Royal Economic Society Gary Becker’s "A Theory of the Allocation of Time" Royal Economic Society Arthur Lewbel Boston College March 2015 Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 1 / 11 Setting the table: Before "Treatise on the Family" (1981, 1991), before "Theory of Social Interactions (1974)," Gary Becker (1965) "A Theory of the Allocation of Time." The Economic Journal, 75(299) 493-517. Goal was to provide, "a basic theoretical analysis of choice that includes the cost of time on the same footing as the cost of market goods" Economists before him accounted for foregone earnings from time for human capital investment but, "economists have not been equally sophisticated about other non-working uses of time" (p. 493-94). Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 2 / 11 Example Precursors: Mincer (1962), considered a married woman’s time trade-o¤ between housework and paid work. Gorman (1956, not cited), proposed and analyzed a household production function (but not with time). Becker’s models are now THE foundational modeling framework for household level analyses of consumption and time use. So natural it’s hard to believe it had to be invented. Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 3 / 11 Becker’s framework: Utility function U (Z1 ,...,Zm ). Each commodity Zi produced by a household production function Zi = fi (xi , Ti ). Each xi is a bundle of goods purchased at the vector of prices pi . Each Ti is a bundle of time use quantities, at vector of prices wi . Time use and purchased goods create commodities (home production), commodities produce utility, maximized under an overall budget constraint. Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 4 / 11 Time for Becker Becker noted full income S is easily calculated and interpreted when there is only a single wage rate that doesn’t depend on T . This is the standard modeling assumption today, but Becker said this case was "special and unlikely," and did not impose it. Becker thought of time as having di¤erent prices at, say daytime vs nighttime or weekends vs weekdays, rather than a single wage rate. For Becker, S is de…ned by maximizing an "earnings" function W (Z1 ,...,Zm ) subject to the single budget constraint and to the production functions for each commodity. Marginal costs, which determine behavior, need not equal the average time costs wi . Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 5 / 11 With multiple consumption goods, and multiple types of time, still get two stage decomposition: 1. Calculate S . 2. Maximize household utility U (f1 (x1 , T1 ) ,...,fm (xm , Tm )) under 0 0 S. ∑m i =1 pi xi + wi Ti Key insight: There are not two di¤erent constraints for time and money. There is only a single budget constraint! Many implications follow from there being just one constraint. Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 6 / 11 Becker doesn’t identify or estimate the model, but draws implications (casual empiricism). Examples: 1. Must consider shadow cost of time as a cost of commuting to work. 2. As wages rise, people waste more food to save on shopping and food prep time. 3. Variation in time use price (e.g. wage rates) across households induces variation in the shadow price of goods. Implication: Engel curves underestimate the true income e¤ects of earnings-intensive goods, like child care, could help low income elasticity of fertility. 4. Household specialization of labor (See Pollak). Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 7 / 11 Following Becker (1965) Dynamic, forward looking optimization. Combine with Becker’s (1974), "A Theory of Social Interactions." A collective household model instead of his unitary model (though still just one household budget constraint!). Power now becomes relevant. See Heckman (2015) for many more. Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 8 / 11 One strand of literature: identi…cation and estimation? What household level data is observable? What is needed? (A single wage per person really helps). Pareto e¢ cient household and distribution factors (Chiappori with many coathors including Browning, Ekeland,...) Revealed Preference bounds on household resource shares (Vermeulen, Cherchye, De Rock,...) Restrictions to identify household resource shares, including children as people instead of just public goods (Lewbel, Pendakur,...) Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 9 / 11 Becker’s approach to family economics: mainstream now, but revolutionary then. Many were openly hostile, calling his model sterile, vacuous, cold, and immoral. Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 10 / 11 Couple’s time combines with purchased goods to jointly create household utility. Likewise, in the last 50 years, our time has combined with Becker’s models to jointly create enormous social utility. Lewbel (Boston College) 03/15 11 / 11 Royal Economic Society Domestic production and matching Economic Journal Anniversary Sessions - Becker 1965 Pierre-André Chiappori Columbia University Manchester, March 2015 Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 1/9 Becker on Matching Seminal, 1973 JPE paper: “Yet, one type of behavior has been almost completely ignored by economists, although scarce resources are used and it has been followed in some form by practically all adults in every recorded society. I refer to marriage.” Becker concludes: “Therefore, the neglect of marriage by economists is either a major oversight or persuasive evidence of the limited scope of economic analysis.” (Ibid.) Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 2/9 Becker on Matching (cont.) Main insights: Marital choices as rational decisions ! the economic approach is relevant Household as a small economy, with domestic production ! reference to the 65, EJ paper Men and women compete between them for a spouse; the outcome of these interactions is an equilibrium. Consequences: Marital sorting – who marries whom – has an important, economic component Depends on ‘complementarity’or ‘substituability’of male and female traits within the household production function The intra-household allocation of resources determined by the equilibrium prevailing on the ‘marriage market’ Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 3/9 Becker’s framework: emphasis on domestic production Individuals exclusively consume commodities that have been internally produced. Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 4/9 Becker’s framework: emphasis on domestic production Individuals exclusively consume commodities that have been internally produced. ‘All commodities can be combined into a single aggregate Z ’ Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 4/9 Becker’s framework: emphasis on domestic production Individuals exclusively consume commodities that have been internally produced. ‘All commodities can be combined into a single aggregate Z ’ ‘Our concentration on the output and distribution of Z does not presuppose transferable utilities, the same preference function for di¤erent members of the same household, or other special assumptions about preferences’ Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 4/9 Becker’s framework: emphasis on domestic production Individuals exclusively consume commodities that have been internally produced. ‘All commodities can be combined into a single aggregate Z ’ ‘Our concentration on the output and distribution of Z does not presuppose transferable utilities, the same preference function for di¤erent members of the same household, or other special assumptions about preferences’ Individual traits are ‘complement’if the ‘marginal productivity’of one spouse’s trait increase with the partner’s Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 4/9 Becker’s framework: emphasis on domestic production Individuals exclusively consume commodities that have been internally produced. ‘All commodities can be combined into a single aggregate Z ’ ‘Our concentration on the output and distribution of Z does not presuppose transferable utilities, the same preference function for di¤erent members of the same household, or other special assumptions about preferences’ Individual traits are ‘complement’if the ‘marginal productivity’of one spouse’s trait increase with the partner’s Modern versions consider a more general framework Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 4/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? EJ 65: Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? EJ 65: crucial inputs are husband’s and wife’s time spent in domestic production Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? EJ 65: crucial inputs are husband’s and wife’s time spent in domestic production High wage means that time input is costly ... Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? EJ 65: crucial inputs are husband’s and wife’s time spent in domestic production High wage means that time input is costly ... ! therefore e¢ cient to match with a partner whose time is cheap Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? EJ 65: crucial inputs are husband’s and wife’s time spent in domestic production High wage means that time input is costly ... ! therefore e¢ cient to match with a partner whose time is cheap Note that this is not the specialization logic (substituability between time inputs in the production function, see Pollak 2013) Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? EJ 65: crucial inputs are husband’s and wife’s time spent in domestic production High wage means that time input is costly ... ! therefore e¢ cient to match with a partner whose time is cheap Note that this is not the specialization logic (substituability between time inputs in the production function, see Pollak 2013) Problem: counterfactual Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? EJ 65: crucial inputs are husband’s and wife’s time spent in domestic production High wage means that time input is costly ... ! therefore e¢ cient to match with a partner whose time is cheap Note that this is not the specialization logic (substituability between time inputs in the production function, see Pollak 2013) Problem: counterfactual PAM even 50 years ago Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 Is matching assortative on Human Capital? Becker’s claim: Negative Assortative Matching (NAM) ‘... the correlation between mates for wage rates or for traits of men and women that are close substitutes in household production will tend to be negative.’ Argument: Positive or Negative Assortative Matching (PAM or NAM): are traits complement or substitute? EJ 65: crucial inputs are husband’s and wife’s time spent in domestic production High wage means that time input is costly ... ! therefore e¢ cient to match with a partner whose time is cheap Note that this is not the specialization logic (substituability between time inputs in the production function, see Pollak 2013) Problem: counterfactual PAM even 50 years ago In particular, educated women do not marry uneducated husbands Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 5/9 A simple example CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (t1 )α1 (t2 )α2 Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 6/9 A simple example CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (t1 )α1 (t2 )α2 Budget constraint: p (C1 + C2 ) = w1 (1 Chiappori (Columbia University) t1 ) + w2 (1 Becker 65 t2 ) with wi = Hi W Manchester, March 2015 6/9 A simple example CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (t1 )α1 (t2 )α2 Budget constraint: p (C1 + C2 ) = w1 (1 t1 ) + w2 (1 t2 ) with wi = Hi W Transferable utility Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 6/9 A simple example CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (t1 )α1 (t2 )α2 Budget constraint: p (C1 + C2 ) = w1 (1 Transferable utility ! surplus: S (H1 , H2 ) Chiappori (Columbia University) t1 ) + w2 (1 t2 ) with wi = Hi W = W max (H1 (1 p t1 ,t2 = α1α1 α2α2 W (H1 + H2 )1 +α1 +α2 p (α1 + α2 + 1)1 +α1 +α2 (H1 )α1 (H2 )α2 Becker 65 t1 ) + H2 (1 t2 )) (t1 )α1 (t2 )α2 Manchester, March 2015 6/9 A simple example CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (t1 )α1 (t2 )α2 Budget constraint: p (C1 + C2 ) = w1 (1 Transferable utility ! surplus: S (H1 , H2 ) = t1 ) + w2 (1 W max (H1 (1 p t1 ,t2 t2 ) with wi = Hi W t1 ) + H2 (1 t2 )) (t1 )α1 (t2 )α2 α1α1 α2α2 W (H1 + H2 )1 +α1 +α2 p (α1 + α2 + 1)1 +α1 +α2 (H1 )α1 (H2 )α2 In particular, second cross derivative: = (H1 + H2 )α1 +α2 1 (α1 H2 α2 H1 )2 + α1 H22 + α2 H12 H1α1 +1 H2α2 +1 Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 < 0 ) NAM! Manchester, March 2015 6/9 A possible solution to the puzzle Keep Becker’s insights: Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 7/9 A possible solution to the puzzle Keep Becker’s insights: Domestic production, domestic times as inputs Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 7/9 A possible solution to the puzzle Keep Becker’s insights: Domestic production, domestic times as inputs PAM if complementarities in traits Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 7/9 A possible solution to the puzzle Keep Becker’s insights: Domestic production, domestic times as inputs PAM if complementarities in traits Individuals characterized by their HC Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 7/9 A possible solution to the puzzle Keep Becker’s insights: Domestic production, domestic times as inputs PAM if complementarities in traits Individuals characterized by their HC Additional ingredient: HC as an input in domestic production process ! obvious justi…cation: children Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 7/9 A possible solution to the puzzle Keep Becker’s insights: Domestic production, domestic times as inputs PAM if complementarities in traits Individuals characterized by their HC Additional ingredient: HC as an input in domestic production process ! obvious justi…cation: children Then two opposite forces: Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 7/9 A possible solution to the puzzle Keep Becker’s insights: Domestic production, domestic times as inputs PAM if complementarities in traits Individuals characterized by their HC Additional ingredient: HC as an input in domestic production process ! obvious justi…cation: children Then two opposite forces: Educated spouse’s time is more costly ... Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 7/9 A possible solution to the puzzle Keep Becker’s insights: Domestic production, domestic times as inputs PAM if complementarities in traits Individuals characterized by their HC Additional ingredient: HC as an input in domestic production process ! obvious justi…cation: children Then two opposite forces: Educated spouse’s time is more costly ... ... but also more productive Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 7/9 A simple example (CCM 2015) CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (H1 t1 )α1 (H2 t2 )α2 Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 8/9 A simple example (CCM 2015) CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (H1 t1 )α1 (H2 t2 )α2 Budget constraint: p (C1 + C2 ) = w1 (1 Chiappori (Columbia University) t1 ) + w2 (1 Becker 65 t2 ) with wi = Hi W Manchester, March 2015 8/9 A simple example (CCM 2015) CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (H1 t1 )α1 (H2 t2 )α2 Budget constraint: p (C1 + C2 ) = w1 (1 t1 ) + w2 (1 t2 ) with wi = Hi W Transferable utility ! surplus: S ( H1 , H2 ) = = Chiappori (Columbia University) W max (H1 (1 t1 ) + H2 (1 t2 )) (H1 t1 )α1 (H2 t2 )α2 p t1 ,t2 α1α1 α2α2 W (H1 + H2 )1 +α1 +α2 p ( α 1 + α 2 + 1 )1 + α1 + α2 Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 8/9 A simple example (CCM 2015) CD preferences: Ui = Ci Q with Q = (H1 t1 )α1 (H2 t2 )α2 Budget constraint: p (C1 + C2 ) = w1 (1 t1 ) + w2 (1 t2 ) with wi = Hi W Transferable utility ! surplus: S ( H1 , H2 ) = = W max (H1 (1 t1 ) + H2 (1 t2 )) (H1 t1 )α1 (H2 t2 )α2 p t1 ,t2 α1α1 α2α2 W (H1 + H2 )1 +α1 +α2 p ( α 1 + α 2 + 1 )1 + α1 + α2 In particular KW ∂ 2 S ( H1 , H2 ) = (H1 + H2 )α1 +α2 ∂H1 ∂H2 p Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 1 >0 Manchester, March 2015 8/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Domestic production function crucially important, especially regarding HC formation for children Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Domestic production function crucially important, especially regarding HC formation for children Growth Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Domestic production function crucially important, especially regarding HC formation for children Growth Inequality Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Domestic production function crucially important, especially regarding HC formation for children Growth Inequality ... etc. Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Domestic production function crucially important, especially regarding HC formation for children Growth Inequality ... etc. Empirical implications? Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Domestic production function crucially important, especially regarding HC formation for children Growth Inequality ... etc. Empirical implications? the form of domestic production functions has a potentially crucial impact on matching Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Domestic production function crucially important, especially regarding HC formation for children Growth Inequality ... etc. Empirical implications? the form of domestic production functions has a potentially crucial impact on matching ! conversely, observed matching patterns may tell us something about domestic production function Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Conclusions Technical point: complementarity between traits (matching) di¤erent from complementarities between inputs (specialization) Complementarities in Becker’s contributions: clearly 73 builds on 65 Domestic production function crucially important, especially regarding HC formation for children Growth Inequality ... etc. Empirical implications? the form of domestic production functions has a potentially crucial impact on matching ! conversely, observed matching patterns may tell us something about domestic production function Still much to learn from considering several Beckerian insights jointly Chiappori (Columbia University) Becker 65 Manchester, March 2015 9/9 Royal Economic Society Allocating Household Time: When Does Efficiency Imply Specialization? Robert A. Pollak Washington University in St. Louis and NBER March 31, 2015 1 What Does Economic Theory Teach About Time Allocation? Does the economic theory of time use imply that efficiency requires specialization in multiple-person households (e.g., married couples; cohabiting couples)? This seems to be what Becker claims in the Treatise on the Family (1981; 1991). Why focus on Becker? Because there isn’t much subsequent theoretical work on time allocation. (There is lots of empirical work.) 2 Roadmap Specialization Toward a New New Home Economics: Elements of a Theory of the Household Individuals’ Production Functions and Household Production Function 3 Meaning of Specialization - 1 With two sectors (home and market) 1. Strong (complete) specialization: each spouse allocates time to only one sector 2. Weak (partial) specialization = specialization: one spouse allocates time to one sector, the other spouse allocates time to one sector or to both sectors 3. Nonspecialization: both spouses allocate time to both sectors 4 Meaning of Specialization - 2 The sector specialization claim is not that husbands spend more time in market work than wives, and wives spend more time in household work than husbands. This is wrong for two reasons 1. It introduces a gendering that is not part of the definition of specialization. 2. Sector specialization has a specific technical meaning -- we never observe both spouses working in both sectors. 5 Meaning of Sector Specialization - 3 The theoretical claim is that efficiency requires that at least one spouse allocates zero time to one sector or the other. The time allocations of married men and married women have become more similar over the last 50 years . Both spouses typically spend time in both market work and household work. In rich nonCatholic countries, total time allocated to work by married men and married women is about the same. Burda, Hamermesh, and Weil, “Total Work and Gender: Facts and Possible Explanations” (2012) 6 Some Facts: Household Production “Traditional gender roles do persist in the allocation of time within households. Total hours of housework in married couple households fell more than 20 percent between 1965 and 1995 (Bianchi, Milkie, Sayer, and Robinson, 2000) but, though husbands’ hours of housework increased substantially, wives still performed most of the housework at the end of this period. In the 2005 American Time Use Survey, married women reported an average of 16 hours per week of ‘household activities’ compared to less than 11 hours for men.” Lundberg and Pollak (JEP, 2007) 7 Still More Facts: Labor Force Particiaption 2008 Labor Force Participation Rates for Married men 25-34 95.3% Married women 69.5% Age 35-44 95.2% 73.8% US data: CPS 8 Widespread Inefficiency? If the economic theory of time use implied that efficiency required specialization in married-couple households, then the prevalence of married-couple households in which both husbands and wives allocate time to both the market sector and household sector would be evidence of widespread inefficiency. An additional claim: Becker makes a further claim that the efficient pattern of specialization is gendered, with wives specializing in the household and husbands in the market. I ignore this further claim about gendering. 9 The Household Production Model and the New Home Economics Becker (Economic Journal, 1965) "A Theory of the Allocation of Time“ Becker wrote: Households are "assumed to combine time and market goods to produce more basic commodities that directly enter their utility functions.“ Becker (1981, 1991) A Treatise on the Family Becker’s household production model remains the lens through which virtually all economists and many other social scientists view time allocation. 10 The Household Production Model There is more than one version of the household production model. Becker (1981, 1991) differs from the earlier versions, Becker (1965) and Michael and Becker (1973) Multiple-person households in the Treatise vs. single-person households in Becker (1965) Human capital: both market and household human capital in the Treatise vs. no human capital in Becker (1965) which 11 is a one period model. New Issues with MultiplePerson Households Allocation of goods, time and commodities. Alternative models of decision making in multipleperson households: Binding commitments in the marriage market Becker’s altruist model Bargaining within marriage Chiappori’s collective model as reduced form The allocation of goods, time and commodities may or may not correspond to “specialization” 12 The Theoretical Time Use Literature Pollak and Wachter (1975) Gronau (1977) One person households No human capital 13 Specialization Becker dominates time use theory in economics. Becker’s claim: efficiency implies sector specialization, regardless of preferences or bargaining power Becker’s further claim about gendering: husbands in the market; wives at home. 14 Facts and Theory In the light of the facts about labor force participation and about housework cited above, the theoretical claim that efficiency implies sector specialization is (or should be) an embarrassment to economists, unless we accept that many married couple households are inefficient. I return to this later. What does Becker actually say about sector specialization? 15 Theory: Becker (1981, 1991) - 1 Treatise on the Family: ”Theorem 2.1. If all members of an efficient household have different comparative advantages, no more than one member would allocate time to both the market and household sectors. Everyone with a greater comparative advantage in the market than this member's would specialize completely in the market, and everyone with a greater comparative advantage in the household would specialize completely there." 16 Theory: Becker (1981, 1991) - 2 Treatise on the Family: "Theorem 2.3. At most one member of an efficient household would invest in both market and household capital and would allocate time to both sectors.” (This is complete statement of Theorem 2.3.) 17 Perfect Substitutes - 1 Treatise on the Family: Chapter 2 (p. 32), "Since all persons are assumed to be intrinsically identical, they supply basically the same kind of time to the household and market sectors. Therefore, the effective time of different members would be perfect substitutes, even if they accumulate different amounts of household capital..." (italics in original; underline added for emphasis. Perfect substitutes are NOT mentioned in any of the specialization theorems. But perfect substitutes are mentioned in the text and are crucial. 18 Perfect Substitutes - 2 With perfect substitutes, efficiency implies specialization. No additional assumptions are necessary (well, only one -- the absence of “process preferences”) None of Becker’s specialization theorems explicitly assume perfect substitutes; if they did, additional assumptions would be unnecessary. The perfect substitutes assumption is a highly restrictive, ad hoc assumption to which economics has no commitment. 19 Where do the Specialization Results Come from? "Pure economics has a remarkable way of producing rabbits out of a hat -apparently a priori propositions which apparently refer to reality. It is fascinating to try to discover how the rabbits got in; for those of us who do not believe in magic must be convinced that they got in somehow." J. R. Hicks, Value and Capital, 1939 20 Three Omitted Topics 1. Human Capital 2. Joint Production and Process Preferences: Pollak and Wachter (JPE 1975). 3. Leisure: Gronau (JPE 1977) 21 Does Efficiency in Production Imply Specialization? Becker’s claim: Efficiency in production requires sector specialization, regardless of preferences or bargaining power. Becker’s assumes two “sectors,” a market sector and a household sector. Human capital appears to play a critical role in Becker’s specialization theorems I show that with perfect substitutes, Becker’s default assumption, the specialization results do not depend on human capital. 22 Comment: Different Comparative Advantages - 1 The hypothesis: “If all members of a household have different comparative advantages…” This hypothesis is easily misinterpreted as an assumption about household technology. It is not. Except in very special cases, comparative advantage depends on the allocation of time within the household. Different comparative advantages is an hypothesis about (efficient) time allocation within the household. Efficient production with both spouses allocating time to both activities requires equal comparative advantages. Think about the first order conditions. 23 Comment : Different Comparative Advantages - 2 So the theorem says: “If we don’t have an interior solution (ie., both spouses allocating time to both sectors), then we have a corner solution” (at least one spouse does not allocate time to both sectors). This is not a technical criticism of the theorem. Theorems are supposed to be tautologies. But if you thought that “equal comparative advantages” was an hypothesis about household technology and extremely unlikely -- perhaps a set of measure 0 – then you misunderstood the hypothesis. 24 Many Commodities Suppose there are many household commodities. Lundberg (2008) points out that if there are m household commodities then, for households in which both husbands and wives participate in the market, perfect substitutes implies that husbands specialize in the production of m* of these home-produced commodities and the wives in the production of the remaining m-m* commodities. This may lead to activity specialization, but not sector specialization unless m* = 0 or m* = m. Economies of scope provide incentives for the same spouse to engage in all household activities. 25 Toward a New New Home Economics Primitives in the New NHE - 1 Four components: 1. Preferences 2. Constraints/ (including technology) 3. Governance structure (e.g., Becker’s altruist model; cooperative Nash bargaining) 4. Information structure (leading to transaction costs) 26 Toward a New New Home Economics: Primitives in the New NHE - 2 1. Preferences: Individuals' utility functions 2. Constraints/ opportunities Budget constraint; time constraints Technology Individuals’ technologies and household technology Production functions 3. Governance structure (e.g., altruist model; Nash bargaining) determines “distribution factors” 4. Information structure (transaction costs; coordination costs). 27 Preferences Preferences (utility functions) for both spouses. Preferences for market goods and home produced commodities (home cooked meal; clean house). Following Becker, assume there are no “process preferences” With process preferences, people care not only about home cooked meals and a clean house, but also whether they spend time cooking or cleaning. Any specialization/ unilateral production conclusion depends on assuming that process preferences are absent or too weak to upset sector specialization. 28 Why We Need Individuals’ Technologies as well as Household Technology 1. Single-person (one adult) households are intrinsically interesting 2. Marriage market: Compare well-being when single with well-being in particular potential marriage 3. Divorce: Compare well-being in current marriage with well-being if divorced 4. Allocation within marriage (e.g., bargaining) Divorce as outside option in most models Divorce as threat point in some models 29 Examples of Alternative Governance Structures 1. Becker’s altruist model. One spouse as “husbandfather-dictator-patriarch” who makes all decisions (Pollak, 1988). 2. Nash bargaining (Manser and Brown; McElroy and Horney; Lundberg and Pollak) 3. Other cooperative and noncooperative bargaining models (e.g., repeated games, two stage games) 4. Chiappori’s “collective model” as a reduced form corresponding to any bargaining model with a unique, Pareto-efficient solution. 30 Information Structure and Transaction Costs Asymmetric information and monitoring. Coordination and household management: Mrs Beeton Becker devotes a section of Chapter 2 to “Shirking, Household Size, and the Division of Labor” in which he discusses “[s]hirking, pilfering, or other malfeasance” Why does the person who cares most about how a particular task is done so often decide to do it herself? Without asymmetric information and monitoring costs, which spouse does a task is independent of which spouse wants it done. 31 When Do Assumptions about Technology Imply Conclusions about Specialization/ Unilateral Production? It takes very strong assumptions about technology to imply conclusions about “specialization” or “unilateral production” that hold for all possible assumptions about preferences, governance structures and market wage rates. 32 How Rabbits Got In - 1 Unless marginal products are constant, comparative advantages depend on time allocation. “Different comparative advantages” is assumption about efficient time allocation, not just about technology. For a wide class of assumptions about technology and wage rates, production efficiency requires nonspecialization and implies equal comparative advantages. Different comparative advantages rule out interior solutions (i.e., those in which both spouses allocate time to both sectors). Different comparative advantages implies specialization: a corner solution. 33 How Rabbits Got In - 2 Perfect substitutes If the spouses time inputs are perfect substitutes, then efficiency in production implies specialization without any additional assumptions (e.g., about additivity, returns to scale, or human capital). 34 How Rabbits Got In - 3 The theorems assume that there are only two "sectors"-- home and market. But if there are m household commodities then, for households in which both husbands and wives participate in the market, Becker's reasoning implies that husbands specialize in the production of m* of these home-produced commodities and the wives in the production of the remaining m-m* commodities (Lundberg, 2008). This is a kind of specialization, but it is not sector specialization. 35 Royal Economic Society A simple identi…cation strategy for Gary Becker’s time allocation model Laurens Cherchye Bram De Rock (Université Libre de Bruxelles) (University of Leuven) Frederic Vermeulen (University of Leuven) Royal Economic Society Conference March 31, 2015 CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 1 / 16 Introduction 50 years ago, Gary Becker published “A theory of the allocation of time” in the Economic Journal. Laid the foundations of household production theory, together with Gorman (1956) and Lancaster (1966). Households combine market goods and time to produce nonmarket goods, which provide utility. Enormous in‡uence on the literature: Muth (1966), Gronau (1970), Grossman (1972), Michael (1973), Willis (1973), Pollak and Wachter (1975), Rosenzweig and Schultz (1983), Cunha and Heckman (2007), etc. CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 2 / 16 Introduction Empirical implementation hampered by the lack of values (‘prices’) for di¤erent time uses. Usual approach: prices of female and male time uses are equal to their respective market wages. This implies a fundamental identi…cation problem. We present a simple solution to this identi…cation problem. Based on variables (‘production shifters’) that are related to the total factor productivities associated with the production of nonmarket goods. CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 3 / 16 Overview Becker’s time allocation model. A fundamental identi…cation problem. A simple solution. Conclusion. CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 4 / 16 Overview Becker’s time allocation model. CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 5 / 16 Becker’s time allocation model Households derive utility from nonmarket goods, like a clean home, child rearing or eating. Nonmarket goods produced by means of market goods and time. Constant returns to scale and nonjointness in production (Pollak and Wachter, 1975). The household’s maximization problem: max z,q1 ,...,qk ,t1 ,...,tk ,tm u (z) subject to: zi k ∑ pi 0 qi = f i (qi , ti ) with i = 1, ..., k, = y + w m 0 tm , i =1 k ∑ ti + tm = T. i =1 CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 6 / 16 Becker’s time allocation model Budget and time constraints can be rewritten as a full income constraint: k k i =1 i =1 ∑ pi 0 qi + wm 0 ∑ ti = y + wm 0 T. Constant returns to scale and nonjointness in production imply: k ∑ bi (pi , wi )z i = y + wm 0 T. i =1 CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 7 / 16 Becker’s time allocation model Implies an example of Gorman’s (1959) two-stage budgeting (Heckman, 2014). First stage: max u (z) z subject to: k ∑ bi (pi , wi )z i = y + wm 0 T. i =1 Second stage (i = 1, ..., k): max f i (qi , ti ) qi ,ti subject to: pi 0 qi + w i 0 t i = y i . CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 8 / 16 Overview Becker’s time allocation model. A fundamental identi…cation problem. CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 9 / 16 A fundamental identi…cation problem Prices of di¤erent time uses usually not observable. Assumption that values of time uses equal the market wages. Second stage’s optimal input choices to produce nonmarket good i are observable Marshallian functions: qi = gqi (pi , wm , y i ) ti = gti (pi , wm , y i ). Integrability results in standard demand analysis imply that f i can be recovered up to a monotone increasing transformation (that satis…es homotheticity) if and only if Slutsky conditions are satis…ed: ∂c i (pi , wm , z i ) ∂pi i i ∂c (p , wm , z i ) ∂wm CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) = gqi (pi , wm , c i (pi , wm , z i )) = gti (pi , wm , c i (pi , wm , z i )). Time allocation March 31, 2015 10 / 16 A fundamental identi…cation problem First stage’s optimal allocation associated with the Marshallian demand functions: z = g(b 1 (p1 , wm ), ..., b k (pk , wm ), y + wm 0 T). No independent variation of price indices given changes in prices and market wages. Preferences cannot be disentangled from technologies: continuum of utility and production functions gives rise to observationally equivalent behavior (see Chiappori and Lewbel, 2014, and Chiappori and Mazzocco, 2014). Standard labor supply model belongs to that continuum (Heckman, 2014): max v (q1 , ..., qk , l) q1 ,...,qk ,l subject to: k ∑ pi 0 qi + wm 0 l = y + wm 0 T. i =1 CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 11 / 16 Overview Becker’s time allocation model. A fundamental identi…cation problem. A simple solution. CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 12 / 16 A simple solution Assume that there exists a vector s = (s 1 , ..., s k )0 of ‘production shifters’that a¤ect overall productivity but not the optimal relative input choices. The variables s are basically total factor productivities. This implies production functions (i = 1, ..., k) of the form: z i = f i ( qi , t i ) s i . Examples: minus the average age of children in the production function of child rearing (Cunha and Heckman, 2007; Cunha, Heckman and Schennach, 2010) or education (Michael, 1973). Relation with Stigler and Becker (1977): di¤erences in observed behavior not explained by ad-hoc taste di¤erences but through di¤erences in the household production functions that impact the income and prices faced by households. CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 13 / 16 A simple solution Second stage same as before: the production functions can be identi…ed through variation in pi and wm (the production shifters do not play any role in the optimal input allocation to produce the nonmarket goods). First stage’s full income constraint now equals: k b i ( pi , w i ) i ∑ s i z = y + wm 0 T. i =1 First stage’s Marshallian demand equations: b k ( pk , w m ) b 1 (p1 , wm ) , ..., , y + w m 0 T). s1 sk Utility function u can be identi…ed up to a monotone increasing transformation if and only if Slutsky conditions are satis…ed through variation in the production shifters s, and thus the prices b 1 (p1 ,wm ) b k (pk ,wm ) , ..., , while holding constant market prices and s1 sk wages. z = g( CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 14 / 16 Overview Becker’s time allocation model. A fundamental identi…cation problem. A simple solution. Conclusion. CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 15 / 16 Conclusion Becker’s time allocation model with uniform prices for di¤erent time uses can be identi…ed by means of production shifters. We assumed a unitary model. A related identi…cation strategy (with more general technologies) can be used in collective models that account for intra-household allocation issues (see Cherchye, De Rock and Vermeulen, 2012). CDV (Royal Economic Society Conference) Time allocation March 31, 2015 16 / 16 Royal Economic Society
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