‘Creative Industries’ – An Incubator for Jobs and Growth? Empirical evidence from a case study for Vienna Peter Mayerhofer, Peter Huber Paper presented at the 14th International Conference of the ACEI, Vienna, 6-9 July 2006 Abstract The paper deals with job effects and firm dynamics in Vienna's Creative Industries. The analysis is based on a large individual longitudinal matched employer-employee data set for Austria, which allows tracking the job careers of 2.4 Mio employees in 400,000 firms over a decade. We analyse employment evolutions in the different parts of the value added chain in Vienna's CI and document the heterogeneity of the sector in terms of job and worker flows, firm growth as well as entry/exit. The results confirm the function of Creative Industries as incubator for firms and jobs, but question the notion of a homogeneous "cluster" Creative Industries in Vienna. – 2 – 1. Background Creative industries as the heterogeneous part of the economy that mass-produces goods and services with artistic content (Towse, 2003) have shifted into the focus of interest of cultural and economic policy in recent decades. Enabled by technological advances (sound recording, film/video, internet, digitalisation), forms of mass (re)production and commercialisation of artistic/cultural content were at first assessed sceptically in cultural policy discourse (e.g. Adorno – Horkheimer, 1977). Since the early nineties at the latest, the cultural pessimists’ postulation of a contrast between advanced and popular culture as well as art and commerce has increasingly been questioned and synergies between art production proper and downstream areas of distribution and reproduction started being identified. Authors such as Towse (2001, 2003) or Cowen (1998) consider market mechanisms as allies for art production and distribution. From an economic perspective the importance of Creative Industries (in the following referred to as CI) is substantiated on the one hand by the function of creativity and new ideas as production factors in the information society. Similarly to technological innovations, creative outputs (as information goods and services) are seen as important locational factors of highly advanced knowledge societies. A region’s creative potential is considered of decisive importance for the competitiveness of new activities (Howkins, 2001) or entire regions (Florida, 2002). In addition, positive effects of investments in creative areas on quality of life, identity building and attractiveness in international tourism markets are mentioned (European Commission, 1998). More importantly, economic policy hopes are pinned in particular on the supposedly high growth and employment potentials of CI, which are assumed for the following reasons (European Commission, 1998; UNCTAD, 2004): On the final demand side, with incomes increasing, the high income elasticity of products with cultural content fosters a favourable development of CI. Changes in consumper preferences towards “experience” and “convenience” also promote sales. Further, with increasing (voluntary and involuntary) free time, expenditure on leisure, entertainment and culture increases. Changes in the age structure of the population and increasingly better education have a similar effect. As for intermediate consumption, the necessity of increased product differentiation resulting from saturated markets creates demand for creative products. Further, with the tertiary sector increasingly applying essential elements of the CI’s output (such as – 3 – design, advertising, marketing), the increasing service orientation of developed economies supports the demand for relevant products and services. On the supply side the dynamics of CI is promoted by technological innovations (such as digital storage of sounds and images as computer files, their copying and reproduction on the computer and their distribution via the internet), as they enable new forms of product sales and reduce the costs of distribution networks. It was in the late nineties and early two-thousands in particular that all these influences contributed to the remarkable growth dynamics of creative industries at national and international level1). For the next years, recent studies (PriceWaterhouseCoopers, 2003, quoted in UNCTAD, 2004) forecast an annual growth of global value added of around 10 percent in relevant areas. Against this background and considering that the activities pertaining to creative industries benefit to a particularly high degree from locational advantages of urban areas and are therefore concentrated in large cities (Pratt, 1997; DCMS, 2001; Wu, 2004), Vienna’s economic policy endeavours to promote the development of creative industries as a cluster of the regional economy (City of Vienna, 2004). In view of considerable challenges in the regional labour market (Huber – Mayerhofer, 2005)2 the focus of interest is on the contribution of CI to employment dynamics. The present paper deals with the question whether CI really played their supposed role as a job incubator for Vienna during the past decade. On the basis of a highly disaggregated data set on dependent employment relationships in Vienna, the employment dynamics in Viennese CI since Austria’s EU accession in the mid-90s is reconstructed. In the course of this, the traditional analysis of employment stocks is extended by a detailed identification of flow data in the relevant labour market. 1) According to an analysis established by the European Economic and Social Committee (quoted in Unctad, 2004) CI have shown growth rates of 5 to 20 percent in the OECD countries in recent years. In Austria the number of firms in the core area of CI increased by a third in 1995-2000 and the number of dependent employees rose by 29 percent. Value added increased by 41 percent in the same period (KMU-Forschung Austria – IKM, 2003). 2) Vienna’s economic growth, which is perfectly satisfactory in comparison with other European cities, goes hand in hand with increased requirements for modernisation and rationalisation at firm level. The requirements result from Vienna’s geographical location at “Europe’s economic dividing line” to new competitors with considerable cost advantages and are reflected by fast structural change and high productivity growth. Though favourable in terms of competition, this productivity gain has its drawback in a low employment intensity of regional economic growth. Thus, employment in Vienna has hardly increased since 1995 despite a markedly growing economy. Vienna has meanwhile largely lost its excellent labour market position compared with other European cities (unemployment rate 2003: 7.7 percent, EU15: 8.1 percent). – 4 – 2. Framework of analysis and data set There is no analytically deduced and generally accepted definition to serve as a basis of statistical analyses of CI3). Empirical works supplement the narrow concept of “cultural industries” by individual affirmative fields of technology (multimedia, software etc.), align the considered sectors around the (of course more vague) concept of “creativity” as main input factor (e.g. DCMS, 1998) or solve the problem of definition by referring to the importance of “intellectual property” or “copyright” (e.g. Howkins, 2001). The present analysis is based on the “Vienna definition” of creative industries developed by Ratzenböck et al. (2004)4, which tries to comprehensively represent the entire value added chain of creative industries, including both the creative core areas as well as upstream and downstream sectors. Based on this and on contributions by Pratt (1997, 2004) CI are understood as an interconnected production system, with activities of artistic creation interacting with activities of reproduction and mass distribution and, in the ideal case, stimulating each other. Thereby a highly complex and heterogeneous network of activities is depicted, which is nevertheless considered as an entity in view of assumed interconnections and common development logics. A subdivision of the entire area by the sectors involved (architecture, the audiovisual sector, fine arts etc.) and by the position in the value added chain (content origination, reproduction, exchange) allows for analyses also in view of production logics. A considerable problem in implementing such an approach, which is essentially “transversal” to the sector categories of administrative statistics, is the construction of a convincing data set. The necessity to clearly draw the lines between the individual activities within the CI value added chain requires working at a highly disaggregated sector level. Sources of current production statistics in manufacturing and services as well as the bulk of periodical general censuses are excluded for reasons of survey methods and/or data protection. Therefore, our analysis is based on the individual data set of the Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions, which has been available in an anonymised form for the years since 1995. Entries in this data set are based on the obligatory registration of employment relationships upon the start of employment. Along with the fact of employment and the point of time of its beginning and end, a series of characteristics of the employment relationship and the employee and employer involved are registered. This enables an analysis by income and social security arrangements pertaining to the employment relationship, the employee’s age and gender and the sector and size of the employer’s firm. The sectoral classification of the latter is reliably coded down to the 4-digit level of NACE. As a result, a clear delineation of CI according to the “Vienna definition” (Ratzenböck et al., 2004) is possible. 3) For the development of the term CI cf. Towse (2001,2003), Brecknock (2004); Ratzenböck et al. (2004) or Hromatka (2005). 4) For the sectoral categorisation in this definition cf. table A1 in the annex. – 5 – The extent of the information content – that allows, after all, tracking the job careers of around 2.4 million employees in some 400,000 firms annually over almost a decade – makes this data set rather resource-intensive in handling and evaluation. In addition, on account of its being a primarily administrative (and not a statistical) instrument of information it requires laborious preparation (for details, see Huber – Mayerhofer, 2005). However, the workload is justified by the results it can provide. For example, the data set allows for a highly disaggregated view of the development of dependent employment in CI. In addition, the possibility to combine employer-related information (e.g. firm size or sector) with personrelated information at an individual level reveals information on the relations between the specific labour market of CI and its regional firm population. However, despite its size, the data set applied does not allow a complete registration of all persons working in the CI sector in Vienna. It takes into account all dependent employment relationships (full-time and part-time), including those below the marginal earnings threshold, and free services contracts and work contracts that are subject to registration with social security. The data set lacks sufficient detailed information on the employment relationships of civil servants and railway employees, making a complete representation of dependent employment impossible. On account of this, some few areas (e.g. museums, libraries) are under-reported, which influences the overall results only slightly, though. An essential restriction, however, is the analysis’ exclusive focus on dependent employment relationships, while omitting the self-employed and the free professions. Thus, types of independent, project-related work and freelancing in a “grey area” (i.e. without social security) are not registered5. Based on information from census data, this should result in an under-reporting of the entire CI employment amounting to about one fifth (Mayerhofer – Huber, 2005). Overall, therefore, our data set does not, despite its size, completely depict all types of employment in Vienna’s CI. For dependent employment, however, which continues to be the prevailing employment form and main target of employment policy, it is a unique source of information and can therefore serve as a basis for a general, data-supported estimation of the role of CI as job incubator. 3. The importance of creative industries in Vienna’s employment system: Regional strengths in all areas A count of the employment relationships registered with the Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions gives an idea of the CI’s importance as a regional employer (table 1). 5) However, the bulk of freelance work should be included in the data set through the consideration of free service contracts and work contracts. – 6 – Table 1: Dependent employment in Vienna’s creative industries Total Standard employment Employment below marginal earnings threshold Free service contracts, work contracts Free service contracts and work contracts below marginal earnings treshold Content Origination Reproduction Exchange Creative Industries total Absolute 38,186 19,281 49,481 106,949 Shares of Vienna in % 5.5 2.8 7.2 15.5 Absolute 32,189 18,598 43,086 93,872 Shares of Vienna in % 5.2 3.0 7.0 15.2 Absolute 2,542 388 3,796 6,726 Shares of Vienna in % 5.5 0.8 8.2 14.5 Absolute 1,981 223 1,129 3,332 Shares of Vienna in % 18.6 2.1 10.6 31.2 Absolute 1,475 72 1,471 3,018 Shares of Vienna in % 11.2 0.5 11.2 22.9 Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. According to the latter, about 107,000 dependently employed persons belong to the Viennese CI’s “production system” – as broadly outlined by the “Vienna definition” – in 2003, representing about 15.5 percent of all employment relationships subject to social security contributions in Vienna. Of these, almost 93,900 (87.8 percent) are full- or part-time employments requiring full social insurance and thereby offer comprehensive coverage by social security. “Atypical” employment relationships in Viennese CI are only slightly overrepresented. This is not least due to the comparably small importance of employment relationships below the marginal earnings threshold in the reproducing areas of CI (reproduction), where standard employment relationships are clearly prevailing. Free service contracts and work contracts, in contrast, are comparably frequent in CI: Slightly less than one third of this kind of employment in Vienna can be found in CI, in particular in content origination and exchange. In the value added chain, activities of distribution of artistic/creative content (exchange, 42.2 percent) and content production proper (content, 35,3 percent) play a decisively greater role than reproduction in Vienna’s regional employment (figure 1). This can be interpreted as a sign of the frequently deplored weakness of the processing of art- and culture-like output. This weakness, in turn, has been attributed to the predominance of small-scale, undercapitalised businesses as well as to deficits in the processing know-how in many areas (above all light music, film business, literature and publishing, fine arts, fashion, graphic arts and design) (Ratzenböck et al., 2004). The unbalanced distribution of value added stages can be attributed not least to the scarcity of locational advantages for industrial production in large – 7 – cities, a fact that has led to a marked tertiarisation of Vienna’s employment structure in recent decades (Huber – Mayerhofer, 2005). Figure 1: Composition of Vienna’s creative industries Employment shares in percent, 2003 By sector Software, multimedia, internet 19,3% Advertising 5,2% By value added stage Architecture 7,6% Audivisual sector 19,1% Fine arts 2,3% Music 7,8% Museums, libraries 6,3% Literature, publishing, print media 14,4% Content Origination 35,3% Exchange 42,2% Performing arts and entertainment 3,1% Graphic arts, fashion, design, photography 14,8% Reproduction 22,5% Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations Still, the range of sectors within Vienna’s CI is dominated by technology-oriented areas, with software/multimedia/internet and the audiovisual sector together responsible for almost 40 percent of jobs in Viennese CI. Along with these, the fields of literature/publishing/print media and graphic arts/fashion/design, each making up about 14 percent of CI jobs, are important employers in the city economy. The remaining groups are comparably small, with shares between 2 percent (fine and performing arts) and 8 percent (music, architecture). From a regional perspective, the data clearly confirm Vienna’s central role in Austria’s creative industries: While in Vienna approximately 15.5 percent of all dependently employed persons and 15.2 percent of all those in standard employment work in the CI sector, the corresponding Austria-wide percentage is only 8.6 percent. This can partly be explained by the regional concentration of relevant institutions in Vienna as the capital of Austria, but also suggests that Vienna as “city of culture” has a particularly high creative potential in a nationwide comparison. What strikes in this context is that Vienna’s (national) specialisation on activities of creative industries can be seen both at all stages of the value added chain as well as practically all related sectors, as the location quotient reveals (figure 2). The location quotient for the total of creative industries has been calculated to be 175.8. This means that in relative terms employees in creative industries can be found about ¾ more often in Vienna than in Austria. High regional concentrations can be observed in particular in – 8 – the audiovisual sector, museums/libraries, software/multimedia/internet and fine arts. Their concentration in Vienna is twice as high as Austria-wide. Just as in the fields of music, performing arts, advertising and architecture, relevant concentrations can be observed at all value added stages there. Graphic arts/fashion/design is the only field without a regional specialisation in Vienna. Although there are considerable regional strengths in the artistic/creative core (content LQ 224.2) of the sector, reproduction (LQ 59.8) is characterised by labour-intensive activities (particularly in the production of clothes, shoes and ceramic household articles), which are, for cost-saving reasons, rather located in the (national and international) outskirts. Figure 2: Vienna’s specialisation within creative industries Location quotient based on employment1), A = 100, 2003 CI total 175,8 Architecture 125,7 Audivisual sector 272,1 Fine arts 216,3 Performing arts and entertainment 170,1 Graphic arts, fashion, design, photography 101,6 Literature, publishing, print media 159,8 Museums, libraries 274,0 Music 159,2 Software, multimedia, internet 246,0 Advertising 182,5 Content Origination 192,9 Reproduction 166,0 Exchange 168,9 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations.– The location quotient is defined as BW j BGj with B = employment; j = sector and stage at the VA chain resp., W = Vienna und G = LQW j n B j 1 Wj : n B j 1 *100 Gj Austria. Assuming the same values as for Austria as a whole, the LQ has a value of 100. Values below 100 indicate a lower, values above 100 a higher employment concentration in the given sector in Vienna. Overall, however, Vienna shows regional strength even in the field of reproduction in an Austria-wide comparison (LQ 166.0), which is, a priori, surprising in view of Vienna’s meanwhile minor importance as an industry location. The strength is primarily due to the audiovisual sector, with producers of telecommunication devices and radio/TV sets being highly concentrated in the metropolitan area of Vienna. Overall, cluster initiatives in Viennese CI can therefore be based on remarkable “critical masses” that have applied (at least until today) to all areas of the value added chain. – 9 – 4. Employment dynamics: Large differences in the value added chain In how far this clustering really creates the expected job effects depends on the employment dynamics in the individual areas forming the network. Our analysis observes this for the period 1995-2003 and thus over a complete economic cycle. Due to changes in legal provisions on social security regarding atypical employment 6), we will consider both the development of overall employment7) and that of standard employment (full- and part-time employment subject to full social security contributions). The results confirm the role of Viennese CI as a job incubator in the regional employment system, but also point to their cyclical nature and marked differences between the development paths of the different stages of the value added chain (figure 3). Figure 3: Employment dynamics in Vienna’s creative industries by stages in the value added chain Employment relationships, 1995=100 Overall employment Standard employment 150 140 Content Origination 150 Exchange 130 130 140 120 120 Creative Industries 110 100 Vienna total Exchange 110 Creative Industries 100 90 90 80 80 Vienna total 70 70 Reproduction 60 1995 Content Origination 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Reproduction 60 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. During the boom of the late 1990s employment in Viennese CI grew remarkably regarding to both definitions, but again slightly decreased after the economic turning point in autumn 2001 and after the breakdown of the boom of the New Economy. Nevertheless, over the entire period, a positive growth differential of a remarkable +16 percent (+1.9 percent annually) in overall employment and of +5 percent (+0.6 percent annually) in standard employment was maintained, corroborating the importance of CI for the development of 6) The legal framework regarding social insurance for free service contracts and work contracts was only established in 1997, that pertaining to employment contracts below the marginal earnings threshold only in 1998. An observation of overall employment (standard and atypical employment) therefore reflects also additional possibilities regarding the choice of employment types. 7)Once again, it has to be pointed out that the data set applied does not include self-employment. The expresssion “overall employment” therefore refers exclusively to the totality of dependent employment relationships (standard employment and atypical employment). – 10 – Vienna’s labour market: Without the positive employment contribution of Viennese CI, overall employment in Vienna would not have increased by 1.9 percent, but decreased by 0.3 percent since the mid-1990s, and the decline in standard employment would have been 1.6 percentage points higher that it was actually. However, the results also reveal that Viennese CI, measured against their development conditions, do not constitute a homogeneous unit. An undifferentiated consideration of the Viennese CI as job incubator can therefore hardly be maintained. Along the value added chain, high, but rather cyclical employment gains in content origination (1995-2003 total employment +41.3 percent, standard employment +24.2 percent) and a lower, but sound job creation in exchange (+35.3 percent and +22.4 percent, respectively) contrast with a clear erosion of areas of reproduction (–32.4 percent and –34.2 percent, respectively), which has become severely pronounced in the period of economic downturn that started in 2001. Consequently, it is at best a sub - group of CI (pertaining to content production and diffusion) that can be considered a job incubator. Employment in reproduction, however, has developed markedly less favourably than overall employment in Vienna since the mid-90s (growth differential -30 percentage points) and even lacked behind the dynamics of total manufacturing (-5.1 percent annually compared with -4.5 percent annually) in the period observed 8). As a result, de-industrialisation phenomena in the urban economy are fully reflected in production-related areas of CI. Relevant advantages resulting from the increased utilisation of artistic-creative content could, at least at employment level, not be observed. In view of the different importance of the respective stages of the value added chain in the individual CI sectors, the latter show extremely heterogeneous development paths too (figure 4): The development of standard employment in 1995-2003 ranges from extreme growth in areas that are influenced by special effects 9, namely museums/libraries (+403 percent or 22.4 percent annually!) and fine arts (+191 percent or +14.3 percent annually) as well as solid growth in advertising (+38 percent; +4.1 percent annually) and software/multimedia/internet (+38.3 percent; +4.1 percent annually) to substantial employment losses in graphic arts/fashion/design (–25.8 percent; –3.7 percent annually) and the audio-visual sector (–19.6 percent; –2.7 percent annually). 8) In the long term, the field of reproduction in Vienna’s CI has, however, shrunk to a lower degree than the overall Viennese secondary sector (Hromatka – Resch, 2005). 9) Here new offers (Museums Quarter, new central library), but also growth within the public sector resulting from outsourcing have influenced the overall result. – 11 – Figure 4: Development of the sectors of creative industries Level and dynamics of standard employment; 1995-2003 80 Museums, libraries Employment growth 1995-2003 (%) 60 Advertising 40 Software 20 Performing arts 0 Architecture Literature, publishing Music -20 Audiovisual sector Graphic arts -40 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Growth-differential to Vienna (%) Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations – Circle size represents number of employees 1995. The main growth pole in Viennese CI was the large group of software/multimedia/internet, which posted high employment growth over the entire period, above all in content (software houses, software consulting, other data processing related activities), while development of exchange has been slightly weaker within the sector since 2001. On the other hand, employment in the graphic arts/fashion/design and the audiovisual sector, which were the two largest groups of CI still in 1995, has massively decreased in recent years despite pronounced growth in their artistic/creative core areas10. Overall, the positive employment contribution of Vienna’s CI therefore conceals extremely heterogeneous developments. A diffusion of the partly strong dynamics in some areas of content (particularly software, advertising) and exchange (in particular business services) into production-oriented areas of the value added chain (reproduction) cannot be observed. The “cluster” of Vienna’s CI might consequently lose its industrial basis before starting to develop positive spill - overs on these production-related areas in the first place. 10) While in the field of graphic arts/fashion/design this development is due to the erosion of Vienna’s clothing industry (reproduction) and some related areas of trade (in particular clothing and shoe retail) and is of a largely continuous character, the employment decline in the audiovisual sector concentrates on the years of economic downturn after 2001. Here the reason is the dramatic reduction of mostly large-scale, multinational-dominated structures of radio/TV set and telecommunication equipment manufacturers due to cost-based relocation. – 12 – 5. Job creation and job destruction: Heterogeneous development at the firm level, considerable job turnover More recent methods of labour market research (cf., for example, Davis – Haltiwanger, 1999) reveal information on the reasons of this unbalanced employment growth in Vienna’s CI. They involve comparisons of stocks at the firm level and try to give insight in those gross job flows that finally determine the (net) employment change observed. To this end, the following indicators are established: Firstly, all firms registering an increase in employment within one year are identified. The sum of all employment changes in these firms is referred to, in compliance with relevant literature, as “job creation”. Similarly, all firms registering a decline in employment within one year are selected. The sum of all jobs lost in these firms is referred to as “job destruction”. The sum of “job destruction” and “job creation” finally forms the so-called “job reallocation”. It indicates the gross job turnover and consequently the heterogeneity of firm growth processes. Applied to our individual data set, these calculations indicate that the moderate employment dynamics of Vienna’s CI masks enormous gross flows (table 2). Table 2: Job creation and job destruction in Vienna's creative industries Jobs created Jobs lost Net change Content Origination Reproduction Exchange Creative Industries Vienna total 4,705 1,225 5,393 11,322 67,558 7.0 1.8 8.0 16.8 100.0 Absolute 3,921 2,435 4,406 10,762 71,578 Shares of Vienna in % 5.50 3.40 6.20 15.00 100.00 Absolute 784 –1.211 987 561 –4,020 Absolute Shares of Vienna in % Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. Employment in Vienna’s CI increased on average by approx. 560 jobs per year in the observation period. However, this (low) net change results from the creation of more than 11,300 jobs per year, with a simultaneous loss of 10,760 jobs. Overall, in the period 1996-2003, almost 90,600 jobs were created in Vienna’s CI, while 86,100 were lost – a considerable turbulence at the job level that hardly becomes apparent by analysing (net) employment only. This indicates a considerable level of heterogeneity of growth processes at firm and sector level: Even in growing CI sectors many companies shrink, while in declining parts of creative industries successful enterprises create jobs. The analysis thus shows a permanent job – 13 – turnover in CI – a phenomenon that points to a speedy structural change at sector and firm level alike. Table 3: Job creation and job destruction in Vienna’s creative industries In percent of standard employment Creative Industries in Vienna Job creation Job destruction Vienna total Job creation Job destruction 1996 8.9 –11.5 9.3 – 8.5 1997 10.1 –10.6 9.5 –11.0 1998 10.9 – 9.6 10.5 –11.2 1999 12.7 –11.3 11.2 –11.0 2000 15.1 – 9.0 11.8 –11.3 2001 16.2 –14.0 13.7 –13.1 2002 11.6 –13.6 10.7 –13.2 2003 12.7 –14.2 11.7 –12.8 Average 1996-2003 12.4 –11.8 10.7 –11.3 Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. In the years 1996-2003 between 9 and 16 percent of the jobs in Vienna’s CI were newly created and a slightly smaller percentage of jobs were destroyed each year (table 3). Thus, the rate of job creation exceeded the corresponding values for Vienna’s economy almost continuously. For the rate of job destruction this applies at least for more recent years. Against this background, job turnover (as the sum of job creation and job destruction) in Vienna’s CI increased markedly over time and finally clearly exceeded that of Vienna’s overall economy (figure 5). This is remarkable since Vienna’s overall economy – in line with the expectations of regional economics for urban economies11) – is already characterised by a significantly higher job turnover than Austria. Vienna's CI thereby contribute considerably to the role of the city as an “incubator for firms and jobs”, but they are also responsible for the considerable heterogeneity of firm growth processes in Vienna, just as for the high job fluctuation in the region in general. 11) Large, diversified cities create a high number of innovative new enterprises at the beginning of the product cycle (Duranton – Puga, 2001). Therefore, more new jobs are created there than in other types of regions. Simultaneously, more jobs are destroyed, since innovations are riskyl, but also because successful young enterprises (due to their growth) demand a lot in terms of availability of estate and workforce, which results in a high probability of relocation. – 14 – Figure 5: Job turnover in Vienna’s creative industries In percent of standard employment 35 30 25 20 Creative industries Vienna 15 Vienna 10 Austria 5 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. In line with the comparably “young” firm population in Vienna’s CI 12) the great turbulence in the CI’s labour market is primarily due to micro-firms and small enterprises (table 4). Around two thirds of the job turnover in Vienna’s CI can be attributed to enterprises with less than 50 employees and around 41 percent to firms with less than 10 employees, with both the potential of job creation and the risk of job loss being high. Table 4: Job creation and job destruction in Vienna’s CI by firm size Averages 1996-2003 Contribution by size category to Job creation Job Job turnover destruction Extent of Job creation Job destruction share in % In % of standard employment 1 to 9 40.4 41.3 40.9 25.8 –25.1 10 to 49 25.4 23.2 24.3 15.0 –13.0 50 to 99 8.4 7.9 8.2 12.1 –10.8 100 to 249 11.9 8.2 10.1 11.9 – 7.8 250 to 499 7.2 4.6 5.9 8.6 – 5.2 500 and more employees 6.7 14.8 10.6 2.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 total 12.4 – 6.2 – 11.8 Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. In Vienna’s CI the number of jobs annually created in micro-firms with 9 or fewer employees amounts to more than a quarter (!) of their existing staff. Simultaneously, however, nearly the same percentage of jobs is lost in this size category, indicating that the stability of new jobs is 12) Half of all firms in Viennese CI were set up in 1993 or later. The median software/multimedia/internet firm has existed since 1997 (Ratzenböck et al., 2004). – 15 – quite low. Medium sized enterprises are therefore at least just as relevant for securing employment, with lower job creation offset by lower job loss rates. The number of jobs created in micro-enterprises (measured against the current staff size) hardly exceeds that of jobs lost, while it clearly does in enterprises with 10-499 employees. The latter thus created a relevant amount of jobs in the observation period. The core problem of clustering, however, seems to be the weakness of large firms in the CI sector: In the observation period, enterprises with more than 500 employees accounted for 14.8 percent of the jobs destructed, compared to only 6.7 percent of the jobs created in Vienna’s CI. Thus, large enterprises are the only firm category posting a (net) jobs loss in CI in 1996-2003. With large enterprises occurring above all at the processing levels of the production system of CI, the weakness, which has already been mentioned in chapter 4, of the value added stage reproduction or the sectors the latter dominates becomes clearly apparent also in gross job flows (figure 6). Figure 6: Contribution of individual areas to job creation and destruction in Vienna’s creative industries Jobs subject to full social security contributions, Ø 1996-2003 By sector By value added stage 100% 100% Advertising 80% Software, multimedia, internet 80% Music Museums, libraries 60% 60% Exchange Literature, publishing, print media Graphic arts, fashion, design, photography Performing arts and entertainment 40% Reproduction 40% Content Origination Fine arts Audivisual sector 20% 20% Architecture 0% 0% Job creation Job destruction Job creation Job destruction Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. In 1996-2003, firms in the field of reproduction accounted for nearly 23 percent of all jobs destructed in CI, compared with only 11 percent of jobs created. This imbalance continues at the sectoral level in the fields that are dominated by this stage of the value added chain (particularly the audiovisual sector, graphic arts/fashion/design; literature/ publishing/print). At closer inspection, the remarkable erosion of net employment in this area turns out not to be due to an over-proportional job destruction (around 10 percent of the employees, overall CI 11.8 percent). Instead, lacking success in job creation is much more decisive here: Annual – 16 – job creation in the CI areas of reproduction corresponds to no more than 5.1 percent of employees (CI overall: 12.4 percent)13). 6. Firm dynamics: High start-up activity, but also growth in existing firms Another important question in the context of job creation and job destruction is whether new jobs in CI are primarily created in new companies and in this way as a result of business startups or rather as a result of the growth of existing firms. Conversely, for evaluating long-term development potentials it is essential to know whether job destruction results above all from downsizing or rather from the definite closure of firms. Table 5: Start-ups and closures in the different parts of CI 1996-2003; in percent of standard employment Start-up rate Closure rate Architecture 5.6 5.9 Audio-visual sectors 1.8 1.5 18.2 8.5 Performing arts and entertainment 6.1 5.2 Graphic design, fashion, design, photography 4.6 5.8 Fine arts Literature, publishing, print media 5.1 4.7 19.6 6.1 Music 5.7 4.1 Software, multimedia, internet 3.8 3.2 Advertising 8.4 6.7 Content Origination 6.5 5.5 Reproduction 1.7 1.9 Exchange 6.6 4.6 Creative Industries, total 5.3 4.2 Vienna 4.6 4.2 Museums, libraries Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. With regard to this, start-up and closure rates14) indicate that the high employment dynamics in Vienna’s CI is (inter alia) due to relevant start-up activities (table 5). In newly set up enterprises of the cluster around 38,600 jobs were created in the years 1996-2003, 13) In general it is by no means the problematic areas that show particularly great turbulences at the job level. High job turnover is rather characteristic of dynamic industry groups that create many jobs through products at the start of the life cycle, but, due to their orientation towards innovation, act under risky conditions and thus incur a high rate of failure. 14) Start-up rates stand for the jobs created in newly founded firms during the first year, closure rates for the jobs that are lost due to closures during this period. – 17 – corresponding to an annual 5.3 percent of the existing jobs. This means that the start-up rate in Vienna’s CI clearly exceeds that of Vienna’s overall economy (4.6 percent). Simultaneously, 30,700 jobs (or 4.2 percent of the existing ones) in Vienna’s CI were lost on account of closures, with the closure rate exactly corresponding to that of Vienna’s overall economy. A positive firm dynamics (business start-ups/closures) therefore considerably contributes to a more favourable job development in CI in Vienna, however helped by a comparably dynamic stock of existing firms (figure 6). Overall, 42.6 percent of the new jobs in Vienna’s CI resulted from newly set up firms in 1996-2003, while 57.4 percent were created by employment growth in existing companies. This proportion is hardly different from that observed for the totality of sectors in Vienna, which allows for drawing the conclusion that the overall higher rate of job creation in Vienna’s CI can to a remarkable extent be attributed to a comparably high job growth in existing firms. Figure 7: Contribution of business start-ups and existing firms to job dynamics 1996-2003 Contribution to job creation 70 60 Contribution to job destruction 70 Creative Industries Vienna 57,4 56,8 50 42,6 64,3 61,7 60 Creative Industries Vienna 50 43,2 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 35,7 38,3 0 0 Business start-ups Firm population Firm population Closures Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. On the “passive side”, a clearly lower share of job loss in Vienna’s CI results from business closures. Job cuts thus result predominantly from an unfavourable development of existing firms rather than from their definite failure. Once again, when looking at company dynamics it becomes clear that Vienna’s creative industries are not a homogeneous cluster (table 5). Both start-up and closure rates differ considerably between sectors and stages of the value added chain, with differences in startup rates, varying between 19.6 percent (museums/libraries) and 1.8 percent (audiovisual – 18 – sector), being even more pronounced than those in closure rates. Firm dynamics in content origination and exchange as well as in 8 of the 10 different CI industries makes a positive net contribution to job creation in Vienna’s CI. At the reproduction stage and in the sectors of graphic arts/fashion/design and (to a slightly lower degree) architecture, changes at the firm level create (net) job losses. In this context it has to be mentioned that at sectoral level high start-up rates tend to go hand in hand with high closure rates, while low start-up activity is generally connected with low closure rates (correlation coefficient –0.721). “Dynamic” CI sectors (fine arts or museums/libraries and, to a slightly lesser extent, advertising and performing arts) are characterised by a comparably high number of jobs in newly established businesses, which are of course correspondingly risky and account for a high number of closures in these areas. Once again, the field of software/multimedia/internet is an exception among the growing CI sectors, with the bulk of newly created jobs resulting from the growth of existing firms. Within the shrinking segment the audiovisual sector in particular shows the pattern of a hardly dynamic industry group. Few new jobs are created through start-ups there. On the other hand, comparably few firms are closed down, which means that the overall considerable job reductions take predominantly place within (still) existing, but shrinking firms15). In contrast, the sector graphic arts/fashion/design on the one hand contains a quite dynamic (content) segment, where many jobs are created by start-ups. On the other hand, in the sector's exchange segment firm population is shrinking markedly, in this way contributing considerably to job losses. 7. Persistence of firm growth: Higher “probability of survival” of new jobs in Vienna’s CI Long-term employment dynamics of Vienna’s CI is finally not only determined by the number of jobs created and destructed each year. An important question in this context is to what extent jobs, once created, are sustainable and whether job losses can be compensated over time. To answer these questions, we established indicators of the sustainability (persistence) of created and destructed jobs. To this end, we selected all firms that create (lose) jobs during a year. Subsequently we determined how many of these jobs in these companies were again lost (created) in subsequent years. The share of the “surviving” (permanently lost) jobs in all jobs created (destructed) in the base year can be interpreted as an indicator of the sustainability of job creation (destruction). 15) This is certainly not least the case because the reproducing parts of the audiovisual sector are dominated by large enterprises. Dramatic closures are rare here. Instead, redeployment between firm locations as well as outsourcing of parts of production can be observed, while individual planning or distributive parts are maintained. – 19 – Table 6: Sustainability of job creation and job destruction in creative industries Share of remaining job losses (%) after ... Share of remaining “new” jobs (%) after ... 1 year 2 years 3 years 1 year 2 years 3 years Creative Industries 1996 72.6 54.1 44.1 88.8 80.0 76.0 1997 71.0 54.4 41.5 93.3 82.6 76.7 1998 75.2 58.9 40.8 94.1 82.6 78.3 1999 75.8 54.3 38.3 93.9 85.4 81.0 2000 74.6 54.4 43.6 97.9 84.6 81.1 Average 74.1 55.2 41.6 93.4 83.0 78.6 1996 67.6 47.7 37.4 86.9 78.1 72.2 1997 67.3 49.6 38.4 90.2 84.1 80.4 1998 71.0 53.2 38.4 90.3 84.4 80.8 1999 71.2 51.4 38.5 90.6 85.6 82.5 2000 68.7 50.7 39.0 90.9 86.2 82.9 Average 69.2 50.6 38.4 89.9 84.0 80.1 Vienna (total) Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. The results of these calculations (table 6) clearly indicate that the high level of employment growth in Viennese CI results, inter alia, from a comparably high sustainability (persistence) of firm growth. An average of around three quarters of the newly created Viennese CI jobs survived the first year in the observation period, while after three years 41.6 percent were still existing. Lost jobs were comparably difficult to compensate for: After one year 93 percent, and after 3 years almost 79 percent of all lost jobs remained unoccupied. Notwithstanding, jobs in Viennese CI are still more sustainable than all jobs in Vienna, and lost jobs are replaced faster in the CI cluster. Differences in sustainability again follow the findings regarding strong and weak parts of Viennese CI (table 7): The value added stages content origination and exchange are responsible for the higher persistence of firm growth, while jobs in the reproduction stage of the value added chain are less persistent and – once lost – less frequently replaced than in the city economy in total. Table 7: Sustainability of job creation and job destruction in the different parts of CI Shares after 3 years in percent; averages 1996-2000 remaining newly created jobs remaining destroyed jobs Architecture 41.1 76.5 Audiovisual sector 36.5 79.3 – 20 – Fine arts 37.9 80.3 Performing arts and entertainment 46.2 75.6 Graphic arts, fashion, design, photography 37.1 81.1 Literature, publishing, print media 40.1 79.9 Museums, libraries 44.6 77.5 Music 40.5 79.0 Software, multimedia, internet 50.0 75.6 Advertising 36.3 73.7 Content Origination 40.7 76.2 Reproduction 36.5 83.9 Exchange 44.0 78.0 Creative Industries, total 41.6 78.6 Vienna 38.4 80.1 Source: Federation of Austrian Social Security Institutions; own calculations. Also at a sectoral level, new jobs have comparably little persistence particularly in the “problem areas” (audiovisual sector, graphic arts/fashion/design, and, to a smaller extent, the fields of literature/publishing/print and music), while job losses are more sustainable than in the cluster average. In the dynamic areas, in turn, new jobs are more persistent, with software/multimedia/internet strikingly continuing to have the highest job stability within CI despite the recession of the New Economy in the early 2000s. 8. Summary and Conclusions In many cities, creative industries are the focus of cluster initiatives of urban economic policy. This is justified, on the one hand, by the increasing importance of creativity and new ideas as locational and production factor in the knowledge-based economy. On the other hand, the interest can be put down to the supposedly high growth and employment potentials attributed to this area. Based on a case study for Vienna, we deal with the question whether CI are able to live up to the role as job incubator that was assigned to them. We do this by analysing job effects and firm dynamics on the basis of a large individual longitudinal matched employer-employee data set for dependent employment and the period 19952003. Looking at Vienna, our case study analyses an urban area that has considerable “critical masses” for relevant clustering: After all, around 15 percent of regional employment in Vienna can be attributed to CI as a broadly defined production system. Specialisation compared with the national average can be found in all parts of the value added chain and almost all sectors defined as parts of CI. – 21 – The results confirm the function of creative industries as an incubator for firms and jobs, but also show a high degree of heterogeneity of firm growth in the cluster as well as a remarkable amount of turbulence at the job level: Overall, total (dependent) employment in Viennese CI has increased by 1.9 percent annually since the mid-1990s, exceeding total employment growth in Vienna (+0.2 percent) by far. Without the CI’s positive contribution to employment, total (dependent) employment in Vienna would not have increased by almost 2 percent since 1995, but decreased by 0.3 percent. This positive employment development masks enormous gross flows of jobs created and destructed, indicating phenomena of structural change at firm and sectoral levels. In Viennese CI almost 90,300 new jobs were created and 86,100 were lost in 1996-2003. Job turnover in the cluster, therefore, is high and increases over time. The higher employment dynamics in Viennese CI was due to a comparably high degree of firm dynamics (as the balance of business start-ups and closures) and a favourable development of existing firms. In addition, newly created jobs in Vienna's CI are more persistent than in the city economy in total. Aside from all the positive evidence, the analysis also points to weak spots that might possibly be relevant to cluster initiatives in other cities too: For Vienna it has been shown that although in small and young CI firms many new jobs are created, the latter lack sustainability: In CI firms with less than 10 employees the number of jobs created per year corresponds to more than a quarter (!) of the existing stock of jobs, but simultaneously nearly the same percentage is lost again. This reflects highly different growth paths at the firm level, which in turn indicate a high degree of heterogeneity in the skills of the manager-proprietors here. Therefore, relevant measures should place emphasis on consulting and training to support people starting up a business and in this way contribute to the stabilisation of jobs in the cluster. However, the main problem at the corporate level, at least in Vienna’s CI, lies in the field of large enterprises, which can be found almost exclusively at the processing stages of the CI production system (reproduction). Today, large enterprises constitute the only size category in Vienna's CI experiencing a (net) job loss. Here, phenomena of de-industrialisation and (partial) outsourcing, which generally characterise large industrial structures in metropolitan areas, come into play. CI-specific measures would consequently have to be accompanied by general industrial policy measures in cluster initiatives. Corresponding to the highly heterogeneous developments at the sectoral level, the focus has to be on differentiated policy measures that are tailored to the conditions of the different parts of CI. This would also take account of the fact that creative industries, at least in Vienna, do not form a homogeneous cluster: The value added chain in CI is made up of sub-segments with completely different development paths. A diffusion of the strong dynamics in content – 22 – origination proper (1995-2003 overall employment: +41.3 percent, standard employment +24.2 percent) and, to a smaller extent, in the distribution of artistic/creative content (exchange +35.3 percent and +22.4 percent, respectively) to more production-oriented stages of the value added chain (reproduction –32.4 percent and –34.2 percent, respectively) cannot be observed. Apparently, the latter have not benefited to a relevant extent from an increased utilisation of artistic/creative content so far. Instead, their decline (– 5.1 percent annually) exceeded that of manufacturing in total (–4.5 percent annually) in the period observed. Against this background, measures have to be taken to counteract a further thinning out of downstream production stages of the value added chain in regional CI by further linking up content and application-oriented activities. (Appropriate and necessary) promotion activities within the artistic/creative core should therefore be supplemented by mediating and coordinating activities between the heterogeneous segments of the value added chain. Considering the location logics of large industrial firms, it cannot of course be assumed that positive spill-over effects from the artistic/creative core completely prevent a further erosion of application-oriented areas, even if the aforementioned measures are pursued resolutely. The increasing functional division of labour between core cities (as optimum locations of highly technological and human-resource intensive sub-productions) and the broader surroundings with their advantages regarding to availability of land and production costs will undoubtedly continue in the future. Hence, it seems reasonable to reconsider the mostly narrow geographical focus of cluster initiatives in creative industries and to search for points of contact also in complementary reproducing sectors in the broader urban surroundings. A cluster of creative industries that relies on the locational advantages of the city for the artistic/creative and distributive parts of the value added chain, while benefiting from the attractiveness of the wider agglomeration in the fields of reproduction, would certainly have the best chances to accumulate relevant competitive advantages. – 23 – Table A1: Vienna Definition of creative industries classified by sectors and value added chain segments Manufacturing and Reproduction Exchange 74.20 Architecture Audiovisual sector (film, video, television, radio) Content Origination 24.65 (33.3%) 92.11 92.13 32.20 92.20 52.45 (40%) 32.30 (50%) 92.72 (50%) 22.32 92.12 71.40 (50%) 92.31 (25%) Fine arts 52.50 (33.3%) 52.63 (50%) 74.84 (12.5%) Performing arts and entertainment 92.31 (25%) 55.40 (50%) 92.33 92.32 (50%) 92.34 92.72 (50%) Graphic arts/fashion/design/photography 18.10 36.22 52.42 18.22 36.61 52.43 18.24 74.81 52.44 19.30 74.84 (12.5%) 26.21 52.50 (33.3%) 52.48 (20%) 33.40 Literature/publishing/print media 22.21 22.11 (50%) 52.47 22.22 22.12 71.40 (50%) 22.23 22.13 74.84 (12.5%) 22.24 22.15 22.25 92.31 (25%) 92.40 Music 24.65 (33.3%) 22.14 55.40 (50%) 32.30 (50%) 92.31 (25%) 92.32 (50%) 36.30 22.11 (50%) 52.45 (60%) 22.31 74.84 (12.5%) 52.50 (33.3%) Museums/libraries 74.84 (50%) 92.51 92.52 92.53 Software/multimedia/internet 24.65 (33.3%) 36.50 52.48 (20%) 22.33 72.20 64.20 72.40 72.60 Advertising 74.40 Source: Ratzenböck et al. 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