HyMeX
HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean
EXperiment
Silvio Davolio, ISAC CNR, Bologna
Riunione “Hymex-ITALIA”, 7 giugno 2010, Bologna, CNR
HyMeX objectives
Motivations, societal stakes
The Mediterranean basin:
A nearly enclosed sea surrounded by very urbanized littorals
and mountains from which numerous rivers originate
⇒ A unique highly coupled system ( Ocean-Atmosphere-Continent)
⇒ A region prone to high-impact events related to water cycle:
Heavy precipitation, flash-flooding during fall
Severe cyclogenesis, strong winds, large swell during winters
Droughts, heat waves, forest fires during summers
⇒ Water resources: a critical issue
Freshwater is rare and unevenly distributed in a situation of
increasing water demands and climate change (180 millions
people face water scarcity)
⇒ The Mediterranean is one of the two main hot spot regions
of the climate change
⇒ Need to advance our knowledge on processes related to water cycle within all
Earth compartments, to progress in the predictability of high-impact weather
events and their evolution with global change.
HyMeX objectives
Scientific topics
to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the
predictability and evolution of intense events
by monitoring and modelling:
the Mediterranean coupled system (atmosphere-land-ocean), its variability
(from the event scale, to the seasonal and interannual scales) and
characteristics over one decade (2010-2020) in the context of global change
to evaluate the societal
and economical
vulnerability to extreme
events and the adaptation
capacity.
Main Scientific Topics
Key questions:
What is the variability of the
components of the water cycle
(precipitation, evaporation, runoff, transport, etc) within a context
of global climate change ?
What are the impacts on the water
resources ?
Better understanding of the
long-term water cycle over
the Mediterranean basin:
variability and trend
WG1: Mediterranean Sea Water Budget
WG leaders: Annarita Mariotti (ENEA/UMD)
Wolfgang Ludwig (CEFREM)
Samuel Somot (CNRM)
•WG1-SQ1: What are the long-term mean values of the Mediterranean Sea Water Budget
(MSWB) components and associated uncertainties?
•WG1-SQ2: What is the variability of the MSWB at seasonal, interannual and decadal timescales?
•WG1-SQ3: How do spatially and/or temporally localized intense events affect the MSWB?
•WG1-SQ4: How will the MSWB evolve under future-climate conditions along the 21st
century?
Mediterranean circulation
D
B
R E
P
WG2: Hydrological Continental Cycle
WG leaders: Braud Isabelle
Chanzy André
Viterbo Pedro
8-Adige
2-Po
1-Rhône
6-Ebre
5-Neretva
3-Drin- Evros
Buna
Jucar
7-Tevere
Segura
Axios/
Vadar
Chelif
Moulouya
Medjerda
Strymon
10-Ceyhan
Gediz
9-Seyhan
Menderez
Asi-Orontes
4-Nil
•WG2-SQ1: How to quantify the water cycle components over the Mediterranean basin
through an improved hydro-meteorological framework?
•WG2-SQ2: Can we better understand the specificities of the hydrological
in the
Source processes
: Margat, 2004
Mediterranean? Can we improve the whole Mediterranean basin simulation of the
continental hydrological cycle by better accounting for specific Mediterranean
characteristics?
•WG2-SQ3: How will the continental hydrological cycle evolve in relation to global
change?
HyMeX organization
International environment
complies with the
WWRP/THORPEX
objectives:
to advance knowledge of
high-impact weather,
to improve the accuracy of
the forecasts of these events,
to understand and optimise
the utilisation of the forecast
by the society
WG3: Heavy Precipitation and Flash-flooding
WG leaders: Guy Delrieu (LTHE)
Alberto Montanari (UniBo)
Romualdo Romero (UIB)
Evelyne Richard (LA-CNRS)
WG3-SQ1: What are the characteristics of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the
Mediterranean ?
WG3-SQ2: How can we improve heavy rainfall process knowledge and their prediction ?
WG3-SQ3: How can we improve hydrological prediction?
WG3-SQ4: How will extreme hydro-meteorological events evolve under future climate
conditions during the XXIst century?
9 September 2002
Le pont du Gard
WG4: Intense Air-Sea Exchanges
WG leaders: Karine Béranger, Claude Estournel, Simon Josey,
Kostas Lagouvardos, Branka Ivancan Picek
WG4-SQ1: How Mediterranean cyclogenesis, local topography and land-sea
distribution interact to produce strong winds?
WG4-SQ2: How air-sea fluxes are modulated?
WG4-SQ3: How does the Mediterranean Sea response to the atmosphere?
Vents régionaux (D’après Lionello et al, 2006)
Major sites of dense Water formation
Major sites of deep Water formation
Influence of coastal waters
WG5: Vulnerability Factors and Adaptation Capacity
WG Leaders: M.C. Llasat
C. Lutoff
I.Ruin
•WG5-SQ1: What methods, indicators and sensors may be used to monitor short-term and
long-term adaptation strategies at various space scales and for different cultural contexts?
•WG5-SQ2: What lessons can be learnt from the experience of different societies and
individuals to better cope with climate change and hydrometeorological extreme events
around the Mediterranean Sea?
•WG5-SQ3: How can we make these lessons beneficial and relevant for all Mediterranean
communities?
WG5-SQ4: How can we define plausible
scenarios (land use, economy,...) to
quantify the impact of global change on
the Mediterranean hydrological cycle and
extremes?
WG5-SQ5: How is vulnerability of humans
and ecosystems going to change under
future global change?
1990-2006
Perchè nasce dalla
comunità francese ?
www.dt.insu.cnrs.fr/c-med/documents.php
HyMeX organization
Main documents
We are here
ISSC
International Scientific
Steering Committee
5 WGs
Observation strategy
« Nested » approach necessary to tackle the whole range of processes and
interactions and estimate budgets
Enhanced existing observatories and
operational observing systems in the key
regions of high-impact events: budgets and
process studies
(+ dedicated short field campaigns)
Western Med
+ Greece
SOP
Phasing with other international
experimental programs (T-NAWDEX,
HALO, MEDEX)
Enhanced current operational observing
system over the whole Mediterranean
basin: budgets
(data access ‘data policy’)
Eastern
Med ?
Special observing periods of high-impact events
in selected regions of the EOP target areas
(aircrafts, ships,…): process studies
HyMeX objectives
Implementation strategy
Organisation for the elaboration of the
International Science Plan (ISP)
Science Working Groups
• WG1 - Water Budget of the Mediterranean Sea
• WG2 – Hydrological Continental Cycle
• WG3 – Heavy Rainfall, flash-floods and floods
• WG4 – Intense air-sea interactions
• WG5 – Societal and economical impacts
Organisation for the elaboration of the
International Implementation Plan (IIP)
• Observation Task Team (TTO)
• Modelling Task Team (TTM)
• Team Support (TS)
Observations Task Teams (TTO)
• TTO1- Sounding the atmosphere
TTO1a - Radiosounding and AMDAR observations
• TTO2
Hydrological
and
soil
measurements
TTO1b - Balloons
• TTO3
surface fluxes
TTO1c- - Measuring
Wind profilers (UHF/VHF/Wind
Lidar) over land
TTO1d - GPS and Photometers
• TTO4
- Sounding the ocean
TTO1e - Water Vapour Lidars and Microwave radiometers
• TTO5
- Measuring air-sea fluxes
TTO1f - Radar
TTO1g- -Measuring
Microphysics and
aerosols
• TTO6
land-sea
fluxes
TTO1h - Lightning
• TTO7 - Monitoring vulnerability factors
Modelling Task Team (TTM)
• TTM1- High-resolution (coupled, ensemble)
modelling platforms for intense events
• TTM2- Multiscale modelling of the continental
surfaces
• TTM3-Regional Climate modelling
(Atmosphere-Ocean-Land)
• TTM4-Data assimilation
Team Support
TS1 - Data base
TS2 - Satellite products
TS3 - Hydrometeorological sites
TS4 - Atmospheric sites and supersites
TS5 - Aircraft operations
TS6 - Ocean operations
TS7 - Real-time modelling forecast during SOP/EOP
TS8 - SOP Operation Coordination
LINK CON ALTRI PROGETTI
1. Official endorsment of HyMeX by WWRP
WWRP THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment of
the World Weather Research Programme) seeks to accelerate improvements in the
accuracy of 1-14 day forecasts of high-impact weather.
2. Offical endorsment by WCRP/GEWEX expected at the 2nd PanGEWEX Science Meeting (23-27 August 2010, Seattle, USA)
WCRP-GEWEX (as part of the Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations
Project) has been formally asked in April 2009. Discussions are ongoing about
HyMeX becoming a CEOP/RHP (Regional Hydrological Project) with several sites
in the Mediterranean proposed as long-term reference site
3.
Coordination with MEDEX
4. MedCLIVAR:
strong collaboration: HyMeX representative in the MedCLIVAR steering committee.
MedCLIVAR representative in the HyMeX steering committee. Waiting for
endorsement?
5.
MOON: collaboration to be strengthened
I. FUNDING AT NATIONAL LEVELS
• In France, the consortium of the main French agencies (CIO) has evaluated
the French direct contribution to HyMeX to ~9 M€ (without salaries) between
2009 and 2015 with a peak of ~8M€ between 2011 and 2013.
The CIO proposes to build-up an International Governing Board of agencies
ready to support financially the HyMeX project through national funding or
through bi- or multi-lateral co-funding actions and willing to promote the project
to international funding agencies (EU, …).
II. POTENTIAL EUROPEAN FUNDING
• INTERREG-MED Call
• FP7
• CBC Mediterranean Sea Basin Programme
III. HyMeX-USA
• Proposal submitted to NSF (R. Rotunno, K. Friedrich and V. Grubisic): heavy
precipitation & orography; deployment of Doppler on Wheels radars, the
airborne radar ELDORA onboard NRL/P3, wind profiler system and
radiosondes on a ship
Timetable for Implementation Plan
• 15 March 2010: preliminary draft by TT leaders
• March-April 2010: iteration within and between the TTs
• 15 April 2010: more elaborated draft produced by the TTs
• 7-10 June 2010: presentation and discussion of the
Implementation Plan at the 4th HyMeX workshop
• June 2010: integration of the workshop discussions
• Summer 2010: revision
• September 2010: 1st version of the HyMeX International
Implementation Plan