THE firma PROJECT
The Firma Project has been supported by the European Union’s Framework 5 Programme for
Research and Development and by the European Commission as part of its Key Action on
Sustainable Management and Quality of Water programme (contract EVK1-CT1999-00016)
FIRMA Initial Objectives
MAIN OBJECTIVE:
To improve water resource planning through the use of multi-agent
models that integrate physical, hydrological, cognitive, social and
economic aspects of water resource management
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES:
1. Promote co-operation between water resource decision makers and
experts in water resource management and in agent-based social
simulation.
2. Analyse hydrosocial issues of waste water treatment, water scarcity and
integrated catchment planning in selected regions and assemble the data
required for agent-based modelling.
3. Develop agent-based models for application to issues of water
treatment, scarcity and planning.
4. Carry out participatory integrated assessments in five selected regions,
involving stakeholders, scientists and agent-based modelling experts.
5. Compare the management of water and to develop methodology for the
agent-based simulation of water resource issues in Europe based on
experiences.
3 main themes
• Methodological development
of agent models
• Application of these models to water resource issues in five
regions of Europe
• Transfer of knowledge, experience and
techniques,
– between experts on agent-based modelling and experts on water
resource management, and
– between the project and the wider community of policy makers.
Traditional approaches
 Lack of transparency for end users
 Stakeholder behaviour fixed and exogenous
 Aggregate relationships (e.g. aggregate demand) rather
than individual behaviour
 Constrained by the number of choices that can be
represented in the model and conveyed to end users.
 Detailed representations of hydrology and hydraulic
systems but comparatively primitive representation of
decision-making
FIRMA Partners
• CEMAGREF (Centre National du Machinisme Agricole, du Genie Rural, des Eaux et Forets),
FRANCE
• CPM (Centre for Policy Modelling), Manchester Metropolitan University, UK
• EAWAG (Eidgenoessische Anstalt Fuer Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und
Gewaesserschutz), SWITZERLAND
• STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE, UK
• IP-CNR (Instituto di Psicologia, Consigilio Nazionale delle Richerche), ITALY
• ICIS (International Centre for Integrative Studies), University of Maastricht, The
NETHERLANDS
• UNIVERSITA AUTÒNOMA de BARCELONA, SPAIN
• UNIVERSITÄT KOBLENZ-LANDAU, GERMANY
• UNIVERSITY OF SURREY, UK
5 case study regions
BARCELONA,
SPAIN
LIMBURG, THE
NETHERLANDS
ORB VALLEY,
FRANCE
THAMES, UK
ZÜRICH,
SWITZERLAND
Policy issues in the case study regions
Barcelona,
Spain
Augmenting water supply to reduce risk, financing investment
Limburg,
The Netherlands
Integrated water planning taking account of consumer behaviour
and its impact on water demand
Orb Valley,
France
Integrated catchment planning through ‘river contracts’
Thames region,
England
Water scarcity and demand management in response to
increasing environmental restrictions, predictions for climate
change and rising consumer demand
Zürich,
Switzerland
Shifting from water supply to demand management
(these are the issues identified in the proposal)
Methods
Initial familiarisation
 Identification of stakeholders
 Outline of main policy issues
 Collection
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 Construction of prototype models
 Trials of models
Iterate….
 Construction of scenarios
 Discussion workshops with stakeholders
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FIRMA
RESULTS
Deliverables
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Training course syllabus
Regional application reports
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Regional models
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A range of models (software, role-playing games and
documentation)
Using the models in participatory settings
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Detailed reports about water resource policy issues in each
case study area
Lessons from our experience
Synthesis of modelling methods
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Guidelines for participatory agent-based integrated modelling
TRAINING COURSE
Online at: http://firma.cfpm.org/course/index.htm
FIRMA Models
• Household Water Demand Models for Barcelona
and Thames
• Maaswerken Negotiation Models
• Orb Consumption and Resource Evolution
Model and Pollutant Diffusion Model
• Pandora Conceptual Model
• Zürich Water Games 1, 2 & 3
Publications
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Asakawa, T and Gilbert, N. (forthcoming). Synthesising experiences: lessons to be learned from internet-mediated simulation games. Simulation and Gaming.
Barreteau, O., Cernesson, F., and Ferrand, N. (2001). Pluralité des références spatiales et sociales pour les acteurs d'un contrat de rivière. Montagnes Méditerranéennes No.14. pp 47-56.
Conte, R. (2002). Emergent (Info )Institutions, Cognitive Systems Research Volume 2, Issue 2, May 2001, pp 97-110
Conte, R., Dellarocas, C. (eds) (2001). Social Order in MAS Kluwer.
Conte, R., and Paolucci, M. (2002). Reputation in Artificial Societies Social Beliefs for Social Order Kluwer.
Conte, R. (forthcoming). Cognitive and Social Factors in Reputation in J. Pitt (ed.) Open Agent Societies: Normative Specifications in Multi-Agent Systems Wiley
Conte, R. and Fattori, R. (forthcoming) Cognitivi degli Artefatti Socio-Cultural Sistemi Intelligenti
Conte, R., and Paolucci, M. (forthcoming) Reputation in Partner Selection Rationality and Society
Conte, R., and Sichman, J.S. (forthcoming) Dependence Within And Between Groups Computational and Mathematical Organisation Theory
Downing, T. E., Moss, S. and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2000) Understanding Climate Policy
Using Participatory Agent-Based Social Simulation Proceedings of Multi Agent Based Simulation (MABS), Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence Springer Verlag pp198-213.
Gilbert, N., Maltby, S. and Asakawa, T. (2002) Participatory simulations for developing scenarios in environmental resource management in C. Urban, (ed.) Third Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation. SCS Europe Bvba, Ghent. April 7-9 pp 67-72.
Hare, M., Deadman, P., and Lim, K. in Ghassemi, F. (eds.) (2001) Towards a taxonomy of agent-based simulation models in environmental management Integrating models for natural resources management across disciplines, issues and scales. MODSIM 10-13 December
Canberra, Australia. Volume 3: Socioecnonomic systems pp1115-1122
Hare, M., Gilbert, N., Maltby, S., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2002) An Internet-based Role Playing Game for Developing Stakeholders' Strategies for Sustainable Urban Water Management: Experiences and Comparisons with Face-to-Face Gaming ISEE, 2002, Sousse, Tunisia.
Hare, M, Gilbert, N., Medugno, D., Asakawa, T., Heeb, J. and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2001) The development of an internet forum for long-term participatory group learning about problems and solutions to sustainable urban water supply management in Hilty, L.M. & Gilgen, P.W. (eds)
Sustainability in the Information Society, 15th International Symposium Informatics for Environmental Protection, Part 2: Methods/Workshop Papers Metropolis Verlag, Marburg. pp743-750.
Hare, M., Heeb, J., and Pahl-Wostl C. (2002.) The Symbiotic Relationship between Role Playing Games and Model Development: A case study in‘participatory model building and social learning for sustainable urban water management ISEE, 2002, Sousse, Tunisia.
Hare, M., Heeb, J., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (forthcoming). The Symbiotic Relationship between Role Playing Games and Model Development: A case study in participatory model building and social learning for sustainable urban water management’ ISEE, 2002, Sousse, Tunisia.
Hare, M., Letcher, P., and Jakeman, A.J. (2002).
Hare, H., Medugno, D., Heeb, J., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2002). An applied methodology for participatory model building of agent-based models for urban water management In C. Urban (ed.) Third Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation. SCS-Europe BVBA, April 7-9 pp 61-66.
Hare, M., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2001). Model uncertainty derived from choice of agent rationality - a lesson for policy assessment modelling in N. Giambiasi and C. Frydman, (eds.) Simulation in Industry: 13th European Simulation Symposium. SCS Europe Bvba, Ghent. pp 854859.
Hare, M., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (forthcoming). Stakeholder categorisation in processes of participatory integrated assessment Integrated Assessment.
Pahl-Wostl, C., and Hare, M. (2002) Participative and Stakeholder-based policy design, analysis and evaluation processes Integrated Assessment Volume 3
pp 3-14.
Krywkow, J., Valkering, P., Rotmans, J., and van der Veen, A. (2002) Coupling an Agent-Based Model With an Integrated Assessment Model to Investigate Social Aspects of Water Management in C. Urban, (ed.) Workshop 2002: Agent-Based Simulation 3 Proceedings, SCSEuropean Publishing House, Erlangen, Ghent 2002
Krywkow, J. Valkering, P., Rotmans, J., and van der Veen, A. (2002). Agent-based and Integrated Assessment Modelling for Incorporating Social Dynamics in the Management of the Meuse in the Dutch Province of Limburg in A.E. Rizzoli, and A.J. Jakeman (eds.) Integrated
Assessment and Decision Support Proceedings of the First Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society IEMSs, 24 -27 June, University of Lugano, Switzerland Volume 2, pp263- 268.
Möhring, M., and Troitzsch, K. (2001). Lake Anderson revisited by Agents Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Volume 4, No.3
Moss, S., Pahl Wostl, C. and Downing, T. E. (2001) Agent Based Integrated Assessment Modelling: The example of Climate Change. Integrated Assessment Volume 2 pp17-30.
Moss, S. (2002) Challenges for Agent-Based Social Simulation of Multilateral Negotiation in K. Dautenhahn, et al. (eds.) Socially Intelligent Agents Kluwer Academic, pp251-258.
Moss, S. (2001) Policy Analysis from First Principles Invited paper for the Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium on Adaptive Agents, Intelligence and Emergent Human Organization: Capturing Complexity Through Agent-Based Modelling Oct 5- 6, 2001
Moss, S. (2001). Policy Analysis from First Principles Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences Volume 99: suppl. 3, pp 7267-7274.
Pahl-Wostl, C. and Hare, M. (2002) Stakeholder categorization in participatory integrated assessment processes Integrated Assessment Volume 3, pp 50-62.
Pedone, R., and Conte, R. (2001). Dynamics of Status Symbols and Social Complexity Social Science Computer Review Volume 19, No. 3, pp. 249-262.
Sauri, D. (forthcoming). El transvassament de l'Ebre: recursos hídrics i equilibri territorial (The Ebre water transfer: water resources and territorial equilibrum) in Nel. lo, O. (ed) Aquí no! ("Not here!"). Barcelona: Empúries
Sauri, D. (2002) Lights and shadows of urban water demand management: the case of the Metropolitan Region of Barcelona European Planning Studies
Sichman, J.S. and Conte, R. (2002) Multi-Agent Dependence by Dependence Graph in C. Castelfranchi, and W.L. Johnson (eds) Bringing People and Agents Together, Proceedings of Autonomous Agents & MAS Conference AAMAS 2002 ACM Press, Part I, 483-91.
http://firma.cfpm.org/
Key Lessons Learned (i)
1.
2.
3.
Agent-based approaches allow the involvement of
stakeholders in the development of models.
Agent-based approaches aid policy development by
supporting stakeholder learning about the
complex dynamics of water resource management
and other stakeholders’ viewpoints.
Agent-based approaches yield a richer base for
policy-making than using traditional modelling
approaches.
Key Lessons Learned (ii)
4.
5.
6.
Many agent-based models rather than a single
common model are needed because the effects of
water policy implementation differ according to
context and history.
There are many types of agent-based model and
stakeholder participation so it is necessary to consider
the most appropriate approach for a particular
policy context.
There are some common building blocks from
which a variety of agent-based models can be
constructed
Key Lessons Learned (iii)
To summarise, the Firma project has focussed on the
‘bottom up’ development of possible futures
Using
agent-based modelling
In partnership with stakeholders
To develop shared representations of
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Social and political structures
Natural conditions
That
allow for clarifying and sharing perspectives
In order to develop a better understanding of what needs to be
considered or controlled in order to influence behaviour
We believe that the Firma approach will lead to a new way
of using participatory processes and integrated
assessment models
Other outputs
The project has…
 Raised the profile of participatory methods in
resource management
 Provided proof-of-concept for participatory agentbased models
 Developed a strong network between the Firma
partners which may lead to further collaborations
Next steps…
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Continued work and interaction with stakeholders
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e.g. formal feedback, model development, policy implications
Possible applications in other regions within and
outside of the EU
Applications related to other resources besides
freshwater
With thanks to
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The European Commission
Our project officer
All our stakeholder representatives
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Those
who have provided us with data,
answered our survey questionnaires, and
taken us on guided tours
The 42 people who have worked on the
project over the last three years