Rural-urban Migration and
Poverty in Kenya:
is Agriculture the Answer?
Maria Sassi
Dep. of Business
University of Pavia
e-mail: [email protected]
Importance of the topic
Rural-urban
migration
Social, economic,
political problems
of major significance
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Agrarian
countries
Theoretical literature (1/2)
Dual economy
Models
Todarian
Frameworks
(1950s-1960s)
(1970s-1980s)
New Economics
of Labour
Migration
(form 1990s)
New Economics of Labour
Migration (2/2)
Internal migration
and
rural development
MIGRATION POLICY GOAL
Accommodate migration
flows while preventing
the widening of rural
and urban imbalaces
Remittances allocation
in rural areas
Rural development
policies for poor hhs
without migrants
Agricultural
policies
Focus of the analysis
Kenya
- Rural migrant: 70% of urban
labour force;
-Specific policy interventions;
-Poverty: 54% & 80% in rural areas.
Agriculture
-The “growth sector” (24% GDP,
53% exports; 62% labour force);
-Increase in productivity.
Tech. efficiency ch.
CGE approach
2003 SAM
Impact of migration policies
on income, output & employment
in both urban and rural areas &
sectors SIMULTANEOUSLY
SAM revision
Basic SAM
50 activities and
commodities
Labour factor:
-Skilled;
-Semi-skilled
-Unskilled;
RevisedSAM
-Agriculture;
-Food industry;
-Industry others;
-Service sector;
-Public Administration, Health
& Education
-Rural Slkilled, Semi-skilled
and Unskilled;
-Urban Slkilled, Semi-skilled
and Unskilled
(Labour force survey,
Central Bureau of Statistics)
Simulations
10% rural skilled to urban skilled
Rural-urban
migration
10% rural semiskilled to urban
semiskilled
10% rural unskilled to urban
unskilled
Technical
efficiency change
10% increase in efficiency of
agricultural production function
50% increase in intermediate
input specific efficiency in
agricultural production function
(agricultural, food industry, other
industry and service inputs)
Rural - urban migration
No significant impact
10% rural
migration:
Impact on
income
(% change)
Households by
expenditure
decile
(I=low; X=high)
Technical efficiency change
10% increase in efficiency of
agricultural production function
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Increase
Impact on income - current prices
(%)in
rich-poor
disparities
7
6
5
4
Rural
3
Urban
2
1
II
de
ci
le
V
III
de
ci
le
IX
de
ci
le
X
de
ci
le
le
V
Id
ec
i
V
de
ci
le
le
V
de
ci
IV
de
ci
le
III
le
de
ci
II
Id
ec
ile
0
Households by expenditure decile - (I=low; X=high)
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on consumption – constant prices (%)
8
7
6
5
Rural
4
Urban
3
2
1
e
cil
de
X
de
c
ile
le
IX
ci
de
VI
II
ec
ile
VI
Id
de
c
ile
e
VI
V
de
cil
ile
de
c
IV
cil
e
de
III
ec
ile
II
d
Id
ec
ile
0
Share of households
consumption by product
3.8
35
30
25
20
-5.3
15
1.7
Rural households
1.6
10
5.3
5
Public
Administration,
Health &
Education
Service Sector
Industry others
Food Industry
Agriculture
0
Urban households
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on macroeconomic indicators (%)
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on gross product at factor costs (%)
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on exports (%)
10% increase in efficiency of agricultural production function
Impact on wages (%)
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
rural
4.000
urban
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
Skilled labour
Semi skilled labour
Unskilled labour
Technical efficiency change
50% increase in
intermediate input specific
efficiency in agricultural
production function
Impact on income (% change)
Households by expenditure decile
(I=low; X=high)
le
de
ci
le
de
cil
e
de
ci
e
le
de
cil
de
ci
ec
ile
le
VI
Id
ec
ile
VI
II
de
cil
e
IX
de
ci
le
X
de
cil
e
de
ci
0,00
VI
0,00
le
de
cil
e
1,00
V
1,00
e
Urban
de
ci
Industry other inputs
IV
Rural
de
cil
4,00
III
5,00
le
6,00
de
ci
2,00
de
ci
III
le
de
cil
e
IV
de
ci
le
V
de
cil
e
VI
de
ci
le
VI
Id
ec
ile
VI
II
de
cil
e
IX
de
ci
le
X
de
cil
e
II
ec
ile
Urban
II
3,00
Id
Rural
ec
ile
de
ci
le
de
cil
e
de
ci
e
le
de
cil
de
ci
ec
ile
le
VI
Id
ec
ile
VI
II
de
cil
e
IX
de
ci
le
X
de
cil
e
VI
V
IV
III
II
Id
2,00
1,80
1,60
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
Id
VI
Id
ec
ile
VI
II
de
cil
e
IX
de
ci
le
X
de
cil
e
VI
V
IV
III
II
Id
Agricultural inputs
Food industry inputs
0,45
0,40
0,35
0,30
0,25
0,20
0,15
0,10
0,05
0,00
Rural
Urban
Service inputs
8,00
7,00
6,00
5,00
4,00
Rural
3,00
Urban
2,00
Impact on macroeconomic indicators
- current prices (% change)
Impact on gross product at
factor costs - current prices (% change)
10% increase in intermediate service input efficiency in agricultural
production function
Impact on wages (%)
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
Rural
4.000
Urban
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
Skilled labour
Semi skilled labour
Unskilled labour
Conclusions (1/3)
Role of rural-urban
migration
Macro
analysis
No impact on income
and development
integration
Micro
analysis
Conclusions (2/3)
Support to overall
economc development
Key role of
thechnical progres
Increase in
households welfare
Rich-poor and
rural-urban
inequalities?
Conclusions (3/3)
Reduction in
agricultural prices
Farmers return
& livelihoods
Liberalization &
Price fluctuations
Withdrawl from
agriculture
Theoretical literature (1/3)
Dual economy
models
Todarian
frameworks
New Economics
of labour
migration
- Initial stage of development;
- Intensive agricultural economy;
- Lack of capital & surplus of
agricultural labour the needed
manpower for industrialization.
Rural urban migration facilitation
to favour economic take-off
Theoretical literature (1/4)
Dual economy
models
- Understanding of the reasons
of urban unemployment and its
link with rural-urban migration
Todarian
frameworks
- Migration flows restrictions;
- Wage subsidies
New Economics
of Labour
Migration
Urban wage
subsidies
Compensations
to rural areas
Job creation
in rural areas
& inequalities
H-T
F.
Uniform wage
subsidies
B-S; B
Theoretical literature (1/5)
Dual economy
models
Todarian
frameworks
New Economics
of Labour
Migration
- Who, when and
how to migrate
Support to R-U migration
Increasing efficiency in
job matches
- Internal migration
and rural
development
-Remittancies;
-Policies for rural
development.
Migration policies in Kenya
a. Colonial
period
b. Post-colonial
period
Kenyatta
presidency
(1963-1979)
Moi presidency
(1979-2002)
Kibaki
presidency
(from 2002)