Developing 2018 Base Case Emission
Inventories for Regional Haze Planning
Tom Moore
WRAP Technical Coordinator
970.491.8837 – [email protected]
Emissions Inventories and Projections:
Columbia Gorge Project and WRAP
CG Project
2004 EI
(assembled
for study)
WRAP 2002
Base Case EI
(actual
emissions as
reported by
states/locals
for triennial
NEI
requirement –
QAed with
state review
before use)
WRAP 200004 Planning EI
(2002 Base
Case emissions
except 5-year
average fire
and 4-year
average EGU
emissions rates
– developed
with state
input
WRAP 2018
Base Case
Projections
(rules on the
books as of late
2005, growth
using EPA
EGAS, some
sources held
constant
WRAP 2018
Preliminary
Reasonable
Progress (rules
on the books as
of Spring 2007,
known BART
controls,
corrected errors
from 2018 Base
case, some
sources again
held constant
Union of 5 ovals is regional
analysis basis of haze plans
Final 2000-04
Planning EI &
Modeling case –
Fall 2007
2018 Final
Reasonable Progress
Planning EI &
Modeling case –
Spring 2008
WRAP Emission Inventory Scenarios for Regional Haze Planning
•
“Base02b” - Actual emissions from 2002
– Used for Model Performance Evaluation (MPE) statistics – EPA requirement
– Compared to monitored values
– Completed Fall 2005
•
Results:
–
–
–
–
•
36 km grid resolution
Air quality impacts at each Class I area
Light extinction - species and total visibility
Natural vs. Anthropogenic
“Plan02c” – representative of 2000-04 Baseline Planning Period
– Used for analyzing change from 2000-04 to 2018 for regional haze
– 2000-04 fire EI data averages fire activity levels by state over 5-year period, leaves
fires at same time and place
– EGU monthly/daily temporal profile averages by state
– Completed May 2006
•
Results:
–
–
–
–
36 km grid resolution
Air quality impacts at each Class I area
Light extinction - species and total visibility
Natural vs. Anthropogenic
WRAP Emission Inventory Scenarios for Regional Haze Planning, cont.
• “Base18b” – 2018 Base Case Emissions = “rules on the books as of 12/05”
& activity changes from population growth
•
•
– Other piece of change from 2000-04 to 2018 for regional haze
– Starting point for control strategy analyses
– Completed June 2006
Factors in modeling 2000-04 to 2018 base case:
– Held constant: Wildfire, Windblown Dust, Offshore Shipping, 1999 Mexico, & 2000
Canada EI data
– No BART/BtB control programs included
– EGU temporal profile averages by state
Results:
– 36 km grid resolution
– Air quality impacts at each Class I area
– Light extinction - species and total visibility
– Natural vs. Anthropogenic
• “PRP18” – Preliminary Reasonable Progress for Haze Planning = “rules
on books” as of 3/07, error correction from 2018 base case, &
known/presumptive BART controls
– Next piece of change from 2000-04 to 2018 for regional haze
– Changed to Canadian 2020 projections
– Completed June 2007
2018 Base Case – Point & Area Source EI Development
•
Point and Area projected from 2002 data reported by states/locals - report at:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/documents/eictts/docs/WRAP_2018_EIVersion_1-Report_Jan2006.pdf - see Chapter 4 for growth factor methods
– EGUs grown using EIA factors, state permit info, source data, see page 4-1
– Other Point Sources grown using EPA Economic Growth and Analysis System growth
factor model (EGAS) Version 5.0, see page 4-10
• Generates SCC-specific growth factors for a specified geographic area, base year (i.e.,
2002), and future year (i.e., 2018) using various socio-economic data (U.S. EPA, 2004;
Abt, 2004). At the present time, the EGAS model runs with default data that can only
generate growth factors at the state-level.
• Default model runs were made for every state within the inventory with the exception
of California. Growth factors from the default model runs were matched using SCCs
to each inventory record. In the event that an inventory record SCC did not match
any of the SCCs in the EGAS output, a growth factor of 1.0000 was assigned. In most
cases, unmatched SCCs were caused by the input of incorrect SCCs in the inventory
record.
– Area Sources grown using factors were obtained from one of three sources, see page 4-11:
• the EGAS growth factor model,
• energy projections from EIA, or
• agricultural crop projections from the USDA)
2018 Base Case – Point & Area Source EI issues
• Documented in January 2006 report, see:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/documents/eictts/docs/WRAP_2018
_EI-Version_1-Report_Jan2006.pdf - Appendix B – Errata
• Begin review and comment at February 2006 Stationary Sources Joint
Forum meeting, see:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/meetings/060201den/NonEGU_Area
_Emissions_Review_SSJF_2_1_06.pdf
• EI changes (2018 base case version “b”) reported at August 2006 SSJF
meeting, see:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/meetings/060816m/2018EmissionsC
hangesUpdate8_16_06.pdf
• Outstanding issues with 2018 Base Case addressed with state-by-state
interviews in 2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress (PRP18) EI
analysis and modeling during Spring 2007, see:
http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/documents/eictts/Projections/PRP18
_EI_tech%20memo_061607.pdf
Technical Support System (http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/)
Applications for Columbia Gorge Project
Monitoring Data Results
Technical Support System (http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/)
Applications for Columbia Gorge Project, continued
Source Apportionment & Modeling Projections
COGO
CORI
COGO
How do BART CalPuff modeling results fit into Regional Haze modeling?
Each State
deciding “subjectto-BART” using
CalPuff modeling
2018 base case EI &
modeling results (includes
all BART sources “as is”)
Engineering analyses
determine specific
emissions reductions
Each State decides
visibility improvement
“subject-to-BART” using
CalPuff modeling + factors
Each State permits
BART/BtB emissions limits
Present
Control Strategy Emissions Data
[known/possibilities/updates]
 BART/BtB backstop
 Oil & Gas
 Population factors
 Area sources
 CA emissions controls
 “Outside-of-WRAP” changes
Results of regional haze control strategy
modeling for reasonable progress analysis
– Air quality impacts at each Class I area
– Light extinction - species & total visibility
– Natural vs. Anthropogenic
– Scaled source apportionment as before
– (state/source category
Future
Status of the regional haze modeling analysis process
Summer
2006
2018 base
case EI &
modeling
results
Present
May 2007
PRP18 EI & modeling results
 BART/BtB backstop
 Oil & Gas
 Population factors
 Area sources
 CA emissions controls
“Outside-of-WRAP” changes
Final 2000-04 EI
& modeling
analysis to be
completed Fall
2007
Emissions Changes
 2002 to new 2018
 2005 to new 2018
 2000-04 to new 2018
Modeling Results
 2002 to new 2018
 2000-04 to new 2018
Future