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HELE(高効率低排出)石炭技術は2℃目標と矛盾する

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HELEŕò0k%Ŗ¬›fÀė2ô
¨‹ē«ªĉĤ
2016X5~19y
Lindee WongŘŎŒĿĪŔœĬįŒĵ
k%*–fÀĖoˆŘò0k%ŕHELE)¬›š-¦îe
>  EڐJ1‡µ„³¯21C¸³EÎŕCOP21ŖĒö
<EsYėHŸĖWI—zĨ¡‰ï@+ēÕĈ
đ2ô
ôġģ3&ĕăďö1.5ô
ô™ĕgþĤ/-ĨØ
8ĉĤĆēĨ³ƒĈč
>  —R0†IJĹk%*–ĖƑ°ēĈđöò0k%
ŕHELE)¬›š-¦îāoˆćĥđüĤ
à2
¤¬›4ŕWCAŖŖ “ò0k%ŕHELE)¬›š-¦îeĖȹėö
›´C9œÏ¥œ)¢fÀŕCCUS)ĀĢk%ĻŐĕĝĄč
“ĥĕÿüđö}
}'ĖáÃĔĹľĽňēĔĤ÷HELE¦îf
ÀėxĕB‰)¢ćĥđÿģöUåāÛĞĘö!î-ßä
ĀĢĖ—R0†IJĹk%Ĩ³20%*–ĉĤĆēā;»ē
ĔĤ÷
%#: http://www.worldcoal.org/reducing-co2-emissions/high-efficiency-low-emission-coal
2
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
ňŐĸĭĴŀĖ¨§
>  HELE¬
¬›š-¦îėö—zĨ2ô
ô™ĕgþĤ¨‹ē«ªĈĔüĀŚ
>  ¬›š-¦îēk%ĕÿüđöJ1ĕçĉĤsYæńŃŏŕIPCCŖÿġęEìĮŃŏ
ijŔŒçŕIEAŖĖ2ôķłŎİĖQwÊĨ¿ý
>  žGöÈSâ1,400ijIJőĽŀŕGWŖĖ¬›š-¦îeāÇ£ćĥđüĤĖĒöĆĖÇ£
ā2ôķłŎİĕ«ªĈĔüĀÊĉĤ
3
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
HELE¬›š-¦îė
½¤F¦îfÀĕĚđò0k%
>  HELE¬›š-¦îė
½¤F¬›š-¦îĕĚđò0k%
Jp0
CO2 k%75ó
(gCO2/kWh)
¬›”Ðâó(g/
kWh)
½¤F
}Ló38%
≥880
≥380
ѽ¤FŕSCŖŖ
}Ló42%
800–880
340–380
Ñø½¤FŕUSCŖŖ
}Ló45%
740–800
320–340
ÛÑø½¤Fš-¦îfÀŕAUSCŖŖ/ ¬›IJĹ2Â=¦î
ŕIGCCŖ
Ŗ
45–50%
670–740
290–320
fÀ
%#:EìĮŃŏijŔŒçŕIEA), 2012X, ò0k%Ė¬›š-¦îfÀŐŔŁʼnĽň
>  ĆĖĖ0§Ĕ¦îfÀ
õġģòü0ĖŘMœIJŚ-¦îĖ¦î0ė}L60%
õġģüCO2 k%75ĖŘMœIJŚ-¦îĖCO2 k%tė350–õõõõ
490 gCO2/kWhöñ-ÿġęNé¦îĖk%tė0 gCO2/kWh
4
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
›´C9œÏ¥ŕCCSŖÚ-¦îė
k%75ĖĜĔĢĊJp0ğąĤ
>  ›´C9œÏ¥ŕCCSŖĖňŐĺĹŘ
V‰ĠĮŃŏijŔçÚÈĀĢk
%ćĥĤCO2Ĩ&íöC9
ÖÙ
ã€Ï¥
>  k%75ėö50-150 gCO2/kWhēnPĉĤ
>  ōīņĶīĴŏCO2k%â (mlö.VöÖÙ) ė95-150 gCO2/kWhēĈđØ.
>  CO2 &ífÀėĮŃŏijŔĨ”ÐĈöJp0ĨćċĤ
>  CCSĂóĖ¬›š-¦îeėöóIPCCÿġęIEAĖ2ôķłŎİĕÿüđėöáÃĔ¹Ĩ6
ĞđüĤ
5
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
2ô¨‹ÞdĖčĞĕ
î-ßäė2050X
XěĒĕ¼›´2ĈđüĤ`ÃāûĤ
>  IPCCĖ2°CķłŎİėöî-ßäā2050XěĒĕ¼›´2ĨÛĞĤ`ÃāûĤē­Ĉđü
Ĥ
>  2050X
Xèėöî-ßäĖk%âĨʼnīłĹĕĉĤ`ÃāûĤŕŃ
ŃIJľĪŇœĮŊĽķŌŒŖó
IPCCĖ2ôķłŎİĕġĤ¦îĀĢĖCO2 k%â (MtCO2/year)
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
1090ńŔĺŒļīŏ
10th-90th
percentile
O
Median
出典:IPCC、2014年、Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Annex III)(気候変動 2014:気候変動の緩和―IPCC 第 5 次評価報告書の第 3 作業部会報告書)
6
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
CCSāüđüĔü¬›š-¦îeė
2050X
XěĒĕŽê§ĕZ
10,000
IPCC1.5ôķłŎİĕÿĄĤ¬›š-ŕCCSĔĈŖĖ¦
îâ (TWh/year)
IPCC2ôķłŎİĕÿĄĤ¬›š-ŕCCSĔĈŖĖ¦î
â (TWh/year)
10th-90th
percentile
1090ńŔĺŒļīŏ
Median
O
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0
0
10th-90th
percentile
1090ńŔĺŒļīŏ
Median
O
CCSĔĈĖ¬›š-¦îeĖŽê§Z
X
2°C ķłŎİ
1.5°C ķłŎİ
2010 – 2020
-4%/X
-5%/X
2020 – 2030
-6%/X
-6%/X
2030 – 2040
-5%/X
-8%/X
出典: IPCC, 2014年,; 気候変動2014:気候変動の緩和-IPCC第5時評価報告書の第3作業歩合報告書 Rogelj, J., G. Luderer, R. C. Pietzcker, E. Kriegler, M. Schaeffer, V. Krey and K. Riahi (2015). "Energy
system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5°C." Nature Clim. Change 5(6): 519-527.
7
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
IEA 450ķłŎİė
2040Xĕė¬›š-¦îeĖ75%ā
āCCS
ĂĕĔĤē˜
>  IEA 450ķłŎİ (450S) ėöHŸĖWI—zĨ2ô™ĕgþĤčĞĕ`ÃĔs°ĨPĈđüĤ÷
ČĥĢĕėöĖCCSĕçĉĤğĖóğ?ěĥĤŘ
– 
EĖî-ßäĒė2020XðĀĢöīŒŁĒė2025XðĀĢCCSāUåćĥĤ
– 
– 
y‚Ė¬›š-¦îeĕğCCSāT
ćĥĤ
ĩŋŎıēEUĒėCCSĖ)¢rqāhLĉĤ
>  2040Xĕė¬›š-¦îeĖ75% āCCSĂĕĔĤ
Coal
generation (incl. CCS)
¬›š-Ė¦îâŕCCSĂĨ?ĝŖ
󬛚-Ė¦îâŕCCSĔĈŖõõ
Coal
generation (excl. CCS)
óCO2k%â
CO2
emissions
¦îâŕTWśŖ
Generation
(TWh)
10,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
CO2 emissions
(MtCO2)
Co2 k%âŕMtCo
2Ŗ
12,000
0
2050
%#: IEA, 2015,X ùWorld Energy Outlookŕ¤ĮŃŏijŔUŖú
8
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
450ķłŎİĒėî-ĕ,ģjĢĥč2ô
ôķłŎİĕÿĄĤ›´±ĖĉĚđĨ
¬›š-ā”Ðřvs°ŗž¿s°ķłŎİĕÿĄĤk%âÝK
¬›š-¦îĖ¦îâ (TWh/year)
¦îßäĀĢĖCO2 k%â (MtCO2/year)
20,000
15,000
15,000
Excl. CCS
10,000
Excl. CCS
5,000
0
10,000
5,000
0
Excl. CCS
2010
2020
2030
2040
IPCC2ôķłŎİĖ²DŕCCSĔĈŖ
IPCC
2°C range excl. CCS
IPCC2ôķłŎİĖOŕCCSĔĈŖ
IPCC
2°C Median excl. CCS
New
Policies incl. CCS
IEAĖNPS(CCSĂĨ?ĝŖ
Current
Policies incl. CCS
IEAĖCPSŕCCSĂĨ?ĝŖ
450S
incl. CCS
IEAĖ450SŕCCSĂĨ?ĝŖ
-5,000
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
IPCC
2°C range (power generation)
IPCC2ôķłŎİĖ²Dŕ¦îßä!Ŗ
IPCC
2°C median (power generation)
IPCC2ôķłŎİĖOŕ¦îßä!Ŗ
IEAĖNPS(¬›¦îŖ
New
Policies (coal generation)
IEAĖCPSଛ¦îŖ
Current
Policies (coal generation)
IEAĖ450Sଛ¦îŖ
450S
(coal generation)
>  IEAž
ž¿s°ķłŎİŕCPS) –Qw$¹ā"\ĕm¢ćĥđüĤs°ĖĜĨºcĈöĆĥĢĖs°ā]2ćĥĊĕi·ĉĤ
ēPĈčķłŎİ
>  IEA vs°ķłŎİŕNPS) –E(¨‹ˆŕINDC;³ƒ¾ˆŖĕ|ĀĥčĮŃŏijŔçÚĖs°Ĩ?ĞöĆĥěĒĕ¦Áćĥ
čs°Ġw°ĨºcĈčķłŎİ
9
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
Ç£Ė¬›š-¦îeĖXæk%âėö
2030XĖ¦îĕÿĄĤ2ô
ôķłŎİĒÉćĥĤk%âĉĚđĕË^
>  1,400 GWĖ¬›š-ĖvÈSâāÇ£
>  2ôķłŎİĒėöÇ£ćĥđüĤÈSâĖÈ)¢ė20%
™ŕ!;©^ÜÔ{æó1,600{æŖ
ŅĸŃĹm±ā=ħĔü
ēĔģöÇ£SâĖŅ
>  WIk%tā830 gCO2/kWhĒûĤĆēėöÇ
Ç£Ė¦îe!đāHELE¬
¬›š-¦îĒėĔüĆēĨ
­AĈđüĤ
Ç£Ė¬›š-¦îeĀĢĖCO2 k%âē
ôķłŎİēĖÕ (MtCO2/year)
IPCC 2ô
Ç£ĖÈSâ (GW)
16,000
Ç£"Á•
Ì;+
12,000
434
(30%)
488
(34%)
156
(11%)
352
(25%)
Ì;:_•
[È
出典: 世界石炭火力発電所トラッカー,2016年, 提案されている石炭火力発電所(国別 MW)2016年1月
10
2°CķłŎİē
Ė«ª
8,000
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
4,000
0
-4,000
IPCC
2°C range (power generation)
IPCC2ôķłŎİĖ²Dŕ¦îßä!Ŗ
IPCC
2°C Median (power generation)
IPCC2ôķłŎİĖOŕ¦îßä!Ŗ
Ç£Ė¬›š-õk%â
Planned
coal power emissions
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Ç£SâāĉĚđHELE¬›š-ěčėCCSĂĒûĐđğ
〧ĕė2ô¨‹āÞdĒĂĤÄ×ĜāĔü
Ç£ŗ ͧĔ¬›¦îeĀĢĖCO2 k%âē
IPCC 2ô
ôķłŎİēĖÕ (MtCO2/year)
>  ĕĉĚđĖÇ£Ė¬›š-¦îSâā
¬›š-¦îeĎēĈđğöCO2 k%â 16,000
HELE¬
ė2040XĖ!î-ßäĀĢĖ›´±Ė2
ēĔĤ
12,000
>  Ç£SâĖĉĚđāCCS
ĂĎēĉĥĘ:
– 
2030Xē2040Xĕÿüđėö—z
Ĩ2ô™ĕgþĤ¶Òĕ’ý
– 
X5,400 MtCO2ĖC9œÏ¥ā`ÃĒû
ĤĆēĀĢŕžG®ĖCCS¦îeė1
ĀeĖĜĒöC9âė1 MtCO2/XŖó
XĕQžĒĂĤ;»aėü
2030X
– 
ĆĖ„ĒûĐđğ¦îeĀĢĖCO2
k%ė2°C ķłŎİĖ¶ÒĕÿĄĤ
XĖ›´±ĨÑÝĈđüĤ;»
2050X
aāòü
8,000
2°CķłŎİē
Ė«ª
4,000
0
-4,000
〧ĕğ2ķłŎİĕ«ª
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
IPCC
2°C range (power generation)
IPCC2ôķłŎİĖ²Dŕ¦îßä!Ŗ
IPCC2ôķłŎİĖOŕ¦îßä!Ŗ
IPCC
2°C Median (power generation)
Ç£Ė¬›š-õk%â
Planned
coal power emissions
¬›š-õbk%â(A-USC¦îeŖ
Theoretical
coal power emissions (A-USC plants)
¬›š-õbk%âŕCCSĂŖ
Theoretical
coal power emissions
(CCS equipped)
11
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
HELE¬›š-¦îė2ô™Ė¶Òē«ªĉĤ
>  2ôķłŎİĨÞdĉĤĕėöî-ßäė2050XěĒĕ¼›´2ĈöCCSāüđüĔü¬
›š-¦îeė2050XěĒĕŽê§ĕZćĥĔĄĥĘĔĢĔü
>  IEA450ķłŎİėö75%Ė¬›š-¦îeāCCSĂĒûĤēüý„ĨÓěþđğö
2040Xĕė—zĨ2ôĕgþĤčĞĕî-ßäĕÉćĥĤ›´±Ĩ!đ”ÐĈđĈ
ěý
>  IEAĖž¿s°ķłŎİÿġęvs°ķłŎİėöüĊĥğ2ô¨‹ĕ>Ąč¶Òĕu=Ĉ
Ĕü
>  Ç£Ė¬›š-¦îÈŕ1,400 GWŖĖ!đāHELE¬›š-¦îĎēĈđğö2ô¨‹
ĕu=ĈĔü
õó2050Xö¬›š-¦îeāCCSĂĒûĐčēĈđğöĠėģ2ô¨‹ĕu=ĈĔü
>  2ô¨‹Ė¶ÒēĖëčģėöġģžQ§ĔbPĖĒėćĢĕLĂăĔĤĎĦý:
–  ĆĖ&…ėöŠÅ§ĔJp0ēCCS/HELE¦îĖUåĨ+oĕĈđüĤ
–  ĆĖ&…ĕōīņĶīĴŏk%âė?ěĥđüĔü
12
© ECOFYS | 20/05/2016 | Lindee Wong
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