What are the Opportunities in the
Transport Sector to help Drive Renewable
Energy Uptake? – Renewables Perspective
Christian Hochfeld
Executive Director, Agora Verkehrswende
COP 22, Transport Day 2016, Break-Out Session
Marrakech, November 13, 2016
The ‚Verkehrswende‘ needs both the Mobility Revolution as
well as the Energy Transition in Transport
Decarbonisation needs a comprehensive approach
Avoid
+ Modal Shift
+ Improve
Mobility
Revolution
•
Amibitious Climate Goals can only
be met by both Mobility Revolution
and Energy Transition in Transport.
•
The Mobility Revolution will reduce
the Final Energy Demand of
Transport, so the remaining Demand
can be covered by Renewables.
•
GHG-reductions by more than 60%
can only be reached with the Energy
Transition in Transport.
-40%
up to
-60%
-100%
+
Energy
Transition
In Transport
Alternative
Drives and Fuels
Sources: BMUB Klimaschutzbericht 2015; Projektionsbericht der Bundesregierung 2015. UBA 2015
Transport Day 2016 | 13.11.2016
2
Options for the ‚post fossil‘ Future of Transport
Mainly Electricity from Sun and Wind will replace Fossil Fuels.
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE
Liquid or
Gaseous
Bio Fuels
Liquid or Gaseous
Power Generated
Fuels (PtX)
Energy
Transition
in
Transport
Electric Mobility
(incl. PHEV, REEX and
Caternary Truck)
Fuel Cell Vehicles
with renewably
generated
Hydrogen
ALTERNATIVE PROPULSION
Source: Figure by INFRAS
Transport Day 2016 | 13.11.2016
3
Building Blocks for the Energy Transition
in Transportation (until 2050)
Building Blocks for the Energy Transition in Transport by mode (until
2050)
Source: INFRAS/Quantis 2015.
?
LDV
HDV
Bus
BEV as
<<<<<<<
benachmark
Preferential
<<<<<<<
technology open
BEV DC-charging
<<<<<<<
most promising
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Power-to-Liquid
<<<<<<< to
as alternative
Biokerosene
PtX
<<<<<<<
indispensable
Complete
<<<<<<<
electrification
Transport Day 2016 | 02.11.2016
4
Development of the Final Energy Demand of Transport
in Germany in different Scenarios
Final Energy Demand of Transport in Germany.
•
3.000
•
2.500
Final Energy Demand can be reduced by
about 60% until 2050 (compared to 2005).
Final Energy Demand in 2030 will still mainly
be covered by Fossil Fuels
PJ
2.000
•
In 2050 most Scenarios assume a high share
of BEV
•
In some Scenarios PtX or Biofuels will
complete the Decarbonisation of Transport
•
Increasing Efficiency is a prerequisite that
the remaining Energy Demand can be
covered by Renewables at economically
feasible costs
1.500
strombasiert
1.000
Strom
fossil
500
biogen
(2005)
Source: Compilation by Öko-Institut
2030
2050
KSBV Klimaschutz
(UBA)
ERP Ziel (BMWi)
KSZ - KS 95 (BMUB)
KSBV Klimaschutz
(UBA)
ERP Ziel (BMWi)
VP 2030 (BMVI)
KSZ - KS 95 (BMUB)
Energiebilanz
0
Transport Day 2016 | 13.11.2016
5
Electricfication of Transport in Germany can substantially
increase the Final Energy Demand
Gross Electricity Production in Germany 2015: 2.344 PJ - - -
•
3.000
•
2.500
PJ
2.000
1.500
•
1.000
500
•
(2005)
Source: Compilation by Öko-Institut
2030
KSBV Klimaschutz (UBA)
ERP Ziel (BMWi)
KSZ - KS 95 (BMUB)
KSBV Klimaschutz (UBA)
ERP Ziel (BMWi)
VP 2030 (BMVI)
KSZ - KS 95 (BMUB)
Energiebilanz
0
The limited efficiency of the Production
of Power Generated Fuels (PtX) can
result in a very high Electricity Demand.
Power generated Fuels can only be
produced in Germany to a small extent.
The major share will have to be
imported.
The systematic coupling of the
Electricity and Transport Sector are
essential.
For Discussion: PtX should only be used
where we have no other (more efficient
choices).
2050
Transport Day 2016 | 13.11.2016
6
Thank you very much for your attention!
Comments or Questions? – Please do not hesitate
to contact me:
[email protected]
Anna-Louisa-Karsch Str. 2 | D-10178 Berlin
T +49 (0)30 700 1435 300 | F +49 (0)30 700 1435 129
M [email protected]
Agora Verkehrswende is a joint initiative of Stiftung Mercator
Foundation and the European Climate Foundation (ECF).