Johann Liljengren, Talent Development
Secondary, Johns Hopkins University
Frances Gerber, Southwest
Independent School District, San
Antonio, Texas
Early Warning
Systems 101
I have heard
about Early
Warning Systems
1
We are planning
a roll-out this
year
2
We have started
trying out some
of these pieces
3
We are
perfecting our
EWS
4
Core Ideas of Early Warning Systems
• To graduate, college- and career-ready
students need to successfully navigate several
key transitions and acquire a set of academic
behaviors - they need to learn how to succeed
at school.
• Students signal that they are on- or off-track
toward these outcomes through their
behaviors
Core Ideas of Early Warning Systems
• By tracking Early Warning Indicators it is
possible to identify when students are
beginning to fall off-track, providing time to
intervene and alter their trajectory through
school and beyond.
Early Warning System
Indicators
Intervention system
• Reliable and Valid
• Predictive
• Unique information
for action
• Tiered Interventions
(Individual, targeted,
whole school)
• System for
monitoring/follow-up
• Reflective processes
WHAT IS THE RESEARCH TELLING
US?
Indicators and Influencers?
Poor attendance
Overage: 1-2 years, 2 years+
Course failure
Core courses
Elective courses
Poor behavior
Repeaters
9th graders
Behavior marks
Suspensions
Special education
English Language Learners
Standardized test scores
Gender
Socio-economic status
Parental education
Dropouts can be identified as early as 6th
grade
Sixth Graders (1996-97) with an
Early Warning Indicator
100%
80%
% of
stude nts
60%
who are ontrack to
40%
graduation
Attendance
Behavior
Math
Literacy
20%
Sixth grade students 0%
r
with one or more of
6 th
7 th
8 th
9th 10th 11th 12th ation yea
1
u
the indicators have
d
+
a
Gr
Grade in School
only a 10% to 20%
chance of graduating Note: Early Warning Indicator graph from Philadelphia research which has been replicated in 10 cities.
Balfanz and Liza Herzog, Center for Social Organization of Schools at Johns Hopkins University;
from high school on Robert
Philadelphia Education Fund
time or within one
year of expected
graduation
Comparison Group
Philadelphia Sixth Graders with an Early Warning
Indicator, Followed through to High School Graduation
100%
Attendance
80%
Behavior
% of students
60%
who are
on-track to
graduation 40%
Math
Literacy
Comparison
Group
20%
0%
Year in School
~1,200 sixth graders with
90%+ att., excellent behavior
passed math and English,
and scored at or above basic
on the 5th grade PSSA
Los Angeles Course Failure
What Factors Predict
High School
Graduation in the
Los Angeles Unified
School District?
Silver, D., Saunders,
M. (University of
California, Los
Angeles), Zarate, E.
(University of
California, Irvine)
Success Factors – The A,B,Cs
• A study in Chicago has shown that GPA is the
strongest predictor of college graduation.
– More than 60% of students who graduated with a 3.6
GPA or higher completed a four-year degree within six
years compared to slightly more than a quarter with
GPAs between 2.6 and 3.0
– *Consortium on Chicago School Research, 2006
• Good News: Students are resilient and usually
signal before dropping out.
• Students usually start with one indicator and
develop more indicators over time.
HOW DO WE ORGANIZE THE DATA INTO
USEFUL INFORMATION?
HOW DO WE ORGANIZE AND RESPOND
TO THE DATA?
Early Warning Systems - Indicators
Off-track
- Research based
- Need Intervention
- Probability
- Majority of
Students
Sliding
On-Track
Research Takeaways - Attendance
• Students who are missing 10% or more of
school need intervention.
• But it is the students
Tracking
Data
who miss 5 or fewer
Off-Track Less Than
days in the year who
90%
thrive.
Greater
• Attention should be paid On-Track
Than 90%
to students who miss
Greater
more than 5 days but
College
Than 95%
less than 10%
Ready
Research Takeaways - Behavior
• Students with sustained mild misbehavior fall
off track in larger numbers.
• It is important to track more minor as well as
major incidents.
Tracking
Data
• Students who are
1 or More
suspended once need
Suspensions
intervention to make
And/or
Off-Track
Mild Sustained
sure they are not
Behavior
suspended again.
On-Track
No Suspensions
Research Takeaways – Course Performance
• Course Performance is as important for
students’ long-term success as test scores.
Tracking
Data
• Students with multiple
Failing ELA
Off-Track
Ds and Fs seldom
and/or Math
graduate.
Passing ELA
On-Track
• Students with B or
and/or Math
better averages
College
B or Better
succeed in college.
Ready
Lessons learned - Southwest ISD
Use Specific, Targeted Data Points
Data cards with student faces and
building PLC teams for each group of
students
Data Collection with a Purpose
Identify Off-Track Students
Develop an Intervention Plan
Organize that Data into Information
Attendance
Student
Behavior
(referrals)
Course Performance
Sept
09-10
Sept
09-10
Math
Sept.
Math Q4
ELA Sept
ELA
Q4
#John
5 days
96%
0
7
68%
B
77%
A
#Adrian
0
93%
4, 1
Susp.
2
88%
A
53%
C
#Samuel
0, 10
tardy
99%
2
14
82%
B
55%
D
#Erica
5
81%
1
1
56%
C
87%
B
Step #1
Student level report for 2-3 students
• What trends do you notice?
• What supports/interventions/responses
would you take at your school?
Step #2
Full class ABCs and resiliency
• What trends do you notice?
• What supports/interventions/responses
would you take at your school?
Lessons learned - Southwest ISD
 Organizing data
 Building Systems
 Create a sacred time to meetings and
deadlines
 Connecting to the right interventions
 Use the strengths on your staff
 Go outside and bring in support
 Organizing and supporting staff
 Build teams for teachers to collaborate with
 Celebrate all achievements and progress
WHAT’S NEXT?
Student Data
Attendance
Student
Behavior
(referrals)
Course Performance
Sept
09-10
Sept
09-10
Math
Sept.
Math
Q4
ELA
Sept
ELA
Q4
#John
5
days
96%
0
7
68%
B
77%
A
#Adrian
0
93%
4, 1
Susp.
2
88%
C
53%
C
#Samuel
0, 10
tardy
99%
2
14
82%
B
55%
D
#Erica
5
81%
1
1
56%
C
87%
B
Change
Change
What a grade level looks like?
Tier I
Whole school
Tier II
Attendance
• Weekly
attendance
recognition
• Perfect attendance
celebration
(monthly)
• Team competition
for attendance
• Check and Connect
• Wake up calls
• Buddy System with
another student
• Recognition for
improved
attendance
Behavior
• Cardinal Cash
• Peer Mediation
(Caught you doing
group
something good)
• Daily Behavior
• Freshman Seminar
contract
lessons
• In-class
• Academy meetings
interventions
• Outside Speakers
(seating, pairing,
activity
Tier III
Most Intensive
• Home visit by
counselor
• Individual contract
with student and
parent
• PREVENTION – Gang
intervention group in
the neighborhood
• Visit one on one with
social worker
• Individual counselor
sessions
EWI Meetings
An interdisciplinary teacher team meeting to
coordinate, create, and monitor interventions for
students who are exhibiting early warning
indicators.
Recommendations for getting started
Southwest ISD
 Introduce the rationale for the program
& share the research
 Develop systems
 Run a program analysis on the EWI with
your campus data
 Over-support your teachers in the
beginning
 When they see progress, students and
teachers will takeover this process
Early Warning System
Indicators
Intervention system
• Reliable and Valid
• Predictive
• Unique information
for action
• Tiered Interventions
(Individual, targeted,
whole school)
• System for
monitoring/follow-up
• Reflective processes
Johann Liljengren – [email protected]
Frances Gerber – [email protected]
CONTACT INFORMATION