Development of Common Assumptions
Common Model Package for the CALFED
Surface Storage Investigations
Presentation To:
California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum
by
Brian Van Lienden and Robert Leaf, CH2M HILL
February 26, 2007
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Presentation Outline
Common Assumptions Background and
Accomplishments
Overview of Common Model Package
Development
Common Model Package Review
Process
The Future of Common Assumptions
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Common Assumptions Background
CALFED
• To “develop a long-term comprehensive plan that will restore
ecological health and improve water management for
beneficial uses of the Bay-Delta system”
• 2000 CALFED ROD
Surface Storage Investigations (component of CALFED)
• Shasta Lake Water Resources Investigation (SLWRI)
• North-of-the-Delta Off-stream Storage Investigation (NODOS)
• In-Delta Storage Investigation (IDS)
• Los Vaqueros Enlargement Investigation (LVE)
• Upper San Joaquin River Basin Storage Investigation
(USJRBSI)
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Common Assumptions Background
Common assumptions was originally developed to help the surface
storage projects perform feasibility studies with these purposes in mind:
• Comply with CEQA, NEPA, P&Gs, CWA/404,
ESA, etc.
• Complete necessary studies and reports
Common Assumptions Objectives:
• Provide a framework for a defensible basis for collaborative decision making
regarding surface storage investigations
• Improve consistency in application of overarching policy decisions
• Identify common water facilities, operations, management, and regulations
• Develop and refine a common analytical framework including tools and
methods for integrated hydrologic and economic analyses
• Support application of common policy and analytical framework and ensure
quality control
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Common Assumptions Accomplishments
Facilitated Policy Decisions
Established important dates and timelines
Identified likely future projects/programs in 2030
Developed Analytical Framework
Common Model Package
Application protocols
Economic analysis methods and protocols
Characterized and Quantified Water Management Actions
Urban water use conservation
Agricultural water use efficiency
Recycling and desalination
Groundwater storage for conjunctive management
Water transfers
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Common Model Package (CMP) Description
Consists of a set of analytical tools that can be
operated in an integrated manner to perform
hydrologic and economic analyses
Provides for consistency in application of policy
decisions and assumptions about facilities, operations,
management, and regulations
Supports application and accessibility of analytical
tools and enhances quality control
Provides a basis for the common reporting of results
between different projects
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CMP Goals
All Surface Storage Investigations to use
both existing (CEQA) and future (NEPA)
conditions for Feasibility Studies
Provide cumulative, incremental, and
sensitivity analysis capabilities for all
surface storage projects
Incorporate other characterization and
quantification of other CALFED Water
Management actions in analyses
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CMP Development History
CMP development began in June 2004 using
the OCAP model suite
CMP Version 6 core CALSIM II component
released June 6, 2006; has been in limited
use (research and investigatory analyses)
Latest CMP Version 8 in use by more than six
investigations (surface storage, OCAP, and
others), and use is expanding
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Conceptual Structure of the CMP
Assumptions
Inputs
Inputs
Inputs
Protocol
Model
Metric
Metric
Metric
Model
Model
Data
Data
Data
Data
Data
Data
Model
Model
Model
Model
Metric
Metric
Metric
Model
Model
Metric
Metric
Metric
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Component models included in current CMP
Water resource system (CALSIM II)
Economics (LCPSIM, CVPM)
Delta flow and salinity (DSM2)
Temperature and salmon
Sacramento River (Keswick to Red Bluff)
(SRWQM_RBDD, SalMod)
Trinity, Feather and American Rivers
(Reclamation mortality model)
Power generation and use
CVP (LTGen)
SWP (SWP_Power)
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CMP Integrated Solution Process
CALSIM II
DSM2
LCPSIM
M&I WQ
econ
SRWQM_RBDD
Reclamation Mortality
SalMod
CVPM
LTGEN/SWP Power
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CMP Accomplishments
Period of Record and Level of Development
82-year simulation period of record (1922–2003)
2030 level of development (Sacramento Valley at 2020 level of
development)
2004 level of development nearly complete (LCPSIM
inputs pending)
Delta
Delta flow-salinity relationships; updated artificial neural
networks (ANNs)
DSM2 82-year simulation capability (was 16-year)
Martinez boundary condition redeveloped; adjusted
astronomical tide normalized for historic sea level rise
(normalized to November 1993)
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CMP Accomplishments
New Subsystems
Incorporated new San Joaquin River module (with 2004 and
2030 levels of development)
Colusa Basin network and hydrology redeveloped (using
2004 and 2020 levels of development)
Delta Export Operations
Refined south-of-Delta SWP operations (variable delivery
patterns)
Development and implementation of water transfers
operations (integrated CALSIM II–LCPSIM analysis)
Incorporation of logic consistent with latest EWA model
development (QC review pending)
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CMP Accomplishments
Economics
Implementation of LCPSIM Review Team (Common
Assumptions Economics Workgroup) recommendations
Implementation of Economics Workgroup CVPM
recommendations
Integration
CALSIM II/LCPSIM integrated solution capability (interface
and protocol)
Enhanced one-directional linkage CALSIM II to CVPM
Established protocols and clarified/corrected linkages for all
models
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CMP Accomplishments
Surface Storage
Incorporated storage project components: NODOS, SLWRI,
LVE Future No Project – LVE w/project pending
Other
Comprehensive documentation and review of all surface
water rights, contracts, and other water delivery
specifications
Restructuring of CALSIM II to allow for more flexible and
efficient analysis
Extensive quality control effort resulting in hundreds of
corrections and clarifications
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CMP Review Process
December 6 internal memo requested joint
Reclamation and DWR review of CMP Version 8
Common Assumptions team is supporting
agencies in the review process
Review is an essential part of the quality control
process
Agencies’ acceptance at end of review process
will result in CMP Version 9
Use of CMP does not need to wait for conclusion
of the review process – Version 8 is already
being used
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Schedule for CMP Review Workshops
Jan. 8: Introduce CMP and kick off Review Workshops
(for study managers and teams)
Jan. 18: Analytical framework, Delta requirements and
operations, new subsystems (for technical teams)
Feb. 15: Economics Workgroup activities (for study
managers and teams)
Feb. 22: Model integration, water transfers and related
model improvements (for technical teams)
Mar. 8: Surface storage projects, EWA logic,
temperature, salmon, power (for technical teams)
Mar 22: TBD
Note: Additional workshops will be scheduled as needed.
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CMP Next Steps
The latest CMP Version 8 is in use
Review and acceptance process is underway
A large amount of information is available, but
documentation still under development
The next CMP update, Version 9, should be
available in spring 2007
Upon completion, the desire is for Version 9
of the CMP to become the new benchmark
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The Future of Common Assumptions
The goal is to wrap up CMP Version 9 and all
supporting documentation by the end of the
Spring
At that point, the emphasis will shift to the
surface storage project teams as they use the
CMP for their feasibility analyses
The Common Assumptions Team will
continue to help by:
Supporting the project teams as they apply
the CMP
Performing cumulative and incremental
analyses
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