 2011 ᖺ 9 ᭶ࡅ࡚ FRB ࡢ㈨⏘ࡀࡢࡼ࠺ኚ ࡋࡓࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡲࡎࠊ㈨⏘ࡀ 2006 ᖺ 12 ᭶ࡢ 9067 ൨ࢻࣝࡽ 2008 ᖺ 12 ᭶ࡣ 2 2934 ൨ࢻ୍ࣝᣲ 2.5 ಸ㊴ࡡୖࡀࡾࠊ2011 ᖺࡣ 2 9000 ൨ࢻࣝ࠾ࡼࡑ 3.2 ಸ ⭾ᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡘࡂࠊࡑࡢ୰㌟࡛࠶ࡿࡀࠊ2006 ᖺࡣ⥲㈨⏘ࡢ 90㸣㏆ࡃࡀ㈈ົ┬ドๆ ࡛༨ࡵࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡓࡀࠊ2009 ᖺࡣࢃࡎ 35㸣ࢆ༨ࡵࡿ㐣ࡂ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡑࢀࡣ FRB ࡢྛ ✀ࡢ㈚ࡀᛴቑࡋࡓࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢ࡞ࡶࡢࡣࢱ࣮࣒ධᮐไᗘ㸦Term Auction Facility: TAF㸧࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࡢไᗘࡢ≉ᚩࡣࠊᡭࡣࡑࡢྡ๓ࢆ᫂ࡍࡇ࡞ࡃࠊ➇தᕷሙ࡛㈨㔠ࢆᚓ ࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࠶ࡿࠋ㔠⼥Ᏻࡀᛴ⃭㧗ࡲࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡁࡣࠊㄡࡋࡶࡀᚰᬯ㨣 㝗ࡾࠊᑡࡋࡢᏳࢆㄏ࠺⾜ືࡀࡑࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࢆ◚ࡓࢇ㏣࠸㎸ࡴࡇ࡞ࡿࠋFRB ࡢ⼥㈨ࢆ ཷࡅࡓࡇࡣࡑࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡀ㈨㔠ࢩ࣮ࣙࢺ┤㠃ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿཷࡅྲྀࡽࢀࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ 45ࠋ ࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊࡇࡢᮇ࠾ࡅࡿ TAF ࡢᙺࡣࡁࡗࡓࠋᙜึ TAF ࡀタࡉࢀࡓ 2007 ᖺ ࡣࡑࡢ㈨㔠つᶍࡣ 200 ൨ࢻࣝ⛬ᗘ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀࠊࡑࡢᚋᣑࡋࠊ2008 ᖺࡢ࣮࣐ࣜࣥࢩࣙࢵ ࢡᚋࡣ 4500 ൨ࢻࣝᛴቑࡋࡓࠋ FRB ࡣࡲࡓ᪂ࡓ࡞⼥㈨ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࢆไᐃࡋ࡚ࠊ㖟⾜௨እࡶὶືᛶࢆ౪⤥࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺ࡋ ࡓ46ࠋࡑࡢ୰ࡣࠊᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࡢ㈚ࡸ㹁㹎ࠊᙜドๆࠊࡑࡢ㈨⏘ᢸಖドๆࡢ㈙ྲྀࡾ㈨㔠 ࡢ㈚ࡀྵࡲࢀࡿࠋ2008 ᖺ 11 ᭶ࡣ FOMC ࡣࣇࢽ࣓ࡸࣇࣞࢹ࣐ࢵࢡ࡞ࡀⓎ⾜ࡋࡓ MBS ࡢ㈙ྲྀࡾࢆᐉゝࡋࠊࡑࡢᚋࡑࡢ㈙ྲྀࡾᖜቑຍࡉࡏࡓࠋ2007 ᖺࡣࢮ࡛ࣟ࠶ࡗࡓ MBS ࡣ 2009 ᖺࡣ 9083 ൨ࢻࣝࡲ࡛ᣑࡋࠊ⌧ᅾࡶࡰྠ㢠ࡢ MBS ࡢ㈙ྲྀࡾࢆ⥅⥆ࡋ ࡚࠸ࡿ㸦2011 ᖺ 9 ᭶࡛ 8850 ൨ࢻࣝ㸧 ࠋࡲࡓࠊ2009 ᖺࡽࡣࢫ࣡ࢵࣉࡢ㡯┠ࡀぢࡽࢀࡿࠋࡇ ࢀࡣࠊFRB ࡀὶືᛶࢆቑࡸࡍ୍ࡘࡢ᪉ἲࡋ࡚ᾏእࡢ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࢫ࣡ࢵࣉࢆጞࡵࡓࡇࡼ ࡿࠋᾏእࡢ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡶࡲࡓࠊ㔞ࡢὶືᛶ౪⤥ࢆᐇࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀࠊ⮬ᅜࡢ㏻㈌࡛ࡋ౪⤥࡛ ࡁ࡞࠸ࠋ᪉࡛ചୗࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣࢻࣝࢆᚲせࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊFRB ࡣᾏእࡢ୰ኸ㖟⾜ 43 ࢃࡀᅜࡢ㔞ⓗ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇ࡣ2001ᖺ3᭶ࡽ2006ᖺ3᭶ࡲ࡛࡞ࡉࢀࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡣ2009ᖺ3᭶ࡽ2010ᖺ3᭶ࡲ࡛㸦㹏 㹃1㸧ࡉࡽ 2010ᖺ11᭶ࡽ2011ᖺ6᭶ࡲ࡛㸦㹏㹃2㸧ᐇࡋࡓࠋ 44 2002ᖺFRBࡢ⌮࡛࠶ࡗࡓࣂ࣮ࢼࣥ࢟ࡣࣇ࣮ࣜࢻ࣐ࣥࡢ90ṓࡢㄌ⏕᪥ࠊࡘࡂࡢࡼ࠺㏙࡚࠸ࡿࠋ䛂ᜍៃ 㛵ࡋ࡚࠶࡞ࡓࡀゝࡗࡓࡇࡣṇࡋࡗࡓࠋ⚾ࡓࡕࡀ㛫㐪ࡗ࡚ࡲࡋࡓࠋ⏦ࡋヂ࠶ࡾࡲࡏࢇࠋࡋࡋࠊ࠶࡞ࡓࡓࡕࡢ࠾ ࡆ࡛ࠊᗘ㐣ࡕࢆ࠾ࡋࡲࡏࢇࠖࠋBernanke (2002) 45 㐃㖟㈚ฟࡣ2ࡘࡢၥ㢟ࢆᣢࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋձ㐃㖟㈚ฟࢆཷࡅࡿࡇࡣࡑࡢ㖟⾜ࡢᴗ⦼ࡀᝏ࠸ࢩࢢࢼࣝࡋ࡚ᤊ࠼ࡽࢀࡿ ᜍࢀࡀ࠶ࡿࠋղ㐃㖟㈚ࡣ㖟⾜ࡢࡳࢆᑐ㇟ࡋ࡚ࠊࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣ⏝࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ࠋ 46 ࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺᣑࡣᗄከࡢ᪉ἲࡀ᪂ࡓ⪃࠼ࡔࡉࢀࡓࠋTSLF㸦ࢱ࣮࣒≀ドๆ㈚ฟไᗘ䠅ࠊPDCF㸦ࣉ࣐ࣛࣜ ࣮࣭ࢹ࣮࣮ࣛྥࡅࡢ㈨㔠౪⤥ไᗘ䠅ࠊAMLF㸦㹋㹋㹄ࢆᑐ㇟ࡋࡓ㸿㹀㹁㹎ὶືᛶ౪⤥ࣇࢩࣜࢸ䠅ࠊMMIFFࠊC PFF㸦ࢥ࣐࣮ࢩ࣭࣮ࣕࣝ࣌ࣃ࣮㈙ྲྀࡾไᗘ䠅ࠊTALF㸦ࢱ࣮࣒≀㈨⏘ᢸಖ⼥㈨ࣇࢩࣜࢸ㸧࡞࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 89 ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢᅜࡢ㏻㈌࡛㡸㔠ࡋ࡚ࡶࡽ࠺௦ࢃࡾࢻࣝ㡸㔠ࢆ౪⤥ࡍࡿࡇࡋࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 2007 ௨㝆 FRB ࡢ⼥㈨ィ⏬ࡣⴭࡋࡃᣑࡋࠊ⌧ᅾ࡛ࡣࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡣ 3 ࢻࣝ㏆ࡃࡲ࡛ ⭾ᙇࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢ⭾ᙇࡋࡓࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࢆᚋ࠸⦰ᑠࡋ࡚࠸ࡃࡀ FRB ࡢ㔜せ࡞ ᨻ⟇ㄢ㢟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ᅗ⾲ 18 FRB ࡢ㈨⏘ෆᐜࡢ᥎⛣㸦༢ࡣ 10 ൨ࢻࣝ㸧 ㈨⏘㡯┠ 2006.12.28 2007.12.27 2008.12.29 2009.12.31 2010.12.30 2011.9.8 㔠࠾ࡼࡧ SDR 13.24 13.24 13.24 16.24 16.24 16.24 ㈈ົ┬ドๆ 778.94 754.61 476.01 776.59 1,016.10 1,655.60 ᨻᗓᶵ㛵മ 0 0 20.88 159.88 147.46 109.78 ࣏ࣞ 36.00 42.50 80.00 0 0 0 MBS 0 0 0 908.26 992.14 884.95 TAC 0 20.00 450.22 75.92 0 0 ࡑࡢ㈚ฟ 0.49 4.53 593.52 194.10 138.12 62.06 ࣇ࣮ࣟࢺ 0.41 0.34 1.33 1.96 1.62 1.87 ࡑࡢ㈨⏘ 39.34 55.84 621.99 96.29 111.15 130.97 ࢫ࣡ࢵࣉ 0 0 0 10.27 0.08 0 ᨻᗓ㏻㈌ 38.25 38.81 38.84 42.72 43.57 44.11 ⥲㈨⏘ 906.68 929.20 2,293.37 2,278.30 2,463.23 2,901.82 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRB ࡢ࣮࣒࣮࣍࣌ࢪࡼࡾ㸦http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/㸧 ࠋ ᅗ⾲ 19 FRB ㈨⏘つᶍࡢ᥎⛣㸦༢ࢻࣝ㸧 㸦ฟᡤ㸧FRB ࡢ࣮࣒࣮࣍࣌ࢪࡼࡾ㸦http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/㸧 ࠋ 90 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ࡇࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㔞ⓗ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇ࡣ᪥ᮏࡢࡑࢀࡣ␗࡞ࡿࠋࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣࡦࡓࡍࡽ Ẹ㛫㖟⾜ࡽᅜമࢆ㈙ྲྀࡾࠊ㖟⾜ࡢᣢࡕ㔠࡛࠶ࡿ᪥㖟ᙜᗙ㡸㔠ࢆቑࡸࡑ࠺ࡋࡓ47ࠋὶືᛶ ࡢ౪⤥㔜Ⅼࡀ⨨ࢀࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㔞ⓗ⦆ᨻ⟇ࡣࠊMBS ࡞ ࡢ✚ᴟⓗ࡞㉎ධぢࡽࢀࡿࡼ࠺ࠊὶືᛶࡢ౪⤥ࡼࡾࡶࠊ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡢ㟂⤥ࢆᘬࡁ⥾ࡵࠊࡑࡢ ࡇࡼࡗ࡚ᕷሙࡢᏳᐃࢆࡵࡊࡍࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋゝ࠸࠼ࢀࡤࠊ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ࡢ㔞ⓗ⦆ᨻ⟇ࡣࣂ ࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡢ㈇മഃὀ┠ࡋࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢࡑࢀࡣ㈨⏘ഃὀ┠ࡍࡿᨻ⟇࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࣮࣐ࣜࣥ ࢩࣙࢵࢡᚋ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡣᚰᬯ㨣㝗ࡾ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡣᶵ⬟㝗ࡾࠊMMMF ࡽࡣ㈨㔠ὶኻ ࡀ⥆ࡁࠊCP ࡢ㟂せࡣ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓࠋࡑࡇ࡛ࠊ᪥ᮏࡢሙྜࡢࡼ࠺ࠊ༢㖟⾜ࡽ┤᥋ᅜമࢆ ㉎ධࡋࠊ᪥㖟ᙜᗙ㡸㔠ࢆ✚ࡳୖࡆࡓࡢ࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊCP ࡞ࡢࢡࣞࢹࢵࢺᕷሙࡀᶵ⬟ ࡍࡿࡼ࠺ࠊCP ࡞ࢆᢸಖ┤᥋㖟⾜㈚ฟࡍᨻ⟇ࢆᐇࡋࡓࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢព࡛࣓ ࣜ࢝ࡢ㔞ⓗ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇ࡣಙ⏝⦆ᨻ⟇㸦Credit Easing㸧࡛࠶ࡗࡓ48ࠋᅗ♧ࡍࢀࡤᅗ⾲ 20 ࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࡿࠋ㈨⏘ࡢ୰ࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࢆྲྀࡾ㎸ࡳ࡞ࡀࡽࠊࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺయࢆᣑࡋ࡚࠸ ࡃᨻ⟇⌮ゎ࡛ࡁࡿࠋ ᅗ⾲ 20 㠀ఏ⤫ⓗ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ ㈨⏘ ㈇മ ࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ ㈨⏘ Ᏻ࡞ ‽ഛ㡸㔠 ㈇മ ‽ഛ㡸㔠 Ᏻ࡞ 㔠⼥㈨⏘ ⌧㔠 㔠⼥㈨⏘ ⌧㔠 㸦ฟᡤ㸧ⓑሯ㔜㸦2009㸧ࢆ୍㒊ಟṇ ௨ୖᴫほࡋࡓࡼ࠺ࠊ2008 ᖺ 12 ᭶௨㝆ࡢ FRB ࡼࡿつᶍ࡞㈨⏘㉎ධ㸦large-scale asset purchases; LSAPs㸧ࡣࠊ2008 ᖺ௨๓ࡢ 2 ಸ௨ୖཬࡪࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡣࠊ ࠕ࣮ࣔࢤ࣮ࢪ㈚ ฟ࠾ࡼࡧఫᏯ㈚ᕷሙࢆ✚ᴟⓗࢧ࣏࣮ࢺࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡾࠖࠊ ࠕẸ㛫ಙ⏝ᕷሙࡢᨵၿࢆಁࡍࠖ ࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࡇࡢ࠸ࢃࡺࡿ㠀ఏ⤫ⓗ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࠊ㔞ⓗ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇㸦ಙ⏝⦆ᨻ⟇㸧ࡣຠᯝ 47 ᪥㖟ࡶ2010ᖺ10᭶ࡽᐇࡋࡓໟᣓⓗ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇࡛ࡣࠊ㈨⏘㈙ධࢀࡶᛕ㢌࠾࠸࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡋࡋࠊࡑࡢ⥲㢠ࡣ5 ⛬ᗘ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ6000൨ࢻࣝẚ㍑ࡍࢀࡤ㠀ᖖᑠࡉ࠸ࠋ 48 Bernanke (2009) ࡣࠊ⡿ᅜࡢࡇࡢ㠀ఏ⤫ⓗ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇ࡣࠕಙ⏝⦆ᨻ⟇࡛ࠖ࠶ࡾࠊ᪥ᮏࡢ㔞ⓗ⦆ࡣᐇ㉁ⓗ ពࡀ␗࡞ࡿࡇࢆᙉㄪࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢᨻ⟇ࡣ᪥ᮏࡢ㔞ⓗ⦆ᨻ⟇ࡀ༑ศ࡞ຠᯝࢆⓎࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸࠸࠺㐃㖟ࡢุ ᩿ࡼࡿࡶ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣࠊ᪥ᮏࡢ㔠⼥ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡀ㖟⾜୰ᚰ࡛࠶ࡿࡢᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡣᕷሙ୰ᚰࡢࢩࢫ ࢸ࣒ࡼࡿࡽ࡛࠶ࡿࡶ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 91 ࡀ࠶ࡗࡓࡢྰࠋࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࡣᐇド◊✲ಗࡓࡡࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࡀࠊࡑࡢ᳨ドࡣ࡞࠾⥅⥆ࡋ࡚ ࠸ࡿࠋࡇࡢᨻ⟇ࡢ≉ᚩࡣᮇ㛫ࡢ㛗࠸Ẹ㛫㈨⏘ࡢ౪⤥ࢆῶࡽࡋࠊᮇ㛫ࢮࣟࡢ㈨⏘౪⤥㸦㖟⾜‽ ഛ㸧ࢆቑࡸࡍࡇ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࠋࣜࢫࢡࡢ㧗࠸㛗ᮇ㈨⏘ࡢ౪⤥ࡀῶࡗࡓࡇࡼࡾࠊ㛗ᮇ㈨⏘ಖ ᭷㝶ࡍࡿࣜࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞࡀୗࡀࡾࠊࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࡑࡢᅇࡾࡶపୗࡋࡓࠋLSAPs ࡀຠᯝ ࢆⓎࡍࡿࢳࣕࣥࢿࣝࡣ⌮ㄽⓗࡣ㉎ධ㈨⏘ࡢࣜࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞ49ᙳ㡪ࡍࡿࡇ࡛࠶ࡿ ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀẸ㛫ಖ᭷ࡢドๆࢆ㉎ධࡍࢀࡤࠊࡑࡢドๆࡢᮇᚅ┈ࡣపୗࡍࡿࠋࡇ ࢀࡣࡘ࡚ࠊTobin (1958) ࡀ᫂ࡽࡋࡓࠊ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛࣭ࣜ࢜ࣂࣛࣥࢫຠᯝ㸦portfolio- balance effect㸧࡞ࡽ࡞࠸50ࠋ㛗ᮇമࡢᅇࡾࡣࠊࡑࡢ㈨⏘ࡢ‶ᮇࡲ࡛ࡢ▷ᮇ㔠㸦ࣜࢫ ࢡࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡞࠸㸧ࡢᖹᆒࣜࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞࢆྜィࡋࡓࡶࡢࡽᡂࡿࠋLSAPs ࡣᕷሙࡽ㛗 ᮇࡢࣜࢫࢡമๆࢆ㉎ධࡍࡿࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊᕷሙὶ㏻ࡍࡿ㛗ᮇ㈨⏘ࡢ㔞ࢆῶࡽࡍࡇຠᯝ ࡀ࠶ࡗࡓ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋ㛗ᮇࡢࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࡢ㔞ࡀῶᑡࡍࢀࡤࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࡀせồࡍࡿࣜࢫࢡࣉࣞ ࣑࣒ࡣపୗࡍࡿࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊLSAPs ࡣ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛࣭ࣜ࢜ࣂࣛࣥࢫຠᯝࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ࠊMBS ࡸ㈈ົ┬ドๆࡢࡼ࠺࡞┤᥋ FRB ࡢ㉎ධᑐ㇟࡞ࡗࡓമๆࡔࡅ࡛࡞ࡃࠊᴗമࠊᰴᘧ࡞ࡢ ࡢドๆࡢᅇࡾࡶࡁࡃᙳ㡪ࡋࡓࠋࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࠊከࡃࡢᡭࡗ࡚ࠊ㛗ᮇ㈨㔠ࡢࡾධ ࢀࢥࢫࢺࡣୗࡀࡾࠊ᪉࡛ࡣࡲࡓᐙィࡸᴗࡢಖ᭷ࡍࡿ㛗ᮇ㈨⏘ࡢ౯್ࢆ㧗ࡵࡓࠋࡇࢀࡽࡣ ⤒῭ࡗ࡚ࡁ࡞ࣉࣛࢫࡢᙳ㡪ࡀ࠶ࡗࡓ᥎ ࡛ࡁࡿ51ࠋ ࡇࡢⅬࡘ࠸࡚ࡢᐇド◊✲ࡣ࠸ࡃࡘ࠶ࡿࠋ࠼ࡤࠊJ.Gagnon et.all (2010, 2011) ࡣࡇࡢ ⪃࠼ࢆᨭᣢࡍࡿᐇド⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡓࠋᙼࡽࡣලయⓗࡘࡂࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࣔࢹࣝࢆ OLS ࡛᥎ᐃࡋ࡚࠸ ࡿࠋYt=Xtș㸩Etࠊࡇࡇ࡛ Y ࡣ 10 ᖺ≀മๆࡢᮇ㛫ࣉ࣑࣒࡛ࣞ࠶ࡾࠊX ࡣኻᴗ⋡ࢠࣕࢵࣉࠊ ࢥ CPI ኚ⋡ࠊணࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࠊ㔠☜ᐇᛶࠊࡑࡋ࡚ࡇࡢศᯒ࡛㔜せ࡞㛗ᮇമົࡢ౪⤥ 㔞࡛࠶ࡿࠋᶆᮏᮇ㛫ࡣ 1985 ᖺ 1 ᭶ࡽ 2008 ᖺ 6 ᭶ࡲ࡛࡛࠶ࡿࠋࡑࡢ᥎ᐃ⤖ᯝࡣձኻᴗ⋡ ࢠࣕࢵࣉࠊࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࠊࣥࣇࣞணࠊ࠾ࡼࡧ㔠Ᏻࡀ 1㸣࣏ࣥࢺୖ᪼ࡍࢀࡤࠊᮇ㛫ࣉ ࣑࣒ࣞࢆࡑࢀࡒࢀࠊ20ࠊ30ࠊ40ࠊࡑࡋ࡚ 100 ࣋ࢩࢫ࣭࣏ࣥࢺୖ᪼ࡉࡏࡿࠊղ㛗ᮇമ ົࡢ౪⤥ࡀ GDP ẚ࡛ 1㸣࣏ࣥࢺୖ᪼ࡍࢀࡤࠊ10 ᖺ≀ࡢᮇ㛫ࣉ࣑࣒ࣞࢆ 4.4 ࣋ࢩࢫ࣭ ࣏ࣥࢺୖ᪼ࡉࡏࡿࠋࡇࡢ⤖ᯝࡽࠊᙼࡽࡣ 2009 ᖺ Q4 FRB ࡀᐇࡋࡓ 1 7250 ൨ࢻ ࣝࡢമๆ㉎ධࡣࠊྡ┠ GDP ࡢࡰ 12㸣࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡣࣜࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞࢆ 52 ࣋ࢩࢫ࣏ ࣥࢺୗⴠࡉࡏࡓ㸦12㸣4.4㸻52㸧 ࠊᙇࡍࡿࠋ ࡶࡗࡶࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞㛗ᮇമࡢ㔞㉎ධࡼࡿࠊFRB ࡢ࣮࣋ࢫᣑࡀ⤒῭ࣉࣛࢫ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ ࡇၥࢆ࿊ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡓ࠼ࡤࠊGurdia and Woodford (2010) ࡣࠊ㔠ࡶࡍ࡛ ୗ㝈㐩ࡋࠊࡉࡽ࡞ࡿ㖟⾜㈚ฟࡀྍ⬟࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ≧ἣࡢୗ࡛ࡣࠊ࣐ࢿࢱ࣮ࣜ࣋ࢫࢆᣑ ᙇࡋ࡚ࡶࠊ⥲㟂せࢆቑࡸࡍຠᯝࡣᮇᚅ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ㄽࡌ࡚࠸ࡿࠋKuttner (2004)ࠊBernanke 49 ࣜࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞࡣࠊ㔠ኚືࠊಙ⏝ࣜࢫࢡࠊὶືᛶࣜࢫࢡ࡞ᑗ᮶ࡢ㈨⏘┈ࢆ☜ᐇࡍࡿせᅉࢆ࢝ࣂ࣮ࡍ ࡿࡓࡵ㏻ᖖࡢ┈ࣉࣛࢫࡉࢀࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 50 Tobinࢆᄏ▮ࡍࡿ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜⌮ㄽࡣ᭱㏆࡛ࡣࠊDSGEࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᒎ㛤ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡓ࠼ࡤࠊAnderes, Lopez, and Nelson (2004) ࢆཧ↷ࠋ 51 Mishkin (2011) 92 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 (2009) ࡶࡲࡓࠊ㔞ⓗ⦆ࡑࢀ⮬యࡀ᭷ຠ࡛࠶ࡿࡇᛕࢆ࿊ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋᙼࡽࡣࠊࣂࣛࣥࢫ ࢩ࣮ࢺࡢᣑᙇࡣ㈚ฟ⦆ࡢ⤖ᯝゎ㔘ࡉࢀࡿࡁ࡛࠶ࡾࠊ㔜せ࡞⤒㊰ࡣ㈨⏘㉎ධ࠾ࡼࡧὶື ᛶ౪⤥ࢆ㏻ࡌ࡚ᵝࠎ࡞᱁ࡅࡢ㈨⏘㛫ࡢ㔠ᕪࢆ⦰ᑠࡍࡿࡇ࡛࠶ࡿࠊᙉㄪࡋࡓࠋ Eggertsson and Woodford (2003, 2004)ࠊWoodford (2003) ࡣᮇᚅཬࡰࡍຠᯝࢆ㔜どࡋ ࡓࠋ2009 ᖺ 3 ᭶ FOMC ࡣࠕ␗ᖖప࠸ప㔠㸦exceptionally low㸧ࠖࢆࠕ࡞ࡾࡢᮇ㛫 ࢃࡓࡗ࡚㸦for an extended period㸧ࠖ⥔ᣢࡍࡿᐉゝࡋࡓࠋప㔠ࢆ࡞ࡾࡢᮇ㛫ࢃࡓ ࡗ࡚⥅⥆ࡍࢀࡤࠊ㛗ᮇ㔠ࢆୗࡆࠊࣥࣇࣞᮇᚅࢆ⏕ࡴࠊࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ᐇ㉁㔠ࢆୗࡆࡿ࠸ ࠺ࠊ࠸ࢃࡺࡿ㛫㍈ຠᯝ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ2012 ᖺ 1 ᭶ 25 ᪥㛤ദࡢ FOMC ࡣᐇୖࡢࢮࣟ㔠ᨻ⟇ ࢆࡉࡽᘏ㛗ࡋ࡚ 2014 ᖺᮎࡲ࡛⥅⥆ࡍࡿ᪉㔪ࢆỴࡵࡓ52ࠋࡇࢀࡶᕷሙ⌧ᅾࡢ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇ ࢆ㛗ᮇ⥆ࡅࡿ࠸࠺࣓ࢵࢭ࣮ࢪࢆᕷሙⓎಙࡍࡿࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ㛫㍈ຠᯝࢆ≺ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ ࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ53ࠋ ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㔞ⓗ⦆ᨻ⟇ࡢ᭷ຠᛶࢆࡵࡄࡿ㆟ㄽࡣከࡃ࡞ࡉࢀࠊᐇド◊✲ࡶᩘከ࠸ࡀ࠸ࡎࢀ ࡶࡲࡔㄝᚓⓗ࡞ࡗ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࡢࡀࠊ⌧≧࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ࡴࡍࡧ 1929 ᖺࡢࢽ࣮࣮ࣗࣚࢡᰴ౯ᭀⴠ➃ࢆⓎࡋࡓࠊ࠶ࡢୡ⏺ᜍៃࢆࡵࡄࡿ㆟ㄽࡀ⤊ᜥࢆぢࡏ ࡓࡢࡣẚ㍑ⓗ᭱㏆࡛࠶ࡿࠋ1963 ᖺࣇ࣮ࣜࢻ࣐ࣥࢩ࣮ࣗ࢜ࢶࡀ࣓ࠗࣜ࢝ྜ⾗ᅜࡢ㈌ᖯྐ࠘ ࡛࣐ࢿ࣮ࢧࣉࣛࡢῶᑡࡀ᭱ࡢཎᅉ࡛࠶ࡿ᫂ࡽࡋࡓᚋࡶάⓎ࡞㆟ㄽࡀ⥆࠸ࡓࠋࡑࡢ ព࡛ࡶࡇࡢ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡘ࠸࡚ࡢ㆟ㄽࠊ◊✲ࡣᚋ㐍ࡴ࡛࠶ࢁ࠺ࠋ ࡋࡋࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡶయࡢࡇࡣ᫂ࡽ࡞ࡗࡓࡼ࠺ᛮࢃࢀࡿࠋ ṧࡉࢀࡓㄢ㢟ࢆ࠸ࡃࡘ♧ࡋ࡚ᮏ✏ࢆ⤊࠼ࡿࡇࡋࡼ࠺ࠋᅇࡢ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡀ ♧ࡋࡓࡶࡢࡶࠊࡸࡣࡾࠕ㔠⼥⦆ࠖࠕつไ⦆ࠖࡀྠ㉳ࡁࡿࣂࣈࣝࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࠊࡑ ࡋ࡚ࠊࣂࣈࣝࡀᔂቯࡋࡓᚋࡣࠊᨻᗓ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡢᙺࡀ㠀ᖖ㔜せ࡛࠶ࡿ࠸࠺ࡶࡢ࡛࠶ ࡗࡓࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊᜍៃࠊḢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࠊ᪥ᮏࡢࣂࣈࣝࡑࡢᚋࠊྠࡌ≧ἣ࡛࠶ࡿゝ࠼ࡿࠋ ࡋࡓࡀࡗ࡚ࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢᨻ⟇ᑐᛂࡀᅇࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡘ࠸࡚ࡶᩍカࡋ࡚ᙺ❧ࡘࡣࡎ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢᨻᗓࠊ㔠⼥ᙜᒁࡶᙜ↛ࡢࡇ࡞ࡀࡽࠊࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢᩍカࢆ⏕ࡑ࠺ࡋ ࡓࡇࡣࡍ࡛ぢࡓ࠾ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿࠋࣂࣈࣝᔂቯᚋࡢ㔠⼥⦆࠸࠺ࡇ࡛ゝ࠼ࡤࠊᅇࡢ㔠 ⼥⦆ࡣ᪥ᮏࡢ㔞ⓗ⦆ࡣ␗࡞ࡾࠊ㔠⼥㈨⏘ࡢ㈙࠸ᨭ࠼࠶ࡗࡓࡇࡀࡁ࡞≉ᚩ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ FRB ࡣᙜึࡽࠊὶືᛶᑐ⟇㸦ࣜࢡࢹࢸᑐ⟇㸧࡛ࡣ༑ศぢ࡚ࠊᨭᡶ࠸⬟ຊᑐ⟇㸦ࢯ ࣝ࣋ࣥࢩ࣮ᑐ⟇㸧ࢆᐇࡋࡓࡀࠊࡇࢀࡣࠊ᫂ࡽ᪥ᮏࡢἣᑐ⟇ࡽࡢᩍカࢆ⏕ࡋ࡚࠸ 52 Press Release, Federal Reserve Bank, January 25, 2012. ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ࡶࠊ㛫㍈ຠᯝࢆᛕ㢌ࠊࠕࢥCPI ࡢ๓ᖺẚୖ᪼⋡ࡀᏳᐃⓗࢮ࣭ࣟࣃ࣮ࢭࣥࢺ௨ୖ࡞ࡿࡲ࡛ࠖ㔞ⓗ ⦆ᨻ⟇ࢆ⥅⥆ࡍࡿࡢᨻ⟇ࢥ࣑ࢵࢺ࣓ࣥࢺࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࠋ 53 2012ᖺࡼࡾFOMCࡣFF࣮ࣞࢺࡢㄏᑟ┠ᶆࡘ࠸࡚ࡢணࢆึࡵ࡚බ⾲ࡍࡿࡇࢆỴࡵࡓࡀࠊࡇࢀࡶᕷሙ☜࡞ ࣓ࢵࢭ࣮ࢪࢆ㏦ࡾࠊ㛫㍈ຠᯝࢆ㧗ࡵࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࠋMinutes of the Federal Open Market Commit teeࠊDecember 13ࠊ2011ࠋ㬼㣫㸦2006㸧ࡣࢃࡀᅜࡢ㔞ⓗ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇ࡢ᭷ຠᛶ㛵ࡍࡿᐇド◊✲ࢆࢧ࣮࣋ࡋࠊ ࣮ࣝࢻ࣮࢝ࣈࢆᢲࡋୗࡆࡿ࠸࠺ព࡛ࠊ㛫㍈ຠᯝࡀ࠶ࡗࡓࡍࡿ◊✲ࢆ࠸ࡃࡘ⤂ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 93 ࡿࡼ࠺ᛮࢃࢀࡿࠋA. Shleifer and R. Vishny (2010)ࡢゝⴥࢆࡾࢀࡤࠊࣇࢭ࣮ࣝࡢ ᮇ㔠⼥㈨⏘ࢆ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀ㈙࠸ྲྀࡿࡇࡣࠊ◚⥢࢚ࣛࣥࡢ㣕⾜ᶵࢆ㈙࠺ࡇࡣពࡀ ␗࡞ࡿࠋ ࠕ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡣ⤒῭ᑐࡍࡿᙳ㡪ᗘ࠸࠺Ⅼ࡛୰ྂᕷሙࡣ࠸␗࡞ࡿࠋ㖟⾜ࡢࣂࣛ ࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡀᅇࡍࢀࡤࠊ㈚ࢳࣕࣥࢿࣝࡀᅇࡍࡿࠋ࢚ࣛࣥࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡀᅇ ࡋ࡚ࡶࡑ࠺ࡣ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋᨻᗓࡀ࢚ࣛࣥࡢᡤ᭷⪅࡞ࡗ࡚ࡶࠊ㣕⾜ᶵࢆ࠸ຠ⋡ⓗࣜ ࣮ࢫࡍࡿࠊࡑࡢ▱㆑ࡣࡃ࡞࠸ࠋࡇࢀᑐࡋ࡚ࠊFRB ࡀࣞࣔࣥࢆ㑊ࡅẚ㍑ⓗᏳ࡞㈨⏘ࢆ ㈙࠸ࢀࡤࠊࡑࡢドๆࡽᏳᐃࡋࡓᡤᚓࢆᚓࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ54ࠋࠖࡲࡓࠊࡑࡢࡇࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ 㔠⼥ᕷሙ┤᥋࣐ࢿ࣮ࡀᢞධࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡞ࡾࠊ࣐ࢿ࣮ࢫࢺࢵࢡࡣቑຍࡍࡿࠋࢃࡀᅜࡢࡼ࠺ ࠊ㖟⾜ࡢ᪥㖟㡸ࡅ㔠ࢆ┠ᶆࡋ࡚࠸ࡓࡢ࡛ࡣࠊ㖟⾜ࡢ㈚ฟࡋࡀቑ࠼࡞࠸㝈ࡾࠊ࣐ࢿ࣮ࢧࣉ ࣛࡣቑຍࡋ࡞࠸ࠋ࣐ࢿ࣮ࢧࣉࣛࡀቑ࠼࡞࠸ᬒẼࡣⰋࡃ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸55ࠋࡓࡔࠊ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡀ ࣜࢫࢡ㈨⏘ࢆ㉎ධࡍࡿࡇࡀᯝࡓࡋ࡚୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡢᏲഛ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡿࡢ࠺࠸࠺ၥ㢟ࡀṧ ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ➨ࡢၥ㢟ࡣ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ⫧ࢆ࠺ࡍࡿ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ㔠⼥ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢᐻ༨ࡣᚋࡶ㐍ࡴ ᛮࢃࢀࡿࠋࡇࢀࡣࠊつไࡢ࣮ࣅࢺࣛࢪࡢၥ㢟࡛ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡍ࡛㏙ࡓࡼ࠺ࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵 ࡀࡁࡃ࡞ࢀࡤࠊᨻᗓࡋ࡚ࡣ too big to fail ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ too interconnected to fail ᨻ⟇ࢆࡽ ࡊࡿࢆᚓ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡿࠋࡑࡢព࡛࢜ࣂ࣐⤫㡿ࡀࢻࢵࢻ࣭ࣇࣛࣥࢡἲࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ࣮࣮࣎ࣝ࢝ࣝ ࣝࢆ㐺⏝ࡋࠊࣜࢫࢡࡢ㧗࠸ᢞ㈨㖟⾜ᴗົࢆỴ῭ᴗົ୰ᚰࡢၟᴗ㒊㛛ࡽษࡾ㞳ࡋࠊ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵 ࡀ㐣ᗘࡁࡃ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࡼ࠺┘どࢆᙉࡍࡿ࠸ࡓࡗࡓⅬࡣホ౯࡛ࡁࠊࡑࡢᡂᯝᮇᚅࡀ ࡿࠋ ᭱ᚋࡣࠊ࠸ࢃࡺࡿฟཱྀၥ㢟࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࠶ࡲࡾ⫧ࡋࡓ㐃㑥‽ഛࡢ㈨⏘ࢆ࠸ṇᖖࡶ ࡍࡀࠊၥࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ⫧ࡋࡓ㈨⏘ࡣࠊᑗ᮶ࡢࣥࣇࣞࠊࣂࣈࣝ⇞ࡢ✀࡞ࡿࠋ ࠸ࡗ࡚ࡍ࡛ᅗ⾲ 18 ࡛ぢࡓࡼ࠺ࠊ⌧ᅾಖ᭷ࡍࡿ㈨⏘ࡢከࡃࡣࠊMBS ࠾ࡼࡧ㛗ᮇᅜമ࡛ ࠶ࡿࠋࡇࢀࡽࢆᕷ୰༷ࡍࢀࡤࠊࡲࡔ༑ศᅇࡋ࡚࠸࡞࠸ఫᏯമᶒᕷሙࡣࡧΰࡍࡿ ࡶࡋࢀ࡞࠸ࠊࡲࡓ㛗ᮇമࡢ༷ࡣ㛗ᮇ㔠ࢆୖ᪼ࡉࡏࠊᬒẼᅇࡢ㊊ࢆᘬࡗᙇࡿࡶࡋࢀ࡞ ࠸ࠋ1937-38 ᖺᜍៃࡣ⤊ᜥࡋࡓ᪩ྜⅬࡋࡓࠊFRB ࡣᡤせ‽ഛ⋡ࡢᘬࡁୖࡆࡼࡗ࡚ࠊ ㉸㐣‽ഛࢆ྾ࡋࣥࣇࣞࡢ✀ࢆ㝖ཤࡋࡼ࠺ࡋࡓࠋࡑࢀࡀࡧ࣓ࣜ࢝⤒῭ࢆᝏࡉࡏࡓ ࠸࠺ඛࡀ࠶ࡿࠋฟཱྀࡣៅ㔜࡛࠶ࡽࡡࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋࡇࡇ࡛ࡣࠊThomas (2011) ࡢࢹ ࡀཧ⪃࡞ࡿࠋ⌧ᅾ࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ㔠⼥ᨻ⟇ࡣ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆᣦᶆࡋ࡚ᐇࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࠋFF ࣮ࣞ ࢺࢆୖ᪼ࡉࡏࡿࡣࠊ᪥ࡢࡼ࠺㖟⾜ࡢ‽ഛ㟂せࡀ㔠ᑐࡋ࡚ࡁࢃࡵ࡚ᙎຊⓗ࡞ࡗ࡚ ࠸ࡿࡣࠊ㔞ࡢ㈨⏘༷ࡀ࡞ࡉࢀࡡࡤ࡞ࡽ࡞࠸ࠋᖾ࠸ࠊ࣓࡛ࣜ࢝ࡣẸ㛫㖟⾜ࡀ㐃㑥‽ 54 A. Shleifer and R. Vishny (2010) 55 ࢃࡀᅜ࡛ࡣM2ቑຍ⋡ࡣᖺ⋡2.5㸣๓ᚋ␃ࡲࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋࡇࢀᑐࡋ࡚ࠊ࣓࡛ࣜ࢝ࡣ2010ᖺ௨㝆ࠊ10㸣ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ㠀 ᖖ㧗࠸ቑຍ⋡ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ᪥ࠊ࣐ࢿ࣮ࢧࣉࣛࢆ㍍どࡍࡿഴྥ࠶ࡿࡀࠊ࣐ࢿ࣮ࢧࣉࣛࢆఫᏯࣂࣈࣝ㛵㐃 ࡅࡿ◊✲ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋࡓ࠼ࡤࠊWen (2010) ࢆཧ↷ࠋ 94 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 ഛ㡸ࡅࡿᙜᗙ㡸㔠ࡣ 2008 ᖺ 10 ᭶ 9 ᪥ࡽࡀㄆࡵࡽࢀࡿࡇ࡞ࡗࡓ56ࠋࡋࡓࡀࡗ ࡚ࠊࡇࡢ㔠ࢆୖࡆࢀࡤࠊ࠾ࡢࡎ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࡶୖ᪼ࡍࡿࠋᙜᗙ㡸㔠㔠ࡼࡾࡶ FF ࣮ࣞࢺ ࡀపࡅࢀࡤࠊࡢ㖟⾜ࡶ FF ᕷሙࡼࡾ㈨㔠ࢆࡾ࡚ࠊ‽ഛ㡸㔠ࡋ࡚ FRB ࡢཱྀᗙ✚ࡴࡼ࠺ ࡞ࡿࡽࡔࠋFF ࣮ࣞࢺࡣᙜᗙ㡸㔠㔠ᘬࡗᙇࡾୖࡆࡽࢀࡿࡼ࠺ୖ᪼ࡍࡿࠋ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩ Allen, Frederick Lewis (1931), Only Yesterday: an Informal history of the Nineteen Twenties, Harper & Brothers Publishers㸦⸨ஂ࣑ࢿヂ࣮࣭࢚ࠗ࢜ࣥࣜࢫࢱࢹ㸸1920 ᖺ௦࣓ࣜ࢝࠘⟃ᦶ᭩ᡣࠊ1993 ᖺ㸧 Anderes, Lopez, and Nelson (2004),” Tobin’s Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36, no.5, August, 665-90. Bagehot, Walter (1873). Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market. London: King. Reprint, Gloucester, U.K.: Dodo Press, 2006. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Consultative Document: countercyclical capital buffer proposal, Bank for International Settlements, July. 2010. Bernanke, Ben S., and Alan Blinder, 1988, Credit, money, and aggregate demand, American Economic Review 78, 435-39. Bernanke, Ben S., and Alan Blinder, 1992, The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission, American Economic Review 82, 901-21. Bernanke, Ben S., and Mark Gertler (2001), “Should Central Banks Respond to Movement in Asset Prices? ” American Economic Review 91, 2, 253-257. Bernanke, Ben S.(2002), Deflation: Making Sure “It” doesn’t Happen Here, Before the National Economists Club, Washington,D.C. November 21. http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm (2004a) “On Milton Friedman’s Ninetieth Birthday,”Speech given at the Conference to Honor Milton Friedman at the University of Chicago, November 8, http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021108/default.htm. (2004b) “The Great Moderation,” At the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, D.C., February 20. http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040220/default.htm (2008) “Liquidity Provision by the Federal Reserve”At the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference, Sea Island, Georgia (via satellite), 56 㐃㑥‽ഛࡣࡡ࡚ࡼࡾ㉸㐣‽ഛࡍࡿチྍࢆ㆟ồࡵ࡚࠸ࡓࠋࡋࡋࠊ㐃㖟ࡢ┈ࡣᇶᮏⓗࡍ࡚ᅜᐙ ධ࡞ࡿࡢ࡛ࠊᅜᐙධࡢῶᑡ࡞ࡿࠊࡣ㆟ࡣᑐࡋ࡚ࡁࡓࠋࡕ࡞ࡳࠊ᪥ᮏ࡛ࡶ2008ᖺ11᭶16᪥ࡼࡾ㉸㐣 ‽ഛࢆᐇࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡇࢀࡀࢥ࣮ࣝᕷሙࡢୗ㝈࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 95 May 13. (2009) “Reflections on a Year of Crisis,” at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Annual Economic Symposium, August.21. http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090821a.htm (2010a), Economic Policy: Lessons from history At the 43rd Annual Alexander Hamilton Awards Dinner, Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, Washington, D.C. April 8, 2010 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100408a.htm (2010b), Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble At the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, Atlanta, Georgia, January 3, 2010 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100103a.pdf Bhide, Amar (2011) “An Accident Waiting to Happen: Securities Regulation and Financial Deregulation” in Jeffrey Friedman (2011) pp.69-106. Borio Claudio (2003) Towards a macroprudential framework for financial supervision and regulation? BIS Working Papers, Monetary and Economic Department No 128 February Caballero, R.J. and A. Krishnamurthy (2009) “Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility,” American Economic Review, vol.9,No.2, May, 584-588. Caballero, Ricardo J., and Alp Simsek (2010) “Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity,”MIT Department of Economics, Working Paper, No.09-28. Cecchetti, S.G.(2009) “Crisis and Responses: The Federal Reserve in the Early Stages of the Financial Crisis,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.23, No.1, Winter, 51-75. Diamond, Douglas W. and Raghuram G. Rajan (2010) “Fear of Fire Sales and the Credit Freeze,” NBER Working Paper 14925. 㐲⸨ᖾᙪ㸦1999㸧 ࠕドๆࡢṔྐⓗᒎ㛤⤒῭ⓗព⩏̿⡿ᅜࢆ୰ᚰ̿ࠖ ࠗࣇࢼࣥࢩ࣭ࣕࣝ ࣞࣅ࣮ࣗ࠘ⶶ┬㈈ᨻ㔠⼥◊✲ᡤࠊJuneࠋ Fisher, Irving (1933) “The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depression,” Econometrica 1 (Reprinted 2010 with his biography by Michael Schemmann, ThaiSunset Publications ) Friedman, Jaffrey (2011), What caused the Financial Crisis, University of Pennsylvania Press. ⚟⩏㧗㸦2011㸧 ࠕබṇ౯್ィࡢ⤒῭ⓗᖐ⤖ࠖ ࠗ㔠⼥◊✲࠘➨ 30 ᕳ➨ 3 ྕࠊ8 ᭶ࠊ19-71. Gjerstad, Steven and Vernon L. Smith㸦2011㸧 ͆Monetary Policy, Credit Extensionࠊand Housing Bubbles, 2008 and 1929,͇ in Jeffrey Friedman (2011) pp.107-138. Goodhart, Charles A. E. and Dimitrios P. Tsomocos (2011) The Role of Default in 96 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 Macroeconomics, September, IMES Discussion Paper Series 2011-E-23 㸦ࢢࢵࢻࣁ࣮ࢺࢺ࢘ࢯࣔࢥࢫ㸦2011㸧 ࠕ࣐ࢡࣟ⤒῭Ꮫ࠾ࡅࡿࢹࣇ࢛ࣝࢺࡢᙺࠖ ࠗ㔠 ⼥◊✲࠘➨ 30 ᕳ➨ 4 ྕࠊ10 ᭶ࠊ55-82.㸧 Greenspan, Alan (1998) The Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate July 21 http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/1998/july/testimony.htm (2002) Rethinking Stabilization Policy, Opening Speech symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 29 ̽ 31. (2004) Federal Reserve Board's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate July 20, 2004 http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/HH/2004/July/testimony.htm (2005a) Federal Reserve Board's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate February 16, 2005 http://www.federalreserve.gov/Boarddocs/hh/2005/february/testimony.htm (2005b) The economic outlook, Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, June 9. http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2005/200506092/default.htm (2007) The Age of Turbulence, Adventures in a new world, The Penguin Press New York㸦ᒣᒸὒ୍࣭㧗㐲⿱ᏊヂࠗἼࡢ௦㸸ୡ⏺⤒῭ࡢࡺࡃ࠼ୖୗ࠘᪥ᮏ⤒῭᪂ ⪺♫㸧 Gagnon, Joseph, M. Raskin, J.Remache, and B. Sack (2010), Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve: Did They Work? Federal Reserve Bank Staff Report No. 441, March, 2. Gagnon, Joseph, M. Raskin, J.Remache, and B. sack (2011), Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve: Did They Work?, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, May,41-59. He, Zhigou, In Gu Kang, and Arvind Krishnamurthy (2010) “Balance Sheet Adjustments in the 2008 Crisis,” IMF Economic Review, 58-1,118-56. Holmstrom, Bengt, and Jean Titole (1998) “Private and Public Supply of Liquidity,” Journal of Political Economy, 106-1,1-40. Jablecki, Juliusz and Mateusz Machaj (2011) A Regulated Meltdown: The Basel Rules and Banks’ Leverage, in Jeffrey Friedman (2011) pp.200-227. ᭹㒊ⱱᖾ㸦2011㸧 ࠗ᪥ᮏࡢኻᩋࢆᚋ㏣࠸ࡍࡿ࣓ࣜ࢝࠘㹌㹒㹒ฟ∧ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 97 Jarsulic, Marc (2010), Anatomy of a Financial Crisis: A Real Estate Bubble, Runaway Credit Markets, and Regulatory Failure, Palgrave Macmillan. Kashap, K.Anil, and Jeremey C. Stein (2000) “What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the transmission of Monetary Policy?” American Economic Review 90-3, 4077-28. Meltzer, Allan H.(2009) “Regulatory Reform and the Federal Reserve.” Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Monetary Policy, House Committee on Financial Services, July 9. http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/meltzer_testimony.pdf. Mishkin, Frederic S.(2011) Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 9th ed. The Addison-Wesley Series in Economics. Mishkin, Frederic S. (2011) “Over the Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25-1,Winter, 49-70. ᐑᕝ㔜⩏㸦1992㸧 ࠕ⡿ᅜࡢ S&L ၥ㢟ࡑࡢᚋࡢᒎ㛤ࡘ࠸࡚ࠖ ࠗி㒔ᏛᅬᏛ⤒ႠᏛ㒊ㄽ㞟࠘ ➨㸰ᕳ➨ 2 ྕࠊ12 ᭶ࠊpp.77-110ࠋ ⩝ ⓒྜ㸦2011㸧ࠕ㔠⼥༴ᶵᚋࡢつไ┘╩ᨻ⟇ࠖᒾඞேࠊ℩ྂ⨾႐ࠊ⩝ⓒྜ ⦅ࠗ㔠⼥༴ ᶵ࣐ࢡࣟ⤒῭࠘ᮾிᏛฟ∧ࠊᡤࠋ Paulson, Hank (2010), ON THE BRINK: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System, Business Plus.㸦࣮࣭࣏࣮࣊ࣥࣜࣝࢯࣥࠊ᭷㈡⿱Ꮚヂ࣏࣮ࠗ ࣝࢯࣥ ᅇ㢳㘓࠘᪥ᮏ⤒῭᪂⪺♫ࠊ2010 ᖺ㸧 Reinhart, Vincent (2011), “A Year of Living Danerously: The Management of the Financial Crisis in 2008,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25-1,Winter, 71-90. ΎỈၨ㸦2011㸧 ࠕࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ㔠⼥༴ᶵᚋࡢᅜ㝿ⓗ㔠⼥つไࠖ ࠗᏳᐃⓗ࡞⤒῭ᡂ㛗ࡢࡓࡵࡢࣉ ࣮ࣝࢹࣥࢫᨻ⟇ࡢ࠶ࡾ᪉࠘㔠⼥ㄪᰝ◊✲ࠊ7 ᭶ࠋ ⓑሯ㔜ࠕ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡢᨻ⟇㐠Ⴀ࠾ࡅࡿ࣐ࢡࣟࣉ࣮ࣝࢹࣥࢫࡢどⅬࠖ ࠗ㔠⼥◊✲࠘➨ 30 ᕳ➨ 3 ྕࠊ8 ᭶ࠊ167-197. ⓑሯ㔜㸦2009㸧 ࠕࢃࡀᅜࡢ㔞ⓗ⦆ᨻ⟇ࡢ⤒㦂:୰ኸ㖟⾜ࣂࣛࣥࢫࢩ࣮ࢺࡢつᶍᵓᡂࢆᕠ ࡿ᳨ドࠖ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ Discussion Paper No. 2009-J-22 ⓑᯂᨻࠕ⡿ᅜࡢ㔠⼥つไᨵ㠉ἲࡢᙳ㡪㸸㈨⏘㐠⏝ࡢ♧၀ࠖࢽࢵࢭᇶ♏◊✲ᡤ≉ู࣏࣮ࣞ ࢺ2 Obstfeld, Maurice and Kenneth Rogoff㸦2001㸧͆Perspectives on OECD capital Market Integration: Implications for U.S. Current account Adjustment͇ in Global Economic Integration : Opportunities and Challenges, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, March, 169-208. Rolnick, Arthur J.㸦2004㸧 ͆Interview with Ben Bernanke,͇ The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, June. 98 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=3326. Roubini, Nouriel and Stephen Mihm (2010) Crisis Economics㸸A Crash Course in the Future of Finance, The Penguin Press 㸦ᒣᒸὒ୍࣭ᕝ▱Ꮚヂࠗ࠸࡞ࡿᏳᐃ㸸㔠 ⼥༴ᶵࡣഅ↛࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࠊᚲ↛࡛࠶ࡿ࠘ࢲࣖࣔࣥࢻ♫ࠊ2010 ᖺ㸧 Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert W. Vishny (1997) “The Limits of Arbitrage,” Journal of Finance, 52-1, 35-55. Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert W. Vishny (2010) “Asset Fire Sales and Credit Easing,” American Economic Review, 100-2, 46-50. Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert W. Vishny (2011) “Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25-1,Winter, 29-48. Stein, Jeremy C.(2011) Monetary Policy as Financial –Stability Regulation, Draft, May . Taylor, John B.(2008) The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong, Keynote Speech, Bank of Canada, November. Taylor, John B.(2011) “Monetary Policy, Economic Policy and the Financial Crisis,” in Jeffrey Friedman (2011) pp.150-171. Thomas, Lloyd B.(2011) The Financial Crisis and Federal Reserve Policy, Palgrave, Macmillan. Tobin, J.(1958) “Liquidity Preference as Behavior towards Risk,”Review of Econmic Studies 25,no.2,February,65-86. Tobin, J.(1969) “A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory,”Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 1,no.1 ,February, 15-29. Reinhart, Carmen and Kenneth. Rogoff (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial folly, Princeton University Press.㸦ᮧ❶Ꮚヂࠗᅜᐙࡣ◚⥢ࡍࡿ㸸㔠⼥༴ᶵ ࡢ 800 ᖺ࠘᪥⤒㹀㹎♫ࠊ2011 ᖺ㸧 㬼㣫༤ྐ㸦2006㸧ࠕ㔞ⓗ㔠⼥⦆ᨻ⟇ࡢຠᯝ㸸ᐇド◊✲ࡢࢧ࣮࣋ࠖ᪥㖟࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣮࣌ࣃ࣮ No.06-J-14. Warnock, Francis E. and Warnock, Veronica Cacdac (2005), International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 840, September. Ώ㒊⪃ࠗࢲࣈࣝࢡࣛࢵࢩࣗ࠘᪥ᮏ⤒῭᪂⪺♫ࠊ2009 ᖺ Wheelock, David C.(2010), “Lessons Learned? Comparing the Federal Reserve’s Responses to the Crisis of 1929-1933 and 2007-2009,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louise Review, March/April, 89-107. Wen, Yi (2010) “Money Supply, Credit Expansion, and Housing Price Inflation,” Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March. Wheelock, David C. (2010) “Lessons Learned? Comparing the Federal Reserve’s ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 99 Responses to the Crises of 1929-1933 and 2007-2009,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louse Review, March/April 89-108. ⿵ ㄽ ᮏ✏ࡢ⌮ゎࢆຓࡅࡿࡓࡵࠊ2007 ᖺࡢఫᏯ౯᱁ୗⴠᚋࡢ⤒῭≧ἣᨻᗓࠊFRB ࡢᑐᛂࢆ ⣔ิ࡛㎺ࡿ57ࠋ 2006 ᖺ ఫᏯᕷሙࡢ≧ἣࡀኚࡢࡋࢆぢࡏࠊ࣮ࣟࣥࡢ⣡⋡ࡸᕪࡋᢲࡉ࠼ࡀ ቑຍࡍࡿࠋ 2007 ᖺ 2 ᭶ 27 ᪥ The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation㸦ࣇ࣮ࣞࢹ࣐ࢵࢡ㸸 Freddie Mac㸧ࡀࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛドๆ࠾ࡼࡧࡑࡢ㛵㐃ࡢドๆࢆᚋ㉎ධࡋ ࡞࠸ࡇࢆᐉゝࠋ 4᭶2᪥ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒࣮ࣛࣟࣥࡢᡭ㈚♫ࠊࢽ࣮ࣗࢭࣥࢳ࣮࣭ࣗࣜࣇࢼ ࣥࢩࣕࣝ♫ࡀಽ⏘ࠋ 6᭶1᪥ ᱁ࡅ♫ࠊS&P ࠾ࡼࡧ࣒࣮ࢹ࣮ࢬࡀࡶࠊࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㛵㐃ド ๆ 100 ௨ୖࡘ࠸࡚᱁ࡅࡢᘬୗࡆࢆỴᐃࠋ 6 ᭶ 25 ᪥ FOMC ࡣ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࡢ┠ᶆ್ࢆ 5.25㸣ᤣ࠼⨨ࡃⓎ⾲ࠋ 7 ᭶ 24 ᪥ SEC ࡀࠊ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻ࣭ࣇࢼࣥࢩࣕࣝࡀ༴ᶵⓗ࡞≧ἣ࠶ࡿ Ⓨ⾲ࠋ 7 ᭶ 31 ᪥ ࣮࣭࣋ࢫࢱࣥࢬࡀࡑࡢചୗࡢ 2 ࡘࡢ࣊ࢵࢪࣇࣥࢻࢆ◚⏘ࡉࡏࡓ Ⓨ⾲ࠋ 8᭶6᪥ ࣓ࣜ࢝ఫᏯ࣮ࣔࢤࢵࢪᢞ㈨♫ࡀಽ⏘ࠋ 8᭶7᪥ FOMC ࡣ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 5.25㸣⥔ᣢࡍࡿⓎ⾲ࠋ 8᭶9᪥ ࣇࣛࣥࢫ᭱ࡢ㖟⾜ࠊBNP ࣃࣜࣂ 3 ࡘࡢᢞ㈨ࣇࣥࢻࡢゎ⣙ࢆṆ 㸦ࣃ ࣜࣂࢩࣙࢵࢡ㸧 ࠋ 8 ᭶ 16 ᪥ ᱁ࡅ♫ࣇࢵࢳࡀ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻ࣭ࣇࢼࣥࢩࣕࣝࢆ BBB+ ࡲ࡛ୗࡆࡿࠋ 8 ᭶ 17 ᪥ FOMC ࡣ㔠⼥ᕷሙ࡛ࣜࢫࢡࡀ㧗ࡲࡾࡘࡘ࠶ࡿ࠸࠺ㄆ㆑ࢆⓎ⾲ࠋ 9 ᭶ 14 ᪥ ࣥࢢࣛࣥࢻ㖟⾜ࡀ 5 ࡢఫᏯ㈚♫ࠊࣀ࣮ࢨ࣭ࣥࣟࢵࢡ⥭ᛴ⼥ ㈨ࠋ 9 ᭶ 18 ᪥ FOMC ࡣ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 50 ࣋ࢩࢫ࣏ࣥࢺୗࡆ࡚ࠊ4.75㸣ࠋ 10 ᭶ 31 ᪥ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 4.50㸣ࡲ࡛ୗࡆࡿࠋ 12 ᭶ 12 ᪥ FRB ࡣẸ㛫㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ⼥㈨ࡋ࡚ࢱ࣮࣒ධᮐไᗘ㸦Term Auction Facility: TAF㸧ࢆタ❧ࠊࡉࡽࠊḢᕞ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࢫࢫᅜ❧㖟⾜㏻ ㈌ࡢࢫ࣡ࢵࣉࣛࣥࢆ⥾⤖ࠋ 57 㔠⼥༴ᶵࡢᒎ㛤࠾ࡼࡧᨻᗓࠊ㐃㖟ࡢᑐᛂࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࠊࡋ࡚ࢭࣥࢺࣝࢫ㐃㑥‽ഛ㖟⾜ࡢ࣮࣒࣮࣍࣌ࢪࠊ௨ୗࡢ ࢧࢺࡼࡿࠋhttp://timeline.stlouisfed.org/index.cfm?p=home 100 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 2008 ᖺ 1 ᭶ 11 ᪥ ࣂࣥࢡ࣭࢜ࣈ࣭࣓ࣜ࢝ࡀ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻ࣭ࣇࢼࣥࢩࣕࣝࢆ 400 ൨ࢻ࡛ࣝ㈙ࠋ 1 ᭶ 18 ᪥ ᱁ࡅ♫ࡀ NY ᮏᗑࢆ࠾ࡃ㔠⼥ᣢࡕᰴ♫ࠊ࣒ࣂࢵࢡࣇࢼ ࣥࢩ࣭ࣕࣝࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ᱁ࡅࢆୗࡆࠊࢡࣞࢹࢵࢺ࢛࢘ࢵࢳࡢᑐ㇟ࠋ 1 ᭶ 22 ᪥ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 3.5㸣ࠋ 1 ᭶ 30 ᪥ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 3㸣ࠋ 2 ᭶ 13 ᪥ ࣈࢵࢩࣗ⤫㡿ࡀ⤒῭ಁ㐍ἲ㸦Economic Stimulus Act of 2008㸧⨫ ྡࠋ 2 ᭶ 17 ᪥ ࣀ࣮ࢨࣥࣟࢵࢡࡀᅜ᭷ࡉࢀࡿࠋ 3 ᭶ 16 ᪥ FOMC ࡀ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ㈚ฟࢆᣑࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊࣉ࣐࣮࣭ࣛࣜࢹ࣮ ࣮ࣛྥࡅ㈨㔠౪⤥ไᗘ㸦Primary Dealer Credit Facility: PDCF㸧ࢆタ ❧ࠋ 3 ᭶ 18 ᪥ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 2.25㸣ࡲ࡛ୗࡆࡿࠋ 3 ᭶ 24 ᪥ JP ࣔࣝ࢞ࣥࢳ࢙ࢫࡢ࣋ࢫࢱࣥࢬ㈙ࡢࡓࡵࠊ㹄㹐㹀ࡢ≉ู⼥㈨ ࡀỴᐃࠋ 4 ᭶ 30 ᪥ FFF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 2.0㸣ࠋ 6᭶5᪥ ࣂࣥࢡ࣭࢜ࣈ࣭࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ࢝ࣥࢺࣜ࣡ࢻࡢ㈙ࡀㄆྍࡉࢀࡿࠋ 6᭶5᪥ S&P ࡣࣔࣀࣛࣥࡢ AMBAC ࠾ࡼࡧ MBIA ࡢ᱁ࡅࢆ AAA ࡽ AA ୗࡆࡿࠋ 7 ᭶ 11 ᪥ ㈓ᶵ㛵┘╩ᒁࡀࣥࢹ࣐ࢵࢡ㖟⾜ࢆ㛢㙐ࠋ 7 ᭶ 13 ᪥ 㐃㑥‽ഛ⌮ࡀ NY 㐃㖟ᑐࡋ࡚ࠊࣇࢽ࣓ࣇࣞࢹࣜࢵࢡ࣐ࢵ ࢡ⥭ᛴែࡀ⏕ࡌࡓሙྜࠊ⼥㈨ࡍࡿࡇࢆㄆࡵࡿࠋ㈈ົ┬ࡶࡇࢀࡽ ୧ᶵ㛵㈨㔠ࡢᚲせࡀ⏕ࡌࡓሙྜࠊࡑࡢᰴᘧࢆ㉎ධࡍࡿ⏝ពࡀ࠶ࡿ බ⾲ࠋ 7 ᭶ 15 ᪥ SEC ࡀ୧㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢドๆࡢ✵ࡾࢆ୍⚗Ṇࠋ 9᭶7᪥ 㐃㑥ఫᏯ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵㸦Federal Housing Finance Agency: FHFA㸧ࡀࣇ ࢽ࣓ࣇࣞࢹࣜࢵࢡ࣐ࢵࢡࢆᨻᗓࡢ⟶⌮ୗ⨨ࡃබ⾲ࠋ 9 ᭶ 15 ᪥ ࣂࣥࢡ࣭࢜ࣈ࣭࣓ࣜ࢝ࡀ 500 ൨ࢻ࡚࣓ࣝࣜࣝࣜࣥࢳࢆ㈙ࡍࡿ බ⾲ࠋ 9 ᭶ 15 ᪥ ࣮࣐ࣜࣥࣈࣛࢨ࣮ࢬࡀ࣓ࣜ࢝㐃㑥◚⏘ἲ➨ 11 ᮲ࢆ⏦ㄳࡋࠊಽ⏘ࠋ 9 ᭶ 16 ᪥ 㐃㑥‽ഛ⌮ࡀ NY 㐃㖟ࡀ㐃㑥‽ഛἲ➨ 13 ᮲ᇶ࡙ࡁࠊAIG 850 ൨ࢻࣝࢆ㝈ᗘᩆ῭㈨㔠ࢆᥦ౪ࡍࡿࡇࢆㄆࡵࡿࠋ 9 ᭶ 16 ᪥ ࣜࢨ࣮ࣈ࣭ࣉ࣐࣐ࣛࣜࢿ࣮ࣇࣥࢻࡢᰴᘧࡢ⣧౯್ࡀ㢠㠃 1 ࢻࣝࢆ ࡿࠋ 9 ᭶ 17 ᪥ SEC ࡣ㔠⼥ࢭࢡࢱ࣮ࡢࡍ࡚ࡢᴗࡢᰴᘧࡢ✵ࡾࢆ୍ⓗ⚗Ṇࠋ 9 ᭶ 18 ᪥ FOMC ࡣ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜ࠊࣥࢢࣛࣥࢻ㖟⾜ࠊࣂࣥࢡ࣭࢜ࣈ࣭࢝ࢼࢲࢫ࣡ ࢧࣈࣉ࣒ࣛ㔠⼥༴ᶵࡣ࠸ࡋ࡚㉳ࡁࡓ 101 ࢵࣉࣛࣥࢆ⥾⤖ࠋ 9 ᭶ 19 ᪥ 㐃㑥‽ഛ⌮ࡣ㖟⾜࠾ࡼࡧ㖟⾜ᣢࡕᰴ♫ࡀ MMMF ࡽඃⰋࡢ㈨ ⏘ ᢸ ಖ CP ࡢ ㈙ ࠸ ྲྀࡾ ࢆಁ ࡍ ࡓ ࡵ ࠊࠕ ㈨ ⏘ ᢸ ಖ CPMMF ᇶ 㔠 㸦Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutural Fund Liquidity Facility㸧ࠖࢆタ❧ࠋ 9 ᭶ 19 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ MMMF ࡢᢞ㈨άືࢆ⥔ᣢࡍࡿࡓࡵࠊⅭ᭰Ᏻᐃᇶ㔠ࡼࡾ᭱ 㧗 500 ൨ࢻࣝᨭฟࡍࡿ⏝ពࡢ࠶ࡿࡇࢆබ⾲ࠋ 9 ᭶ 21 ᪥ 㐃㑥‽ഛ⌮ࡣᢞ㈨㖟⾜ࠊࢦ࣮ࣝࢻ࣐ࣥࢧࢵࢡࢫࣔࣝ࢞ࣥࢫࢱࣥ ࣞࡀ㖟⾜ᣢࡕᰴ♫⛣⾜ࡍࡿࡇࢆㄆྍࡍࡿࠋ 9 ᭶ 24 ᪥ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ‽ഛ㖟⾜ࠊࣜࢡࢫࣂࣥࢡࠊࢹ࣐࣮ࣥࢡᅜ❧㖟⾜ࠊࣀࣝ ࢙࢘㖟⾜ࢫ࣡ࢵࣉࣛࣥࢆ⥾⤖ࠋ 9 ᭶ 25 ᪥ ㈓㖟⾜┘╩ᒁࡣ࣡ࢩࣥࢺ࣒ࣥࢳࣗࣝࢆ㛢㙐ࡋࠊJP ࣔࣝ࢞ࣥࢳ࢙ ࢫ྾ࡉࡏࡿࠋ 9 ᭶ 29 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ MMMF ࡢ୍ⓗ㢠ಖドࡢࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࢆไᐃࠋ 10 ᭶ 3 ᪥ ࠕ ⥭ ᛴ ⤒ ῭ Ᏻ ᐃ ἲ 㸦 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008㸧ࠖࡀ㆟ࢆ㏻㐣ࡋࠊ7000 ൨ࢻࣝࡢࠕⰋ㈨⏘ᩆ῭ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛ 㸦Troubled Asset Relief Program: TARP㸧ࠖࡀỴᐃࡉࢀࡿࠋ 10 ᭶ 6 ᪥ FRB ࡣ㡸㔠㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢᡤせ‽ഛ࠾ࡼࡧ㉸㐣‽ഛࡍࡿࡇࢆỴ ᐃࠋᡤせ‽ഛࡣ FF ࣮ࣞࢺ࣐ࢼࢫ 0.1ࠊ㉸㐣‽ഛࡣ࣐ࢼࢫ 0.45㸣ࠋ 10 ᭶ 7 ᪥ FRB ࡣ CP ᕷሙࡢάᛶࡢࡓࡵࠊࠕCP ㈙ྲྀࡾᇶ㔠㸦Commercial Paper Funding Facility: CPFF㸧 ࠖࢆタ❧ࠋ 10 ᭶ 8 ᪥ FOMC ࡣ㹄㹄࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 1.50㸣ࡲ࡛ୗࡆࡿࠋ 10 ᭶ 12 ᪥ FRB ࡣ࢚࢘ࣝࢫࣇ࣮ࢦࡢ࣡ࢥࣅ㈙ࢆㄆྍࠋ 10 ᭶ 14 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡀ㹒㸿㹐㹎ࡢᐇ⾜ࢆᐉゝࠋせ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵 9 ♫⥲㢠࡛ 1250 ൨ࢻ ࣝࡢ㈨㔠ᥦ౪ࢆồࡵࡿࠋ 10 ᭶ 22 ᪥ 㹄㹐㹀ࡣ㉸㐣‽ഛࡢ㔠ࢆᡤせ‽ഛ✚❧ᮇ㛫ࡢ㹄㹄࣮ࣞࢺࡢ᭱ప್࣐ ࢼࢫ 0.35㸣ኚ᭦ࠋ 10 ᭶ 29 ᪥ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 1.00㸣ୗࡆࡿࠋ 11 ᭶ 10 ᪥ FRB ࡣ࣓࢚ࣜ࢝ࣥࢡࢫࣉࣞࢫࡢ㖟⾜ᣢࡕᰴ♫ࡢ⛣⾜ࢆㄆྍࠋ 11 ᭶ 14 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣࠕ㈨ᮏ㉎ධィ⏬㸦Capital Purchase Program: CPP㸧ࠖࡼࡾ 21 ࡢ㖟⾜ࡽ⥲㢠 335 ൨ࢻࣝࡢඃඛᰴࢆ㉎ධࠋ 11 ᭶ 18 ᪥ GM,ࣇ࢛࣮ࢻࠊࢡࣛࢫࣛࡢ TARP ࡼࡿ㈨㔠ᩆ῭ࢆồࡵࡿࠋ 11 ᭶ 20 ᪥ ࣇࢽ࣓ࣇࣞࢹࣜࢵࢡ࣐ࢵࢡࡣ 2009 ᖺ 1 ᭶ࡲ࡛ᙜఫᏯࡢ༷ࢆ Ṇࡍࡿᐉゝࠋ 11 ᭶ 21 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ CPP ࡢୗ࡛ 23 ࡢ㖟⾜ࡽ 30 ൨ࢻࣝࡢඃඛᰴࢆ㉎ධࠋ 102 Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, Vol.21, No.2, March 2012 11 ᭶ 23 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࠊFRBࠊFDIC ࡀඹྠ࡛ࢩࢸࢢ࣮ࣝࣉᩆ῭ࡢࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࢆⓎ ⾲ࠋ 11 ᭶ 25 ᪥ FRB ࡣ ࠕ ㈨ ⏘ᢸಖドๆ㈚ᇶ㔠㸦 Term Asset-Backed securities Lending Facility: TALF㸧ࢆタ❧ࠋࡇࢀࡼࡗ࡚ࠊNY 㐃㖟ࡣ AAA ᱁ ࡢ MBS ࡸᾘ㈝⪅࣮ࣟࣥ࠾ࡼࡧᑠཱྀࡢࣅࢪࢿࢫ࣮ࣟࣥࡢ㈚ᡭࣀࣥࣜ ࢥ࣮ࢫ࡛ 2000 ൨ࢻࣝࡲ࡛ࡢ⼥㈨ࡀྍ⬟ࠋࡑࡢಙ⏝ಖドࡋ࡚ࠊ㈈ົ ┬ࡣ TARP ࡢ 200 ൨ࢻࣝࢆ⏝ពࡍࡿࠋ 11 ᭶ 25 ᪥ FRB ࡣࣇࢽ࣓ࠊࣇࣞࢹࣜࢵࢡ࣐ࢵࢡࠊࡢമົཬࡧࡇࢀࡽ GSE ࡀ ಖドࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ MBS ࡢ㉎ධィ⏬ࢆබ⾲ࠋ┤᥋ࡢമົࡣ 1000 ൨ࢻࣝࠊ MBS ࡣ 5000 ൨ࢻࣝࢆୖ㝈㉎ධࡍࡿࠋ 11 ᭶ 26 ᪥ FRB ࡣࣂࣥࢡ࣭࢜ࣈ࣭࣓ࣜ࢝ࡢ࣓ࣜࣝࣜࣥࢳ㈙ࢆㄆྍࠋ 12 ᭶ 3 ᪥ SEC ࡣ᱁ࡅᶵ㛵ࡢ᱁ࡅࡢㄝ᫂㈐௵ࠊࡑࡢࣉࣟࢭࢫࡢ㏱᫂ᛶࢆᙉ ࡋࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࡼࡾ☜ᐇ࡞ሗࢆᥦ౪࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺᪂ࡓ࡞ไᗘࢆసࡿࠋ 12 ᭶ 5 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ 35 ࡢ㖟⾜ࡢඃඛᰴࢆ⥲㢠 40 ൨ࢻ࡚ࣝ㉎ධࠋ 12 ᭶ 10 ᪥ FDIC ࡣಽ⏘㖟⾜ᑐࡍࡿ㡸㔠ಖ㝤ࡣ࡛࠶ࡿ⧞ࡾ㏉ࡋᙉㄪࠋ 12 ᭶ 11 ᪥ NBER ࡣᬒẼࡢࣆ࣮ࢡࡣ 2007 ᖺ 12 ᭶࡛࠶ࡾࠊࡑࡢᚋᬒẼࡣୗ㝆ࡋ࡚ ࠸ࡿⓎ⾲ 12 ᭶ 12 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ 28 ࡢ㖟⾜ᑐࡋ࡚⥲㢠 62 ൨ 5000 ࢻࣝࡢඃඛᰴࢆ㉎ධࠋ 12 ᭶ 16 ᪥ FOMC ࡣ FF ࣮ࣞࢺࢆ 0㸫0.25㸣ࡲ࡛ୗࡆࡿࠋ 12 ᭶ 19 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ TARP ࡽࠊGMࠊࢡࣛࢫ࣮ࣛᑐࡋ࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 134 ൨ࢻ ࣝࠊ40 ൨ࢻࣝࢆ⼥㈨ࡍࡿࠋ 12 ᭶ 23 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ 43 ࡢ㖟⾜ࡽ⥲㢠 151 ൨ࢻࣝࡢඃඛᰴࢆ㉎ධࠋ 12 ᭶ 30 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ 11 ᭶ 25 ᪥ࡢ GSE ᩆ῭ィ⏬ᇶ࡙ࡁࠊࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢಖドമᶒࡢ ㉎ධࢆᐇࡍࡿⓎ⾲ࠋ 12 ᭶ 30 ᪥ SEC ࡣබṇ౯᱁ィᇶ‽ᑐࡢሗ࿌᭩ࢆⓎ⾲ࠋࡇࡢሗ࿌᭩ࡣ 2008 ᖺࡢ⥭ᛴ⤒῭Ᏻᐃἲᇶ࡙ࡃࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࠋ 12 ᭶ 31 ᪥ ㈈ົ┬ࡣ 7 㖟⾜ࡢඃඛᰴࢆ⥲㢠 191 ൨ࢻ࡚ࣝ㉎ධࠋ 2009 ᖺ 1 ᭶ 5 ᪥ NY 㐃㖟ࡀ 2008 ᖺ 11 ᭶ 25 ᪥ࡢỴᐃᇶ࡙ࡁࣇࢽ࣓ࠊࣇࣞࢹࢵࣜ ࢵࢡࠊࢪࢽ࣓ࡢᅛᐃ㔠ࡢ MBS ࡢ㈙ྲྀࡾࢆ㛤ጞࠋ
© Copyright 2024 Paperzz
