This is the pre-peer-reviewed version of the following article: Changes in plant species and functional composition with time since fire in two mediterranean climate plant communities, Carl R. Gosper, Colin J. Yates, Suzanne M. Prober. Journal of Vegetation Science, vol. 23, issue 6, Copyright © 2012, International Association for Vegetation Science. Wiley-Blackwell. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2012.01434.x 1 Changes in plant species and functional composition with time since 2 fire in two Mediterranean-climate plant communities 3 Carl R. Gosper, Colin J. Yates & Suzanne M. Prober 4 5 Gosper, C.R. (corresponding author, [email protected]): Science Division, Department of 6 Environment and Conservation, Locked Bag 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Western Australia 6983, 7 Australia; CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, Wembley Western Australia 6913, Australia 8 Yates, C.J. ([email protected]): Science Division, Department of Environment and 9 Conservation, Locked Bag 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Western Australia 6983, Australia 10 Prober, S.M. ([email protected]): CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, Wembley 11 Western Australia 6913, Australia 12 13 Keywords 14 Fire-return interval; Plant functional type; Mallee; Obligate seeder; Seed bank; Senescence; Serotinous; 15 South-western Australia; Sprouter 16 Nomenclature 17 Western Australian Herbarium (1998-2011) 18 Abbreviations: PFT = plant functional type 19 Running head: Plant functional type changes with time since fire 20 21 Abstract 22 Question: Do floristic composition and Plant Functional Type (PFT) richness and 23 dominance change with time since fire, in the directions predicted through 24 consideration of their fire response traits? 25 Location: Two vegetation communities in the highly fragmented south-western 26 Australian wheatbelt: mallee, dominated by sprouters, and mallee-heath, dominated 27 by non-sprouters. 28 Methods: Species richness and cover were sampled in replicated plots across a time 29 since fire gradient ranging from 2 to > 55 yrs post-fire, using a space-for-time 30 approach. Species were allocated to PFTs according to their capacity to sprout, the 31 location and persistence of the seed bank, competitive stratum and longevity. 2 32 Ordination and ANOVA were used to test for differences in floristic and PFT 33 composition between young (< 10 yrs post-fire), mature (19-35 yrs) and old (> 40 yrs) 34 vegetation in each community. 35 Results: PFT and floristic analyses were similar, showing substantial changes in the 36 composition of mallee-heath vegetation with time since fire, but not in mallee. The 37 direction of change in PFT composition in mallee-heath was consistent with 38 predictions, with increasing cover of non-sprouting serotinous PFTs, an intermediate 39 peak in cover of PFTs with persistent soil-stored seed banks, and decreasing cover of 40 post-fire ephemerals and non-sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs and 41 graminoids with increasing time since fire. Success in predicting changes in PFT 42 dominance in mallee was lower. 43 Conclusions: The similarity of floristic and PFT analyses suggest that these 44 approaches are interchangeable for characterizing vegetation change with increasing 45 time since fire. PFTs were more effective for predicting fire response trajectories in 46 the vegetation community dominated by non-sprouters (mallee-heath) than the 47 community dominated by sprouters (mallee). The PFTs that declined most in richness 48 and cover with increasing time since fire were those with persistent soil-stored seed 49 banks in the community dominated by non-sprouters. While knowledge of seed bank 50 longevity is poor overall, in some representatives of these PFTs the decline in the 51 incidence of fire in remnants represents a significant threat. 52 53 Introduction 54 Plant functional types (PFTs) are groupings of plant taxa that share particular 55 functional traits. Whilst the traits used in such classifications necessarily vary 56 depending on the purpose of the study and the mechanisms through which responses 57 occur (Noble & Gitay 1996), the PFT approach has been widely used in predicting 58 plant community changes in response to a variety of environmental perturbations 59 (Noble & Slatyer 1980; McIntyre et al. 1995; Keith et al. 2007). Fire is one such 60 perturbation, shaping vegetation patterns and plant community composition in 61 seasonally dry landscapes worldwide (Bond & van Wilgen 1996; Bond et al. 2005; 62 Verdú & Pausas 2007). 3 63 Fires consume biomass and promote plants with functional traits that enable 64 survival, recruitment and/or reproduction during and shortly after fire. The 65 communities which then assemble are influenced by a variety of factors, such as the 66 time since the last fire, the characteristics of the fire, the pool and traits of the species 67 that can reach the site, post fire conditions and species interactions (Noble & Slatyer 68 1980; Bond & van Wilgen 1996). Understanding the effects of components of a fire 69 regime, such as time since fire, is important for fire management for biodiversity 70 conservation. The critical functional traits likely to determine the response of species 71 to time since fire are the methods of population persistence through fire (sprouting, 72 seed banks, and dispersal from elsewhere), competition during the inter-fire period, 73 and the timing of life-history stages, such as reproductive maturity and senescence 74 (Keith et al. 2007). 75 Changes in plant community composition with time since fire are also addressed 76 through models of ecological succession or assembly (Clements 1916; Capitanio & 77 Carcaillet 2008). The ‘initial floristic composition’ model of succession (Egler 1954) 78 proposes that all (or at least the majority of) plant species present during the 79 succession re-establish shortly after fire, that re-establishment is relatively rapid, and 80 that changes over time reflect differential growth rates and survivorship (Collins et al. 81 1995; Capitanio & Carcaillet 2008). Changes in diversity indices have been in 82 concordance with the initial floristic composition model of succession in a number of 83 fire-prone communities (Russell & Parsons 1978; Grace & Keeley 2006; Gosper et al. 84 in press), although classical relay floristic succession (Clements 1916) may also apply 85 in some cases over longer time scales (e.g. Jackson 1968; Maher et al. 2010). 86 By combining predictions arising from an understanding of PFTs and vegetation 87 assembly models, changes in plant communities with time since fire can be predicted. 88 Given expected re-establishment of most species shortly after fire under the initial 89 floristics model (Gosper et al. in press), predictions include the following PFT 90 responses after fire (relative to PFTs equivalent in fire response traits other than the 91 trait under consideration): 92 1. Non-sprouting PFTs will increase in cover, but not in richness, 93 with greater time since fire. Sprouting PFTs are likely to change little in 94 cover or richness beyond the immediate post-fire period, as sprouts 4 95 typically recover biomass more rapidly after fire than germinates (Keith & 96 Bradstock 1994; Pausas 1999; Keith et al. 2007). 97 2. PFTs with soil-stored seed might peak in cover at an 98 intermediate time since fire, and decrease in richness with increasing time 99 since fire, as soil-stored seed banks can persist long after adult plant death 100 (Weston 1985) meaning that greater adult longevity is less crucial for long- 101 term population persistence. PFTs with canopy-stored seed (serotinous) 102 might change little in richness but have increasing cover with time since 103 fire. This is predicted as greater longevity would be important to maximise 104 seed bank size at the time of fire in environments where inter-fire 105 recruitment and maturation is typically low, post-fire conditions are 106 conducive to seed survival and recruitment, and seeds stored on dead plants 107 or shed after inter-fire plant dead are typically lost (Lamont et al. 1991; 108 Lamont et al. 2007). 109 3. Post-fire ephemerals, due to their limited longevity and fire- 110 stimulated germination, are likely to decline rapidly in richness and cover 111 with time since fire (Bond & van Wilgen 1996). 112 4. Due to competitive interactions in the inter-fire period, cover 113 and richness of PFTs in lower vegetative strata may decline with time since 114 fire, while there would likely be little change in richness and an increase in 115 cover in upper strata PFTs (Keith & Bradstock 1994; Keith et al. 2007). 116 While a variety of studies have tested predictions of fire response using the 117 functional trait approach in sites of known histories of disturbance (Keith & 118 Bradstock 1994; Pausas et al. 2004), few analyses have extended these to multiple 119 communities with different PFT compositions but subject to the same range of 120 disturbances. Further, few studies have compared analyses of functional vs. species 121 composition with respect to their value for informing fire management for 122 biodiversity conservation. 123 To better establish PFTs as a tool for informing vegetation management, we 124 investigated whether plant species and PFT composition and richness change with 125 time since fire in the direction predicted by their fire response traits. Explicit 126 predictions of fire response, derived by combining relevant predictions above, are 127 given in Table 1 for component PFTs of these communities. We used a space for time 128 approach to compare the effectiveness of predictions in two contrasting vegetation 5 129 types, mallee and mallee-heath, in the globally significant biodiversity hotspot of 130 south-western Australia. Mallee and mallee-heath are prominent and diverse 131 vegetation types in this Mediterranean-climate region, that occur in a mosaic across 132 the topographically subdued, fire-prone landscapes (Beard 1990). 133 Recent research has suggested that mallee and mallee-heath respond differently in 134 diversity indices, structure and vigour to time since fire (Parsons & Gosper 2011; 135 Gosper et al. in press), possibly due to their differing functional composition. Thus we 136 also predicted that changes in species and functional composition would be more 137 pronounced in mallee-heath than in mallee, due to dominance by fire-sensitive 138 serotinous non-sprouters and fire-resilient serotinous sprouters respectively (Capitanio 139 & Carcaillet 2008; Gosper et al. 2010; Parsons & Gosper 2011). Finally, we tested 140 whether a PFT approach sufficiently captures time-since-fire responses in our study 141 communities, or whether floristic compositional data provides additional insights 142 relevant to management. 143 144 Methods 145 The study was conducted in the south-eastern wheatbelt in Western Australia. All 146 Nature Reserves and parcels of unallocated crown land were considered for sampling 147 in the 50 x 70 km area bounded by Newdegate (33˚04’S, 119˚04’E), Lake King, 148 Cocanarup and Pingrup. The region has a dry Mediterranean climate, with average 149 annual rainfall in Lake Grace (the nearest long-term weather station) of 354 mm, 150 mainly falling in winter. Mean monthly daily temperature maxima range from 15.4 to 151 31.4°C, and mean monthly minima from 5.6 to 15.1°C (Bureau of Meteorology 2008). 152 The region supports a mosaic of mallee, mallee-heath and woodland, with vegetation 153 type determined by climate and especially edaphic factors (Beard 1990), and 154 influenced by historic disturbance patterns. 155 The mallee-heath community is characterized by a diverse shrub layer dominated 156 by serotinous obligate seeders (often Proteaceae), with scattered emergent mallees, 157 most frequently Tallerack (Eucalyptus pleurocarpa) (Gosper et al. 2010). The mature 158 mallee community is characterized by a close-spaced canopy of mallees (most 159 frequently E. scyphocalyx, E. phaenophylla and E. flocktoniae), over a sparse layer of 160 mostly sprouting shrubs (especially Melaleuca spp.) and sedges (Parsons & Gosper 161 2011). Mallees are long-lived Eucalyptus spp. characterised by numerous aerial 6 162 stems, a narrow canopy zone, and a large lignotuber from which plants resprout after 163 disturbances (Noble 2001). 164 165 Experimental design 166 Five replicates (except where indicated) were located in each of nine mallee-heath and 167 eight mallee vegetation age treatments: 2 yrs since the last fire (four samples, mallee- 168 heath only), 3-4 yrs, 6 yrs (six samples in mallee-heath), 18 – 20 yrs, 25 yrs, 30 yrs, 169 35 yrs, 45 yrs and ‘long unburnt’ (eight samples in mallee-heath). Long unburnt 170 should be interpreted as the site having not experienced fire since at least 1956, which 171 we have allocated an age of 55 yrs post-fire for analyses (although actual age is likely 172 to be substantially greater in many cases; see Gosper et al. in press for further details). 173 Information on other aspects of fire regime other than age (such as intensity, previous 174 fire intervals) was not available. 175 Our ‘space-for-time’ approach assumed that floristic composition at each of the 176 different sites is comparable (or at least that differences between them are randomly 177 distributed across fire ages; Hurlbert 1994; Oksanen 2001) and that fire event effects 178 (Bond & van Wilgen 1996) do not confound time since fire effects. We took a number 179 of steps to minimise uncertainty in attributing differences to time since fire. In 180 particular, replicates were spread across the available range of individual fire events 181 and across the study area where possible, and where multiple samples were placed 182 within an individual fire scar, samples were spaced at least 150 m apart (described 183 further in Gosper et al. in press). 184 185 Sampling 186 Plots of 10 x 10 m were placed at a random point 20-150 m into the vegetation from 187 an access track. In spring 2007, we recorded all vascular plant species present and 188 determined abundance using a line intercept technique by systematically placing a 189 12.5 mm diameter pole vertically at 50 points spread across the plot in a grid. 190 Abundance for any species was the proportion of points at which any of its leaves, 191 stems or inflorescences intercepted the pole. This technique provided an objective 192 measure of abundance reflecting but not equivalent to projective cover, and is 7 193 hereafter referred to as ‘cover’. Species that were present but not recorded at point 194 intercepts were allocated a nominal proportional abundance of 1%. 195 196 Plant functional types 197 We classified species on the basis of traits for which information was readily 198 observable or available, as follows: (i) the capacity to sprout from fire-resistant organs 199 (e.g. lignotubers, rhizomes etc); (ii) the location and persistence of the seed bank (i.e. 200 persistent canopy, persistent soil, transient soil); (iii) competitive stratum (upper, mid 201 and low), largely reflecting growth form; and (iv) longevity (i.e. species divided into 202 those species that grow, reproduce and senesce primarily in the immediate post-fire 203 period (≤ 6 yrs post-fire) and those that do not) (Table 1). 204 Not all of the resultant 36 possible PFT combinations were represented in the 205 sampled flora (Table 1). Further, following Keith et al. (2007), we combine some 206 allied PFTs to increase sample sizes and thus the capacity to detect changes, leaving 207 11 PFTs used in analyses. For sprouters, we combined species with transient and 208 persistent soil seed banks into one PFT per competitive stratum. Due to trade-offs 209 with the capacity for persistence, recruitment in this PFT is often low (Bond & 210 Midgley 2001), rendering the significance of the seed bank peripheral in many cases. 211 Both sprouting and non-sprouting representatives of short-lived species were 212 combined into a single PFT (fire ephemeral herbs), occurring across the lower two 213 competitive strata, as these species are largely functionally equivalent in avoiding 214 competition with other PFTs through rapid growth and reproduction post-fire, then 215 retreating below-ground (in seeds or dormant tubers or rhizomes) through the bulk of 216 the inter-fire period (see Keith et al. 2007). 217 For all species recorded in plots, we used published sources (primarily Flora of 218 Australia series; Western Australian Herbarium 1998–2011; Hassell 2000; Barrett et 219 al. 2009; DEC 2010, but other studies to fill gaps) and field observations to allocate 220 them to PFTs. The variability that exists within species for some of the traits under 221 consideration (Vivian et al. 2010) made allocation to a PFT difficult in some cases. 222 Where there was inconsistency between literature and field observations, field 223 observations were used. 8 224 Of the 305 taxa recorded in mallee-heath, 16.4% could not be allocated to a PFT. 225 In mallee, 22.2% of the 243 recorded taxa could not be allocated to a PFT. These 226 were mostly taxa with low abundance, as taxa of an unknown PFT contributed only 227 5.8% of all cover across mallee-heath sites and 11.4% for mallee sites. For each plot 228 richness and total cumulative cover of each PFT were calculated. 229 230 Statistical analyses 231 PRIMER analysis software (Version 6.1.11, PRIMER-E, Plymouth, UK) was used for 232 ordination analysis of floristic and PFT composition. To reduce the effects of regional 233 differences in the flora associated with high rates of species turnover and endemism in 234 south-western Australia (Cowling et al. 1994), plant species recorded from only a 235 single part of the study area were omitted from species-level analyses (not PFT-level 236 analyses). The study region was broadly divided in two, approximately north-south by 237 Lake Magenta and associated salt lakes. Only species that occurred on both sides of 238 this band of unsuitable habitat were included in analyses. This reduced total taxa per 239 habitat from 305 to 168 in mallee-heath, and 243 to 116 in mallee. 240 We completed separate analyses in both habitats using presence/absence data 241 (species only) and square-root transformed cover data (species and PFTs). 242 Presence/absence data emphasises changes in species composition (giving greater 243 weight to uncommon taxa), whilst cover data gives greater weight to larger and/or 244 more abundant species or PFTs. We used non-metric multi-dimensional scaling, with 245 the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity metric, and PERMANOVA and PERMDISP to test for 246 differences in location and dispersion respectively among vegetation ages. The 247 SIMPER algorithm was used to determine which species contributed most to 248 similarity within and dissimilarity between fire-ages. For simplicity in presentation 249 and reflecting gaps in the span of vegetation ages sampled, we aggregated ages into 250 ‘young’ (< 10 yrs post-fire), ‘mature’ (19-35 yrs) and ‘old’ (> 40 yrs). 251 Analysis of variance (ANOVA), using Statistica (Version 7.1, Statsoft, Tulsa, OK, 252 US), was used to test for differences in richness and cover of PFTs and total 253 vegetation cover due to vegetation age (young, mature and old) in each vegetation 254 community. To homogenise variances, square-root (x + 1) transformation was applied 255 to mallee total cover, richness of NNtree (see Table 1 for PFT codes) in mallee-heath 9 256 and cover of SNherb in mallee; and natural log (x +1) transformation to richness of 257 NA, SNherb and Ephem in mallee-heath, and cover of NStree, NNtree and SNshrub 258 in mallee and NStree, SNtree, NNherb and Ephem in mallee-heath. Due to the 259 absence of SNtree from mallee, and Ephem from the old age class in mallee, ANOVA 260 was not used in these cases. 261 262 Results 263 Species composition 264 Time since the last fire exerted a detectable effect on species cover in both habitats. In 265 mallee-heath, sites less than 10 yrs post-fire were orientated in one direction on the 266 ordination, mature (19-35 yrs) in another, with old (> 40 yrs) somewhat intermediate 267 (Figure 1a). There were differences in composition but not dispersion (Table 2) 268 between time since fire groups, with pair-wise comparisons indicating that all mallee- 269 heath age groups were distinct. Mean between vegetation age group dissimilarity was 270 greatest between young and mature, but old was on average more similar to mature 271 than to young (Table 3). Total cover in mallee-heath was least in young vegetation, 272 but reached a plateau across both mature and old vegetation (Table 4). 273 For analyses of mallee-heath cover, non-sprouting serotinous shrubs were the 274 greatest contributors to similarity within vegetation age groups and to dissimilarity 275 between vegetation age groups (Table 3). As predicted, representatives of this PFT 276 had much lower cover in young vegetation, higher cover in old and mature vegetation, 277 but variable patterns of increase or decrease between mature and old probably 278 depending on individual species’ longevity. Among the species contributing highly to 279 similarity/dissimilarity within/between vegetation age groups, vectors of some were 280 orientated in ordination along the division between vegetation ages, whilst others 281 were also associated with particular locations across the study area. Of those 282 orientated with the division between vegetation age groups, the direction of vectors 283 matched PFT predictions, with sprouters (Melaleuca villosisepala) associated with 284 young vegetation and non-sprouting serotinous trees (Hakea pandanicarpa) and 285 shrubs (Banksia erythrocephala, H. cygna) with mature vegetation. Sprouters, 286 including trees, serotinous shrubs and non-serotinous graminoids, contributed the 287 highest within-group similarity in young vegetation cover (Table 3). The strongest 10 288 contributors to similarity in mature and old vegetation were all non-sprouting 289 serotinous trees or shrubs. Between-group dissimilarity reflected this change from 290 sprouter to non-sprouter dominance with increasing time since fire. 291 Presence/absence data, while giving similar ordination and PERMANOVA results 292 to cover (Table 2), highlighted different indicators of changes with time since fire. As 293 predicted, sprouters and long-lived non-sprouters (i.e. serotinous trees and shrubs) 294 usually had little variation in occurrence between vegetation ages in mallee-heath 295 (Table 3) and hence contributed highly to similarity within ages but little to 296 dissimilarity between ages. The highest contributors to between group dissimilarity 297 included two species of PFTs with predicted declines in richness with time (non- 298 sprouting non-serotinous trees and shrubs) and a change in occurrence of a non- 299 spouting serotinous tree which was not predicted. 300 For mallee vegetation, species cover differed with time since fire, but dispersion 301 did not (Table 2). Pair-wise comparisons indicated that all mallee age groups were 302 distinct (Table 2), but this was not clearly apparent on the ordination (Fig. 1a). 303 Further, there was much lower similarity within ages overall than in mallee-heath 304 (Table 3). Between vegetation age group dissimilarity was greatest between young 305 and both older groups. In mallee, total cover remained similar across all vegetation 306 age categories (Table 4). The strongest contributors to within/between vegetation age 307 group similarity/dissimilarity were all sprouters and among the species with greatest 308 covers overall (Table 3). Cover of these sprouters was high at all times since fire, 309 although contrary to predictions, there was no evidence for differences in response to 310 time since fire between vegetation ages in sprouters occurring in different vegetation 311 strata. 312 Presence/absence ordinations and PERMANOVA results in mallee were similar to 313 those using cover data (Table 2). However, responses of individual species did not 314 always match PFT predictions. Mallee eucalypts, for example, being sprouting 315 serotinous trees, were predicted to be highly resistant to time since fire and thus 316 change little in occurrence between vegetation ages. That two did probably indicates 317 some effects of non-fire age factors (e.g. landform, soils, detectability) on occurrence. 318 319 PFT composition 11 320 Time since fire exerted a significant influence on the PFT composition of both 321 vegetation communities, in similar ways to analyses based on the composition of 322 plant species. In mallee-heath, young sites had greater variability in PFT composition 323 than the other vegetation ages (Table 2). Young sites also clearly differed in position 324 in ordination space, as did old and mature vegetation but to a lesser extent (Table 2; 325 Figure 1b). All time since fire groups differed in PFT composition in pair-wise 326 comparisons (Table 2). 327 Vectors showing the orientation of PFTs largely supported predictions (Table 1). 328 Post-fire ephemerals, and non-sprouting and sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, 329 herbs and graminoids were associated with sites < 10 yrs post-fire (Figure 1b). Non- 330 sprouting serotinous trees and shrubs had greater cover in old and mature vegetation. 331 Sprouting serotinous shrubs and non-sprouting non-serotinous trees appeared less 332 responsive to time since fire, with the orientation of these vectors largely 333 perpendicular with the main division between young and not young vegetation in 334 ordination. Mean similarity within vegetation ages peaked in mature vegetation (mean 335 SIMPER similarity; young = 79.6, mature = 84.6 and old = 82.8), with the greatest 336 contribution to within vegetation age similarity contributed by sprouting non- 337 serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs and graminoids for all vegetation ages, sprouting 338 serotinous shrubs in young vegetation, and non-sprouting serotinous shrubs in mature 339 and old vegetation. Dissimilarity between vegetation ages was greater between young 340 and mature and young and old (both mean SIMPER dissimilarities = 23.5), than 341 between old and mature (dissimilarity = 17.2). 342 Mallee PFT composition also differed with time since fire. Times since fire 343 differed in dispersion, although pair-wise comparisons were inconsistent (Table 2). 344 Given these differences in dispersion, there is uncertainty as to whether the significant 345 PERMANOVA result indicates differences in PFT composition between time since 346 fire groups (Table 2). The pair-wise comparisons indicate that differences in PFT 347 composition do exist, as differences in pair-wise comparisons largely contradict those 348 in dispersion, with young vegetation being different from old and mature, but old and 349 mature vegetation being similar (Table 2). 350 As there was poor distinction of vegetation age groups in ordination (Figure 1b), 351 interpretation of PFT vector orientation is of little value. Within vegetation age group 352 similarity peaked in mature (SIMPER similarity = 79.0) over young (74.4) and old 12 353 (73.2) vegetation. Dissimilarity in PFT composition of vegetation groups largely 354 increased with the age difference between them (mean SIMPER dissimilarity young 355 vs. old = 28.3; young vs. mature = 24.9 and mature vs. old = 23.9). Richness and cover of many of PFTs varied according to vegetation age. In most 356 357 cases, these differences were in the direction predicted through consideration of their 358 response to fire (Table 4). Of the 11 PFTs in mallee-heath, ten responded as predicted 359 to time since fire for richness and ten in cover. One exception was richness in non- 360 sprouting serotinous shrubs, which was not stable. The other was cover in sprouting 361 non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs and graminoids, which had a non-significant 362 decline in cover with age when a decline was predicted. In mallee, PFT response to time since fire matched predictions less well, with 363 364 seven of the ten PFTs represented responding as predicted in richness but only four of 365 ten for cover. The only PFT other than post-fire ephemerals showing a response in 366 richness or cover to time since fire in mallee was non-sprouting serotinous trees, 367 which unexpectedly were most rich in mature vegetation (although pair-wise 368 comparisons were inconsistent; Table 4) and as predicted, increased in cover from 369 young to mature and old. Other PFTs in which a change in richness was predicted, but 370 did not eventuate in mallee, were in non-sprouting non-serotinous shrubs and non- 371 sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs and graminoids. Cover failed to show 372 the expected increase with age in non-sprouting serotinous trees and shrubs, decrease 373 with age in sprouting and non-sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs and 374 graminoids or intermediate peak in non-sprouting non-serotinous trees and shrubs. Of those species with an unknown response to fire, no differences with time since 375 376 fire were recorded in mallee, but more species occurred in young than in mature or 377 old mallee-heath, but without time since fire differences in their overall cover (Table 378 4). 379 380 Discussion 381 Time since fire changes in species and PFT composition 382 Changes in cover and richness of plant function types with time since the last fire 383 were broadly predicted. This supports the utility of PFTs as a framework for 384 predicting and interpreting vegetation change (e.g. McIntyre et al. 1995; Keith et al. 13 385 2007). However, more of the predictions were upheld in mallee-heath than mallee, 386 indicating that careful consideration should be given to the ecological processes 387 underlying vegetation dynamics when applying PFTs to predict community responses 388 to fire, and other disturbances. 389 There are several possible explanations for why mallee-heath showed much greater 390 effects of time since fire than mallee. First, mallee-heath might support an abundant 391 and geographically widespread post-fire ephemeral assemblage, possibly driving the 392 uniqueness of young vegetation. Certainly some post-fire ephemerals were 393 widespread in mallee-heath (e.g. Goodenia incana), but many others were not (e.g. 394 Gyrostemon prostratus). Mallee similarly supported widespread and localised post- 395 fire ephemerals, showed similar changes in post-fire ephemeral cover over time and 396 had only marginally less richness and cover of this PFT overall, suggesting that it was 397 not changes in this PFT that drove overall differences in fire response between the 398 communities. 399 A second, and more plausible explanation, relates to the relative dominance (at 400 least in cover) of the communities by different PFTs at different times since fire, with 401 mallee-heath exhibiting greater change in species and PFT composition than mallee. 402 This illustrates the capacity of the dominant long-lived sprouters in mallee to resist 403 changes with time since fire, and suggests that communities dominated by sprouters 404 can be inherently robust to large variation in times since fire (Keeley 1986). In 405 contrast, the substantial changes in species composition indicate that time since fire 406 has a significant effect on the above-ground vegetation in mallee-heath. This 407 community, dominated by non-sprouting serotinous PFTs when mature (Gosper et al 408 2010; Table 4), may thus be more susceptible to wide variation in times since fire 409 (Keeley 1986; Gosper et al. in press). These PFTs contributed proportionally much 410 less to cover in the years immediately after fire, as these species need to recruit from 411 seed and as such often lag in growth behind post-fire ephemerals and sprouters (Keith 412 et al. 2007), which were largely absent and relatively less dominant in mature 413 vegetation respectively. Mallee, in contrast, being largely dominated in cover by 414 sprouters (particularly serotinous trees and shrubs, non-serotinous shrubs and non- 415 serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs and graminoids), could be expected to have these 416 species also being dominant immediately post-fire as well as in mature vegetation, 14 417 allowing non-fire factors (such as minor variation in soils, drainage etc) to have a 418 greater bearing on post-fire vegetation composition. 419 Old vegetation was more distinct from mature vegetation in mallee-heath than in 420 mallee. There was a decline in cover and/or richness of non-sprouting non-serotinous 421 trees and shrubs, and sprouting non-serotinous shrubs, between mature and old 422 vegetation mallee-heath, but not in mallee. As most representatives in these PFTs 423 have persistent soil-stored seed banks, these changes reflect a transition from above- 424 ground plants to existing in the soil seed bank. Although seed banks are likely to be 425 very long-lived in many cases (Weston 1985), this could suggest a further 426 vulnerability in mallee-heath to long intervals between fires. Additionally, the 427 richness of post-fire ephemerals (non-significant) and sprouting non-serotinous dwarf 428 shrubs, herbs and graminoids in old mallee-heath increased, relative to mature 429 vegetation, which was unpredicted. This suggests that these PFTs have some capacity 430 for expansion in the absence of a fire-cued establishment event to capitalise on newly 431 available resources following the senescence (Bond 1980; Gosper et al. in press) of 432 some components of the vegetation. The most plausible mechanisms for this are 433 through gradual loss of seed dormancy (Orscheg & Enright 2011) and recruitment in 434 gaps for post-fire ephemerals, and vegetative growth and lateral spread to avoid 435 competition among sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs and graminoids 436 (Keith et al. 2007). The capacity for inter-fire recruitment is often overlooked in 437 studies aimed at establishing appropriate fire return intervals for vegetation 438 communities; however it can be significant in some circumstances (Ooi et al. 2006). 439 Contrary to predictions, there were no declines in richness and/or cover in mallee 440 of non-sprouting non-serotinous shrubs, non-sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, 441 herbs and graminoids and sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs and 442 graminoids. The reasons for this are unclear, but as competition with dominant 443 vegetation layers has been cited as a possible mechanism (Keith et al. 2007), it may 444 indicate less intense competition for resources (light, moisture) in lower vegetation 445 layers in mallee. Some support for this possibility is provided by the lower overall 446 cover of vegetation in mallee (Table 4), especially in lower strata in mature and old 447 vegetation (Parsons & Gosper 2011). An additional possibility is that hydraulic 448 redistribution of groundwater by the dominant mallees (Brooksbank et al. 2011) may 449 facilitate, rather than reduce, understory diversity by providing additional soil 15 450 moisture during dry periods. There are no plausible ecological explanations for the 451 unexpectedly lower richness of sprouting serotinous trees (all mallee Eucalyptus) in 452 young mallee. However, richness may have been underestimated in young mallee due 453 to the difficulty in identifying mallee Eucalyptus in the absence of reproductive 454 material. 455 Other statistical and technical problems may have contributed to unexpected 456 responses, and if these could be overcome, may enhance the utility of the PFT 457 approach. Some PFTs (e.g. sprouting non-serotinous trees) had few representatives 458 and contributed little cover; hence there was limited statistical power to detect 459 changes between times since fire. More information on the response to fire of species 460 unable to be classified into a PFT may have improved this situation. Grouping of 461 aligned PFTs, while increasing sample sizes and thus potential statistical power, may 462 have had the contrary effect if trait differences contributed to divergent responses. 463 Variability in functional responses to fire (Vivian et al. 2010) and misclassifications 464 of species based upon this could also have contributed to unexpected responses. 465 Finally, the age of ‘old’ vegetation was greater than 40 yrs (although some sites may 466 have been substantially older than this; Gosper et al. in press). As some mallee 467 Eucalyptus are known to live for centuries (Wellington & Noble 1985), it is possible 468 that predicted changes in species and PFT composition may only become apparent 469 over longer time scales than those sampled. Improved estimation of the age of long- 470 unburnt vegetation (e.g. Clarke et al. 2010) may improve predictive ability. 471 472 Species vs. Plant Functional Type approaches 473 The floristic composition and PFT approaches produced very similar results and 474 implications for management. While having the outcomes replicated at different 475 levels of aggregation adds to the robustness of the conclusions, it also suggests that 476 using a single approach would be more efficient and not substantially less 477 informative. Where explicit time since fire analyses are not feasible, predictions based 478 on PFT composition of the vegetation can be expected to reflect patterns in species 479 composition. In particular, floristic composition is expected to be more sensitive to 480 fire interval in communities dominated by non-sprouters. 16 481 Differences between communities in PFT composition also reflect the influence of 482 factors other than fire. In the communities studied here, both are likely to have similar 483 flammability and, as they occur in a mosaic, are likely to have evolved under similar 484 selective pressure from fire. Major differences in the substrate on which they occur 485 (Beard 1990), however, may have influenced the relative dominance of PFTs. This 486 may introduce complexity and contribute to unpredictability when using PFTs to 487 predict vegetation dynamics with time since fire. 488 489 Management implications 490 Understanding changes in species and PFT composition of vegetation with the 491 passage of time since fire can contribute to improved ecological fire management. 492 Supporting an increasing body of evidence derived from similar Mediterranean- 493 climate shrublands in south-west Western Australia (Maher et al. 2010; Yates & Ladd 494 2010; Gosper et al. in press), our findings indicate substantial changes in composition 495 with increasing time since fire in mallee-heath. However, where significant declines 496 in richness or cover of PFTs occurred, these changes were predictable based on their 497 response to fire, and these PFTs typically had persistent soil-stored seed banks (but 498 this was not the case for all individual species). While knowledge on the longevity of 499 persistent soil-stored seed banks is poor, seed banks of some species can persist for 500 centuries (Weston 1985) and lack of fire does therefore not necessarily reflect a long- 501 term conservation concern even in fragmented landscapes where fire return intervals 502 are much greater than those experienced historically (O’Donnell et al. 2011; Parsons 503 & Gosper 2011). For other species, seed bank longevity is much shorter, and a lack of 504 fire does represent a significant threatening process (Yates & Ladd 2005, 2010). 505 Mallee communities appear more resistant to change due to variation in time since 506 fire, so would appear at a lower priority for fire management interventions based on 507 time since fire (Parsons & Gosper 2011; Gosper et al. in press). 508 509 Acknowledgements 510 This study was jointly funded by the Department of Environment and Conservation’s 511 (DEC) Saving Our Species Initiative and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences (CES). The 512 spatial distribution of sampling was based in part on remote sensing data derived from 17 513 the research of Dr Li Shu, in digital image processing and remote sensing at Fire 514 Management Services, Regional Services Division, DEC. 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Conservation Biology 19: 239–249. 625 Yates, C.J. & Ladd, P.G. 2010. Using population viability analysis to predict the effect of fire on the 626 extinction risk of an endangered shrub Verticordia fimbrilepis subsp. fimbrilepis in a fragmented 627 landscape. Plant Ecology 211: 305-319. 20 628 Table 1. Plant functional types (PFT) and their predicted response to increasing periods since fire. %, percentage of all taxa per habitat allocated 629 to each PFT. Plant functional type PFT code Seed bank Stratum Longevity Long Mallee Mallee-heath Predicted response Example % Example % Richness Cover Eucalyptus scyphocalyx 7.0 Eucalyptus pleurocarpa 2.3 Stable Stable or increase 2.5 Callitris roei 3.9 Stable Increase 0 Persoonia quinquenervis 1.3 Stable Stable or increase Sprouting serotinous trees SStree Canopy Upper Non-sprouting serotinous trees NStree Canopy Upper Long Hakea laurina Sprouting non-serotinous trees SNtree Persistent soil Upper Long None Non-sprouting non-serotinous trees & climbers NNtree Persistent soil Upper Long Exocarpos sparteus 2.1 Grevillea cagiana 3.6 Stable or decrease Intermediate peak Sprouting serotinous shrubs SSshrub Canopy Mid Long Melaleuca lateriflora 3.3 Allocasuarina humilis 6.9 Stable Stable Non-sprouting serotinous shrubs NSshrub Canopy Mid Long Melaleuca rigidifolia 10.7 Banksia pallida 10.2 Stable Increase Sprouting non-serotinous shrubs SNshrub Persistent & transient soil Mid Long Boronia crenulata 9.1 Bossiaea spinosa 8.9 Stable or decrease Stable or decrease Non-sprouting non-serotinous shrubs NNshrub Persistent soil Mid Long Grevillea oligantha 21.0 Gompholobium knightianum 17.4 Decrease Intermediate peak Sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs & graminoids SNherb Persistent & transient soil Low Long Lepidosperma brunonianum 11.5 Amphipogon turbinatus 15.7 Stable or decrease Decrease Non-sprouting non-serotinous dwarf shrubs, herbs & graminoids NNherb Persistent soil Low Long Desmocladus parthenicus 5.3 Stylidium piliferum 6.9 Decrease Decrease Post-fire ephemeral herbs, graminoids & shrubs Ephem Persistent & transient soil Lowmid Short Goodenia concinna 5.3 Gyrostemon prostratus 6.6 Post-fire only Decrease Unknown NA 16.4 - - (> 6 yrs) (≤ 6 yrs) 22.2 21 Total taxa (n) 630 243 305 22 631 Table 2. PERMANOVA results for the effect of time since fire on the species and Plant Functional Type (PFT) composition of mallee-heath and 632 mallee vegetation, and PERMDISP results for differences in dispersion. All mallee heath df 2,45; all mallee df 2,37. Cover = square root 633 transformed cover data; P/A = presence/absence data; Young (Y) = < 10 yrs; Mature (M) = 19-35 yrs; Old (O) = > 40 yrs post-fire. Pair-wise 634 comparisons show t value. ***P ≤ 0.001; ** P ≤ 0.01; * P < 0.05. Pair-wise comparisons PERMANOVA Pseudo-F Y vs. M Y vs. O M vs. O Dispersion (mean±SE) Y Pair-wise comparisons PERMDISP M O F Y vs. M Y vs. O M vs. O Species-level Mallee-heath cover 4.30*** 2.45*** 1.96*** 1.60** 35.8±0.8 33.7±0.9 32.8±0.9 2.59 - - - Mallee cover 1.92*** 1.48** 1.29* 1.35* 46.7±2.0 42.9±0.8 43.8±1.6 2.01 - - - Mallee-heath P/A 3.85*** 2.41*** 1.78** 1.50** 30.4±0.8 27.5±1.1 26.9±1.1 3.10 - - - Mallee P/A 2.48*** 1.67** 1.49* 1.53** 41.6±2.0 39.1±1.1 39.0±1.2 0.95 - - - Mallee-heath cover 8.34*** 3.59*** 2.83*** 1.64** 14.3±0.5 11.7±0.7 10.6±0.6 8.94** 4.10* 2.98* 1.08 Mallee cover 2.21** 1.60* 1.71** 1.10 17.3±1.2 14.6±0.7 18.2±1.3 4.23* 2.11 0.51 2.76** PFT-level 23 635 Table 3. Species contributing most to similarities within and differences between times since fire classes in mallee-heath and mallee, ordered by 636 plant functional type (PFT) (see Table 1). Young (Y) = < 10 yrs; Mature (M) = 19-35 yrs; Old (O) = > 40 yrs. SIMPER scores for the three 637 (cover analyses) or two (presence/absence analyses) species contributing most for each comparison are highlighted. See Table 1 for PFT codes. Figure 1 code Species Mallee-heath cover Eucalyptus pleurocarpa Hakea pandanicarpa subsp. crassifolia Banksia rufa subsp. chelomacarpa Melaleuca villosisepala Banksia erythrocephala var. erythrocephala Beaufortia schaueri Hakea cygna subsp. cygna Beaufortia micrantha var. micrantha Cryptandra leucopogon Neurachne alopecuroidea EUCPLE HAKPANCRA BANRUFCHE MELVIL BANERYERY BEASCH HAKCYGCYG BEAMICMIC CRYLEU NEUALO Mean % within age class similarity/between class dissimilarity Mallee cover EUCFLOFLO Eucalyptus flocktoniae subsp. flocktoniae EUCPHAPHA Eucalyptus phaenophylla subsp. phaenophylla EUCSCY Eucalyptus scyphocalyx MELHAM Melaleuca hamata GAHANC Gahnia ancistrophylla LEPBRU Lepidosperma brunonianum LEPPUB Lepidosperma pubisquameum SPYCOR Spyridium cordatum Mean % within age class similarity/between class dissimilarity Mallee-heath presence/absence Allocasuarina pinaster Hakea pandanicarpa subsp. crassifolia Grevillea cagiana Leptospermum spinescens PFT SStree NStree SSshrub SSshrub NSshrub NSshrub NSshrub NSshrub SNherb SNherb SStree SStree SStree SSshrub SNherb SNherb SNherb NNherb NStree NStree NNtree SSshrub Mean cover ± SE (%) Within age similarity Between age dissimilarity Y M O Y M O 5.5±1.6 1.5±0.3 5.8±1.8 7.5±2.5 1.3±0.3 2.5±1.5 1.3±0.4 14±6.0 1.0±0.4 4.1±1.0 6.9±1.4 9.7±2.0 6.6±1.2 3.9±0.7 8.5±1.6 12±3.8 8.8±1.3 9.5±2.7 12±2.4 2.8±0.5 4.6±1.5 5.3±0.8 5.7±1.2 6.4±1.8 6.7±1.2 10±4.4 14±1.7 25±7.2 0.9±0.1 1.9±0.4 3.2 1.8 3.4 3.3 1.8 0.9 1.0 2.4 0.5 3.2 3.4 4.3 3.6 2.7 3.7 2.1 4.5 2.0 3.4 2.1 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.0 4.1 2.4 6.6 4.8 1.5 2.0 48.2 51.4 4.3 4.0 4.9 12.8 4.2 5.4 5.9 2.4 5.8±3.9 7.1±3.0 5.7±2.1 12±4.3 5.2±2.6 0.9±0.1 4.9±2.9 3.5±1.7 40 87 60 100 6.7±1.8 12±2.9 9.2±2.4 11±1.8 7.3±1.4 1.1±0.5 3.6±1.1 6.9±2.9 4.8±2.0 13±3.8 18±4.3 14±3.7 3.7±1.3 1.3±0.8 6.4±2.4 4.8±2.4 % sites occupied 75 23 100 100 85 31 65 92 Y-M Y-O M-O 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.6 2.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.9 3.6 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.8 1.4 3.5 2.5 0.8 52.2 57.8 55.0 50.9 4.9 6.7 6.2 12.2 8.2 0.7 4.9 2.4 2.6 7.6 15.2 12.9 3.1 1.1 7.5 2.1 2.8 3.5 2.9 2.2 2.5 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.6 3.4 3.7 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.5 2.1 2.5 1.2 1.8 2.8 30.6 38.1 34.8 68.5 69.5 65.2 0.4 2.0 0.9 2.7 1.5 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.1 2.9 0.2 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.3 0 1.3 0.8 24 Banksia rufa subsp. chelomacarpa Banksia erythrocephala var. erythrocephala Banksia violacea Hakea cygna subsp. cygna Baeckea preissiana Olax benthamiana Hibbertia gracilis Lepidosperma brunonianum Lomandra mucronata Neurachne alopecuroidea Stackhousia scoparia SSshrub NSshrub NSshrub NSshrub SNshrub NNshrub SNherb SNherb SNherb SNherb NA Mean % within age class similarity/between class dissimilarity Mallee presence/absence Eucalyptus phenax subsp. phenax SStree Eucalyptus scyphocalyx SStree Melaleuca hamata SSshrub Dodonaea viscosa subsp. spatulata Leucopogon cuneifolius Rinzia communis Gahnia ancistrophylla Lepidosperma brunonianum Lepidosperma pubisquameum Westringia rigida Mean % within age class similarity/between class dissimilarity 638 639 SNshrub NNshrub SNherb SNherb SNherb SNherb NA 100 87 73 67 80 73 100 100 73 100 80 10 60 100 30 0 70 70 90 90 10 100 95 95 100 90 5 95 85 75 90 10 65 75 10 0 20 5 70 95 40 90 65 92 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100 92 15 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.4 2.7 2.7 1.4 2.7 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.2 0 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.2 0.0 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.4 0.0 0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.3 0 0 0.5 0.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 56.0 60.4 60.8 47.8 45.0 41.3 20 100 100 0 2.6 8.3 3.1 4.0 7.2 0.2 8.6 8.6 1.6 1.2 0 0.7 1.1 0 1.7 0.7 0 70 60 100 60 50 100 20 0.5 0 3.7 3.7 7.0 6.5 0 0.2 0 3.3 6.5 1.0 5.7 3.0 4.5 2.7 8.6 2.4 1.6 8.6 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.7 1.9 1.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.3 1.7 38.3 43.6 42.2 62.9 63.2 59.7 25 640 Table 4. Richness and cover of each plant functional type (PFT) between vegetation age classes in mallee and mallee-heath. See Table 1 for PFT 641 codes. Mean ± standard error for each age class per habitat shown, with F-values and significance levels (**** P < 0.0001; ** P < 0.01; * P < 642 0.05) from ANOVA. Different superscripts indicate significant differences in age class according to post-hoc Newman-Keuls tests. Young = < 643 10 yrs post-fire, mature = 18-35 yrs post-fire, old = > 40 yrs. Grey shading indicates differences (or lack thereof) inconsistent with predictions. PFT Mallee-heath PFT richness Young Mature Mallee PFT richness Old F2,45 Young Mature b 4.65±0.3 Old a SStree 1.67±0.2 1.25±0.2 1.69±0.2 1.62 3.40±0.3 NStree 2.40±0.3 2.85±0.2 2.85±0.3 0.84 0.50±0.3 0.45±0.2 SNtree 0.47±0.2 0.65±0.2 0.38±0.1 0.80 0 NNtree 2.47±0.5 2.80±0.3 1.69±0.2 2.41 SSshrub 8.67±0.6 7.80±0.5 8.92±0.5 NSshrub b a 10.8±0.6 a 12.3±0.3 ab 11.6±0.4 Prediction 3.80±0.4 F2,37 ab 4.51* Stable 0.90±0.4 0.87 Stable 0 0 - Stable 0.60±0.2 0.85±0.2 0.40±0.2 1.36 Stable or decrease 1.21 1.70±0.2 1.70±0.2 2.10±0.4 0.88 Stable ab 3.46* 3.10±0.6 3.15±0.6 2.90±0.9 0.03 Stable b 3.70* 4.50±0.3 4.45±0.4 4.40±0.3 0.01 Stable or decrease SNshrub 7.27±0.7 NNshrub 9.53±0.6a 9.85±0.3a 6.92±0.6b 10.4*** 8.50±1.2 6.70±0.5 6.50±0.9 1.70 Decrease 18.7±1.2 a a a 3.23* 6.90±0.7 7.20±0.7 6.20±0.7 0.43 Stable or decrease 4.47±0.5 a 2.92±0.6 b 6.13** 2.20±0.6 1.95±0.3 1.20±0.3 1.62 Decrease 3.07±0.7 a 0.62±0.2 b 16.7*** 2.60±0.7 0.05±0.1 0 - Post-fire only 9.87±0.9 a 5.54±0.6 b 11.1*** 7.90±1.0 6.90±0.5 5.30±1.0 2.56 - SNherb NNherb Ephem NA 5.90±0.4 15.4±0.5 2.60±0.3 b 0.35±0.1 b 6.45±0.3 b 5.31±0.4 17.0±0.9 Mallee-heath PFT % cover Mallee PFT % cover SStree 8.80±1.9 9.45±2.0 7.65±1.8 0.22 30.8±3.7a 42.5±2.7b 48.4±3.1b 6.12** Stable or increase NStree 3.33±0.7a 20.2±2.9b 15.1±3.9b 24.5*** 0.80±0.6 0.90±0.4 5.40±3.4 2.44 Increase SNtree 0.47±0.2 2.15±0.8 0.54±0.2 2.24 0 0 0 - Stable or increase NNtree 4.07±1.1 a 10.2±1.6 b 4.77±1.2 a 7.07** 1.80±1.2 1.55±0.4 2.30±1.5 0.10 Intermediate peak SSshrub 27.4±3.5 22.2±2.1 32.4±4.3 2.67 13.0±4.3 12.0±2.1 16.9±5.0 0.55 Stable 26 644 NSshrub 33.9±6.6c 79.3±4.8b 100.2±9.8a 22.6*** 7.40±1.7 6.75±1.6 7.20±2.8 0.03 Increase SNshrub 14.4±2.0 11.1±1.3 9.77±1.7 1.95 12.5±2.4 9.75±1.0 17.5±4.2 2.55 Stable or decrease NNshrub 16.7±1.8 b 25.5±1.9 a 18.4±2.9 b 5.13** 23.5±6.6 21.9±2.9 25.6±5.2 0.18 Intermediate peak SNherb 41.6±5.2 35.9±2.9 31.1±3.7 1.61 22.7±7.3 20.1±2.3 20.0±4.4 0.01 Decrease NNherb 6.40±1.0 a 2.90±0.3 b 3.00±0.5 b 8.40*** 6.50±2.2 9.45±2.8 5.60±2.3 0.57 Decrease Ephem 6.73±2.1 a 0.35±0.1 b 0.62±0.2 b 16.9*** 3.90±1.4 0.05±0.1 0 - Decrease NA 15.3±2.1 10.5±1.2 12.8±2.4 1.92 19.0±2.5 15.1±2.0 18.1±4.8 0.56 - Total cover 179±7.6b 230±5.7a 236±9.4a 17.3*** 142±10.8 140±5.9 167±16.5 1.80 27 645 Fig. 1. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling ordination of sites in each habitat by (a) floristic cover and (b) cover of plant functional types (PFT), with 646 age class indicated by numbers. MDS on square-root transformed data, 100 runs, random start configurations and three dimensional final solutions, 647 with bubble size showing the 3rd dimension. Vectors are (a) those for the top three species contributing to similarity within and dissimilarity between 648 times since fire (Table 2; also has species names) and (b) PFTs (see Table 1) with a Pearson correlation coefficient > 0.5. 649 Mallee-heath 650 (a) Floristic cover Mallee 3D Stress: 0.18 3D Stress: 0.16 1 1 1 1 1 BEAMICMIC 3 1 1 3 1 MELVIL 33 1 3 2 22 BANRUFCHE EUCPLE 2 HAKPANCRA 2 HAKCYGCYG BANERYERY 2 652 1 EUCSCY 1 3 3 2 EUCFLOFLO 32 BEASCH 22 3 2 2 2 2 Age post-fire 1 = < 10 yrs 2 = 19-35 yrs 3 = > 40 yrs 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 3 2 GAHANC 1 1 2 3EUCPHAPHA2 22 2 1 3 MELHAM LEPBRU 3 3 CRYLEU 2 2 2 651 1 2 2 3 2 LEPPUB 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 SPYCOR 1 3 3NEUALO 3 22 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 1 28 653 654 (b) Cover of PFTs 3D Stress: 0.15 3D Stress: 0.14 1 1 2 1 3 3 1 SSshrub 3 1 1 NSshrub NNherb 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 Ephem 2 2 2 2 1 1 SNherb 1 1 1 2 NStree 3 2 2 2 3 2 656 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 22 SStree 2 2 2 2 2 2 NStree 2 NNshrub 2 SNherb 1 SSshrub 22 Age post-fire 1 = < 10 yrs 2 = 19-35 yrs 3 = > 40 yrs 3 3 2 3 3 2 SNshrub 2 2 3 NNtree 655 1 NSshrub 22 2 2 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 1 3
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