J. Y. Abor & M. Amidu University of Ghana ESRC Reference: ES/N013344/1: Delivering Inclusive Financial Development and Growth Research Project Workshop SOAS University of London 3rd – 4th March, 2017 • Motivating the study • Remittances: Some stylised facts • Review of related literature • Model and estimation strategy • Empirical results • Conclusion • In 2014 the total amount of remittances to Africa was $63.18 billion (AfDB/OECD/UNDP, 2016). • Consequently, as international remittance flows to Africa remain robust, concerns are being raised about the potential implications of these inflows for the banking system. • However, empirical evidence on (banks –remittance nexus) needed for policy direction is limited (Demirgüç-Kunt, Córdova et al. 2011). • Demirgüç-Kunt et al. (2011) argue that remittances could lift or hurt the banking sector. • On the one hand, remittances could foster banking sector development. • by increasing bank deposits, • by allowing banks to earn fee income from transfers, • by making it possible for banks to reach out to unbanked remittance recipients (i.e. financial inclusion) • On the other had remittances could stifle banking sector development by . easing difficulties in access to credit, . reducing both the demand for credit and the amount of credit available in the banking system • Empirical evidence is therefore needed to test which of these effects is dominant in Africa • The extant literature is grouped into 3: • Studies that have examined the effect of remittances on financial development in general (Adenutsi, 2011; Chowdhury, 2011; Cooray, 2012; Coulibaly, 2015; Gupta, Pattillo, & Wagh, 2009) • Studies that looked at the link between remittances and banking sector depth (Aggarwal, Demirgüç-Kunt, & Pería, 2011) • Studies that assessed the effect of remittances on banking sector breadth and depth (Brown, Carmignani, & Fayad, 2013; Demirgüç-Kunt et al., 2011) • Our study examines the effect of remittances on four channels of banking sector development simultaneously: • • • • Banking sector efficiency Banking sector stability Banking sector depth Banking sector breadth • Our contribution is to unravel the channels by which remittances and monetary policy affect banking sector in Africa • In this study, we examine how remittances and monetary policy affect various mechanisms of banking sector development Banking sector: • • • • Banking sector efficiency Banking sector stability Banking sector breadth Banking sector depth • Our contribution is to unravel how remittances and monetary policy affect different channels of banking sector development in Africa Average 2004-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 North Africa 16.39 18.84 24.08 25.97 30.35 29.43 31.26 Central Africa 0.21 0.33 0.28 0.56 0.46 0.52 0.51 East Africa 1.75 2.41 2.77 3.16 3.62 3.76 4.01 Southern Africa 1.66 1.71 2.00 2.12 2.03 1.82 1.61 West Africa 16.67 21.64 23.42 25.06 25.42 25.66 25.79 Total 36.68 44.93 52.56 56.87 61.89 61.20 63.18 GDP Total remittances to Africa as % of GDP 1284.40 1629.30 1936.48 2149.38 2298.91 2388.01 2461.50 2.86 2.76 2.71 2.65 2.69 2.56 2.57 70.0 Current USD, billion 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 Low-income-countries 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Lower-middle-income countries 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Upper-middle-income countries 2014 Banking Sector Development Indicator Depth Private credit by deposit money banks to GDP (%) Private credit by deposit money banks and other financial institutions to GDP (%) Deposit money banks' assets to GDP (%) Breadth Bank accounts per 1,000 adults Bank branches per 100,000 adults Efficiency Bank net interest margin (%) Cost to income ratio (%) Stability Bank Z-score Bank nonperforming loans to gross loans (%) 2011 2012 Year 2013 World SSA World 37.6 16.4 39.3 38.4 16.4 41.2 40.2 16.5 42.8 43.7 15.7 45.7 40.0 16.3 42.3 SSA World SSA 16.4 45.1 21.0 16.4 48.9 20.8 16.6 49.8 22.8 16.6 52.7 23.8 16.5 49.1 22.1 World SSA World SSA 433.1 132.2 14.1 3.7 461.0 157.9 13.2 3.8 499.1 153.4 13.9 4.2 653.5 157.7 15.5 4.1 511.7 150.3 14.2 3.9 World SSA World SSA 4.2 6.6 55.8 60.0 4.1 6.1 55.0 60.9 3.8 6.4 56.2 61.2 2.7 3.7 51.5 49.5 3.7 5.7 54.6 57.9 World SSA World SSA 10.0 8.0 4.1 5.6 9.9 8.4 4.1 4.6 9.9 7.7 4.4 5.1 9.9 7.7 4.4 5.2 9.9 8.0 4.2 5.1 2014 Average Measures of banking sector development (BSD) Measure of remittances Authors Geogra-phy Method Data Freq./Time span Key finding Depth -Bank deposits/GDP; Bank credit to private sector/GDP Breath -No. of branches and deposit accounts per capita; Depth -Bank deposits/GDP and bank loans/GDP Bank efficiency -Banks’ net interest margin/total assets and banks’ overhead costs/total assets Depth: Deposit banks’ assets/GDP, liquid assets/GDP, bank credit to private sector/GDP Depth -Domestic credit to private sector/GDP Breadth -Having a bank account Remittances as a % of GDP % of households receiving remittances Aggarwal et al. (2011) DemirgüçKunt et al. (2011) 109 DCs SGMM Remittances promote financial depth Mexico Tobit Annual 1975–2007 Cross-sectional data Remittances as a % of GDP Cooray (2012) 94 non-OECD countries Pooled OLS and SGMM Panel (Annual) 1990–2010 Cash remittances received; proportion of households that received cash remittance; remittances as a % of GDP Brown et al. (2013) Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan 2SLS and Probit Annual 1970–2005 Cross-sectional Remittances increase financial sector size in countries with low government ownership, but increases the efficiency of financial sector in countries where government ownership of banks is high Remittances negatively affect financial development and financial literacy Remittances promote banking sector development (breadth and depth) Measure of financial development (FD) Authors Geography Method Data Freq./Time Span Key finding Size and concentration of banking sector, measures of banking sector health, external funding sources Elbourne & de Haan (2006) 11 transition countries SVAR Monthly Monetary policy and financial structure unrelated Sign restrictions (interest rate rises, output and prices do not fall) Probability of distress (financial instability) De Graeve, Kick, & Koetter (2008) Germany VAR Annual 1995-2004 Unexpected tightening of monetary policy increases financial instability T-bill rate Profitability, probability of bank failure (instability) Cadet (2009) Developing countries Modelling No data Tightening monetary policy increases financial instability Measure of monetary policy (MP) Interest rate • We model banking sector development as a function of remittances, monetary policy and other controls as follows: • Where BSDit is a measure of banking sector development, Remitit is remittances flow/GDP, MPit is monetary policy stance. Xit is a vector of control variables often included in standard financial development models. • These controls include • trade openness, • financial openness, savings and • institutional quality. • 𝛾𝑖 depicts country fixed effects, • 𝛿𝑡 captures time effect while 𝜀𝑖,𝑡 is the random error term. • The subscripts i and t represent country and time respectively. • To resolve the endogeneity of remittances, we employ two stage least squares (2SLS) as the estimation strategy • The following tests/measures are taken to ensure the validity of estimates: • Wald Chi-square test for joint significance of coefficients, • the Woolridge’s overidentifying restrictions test of which the null hypothesis is that the instruments are valid, • Woolridge’s robust score test for exogeneity of which the null hypothesis is that remittances is exogenous, • Robust regression exogeneity test of which the null hypothesis is that remittance is exogenous. Variable Definition Measures of Banking sector development Bank credit Domestic credit to the private sector provided by banks/GDP Financial credit Credit provided by the financial system (both public and private)/GDP Domestic credit Total domestic credit to the private sector/GDP Mean Med. Std. Dev. Data Source 21.1562 15.7361 17.0591 GFDD 44.0444 28.3699 47.2708 GFDD 35.0747 19.9068 34.2109 GFDD Broad money Annual broad money growth Accounts No. of accounts per 1,000 people Branches Bank branches per 100,000 people Interest margin Net interest margin Z-score Bank Z-score Measures of monetary policy stance Lending rate Lending interest rate Deposit rate Deposit interest rate Discount rate Central bank discount rate 16.5354 239.9416 5.9067 6.5932 15.1199 14.3923 124.6874 3.3909 5.7494 13.5343 15.4350 274.0828 7.2832 3.8081 9.6564 GFDD GFDD GFDD GFDD GFDD 17.7611 7.1939 11.5271 16.0704 5.0000 10.0000 8.4002 5.6586 7.3017 WDI FAS FAS Remit Control variables Savings Openness Trade Institutions Personal remittances/GDP 3.8498 1.7148 7.5666 WDI Gross savings/GDP Foreign direct investment/GDP Total trade/GDP Institutional quality 11.8161 4.0836 71.8319 -0.2638 11.5027 2.2746 64.1912 -0.2790 16.4631 5.7808 35.4562 0.2912 WDI WDI WDI WGI Bank credit Financial credit Domestic credit Accounts Branches Interest margin Z-score Deposit rate Lending rate Discount rate Opennes s Savings Bank credit Financial credit 1.0000 0.8495* 1.0000 Domestic credit Accounts Branches Interest margin 0.8951* 0.9237* 1.0000 0.6377* 0.5302* -0.4271* 0.3963* 0.4726* -0.4659* 0.6622* 0.5462* -0.5000* 1.0000 0.7833* -0.2470* 1.0000 -0.2816* 1.0000 Z-score 0.3115* 0.2738* 0.1420 0.1410 0.1655 -0.2263* 1.0000 Deposit rate Lending rate -0.0788 -0.3750* -0.1035 -0.3318* -0.1274 -0.3976* -0.0096 -0.2415 -0.0827 -0.2214 0.4652* 0.6008* -0.1620 -0.0189 1.0000 0.8040* 1.0000 Discount rate -0.2855* -0.4089* -0.5547* -0.1844 -0.3202* 0.4411* -0.0997 0.8068* 0.8053* 1.0000 Openness 0.0070 -0.1195 -0.0899 0.1254 0.1983* 0.1052 -0.2104* 0.0303 0.0208 -0.0921 1.0000 Savings 0.1272 -0.0032 0.1999 0.1278 0.1297 -0.1799* 0.0975 -0.1283 -0.2127* -0.3283* -0.0740 1.0000 Trade Institutions Remit 0.1061 0.5131* 0.0368 -0.0268 0.2223 0.1194 0.0975 0.4321* 0.0189 0.3447* 0.5094* 0.1492 0.5125* 0.4817* 0.0446 -0.0096 -0.0869 -0.0158 -0.0739 0.1666 0.0570 -0.0921 0.1126 -0.1177 -0.1704 -0.1488 -0.1166 -0.1338 0.0392 0.0314 0.5077* 0.1185 0.1884* -0.0652 0.0327 -0.5739* Trade 1.0000 0.3109* 0.4901* Institution s 1.0000 0.1168 Remit 1.0000 (1) (2) (3) (4) (6) (7) (8) Accounts Branches Interest margin Z score Variables Bank credit Remit 4.304*** 47.34** 74.77** 3.497*** 33.32*** 0.467 -0.458*** 9.934*** (0.967) (22.25) (33.96) (0.825) (6.320) (0.355) (0.167) (2.032) 0.119 2.961 4.489 -1.130** -0.0396 -0.0534 0.313*** 0.960*** (0.407) 0.353 (0.470) 1.320*** (0.301) -0.556*** (0.116) 4.226*** (0.581) 37.41*** (8.818) (2.362) -2.817 (2.860) -4.561*** (1.671) -0.800* (0.479) 40.19*** (14.60) 71.66 (66.23) (3.546) -3.517 (4.419) -7.983*** (2.615) -1.354* (0.746) 59.66*** (21.82) 112.5 (103.7) (0.480) 0.366 (0.428) 1.117*** (0.255) -0.361*** (0.108) 3.559*** (0.466) 64.86*** (9.740) (3.569) 4.560 (5.033) 11.26*** (1.870) -0.888 (0.955) 21.51*** (7.827) 83.18 (109.0) (0.106) 0.0851 (0.101) 0.214** (0.0939) 0.0724** (0.0349) 0.491** (0.211) -2.113 (3.377) (0.105) -0.0625 (0.0495) -0.150*** (0.0550) 0.0630** (0.0250) -0.327** (0.146) 0.821 (2.546) (0.315) -0.397 (0.537) -0.957*** (0.268) -0.205** (0.103) 7.933*** (1.790) 18.70* (9.708) 287 35 94.65*** 1.6438 (0.4396) 42.0837*** 212.598*** 131 35 12.14* 4.4707 (0.1070) 39.557*** 73.584*** 131 35 14.34** 3.5466 (0.1698) 41.0157*** 76.7272*** 286 35 198.27*** 0.1115 (0.9457) 57.1015*** 61.8617*** 156 35 60.75*** 1.3815 (0.5012) 31.7253*** 87.8968*** 208 35 70.31*** 1.46034 (0.4818) 11.5487*** 13.1612*** 240 35 91.67*** 0 .3027*** (0.8595) 12.0935*** 13.4001*** 131 35 31.96*** 3.4313 (0.1798) 31.4701*** 103.3660*** MP (Lending rate) Openness Savings Trade Open Institutions Constant Diagnostics Observations No. of Countries Wald Chi2 (stat) Woolridge’s OIR Woolridge Rob. Rob. Reg. Domestic credit Financial credit Broad money (5) Variables Remit MP (Deposit rate) Openness Savings Trade Institutions Constant Diagnostics Observations Wald Chi2(stat) Woolridge’s OIR Woolridge Rob. Rob. Reg. (25) Bank credit 5.279*** (0.957) 0.685* (0.369) 0.462 (0.526) 1.732*** (0.295) -0.566*** (0.117) 4.108*** (0.539) 22.64*** (5.608) (26) Domestic credit 32.56*** (7.210) 3.739* (1.978) -3.494* (1.875) -3.240*** (0.862) -0.468 (0.345) 27.90*** (5.645) 64.12** (29.13) 387 83.04*** 1.9739 (0.3727) 49.9998*** 266.958*** 162 26.85*** 6.9036 (0.0317) 38.9646*** 148.183*** (27) (28) Financial credit Broad money 51.23*** 5.948*** (10.94) (0.984) 4.644 0.239 (3.038) (0.415) -3.799 0.604 (2.901) (0.623) -5.731*** 2.065*** (1.380) (0.292) -0.727 -0.494*** (0.525) (0.134) 39.59*** 4.295*** (8.323) (0.582) 95.80** 29.52*** (45.73) (6.995) (29) Branches 0.827*** (0.300) 0.00730 (0.104) 0.160 (0.106) 0.340*** (0.0761) 0.0478 (0.0339) 0.773*** (0.188) -4.516** (2.169) (30) Accounts 43.86*** (8.099) 10.92** (4.476) 6.617 (5.027) 15.35*** (2.317) -1.040 (0.920) 27.64*** (8.194) -114.8* (65.35) (31) Interest margin -0.744*** (0.170) 0.272*** (0.0782) -0.150** (0.0621) -0.251*** (0.0456) 0.0941*** (0.0274) -0.515*** (0.154) 4.049*** (1.417) (32) Z score 0.439 (0.308) -0.853*** (0.164) -0.0975 (0.119) 0.154 (0.100) -0.0920** (0.0421) 0.818*** (0.210) 25.58*** (2.205) 162 26.44*** 6.6023 (0.0368) 39.3079*** 159.777*** 272 63.47*** 2.3072 (0.3155) 27.541*** 31.2425** * 212 63.84*** 0.2932 (0.8636) 34.1447*** 109.757*** 325 88.74*** 0.0193 (0.9904) 24.744*** 28.4862*** 316 92.96*** 0.6368 (0.7273) 0.0102 0.0098 386 116.52*** 0.6119 (0.7364) 80.1153*** 99.0466*** Variables Remit MP (Discount rate) Openness Savings Trade Institutions Constant Diagnostics Observations Wald Chi2(stat) Woolridge’s OIR Woolridge’s Rob. Rob. Reg. (33) Bank credit (35) Financial credit 25.91*** (7.170) 2.235 (2.101) -1.116 (1.951) -2.808*** (0.894) -0.272 (0.385) 15.07*** (5.847) 20.61 (43.90) (36) Broad money (37) Branches (38) Accounts 2.119*** (0.340) -0.844*** (0.250) 0.189 (0.226) 0.578*** (0.120) -0.359*** (0.0595) 2.121*** (0.301) 42.27*** (4.645) (34) Domestic credit 12.28*** (3.177) 1.107 (0.942) -0.968 (0.813) -0.848** (0.360) 0.0102 (0.171) 8.098*** (2.630) 5.350 (19.26) 34.90*** (4.761) -0.896 (3.610) -4.433 (5.088) 11.54*** (1.522) -2.662** (1.048) 21.56*** (5.795) 187.0** (81.07) (39) Interest margin -0.558*** (0.141) 0.256*** (0.0630) -0.0296 (0.0651) -0.156*** (0.0302) 0.105*** (0.0373) -0.403** (0.177) 0.826 (2.171) 3.845*** (0.629) -1.941*** (0.471) 0.253 (0.444) 1.122*** (0.213) -0.505*** (0.124) 4.317*** (0.624) 76.37*** (9.036) 0.386*** (0.145) -0.360*** (0.0919) -0.0391 (0.0627) 0.155*** (0.0373) 0.00281 (0.0367) 0.596*** (0.149) 6.976*** (1.999) 227 83.22*** 0.3680 (0.8319) 47.3364*** 49.8305*** 96 44.59*** 0.4916 (0.7821) 19.0566*** 119.424*** 96 46.54*** 0.6136 (0.7358) 21.9292*** 149.543*** 227 106.70*** 0.2233 (0.8944) 65.5013*** 64.5726*** 161 77.85*** 3.4920 (0.1745) 19.5486*** 27.6935*** (40) Z score 0.807** (0.408) -0.591*** (0.158) -0.282** (0.131) 0.0907 (0.107) -0.242*** (0.0921) 1.428*** (0.342) 39.21*** (4.836) 119 104.46*** 2.2497 (0.3247) 41.3687*** 243.713*** 188 78.31*** 0.5657 (0.7536) 14.2304*** 17.0692*** 179 70.18*** 0.0418 (0.9793) 2.5319 2.6104 Variables Remit MP (Lending rate) Openness Savings Trade Institutions Constant Diagnostics Observations Wald Chi2(stat) Woolridge’s OIR Woolridge’s Rob. Rob. Reg. (9) Bank credit (10) Domestic credit (11) Financial credit (12) Broad money (13) Accounts (14) Branches (15) Interest margin (16) Z score 4.013** -36.59* -43.97* 2.368* 21.18*** 1.421 -0.107 12.43*** (1.631) (20.60) (23.67) (1.335) (6.426) (1.005) (0.111) (3.621)M -0.398 -9.632* -13.53** -2.453*** -6.768 0.334 0.417*** 1.924* (0.606) 1.117 (1.244) 1.347** (0.632) -0.628*** (0.173) 5.975*** (1.156) 49.17*** (17.68) (5.552) 4.295* (2.586) 2.459 (2.519) -1.795*** (0.368) -17.50 (15.49) 335.3*** (84.11) (6.400) 6.888** (3.480) 1.924 (2.874) -2.845*** (0.450) -22.01 (17.83) 492.5*** (97.25) (5.608) 23.96*** (8.530) 9.053*** (2.744) -1.110 (0.975) 8.648 (7.564) 196.7 (149.3) (0.276) 1.218* (0.659) 0.569* (0.316) -0.0623 (0.0873) 1.002** (0.496) -11.01 (9.159) (0.0493) -0.242* (0.135) -0.0514 (0.0408) 0.0361* (0.0193) 0.00832 (0.100) -0.923 (0.977) (1.137) -0.945 (0.923) -1.312** (0.563) -0.101 (0.116) 9.792*** (3.257) -0.714 (15.98) (0.611) 1.171 (0.915) 0.883 (0.545) -0.324** (0.139) 3.234*** (0.882) 86.63*** (16.87) 176 94 94 176 105 125 138 53.00*** 31.44*** 68.43*** 68.51*** 22.13*** 12.73** 105.21*** 3.7299 4.02416 4.28452 1.3042 0.1208 0.4051 4.2340 (0.1549) (0.1337) (0.1174) (0.5210) (0.9414) (13.7735) (1.0096) 27.9548*** 9.5716*** 9.4927*** 14.4032*** 15.878*** 13.7735*** 1.0096 46.7101*** 47.4447*** 45.988*** 16.2112*** 27.006*** 17.1646*** 0.9389 94 17.44** 0.4575 (0.7955) 31.7206*** 169.052*** Variables Remit MP (Lending rate) Openness Savings Trade Institutions Constant (17) Bank credit (18) Domestic credit (19) Financial credit (20) Broad money (21) Accounts (22) Branches (23) Interest margin (24) Z score 4.698 -0.849 -0.0277 13.35 15.00** 0.0571 3.741 7.178*** (6.053) (1.229) (1.176) (20.12) (7.540) (0.0727) (4.579) (1.595) -0.714* -0.380** -0.136 -1.221 1.394 -0.0159 0.150 1.048** (0.404) -0.00721 (0.211) -0.346** (0.173) 0.177 (0.149) 0.939*** (0.355) 15.88** (7.910) (0.176) -0.142 (0.342) 0.103 (0.119) 0.383*** (0.0948) -4.079 (3.667) -11.81 (11.82) (0.314) -0.729 (0.598) -0.341 (0.227) 0.337** (0.139) 1.392 (3.825) 11.16 (12.74) (1.287) -0.141 (0.614) -0.653 (0.503) 0.421 (0.472) 1.732*** (0.606) 19.15 (22.29) (1.758) 0.0264 (0.754) -1.014 (0.756) 1.007* (0.516) 25.78*** (6.467) 106.4 (78.66) (0.0215) 0.0347*** (0.00865) -0.0136 (0.0213) 0.0145*** (0.00515) 0.0772 (0.138) 1.779 (1.135) (0.392) -0.0165 (0.133) -0.0143 (0.179) 0.0646 (0.135) -0.797** (0.326) -5.149 (5.889) (0.439) 0.00726 (1.006) 0.122 (0.247) -0.581*** (0.200) 23.69*** (5.109) 78.34*** (15.18) 111 30.42*** 0.2869 (0.8663) 1.3987 1.3316 37 81.79*** 3.8939 (0.1427) 2.2489 5.1727* 37 118.54*** 0.4622 (0.7937) 0.0939 0.0735 110 22.65*** 0.5935 (0.7432) 6.1555** 5.4505** 51 174.52*** 1.6965 (0.4282) 1.9725 2.3214 72 89.19*** 3.0939 (0.2129) 0.6853 0.5797 102 22.21*** 2.0405 (0.3605) 0.9040 0.9488 37 31.06*** 0.1287 (0.9377) 11.193*** 137.949*** Diagnostics Observations Wald Chi2 (stat) Woolridge’s OIR Woolridge’s Rob. Rob. Reg. • There is evidence that remittances reduce banking sector inefficiency while promoting depth, breadth and stability. • Remittances significantly help stabilise banks in low income countries and in middle and high income countries. • An increase in remittance inflows and contraction of monetary policy are associated with a lowering of banking sector efficiency. • In all samples, monetary tightening boosts banking stability while reducing banking sector depth and efficiency. • Clearly, remittance holds great potential for advancing the banking sector in Africa • This potential can be tapped by: • Encouraging the receipt of remittances through formal channels • Making access to finance easy for all citizens • Reducing the costs of sending/receiving remittances • The results call for a tactful use of contractionary monetary policy by central banks in order to attain a balanced development of the banking sector.
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