Community Based Energy Development … Early Observations APPA 2006 Business & Financial Conference September 19, 2006 Background on SMMPA Wholesale Joint Action Agency. Serving 18 Municipal Members. 520 MW Summer Peaking Utility. 3,000,000 MWH Sales. Members have approximately 110,00 retail customers. 38 Full & 2 Part Time Staff. MN Renewable Initiatives 2001 MN Omnibus Energy Bill Green Pricing - Mandated all retail utilities to offer a green priced alternative at least once annually. Renewable Energy Objective (REO). Utility Good Faith Effort. 1% of retail sales supplied by renewables in 2005 growing 1% annually to 10% in 2015 (Energy based objective). 2005 Community Based Energy Development (CBED) Governors call in 2006 for utilities to install 800MW of CBED. SMMPA Renewable Initiatives SMMPA began a green pricing program prior to MN mandate (Dec. 2000) Currently about 1,700 residential and 35 commercial/industrial customers – average 3.8 – 100kWh blocks per customer. SMMPA Wind Generation Currently owns and operates 8.5MW of wind turbines interconnected to SMMPA Member Utilities. SMMPA Purchases of Renewable Energy and Renewable Energy Credits SMMPA Renewable Targets Existing REO And Ellen Anderson 25% by 2025 Proposal 1200000 Approximately 99 - 2.5MW Wind Turbines 1000000 Approximately 39 - 2.5MW Wind Turbines MWH 800000 600000 SMMPA’s intent is to bring CBED projects on line on a time line to ensure full production in 2009. It is unlikely that CBED projects will be in full production in 2008, as is depicted in the graph. 400000 200000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Year Existing REO Wind Power Redwood Falls Hydro Member Biodiesel (Avg. 10%) 2004 Basin TRC Purchase (75,000 MWh) 2005 Basin TRC Purchase (175,000 MWh) 2005 Biomass TRC Purchase (7,600 MWh) St. Peter Biodiesel (B20) Olmsted Waste To Energy PPA Lake City CBED (One 1.65MW Turbine) 2006 CBED RFP (30MW) New REO Wind (2.5MW units) Ellen Anderson 25% by 2025 Original REO MWh SMMPA Renewable Strategy Portfolio of resource types and ownership structures to meet the REO Own P u r c h a s e Approximately 5MW of owned & operated wind turbines – 15,628 MWh annually. Biodiesel – 1,250 MWh annually. Member small hydro – 1,352 MWh annually. Waste to Energy – 25,085 MWh annually. CBED RFP – 100,000 MWh annually. Member Community CBED – 5,500 MWh annually. Wind Renewable Energy Credits (REC’s) – 250,000 MWh. Biomass REC’s – 7,600 MWh. New REO wind resource to meet target 260,000 MWh + annually. SMMPA Renewable Strategy Emphasis on Purchases Avoids problems with current turbine availability. Avoids making investment in the face of limited transmission availability. Allows time for current turbine price bubble to moderate. Allows for turbine efficiency improvements to take place before any decision to purchase. Allows current design flaws/issues to be resolved prior to SMMPA considering asset purchase. Allows SMMPA to avoid/defer capital investment. Recognition of the limited incentives available to public power projects. The CBED Opportunity Will CBED Provide SMMPA with a costeffective opportunity for meeting the REO? Law did not require the purchase, but instead required that all utilities develop a CBED Tariff. Wind power purchases in the region over the last several years have been in the low to mid $40/MWh range. Governor set a 800MW target for MN utilities. SMMPA pro-rata share 30MW. February issued an RFP for 100,000 MWh CBED (roughly 30 MW). The CBED Opportunity How does CBED work? 2005 Law required utilities to develop CBED tariffs to implement the initiative. Qualifying CBED owners. Minnesota residents. Limited liability corporations organized under Minnesota law that are made up of members who are Minnesota residents. Minnesota non-profit organizations. Minnesota cooperative associations other than rural electric cooperative associations or generation and transmission (G&T) cooperatives. Minnesota political subdivisions or local governments other than municipal electric utilities or municipal power agencies. Tribal councils. The CBED Opportunity How does CBED work? (Continued) Qualifying CBED Ownership Structure. Project has no single qualifying owner owning more than 15% of a C-BED project that consists of more than two turbines; or For C-BED projects of one or two turbines, is owned entirely by one or more qualifying owners, with at least 51% of the total financial benefits over the life of the project flowing to qualifying owners. Local Support. Project requires a resolution of support adopted by the county board of each county in which the project is to be located. The CBED Opportunity How does CBED work? (Continued) CBED Tariff Structure. Allows for a rate up to a 2.7 cents/kWh net present value (NPV) over the 20-year life of the power purchase agreement (PPA). Must provide for a rate that is higher in the first ten years of the PPA than in the last ten years. Discount rate for the NPV calculation must be the utility’s normal discount rate. Shall consider C-BED aggregation mechanisms. Qualifying owners provide sufficient security to secure performance under the PPA, and project is non transferable to anon-qualifying owner during the initial PPA. C-BED developer & utility may negotiate a PPA different terms. C-BED projects are not eligible for net energy billing or production incentives. Our C-BED Expectations Thought we would get a hand full of responses. Thought they would be small – i.e. have to assemble a number of different projects to reach our 100,000 MWh (30MW) target. Really no expectation of what prices might be but didn’t see how they could meet the $27/MWh NPV rate in statute. Thought that bidders would have little experience in developing projects. Concerned that bidders may not have cleared interconnection hurdles with the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO). What Are We Learning? 11 responses Project sizes were all over the place. Less than 5MW – 1 respondent. 20MW or less – 4 respondents. 30MW or More - 6 respondents (One offering 50MW). Pricing All over the place ??? What does $27/MWh NPV mean? More in the $40+ range on a traditional utility levelized approach. Experience While bidders may not have extensive experience they have formed alliances with those that have. Interconnection In most cases substantive portions of MISO clearance needs to be completed. Cannot absorb cost the way a FPL energy can. Transmission and congestion issues is a determining factor. CBED Pricing SMMPA CBED RFP NPV and Levelized Pricing (Busbar) $70.00 $60.00 $/MWh $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $3 9 6 5 10 2 8 4 1 11 Bidder NPV - CBED Levelized Utility CBED $27 NPV 7 CBED Pricing SMMPA CBED RFP RESPONSES (First Ten Yrs., Second Ten Yrs. Busbar Pricing) $70.00 $60.00 , $60.00 Second Ten Years $60.00 Bidder 9 Bidder 6 $52.60 , $52.60 $50.00 $49.50 , $49.50 Bidder 5 Bidder 10 $40.00 $35.00 , $35.00 $40.97 , $33.00 $47.40 , $29.90 $30.00 $48.00 , $35.00 Bidder 2 Bidder 8 $49.50 , $30.00 $53.00 , $29.00 $51.00 , $28.00 $20.00 Bidder 3 Bidder 4 Bidder 1 $48.00 , $24.00 Bidder 11 Bidder 7 $10.00 $$- $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 First Ten Years $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 CBED FRP Locations SMMPA CBED RFP Deliverability remains a big concern. MISO’s identified area of concern indicating that there are several times (MW’s) the number of projects in this area than the planed transmission improvements. SMMPA CBED RFP Deliverability Issues Influence Selection After assessing busbar costs, we assessed MISO Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) factors for each location Added over $7 per MWH in some locations. Negative in other locations. Deliverability issues and LMP costs were a major determinants in selecting the successful bidder. Deliverability Influences Selection SMMPA CBED RFP 50 Additional SMMPA Capital Contribution LMP Compendated w/80% Hedge Bid Price 47 $/MWh 44 41 38 35 9 3 6 Bidder 5 SMMPA CBED RFP Where we’re at… Narrowed the field of 11 to a short list of 4. Conducted additional due diligence. Offered the final 4 an opportunity to adjust their bid prior to the final selection. Three bidders raised their price. One bidder did not. In mid August Identified the successful bidder and have begun negotiations to complete a power purchase agreement. SMMPA CBED RFP What we have learned We will get CBED qualified bidders, and in the majority of instances are willing to provide 30MW or more. Bidders are interested, responsive and professional. Pricing on the first ten and second ten years will vary significantly, including bidders with constant pricing. Price seems to be comparable with what we are hearing about “non-CBED” small project PPA’s. Harder for CBED projects to financially have all the MISO approvals in hand. Projects further west in state may have good busbar prices but deliverability issues make the projects more risky and add to project cost. Projects have the potential to positively impact on local economies. While projects may be CBED eligible, their ownership characteristics can vary significantly. SMMPA CBED RFP What We Have Yet to Learn Will CBED qualified bidders/projects be around in the second 10 years when the utility is to begin receiving the benefits from the lower rate in the final 10 years of the contract? Is there a price premium for working with CBED projects? SMMPA will shortly issue a second RFP for 30MW to 50MW of additional wind. RFP will be open to both CBED and non-CBED bidders. SMMPA may choose to select additional CBED proposals but wants to know if there is a difference, what that difference is. Questions? Contact Information: Larry Johnston Southern Minnesota Municipal Power Agency [email protected] 507.292.6440
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