Assessment of externalities from major accidents
in non-nuclear fuel chains
(Work Package 5)
Stefan Hirschberg & Peter Burgherr
Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
Alistair Hunt, University of Bath
EESD Energy Project NewExt: Mid-term Assessment Meeting
Villigen/Würenlingen, 26/27 May 2003
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Content
1. Work Performed
2. Final Database and Selected Energy Chain-Specific Results
3. Aggregated Indicators and External Costs
-
Impacts
-
Valuation
-
Estimated Damage Costs
-
Remaining (Valuation) Issues
4. Conclusions
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Progress since Paris meeting (Oct 2002)
• Full implementation of database extension to the end of
year 2000
• Evaluations based on extended database
• Resolution of valuation issues
• Report in progress
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Resolved issues
• Separation of occupational and public accidents
• Value of statistical life to be used for estimation of accidentrelated external costs
• Allocation of accidents (some sensitivities examined)
• Importance of smaller accidents (addressed to extent feasible in
view of reporting completeness)
• Evaluation of trends (some indications)
• Probabilistic analysis for hydropower (concept and example
results)
• Economic valuation (awaiting final results of WP 2; degree of
internalization established)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Severe accident definition
(as used in ENSAD)
One or several of the following consequences:
• At least 5 fatalities
• At least 10 injured
• At least 200 evacuees
• Extensive ban on consumption of food
• Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10‘000 tonnes
• Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2
• Economic loss of at least 5 million USD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of accidents in ENSAD
17911
18000
15831
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
1744
2000
7
48
Date
Unknown
before 1900
281
0
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
1900-1968
1969-2000
2001-2002
TOTAL
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Natural disasters vs. man-made accidents
350
Coal Accidents China:
1995: 240
1997: 268
Number of accidents
300
250
200
150
100
50
Natural Disasters
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Man-made, Non-energy-related
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
Man-made, Energy-related
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Natural disasters vs. man-made accidents
1000000
Number of fatalities
100000
Hydro:Banqiao/
Shimantan
26000 fatalities
10000
1000
Natural Disaster
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Man-made, Non-energy-related
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
100
Man-made, Energy-related
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Overview of accidents by type
18000
A: No consequence threshold
B: C or D or E or H
C: at least 5 fatalities
D: at least 10 injured
E: at least 200 evacuees
H: at least 5 Mio USD (2000) of economic loss
Number of Accidents
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
All accidents
Natural
Man-made
Man-made energy-related
2000
0
A
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
B
C
Man-made non-energy-related
D
E
H
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Accidents by continent (>= 5 fatalities)
50.5
Non-Energy-Related
49.4
20.8
18.7
18.8
7.7 2.2
18.9
12.2 0.9
Man-Made
Natural Disasters
Energy-Related
16.0
56.7
11.7
4.5
10.9 0.3
Coal Chain China
0%
20%
Asia
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
40%
America
60%
Africa
Europe
80%
100%
Oceania
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Major accident databases used by ENSAD
Code Name
Country of
Origin
Time
Geographical
Area
Type of Accidents
Covered
MHIDAS
UK
1900-2000
Worldwide
Industrial Accidents
HSELINE/LL
P
UK
1920-2000
Worldwide
Accidents related to
Health and Safety at
Work
PC-FACTS
Netherlands
1920-2000
Worldwide
Industrial Accidents
OFDA/
EM-DAT
USA
1900-2000
Worldwide
Man-made and Natural
Catastrophes
SIGMA
Swiss Re
Switzerland
1969-2000
Worldwide
Man-made and Natural
Catastrophes
WOAD
Norway
1970-1998
Worldwide
Offshore
ITOPF
UK
1970-2000
Worldwide
Tanker oil spills
ICOLD
France
1850-2000
Worldwide
Dam Accidents
BHDF
Austria
2500 b.C-2000
Worldwide
Dam Accidents
CCIY
China
1994-2000
China
Coal Chain Accidents
RfF
USA
1945-1991
Worldwide
Man-made and Natural
Catastrophes
MARS
European
Community
1980-1991
Europe
Industrial Accidents
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Source composition of natural disasters
6000
Number of accidents
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Other
IFRC
AFP
US Gov.
(Various)
Swiss Re
UN (Various
Organisations)
HSELINE/LLP
EM-DAT
0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Source composition of man-made non-energy-related accidents
2500
Number of accidents
2000
1500
1000
500
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
OTHER
AFP
HSELINE/LLP
R f Future
FACTS
Swiss Re
EM-DAT
MHIDAS
0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Source composition of man-made energy-related accidents
2000
1800
Number of accidents
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Other
Oil Spill Case
Histories
BBC Online News
www.fireworld.com
BASICS
R f Future
MSHA
OFDA
WOAD
HSELINE/LLP
Swiss Re
China Coal
Industry Yearbook
FACTS
MHIDAS
0
ACTMCLSHHA
200
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Severe accidents with at least 5 fatalities
OECD
Energy chain
Coal
Accidents
75
EU-15
Fatalities
2259
Accidents
11
Non-OECD
Fatalities
Accidents
Fatalities
234
102
1044
4831
18'017
(a)
(a)
Oil
165
3790
58
1141
234
16'523
Natural Gas
80
978
24
229
45
1000
LPG
59
1905
19
515
46
2016
Hydro
1
14
0
0
10
29924
(b)
(a) First line: Coal non-OECD w/o China; second line: Coal China
(b) Banqiao and Shimantan dam failures together caused 26 000 fatalities
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Energy-related accidents for four gravity indices
350
>100 fatalities
51 to 100 fatalities
21 to 50 fatalities
5 to 20 fatalities
Number of accidents
300
Data from
CCIY available
250
200
150
100
50
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Energy-related accidents for four gravity indices
6000
>100 fatalities
51 to 100 fatalities
21 to 50 fatalities
5 to 20 fatalities
Number of fatalities
5000
Data from
CCIY available
4000
3000
2000
1000
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Actual vs. reported accidents
Number of Accidents
16
14
12
Reported Accidents
10
Actual Accidents
8
6
4
2
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
Seriousness
• There is a discrepancy between the number of accidents that actually
occur and those that are published.
• The relatively rare major accidents have a much greater probability of
being publicised than the much more frequent accidents that cause less
severe damage or danger.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Smaller vs. severe accidents
Coal
OECD
11
2
210
MSHA
non-OECD
2
China
2
2
12
3
OECD
178
59
Oil
209
Hydro
LPG
Natural
Gas
non-OECD
26
OECD
30
non-OECD
9
6
30
5
84
39
110
18
OECD
non-OECD
1to4 fat, other small
1to4 fat, other severe
0 fat, other small
134
43
49
13
13
1
1
1
OECD
non-OECD
0
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
50
100
150
200
250
Number of accidents
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Smaller vs. severe accidents
25
Coal
OECD
6
217
MSHA
36
non-OECD
4
4
6
China
307
OECD
Oil
118
non-OECD
Hydro
LPG
Natural
Gas
1to4 fat, other small
308
45
1to4 fat, other severe
84
OECD
64
32
26
non-OECD
71
OECD
57
32
non-OECD
13
1
3
OECD
0
non-OECD0
0
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Number of fatalities
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Smaller accidents in coal mining in the USA (1995-2001)
50
Number of accidents or fatalities
45
46
40
Fatalities
Accidents
38
42
39
38
33
30
29
30
28
38
34
29
29
20
10
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
* Including one large accident with 13 fatalities
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
1999
2000
2001
*
Analysis based on MSHA statistics
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Coal chain – number of severe accidents
OECD vs. non-OECD w/o China
10
Number of accidents:
OECD: 75 (EU15: 11)
non-OECD w/o China: 102
No of Accidents
8
6
4
2
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
non-OECD w/o China
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Coal Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidents
OECD vs. non-OECD w/o China
600
Bulwayo (ZWE): 434 fat.
Number of fatalities:
OECD: 2259 (EU15: 234)
non-OECD w/o China: 4831
500
NA (IND):300 fat.
No of Fatalities
400
Dbanbad (Ind): 372 fat.
Cuenca (ECU): 200 fat.
300
Kozlu (TUR): 272 fat.
Barotean
(MEX): 180 fat.
200
100
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
non-OECD w/o China
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of fatalities in severe accidents
by coal chain stages (1969-2000)
97.5 99.2
100
OECD
Shares (%)
80
non-OECD w/o China
China
72.9
60
40
24.1
20
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.2
Waste
Storage/Disposal
0.7
Heating + Power
Plant
Extraction
0.7
Transport
1.5
0.2
Exploration
0
0.0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Coal chain – number of severe accidents in China
300
China Coal
Industry Yearbook
Number of accidents:
Total: 1044
1994-1999: 819
Number of accidents
250
200
150
100
50
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Coal Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidents in China
3500
China Coal
Industry Yearbook
Number of fatalities:
Total: 18'017
1994-1999: 11'334
3000
Number of accidents
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil Chain – number of severe accidents
OECD vs. non-OECD
25
Number of accidents:
OECD: 165 (EU15: 58)
non-OECD: 234
Number of accidents
20
15
10
5
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil Chain – number of fatalities in severe accidents
OECD vs. non-OECD
6000
Number of fatalities:
OECD: 3790 (EU15: 1141)
non-OECD: 16523
Number of fatalities
5000
off coast Mindoro (PHL): 4375 fat.
4000
3000
Salang Pass (AFG): 2700 fat.
Warri (NIG): 900 fat.
Guadalajara (MEX): 252 fat.
2000
Seoul (KOR): 577 fat.
Dronka (EGY): 580 fat.
1000
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of fatalities in severe accidents
by oil chain stages (1969-2000)
60
OECD
non-OECD
49.2
50
43.2
40
29.7
30
20
15.8
10
6.0
3.6
2.2
1.6
0.4 0.2
0.2 1.0
Power Plant
1.2
2.9
Heating
Shares (%)
40.7
2.2
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NA
Regional
Distribution
Refinery
Transport to
Refinery
Extraction
Exploration
0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Others
Operational discharges (vessels >= 100 GT)
Land-based (river and runoff)
Transportation of
Petroleum
Consumption of
Petroleum
Input of oil to the sea
Others
Tank vessel spills
Pipeline spills
Extraction of Petroleum
Natural Seeps
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Average annual release (in thousands of tonnes)
Source: modified from Committee on Oil in the Sea, 2003
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Distribution of oil spill accidents
>100'000 t
25'000 - 99'999 t
10'000 -24'999 t
5000 - 9999 t
1000 - 4999 t
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Number of accidents
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil spills facts (1969-2000)
• 118 offshore and 38 onshore oil spills >10’000 tonnes between 1969
and 2000.
• The biggest spill ever occurred during Gulf War II in 1991 when
between 768’000 and 1’472’000 tonnes spilled from oil terminals and
tankers.
• The second biggest spill occurred over a ten-month period (June
1979 - February 1980) when 480’000 tonnes spilled at the Ixtoc I well
blowout in the Gulf of Mexico near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico.
• In comparison, the largest tanker spill had a size of about 290’000
tonnes (Sea Empress / Aegean Captain; 1979)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil spills facts (1969-2000) cont.
• Overall, few very large spills were responsible for a high percentage
of the total oil spilled in tanker accidents in the period 1969-2000.
• But the magnitude of the impact is primarily depending on distance
to the coast, weather and current conditions, whereas the amount
and type of oil spilled may often be of secondary importance.
• For example, the Exxon Valdez accident (Prince William Sound,
Alaska, USA) in 1989 was relatively small with 37’000 tonnes oil lost,
but it occurred close to the coastline and wind current moved the oil
slick to the beaches leading to an ecological disaster.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Largest tanker spills (1969 – 2000)
Shipname
Year
Location
Distance from
coast (km)
Oil spilled
(t)
32
450
287’000
1’287
260’000
64
255’500
0.5-1
228’000
in port
144’000
NE of Saint John's, Newfoundland
1175
137’600
1972
Gulf of Oman
N.A.
127’800
Irenes Serenade
1980
Pylos, Navarino Bay, Greece
N.A.
118’000
Independenta
1979
Bosphorus strait near Istanbul,
Turkey
0.8
109’000
Atlantic Empress/
Aegean Captain
1979
off Trinidad/Tobago and
Barbados
ABT Summer
1991
off Angola
Castillo de Bellver
1983
off Table Bay, South Africa
Amoco Cadiz
1978
off Brittany, France
Haven
1991
Genoa, Italy
Odyssey
1988
Sea Star
Texaco Denmark
1971
North Sea
Exxon Valdez
1989
Prince William Sound, Alaska
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
(from Hydarpasa port)
N.A.
106’300
near shore
37’000
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil spills >10‘000 tonnes (1969 – 2000)
14
12
Number of accidents
10
8
6
4
2
Offshore
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
Onshore
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Oil Spills >10‘000 tonnes (1969 – 2000)
1'600'000
Gulf War II: 1'472'000 t
1'400'000
Oil spilled in tonnes
1'200'000
Ixtoc-1: 480'000 t
Atlantic Empress/Aegan
Captain: 287'000 t
1'000'000
Vergana Valley,
Oil Well: 281'600 t
Kharyaga-Usinsk
Pipeline: 272'800 t
Nowruz 4 Platform:
266'700 t
Castillo de Bellver:
255'500 t
800'000
600'000
Amoco Cadiz:
228'000 t
Colombo, Storage
Depot: 300'000 t
ABT Summer:
260'000 t
400'000
w/o Gulf War
200'000
Offshore
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Onshore
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
Reihe5
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Natural gas chain – number of severe accidents
OECD vs. non-OECD
8
Number of accidents:
OECD: 80 (EU15: 24)
non-OECD: 45
7
Number of accidents
6
5
4
3
2
1
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Natural gas chain – number of fatalities in severe accidents
OECD vs. non-OECD
250
Number of fatalities:
OECD: 978 (EU15: 229)
non-OECD: 1000
Tejerias (VEN): 80 fat.
Shenzen (CHN): 70 fat.
Baohe (CHN): 70 fat.
Number of fatalities
200
Taegu (KOR): 109 fat.
150
Gulf of Thailand (THA): 93 fat.
Tbilissi (GEO): 100 fat.
Osaka (JPN): 92 fat.
100
50
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of fatalities in severe accidents
by natural gas chain stages (1969-2000)
50
OECD
39.6
40
Shares (%)
non-OECD
30
27.8
21.7
20
21.0
17.3
17.9
16.6
16.7
11.9
10
4.4
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2.3
0.0
Power Plant
Heating
Local
Distribution
Regional
Distribution
Long
Distance
Transport
1.1
0.0
NA
1.8
Extraction
Exploration
0
0.0
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
LPG chain – number of severe accidents
OECD vs. non-OECD
7
Number of accidents:
OECD: 59 (EU15: 19)
non-OECD: 46
6
Number of accidents
5
4
3
2
1
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
LPG chain – number of fatalities in severe accidents
OECD vs. non-OECD
700
Number of fatalities:
OECD: 1905 (EU15: 515)
non-OECD: 2016
600
Asha-Ufa (RUS): 600 fat.
Mexico City (MEX): 498 fat.
Number of fatalities
500
400
Los Alfaques (ESP): 216 fat.
300
Nile River /EGY):
317 fat.
200
Seoul (KOR): 169 fat.
100
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
0
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of fatalities in severe accidents
by LPG chain stages (1969-2000)
80
72.1
OECD
non-OECD
Shares (%)
60
42.1
40
32.6
19.1
20
11.8
9.9
1.3
3.5
0.7
3.3
2.9
0.7
0
Processing
(Refinery)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Long
Distance
Transport
Regional
Distribution
Local
Distribution
Heating
NA
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Occupational vs. public accidents
Coal
OECD
non-OECD w/o China
Hydro
Natural
LPG
Gas
Oil
China
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
OECD
non-OECD
0%
20%
Public
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
40%
60%
80%
100%
Occupational
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Number of severe accidents and aggregated rates (1969-2000)
Energy
Chain
Number of fatalities per GWeyr
Number of severe
accidents worldwide with fatalities Worldwide
No allocation
With allocation
OECD
NonOECD
OECD
NonOECD
# accidents / # fatalities
Coal
1221 / 25'107
0.876
0.157
1.605
0.185
1.576
Oil
399 / 20'313
0.436
0.135
0.898
0.393
0.503
Natural
Gas
125 / 1'978
0.093
0.080
0.111
0.091
0.096
LPG
105 / 3'921
3.536
1.957
14.896
3.317
5.112
Hydro
(*)
11 / 29'938
10 / 3'938
4.265
0.561
0.003
10.285
1.349
0.003
10.285
1.349
1 / 31
6.4·10-3
0
0.048
0
0.048
Nuclear
(*) second line: Banqiao/Shimantan accident with 26‘000 fatalities excluded
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Aggregated fatality rates for severe accidents
OECD
0.157
Coal
EU15
0.057
non-OECD w/o China
0.597
1.605
non-OECD with China
China
2.930
Oil
China 1994-1999
6.169
OECD
0.135
EU15
0.127
Natural
Gas
non-OECD
0.898
OECD
0.080
EU15
0.076
non-OECD
0.111
LPG
OECD
1.957
EU15
1.673
non-OECD
Hydro
OECD
14.896
0.003
EU15 NA
non-OECD
10.285
non-OECD w/o Banqiao/Shimantan
1.E-3
1.349
1.E-2
1.E-1
1.E+0
1.E+1
1.E+2
Fat/GWeyr
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Severe accidents indicators
OECD, EU-15 and non-OECD countries
(no allocation)
Affected people / GWeyr
1.E+3
Fatalities
Injured
Evacuees
1.E+2
1.E+1
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
Coal
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Oil
Natural Gas
LPG
Hydro
non-OECD
EU15
OECD
non-OECD w/o
Banqiao/Shimantan
non-OECD
EU15
OECD
non-OECD
EU15
OECD
non-OECD
EU15
OECD
non-OECD
EU15
OECD
China 1994-1999
China
non-OECD w/o
China
non-OECD with
China
EU15
OECD
1.E-3
Nuclear
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
OECD, no allocation, 1969-2000
Frequency of events causing X or
more fatalities per GWeyr
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
1.E-4
1.E-5
1
10
100
1000
Fatalities, X
Coal
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Oil
Natural Gas
LPG
Hydro
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
EU-15, no allocation, 1969-2000
Frequency of events causing X or
more fatalities per GWeyr
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
1.E-4
1.E-5
1
10
100
1000
Fatalities, X
Coal
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Oil
Natural Gas
LPG
Hydro (OECD)
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
non-OECD, no allocation, 1969-2000
Frequency of events causing X or
more fatalities per GWeyr
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
1.E-4
1.E-5
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Fatalities, X
Coal w/o China
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Coal China
Oil
Natural Gas
LPG
Hydro
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
Coal chain, no allocation, 1969-2000
Frequency of events causing X or
more fatalities per GWeyr
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
1.E-4
1.E-5
1
10
100
1000
Fatalities, X
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
EU15
non-OECD w/o China
China
China 94-99
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
Oil chain, no allocation, 1969-2000
Frequency of events causing X or
more fatalities per GWeyr
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
1.E-4
1.E-5
1
10
100
1000
10000
Fatalities, X
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
EU15
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
Natural gas chain, no allocation, 1969-2000
Frequency of events causing X or
more fatalities per GWeyr
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
1.E-4
1.E-5
1
10
100
1000
Fatalities, X
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
EU15
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
LPG chain, no allocation, 1969-2000
Frequency of events causing X or
more fatalities per GWeyr
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
1.E-4
1.E-5
1
10
100
1000
Fatalities, X
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
EU15
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents
Hydro chain, no allocation, 1969-2000
Frequency of events causing X or
more fatalities per GWeyr
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
1.E-4
1.E-5
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Fatalities, X
OECD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
non-OECD
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
EU-15, no allocation
Coal fuel chain - Pulverized coal plant with FGD, 36% eff.
Impacts
Fat/Mtoe
Damages
Cents / kWhe
External Costs
Cents / kWhe
Total
2.64 E-2
2.18E-03
4.80E-04
Occupational
2.46 E-2
2.03E-03
4.05E-04
Public
1.80 E-3
1.49E-04
7.44E-05
Gas fuel chain - Gas IGCC plant, 58% eff.
Impacts
Fat/Mtoe
Damages
Cents / kWhe
External Costs
Cents / kWhe
Total
3.54E-02
1.81E-03
8.65E-04
Occupational
2.79E-03
1.43E-04
2.85E-05
Public
3.27E-02
1.67E-03
8.36E-04
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Calculations
Expected fatalities from severe accidents – Coal fuel chain
(0.28 FAT) (1
MTOE) (1 TOE) ( 1 GJt) (3.6 GJe) = 7.00 x 10-8 FAT
( 1 MTOE) (10+6 TOE) (40 GJt) (0.36 GJe) ( 1 Mwhe)
MWhe
Expected fatalities from severe accidents – Gas fuel chain
(0.06 FAT ) (1
MTOE) (1 TOE) ( 1 GJt) (3.6 GJe) = 9.31 x 10-9 FAT
( 1 MTOE) (10+6 TOE ) (40 GJt) (0.58 GJe) ( 1 Mwhe)
MWhe
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Remaining Valuation (and Other) Issues
• Valuation of injuries, evacuees and oil spills
• Degree of internalization in non-OECD countries
• Representation of small accidents (discussion, internalization assumed)
• Nuclear energy not adequately treated in ExternE
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Conclusions (I)
•
Comprehensive
historical
experience
of
energy-related
severe accidents based on PSI's ENSAD.
•
Damages associated with severe accidents are rather small
compared to natural disasters.
•
Statistical basis for OECD countries is much broader than
for EU-15, and considered representative also for the latter.
•
Energy-related accident risks in non-OECD countries are
distinctly higher than in OECD countries.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003
Conclusions (II)
•
Hydropower in non-OECD countries and upstream stages
within fossil energy chains are most accident-prone.
•
Expected fatality rates are lowest for western hydropower
and nuclear power plants. However, the maximum credible
consequences are very large. The associated risk valuation
is subject to stakeholder value judgements and can be
pursued in multi-criteria decision analysis.
•
External
costs
associated
with
severe
accidents
are
generally much smaller than monetized damages caused by
air pollution.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt Fourth Progress Meeting, Villigen PSI, 26/27 May 2003