SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Wholesale electricity market July 2016
SLIDE 1
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
SA wholesale electricity price in July was higher than in other NEM regions
Monthly average NEM price by region 2016 to date
$300
$250
July
SA:$229
TAS: Basslink outage
Jan-May
$200
$150
July
VIC:$65
$100
$50
$0
Jan
Feb
Mar
NSW1
Apr
QLD1
SA1
May
TAS1
Jun
Jul
VIC1
SLIDE 2
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
Gas fired generators generally set the average SA electricity price.
VIC and SA gas prices were high with cold weather driving demand.
VIC DWGM (average monthly price, July 15
to date)
Adelaide short-term trading market gas price:
January to July 2016
$14.00
$35.00
$30.00
$25.00
$10.00
$/GJ
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
July 2015: $5/GJ
$8.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$0.00
$2.00
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137
145
153
161
169
177
185
193
201
209
July 2016: $12.50/GJ
$12.00
July 2016
$10-$30/GJ
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
$-
Average electricity prices in VIC and NSW NEM regions tend
to be set more often by black coal power stations than by gas.
SLIDE 3
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
SA wholesale electricity price was volatile in July
30-minute wholesale electricity prices South Australia July 2016
$10,000.00
Over the month of July:
$9,000.00
1% of the time the price was below zero
25% of the time the price was below $44
50% of the time the price was below $105
75% of the time the price was below $206
95% of the time the price was below $523
99% of the time the price was below $2,485
$8,000.00
7:30pm 7 July
$8,898/MWh
$7,000.00
$6,000.00
$5,000.00
The monthly value of a hypothetical $300 price cap
would have been $98/MWh
$4,000.00
$3,000.00
5:00am 23 July
-$41/MWh
$2,000.00
$1,000.00
$0.00
1
256
511
766
1,021
1,276
-$1,000.00
SLIDE 4
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
Wholesale electricity price volatility happens in all NEM regions
Measure of volatility: calculated reduction in monthly average price if price were capped at $300/MWh throughout the month.
SLIDE 5
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
Peak prices tend to coincide with low wind and solar production, in addition to a number of factors, including; planned transmission
outage impacting interconnector flows between VIC and SA; higher than average gas and diesel prices as a result of cold weather
which increases demand, and wind variability.
Price 7 July 2016
$10,000
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
30 minutes ending
7:30pm 7 July 2016
$8,898/MWh
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
At 7:20pm on Thursday 7 July, demand was 2,139MW – near the 2,159MW daily peak. SA wind turbines
(1,600MW installed capacity) were producing 14MW in total. It was dark so solar PV production was zero.
The VIC interconnector was constrained to 50% of capacity. Local gas and distillate supply was scarce due
to cold weather and gas prices were high. The SA spot electricity price reached $8,898.
SLIDE 6
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
VIC-SA interconnector capacity was reduced 50% for augmentation works
Planned Interconnector
outage 4 July to 14 July
2016
Planned Interconnector
outage 16 July to 22 July
2016
SLIDE 7
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
Wind generation is forecastable in the short term and partially controllable.
Wind Farm Generation in South Australia
Fri 1 Jul 2016 - Sun 31 Jul 2016
1500
1300
Generation (MW)
1100
900
700
500
300
100
Capacity of largest grid-scale battery known: Southern California Edison 2014 contract with AES
Energy Storage, operation targeted for January 2021, cost not disclosed.
SLIDE 8
Mon 01 Aug
Sun 31 Jul
Sat 30 Jul
Fri 29 Jul
Thu 28 Jul
Wed 27 Jul
Tue 26 Jul
Mon 25 Jul
Sun 24 Jul
Sat 23 Jul
Fri 22 Jul
Thu 21 Jul
Wed 20 Jul
Tue 19 Jul
Date
Mon 18 Jul
Sun 17 Jul
Sat 16 Jul
Fri 15 Jul
Thu 14 Jul
Wed 13 Jul
Tue 12 Jul
Mon 11 Jul
Sun 10 Jul
Sat 09 Jul
Fri 08 Jul
Thu 07 Jul
Wed 06 Jul
Tue 05 Jul
Mon 04 Jul
Sun 03 Jul
Sat 02 Jul
Fri 01 Jul
-100
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
AEMO communication of high impact network outages to the market, e.g.:
Tailem Bend – South East #1 Outage 4-14 July 2016 (VIC-SA interconnector)
13 Month Outage Plan
• 20 Nov 2015
Network Outage Scheduler
• 23 Mar 2016
Constraint invoked
• 6 April 2016
ElectraNet Rescheduled
• 29 Jun 2016
7 Day Out Assessment
• 4 Jul 2016
Permission To Proceed
• 11 Jul 2016
Delayed due to high wind
• 12 Jul 2016
Delayed request for Permission
To Restore
• 14 Jul 2016
AEMO
website
AEMO market communication media: 13 month outage plan; network outage scheduler; market notices.
SLIDE 9
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
The price of forward contracts for SA electricity anticipated tight supply.
SLIDE 10
SOUTH AUSTRALIA JULY 2016
• There were no system security or supply reliability
issues in South Australia during the month.
• AEMO review of events has revealed no departures from
normal market rules and procedures.
SLIDE 11