Weekly Economic Review
Alberta’s wholesale trade advances
Wholesale Trade
Broad‑based gains lift wholesale trade
The value of wholesale trade in Alberta grew 4.5% month‑over‑month (m/m) to
$6.8 billion in May, the highest level since April 2015. The monthly gain in sales
chrt_01_jun28.pdf
was led by wholesalers of agricultural supplies, machinery and equipment, building
materials, and food and beverage products. Compared to a year ago, sales jumped
Broad‐based gains from a year ago
Chart 1: Alberta wholesalers enjoy broad-based sales growth
Contributions to year‐over‐year growth in Alberta's wholesale trade
Contributions to year-over-year growth in Alberta’s wholesale trade
(Percentage
Points)
25
20
Machinery & equipment
Motor vehicle and parts
Other wholesalers
Building material and supplies
Food, beverage, and tobacco
Wholesale trade (%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
chrt_02_jun28.pdf
Source:Statistics Canada
Bitumen drilling surges from 2016 lows
Chart 2: Alberta bitumen drilling returns to normal range
Alberta's metres drilled for bitumen
Range (2010-14)
2017
2016
2015
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Source:Alberta Energy Regulator
Source: Alberta Energy Regulator
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nationally, wholesale trade increased
0.9% m/m to hit a record high of $61.6
billion in May, led by gains in Alberta
(+$289 million) and Newfoundland and
Labrador (+$110 million).
Metres Drilled
Bitumen drives drilling growth
The number of metres drilled for oil
and gas in May was almost triple
year ago levels. The year‑over‑year
(y/y) increase was due to a pick up
in drilling for bitumen and continued
strength in natural gas. There were
more than 10 times as many metres
drilled for bitumen than in May 2016
when drilling reached a low point during
the Wood Buffalo wildfires (Chart 2).
Natural gas recorded the highest
drilling for the month of May in over
10 years. Meanwhile, well completions
have jumped due to a flood of newly
completed bitumen wells. Through five
months of 2017, the number of metres
drilled for oil and gas in the province
was up 143% from last year’s levels.
Average Weekly Earnings
Total bitumen metres drilled
Source: Statistic Canada
(Metres)
up 16% driven by broad‑based gains
(Chart 1).
Oct
Nov
Dec
Earnings stagnant
Earnings in the province continue
to lag, dragged down by weakness
i n t h e g o o d s s e c t o r. Av e r a g e
weekly earnings (AWE) edged down
0.4% to $1,120, as earnings in the
goods‑producing sector declined
1.5% m/m. Weakness was due to lower
earnings in manufacturing (‑2.6% m/m)
and construction (‑1.0% m/m), which
offset a gain in mining, oil and gas
(+1.0% m/m). Earnings in the service
sector held steady after three months
of consecutive gains. Overall earnings
were up 1.7% y/y from the low set
last May. The year‑over‑year gains
July 28, 2017
Treasury Board and Finance
Economics and Revenue Forecasting
Weekly Economic Review were supported by 2.5% increase in
the service sector (Chart 3). Alberta’s
AWE remains the highest in the country,
exceeding the national average by
about $150.
Job Vacancies
Vacancies on the rise
The number of jobs available for job
seekers in the province continues to
grow. Total job vacancies in Alberta
rose by 1,000 in the three‑month
period ending in April to reach 27,900
(Chart 4). With job vacancies moving
higher, the vacancy rate increased while
the unemployment‑to‑job vacancies
ratio continued to ease. The ratio was
7.7 in April, much higher than the
pre‑recession level, but down from the
recession high of 8.4.
Canadian GDP by Industry
Solid expansion in GDP
The Canadian economy posted strong
growth in May. Real GDP grew by
0.6% m/m as activity increased in
14 of 20 industries. The increase was
due to gains in the goods‑producing
sector (+1.6% m/m) led by oil and gas
extraction (+7.6% m/m). The monthly
jump was mainly due to the return
of non‑conventional oil production
(+13% m/m) at Syncrude’s Mildred
Lake oil sands facility. Meanwhile, the
expansion in service sector slowed
(+0.2% m/m), as new housing rules
in Ontario weighed on real estate
and rentals (‑0.2% m/m). Arts,
entertainment and recreation services
also fell (‑3.5% m/m) as Canadian
teams exited from the NHL playoffs.
Canadian real GDP in May was
4.6% higher than May 2016 when the
Fort McMurray wildfires disrupted oil
production.
Page 2/2
Railway Carloadings
Carloadings slowed
Railway shipments originating from Western Canada fell for a second month in a
row in May partly due to seasonal weakness. Carloadings decreased 5.2% m/m
to 158,458 railcars, as decreases in agriculture and food, and energy outweighed
gains in nearly all other categories. On a year‑over‑year basis, carloadings were
up 17%. The largest gain was in fuel oils and crude which rebounded from the
chrt_03_jun28.pdf
low reached last May during the Fort McMurray wildfires.
Year‐over‐year gains led by the service sector
Chart 3: Earnings in the goods sector continue to fall
Year‐over‐year percentage change on AWE by industry
Alberta’s average weekly earnings by industry
($)
1,100
($)
Service Producing (Left)
Goods Producing (Right)
1,680
1,080
1,660
1,060
1,640
1,040
1,620
1,020
1,600
1,000
1,580
980
1,560
960
1,540
940
1,520
920
1,500
chrt_04_jun28.pdf
Source:Statistics Canada
Mild recovery in job vacancies
Chart
4: Job vacancies continue to gain traction
Number of job vacancies and number
Total job vacancies and unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio in Alberta
Source: Statistics Canada
(000's)
Job Vacancy (Left)
36
Unemployment-to-Job Vacancies Ratio (Right)
(%)
10
8
32
6
28
4
24
2
20
0
Source: Statistics Canada
Contact
Robert Van Blyderveen780.638.5628
Source: Statistics Canada
Please see the Alberta Economy - Indicators at a Glance for a snapshot of Alberta indicators.
July 28, 2017
Treasury Board and Finance
Economics and Revenue Forecasting