California Energy Commission
The Loading Order –
How Are We Doing?
Jackalyne Pfannenstiel
Chairman
California Energy Commission
Independent Energy Producers
Annual Meeting
October 10, 2006
California Energy Commission
Energy Action Plan’s Loading
Order Directs Resource
Additions
1. Energy efficiency and
demand response
2. Renewable energy
resources
3. Clean and efficient fossil
generation
California Energy Commission
2006 Heat Storm Was a Wake-Up Call
How hot was it?
 Northern California peak temperatures at once-in-28-year levels.
 Southern California peak temperatures at once-in-10-years, even
over the weekend.
 SDG&E load peaked on Saturday - first time ever.
 Record 11 days over 100° in Sacramento.
 Northern California overnight lows were highest in recorded history at least 1 in 57 years.
California Energy Commission
An Improbable Peak
1 in 2
1 in 10
Actual Peak:
about 1 in 50
California Energy Commission
Surviving The Heat Storm
What worked:
 Coordination and communication
 Generation, transmission and import availability
 Demand response
 Praying
What didn’t:
 Distribution transformers
California Energy Commission
Lessons For Next Time
 Distribution transformers fail under extreme heat
conditions.
 Demand response well-suited for low probability
events.
 Peak load system operations needs planning and
coordination.
 Demand forecast needs to be updated often.
 Luck is not a resource.
California Energy Commission
Resource Needs
 Loads growing at 1.5%-2% per year
 Peaks growing faster
California Energy Commission
Peak Demand Growth
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
California Energy Commission
Declining Load Factors
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
California Energy Commission
Housing Drives Load Growth
New Residential Construction in California from 1975-2005
350
300
200
Multi-family
Single
150
100
50
Year
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
-
1975
Number of units
250
California Energy Commission
New Homes Add to Peak Demand
 1.2 million new homes by 2017
 Most in hottest areas

AC loads add 2,400 MW at peak
California Energy Commission
Air Conditioning Contributes to the
Peak
1992-
 Revised Peak Forecast for
Summer 2006 and Beyond
1984-1991
 More AC in Existing Urban
Centers
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1975-1983
 Housing Growth in Hotter
Areas
Saturation of Central AC
Before 1975
 More Central Air
Conditioning
California Energy Commission
Loading Order: Energy Efficiency
 First: Use energy
efficiency and
demand response
as preferred means
of meeting growing
energy needs.
California Energy Commission
Energy Efficiency Works
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_use/total/csv/use_csv.html
14,000
12,000
United States
kWh/person
10,000
8,000
6,000
California
4,000
2,000
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
California Energy Commission
45,000
Energy Efficiency Resource
Additions
~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003
40,000
35,000
25,000
Utility Efficiency
Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
20,000
15,000
Building Standards
10,000
5,000
Appliance Standards
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
0
1975
GWh/year
30,000
California Energy Commission
Meeting EE Goals
Annual Goals As of July 2006
2006
2007
Achieved
Annual
Savings
YTD
Achieved
Savings As
% of 2006
Goal
84
19%
2008
Net Summer
Peak MW
442
478
528
Net Annual
MWh
2 million
2.2
million
2.5
million
382,000
19%
Net Annual
Therms
37.3
30 million million
44.4
million
4.3
million
14%
California Energy Commission
Loading Order: Renewables and
Disributed Generation
 Second: New
generation needs met
first by renewable
energy resources and
distributed generation,
such as combined heat
and power
.
California Energy Commission
Renewable Energy Growth
Geothermal
Biomass
Wind
Solar
California Energy Commission
Renewables: Stuck in Neutral?
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2002
2003
2004
2005
California Energy Commission
Loading Order: Clean and
Efficient Fossil-fuel Generation
 Third: To the extent the
above are unable to
satisfy energy and
capacity needs, support
clean and efficient
fossil-fuel fired
generation.
California Energy Commission
We’ve Been Adding Power Plants
California Energy Commission
More Applications Are Being
Considered
Projects
No.
MW
In Active Review
14
4,506 MW
Possible New Filings through June 30, 2007
~12
~5,000 MW
Plants on Line for Summer 2007
1
160 MW
Plants on Line for Summer 2008
2
893 MW
Plants on Line for Summer 2009
~4
1,350 MW
California Energy Commission
9,036 MW Licensed, But Not Built
Number
MW
Cancelled/expired
6
1,393
No contract
6
5,057
Other reasons
5
2,586
California Energy Commission
Overall, How Are We Doing With the
Loading Order?
Resource
Goal
Progress
Efficiency
382,000 MWH
19%
Demand
Response
RPS
2,400 MW
1,100 MW
20% by 2010
11%
As Needed
2,400 MW for
next 3 years
Fossil
California Energy Commission
Prospects for Improvement
 Energy legislation
 Transmission progress
 Utility solicitations: renewable, non-renewable
 Advanced metering
 Integrated Energy Policy Report
– RPS improvement
– Load Management Standards authority
California Energy Commission
2006 Energy Legislation
AB 32
Greenhouse Gases – GHG emission reductions
AB 2021
Energy Efficiency – Statewide EE target
SB 1
Solar Energy – 3,000 MW goal
SB 107
Renewable Energy – Acceleration of RPS
SB 1059
Transmission -- Designation of corridors for future use
SB 1368
Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Emissions performance
standards for utilities
California Energy Commission
Transmission Progress
 Devers-Palo Verde No. 2
– Expected Operating Date: December 2009
 Tehachapi
– Agreed on Plan of Service
– Permitting of First Phase in Process
– Phase 2 and 3 CPCN applications 2007
 Sunrise
– Application Accepted as Adequate Sept. 2006
– Will allow 700 MW of renewable generation
 Trans-Bay Cable
– Approvals and Construction Started in 2007
California Energy Commission
Progress in Procurement
 The CPUC process is underway
 Solicitations are resulting in signed contracts
- renewables and non-renewables
 Stakeholder groups are expressing optimism
California Energy Commission
Progress With Renewables
 CPUC has approved nearly 3,000 MW of
contracts
 WREGIS is expected to be deployed in 2007
 The California Solar Initiative, beginning in
2007, has a goal of 3,000 MW of PV in ten
years
California Energy Commission
Advanced Metering Update
 PG&E
– Network deployment begun in September
– Meter deployment to begin in November in the Bakersfield
area.
 SDG&E
– CPUC decision scheduled for the first quarter of 2007.
– AMI deployment is expected to be completed mid-2008-2010.
 SCE
– Pre-deployment efforts positive: expects compatible system
available soon.
– AMI project application and business case filing expected in
July 2007.
California Energy Commission
Loading Order Still Works
 The Energy Action Plan was a valuable call to action;
there’s been too little action since
 We need more energy efficiency, more demand
response, more renewables, more fossil generation
 We’re not out of the woods yet on summer reliability
 We need to find new approaches
 We all need to take responsibility