Commonwealth Bank-CoreLogic RP Data Home Buyers Index (HBI) October 2015
Released November 2015
Nationally selling conditions remained balanced over the past quarter with much diversity
across the capital cities and regions
At a national level housing market conditions remained
relatively balanced between buyers and sellers, while
selling conditions in Sydney and Melbourne remain
significantly in favour of sellers.
The Commonwealth Bank–CoreLogic RP Data Home Buyers Index
provides an indication of how well market conditions are suited to
buyers or sellers. The Index is based on the ratio of properties
advertised for sale compared with the number of housing loans
which are being committed to by customers of Australia’s largest
mortgage lender, Commonwealth Bank. Where the number of
properties being advertised for sale outweighs the number of
mortgage commitments (adjusted for market share), the market is
considered to be in favour of the buyer; effective supply is
outweighing demand. Where new home loans are outweighing the
number of homes being advertised for sale, market conditions
generally favour the seller.
At a national level, the ratio of buyers to effective supply across the
Australian real estate market has shifted slightly in favour of buyers
over the past three months, resulting in a housing market which
remains balanced between buyers and sellers. Total advertised
stock levels are generally in line with the number of home loans
funded, suggesting that current market conditions, at least at a
national level, are balanced.
As at October 2015, across each state, the results were quite
different; in Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and Northern
Territory market conditions were skewed towards the buyer. Most
other states were showing relatively balanced conditions while
conditions in Victoria and Australian Capital Territory favoured sellers.
Conditions across the capital cities were typically more balanced or
in favour of the seller, reflecting a different balance between
advertised stock levels and demonstrated buyer demand in
metropolitan versus regional housing markets. The results also
reflected the higher levels of buyer demand compared with stock
levels which were occurring in the Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide
and Canberra markets where overall conditions favour the seller
rather than buyer. Conditions in Brisbane, Hobart and Darwin
favour the buyer while conditions are balanced in Perth.
Index scores are based on the ratio of homes available for sale compared with
the number of mortgage commitments adjusted for market share. 1 – Extreme
buyer’s market, 2 – Buyer’s market, 3 – Balanced market, 4 – Seller’s market, 5
– Extreme seller’s market
HBI by state – October 2015
State
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
WA
TAS
NT
ACT
National
HBI
Score
Oct-14
3
3
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
HBI
Score
Jul-15
3
4
2
3
2
1
2
4
3
HBI
Score
Oct-15
3
4
2
3
2
1
2
4
3
Comments
Balanced market
Seller’s market
Buyer’s market
Balanced market
Buyer’s market
Extreme buyer’s market
Buyer’s market
Seller’s market
Balanced market
HBI by capital city – October 2015
City
HBI
Score
Oct-14
HBI
Score
Jul-15
HBI
Score
Oct-15
Comments
Sydney
4
5
5
Extreme seller’s market
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
4
2
3
3
1
2
3
5
3
3
3
2
3
4
5
2
4
3
2
2
4
Extreme seller’s market
Buyer’s market
Seller’s market
Balanced market
Buyer’s market
Buyer’s market
Seller’s market
National Home Buyers Index over time
Seller’s market
Balanced market
Buyer’s market
Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15
Page 1 of 4
Commonwealth Bank-CoreLogic Home Buyers Index (HBI)
October 2015
Across the capital cities
Sydney (Extreme seller’s market)
Although conditions are still well in truly in favour of sellers,
the magnitude has eased over the past year however, demand
for homes continues to significantly outweigh the number of
homes available.
Melbourne (Extreme seller’s market)
Melbourne’s housing market conditions have eased slightly toward
buyers over the quarter but continue to favour sellers over buyers.
Like Sydney, there is a relative shortage of stock for sale relative to
the number of buyers currently active in the market.
Brisbane (Buyer’s market)
Selling conditions across Brisbane have remained relatively steady
over the past three months however, the slight change has resulted
in conditions slipping from being balanced to favouring buyers.
Although conditions favour buyers, if vendors set a price the market
deems reasonable, they should not find it too difficult to sell.
Adelaide (Seller’s market)
With stock levels remaining relatively firm and mortgage demand
showing a modest rise, Adelaide has shifted from balanced market
conditions three months ago to conditions that are now more
favourable for sellers. When negotiating on the sale of a home
currently in Adelaide, sellers are likely to have a slightly stronger
negotiating position than buyers.
Perth (Balanced market)
The Perth housing market has remained a balanced market over
the past year. Stock levels and housing demand is in relative
equilibrium with neither side of the sales process having significant
power in negotiations over the other.
Hobart (Buyer’s market)
Hobart’s index is unchanged over the past three months,
continuing to show conditions which are more favourable for
buyers rather than sellers. Effective supply continues to outweigh
effective demand, which results in a stronger negotiation position
for buyers.
Darwin (Buyer’s market)
Selling conditions across the Darwin housing market have
remained weak over the past year with the housing market
continuing to favour buyers over sellers. Active buyers have more
stock to choose from than a year ago and their purchase decision
is no longer as rushed as it once was when market conditions
were much stronger.
Top 10 best sellers’ markets, national
Rank
Region
State
HBI Indicator
1
Sydney
NSW
Extreme seller’s market
2
Melbourne
VIC
Extreme seller’s market
3
Adelaide
SA
Seller’s market
4
Canberra
ACT
Seller’s market
5
Central Highlands
VIC
Seller’s market
6
Ovens-Murray
VIC
Seller’s market
7
Loddon
VIC
Balanced market
8
Barwon
VIC
Balanced market
9
Illawarra
NSW
Balanced market
10
Outer Adelaide
SA
Balanced market
Predominately regions within Victoria are showing the best overall
selling conditions and this is reflected in the adjacent data.
Australia’s two largest capital cities (Sydney and Melbourne)
along with Adelaide and Canberra are the four strongest markets
for selling a residential property. The best sellers’ market list
includes four capital cities with each of the non-capital city
regions except Illawarra and Outer Adelaide located in Victoria.
Top 10 best buyers’ markets, national
Rank Region
State
HBI Indicator
1
Northern
SA
Extreme buyer’s market
3
Wide Bay-Burnett
QLD
Extreme buyer’s market
3
Central West
QLD
Extreme buyer’s market
4
Far West
NSW
Extreme buyer’s market
5
Pilbara
WA
Extreme buyer’s market
6
Mackay
QLD
Extreme buyer’s market
7
South West
QLD
Extreme buyer’s market
8
West Moreton
QLD
Extreme buyer’s market
9
Mersey-Lyell
TAS
Extreme buyer’s market
10
Southern
TAS
Extreme buyer’s market
Regions associated with the mining sector dominate the list for
the best markets for buyers nationally. There are no capital cities
listed as best buyer’s markets and most are regions linked to the
resources sector. All of those areas listed are seeing a heightened
level of homes available for sale relative to current demand.
Although the markets are defined as buyer’s markets, the reality
is very few buyers are looking to purchase in these regions.
Canberra (Balanced market)
Conditions across the Canberra housing market remain in favour
of the seller over the past three month. Sellers are outnumbered
by the number of people actively looking to purchase.
Page 2 of 4
Commonwealth Bank-CoreLogic Home Buyers Index (HBI)
October 2015
HBI for Sydney regions
Region
Oct- Jul- Oct- HBI Indicator
14
15
15
Blacktown
Canterbury-Bankstown
Central Northern Sydney
Central Western Sydney
Eastern Suburbs
Fairfield-Liverpool
Gosford-Wyong
Inner Sydney
Inner Western Sydney
Lower Northern Sydney
Northern Beaches
Outer South Western
Sydney
Outer Western Sydney
St George-Sutherland
5
4
4
5
4
5
3
5
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
5
4
3
5
4
4
5
5
Extreme seller’s market
Seller’s market
Extreme seller’s market
Extreme seller’s market
Extreme seller’s market
Seller’s market
Balanced market
Extreme seller’s market
Seller’s market
Seller’s market
Extreme seller’s market
Extreme seller’s market
4
4
5
4
4
4
Seller’s market
Seller’s market
Sydney is currently experiencing strong selling conditions for
residential property and this is reflected when you look at
individual areas. The majority of Sydney regions are showing
extreme or seller’s market’ conditions. Only Gosford-Wyong is
showing conditions which are balanced with all other regions
seeing conditions favourable to sellers.
HBI for Melbourne regions
Region
Oct- Jul- Oct- HBI Indicator
14
15
15
Boroondara City
Eastern Middle
Melbourne
Eastern Outer Melbourne
Frankston City
Greater Dandenong City
Hume City
Inner Melbourne
Melton-Wyndham
Moreland City
Mornington Peninsula
Shire
Northern Middle
Melbourne
Northern Outer
Melbourne
South Eastern Outer
Melbourne
Southern Melbourne
Western Melbourne
Yarra Ranges Shire Part A
3
4
5
4
4
4
Seller’s market
Seller’s market
4
3
3
5
3
4
3
2
5
5
4
5
4
5
4
3
5
4
4
5
3
5
5
3
Extreme seller’s market
Seller’s market
Seller’s market
Extreme seller’s market
Balanced market
Extreme seller’s market
Extreme seller’s market
Balanced market
4
5
5
Extreme seller’s market
5
5
5
Extreme seller’s market
5
5
5
Extreme seller’s market
3
4
4
5
5
5
4
4
5
Seller’s market
Seller’s market
Extreme seller’s market
Overall Melbourne’s housing market conditions are more in
favour of the seller than the buyer. Only Mornington Peninsula
Shire is showing balanced conditions. In all other regions
conditions favour sellers over buyers.
HBI for Brisbane regions
Region
Oct- Jul14
15
Oct15
HBI Indicator
Beaudesert Shire Part A
Caboolture Shire
2
1
2
1
3
1
Inner Brisbane
Ipswich City
Logan City
Northwest Inner Brisbane
Northwest Outer Brisbane
Pine Rivers Shire
Redcliffe City
3
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
1
Redland Shire
Southeast Inner Brisbane
Southeast Outer Brisbane
2
3
3
2
3
4
2
3
3
Buyer’s market
Extreme buyer’s
market
Buyer’s market
Buyer’s market
Buyer’s market
Balanced market
Balanced market
Balanced market
Extreme buyer’s
market
Buyer’s market
Balanced market
Balanced market
The Brisbane housing market is broadly showing conditions
which are slightly more in favour of the buyer than the seller.
The regions closer to the Central Business District typically show
more balanced conditions than those further afield which are
typically in favour of the buyer.
HBI for Adelaide regions
Region
Oct14
Jul15
Oct15
HBI Indicator
Eastern Adelaide
Northern Adelaide
Southern Adelaide
Western Adelaide
3
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
Seller’s market
Seller’s market
Seller’s market
Seller’s market
The Adelaide market was showing seller’s market conditions
across all regions in October 2015.
Page 3 of 4
Commonwealth Bank-CoreLogic Home Buyers Index (HBI)
October 2015
HBI for Perth regions
Region
Oct14
Jul15
Oct15
HBI Indicator
Central Metropolitan
East Metropolitan
North Metropolitan
South East Metropolitan
South West Metropolitan
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
Buyer’s market
Balanced market
Balanced market
Balanced market
Balanced market
Housing conditions have remained balanced between buyers and
sellers across Perth over the past year. This trend was reflected
across each individual region of the city except Central Metropolitan
where conditions are in favour of the buyer.
Disclaimer In compiling this publication, CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources and CoreLogic does not warrant its
accuracy or completeness. To the full extent allowed by law CoreLogic excludes all liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person or body
corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of any part of the information in this publication. CoreLogic recommends that individuals
undertake their own research and seek independent financial advice before making any decisions. © 2015 CoreLogic.
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