Public Transport in SEQ Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queensland public transport infrastructure January 2012 A research report by GHD for the Council of Mayors (SEQ) GHD was commissioned by the Council of Mayors (SEQ) to provide advice on innovative and value for money options for investment in the public transport network in South East Queensland (SEQ). A key challenge for the investment program for public transport infrastructure in SEQ is how to meet the needs of a growing region within the nancially constrained scal environment now faced by all levels of government. A key concern is whether the funds exist to proceed with the State Government’s iconic $7700M Cross River Rail project. Some SEQ Councils are concerned that funding the project may delay other important projects in the region, while failure to deliver the project may stymie growth of the regional rail network. For these reasons, GHD was asked to consider whether the objectives of the Cross River Rail project can be met in a more cost effective way. The State Government has invested an average of about $1500M annually over the last four years on public transport infrastructure. GHD was asked to consider what could be delivered if expenditure was maintained at around that level over the next decade, having regard to the priorities in the Queensland Infrastructure Plan and the priorities identi ed by the Council of Mayors (SEQ). This report not only develops a list of priority projects, but proposes a new vision for SEQ Public Transport that puts the commuter at the heart of the system. It is being released to encourage public discussion about options for investing in public transport infrastructure across SEQ. The report does not represent an endorsed policy position of the Council of Mayors (SEQ), which will not consider the report and public reactions to it until after the 2012 local government elections. The Council of Mayors (SEQ) will consider all options in developing its future input into the next iteration of the Queensland Infrastructure Plan. The Council of Mayors (SEQ) looks forward to further developing a constructive working partnership with the Queensland Government on planning for the infrastructure that SEQ will need over the next decade to maximise the liveability, sustainability and productivity of this great region. Contents 06 40 Executive Summary On the Main Stage 15 40 page What Needs to be Delivered in the Next Five to Ten Years? Financing the Plan 42 page Introduction 16 Introducing Competitive Tension into the System State of Play Current Public Transport Proposals Major Problems 16 page The Opporunity 20 page Affordable, Timely and Innovative Solutions The Cleveland Solution 22 page 24 page Projects Beyond 2022 39 page 19 page 46 Conclusion 45 page Photo: Brisbane Marketing In many ways, South East Queensland is at the cross roads as policy makers face the challenge of providing the public transport facilities needed to underpin the region’s population growth, productivity and maintain our lifestyle and standard of living in a contracting scal environment. 6 The current scal and planning environments are uncertain Uncertain Planning Environment • The current planning environment is uncertain: • The scal positions of the State and Commonwealth Governments are extremely tight – the ability of the public sector to make large investments in capital projects has been greatly • diminished. • The private sector has little appetite to take on patronage risk for transport projects – the private sector is just not willing to invest through traditional PPP models, particularly in public transport projects. • • Patronage has generally increased and is expected to continue to grow – this is placing pressure on services and reliability. • The costs (subsidy) to deliver public transport services has been steadily increasing – in the order of • $550M in 2007/2008 to approximately $700M in 2013/2014. Critical bottlenecks (such as the Merivale Bridge) are strangling the network – the additions of new branch lines to the SEQ network effectively means train paths compete for track in the congested CBD core which progressively dilutes the level of service in outer networks. It seems increasingly unlikely that the current Cross River Rail proposal can be afforded in the current scal environment – Cross River Rail can address many of the network connectivity issues and bottlenecks in the core but the solution is expensive and currently unfunded. The sheer scale of the Cross River Rail investment may also act to ‘crowd out’ other projects needed across South East Queensland as funds become increasingly scarce While rail is described as the ‘backbone’ of future public transport infrastructure, buses carry twice as many passengers as trains and a balanced infrastructure plan needs to include all modes of transport. GHD’s Commission Where are the problems? In recognising that policy makers are at the cross roads and face several critical decisions, the Council of Mayors, South East Queensland (COMSEQ) has commissioned GHD to investigate innovative and value for money options for investment in the public transport network in SEQ. GHD’s approach has been to answer ve basic questions: 1. What is the current state of play and priorities for public transport capital expenditure? 2. Where are the major problems? 3. What does the commuter want from the public transport network in SEQ? 4. What needs to be delivered in the next ve and ten years and what can we afford? 5. Are there innovative and value for money approaches to nancing and delivering priorities and delivering what the commuter wants? While vast improvements to the public transport network have been made over the last decade, several critical problems remain: • Servicing areas in the outer network where there are low urban densities – the busway system has been a very effective strategy to address this issue but it is becoming a victim of its own success as inner city connections congest in peak hours. • The inner city rail “core” is at capacity and as new branch and spur lines are introduced, service levels and frequency in the wider network are being progressively diluted. • The demand for public transport is increasing and the availability of funds to service that demand is constrained by a tight scal environment. • There is also a nagging issue of the con ict between Citytrain services and freight movements to the Port of Brisbane and across the CBD. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 7 South East Queenslanders want higher frequency services What does the commuter actually want? In framing our report and recommendations, GHD has sought to address the key question – what do SEQ commuters (and tax payers) really want? In this regard, South East Queenslanders are no different to other urban commuters. They want: • Enhanced performance and service reliability • Increased service quality and frequency • Better use of assets and increases in productivity • Cost reductions per passenger journey • Better connectivity and opportunities to seamlessly transfer to different modes. 8 To sum it up: • South East Queensland commuters want increased service quality, reliability and greater frequency and connectivity – “no timetables – just turn up and go”. • South East Queenslander taxpayers want better value for money solutions. These practical desires of SEQ residents are consistent with the Council of Mayors. COMSEQ wants a public transport system that is an engine for regional economic growth, but also one that is greener and safer and improves quality of life in our communities across the whole of our region. GHD recommends a new vision for SEQ public transport that puts the commuter rst: The public transport system for SEQ will be characterised by high frequency peak services, off peak services that respond to demand, seamless interchanges, real time passenger information systems, value for money, effective delivery and a focus on customer service that is second to none. Developing Value for Money Solutions When developing its recommendations, GHD has proposed both a broad philosophical change and several pragmatic and value for money alternatives. This philosophical approach and the value for money alternatives are supported by assessing the role of: • Different and new technologies • Innovative nancing • Introduction of new operators into the system • System integration. A Change in Philosophy – Moving to a truly integrated network The great urban rail (and public transport) systems of the world (both large and medium sized cities) are integrated networks that adapt various modes of transport for the function required (and what the commuter needs). They are true networks of independent lines integrating with each other through common nodes, where passengers change to other lines. From the users’ perspective, they function effectively as one integrated system regardless of vehicle type, particular technology and mode. In Australia, our public transport systems – particularly rail – have evolved from CBD based radial systems progressively extending branch lines into new suburbs from the core. In SEQ’s radial network, each new branch line effectively adds another line through the central core and can only be accommodated by sharing existing stations and track or by building new infrastructure. The Existing Rail Network Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 9 The Cleveland Solution Transitioning the existing radial system to an integrated network The “Cleveland Solution” removes the Cleveland Line services from the Merivale Bridge (almost 50% of its current demand) by constructing a new rail line from the Park Road Station to Roma Street Station, via a tunnel to Woolloongabba, then a new bridge over the river beside (and imitating) the Captain Cook Bridge and Riverside Expressway, and then via a tunnel under Herschel Street to a new underground platform beneath Roma Street Station. New underground stations would be provided at Park Road, Woolloongabba and Roma Street, with two new elevated stations at Gardens Point (QUT) and Queen The First Step – the Street. “Cleveland Solution” After Roma Street Station, The “Cleveland Solution” the proposal would then run involves fast tracking of a on surface up the Exhibition “value for money” option to Line corridor, with a new address inner city rail Exhibition Station and a new capacity and transition from a Bowen Hills (West) Station “radial” to an “integrated” before joining into the Ferny system at a cost of $2500M Grove Line at Breakfast as opposed to the $7700M Creek. total estimate for Cross River The Light Metro operation on Rail. the Cleveland Line will include the duplication of the track from Manly to Cleveland. The Light Metro will also be segregated from freight movements to the Port of Brisbane and an additional freight line passing loop will be provided at Norman Park. As the city grows, the solutions become very expensive – hence the $7700M1 cost of the current Cross River Rail proposal. GHD argues that SEQ can continue to compound the central core capacity problem with more branch lines and expensive core enhancements, or we can transition the existing radial system to an integrated network. The rst step to achieve this could be to extract some lines from the core and reintroduce them as independent lines crossing the core – this is the basis of the “Cleveland Solution”. 10 In essence, by extracting the Cleveland, Ferny Grove and Doomben lines from the core: • Nearly half of the capacity of train paths on Merivale Bridge become available at about one-third of the current Cross River Rail cost • Platform and track space through the central core is released • A real opportunity to inject innovation, private investment, competition and importantly, value for money into the system, is facilitated • A higher frequency service is achieved • Citytrain rolling stock is released to the wider network. Underpinning the “Cleveland Solution” is innovative nancing, new technology and potential entry of a new operator. Cross River Rail1: Of ce of the Infrastructure Coordinator, Commonwealth of Australia, April 2011 for the 2011 Infrastructure Priority List. Value for money, innovative solutions What role can new technology play? Introducing Light Metro technology into the SEQ rail network provides a range of advantages for lines not carrying freight, including: • Higher frequency of services • Far greater operational exibility • Improved vehicle performance • Lower capital and operational costs • Opportunity to introduce a new operator and competitive tension into the system. Light Metro technology is used extensively in mid-sized European cities such as Frankfurt, Lisbon and Vienna and is ideally suited to the steeper grades and tighter curves of the “Cleveland Solution”. Is there a role for private nance? The reality is the current scal environment prevents the funding of “mega projects” such as Cross River Rail – there is simply no public funding available for a project of this scale. The project is currently unfunded. There is also empirical evidence over many years of consistent cost overruns in “mega projects” such as Cross River Rail. The key nding of the Mott MacDonald Report (2002), Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK, HM Treasury, London, National Audit Of ce was: “high levels of optimism in project estimates arising from underestimating project costs and duration or overestimating project bene ts”. In other words “mega projects” will almost inevitably experience a budget blowout. There is also no appetite for a traditional PPP for a project of this scale where capital costs are high, patronage risk would be transferred to the private sector, and the new infrastructure would form part of the Queensland Rail passenger network. “Availability contract PPPs” may offer a mechanism to fund “value for money” major public transport projects, where contractors and operators are paid on the basis of the time the asset is made available to the user. The model is reasonably common in social infrastructure but emerging in public transport across several jurisdictions, including for the Gold Coast Rapid Transit System. Adopting an Availability PPP may also enable accessing of funds from a wider range of sources – bonds, superannuation funds etc – particularly where incentives are used and a long contract life is adopted (e.g. 20+ years). What about the entry of a new operator? As well as being integrated networks combining various modes of transport for the function required (and what the commuter needs), a number of the great urban public transport systems have more than one operator on their network. It could be argued that Queensland Rail’s monopoly sti es innovation. The subsidy to operate the service is increasing from (in the order of) $550M in 2007/8 to approximately $700M in 2013/14. Furthermore, empirical research and practical experience show multiple operators within an integrated system: • Introduces “competitive tension” to the network • Drives innovation • Can reduce the cost per passenger journey. Importantly, the competition is driven by what the commuter wants due to the nature of the availability contracts developed. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 11 Seeking ways to reduce car dependency across SEQ The Second Step – Beyond the “Cleveland Solution”, what are the key priorities? As inner city rail capacity is so critical to the ef ciency and effectiveness of the entire network – a problem that won’t go away – a key aspect of GHD’s recommendations centre around investment of $2500M on the “Cleveland Solution”. This is a priority project to be delivered over the next 5 years as the demand over the Merivale Bridge exceeds its capacity. Over the last four years the Queensland Government has invested around $1500M per year in public transport. This report argues the Queensland Government needs to continue to invest at the same level ($1500M per year) to build the public transport network that can deliver the services required to meet the mode share targets. Based on our assumption of $7500M to be expended on average over a ve year period, the second stage of GHD’s analysis involved assessing and recommending a range of other priority projects valued at $5000M over the next ve years. 12 The legislative frameworks are in place to enable Local Government to accumulate funds which can be hypothecated to nominated public transport infrastructure and services. Such projects would need to be subject to needs assessment, rigorous cost bene t analysis and be clearly articulated in local and regional plans to ensure appropriate use of monies. Direct local government contributions towards public transport could aid in funding needed infrastructure and/or services in a timelier manner than would otherwise be the case. Several councils are already How can Local making substantial Government make a contributions to public contribution? transport, from dedicated Making a contribution to the transport levies (e.g. GCCC, provision of public transport SCRC) or direct from rates infrastructure and services ts (e.g. BCC, MBRC). well with local government. Having a stake-in-the-game Local overnment is well will encourage local placed to de ne and work with major providers and the government to take a more active role in community State in developing promotion and in seeking appropriate services that ways to reduce car deliver locally and integrate dependency across SEQ. well across jurisdictions. It also gives local government a more attractive “seat at the table” when determining strategic priorities - this would be a positive step forward. GHD has also identi ed priorities for the 6-10 year horizon valued at an additional $7500M. Several of these projects are current commitments but GHD has also assessed some of the current proposals and recommended revised scope and lower cost (value for money) solutions. Several new projects have also been included where there is a demonstrated need and value for money is achieved. In tight scal times, value for money solutions, based on commuter needs – should be the underlying objective. Recommended Investment Program Recommended Investment Program After assessing other project options, GHD recommends the following project priorities and their estimated capital expenditure for the next ve years, set out in Tables 01 and 02. Table 01: Short Term Years 1 - 5 Table 02: Short Term Years 6 - 10 Project Priorities Capital Expenditure (EST) Project Priorities Capital Expenditure (EST) Sunshine Coast Connect $420M Eastern Bus Priority - Bus lanes Carindale to Capalaba $160M Inner City Rail (The Cleveland Solution) $2500M Eastern Busway 2A $25M New Citytrain Stabling Depot at Clapham $100M Freight Line Improvements $575M Rail - Spring eld to Redbank Plains Gold Coast Bus Lanes $30M Gold Coast Rapid - Broadbeach to Parkwood $280M Rail - Comera to Helensvale $430M Rail - Kuraby to Kingston and Loganlea $230M Eliminate Open Level Crossings $400M New passenger rail stock $300M Rail - Lawnton to Petrie third rail track $200M Rail - Beerburrum to Landsborough $470M Moreton Bay Rail Link (MBRL) $253M CBD Bus Infrastructure Capacity Program $25M Eastern Busway - Main Ave to Bennetts Rd $300M Project Priorities Capital Expenditure (EST) New passenger rail stock $500M Gold Coast Rapid - to Helensvale $850M South East Busway to Springwood $420M $200M CBD Bus Infrastructure Capacity Program $1000M Northern Busway - Sadlier St to Rode Rd $60M Northern Busway - Chermside to Aspley $600M Northern Bus Priority - Rode Rd to Chermside $50M Rail - Varsity to Elanora $1400M Rail - Richlands to Spring eld $280M Sunshine Coast Light Rail (planning and property) $600M Rail - Kepera to Ferny Grove $29M Rail - Acacia Ridge to Flagstone $300M Translink Station Upgrades $161M Eliminate Open Level Crossings $500M Bus Priority Toowoomba $20M Rail - Redbank to Ripley $450M Bus Priority $350M Park n’ Ride $350M Brisbane Metro (planning & property) $200M Public Transport 5 Year Priority Program = $7,498M Public Transport 6 to 10 Year Priority Program = $7,520M Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 13 Short, medium and long term solutions GHD recommends the following projects to be considered in the medium term, beyond the next 10 years: Table 03: Medium Term Priorities Projects Beyond Ten Years South East Busway (Springwood to Loganholme) Rail - Elanora to Coolangatta Sunshine Coast Light Rail Future Stages Rail - Redbank Plains to Ipswich Rail - Acacia Ridge to Flagstone (future stages) Gold Coast Rapid Transit (future stages) Rail - Gowrie to Grandchester (future stages) Brisbane Metro Northern Busway (future stages) Bus Priority and Park n’ Ride Eastern Busway Future Stages Redland Bus Priority 14 Introduction A new vision for SEQ public transport that puts the commuter rst In recognising that policy makers are at the cross roads and face several critical decisions, the Council of Mayors, South East Queensland (COMSEQ) has commissioned GHD to investigate innovative and value for money options for investment in the public transport network in SEQ. GHD’s analysis and • Which projects are recommendations are based relevant to the commuter on some key assumptions needs over the next 5 and and baseline criteria: 10 years? • On average, $1500M is • Are the current projects spent on capital relevant to these needs expenditure for public and do they deliver a transport in SEQ per timely solution to the annum in recent years – problem they are seeking this represents up to to address? $7500M over 5 years. • Are the proposals Budget papers indicate affordable in the current that over the last 4 years scal environment? Queensland has invested; • Do the projects and proposals represent value - 2008/09, $1503M for money investment of 2009/10, $1427M GHD’s approach has been to the public transport answer ve basic questions: - 2010/11, $1605M dollar? 1. What is the current state - 2011/12, $1112M. The result is not only a list of of play and priorities for priority projects across the • In consultation with public transport capital region but a new vision for COMSEQ, GHD has expenditure? identi ed public transport SEQ public transport that puts the commuter at the 2. Where are the major projects that are problems? considered key to solving heart of the system. the region’s future public 3. What does the commuter transport needs. want from the public transport network in SEQ? • GHD has identi ed projects and assessed 4. What needs to be whether they meet the delivered in the next ve region’s needs and offer a and ten years and what value proposition for the can we afford? taxpayer. 5. Are there innovative and In considering the critical value for money problems to be addressed, approaches to nancing GHD then assessed and and delivering priorities prioritised projects and and are they delivering proposals on the basis of what the commuter answering these questions: wants? Photo: Adelaide Street, Brisbane (Brisbane Marketing) Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 15 Current Public Tranport Proposals A new vision for SEQ public transport that puts the commuter at the heart of the system 16 To identify the range of projects to be assessed in this report, GHD identi ed priorities and proposals for public transport infrastructure in South East Queensland documented in several publications including: • 2011 Queensland Budget papers • Queensland Infrastructure Plan 2011 (QIP) • Various SEQIP and QIP publications over recent years • Council of Mayors (SEQ) Getting SEQ Moving 2011-12 Infrastructure Priorities. Which projects are relevant to the commuter... Table 04: Signi cant Public Transport Projects (with published estimates) The 2011 Budget listed public transport projects totalling $3725M over 3 years. The projects are either being completed or committed by virtue of the funding, and consequently are not generally new initiatives, but prior commitments. In consultation with COMSEQ, GHD identi ed two categories of projects and proposals: • Signi cant Public Transport Projects – major public transport projects speci cally identi ed in planning documents, accompanied with cost estimates • Allied Public Transport Projects – projects identi ed as components of major projects, or other signi cant developments. A number of Signi cant Public Transport Projects (with capital expenditure estimates) has also been identi ed in published planning documents, such as QIP (see Table 04). These projects vary from reasonably current to long term aspirational projects beyond the 5 to 10 year horizon of this study. However, they were examined for relevance to the existing public transport needs. Some of these projects could form the early stage of the ultimate con guration (e.g. Coast Connect could be an early form of CAMCOS). A number of other Allied Public Transport Projects has also emerged as components of the major initiatives such as Cross River Rail, or other signi cant developments (see Table 05). When we take into account these two categories of projects, there are currently almost 30 budgeted, signi cant and allied projects listed at a value of just over $35000M that are considered priorities to varying degrees. The Signi cant Public Transport Projects and Allied Public Transport Projects became the target projects for this study. GHD reviewed those projects and recommended priority projects over two ve year timeframes: • 2012 – 2017 • 2017 – 2022. Signi cant Public Transport Projects Capital Expenditure (EST) Project Priorities CONT. Capital Expenditure (EST) Moreton Bay Rail Link $1147M Sunshine Coast Connect $420M New passenger rail stock (new generation program) $1214M Rail - Gowrie to Grandchester rail line $1680M Rail - Coomera to Helensvale $432M Northern Busway - Future Stages (planning) $29M Rail - Varsity to Elanora $1391M New Stabling Facilities (planning) $35M Rail - Elanora to Coolangatta $840M Rail - Kuraby to Kingston and Loganlea $230M Rail - Lawnton to Petrie third rail track $114M Gold Coast Rapid Transit - future stages $2160M South East Busway (Eight Mile Plains to Springwood) $276M Redland Bus Priority Signi cant Public Transport Projects = $30,641M Table 05: Allied Public Transport Projects Project Priorities Capital Expenditure (EST) Rail - New Citytain Stabling Depot at Clapham $100M $156M Freight Line improvements (coal line grade separations $2000M CBD Bus Infrastructure capacity program $500M Gold Coast Bus Lanes $31M Eastern Busway Future Stages $3917M Rail - Acacia Ridge to Flagstone $900M Inner City Rail (Cross River Rail) $7700M Rail - Spring eld to Redbank Plains $200M Rail - Ipswich to Spring eld $1800M Rail - Redbank Plains to Ripley $400M Rail - Beerburrum to Landsborough $480M Eliminate Open Level Crossings $770M Rail - Landborough to Nambour $2160M Cross RIver Rail (Stage 2 - Inner City Metro) Uncosted Rail - CAMCOS $3960M Allied Public Transport Projects = $4,401M Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 17 18 The Major Problems The public transport system primarily consists of the rail and bus infrastructure that serves South East Queensland (SEQ). This infrastructure has historically evolved to serve the low urban densities that are typical of the suburban developments in SEQ. In the past, this model of low density suburbs suited the high mobility offered by the motor car, but as traf c congestion on the road network grew with Brisbane’s population, more pressure has been placed on public transport services to offer a viable alternative for the movement of people. Over the last decade, the Queensland Government has invested heavily in the express busway system as a strategy to provide an ef cient public transport service to the low densities of the dormitory suburbs. This strategy has been so successful that the busway system is now experiencing signi cant congestion and further investment is required to fund a number of proposals to solve these problems. In particular, the inner city sections of the South East Busway are under increasing pressure and the Victoria Bridge and Adelaide Streets link, for example, are frequently experiencing signi cant bus congestion during peak periods. The Brisbane City Council has commissioned a $2M feasibility study on building a ‘green bridge’ for buses from the Busway to connect to a tunnel under Adelaide Street, effectively extending the Busway right through the city. This transformational project is projected to cost upwards of $2000M. The rail system has evolved over a much longer period of time and tends to address the longer journeys across the urban area. Its catchments are limited by the geographic location of those railway lines and the modes that feed its stations. In response to the increasing congestion in the transport system, urban densities are increasing around railway stations, improved feeder services and park and ride facilities and new spur lines are generating the demand for additional rail services. Several critical problems remain despite vast improvements to the network As the road system becomes congested, more people are travelling the longer distances to the city on the Gold Coast Line, the Caboolture Line and Ipswich Line. Services to the extremities of these lines are being extended and expanded to meet this demand. The inner city rail “core”, between Roma Street Station and Bowen Hills Station, is now approaching capacity with the growth in extremities of the rail network. The Cross River Rail (CRR) project was conceived to solve this problem. CRR was also an opportunity to address the con ict between the Citytrain services and the freight movements to the Port of Brisbane and across the city. Recent trends would also indicate the demand for investment in public transport is increasing and the availability of funds to service that demand is now being constrained by a restrained scal environment. It has become apparent that the public transport dollar needs to be stretched further through prudent project scoping to solve the immediate problems in the system. So while vast improvements to the public transport network have been made over the last decade, several critical problems remain: • Servicing areas in the outer network where there are low urban densities – the busway system has been a very effective strategy to address this issue but it is becoming a victim of its own success as inner city connections congest in peak hours. • The inner city rail “core” is at capacity and as new branch and spur lines are introduced, service levels Photo: Harrison Saragossi and frequency in the wider network are being progressively diluted. • The demand for public transport is increasing as the population grows and the cost and congestion of the private alternative increases • There is also a nagging issue of the con ict between Citytrain services and freight movements to the Port of Brisbane and across the CBD • Investment in public transport will be constrained by the availability of funds. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 19 The Opportunity The State Government’s recently released Integrated Regional Transport Plan for SEQ “Connecting SEQ 2031” includes an ambitious target of increasing the modal share of regional daily trips taken on public transport from 7% (2006) to 14% (2031). Given population growth, that would represent a trebling of total trips by public transport from 652,000 trips per day to 2 million trips per day. This will require a substantial investment in public transport infrastructure and also operating expenses. 20 To put that into scale, the system accommodated an extra 56 million passengers in 2009-10 compared to 2003-4. It will need to accommodate an extra 276 million passengers by 2031 to meet the State Government’s targets. This ambitious target is achievable – in the six years to 2009-10, public transport patronage grew by 47%, three times faster than population growth. This has been on the back of a infrastructure program to improve the network services of busways and rail improvements. However, failure to make this investment will result in a seriously congested road network which is already costing the region around $3000M a year in lost productivity. Table 06: Annual public transport passengers 2003-04 to 2009-10 Source: Translink Transit Authority public transport patronage data. Note: Excludes passenger boardings on ferry services. Substantial investment into public transport needs to occur right across the region Substantial investment into public transport needs to occur right across the region as demonstrated by the public transport daily trip targets by local government area (LGA) in Connecting SEQ 2031 shown in Table 07. These targets highlight the challenge not just of commuting from green eld areas in the outer suburbs, but also the need to signi cantly increase public transport modal shares in Brisbane and Gold Coast as the population density of these cities increase. Over the past four years, the State Government has invested around $1500M a year into public transport infrastructure in SEQ, although investment agged a little this year: • 2008-09 ($1503M) • 2009-10 ($1427M) • 2010-11 ($1605M) • 2011-12 ($1112M) This report argues that, notwithstanding its nancial constraints, the State needs to continue to spend at around the same level ($1500M a year) to build the network that can deliver the services needed to meet the modal share target. It is a huge challenge, but it is also a huge opportunity for SEQ. SEQ residents have shown that if public transport is ef cient, affordable and reliable, they will embrace public transport. This behavioural change will need to be promoted over the next two decades if our region is to accommodate projected population growth without compromising productivity, liveability or sustainability. Table 07: 2031 Mode Share Targets by Local Government Area Local Government Area (LGA) 2006 Modal Share (%) 2031 Target Modal Share (%) Target Increase Brisbane 360,000 10.3% 860,000 20% 500,000 Ipswich 33,000 6.5% 185,000 12% 152,000 Moreton Bay 72,000 6.2% 190,000 11% 118,000 Logan 50,000 5.5% 140,000 10% 90,000 Redland 25,000 5.7% 65,000 10% 40,000 Gold Coast 72,000 4.4% 400,000 15% 328,000 Sunshine Coast 40,000 3.6% 175,000 10% 135,000 (Source: Budget papers) Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 21 Affordable, Timely and Innovative Solutions In considering the critical problems to be addressed, GHD assessed and prioritised projects and proposals on the basis of answering these questions: • Which projects are relevant to the commuter needs over the next ve and ten years? • Are the current projects relevant to these needs and do they deliver a timely solution to the problem they are seeking to address? • Are the proposals affordable in the current scal environment? • Can they be staged to reduce the initial investment? • Do the projects and proposals represent value for money investment of the public transport dollar? The key questions are: • Where do South East Queenslanders get the best value from dollars spent? • Are we extracting maximum value for users from our systems and the funds allocated? 22 A number of projects (listed in Listed projects considered necessary and appropriate for 2012-2017 year program are: Budget 2011, QIP) are considered to be timely and valuable investments: Table 08: Project Priorities 2012-2017 year Program Listed projects considered necessary and appropriate for 2017 - 2022 year Program are: Table 09: Project Priorities 2017-2022 year Program Project Priorities 1-5 year program Capital Expenditure (EST) Project Priorities 6-10 year program Capital Expenditure (EST) Moreton Bay Rail Link (MBRL) $1147M Gold Coast Rapid Transit (Stage 2) $850M New Citytrain Stabling Depot at Clapham $100M $276M Gold Coast Bus Lanes $30M South East Busway (Eight Mile Plains to Springwood) Rail - Coomera to Helensvale $432M Rail - Ripley to Spring eld $650M Rail - Kuraby to Kingston and Loganlea $230M Rail - Varsity to Elanora $1400M Eliminate Open Level Crossings (over 10 years) $770M Redland Bus Priority $156M Sunshine Coast Connect $420M Rail - Lawnton to Petrie third rail track $200M Listed projects considered to be beyond the 10 year Program are: Rail - Beerburrum to Landsborough $470M Table 10: Projects beyond the 10 year Program Translink Station Upgrades $161M Rail - Richlands to Spring eld $270M Projects beyond the 5 - 10 year Horizon Capital Expenditure (EST) Rail - CAMCOS $3960M Rail - Elanora to Coolangatta $840M South East Busway (Springwood to Loganholme) $600M Rail - Ipswich to Ripley $1150M How do Queenslanders get the biggest bang for their buck? Project Proposals to be Reviewed As well as some new project Table 11: Signi cant Public Transport Projects proposals, several projects Capital provide an opportunity to Signi cant Public Transport Projects Expenditure review the scope, reduce (EST) cost and hence improve the value of the investment. Cross River Rail (CRR) $7700M These projects to be reviewed, and the published Eastern Busway Future Stages $3917M estimated cost, are: Northern Busway Future Stages (part of) $620M CBD Bus Infrastructure capacity program $500M Table 12: Allied Public Transport Projects Allied Public Transport Projects Capital Expenditure (EST) Rail - New City Train Stabling Depot at Clapham $100M Freight Line Improvements $2000M Rail - Acacia Ridge to Flagstone $900M Cross City Metro $6000M Photo: Victoria Bridge buses Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 23 Signi cant Projects for Review Cross River Rail or The Cleveland Solution The inner city rail network is operating close to capacity with the city platforms from Roma Street Station to Bowen Hills experiencing high utilisation and effectively no room for expansion. In the morning peak hour, the Merivale Bridge over the Brisbane River currently operates 19 services on the Gold Coast (4), Beenleigh (7) and Cleveland (8) Lines. At 3 minute headways the single northbound track over the bridge is considered to have a theoretical capacity for 20 train paths in the morning peak hour. This capacity restriction is con rmed by the delays regularly experienced by these services during the morning peak. The available capacity on this inner city network is dominated by the Citytrain services in the peak hours, signi cantly impairing the ability to operate reliable freight services across the city or to the Port of Brisbane. Consequently, the Inner City Rail Capacity project was developed and the Cross River Rail proposal was identi ed to construct two new tracks in tunnel from Yeerongpilly in the south to north of Bowen Hills. 24 The project includes four new underground stations at Boggo Road, Woolloongabba, Albert Street and Roma Street and two new surface stations at Yeerongpilly and the Exhibition. The project also includes a new Citytrain stabling facility at Clapham, adjacent to Moorooka. While the Cross River Rail project is a visionary solution to the capacity problems of inner city rail network, the $7700M estimated cost of the proposal will seriously test the borrowing capacity of most governments and would only attract very modest private capital. A more affordable solution appears to be warranted. Financing a project of this scale would necessarily lead to delays in delivery of other urgently needed public transport infrastructure across the rest of the SEQ network. The “Cleveland Solution” removes the Cleveland Line services from the Merivale Bridge by constructing a new rail line from the Park Road Station to Roma Street Station, via a tunnel to Woolloongabba, then a new bridge over the river beside (and imitating) the Captain Cook Bridge and Riverside Expressway, and then via a tunnel beneath Herschel Street to a new underground platform under the Roma Street Station. New underground stations would be provided at Park Road and Woolloongabba, and elevated stations at Gardens Point (QUT) and/or Queen Street. After Roma Street Station the proposal would then run on surface up the Exhibition Line corridor, with a new Exhibition Station and a new Bowen Hills (West) Station before joining into the Ferny Grove Line at Breakfast Creek. This proposal would remove both the Cleveland Line and the Ferny Grove Line from the congested rail network core between Bowen Hills and Roma St (but would interchange with the northern line at those two stations). Critically, the proposal releases the Cleveland Line train paths (8 in peak hour) across the Merivale Bridge, providing an immediate capacity gain of over 70% for growth on the Beenleigh and Gold Coast Lines. While Cross River Rail is a visionary solution, a more affordable solution is needed The “Cleveland Solution” is made possible by introducing Light Metro rolling stock that can negotiate the tighter corners and steeper grades of the proposed alignment between Park Road and Roma St Stations. Light Metro rolling stock has a capacity of approximately 600 passengers per train and would operate at 3 to 5 minute headways to service the demand on the Cleveland Line. Consequently, the Cleveland and Ferny Grove Lines would enjoy a much more frequent service. The cost of the proposal, including a new eet of rolling stock, is estimated to be $2500M. It would release 24 existing 6 car electric multiple unit (EMU) sets back to the Citytrain network at an estimated value of $240M. A major project such as the “Cleveland Solution” (or the Cross River Rail) will take several years to deliver, e.g. 4 years to 2016, and over the next few years rail passengers on the three lines entering the city over the Merivale Bridge will continue to experience increasing congestion and signi cant delay. Consideration needs to be given to minor technical works and rescheduling of services to mitigate these delays before the “Cleveland Solution” is affected. Duplication of the Ferny Grove Line, from Keperra to Ferny Grove was funded in Budget 2011-12 for $29M. The CRR project was originally planned to meet the Merivale Bridge capacity crisis in 2016, but with limited funding its completion has now been delayed until 2020. The Clevelend Solution is more affordable, easier to fund through an Availability PPP and could be delivered to meet the 2016 deadline. The Light Metro operation on the Cleveland Line will include the duplication of the track from Manly to Cleveland. The Light Metro will also be segregated from freight movements to the Port of Brisbane and an additional freight line passing loop will be provided at Norman Park. A visionary approach – moving to an integrated network – Stage 2. Extracting the Cleveland/ Ferny Grove and Doomben lines from the core. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 25 Photo: Light Metro, Paris 26 The Cleveland Solution - Myths and Facts MYTHS FACTS Cross River Rail addresses the need for additional inner city capacity to support northern corridor rail services soon after 2016 – the Cleveland Solution doesn’t address this issue. The Cleveland Solution addresses this issue by running both the Cleveland and Ferny Grove lines as a pair down the Exhibition Line, releasing capacity on the northern and southern corridors. The Cleveland Solution is not consistent with Connecting SEQ 2031 – An Integrated Transport Plan for SEQ which requires the network to meet future transport needs in the short and long terms. The Cleveland Solution addresses short, medium and long term requirements to meet future transport needs by transitioning the rail network from a radial to a fully integrated system which is consistent with the objectives of Connecting SEQ 2031 – An Integrated Transport Plan for SEQ. However, Connecting SEQ is totally dependent on the timely funding and delivery of Cross River Rail. The Cleveland Solution would inevitably lead to a reduction in capacity on the Cleveland Line as light rail carries less passengers than heavy rail EMUs. EMU capacity on the Cleveland Line could run at 20 trains per hour or 15000 people per hour to match its predicted growth of 4% pa. Light metro 3 car trains can carry an equivalent capacity to EMU sets but at a far greater frequency because of reduced headways. Light rail rolling stock can’t operate at the same speeds as heavy rail resulting in increased transit times for commuters. The proposed rolling stock is project speci c light metro rolling stock which can operate at 80kmh, particularly with higher oors and larger wheels. This is the same speed as heavy rail travels on the Cleveland Line. The proposed alignment would remove direct services from Cleveland to key inner city areas of South Brisbane. The Cleveland Solution does not run directly through South Brisbane. However, major interchanges at Park Road, Roma Street and Bowen Hills will provide direct access to the heavy rail network as well as key centres such as the University of Queensland. Commuters interchanging at Park Road and Bowen Hills may not be able to transfer to the heavy rail network on the north / south corridor as trains maybe full during peak hour. The main interchange will always be Roma Street but as the Cleveland Solution allows almost 50% extra capacity across Merivale Bridge, far higher frequency services should be able to be achieved on the north / south corridor and the Gold Coast / Beenleigh lines in particular. Cross River Rail provides a new station at Albert Street whereas the Cleveland Solution only provides new stations on the river precinct. The Cleveland Solution provides much needed additional access for students at QUT and the growing river precinct. An Albert Street station can be included in the scheme at a higher cost. However, the Portside to Indooroopilly driverless metro proposed for 2017 – 2022 provides for additional CBD underground stations. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 27 The future of the SEQ public transport system Eastern Busway Future Stages | Stage 2 Main Ave to Bennetts Rd The 1km Stage 1 of the Eastern Busway - Buranda to Main Avenue, Coorparoo, was recently completed at a cost of $466M. A section of this project known as 2A has been funded in the 2011-12 Budget and the $25M allocation has been included in the 2012-2017 Program. The next stage from Main Ave to Bennetts Road is understood to also be in tunnel at a cost of $690M. This cost for approximately 1.5 km of busway is considered extravagant given the congestion downstream in the busway network (discussed above) and the localised congestion on Old Cleveland Road. 28 It is understood that congestion on Old Cleveland Road is signi cant in peak periods but the discrete use of on road bus lanes (in lieu of a bus tunnel) and limited investment in bus stops (in lieu of a full bus station) may provide better value for money. The proposed solution includes the full bus station proposed for the Myer site, with grade separated access from Old Cleveland Road, and bus lanes on Old Cleveland Road at a more affordable cost of $300M. These bus lanes would be additional to existing traf c lanes and would involve some widening of the roadway and resumption of kerbside parking. The bus lanes from Carindale to Capalaba (including a direct access into the Carindale Centre) at an estimated cost of $160M are included in the ve year program. Northern Busway Future Stages | Stage 2 Sadlier St to Rode Rd The rst stage of the northern busway is being delivered with the Airport Link tollway to Kedron. It will access north onto Gympie Road at Sadlier Street. A study is currently developing the concept to extend the busway from Sadlier Street to Prince Charles Hospital via Rode Road and then to Braken Ridge via Chermside and Aspley. Sections of this busway are proposed to be in tunnel or involve acquiring property for a surface busway at signi cant cost. Airport Link is due to open to traf c in mid 2012 and is expected to increase traf c volumes on Gympie Road to super saturated levels. This environment will be inappropriate for buses accessing the northern busway along Gympie Road and it is unlikely that the major schemes being considered could be affected for several years. Consequently, as an alternative scheme, the rst section of the Northern Busway must facilitate the safe and expedient movement of buses along this section of Gympie Road and should be accelerated as a high priority capable of being implemented by mid 2012. The alternate proposal is to construct this section at surface level (and avoid tunnel sections) by widening Gympie Road locally to create a bus lane in each direction (in lieu of kerbside parking only). The work would include establishing major stops and other bus priority measures along Rode Road and Hamilton Road to Chermside. Bus priority should be provided at all con ict points with general traf c, including traf c signals as required. The estimated cost of work along Gympie Road is $60M, while additional bus priority measures on Rode Road and Hamilton Road are $50M. These bus lanes would be additional to existing traf c lanes and would involve some widening of the roadway and resumption of kerbside parking. The further extension of busway facilities including grade separated access to Chermside, and a busway to Aspley would be provided in the second ve years, 20172022 at a cost of $600M. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 29 South East Queenslanders want reliability and higher frequency services CBD Bus Infrastructure Capacity Program The popularity of the South East Busway into the city has resulted in congestion from the busway tunnel onto Melbourne Street, through the Cultural Centre Bus Station and over the Victoria Bridge into the CBD (note that some bus routes currently utilise the Captain Cook Bridge to ease congestion on the busway). Buses can also experience some delay as they pass through three sets of signalised intersections at the busway tunnel/Melbourne Street, Grey Street/ Melbourne Street and North Quay/William Street. The main delay, however, appears to be at the Cultural Centre Bus Station and can be random in nature. It is not uncommon for buses to experience long queues on the busway between Melbourne Street and South Bank Station heading towards the CBD (in morning peak hour) and from the Cultural Centre stop over the Victoria Bridge (in evening peak hour). 30 Understand the effectiveness of bus priority initiatives before committing to capital expenditure The Cultural Centre Bus Station has become the funnel for bus services crossing the Brisbane River to Southbank and West End. It accommodates more services than the bus stations at King George Square (KGS), Queen Street, Adelaide Street or Southbank Bus Station (that feed it). The introduction of the high frequency City Glider service to West End through the Cultural Centre Bus Station has increased the load on this bus station and. consequently, it now appears to be beyond is operational capacity. The current mode of operation at the Cultural Centre Bus Station directs arriving buses to the lead stop with follow up buses occupying available space on a random basis (as per Southbank Bus Station). This “free form” platform soon exhausts its capacity and bus queues build as buses wait for available kerb space. The high proportion of nonregular users (e.g. tourists) can impede the boarding process with driver ticketing also creating random events that throw the operation of the station, and its approaches, into congestion. Current public transport planning suggests that bus services will only increase within coming years with the development of the Eastern and Northern busways, so a viable solution to ease congestion is required. The problem appears to be a combination of factors that may not be solved through a single capital work investment, although planning is underway to develop a longer term solution, such as a dedicated river bus bridge ($500M) into an Adelaide Street tunnel ($1500M). The Brisbane City Council has commissioned a $2M feasibility study into an extension of the South East Busway into the city via a bridge parallel to Victoria Bridge and a tunnel under the length of Adelaide Street to Post Of ce Square. Such an ambitious project would be likely to cost in excess of $2000M. A cross river bridge (without a tunnel through the city) is included in the Queensland Infrastructure Plan costed at $500M. We have made provision for $1000M of expenditure to progress this project in the Program for 2017-2022. In the short term, operational modi cations could improve the ow of buses through this corridor. These modi cations could include: 1. Designate bus routes to speci c stops at the Cultural Centre Bus Station platform (e.g. King George Square) 2. Pre-sell tickets to non regular users with platform based ticket sales 3. Re-route the West End services (including the City Glider) around the Cultural Centre Bus Station, to new stops between Grey and Merivale Streets (estimated cost of $5M) 4. Grade separate the con ict point between general traf c on Melbourne Street and the busway tunnel exit (estimated cost of $20M). A $25M provision for point 3 and 4 above has a new bus bridge across the been included in the program for 2012-2017. Photo – The Go Card System (The Brisbane Times) Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 31 Buses and busways are ideal for low density areas Bus Priority/Park and Ride The Program includes investment for speci c elements of the Northern and Eastern Busways and the CBD Bus Capacity Program. Hence, complementary investment will need to be made for various bus priority improvements and park and ride facilities feeding the Busway system. The 2017-2022 Program includes $350M for bus priority and $350M for park and ride facilities. 32 In Toowoomba, the population is forecast to increase from 160,000 to 230,000 by 2031. Toowoomba acts as a focal point for interstate and intrastate freight movement, as three major highways converge in Toowoomba. As a result, Toowoomba streets carry a high concentration of commercial/ heavy vehicles and its central business district provides a highway function for heavy vehicle through traf c. The proposed Toowoomba Bypass will divert some of this commercial traf c around the city, but traf c on the city road network will continue to frustrate public transport services. A suite of bus priority facilities has been proposed to ensure public transport provides a viable option to Toowoomba residents. A $20M provision for bus priority facilities in Toowoomba has been included in the 2012-2017 Program. Allied Projects for Review Rail New City Train Stabling Depot at Clapham The Cross River Rail project included a new stabling facility at Clapham. The existing Mayne Stabling Yard has little opportunity for expansion and with the anticipated future growth in the Citytrain services a new stabling facility will be required. A stabling yard on the southern side of the city would be desirable and the facility proposed for the Cross River Rail project at Clapham is an appropriate investment. These stabling yards are estimated to cost $100M. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 33 Con icts between passenger and freight movements have to be xed Freight Line Improvements - coal line grade separations The Cross River Rail project included a tunnelled section from Yeerongpilly to Park Road to release surface track currently shared with the Gold Coast Line for freight movements across the city and to the Port of Brisbane. This section of tunnel is estimated to cost $2000M. The “Cleveland Solution” does not provide any additional capacity south of Park Road Station so an alternative needs to be considered. The rail corridor between Park Road and Yeerongpilly has three tracks, An Up and Down Track for the Beenleigh Line (and non-peak direction Gold Coast Line services) and a dual gauge line for the peak direction Gold Coast Line services and any freight or interstate passenger trains. These freight and passenger movements are generally prohibited during peak hours due to the dominance of the Citytrain services. Hence, there is a need for a fourth track to permit freight movements, especially to the Port of Brisbane, to operate independently from the Gold Coast Line. 34 The existing rail corridor is relatively narrow and a fourth track will require some property acquisition and engineering solutions to accommodate the fourth track. This proposal will also need to include the grade separation of a freight line into the Tennyson Line at Moorooka (for the long coal trains to the Port of Brisbane). In comparison to the $2000M tunnelled section of the Cross River Rail solution south of Brisbane River, the “engineered” fourth track at an estimated cost of $575M, appears to offer signi cant value in the current scal environment. This would free up the third track for additional public transport movements along the Gold Coast line and facilitate increased frequency of services. Is there a better way? Toowoomba Access The Cross River Rail improvements to resolve the con ict between public transport services and the freight line to the Port of Brisbane raises the associated issue of freight access down the range from Toowoomba. Public transport services between Brisbane and Toowoomba could bene t from a more modern and faster alignment of the rail line between Grandchester and Gowrie, particularly the range crossing. The twice weekly Westlander service currently takes over 4 hours to complete the trip. Regular Citytrain services terminate at Rosewood. The existing rail alignment from Gowrie to Grandchester is very slow and has been identi ed for realignment to improve freight access to Brisbane, particularly coal to the Port of Brisbane and is already running at capacity. As such the line will be unable to cope with expected expansion of the mining industry in the Surat Basin. The Gowrie to Grandchester rail realignment project involve several kilometres of tunnelling and is expensive, listed in the 2009 SEQIPP with an estimate of $1400M. The 2010 SEQIPP had a target completion timeline of 2026-31 for the project, although the 2011 QIP commits only to a Surat Basin rail corridor feasibility study to be conducted 20112013. While important to freight movements of mining and agricultural to the Port of Brisbane, its public transport bene ts are fairly minimal in the short or medium terms. As such, the rail project is beyond the scope of this report. The Council of Mayors (SEQ) current list of priority projects includes funding for a second range road crossing around Toowoomba which would reduce heavy freight movements through the Toowoomba CBD. The rail project would be a logical medium term complement to this urgent priority, and would be a key investment in the strategic freight network for the region. It is likely that substantial investment from the resources sector would be needed to fund the Gowrie to Grandchester project. Photo: Toowoomba Range Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 35 Servicing new growth in the Southern corridor Rail - Acacia Ridge to Flagstone There is increasing pressure for urban and light industrial development to occur in the southern corridor to Beaudesert. With signi cant urban development being considered from Parkinson to Boronia, Flagstone and Bromelton, there is an opportunity to utilise the existing standard gauge track to provide an embryonic passenger rail service from these developments to greater Brisbane. The proposal would be to construct island platform stations at Flagstone, Boronia and Parkinson and a new standard gauge platform at Salisbury. This infrastructure would facilitate a 15 minute frequency diesel-powered shuttle service to the Beenleigh and Gold Coast Lines at Salisbury station. The stations, track and rolling stock for the Flagstone rail service is estimated to cost $300M. 36 Brisbane Cross City Metro - Portside to Indooroopilly In 2007, the Lord Mayor’s Taskforce Investigation (LMTFI) identi ed three inner city metro lines (University, Hospital and Sports Lines) as shallow tunnel, “tube” style shuttle services. In 2008, the Inner City Rail Capacity Study considered how these lines may con ict or synergise with the Cross River Rail (CRR) proposal and concluded that a metro line, like the University Line – from St Lucia to Teneriffe – could complement the CRR and form a subsequent stage to it (referred to in this study as Cross River Rail Stage 2). GHD has assessed both these proposals and has given consideration to an extension of the University Line concept in the form of a Driverless Underground Metro on a corridor from Indooroopilly, in the west, to Portside, in the east, via Bulimba. The line would integrate with the Citytrain network at interchanges at Indooroopilly and South Brisbane. The project cost is approximately $4000M for this stage. Consideration has also been given to an extension further west to Darra railway station via the suburbs of Kenmore, Jindalee and Mount Ommaney at a cost of $2000M. The Metro as a medium term project: • Effectively links the valuable peninsulas of the Brisbane River with a high frequency shuttle service to facilitate and connect more intensive potential developments along the river. • Connects a new “string” of inner city stations (at Albert Street, Centenary Place and James Street) offset to the east of the existing CBD rail stations with potentially high density developments along the river. • Signi cantly enhances accessibility across the river and forms another key plank in the goal of transitioning the system from a radial to an integrated network of independent lines. The Cross City Metro is a visionary project to facilitate the quality development of inner Brisbane as the city matures in a “Peak Oil” environment. It is unlikely to be justi ed within the 10 year horizon but the $4000M rst stage to Indooroopilly should be considered for delivery in the medium term (2022 2027). The extension from Indooroopilly to Darra at a cost of $2000M would also be beyond the ten year horizon subject to the ability of the project to attract PPP funding. Funding for the planning and property acquisition associated with the Brisbane Metro of $200M has been included in the Program 2017-2022. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 37 Moreton Bay Rail Link - a long time coming but here to stay An observation about Moreton Bay Rail Link MBRL The 12km heavy rail spur line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring is being funded by the Commonwealth, State and Morten Bay Council governments following a 2010 Federal election commitment. The project had been discussed for over 50 years and was submitted to Infrastructure Australia for funding in 2008 as a heavy rail spur line. The project proposes six stations at an average spacing of 2km and a terminus on the edge of the suburb of Kippa-Ring. The spur line con guration will be required to share platform space through the network core of CBD stations and consequently this service will struggle to achieve attractive frequencies of service. 38 The residents in the Petrie to Kippa-Ring corridor have waited some time for heavy rail. The project enjoys support from all sides of politics at the local, state and Commonwealth levels and will be delivered in 2014. Funding has been committed by the Commonwealth ($742M), Queensland ($300M) and Moreton Bay Regional Council ($105M). It would be remiss however, not to note that a less expensive, higher frequency customer focussed solution could be achieved for the residents of the corridor if a high frequency busway or light rail was considered. A light rail or bus shuttle would interchange at Petrie Station on the main northern line with potentially higher frequency services to Caboolture. The advantage of a bus or light rail based transit would be its ability to penetrate further into the low density Redcliffe peninsula. The 2011-12 Budget makes a $253M provision for planning/property and early works that is included in the 2012-17 Program. Projects Beyond 2022 Longer term public transport projects considered to be beyond the current ten year program, but worthy of future consideration are shown in Table 13: Table 13: Projects Beyond Ten Years Projects Beyond Ten Years South East Busway (Springwood to Loganholme) Rail - Elanora to Coolangatta Sunshine Coast Light Rail Future Stages Rail - Redbank Plains to Ipswich Rail - Acacia Ridge to Flagstone (future stages) Gold Coast Rapid Transit (future stages) Rail - Gowrie to Grandchester (future stages) Brisbane Metro Northern Busway (future stages) Bus Priority and Park n’ Ride Eastern Busway Future Stages Redland Bus Priority Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 39 What needs to be delivered in the next 5 and 10 years? What needs to be Delivered Between Now and 2022? 40 There are a range of pressure points for public transport infrastructure in SEQ but the priority should be given to providing a reliable and frequent service for users and to overcome existing issues critical to the safe and smooth operation of the public transport system. Providing a reliable and frequent service for users Recommended Investment Program Table 14: Public Transport 5 Year Priority Program, 2012 - 2017 After assessing project options, GHD recommends Capital the project priorities with estimated capital expenditure Project Priorities Expenditure Project Priorities (QLD Budget) for the next ve (EST) year periods, 2012 - 2017 and 2017 Sunshine Coast Connect $420M Eastern Bus Priority - Bus lanes 2022 as: Carindale to Capalaba Inner City Rail (The Cleveland Solution) $2500M New Citytrain Stabling Depot at Clapham $100M Gold Coast Bus Lanes $30M Gold Coast Rapid - Broadbeach to Parkwood $280M Rail - Comera to Helensvale $430M Rail - Kuraby to Kingston and Loganlea $230M Eliminate Open Level Crossings $400M New passenger rail stock $300M Rail - Lawnton to Petrie third rail track $200M Rail - Beerburrum to Landsborough $470M Moreton Bay Rail Link (MBRL) $253M CBD Bus Infrastructure Capacity Program $25M Eastern Busway - Main Ave to Bennetts Rd $300M Table 15: Public Transport 5 Year Priority Program, 2017 - 2022 Capital Expenditure (EST) $160M Project Priorities Capital Expenditure (EST) New passenger rail stock $500M Gold Coast Rapid - to Helensvale $850M South East Busway to Springwood $420M Eastern Busway 2A $25M Freight Line Improvements $575M Rail - Spring eld to Redbank Plains $200M CBD Bus Infrastructure Capacity Program $1000M Northern Busway - Sadlier St to Rode Rd $60M Northern Busway - Chermside to Aspley $600M Northern Bus Priority - Rode Rd to Chermside $50M Rail - Varsity to Elanora $1400M Rail - Richlands to Spring eld $280M Sunshine Coast Light Rail (planning and property) $600M Rail - Kepera to Ferny Grove $29M Rail - Acacia Ridge to Flagstone $300M Translink Station Upgrades $161M Eliminate Open Level Crossings $500M Bus Priority Toowoomba $20M Rail - Redbank to Ripley $450M Bus Priority $350M Park n’ Ride $350M Brisbane Metro (planning & property) $200M Public Transport 5 Year Priority Program = $7,498M Public Transport 6 to 10 Year Priority Program = $7,520M Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 41 Is there a Role for the Private Sector? Financing the Plan Is there a Role for the Private Sector? The current scal environment prevents the funding of “mega projects” such as Cross River Rail – there is simply no public funding available for projects of this scale. There is also no appetite for a traditional PPP for a project of this scale where capital costs are high and the patronage risk is transferred to the private sector, particularly public transport projects. In general, the private sector appetite for demand risk is very low, if not non-existent. Public transport projects are viewed by private investors and equity as even less attractive than toll roads – and the recent Australian track record in that regard is, at best, patchy. “Availability contract PPPs” may offer a mechanism to fund “value for money” major public transport projects, where contractors and operators are paid on the basis of the time the asset is made available to the user (at contractually agreed levels of service quality and operational performance). 42 The model is reasonably common in social infrastructure and emerging in public transport across several jurisdictions. An Availability PPP is the model being used to nance and deliver the Gold Coast Rapid Transit. “Availability” contracts, or hybrid schemes, generally involve the builder and/or operator taking some limited patronage risk through a performance regime (risk and reward) covering: • Availability (e.g. related to vehicles/rolling stock available to operate services and limited service cancellations) and reliability (e.g. on time running performance) of services • Vehicle and other facilities’ standards – can be very broad in scope, e.g. cleanliness, average eet age, removal of graf ti, on-board facilities such as real time passenger information etc, • Customer service standards – covering aspects such as call response times, on platform/station staff, internet and other media facilities, ticketing systems etc • Revenue protection. Adopting an Availability PPP may also enable sourcing of funds from a wider range of sources – bonds, superannuation funds etc – particularly where incentives are used and a long contract life is adopted (20+ years). It is critical for opportunities with relatively modest returns to offer value to investors, and in the case of public transport, this can be achieved by adoption of reasonably lengthy contract terms and up front capital risk sharing. Furthermore, a key issue for Government in adopting this funding model for public transport is recognising that it can set the standards of the service it seeks for customers. This will enshrine performance in a wellconstructed ‘risk and reward’ regime that rewards delivery above agreed standards and applies penalties where performance drops below agreed standards. The incorporation of an effective incentive regime can bring signi cant bene ts to public transport users and the State budget. Speci cally, the bene ts are in terms of service levels, reduced costs to the State per passenger trip or kilometre travelled and improved market share to public transport with improved asset utilisation. The availability model offers the State a real opportunity to extract maximum value in public transport infrastructure and service provision in SEQ. How can Local Government make a contribution? How can Local Government make a Contribution? Making a contribution to the provision of public transport infrastructure and services ts well with Local Government. Local Government is well placed to de ne and work with major providers and the State in developing appropriate services that deliver effectively locally and integrate well across jurisdictions. The legislative frameworks are in place to enable Local Government to accumulate funds which can be hypothecated to nominated public transport infrastructure and services. Such projects would need to be subject to needs assessment, rigorous cost bene t analysis and be clearly articulated in local and regional plans to ensure appropriate use of monies. A local government levy for public transport could aid in funding needed infrastructure and/or services in a timelier manner than would otherwise be the case. Gold Coast City Council and Sunshine Coast Regional Council already have such levies in place, while Brisbane City Council makes a substantial contribution to public transport out of its rates revenue each year. As well as the levies already in place, the Gold Coast City Council is also making capital contribution towards the Gold Coast Rapid Transit, and the Moreton Bay Regional Council is making a capital contribution of $105M toward the Moreton Bay Rail Line. Having a stake-in-the-game will encourage local government to take a more active role in community promotion and in seeking ways to reduce car dependency across SEQ. A levy on rateable properties may offer a mechanism for local government to take a more active role in public transport provision in a range of ways; from policy development, improved advocacy capacity, development of demonstration/pilot projects, ‘seed funding’ for projects or straight investment in operations or infrastructure. Clear rules would need to be put in place setting out the purposes for which any public transport levy could be used. Another key consideration would be whether any such levy should be applied on a regional basis across all local government jurisdictions in SEQ or on a selective, localised basis. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 43 44 Introducing Competitive Tension into the System There is a growing recognition around the world that the provision and operation of transport services which are separable from transport infrastructure can deliver better outcomes for commuters in situations where competitive pressures are limited, and where supported by an appropriate regulatory framework. Like Melbourne, many cities around the world from Dublin to Jakarta, from Jerusalem to Lagos, from London to the Gold Coast, from Mumbai to St Petersburg have embarked on ventures in urban public transport involving private sector participation in a variant of the Public Private Partnership (PPP) model. Reasons for bringing private operations to what have been traditional government owned and operated services include: • Contradictions in a Government trying to be policy maker, regulator and operator at the same time • Confusion (and often ineffectiveness) in trying to act commercially while pursuing laudable social goals • Restrictions on management freedom caused by public service norms and procedures (e.g. staf ng levels and pay scales determined across sectors rather than by business needs) • Constraints on nancial autonomy and investment due to government budgeting processes • Competition for resources from the core government functions of health, education, welfare etc • Reducing the overall size of subsidies for passenger journeys (or at least subsidy per passenger journeys in a growing market - size and/or share) to reduce crowding out of both public transport investment and investment in other sectors. Private businesses operating in competitive markets have more focussed aims and incentives. From an ef ciency perspective, gains of introducing market tension are now well understood in public transport. International experience suggests that technical ef ciency (producing outputs at least cost) is more likely to be achieved by a private management responsible and accountable for achieving stable and measurable commercial objectives. Futhermore, allocative ef ciency (producing outputs most closely meeting market demands) is more likely achieved in a competitive market where consumers are free to express their demands through market choice and where prices re ect production costs. In order for the best outcomes to emerge from a competitive public transport provider market, a number of elements need to be put in place as noted previously, including: • A base level of demand commensurate with the operations and investments envisaged • Carefully structured payments regime – containing both penalties for poor performance and rewards to exceeding agreed standards/ benchmarks • Contracts of suf cient duration to enable the private sector to extract maximum value from investments due to better certainty vis-à-vis longevity and contracts that are more re ective of the nature of services and assets involved. SEQ should follow the lead of international cities in urban transport Photo: Paul Harris Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 45 Value and innovation are available to the public transport users of SEQ 46 Greater frequency, seamless interchanges, value for money and a focus on the customer This report introduces some new thinking to the public transport delivery debate in South East Queensland. “The Cleveland Solution” accomodates the immediate needs and frees up rail capacity and scarce funds for other needed projects. The initiatives in this report deliver on: • frequency • operational exibility • asset utilisation • capital and operational costs. Furthermore, the report shows how “opening up” the market to the private sector can build on the bene ts of prioritised projects. The plan set out in this report is one which clearly puts the public transport user at the heart of the system. Public Transport in SEQ | Options to deliver value and innovation in future South East Queendland public transport infrastructure | January 20112 | 47 GHD Pty Ltd 201 Charlotte Street Brisbane Australia www.ghd.com Council of Mayors (SEQ) 239 George Street Brisbane Australia www.councilofmayorsseq.qld.gov.au © GHD Pty Ltd 2012 This document is and shall remain the property of GHD Pty Ltd. The document may only be used for the purpose for which it was commissioned and in accordance with the Terms of Engagement for the commission. Unauthorised use of this document in any form whatsoever is prohibited. Maps: © 2012. Whilst every care has been taken to prepare this map, GHD and NAVMap make no representations or warranties about its accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose and cannot accept liability and responsibility of any kind (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) for any expenses, losses, damages and/or costs (including indirect or consequential damage) which are or may be incurred by any party as a result of the map being inaccurate, incomplete or unsuitable in any way and for any reason. Data Sources: GoogleEarth Pro - Imagery (Extracted Dec 1/11); NAVMap - Streets (2010); GHD - Metro, Stations (2011).
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