UKCS Oil and Gas Production Projections
The charts and tables below show the OGA's latest projections of UK Continental Shelf (UKCS)
crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL) and natural gas production for the period 2017 to 2022. The
projections for gas relate to net UKCS production available for sale.
The current (February 2017) projections are based on detailed field-by-field data provided to the
OGA by the current operators of each field in early 2017. We have applied very significant
negative contingencies to the aggregate figures. The extent of these contingencies reflect past
experience of forecasting deviations; historically, industry forecasts have tended to over-predict
production significantly in the short and medium term, reflecting asymmetric upside and
downside risks. The contingencies also include a small notional allowance for production from
recently discovered fields awaiting appraisal and as-yet-undiscovered fields that might be found
and brought into production in this timeframe.
While central projections of oil and gas production are shown in the chart, the table on page 3
illustrates a (wide) range of possible outcomes because the future rate of production is
dependent on a number of different factors including the level of investment and the success of
further exploration. Operators continue to find it difficult to predict production accurately as older
fields mature and their reliability reduces. A significant share of future oil and gas production is
expected to come from new fields and major projects in existing fields compounding the difficulty
of making accurate forecasts given the risks of project slippage and uncertain start-up profiles.
The central projections are therefore our best estimates rather than a definitive prediction
of future production of oil and gas from the UKCS.
The chart below shows actual production levels in recent years and our current and previous
(October 2016) projections; the colour-coded scales are different for oil (left-hand Y-axis) and
gas (right-hand Y-axis) while the actual levels of oil and gas production are shown in lighter
shades than the projected levels.
Production of both oil and gas during late 2016 was slightly higher than expected in October. The
projections for oil and gas have been revised upwards reflecting this and the continuing
UKCS OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS
robustness of industry forecasts for later years. After 2022, oil and gas production are both
assumed to decline at 5% a year as illustrated in the table on page 4 below.
The charts below compare the current and previous central projections with (as dashed lines) the
ranges published here (on page 3) and previously.
2 of 4
UKCS OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS
Indicative Ranges of Production Projections
a) Oil (including NGLs)
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
million tonnes
40 40 35 35 35 30 -
55
55
55
55
55
55
million tonnes
2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 -
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.2
b) Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
c) Gas
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
billion cubic metres
30 - 45
25 - 45
25 - 45
20 - 45
20 - 40
20 - 40
a) Production of oil (including NGLs) in 2016 was 47.4 million tonnes
b) Production of NGLs in 2016 was 3.1 million tonnes
c) Net production of gas in 2016 was c38.4 bcm
Mike Earp
Oil and Gas Authority (OGA)
tel +44 (0)3000 671604
e-mail [email protected]
February 2017
3 of 4
UK Oil and Net Gas Production and Demand (all level figures in million tonnes of oil equivalent)
Net Oil Oil exports
Oil
Oil
Oil Exports/ as per cent
import
Production Demand (Imports) of demand dependency
Net Gas Gas exports
Gas
Net Gas Net Gas Exports/ as per cent
import
Production Demand (Imports) of demand dependency
Net Oil & Gas
Oil &
Oil & Oil & Gas
exports
Oil & Gas
Net Gas Net Gas Exports/ as per cent
import
Production Demand (Imports) of demand dependency
1998
1999
2000
145
150
138
91
90
89
54
61
49
60%
68%
55%
85
94
103
82
88
91
2
6
12
3%
6%
13%
230
244
241
173
178
180
57
66
61
33%
37%
34%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
128
127
116
105
93
88
87
87
89
92
40
40
29
15
1
46%
47%
34%
17%
1%
99
97
96
90
82
90
88
89
91
89
10
9
8
(1)
(7)
11%
10%
9%
1%
8%
227
224
213
194
175
177
175
176
180
180
50
49
37
14
(5)
28%
28%
21%
8%
3%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
84
84
79
75
69
91
88
86
83
81
(7)
(4)
(8)
(8)
(12)
7%
5%
9%
10%
15%
74
67
64
54
52
84
86
89
82
89
(10)
(19)
(24)
(27)
(37)
12%
22%
27%
33%
42%
158
151
143
129
121
175
173
175
164
170
(17)
(23)
(32)
(35)
(49)
10%
13%
18%
21%
29%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
57
49
44
44
50
79
77
76
75
77
(22)
(28)
(31)
(32)
(27)
28%
37%
41%
42%
36%
41
35
33
33
35
74
70
69
63
64
(33)
(35)
(37)
(30)
(29)
45%
50%
53%
48%
45%
98
84
77
77
85
153
147
145
138
141
(55)
(63)
(68)
(62)
(56)
36%
43%
47%
45%
40%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
52
52
52
52
49
76
76
75
75
74
(24)
(24)
(23)
(23)
(24)
32%
31%
31%
30%
33%
37
35
33
31
30
77
72
70
68
66
(40)
(37)
(37)
(36)
(36)
52%
52%
53%
54%
55%
89
87
85
83
79
153
148
145
142
140
(64)
(61)
(60)
(59)
(61)
42%
41%
41%
42%
43%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
47
44
42
40
38
73
73
73
73
73
(27)
(29)
(31)
(33)
(35)
36%
39%
42%
45%
48%
28
27
26
24
23
67
68
67
69
66
(38)
(41)
(42)
(44)
(43)
58%
60%
62%
65%
65%
75
71
68
64
61
140
141
140
142
139
(65)
(70)
(73)
(77)
(77)
46%
49%
52%
55%
56%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
36
34
33
31
30
73
73
73
73
73
(37)
(38)
(40)
(42)
(43)
50%
53%
55%
57%
59%
22
21
20
19
18
65
64
61
61
61
(43)
(43)
(41)
(42)
(43)
66%
67%
68%
69%
71%
58
55
53
50
47
137
137
134
134
134
(79)
(81)
(82)
(84)
(86)
58%
60%
61%
63%
65%
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
28
27
25
24
23
73
73
73
74
74
(45)
(46)
(48)
(49)
(51)
61%
64%
65%
67%
69%
17
16
15
15
14
60
59
58
58
58
(43)
(43)
(43)
(44)
(44)
71%
73%
74%
75%
76%
45
43
41
39
37
132
132
131
132
132
(87)
(89)
(91)
(93)
(95)
66%
68%
69%
71%
72%
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Notes:
Oil Demand includes Bunkers (estimated at 2.6 mtoe from 2016 onwards); Net Gas Production and Demand exclude oil and gas producers' own use.
Both actual and projected Net Exports (Imports), and thus Import Dependency, are as implied by the difference between UK production and UK demand.
The production projections for 2017–2022 are consistent with those published by the OGA at https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/data-centre/data-downloads-and-publications/production-projections/ .
After 2022, oil production is assumed to decline at 5% pa and gas production to decline at 5% pa.
The demand projections for 2016–2035 are consistent with the Reference Scenario in "Updated Energy and Emissions Projections: 2016" published by BEIS (at
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2016) in March 2017.