STRATCAP Internal Case Studies
Actionable Events Across Regions
STRATFOR Predictions
1997 - 1999
• Asia Crisis
• Suharto
2000 - 2002
• Wahid Ousted
• Estrada Ousted
• China joins WTO
• US/Iran Alliance
• Japan military
• Argentina
agriculture
• Iraq War WMDs
2003 - 2005
• EU unity
• Russia influence
• Iraq war
• Hamas policies
• US/Pakistan
• China instability
• US/China
relations
2006 - 2008
• Spain/Italy
housing
• Berlin/Moscow
• Ethiopia/Somalia
• Russia/Georgia
• Bolivia Nat Gas
• Turkey
reemergence
• Argentina
agriculture
• Chilean unrest
• Iran Instability
• Fall of Musharraf
• Pakistani/al
Qaeda relations
• NATO/Afghan
Taliban
• Zuma election
• China/Peru FTA
• Thai political
disruptions
• Russian Rouble
2009 - 2011
• Greece/Ireland
• Russia
Privatization Plan
• North Korean
Nuclear Tests
• Angola
• Niger Delta
• Ivory Coast War
• Drug War
• Peru election
• Iran Uprisings
• Bolivia/Brazil
• Argentina econ
instability
• Venezuela
instability
• Mubarak
• Lybia Civil War
• Japan nuclear
plant meltdown
• Zambia/China
European Union - Detailed Summary
Date / Document
Incident
Details
2005 Decade Forecast
Decline of EU’s unity
STRATFOR warned of EU troubles that would shake its political
foundation. The crisis raised questions as to whether the euro
will continue to survive and underscored Germany’s pivotal, and
increasingly powerful, role within the region.
August 2007
Spain and Italy
housing crises
STRATFOR highlighted that Spain and Italy were facing a
deeper housing crises than the U.S.
June 2009
Greece & Ireland
Sovereign Debt Crisis
STRATFOR predicted that Greece would likely become the first
European country to face significant economic problems beyond
its control (w/ Ireland likely to follow). This would put pressure on
the EU, particularly Germany, to bail out another member state.
Russia / Former Soviet Union - Detailed Summary
Date / Document
Incident
Details
2005 Annual
Forecast
Russia’s increasing
influence
STRATFOR predicted that Russia would respond to the Western
geopolitical penetration of its sphere of influence: born out with a
reconsolidation of the majority of Russia’s former Soviet space under
Moscow’s control, including (i) Kazakhstan and Belarus unions, (ii)
Georgia invasion, (iii) large military deployments to Tajikistan,
Kyrgyzstan, & Armenia, (iv) supporting reversal of a pro-Orange
government in Ukraine, & (v) boosting the effectiveness of its security
alliance
2006
Berlin and Moscow
Alliance
As of 2006, STRATFOR started to predict Berlin and Moscow moving
closer together as each saw a strategic partnership fitting their motives
in the region. This prediction has born out politically and economically,
particularly in security and energy
2008
Russian invasion of
Georgia
After the US and the West recognized Kosovo in 2008, STRATFOR
predicted Russia would militarily react to prove that the US and NATO
could not guarantee the security of Russia’s former Soviet states. A
prediction that was born out when Russia invaded Georgia. STRATFOR
knew of this invasion the night before the media picked it up
Russia / Former Soviet Union - Detailed Summary
Date / Document
Incident
Details
2008
Russian Rouble
STRATFOR knew (internally) that Putin called a majority of the
oligarchs for an emergency, required meeting to discuss the Russian
Rouble. From this, STRATFOR inferred that the meeting would be a
discussion about the oligarchs participating in a rescue of the Rouble.
Two days later, news of both the meeting and the outcome were
announced in the media.
October 2009
Russian
Privatization Plan
STRATFOR outlined rivalries within the Kremlin and targets of an
anticipated purge, resulting from a planned economic reform program.
The program was publicly announced weeks later with more granular
consequences (as predicted) in the final months of the year.
STRATFOR knew about the Russian privatization program as well as
the government’s plan to address corrupt budgeting processes, grant
new powers to the Security Council, reshuffle officials at the Interior
Ministry, and expand the powers of the Federal Security Service
Middle East - Detailed Summary
Date / Document
Incident
Details
October 2002
US / Iran Alliance
STRATFOR predicted that the U.S. would have to work with the
Iranians on the issue of Iraq. This was six months before the 2003
invasion of Iraq. This became clear in March 2007, when Iranian
officials met their U.S. counterparts in Baghdad
November 2002
Iraq War / WMDs
STRATFOR warned that U.S. forces were not invading Iraq because of
weapons of mass destruction, the explanation publicly given by
Washington, and that the issue eventually would haunt the Bush
administration
March 2003
Iraq war
Six hours before the first bombs began to fall, STRATFOR alerted
readers that the U.S. war in Iraq had begun
June 2004
Switch in Hamas
Policies
STRATFOR stated that Hamas would opt for mainstream politics as
opposed to pure militancy. This was proven out two years later when
Hamas participated in elections for the first time
July 2007
Turkey
reemergence
STRATFOR predicted that Turkey would emerge from its post-Ottoman
period of introspection and move to reclaim its role as a regional power.
This became evident mid-2010 with Turkey’s challenge to Israel over its
blockade of Gaza
June 2008
Iranian Power
Instability
STRATFOR wrote about splits between conservatives in Iran’s power
circles – more than a year before those splits became evident, with
political turmoil surrounding presidential elections
June 2009
Iranian Uprisings
STRATFOR predicted that the uprisings were not as meaningful as the
media was portraying and the status quo would prevail
South Asia - Detailed Summary
Date / Document
Incident
Details
January 2004
U.S. Pakistan
operations
STRATFOR predicted as early as January 2004 that the U.S. would
conduct overt operations in northwestern Pakistan, a movement that
was seen unfolding more than four years later
March 2007
Fall of Musharraf
regime
STRATFOR foresaw the demise of the Musharraf regime in Pakistan 17
months before the president left office
December 2007
Pakistani / al
Qaeda relations
STRATFOR repeated that Pakistan would become the new
battleground against al Qaeda
May 2008
NATO / Afghan
Taliban Discussions
STRATFOR publicly explored the possibility of NATO officials splitting
and negotiating with Afghan Taliban members – at the time this was
being discussed privately within NATO. The issue gained traction, with a
consensus emerging publicly well over a year later on the eve of a
January 2010 conference on the Afghanistan conflict in London
Asia / South Pacific - Detailed Summary
Date / Document
Incident
Details
1995 Decade
Forecast
Asian Economic
Crisis
In 1996, STRATFOR stated that East Asian economies were at the
peak of their growth cycle, foreshadowing the Asian financial crisis that
unfolded in 1997
May 1998
Indonesian
Elections
Suharto resigned as President due to strong opposition over his rule.
STRATFOR knew Megawati Sukarnoputri would not take his place
despite widespread belief that Sukarnoputri would be the next
President. Sukarnoputri would be too big of a break from prior,
established rule. Habibie, Suharto’s VP, ultimately became President
and undertook some liberal political reforms
November 2001
China’s WTO
banking
requirements
STRATFOR understood the requirements for joining the WTO and
estimated how China would manipulate its existing system to meet
these requirements. STRATFOR focused on how China would handle
its banks with increasingly poor balance sheets. China ultimately
created asset management companies that took on the banks’ bad
assets, “cleaning” up the banks’ balance sheets and making them more
attractive investments to outside capital. With attractive balance sheets,
it did not make sense for foreign capital to set-up their own banks to
compete against China. In summary, China ostensibly allowed foreign
investors into the country (which the WTO required), but did so in a
manner that didn’t hurt their control over the banking sector.
2001
Indonesian &
Philippine
government
disruption
STRATFOR accurately predicted the downfall of the governments of
Abdurrahman Wahid in Indonesia and Joseph Estrada in the
Philippines, as well as naming their replacements (Megawati
Sukarnoputri and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo)
Asia / South Pacific - Detailed Summary (cont’d)
Date / Document
Incident
Details
2001
Japanese
militarization
STRATFOR foresaw Japan’s drive toward remilitarization.
2004 / ongoing
Chinese economic
instability
STRATFOR foresaw an economic overheating in China, accompanied
by growing pressures and disruptions of the Chinese “miracle.” At the
time, Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions did not agree with
STRATFOR, but over time they came to adopt STRATFORs analysis
December 2004
Souring relations
between China &
U.S.
STRATFOR foresaw that China’s fixed exchange rate policy and
growing trade deficits would lead to an economic confrontation between
China and its Western trading partners
December 2008
Thai political
disruptions
STRATFOR accurately predicted many events in Thailand’s political
crisis, including (i) that upon the dissolution of the People’s Power Party
(forerunner of the subsequent Puea Thai Party), the seeds of a new
phase of upheaval had already been planted and specifically noted the
possibility that protests would disrupt plans for an ASEAN summit and
(ii) in April 2009 and March 2010 that the Democrat Party-led
government would outlast periods of severe civil strife and violence also
were borne out
May 2009
North Korean
Nuclear Tests
STRATFOR knew (internally) that North Korea was planning a nuclear
weapon test five days prior to the actual (and highly publicized) test .
March 2011
Japanese Nuclear
Plant Meltdown
STRATFOR released a Red Alert the weekend of March 12 alerting
readers to the increasing risk of a nuclear threat posed by the tsunami
Africa - Detailed Summary
Date / Document
Incident
Details
July 2006
Ethiopia’s Somalia
intervention
STRATFOR predicted that Ethiopia would intervene in the conflict in
Somalia and send military forces as a counterterrorism effort
December 2007
South African Zuma
election
Despite popular belief that President-elect Zuma was a radical and
would implement anti-business policies, STRATFOR predicted that
Zuma would execute a centrist policy, a prediction that has proved
correct thus far
January 2009
Angola’s increasing
importance
STRATFOR accurately predicted that Angola would gain greater
recognition as a regional power in southern Africa. During the year,
Washington launched a series of high-level diplomatic meetings with
Angola and the country made its first appearance at the G-8 summit in
London. Moreover, throughout 2010 political recognition continued to
give rise to business recognition. With Angola’s fast growing, oil-driven
economy unencumbered by the constraints of civil war, visits by
representatives of many corporations and states in the region and
further abroad continued throughout the year, underscoring efforts to
develop economic relations and profits from the southern African state
2010
Niger Delta Peace
STRATFOR predicted that pipeline bombings and attacks from militant
groups would subside when the new government came to power
December 2010
Ivory Coast Civil
War
STRATFOR accurately predicted that instability in the Ivory Coast would
escalate to a civil war
2011
Egypt - Mubarak
Ousted
STRATFOR predicted that overthrow of Mubarak regime was a way for
the military to maintain control and prevent Mubarak’s son Gamal from
coming into power. Protests were a way to oust Mubarak and ensure
his son would not come to power.
Africa - Detailed Summary (cont’d)
Date / Document
Incident
Details
March 2011
Libya Civil War
STRATFOR predicted that there would be a civil war due to the
significant increase in arms and weapons crossing into the country
combined with a deep understanding of the power players involved in
the political structure of the country
September 2011
Zambia / China
relations
STRATFOR is currently predicting that Michael Sata (recently elected
President ) will work with China despite his campaign rhetoric based on
anti-business and trade with China.
Central and South America - Detailed Summary
Date / Document
Incident
Details
2000
Argentina’s ag
induced strife
STRATFOR predicted that the U.S. economic downturn was temporary,
and while it resulted in the dot-com crash, the U.S. economy would
surge over the next few years until late in the decade when it would
face a major downturn. We also predicted the economic situation would
influence the presidential election in 2000
2006
Bolivian Natural
Gas Nationalization
and Implications
When Bolivia attempted to nationalize its natural gas extraction and
transportation infrastructure, STRATFOR correctly predicted that the
impact of this effort would be to drive its neighbors (particularly Chile,
Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina) to seek global sources of natural gas.
This prediction was borne out when all four countries began to invest
significantly in liquefied natural gas regasification facilities. Brazil also
began to increase its domestic production of natural gas
2007
China / Peru Free
Trade Discussions
STRATFOR is actively tracking Peruvian / Chinese trade discussions as
Peru attempts to unseat Chile as the primary Asian trade partner in
South America. Peru’s major trade products include copper, zinc,
timber, and fish
April 2008
Argentina’s ag
induced strife
STRATFOR predicted that problems in Argentina’s agricultural and
energy sectors would lead to economic decline and social strife. This
forecast was borne out over the ensuing months with clashes between
the agricultural sector and the government. The practical result of this
deterioration can be seen in Argentina's switch from being a natural gas
exporter to a natural gas importer and in the fall in beef, wheat, and
corn production
Central and South America - Detailed Summary (cont’d)
Date / Document
Incident
Details
2008
Chilean social
unrest
STRATFOR correctly predicted as early as 2008 that rising incidences
of protests by Chilean youths were not isolated incidents, but signaled a
shift in demographics and politics in that country. This prediction has
been validated in subsequent years as Chilean student protests have
grown in size and influence alongside growing labor unrest and
pressure against the post-dictatorship Chilean governments
2009
Drug War instability
STRATFOR correctly predicted in 2009 the rising importance of Central
America in the Mexican drug war. This trend rose to a breakpoint in
2011 when elements of the Los Zetas cartel mass murdered peasants
in Guatemala, bringing unprecedented political attention to the issue
2009 Annual
Forecast
Mexican Drug
Cartels
STRATFOR highlighted that the influence of Mexican drug cartels would
become more evident within the U.S., but without a massive influx of
cartel-related crime from Mexico. During the year, La Familia
Michoacana expanded its networks throughout the U.S., but most
violence continued to be concentrated on Mexico’s side of the border
July 2011
Peruvian election
implications
STRATFOR predicted that, despite enormous worries in the financial
and political spheres that incoming Peruvian President Ollanta Humala
would use his leftist ideology to destabilize foreign investors, Humala
would prove to be a cooperative partner for direct investors. So far, this
has proven true as Humala has indeed begun to renegotiate many
aspects of Peru's mineral policies, but has made compromises to take
into account the needs of investors. As a result, he has been received
positively by the finance community
Central and South America - Detailed Summary (cont’d)
Date / Document
Incident
Details
September 2011
Bolivian / Brazilian
confrontation
STRATFOR correctly predicted that indigenous protests in the remote
Bolivian TIPNIS nature reserve would become a key point of bilateral
tension between Brazil and Bolivia. This prediction was born out in late
October and early November when a cascading set of circumstances
pushed the two into confrontation over the Bolivian government's
capitulation to indigenous demands in direct violation of its agreements
with Brazil
2011
Argentinian
economic instability
In the lead up to the 2011 presidential elections, STRATFOR correctly
identified the economic growth trends as temporary. STRATFOR also
predicted (internally) that Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was likely to
win, and that in the wake of the October election her administration
would begin to lift prices on limited key goods and seek to reduce
Central Bank expenditures that were keeping the peso overvalued
Ongoing
Venezuelan
instability
STRATFOR has correctly predicted the gradual decline and
destabilization of the Venezuelan economy under the administration of
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as well as the government's
increasing reliance on oil revenues
Ongoing Calls & Looking Forward
Ongoing Calls
 China – trade agreements
 Zimbabwe – mining legislation
Looking Forward
 South China Sea – tension in the region
 China – trade agreements with Tanzania and Kenya
 Russia – Customs Union; privatizations
 Turkey – re-emerging as a regional power resulting in increased Mediterranean
tension
 Argentina – potential run on the banks
 Venezuela – food and resource scarcity finally driving Chavez out