economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics March quarter 2014
Economic Growth Forecasts
NT
Aust
2013-14 (estimate)
5.5%
2.7%
2014-15 (forecast)
5.0%
2.7%
5 year average annual growth rate
(2013-14 to 2017-18)
Chart 1: Economic Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
8
Northern Territory
7
4.9%
2.9%
Northern Territory Economic Growth
In its March 2014 Business Outlook publication,
Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) has forecast the
Territory economy to outperform the national economy
over the next five years (Chart 1).
DAE is forecasting that the Territory economy will
grow at an average annual rate of 4.9 per cent
between 2013-14 and 2017-18. This is the highest
growth rate of the jurisdictions and well above the
2.9 per cent annual average growth forecast for
Australia over the same period.
In other jurisdictions, the five year annual average
growth rates ranged from 1.2 per cent in
South Australia to 4.1 per cent in Queensland.
Territory Economic Growth in 2013-14
DAE are forecasting the Territory economy to grow by
5.5 per cent in 2013-14, underpinned by continued
record levels of private construction investment
(Chart 2). Growth in private equipment investment,
private housing investment and private consumption
expenditure are also expected to support Territory
economic growth in 2013-14.
DAE notes that that the recent surge in Territory
economic growth has been driven by investment
spending associated with the Ichthys project as well
as the Montara oilfield development, expansion at the
McArthur River zinc/lead mine and the new Darwin
Correctional Precinct.
6
5
4
3
Australia
2
1
0
04
06
08
10
12
With private construction investment expected to
begin to decline from record levels in 2014-15, DAE is
forecasting the drivers of economic growth in the
Territory to shift towards international exports,
household consumption and private housing
investment.
Territory international exports are expected to grow by
an annual average of 9.5 per cent between 2013-14
and 2017-18, while international imports are expected
to average 0.8 per cent per annum over this period,
resulting in a substantial increase in the Territory's net
exports (Chart 3).
Private consumption and retail trade are predicted to
grow strongly, with DAE forecasting average annual
growth of 5.0 per cent for private consumption and
4.6 per cent for retail trade between 2013-14 and
2017-18.
Strong growth in private housing investment is also
expected to support Territory economic growth, with
DAE noting that the fundamentals remain solid for the
Territory's housing construction sector, albeit with the
potential for some volatility over the coming years.
16f
18f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 2: Territory Private Investment Components
(moving annual total, inflation adjusted)
$B
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Construction Investment
3
2
1
Equipment
Investment
0
Territory Economic Growth to 2017-18
14e
04
06
08
10
12
14 e
16 f
18 f
Year ended June
Source: Australlian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 3: Territory International Exports and
Components
(moving annual total, inflation adjusted)
$B
12
Exports
10
8
6
Imports
4
Net Exports
2
0
-2
04
06
08
10
12
14 e
16 f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Economic Group │ Department of Treasury and Finance │ (08) 8999 6801 │ www.treasury.nt.gov.au │ [email protected]
18 f
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics March quarter 2014
Employment Forecasts
NT
Aust
2013-14 (estimate)
4.7%
0.8%
2014-15 (forecast)
3.3%
1.2%
5 year average growth rate
2.8%
1.5%
DAE have revised up their Territory employment
growth forecasts, stating that "unemployment has
dropped notably, job gains are spectacular and job
vacancies are still rising".
Chart 4: Employment Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
7
Northern Territory
6
5
4
3
Territory employment growth is forecast to strengthen
to 4.7 per cent in 2013-14, the highest growth rate of
the jurisdictions and well above the forecast national
employment growth rate of 0.8 per cent (Chart 4).
2
Employment growth is forecast to moderate from
2014-15, however the Territory is still expected to
outperform other jurisdictions. In the five years to
2017-18, DAE forecasts average annual employment
growth of 2.8 per cent in the Territory. This is the
highest average annual growth rate of the
jurisdictions, which range from 0.1 per cent in
Tasmania to 2.4 per cent in Western Australia.
-1
Nationally, the five year average employment growth
rate is forecast to be 1.5 per cent per annum.
Over the five years to 2017-18, DAE forecasts the
Territory’s unemployment rate to average
4.6 per cent, the second lowest unemployment rate of
the jurisdictions behind the Australian Capital Territory
(4.4 per cent).
Population Forecasts
NT
Aust
2013-14 (estimate)
2.0%
1.8%
2014-15 (forecast)
2.5%
1.8%
5 year average growth rate
2.5%
1.8%
DAE expects annual population growth in the Territory
to strengthen to 2.0 per cent in 2013-14 and
2.5 per cent in 2014-15.
DAE are forecasting Territory population growth to be
significantly higher than national population growth
(Chart 5).
The five year average annual population growth
forecast for the Territory is 2.5 per cent, the second
highest of the jurisdictions, behind Western Australia
(2.8 per cent) and well above the national rate of
1.8 per cent.
Consumer Price Index Forecasts
NT
Aust
2013-14 (estimate)
3.6%
2.8%
2014-15 (forecast)
2.2%
2.2%
5 year average growth rate
2.8%
2.6%
DAE forecasts growth in the Darwin consumer price
index (CPI) to moderate from an estimated
3.6 per cent in 2013-14 to 2.2 per cent in 2014-15
(Chart 6).
The five year average annual growth rate forecast for
Darwin CPI to 2017-18 is 2.8 per cent. This is the
second highest of all jurisdictions behind Queensland
at 2.9 per cent, but only marginally above the national
average of 2.6 per cent.
Australia
1
0
-2
-3
04
06
08
10
12
14e
16f
18f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 5: Population Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
3.0
Northern Territory
2.5
2.0
Australia
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
04
06
08
10
12
14e
16f
18f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
Chart 6: CPI Growth
(year on year percentage change)
%
5
Northern Territory
4
3
Australia
2
1
0
04
06
08
10
12
14e
16f
18f
Year ended June
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Deloitte Access Economics
Business Outlook
2
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics March quarter 2014
Table 1: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook forecasts by jurisdiction, %
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
Australia
2.7
2.5
1.8
0.8
6.0
2.8
NT
5.5
3.5
2.0
4.7
4.4
3.6
Year on year percentage change, 2013-14
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
2.2
1.2
3.4
1.9
3.1
2.6
2.2
1.5
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.0
0.7
0.8
1.4
-1.3
5.9
6.2
6.0
6.8
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.7
WA
4.7
2.2
3.0
1.5
5.3
2.9
Tas
1.5
2.0
0.3
-1.2
7.7
2.9
ACT
1.8
2.4
1.8
0.8
3.8
2.6
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2.7
2.7
1.8
1.2
6.2
2.2
5.0
6.1
2.5
3.3
4.1
2.2
Year on year percentage change 2014-15
3.1
2.8
3.4
1.5
2.2
2.3
3.9
2.4
1.4
1.8
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.6
1.7
0.9
6.3
6.4
6.1
6.9
2.0
2.1
2.6
2.4
1.6
3.7
3.0
2.3
6.1
2.0
2.5
1.1
0.5
0.2
7.5
2.7
1.1
1.4
1.8
0.4
4.0
2.7
GDP/GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
2.9
2.8
1.8
1.5
6.0
2.6
4.9
5.0
2.5
2.8
4.6
2.8
Five year average annual growth to 2017-18
2.4
2.5
4.1
1.2
2.5
2.5
3.7
2.4
1.4
1.8
2.1
1.0
1.0
1.4
2.3
0.6
6.2
6.3
5.6
6.8
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.6
3.5
3.6
2.8
2.4
5.6
2.7
2.0
1.2
0.5
0.1
7.4
2.7
1.9
1.6
1.6
1.0
4.4
2.7
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
Table 2: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook forecasts by jurisdiction, rank
Rank
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
NT
1
1
2
1
2
8
NSW
4
2
6
6
4
2
2013-14
Vic
8
3
3
4
6
4
Qld
3
6
4
3
5
7
SA
5
8
7
8
7
3
WA
2
5
1
2
3
5
Tas
7
7
8
7
8
6
ACT
6
4
5
5
1
1
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
1
1
2
1
2
4
3
6
6
4
5
1
2014-15
4
5
4
6
6
3
2
2
3
3
3
6
7
4
7
5
7
5
6
3
1
2
4
2
5
8
8
8
8
7
8
7
5
7
1
8
GSP growth
Private consumption
Population growth
Employment growth
Unemployment rate
CPI
1
1
2
1
2
7
Five year average annual growth to 2017-18
5
4
2
8
5
4
2
6
6
4
3
7
5
4
3
7
5
6
4
7
1
2
8
3
3
3
1
2
3
4
6
8
8
8
8
5
7
7
5
6
1
6
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
1 = Best, 8 = Worst
3
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics March quarter 2014
Table 3: Deloitte Access Economics - Business Outlook – Forecasts
Northern Territory
Gross State product
Constant price ($m)
% change
Northern Territory as a share of Australian output %
Real final demand
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private consumption
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private housing investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private construction investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
Private equipment investment
Constant price ($m)
% change
International exports
Constant price ($m)
% change
International imports
Constant price ($m)
% change
Retail turnover
Constant price ($m)
% change
Total population
Persons (’000s)
% change
Population aged 15 and over
Persons (’000s)
% change
Employment (’000s)
Persons (’000s)
% change
Unemployment
Persons (’000s)
Unemployment rate
%
Consumer Price Index
1989-90 = 100
% change
Average Weekly Earnings
$
% change
Wage Price Index
$
% change
Australia
Gross domestic product
International exports
International imports
Total population
Population aged 15 to 64
Employment (’000s)
Unemployment
Unemployment rate
Consumer Price Index
Average Weekly Earnings
Wage Price Index
2013-14
20 961
5.5
1.3%
28 775
6.8
9112
3.5
849
30.1
8,950
9.6
1,353
50.0
6 600
4.1
3 852
-20.6
3 021
5.7
244
2.0
182
2.3
131
4.7
6.0
4.4
106.8
3.6
1248.50
0.9
118.50
2.9
2013-14
Constant price ($m)
% change
Constant price ($m)
% change
Constant price ($m)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
% change
Persons (’000s)
%
1989-90 = 100
% change
$
% change
% change
2014-15
22 012
5.0
1.4%
28 654
-0.4
9672
6.1
901
6.2
7,112
-20.5
1,678
24.0
7 960
20.6
4 119
6.9
3 196
5.8
250
2.5
187
2.7
136
3.3
5.8
4.1
109.1
2.2
1309.10
4.9
122.58
3.4
2014-15
2015-16
23 042
4.7
1.4%
28 063
-2.1
10271
6.2
986
9.4
5,620
-21.0
1,558
-7.1
8 694
9.2
4 283
4.0
3 307
3.5
256
2.6
193
2.9
138
1.7
6.9
4.8
112.0
2.7
1355.60
3.6
126.75
3.4
2015-16
2016-17
24 186
5.0
1.4%
27 642
-1.5
10780
5.0
1065
8.0
4,460
-20.6
1,497
-3.9
9 321
7.2
4 639
8.3
3 429
3.7
263
2.6
198
2.9
141
2.1
7.5
5.0
115.3
2.9
1410.98
4.1
131.80
4.0
5 year
average
annual
2017-18 growth
25 242
4.4
4.9
1.4%
26 600
-3.8
-0.3
11243
4.3
5.0
1099
3.2
11.0
3,023
-32.2
-18.0
1,183
-21.0
5.6
9 990
7.2
9.5
5 044
8.7
0.8
3 578
4.3
4.6
270
2.6
2.5
204
2.8
2.7
144
2.2
2.8
7.5
5.0
4.6
118.2
2.5
2.8
1466.70
3.9
3.5
136.83
3.8
3.5
2016-17
5 year
average
annual
2017-18 growth
# 1 567 281 1 610 090 1 655 005 1 706 824 1 759 232
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.1
#
299 496
316 073
333 811
357 708
379 946
5.8
5.5
5.6
7.2
6.2
#
250 999
250 771
246 319
257 003
267 290
-2.1
-0.1
-1.8
4.3
4.0
#
23 391
23 807
24 228
24 651
25 077
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
#
18 880
19 215
19 557
19 897
20 235
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
#
11 512
11 648
11 840
12 068
12 299
0.8
1.2
1.6
1.9
1.9
#
729
774
773
770
762
6.0
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.8
#
105.1
107.4
110.4
113.6
116.5
2.8
2.2
2.7
2.9
2.6
#
1119.03
1150.67
1188.00
1235.68
1284.95
3.0
2.8
3.2
4.0
4.0
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.8
3.8
2.9
6.1
0.8
1.8
1.8
1.5
6.0
2.6
3.4
3.2
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
1. Base year 2011-12.
4
economic brief
Deloitte Access Economics March quarter 2014
Table 4: Deloitte Access Economics - Financial Outlook - Forecasts
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
3 year
2.9%
3.0%
3.6%
4.6%
5.0%
4.8%
5 year
3.0%
3.4%
4.1%
4.8%
5.1%
5.0%
10 year
4.2%
4.5%
5.2%
5.7%
5.9%
5.9%
6.5%
6.0%
6.0%
6.9%
7.1%
6.4%
90 days
3.1%
2.6%
3.0%
4.1%
4.7%
4.5%
180 days
3.1%
2.7%
3.0%
4.2%
4.7%
4.5%
77.4
1.037
87.4
0.805
70.1
0.913
92.3
0.675
65.7
0.882
88.6
0.643
63.3
0.855
87.3
0.599
61.2
0.825
84.8
0.572
59.3
0.800
82.8
0.551
113.44
116.87
114.89
114.37
116.30
121.36
-5.0%
3.0%
-1.7%
-0.5%
1.7%
1.7%
Treasury bonds
Standard variable mortgage interest rate
Commercial bank bills:
Exchange rates
Trade weighted index
$US per $A
Yen per $A
Euro per $A
Crude oil prices
Crude oil (Tapis, $US/barrel)
% change
Source: Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook
Although all due care has been exercised in the preparation of this material, no responsibility is accepted for any
errors or omission.
5