Policy modelling for small areas
Presentation to Department of Planning and Community
Development, Victoria
Presenter: Robert Tanton
Position: Research Director, Social Inclusion and Small Area Modelling team
Date: 31 July 2009
Format
● Introduction to the Social Inclusion and Small Area
Modelling (SISAM) team at NATSEM
● Evidence based policy
● Projections of populations for small areas (service
delivery)
● Cost/Benefit analysis of policy modelling
2
Other presentations today
● Housing
● Social Exclusion
3
Introduction to SISAM
● New team formed this year
● Concentrate on social inclusion and small area
modelling (spatial microsimulation)
●
Robert Tanton – Research Director
●
Justine McNamara – Children and Families team
● WWW.NATSEM.CANBERRA.EDU.AU/SISAM
●
Links to all papers, online maps, etc
4
What does SISAM do?
5
Evidence based policy
● The Government’s agenda for the APS
●
“Today I want to discuss seven elements of the Government’s
vision for the future Australian public service:
– 3) Developing evidence-based policy making processes as part of
a robust culture of policy contestability”

(Kevin Rudd, Address to Heads of Agencies and
Members of Senior Executive Service,
30 April 2008)
6
Limits to evidence based policy
● Part of a complex process
●
Also consider politics, public mood and opinions
● … but policy modelling will give some idea as to cost of
policies, who benefits, and can affect public mood and
opinion
● Evidence based policy? Or evidence informing policy?
●
Is policy based purely on evidence? Or should evidence inform
policy?
7
Research informing policy
● Sandra Nutley (Professor of Public Management,
University of St Andrews):
●
“if research is used to inform policy, what works best is
interactive and ongoing processes and relationships between
policymakers and researchers”
● At a practical level, round-tables or workshops are seen
as a cost effective, safe haven way of sharing ideas,
analyses or perspectives.
●
Meredith Edwards, “Research shouldn’t stop at a report”, The
Public Sector Informant, p. 28
8
Models NATSEM has to study service
provision and the effects of policy change
● SpatialMSM project
●
6 year grant with 4 States
●
Developing a model to estimate and project populations
requiring certain services
●
Links microsimulation model of tax/transfers with spatial
microsimulation
● Policy modelling
●
Impacts of policies in 2 ways
– Model policy change before happens
– Given current policies, projections of groups requiring service
provision
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Modelling policies not yet implemented
● Small area impacts of
●
Commonwealth Government’s change to the single age
pension – was implemented after this paper written
●
Changes to FTB taper rates
●
Who affected by stimulus package (ie, which groups and what
areas got most) – impact of policy post-implementation
10
Where old singles benefited from pension
increase
11
Where and who got most from stimulus
package
● 99% of sole parent families gained the most an average
of $46.81 per week
● 95% of married couples with dependants gained an
average of $46.30 per week
● 56% of married couples with no dependants gained an
average of $26.74 per week
● 55% of single persons gained an average of $17.31 per
week
12
Effect of stimulus package by area
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Forecasts of groups requiring service
provision
● Identify where services needed in future
●
Small area forecasts of families with children and both parents
working
●
Small area forecasts of aged single people
14
Estimated percentage growth in number of 3 – 4 year old children with all
parents working, 2006 – 2027, Melbourne
15
Estimated percentage growth in number of people aged 70+ living alone,
2006 – 2027, Melbourne
16
Later this year
● Projections of wealth
●
Mainly home ownership and superannuation
17
Funding
● Model developed with Australian Research Council and
State partners (Vic, NSW, Qld, ACT)
● Now a mature and tested model
● Can be used for commissioned research
18
Future
● Collaborations with States
●
Work with States to model different policies or client groups
●
Provide results in focus groups to talk through results
●
Which client groups cost most in future?
● Costs
●
When modelling conducted, doesn’t cost much more to do for
one State compared to all States
●
Collaborative costing model with all States?
●
Cost about $60,000 for research, written report and focus
groups - split between a number of States
19
Cost/Benefit analysis
● How much does a policy with unintended
consequences cost?
●
Making things much worse for low income families compared to
high income families – was this intended?
●
Making thing worse for different areas – will rural areas be
affected worse? Or inner city? Was this intended?
20
Questions/Comments/Discussion
www.natsem.canberra.edu.au