Introduction to the New Features in the
Upcoming Glacier Release
Glacier Peak, Washington
3,213 Meters (10,541 Feet)
Latest Eruptions: 200-300 years ago; 1,000-1,800 years ago; 1,800-2,800 years ago
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 1
Glacier (Version 9.5)
 Currently available as a beta version
– On our website and here at the conference
 Depending on the outcome of the beta and
our own ongoing testing and verification,
final release will be sometime this summer
(early July to mid-August).
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 2
Overview of Major New Features
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Glacier has 10 new elements!
Three new function elements in basic GoldSim:
– Splitter
– Allocator
– History Generator
Financial Module: a new module with 5 new elements
A new concept (and element): the SubModel
New functions to dynamically extract vectors from
matrices and items from vectors
In addition, the following element will be added (but is
not in the current beta):
– Interrupt element
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 3
Splitter Element
 A simple element that splits an incoming
signal based on specified set of fractions
– Typically will be used for flows (e.g., material,
water).
– Can also split discrete change signals
– Can have a user-specified number of outputs
– Fractions do not need to add to 1
– Input signal and Fractions can change with
time
– Will discuss further in advanced training
session tomorrow (Water Balance Modelling
Techniques)
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 4
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 5
Allocator Element
 An element that allocates an incoming signal
based on specified set of demands and
priorities
– Typically will be used for flows (e.g., material,
water).
– Can also allocate discrete change signals
– Can have a user-specified number of outputs
– Input Signal, Demands and Priorities can
change with time
– Will discuss further in advanced training
session tomorrow (Water Balance Modelling
Techniques)
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 6
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 7
History Generator Element
 A complex and powerful new element that
generates stochastic time series given some
statistical inputs (e.g., growth rate, volatility)
– Can simulate a variety of history types
– Can simulate geometric growth, random
walks, and random movement around a
target
– Can simulate correlated arrays of stochastic
variables (by specifying a correlation
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 8
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 9
Random Walks: High and Low Volatility
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 10
Random Walks: With and Without Reversion to a
Constant Target
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 11
Geometric Growth: High and Low Volatility
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 12
Volatile Geometric Growth: Multiple Realizations
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 13
Random Walk That Tracks a Dynamic
Target: With and Without Time Lag
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 14
Financial Module
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A new module for simulating financial systems. Provides 5
new elements:
– Fund: Simulates accounts with interest, deposits and
withdrawals.
– Cash Flow: Computes the NPV and IRR of a series of cash
flows. Used to model the future return of projects and
business ventures
– Investment: Simulates investments with purchases and sales
– Option: Simulates different types of financial options
– Insurance: Simulates claims against an insurance policy
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 15
Accessing and Modifying Currencies
 New menu option to make this easier
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 16
Interrupt element
Interrupt
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This element will probably be in Glacier (but it is not
in the beta)
Used for debugging and user warnings
The element is triggered by a condition or event
– When triggered, the model pauses and displays
• A user-defined message
• User-defined options (buttons) for proceeding
– Continue
– End realization
– End simulation
– Investigate
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Outputs
– Cumulative number of time triggered
– A discrete event whenever triggered
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 17
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 18
New Array Functions
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GetItem(vector, row)
GetItem(matrix, row, col)
GetRow(matrix, row)
GetCol(matrix, col)
 where
– vector and matrix are output names (links)
– row and column are integer values (constants
or links)
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 19
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 20
The Concept of a Submodel Element
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What does a GoldSim element actually do?
– Takes inputs
– Produces outputs
– It may have a random component to its behavior (e.g.
Stochastic elements).
What could you do if you were able to take an entire
GoldSim model and embed it as one element within a parent
model?
– The inner model could either:
• Do a deterministic simulation,
• Do a Monte Carlo simulation, or
• Do an optimization
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– The inner model could be either dynamic or static
The Glacier release of GoldSim will provide this capability.
The next few slides illustrate some potential applications…
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 21
Uncertainty Analysis
 Imagine a model of a reliability system…
– The system undergoes random failures and
variable repair times, etc.
– You can use GoldSim to estimate its
reliability, availability, throughput, etc.
 But what if you are uncertain about some of
its key input parameters?
– Can you estimate its performance?
– Can you develop confidence bounds on your
estimate?
– Can you decide whether to go into production
vs doing more testing?
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 22
Uncertainty Analysis (cont)
 You can address these issues by using a
‘double Monte Carlo’ analysis:
– An outer Monte Carlo loop samples the
uncertain system parameters.
– An inner Monte Carlo loop simulates the
system’s random performance given specific
values for the uncertain variables.
– The result: an understanding of the
uncertainty in the system’s performance, e.g.
“The probability that the mean warranty
return rate will exceed 5%”.
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 23
Optimizing a Random
(or Uncertain) System
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What is the optimum design for a system that is
subject to random effects?
– The optimum for one possible set of random effects
may be quite different from the optimum for another
set.
– So you need to evaluate your objective function over
the full range of possible performance (i.e., to get a
PDF for the objective function).
– The true optimum design has to be based on
STATISTICS for the objective function, eg:
• “Minimize the expected total lifecycle cost while
allowing no more than a 2% likelihood of a
catastrophic failure”
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An optimizing parent can use a Submodel element to
calculate the desired statistic(s) to optimize.
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 24
Dynamic Optimization
 What if your model needs to make an optimal
decision at one or more points in time during
a simulation?
– Set up a static submodel that will find the
optimal solution and return it to the main
model.
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 25
Example: Optimize the Life-Cycle Performance of
a Manufactured Component (SubModel1.gsm)
This example minimizes the life-cycle costs for a manufactured
product, subject to a constraint that the likelihood of a
catastrophic failure is less than 2%.
The Submodel element does a stochastic simulation of the
products operational performance and costs.
3.14
16
MeanLife
GSM
TheSystem
X
X
AllCosts
3.14
16
SlopeFactor
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 26
X
X
Prod_Cost
We need your help!
 Although it is not visible, much of the
underlying GoldSim framework was modified
for Glacier to set the stage for further
development
 We need you to run your real-world models
in the Glacier beta
– Install the beta parallel to your current
GoldSim version and save your models using
a different name (so you don’t lose them)
– Let us know if your models loaded and ran
successfully (generating the same results)
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 27
Looking Ahead: Hood
Tentative Release Date: 1st Quarter 2007
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Mt Hood, Oregon
3,429 Meters (11,249 Feet)
GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006
Slide 28
Probable Features:
– Re-designed
Dashboards with more
features and options
– “Components”. These
are Containers that
can be locked and
have a user-defined
custom interface. This
would effectively allow
users to build (and
easily distribute)
custom elements.
– Correlation matrices