Development and validation of a
hybrid physical-ecological model for
Narragansett Bay: EcoGEM.
Jamie Vaudrey
Department of Marine Sciences, Uconn
Manager’s Meeting, URI
May 3, 2012
Acknowledgements
funded by NOAA CHRP 2005, 2011
collaborators
Christelle Balt
Deanna Bergondo, PI
Mark Brush, PI
Daniel Codiga, PI
Christopher Deacutis, PI
Wally Fulweiler
Sue Kiernan, PI
Chris Kincaid, PI
James Kremer, PI
Jason Krumholz
Nicole LaSota
David Murray
Scott Nixon, PI
Candace Oviatt, lead-PI
Anna Pfeiffer-Herbert
Warren Prell, PI
Edwin Requintina Sr.
Leslie Smith
Heather Stoffel
David Ullman, PI
Jamie Vaudrey
15 Boxes
Surface Element
Bottom Element
Processes of the model
& basis for formulations:
Temp, Light,
Boundary Conditions
Chl, N, P, Salinity
O2 coupled
stoichiometrically
Productivity
BZI
Phytoplankton
Atmospheric
deposition
Photic zone
heterotrophy
N
N P
ƒ(Chl2d)
Land-use
Surface layer
DO 2
Flux to
bottom
ƒ[Chl]
.
Benthic
heterotrophy
ƒ(OM,T)
mixing
--------flushing
Deep layer
Benthic C
NP
Physics
---------
Denitrification
%
Bottom
sediment
.
only 17 constants and coefficients
River 1 = Moshassuck +
Woonasquatucket
River 7 = Fields Point WWTF +
E. Providence WWTF
River 2 = Blackstone + Ten Mile + Bucklin Point WWTF
River 6 = Palmer
River 4 = Taunton + (est. Mt.
Hope and Sakkonet)
River 3 = Pawtuxet
River 5 = Hunt
Fraction of Flow Attributed
to Each Source
1.0
Woonasquatucket River
Moshassuck River
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan
1.2
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2006
DIN (mg/L)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2006
Date vs Riv 1 Moshassuck
Date vs Riv 1 Woonasquatucket
Date vs Moshassuck River @ Mill Street Bridge
Date vs Woonasquatucket River @ Valley Street
Date vs River 1 = Moshassuck + Woonasquatucket
Nov
Dec
Nutrient Multipliers
Control Nutrient Input by Day
Example of Model Scenario
Phosphorous
0.1
gP / m3
ppt
Box2-- blue = surface red = bottom
Salt
40
20
0
J/06
A/06
J/06
0.05
0
J/06
O/06
A/06
Phytoplankton
gC / m2
gC / m3
40
0.5
A/06
J/06
20
0
J/06
O/06
A/06
Nitrogen
O/06
20
gO / m3
0.5
2
gN / m3
J/06
Oxygen
1
0
J/06
O/06
Benthic C
1
0
J/06
J/06
A/06
J/06
10
0
J/06
O/06
days
bold lines = 80% reduction in N and P input
A/06
J/06
O/06
Future Work
• add in 2007
• improve model interface
• provide more detailed analysis
on the skill of the model
• conduct demonstration scenarios
n = 2301
n = 98
n = 1271
n = 179
n = 164
1.0
maximum
0.9
ROC Score
0.8
skilled
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
unskilled
0.2
0.1
0.0
oxygen, buoy
oxygen, CTD
phyto, buoy
N
P
Wilmott Skill
6
1
0.8
WS (unitless)
8
Median R
1
0.8
10
r (unitless)
Phyto (ug/L)
12
Pearsons Correlation Coefficient
1
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.6
fraction
Root Mean Square Error (lower is better)
14
0.4
4
0.2
0
0
0
10
20
element number
Root Mean Square Error (lower is better)
0.35
0.3
0
Pearsons Correlation Coefficient
1
-1
10
20
element number
0.4
Median R
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.05
0
0
0
10
20
element number
0
10
20
element number
0
-0.5
0.2
0
10
eleme
1
0.8
0.6
0
Wilmott Skill
WS (unitless)
0.15
0
1
0.8
r (unitless)
N (mg/L)
0
10
20
element number
0.25
0.2
-0.5
0.2
fraction
2
0
0
-1
10
20
element number
0
10
eleme
Phytoplankton - buoy data
Root Mean Square Error (lower is better)
0.045
Pearsons Correlation Coefficient
1
Wilmott Skill
Median
1
1
0.04
0.8
0.035
0.8
0.5
0.02
0.6
0.4
0.015
0.01
0.2
0.6
fraction
0.025
WS (unitless)
r (unitless)
P (mg/L)
0.03
0.4
0
-0.5
0.2
0.005
0
Nitrogen
0
10
20
element number
0
0
10
20
element number
0
0
10
20
element number
-1
0
10
eleme
Oxygen - buoy data
Root Mean Square Error (lower is better) Pearsons Correlation Coefficient
2.5
1
0.5
0
0.4
0.2
0
0
10
20
element number
0
0
10
20
element number
0.5
0
0.4
0.2
0
10
20
element number
0
-1
10
20
element number
ele
Media
1
0.5
0.6
0.4
10
20
element number
0
0
-0.5
0.2
0
0
Wilmott Skill
WS (unitless)
r (unitless)
Oxygen (mg/L)
1
0
0.8
0.6
0
-0.5
1
0.8
1.5
0.4
0.2
Oxygen - CTD areal avg.
Root Mean Square Error (lower is better) Pearsons Correlation Coefficient
2.5
1
2
0.6
fraction
1
0.6
0.5
fraction
1.5
Media
1
0.8
WS (unitless)
0.8
r (unitless)
Oxygen (mg/L)
2
Wilmott Skill
1
0
10
20
element number
-1
0
ele
Box1-- blue = surface red = bottom
Salt
40
Phosphorous
gP / m
ppt
3
0.2
20
0
J/06
A/06
J/06
0.1
0
J/06
O/06
A/06
Phytoplankton
2
gC / m
3
gC / m
30
2
1
A/06
J/06
20
10
0
J/06
O/06
A/06
Nitrogen
O/06
3
20
gO2 / m
3
gN / m
J/06
Oxygen
1.5
1
0.5
0
J/06
O/06
Benthic C
3
0
J/06
J/06
A/06
J/06
10
0
J/06
O/06
days
A/06
J/06
O/06