Adapting to Climate
Change in the UK
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Context - experience of impacts
Events in recent years, that may become more frequent as the climate
changes, have shown us the importance of being prepared
Summer 2007 floods in the UK:
• 55,000+ homes and businesses flooded
• 140,000+ homes in Gloucestershire lost water supplies for over a week.
• serious damage to many schools in Hull, and major motorways were
closed as were many railway stations and lines
• cost estimated at around £3 billion
Summer 2003 heat wave in the UK:
• 2000 premature deaths
• 6 August Thames Water supplied 2603 million litres to London, 300
million litres above average
• £400 million in subsidence claims
• speed restrictions on rail lines (including the London Underground) and
school closures
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Adapting to Climate Change in the UK
What’s in the legislative framework?
What is the role of Government?
What level is the framework set at?
What evidence do we have?
What have we learned from our experience?
Current work in the UK
Summary of the UK experience
Useful links
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What’s in the legislative framework?
The Climate Change Act (2008)
• Climate Change Risk Assessment
• Statutory adaptation programme
• Adaptation Sub-Committee to the Committee on Climate Change
Adaptation and the costs of climate change
What is the role of Government ? Cost of climate change
• To address market failure
Cost of climate
change without
adaptation
• To address behavioural barriers:
Net benefits
of adaptation
near term costs vs. greater longterm benefits on distributional
Gross benefits
of adaptation
grounds
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Source: Stern (2006)
Total cost of
climatechange
after adaptation
Cost of adaptation +
residual climate
change damage
Residual climate
change damage
Global mean temperature
What is the role of Government?
When should Government intervene?
Proportionate action with decisions at the right level
Impacts will vary:
Options for action will
vary:
• Geography
• Live with change
• Land use
• Retreat from change
• Economic sectors
• Increase resilience
• Population density
• Protect against change
• and so on
• Intervention needs to be proportionate and timely (decision based)
• Intervention is oftenRESTRICTED
best designed at the local and regional level
What level is the framework set at?
What level is the framework set at?
The UK Government’s framework for delivering an efficient adaptation strategy
therefore focuses on:
•
providing and promoting information
•
supporting co-ordination at local and regional levels
•
embedding consistent targets and incentives across different levels and
promoting co-ordination
In line with this, our framework:
•
has statutory requirements where it is appropriate
•
has a strong focus on developing the evidence base
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What evidence do we have?
The UK Climate Projections 2009
• World leading science, produced by a
consortium
• A range of futures – 3 emission scenarios up to
2099. Probabilities – not a weather forecast -
invaluable for risk assessment
• A training Programme across the country, in
different regions and for different sectors –
Maps of the UK
for:
 Temperature
 Rainfall
 Sea level
showing people how to use them - and
detailed guidance on line. Approach taken
based on UKCIP experience of working with
stakeholders since 1996
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on a 25 x 25 km
grid
What evidence do we have?
The Climate Change Risk Assessment
• National Risk Assessment required (under Climate Change Act) to be
delivered to Parliament by Jan 2012. Will then be updated every 5 years.
• Will provide evidence and analysis that will enable UK to:
• understand the level of risks (threats and opportunities)
• compare the risks of a changing climate with other pressures
• prioritise adaptation policy geographically and by sector
• assess the costs and benefits of adaptation actions and support the case
for resources
• Part of the Risk Assessment includes an Economic Analysis:
• estimates a "price-tag" of adaptation
• identifies areas where action is most beneficial
• Stakeholder Steering RESTRICTED
Group overseeing the project
Current work in the UK
Which systems and processes have we targeted (mainstreaming)?
Some examples:
• The HM Treasury Green Book
• Procurement
• Government estate
• Infrastructure
• Starting work on private sector
Why have we targeted these systems and processes?
•
these systems are all part of “business as usual” for all Government
Departments and public sector organisations. Embedding adaptation in
them means that it will be mainstreamed in our work.
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Summary of the UK experience
• Top down leadership was essential
• A clear framework for action, identifying “must do” tasks for the
national level
• Cross-Government working from user perspective ensured that
adaptation was embedded in key systems and processes, and that gaps
in priority areas could be filled
• A continuous process (how to be good at risk – practice) – building
in evaluations and reviews from the beginning, and updating our
priorities and approaches accordingly.
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Useful Links
•
The Climate Change Risk Assessment:
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adaptation/assess-risk.htm
•
Government systems, including the Green Book Guidance and infrastructure
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/programme/government-systems.htm
•
The role of Government, and the economic analysis paper on the role of
Government
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adaptation/government-role.htm
•
The UK Climate Projections 2009
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adaptation/how.htm
•
UK Climate Impacts Programme
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/
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What have we learned?
Key lessons
• Need to get the right action at the right level - Climate Change Act
requires us to undertake certain actions, and has helped drive activity,
but only covers activities best done at the national level.
• UKCIP experience shows that just making evidence available is not
enough: people have to understand how to use it.
• Stakeholder involvement in the development of the evidence base will
ensure it’s focused on what decision-makers really need.
What’s next?
• Continued evaluation and learning, feeding in to development.
• Partnership Boards established for national and regional level to steer
the Programme’s work - will seek their feedback, as well as the input
from the Adaptation Sub-Committee.
• Surveys to benchmark awareness, and targeted surveys about the
UKCP09 experience .
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Experience of impacts
Events in recent years, that may become more frequent as the climate
changes, have shown us the importance of being prepared
Summer 2007 floods in the UK:
• 55,000+ homes and businesses flooded
• 140,000+ homes in Gloucestershire lost water supplies for over a week.
• serious damage to many schools in Hull, and major motorways were
closed as were many railway stations and lines
• cost estimated at around £3 billion
Summer 2003 heat wave in the UK:
• 2000 premature deaths
• 6 August Thames Water supplied 2603 million litres to London, 300
million litres above average
• £400 million in subsidence claims
• speed restrictions on rail lines (including the London Underground) and
school closures
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