Options to Create a Sustainable Energy Future
Arun Majumdar
Stanford University
Industrial Revolution: Horse Power to Horsepower
Steven Chu & Arun Majumdar, “Opportunities and challenges for a sustainable energy future,” Nature 488, 294 (2012)
300 Horsepower
10,000 Horsepower
100,000
Horsepower
The greatest engineering achievement of the 20th century
US National Academy of Engineering
Global Exponentials
But the world is not flat
16B
Global Population
Global Per Capita GDP
7B
10B
6B
2015
Global Energy Use
Gas
Oil
Biomass
Coal
Global Atmospheric CO2
Concentration
2100
Three Big Questions for the next decades:
• How can we decarbonize our energy system and continue economic
growth?
• How do we adapt to climate change?
• How can we enable access to affordable energy to 1.5-3B people who
don’t have access today?
Tesla-Edison paradigm for the last 120 years
Centralized Nikola Tesla
G
Continuous
Generation
Generation Always
Tracks Load
US: $0.5T Industry
World: $2T industry
Stanford /SLAC
Frequency
communicates
generation-load
imbalance
L
Thomas Edison
G
G
Grid
L
L
One-way
power
flow
L
L
Distributed Load
5
Drivers of change
• Deep decarbonization of the electricity system
–
–
–
–
Deep renewables penetration (>50%)
Demand side management
Carbon capture and sequestration
Nuclear energy
NO PRICE ON
CARBON!
• Deep penetration of distributed energy resources at
the grid edge
Stanford /SLAC
6
Carbon-Free Electricity
Unsubsidized price
Capacity
(GW)
120
100
Contract
Price
$/MWh
US Coal & Nuclear
80
60
US Natural Gas & China Coal
40
Source
1. DOE EERE
Sunshot Q1’15
Report
2. DOE EERE Wind
$20/MWh
20
2008
2010
2012
2014 ‘15
Electrification of Transportation
Difficult to electrify
trucks, planes and
ships
Mass-market all-electric cars
Nykvist & Nilsson, Nature Climate Change (2015)
Cost has reduced 3 times between 2008-2015
Materials and packaging innovations
We need carbonneutral hydrocarbon
liquid fuels at
$2/gallon equivalent
>50% Renewables and Large Amounts of DERs in
the Electricity Grid
Lots of questions that need to be answered..
• How can we ensure grid stability against intermittency and large
ramps in the most cost effective way?
• How do you ensure reliability cost effectively?
• How can we reach our energy efficiency and emissions goals?
• How can we secure everything?
• Should there be new pricing mechanisms and market structures
to pay for the technologies needed for the above?
• Are there new business models that leverage these pricing
mechanisms?
• Are there new regulatory frameworks that need to be created?
• Will people accept these changes?
Power
\
\
Time
Stanford /SLAC
9
How can we minimize cost of integration?
Power
Cost of electricity delivery > Cost of electricity generation
Options
1. Long-distance HVDC transmission lines
\
[MacDonald et al, Nature Climate Change (2016)] (long permitting
process in US)
2. Add NG generation & storage capacity (How
much? Costs can increase)
3. Use flexible load to follow generation (Real-time
demand response. Which loads and how?)
4. Combination 1, 2, 3
Centralized
Continuous
Generation
Generation
Always Tracks
Load
L
Generation, storage and control load at the grid edge
Stanford /SLAC
\
Time
G
G
G
Grid
L
L
One-way
power
flow
L
Distributed Load
L
This is a tectonic shift for the traditional TeslaEdison electricity ecosystem.
Solutions will have much more impact if we use a
holistic systems-focused approach.
Stanford /SLAC
11
Data is a key enabler and unique value proposition
• Power electronics
• Communications & Control
• Sensing
• Cloud computing & Distributed Intelligence
• Data Science
They are all getting cheaper and better!
Stanford /SLAC
12
Example of Data Analytics
Cloud
Assumption of Daily Residential Load
OPEN SOURCE
VISDOM: Cloud-Based
Analytics for Planning
120,000 residents
200 patterns
14%
How RES actually consumes
R. Sevlian & R. Rajagopal, “Scaling Law
of Very Short Term Electricity Load
Forecasting on Varying Levels of
Aggregation,” (2013)
13
Powernet: Sharing and Coordinating Homes
ISO
Supply-Demand Balance 24/7
Electric
Utility
Can the net load be shaped to
track volatility in generation?
Local Autonomous
Estimation & Optimal
Dispatch of Load-GenStorage
Cloud
Networked
Switch, Meter
or Power
Electronics
Stanford /SLAC
14
Cloud-Based Dynamic Response & Aggregation
Grid Services
Utility Services
Wholesale Market
Electric
Utility
Cloud
Control
Power
Flow
Networked
Switch OR Inverter
15
Integrated Approach to Grid:
• Coordination between
Transmission & Distribution system
under high-penetration
renewables and DERs;
• Wholesale markets and retail
pricing;
• Interplay between demand control
and volatile bulk generation
Connected Customers &
Communities. Networked
• Load
• Generation
• Storage
that can be controlled individually
or in aggregate
Data Commons
An infrastructure to aggregate and manage petabytes of diverse usable datasets
as well as multiple tools to analyze the data in unique ways
Stanford /SLAC
16
Federal Energy
Regulatory
Commission
Private PV
Cloud
Private EV
Cloud
Regulation
>50%
ISO/RTO
Wholesale Market
State Public
Utility
Commission
Private
Thermostat
Cloud
Value Streams
BEHIND THE &FRONT OF
METER
THE METER
Engagement
Mechanisms?
Regulation
UTILITY
Meter Data
Management
System
Smart
Meter
Utility Lines
Stanford /SLAC
17
Bits and Watts
Stanford/SLAC Innovations for the 21st Century Grid
Electrical
Power
Technology
Institutions
(grid operators,
utilities, FERC,
PUCs..)
Markets
Tesla-Edison
Grid
Ecosystem
Finance
Stanford /SLAC
Business
Models
Regulations
We need holistic approach to
research and education that
leverages the interplay between
technology, markets, business
models, regulations, finance and
policy
Policy
18
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Low-cost integration of intermittent renewables at >50% penetration
Rewiring photosynthesis to induce negative emissions and increase food productivity
Store carbon-free energy in fuels at $2/gallon of gasoline equivalent
Internal combustion engines with >50% efficiency with multi-fuel mixtures
Building performance standards combined with designs, materials, sensors and
control systems that significantly reduce building energy consumption
6. Deep borehole carbon-free geothermal energy with levelized cost <7-8 ¢/kWh
7. Modular nuclear plant construction at capital cost <$3/W (levelized cost < 7 ¢/kWh)
8. Battery storage at capital cost <$100/kWh with >1000 cycles
9. Photovoltaic systems that are lighter and more efficient, enabling fully-installed
capital cost of $0.5/W (levelized cost < 2.5 ¢/kWh)
10. Carbon capture from coal-fired power plants at cost <$30/tCO2 and directly from air
at <$150/tCO2
(In)Famous Predictions from the Past
“Radio has no future”
“X-rays will prove to be a hoax.”
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible”
Lord Kelvin in 1890s
(In)Famous Predictions from the Past
“Man will not fly for 50 years.”
Wilbur Wright in 1901
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable
from magic.
Arthur C. Clarke
Thank you!