Inclusion of NOE in the Dutch
National Accounts
UNECE, 6-9 May 2014, Geneva
Content
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Background
Scope
Methodology
Results
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Background
– NA need to be exhaustive
– Starting the 2010 ESA revision illegal activities are
included
– Other non-observed economic activities were already
covered in the Dutch National Accounts
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Non-observed economy
Scope is arbitrary.
Five sub-categories:
1. Underground production
2. Illegal production
3. Informal sector production
4. Household production for own final use
5. Production missed due to deficiencies in data collection
program
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Methodology
For underground and white spots built upon the existing
methodology, estimates for illegal are completely new after
revision.
Activity specific method. Based upon many ad hoc research
findings and additional assumptions.
During the integration phase corrected for double counting.
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Methodology – example prostitution
The consumption is estimated using:
- Number of prostitutes
- Number of working weeks a year
- Average price per visit
- Number of clients per week
-> 25.000 in 1999
-> 40
-> € 50 in 2008
-> 20
Consumption in 1995 = 520 mln euros
Consumption in 2013 = 869 mln euros
Adjustements are made for imports and exports, and estimates
for intermediate use are calculated following previous methods.
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Mln euro
Results – prostitution activities
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1995
Output
2000
Intermediate use
2005
2010
Value added (current prices)
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Results - sensitivity
Sensitivity number of prostitutes
Value added ( mln euros)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1995
2000
1999 = 20.000
2005
1999 = 25.000
2010
1999 = 30.000
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Results
Table 4.1 Estimates for various underground activities, 2010
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Results
Table 4.3 Estimates white spots, 2010
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Results – Effects on GVA, 2010
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Discussion and conclusions
– NOE is hidden by nature, resulting estimates are subject
to significant uncertainty.
– Only estimates for the most important activities
– Challenging to construct time series
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Thank you
Arjan Bruil
Statistics Netherlands
[email protected]
+3170 337 4531
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