2014 International Conference on Management Science & Engineering (21th) August 17-19, 2014 Helsinki, Finland The Construction and Study of Assessment System on Intersubjective Cognitive Differences of NIMBY Conflict —A Case Study of Julu Landfill in Hebei Province YANG Tuo School of Public Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, P.R.China Abstract: NIMBY conflicts surface compensation or benefits due to poor communication and conflicts triggered, but it is the essence of government officials, experts, scholars and the public to the conflict surrounding the policy response to cognitive bias, this bias affects not only the behavioral intentions surrounding populace, but also actions that directly affect their behavior. Existing literature focuses on research priorities NIMBY conflicts origin, the causes and coping strategies, and research on the cognitive differences between the different actors in coping strategies less. Therefore, this study uses fuzzy Delphi method to construct a comprehensive set of actors in the conflict NIMBY cognitive differences assessment framework, in order to reveal the different actors of the NIMBY attitude of cognitive strategies to deal with the conflict, seeking to resolve the different strategies a true reflection of the surrounding population, and for the construction of the main conflict between the NIMBY behavior norms laid research base. Keywords: cognitive differences, expert judgment, fuzzy delphi, indicator system 1 Introduction NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) is the facility that residents do not wish to set near their homes since they think that it should service publics but not threaten their living environment, health and other properties. [1] The construction of NIMBY facilities can meet the social needs, but it will cause the negative impact on the surrounding population health and property, which makes the publics accept inside, but oppose the construction of this facility in the vicinity of their own. NIMBY conflict triggered by NIMBY first appeared in the United States in the 1970s, mainly in opposition to polluting facilities. In recent years, along with social and economic development and improving environmental awareness of citizens, the construction of non-polluting facilities in order to improve the quality of urban life such as nursing homes, disease prevention and control Supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (11&ZD173, 11AGL009) 978-1-4799-5376-9/14/$31.00 ©2014 IEEE center has also become the focus of public protest. NIMBY conflict is superficially a conflict caused by unsatisfied benefits compensation or coordination with NIMBY as the carrier, but it is in essence cognitive opposition and bias in NIMBY between government officials, experts, scholars and the surrounding populace, and if this cognitive bias should not be promptly and effectively resolved, the public will vent their dissatisfaction and take action to prevent the facilities construction to show their stance, attitudes and expectations. Theory of planned behavior believes that behavioral cognition not only affects the behavioral intention of actors, but also directly affects the behavior (Notani, 1998). [2] We can say that cognitive differences of NIMBY conflict actors are the deep-seated cause of the generation and intensification of NIMBY conflicts, and the manner and means to process the conflicts have direct impact on social stability and harmony. Therefore, this research summarizes coping strategies proposed by the scholars for NIMBY conflict through literature review and in-depth interviews, explores how to construct a set of consensus-based integrated evaluation framework for cognitive differences of NIMBY conflict actors through Fuzzy Delphi expert questionnaire, and takes Hebei Julu landfill as an example to analyze the cognitive differences of government officials, experts, scholars and surrounding populace in ways to resolve the NIMBY conflict, so as to reveal different cognitive attitudes of actors on measures to resolve the NIMBY conflict and seek a true reflection of the populace on different measures, laying research foundation for the subsequent construction of the behavior norms for the NIMBY conflict actors. 2 Literature review The generation of NIMBY conflicts is caused by both irrational and rational factors. For the former, Lake (1987) observed the 81 waste treatment plants planned to build in United States from 1980 to 1987, only eight of which were successfully completed, mainly because of people’s NIMBY plot to be against the construction of environmental protection facilities for no reason. [3] Hunter & Leyden (1995) also pointed out that the - 1948 - NIMBY plot is a completely selfish, ideological and politicized behavioral tendency, which is difficult to persuade rationally, and many countries all view it as an obstacle to the public construction.[4] In contrast, McAvoy (1999) believes that the lack of public participation in the process of siting NIMBY facilities are the key factor that constitutes the NIMBY phenomenon, and if public participation is strengthened so that participants can effectively challenge the science and technology assumptions, it will help understand and accept different views from each other. [5] It is this intertwined emotion that makes the NIMBY conflict resolution extremely complex. As for ways to resolve the NIMBY conflict, experts and scholars in different fields have analyzed from different perspectives. Qiu Changtai (2007), starting from the environmental justice, believed that the government decision-making process is arbitrary, offering no channel for public participation, while NIMBY lacks security control facilities for environmental pollution, at the expense of people's environmental right and healthy living right, ignoring the ethics of environmental justice. [6] Li Yongzhan (1997) analyzed the conflict awareness, resources and interests of both sides from the point of view of conflict management and public policy, focusing on the controversies and the causes among policy stakeholders, solutions of which mainly consist of risk mitigation and feedback compensation. Zhang Xianghe (2010) analyzed from the point of view of spatial planning, and pointed out the NIMBY conflict resolution should be controlled at source, with scientific risk prevention planning through strengthening public participation, determining reasonable compensation, and other aspects like the facility siting. [7] Xiong Yan (2011) started from the perspective of risk assessment and risk analysis and proposed that responsible NIMBY units should improve its responsiveness to ensure the third party involvement in technical issues, and set various forms of citizen participation mechanisms to reduce the build resistance. [8] Li Jianhua (2001) studied the conflict resolving mechanism from public policy, and emphasized that, starting from aspects like civic engagement and economic incentives, NIMBY public participation and financial compensation improvement should be early planned to enhance the public trust in government and reduce construction resistance. [9] In the existing literatures, scholars studied on the origin, causes and solution paths of NIMBY conflicts from many different perspectives and made a useful exploration to improve the mechanisms for resolving NIMBY conflicts. However, the current scholars tend to focus on the formation and coping strategies of the NIMBY conflict, while few analyzes the cognitive differences between actors in different coping strategies. Cognition of NIMBY conflict actors on the same thing is influenced by complicating factor including knowledge structure, cultural background, work experience and information channels, and there exist discrepancies in cognitive perspective and understanding of measures taken in building facilities, while large opinion difference is easier to expand the scale of the conflict and impact the control effectiveness. Therefore, this study will be centered on cognitive differences to reveal the different cognitive attitudes of NIMBY conflict actors on the conflict resolving measures through the analysis of cognitive difference level of government officials, experts, scholars and the surrounding populace. 3 Research design NIMBY conflict resolution need to concern multiple value goals, for there are differences in the cognitive style between different participants. The multi-objective value can not be measured by traditional analysis methods, because they can not fully reflect semantic cognitive differences of the government officials, experts, scholars and the surrounding populace in NIMBY conflict solutions. To solve the semantic cognitive difference problem of the respondents in the evaluation items, this study applies fuzzy semantic variables to design the questionnaire, and have experts and scholars judge the project indicators. Fuzzy Delphi method is used to inspect the constructed cognitive differences evaluation system framework of NIMBY conflict actors and the applicability of indicators, and AHP is used to calculate and analyze the cognitive differences of NIMBY actors. 3.1 Research methods 3.1.1 Fuzzy Delphi Method The Delphi method seeks for expert advice through communication-feedback in the form of inquiry letters, capturing the advantages of both interviews and questionnaires. As a subjective and qualitative method, the Delphi method not only can be used in the prediction field, but also can be widely used in the construction of various evaluation index systems and the determining process of specific indicators. [10] However, the traditional Delphi method has shortcomings like time-consuming, high cost, low recoveries and easy to distort the expert opinions. Ishikawa (1993) used the concept of cumulative frequency distribution and fuzzy integral to integrate expert opinion as fuzzy numbers and determined fuzzy Delphi method. [11] Compared with the traditional Delphi method, fuzzy Delphi method has the following advantages as an indicator screening tool: 1) The number of investigations and survey costs are reduced; 2) A more complete expression of expert opinion is achieved; 3) With the introduction of fuzzy theory, expert knowledge can better achieve the binding of quantitative calculation and qualitative analysis. [12] 3.1.2 Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP is to use the experience of decision-makers to determine the relative importance of measurement indicators, which expresses people's subjective judgment in the form of number to reflect the importance of indicators and give standard weights of each decision scheme reasonably, achieving quantitative and qualitative - 1949 - combination and laying the foundation for a fair and scientific risk assessment. Wu Dianting and Li Dongfang (2005) summarized the contribution of AHP into the following three points: a) it provided a framework for thinking level, easy to organize ideas to be structured and clear; b) scaling by contrast increased the objectivity of judgments; c) combination of qualitative inference and quantitative judgments enhanced the scientificity and practicability. Therefore, this study uses AHP assess NIMBY conflict actors framework and evaluation indicator weights through pairwise comparison. 3.2 Research procedures (1) Primary exploration on indicator system. According to the study purpose, literature review and expert interviews, develop a preliminary evaluation system for NIMBY conflict actors and establish an evaluation framework. (2) Fuzzy semantic questionnaire design and survey. Use semantic fuzziness to design the questionnaire and invite experts to give their assessment on the appropriate level of assessment framework and evaluation factors proposed in this study. When the questionnaires are collected, use fuzzy Delphi calculation to confirm assessment framework and evaluation indicators for NIMBY conflict actors. (3) Index weights analysis of the evaluation framework. Use AHP to get decision-making groups and project weights and identify the cognitive differences between decision-making groups. (4) Empirical results analysis. Analyze the results and organize discussions on the results. 4 Primary exploration on evaluation index system In the literature review, scholars study NIMBY conflicts resolving mechanism from different angles, but no scholar has conducted empirical quantitive analysis of cognitive differences of stakeholders in different resolving mechanisms. This study, in accordance with the foregoing literature review, divides the conflict resolution mechanisms mentioned more by the scholars First class indicators A. Public participation B. Benefit compensation into four dimensions as public participation, benefit compensation, information disclosure and risk prevention. These four dimensions basically reflect current basic means and measures adopted to resolve NIMBY conflict. To facilitate the empirical research, the dimensions and evaluation indicators of the evaluation system of cognitive differences between NIMBY conflict actors should not be too many, but the content to be detected need indicating accurately in written expression the majority of respondents are able to understand. After reduction and reorganization, this study proposes operational assessment framework of cognitive differences between NIMBY conflict actors as shown in Tab.1, first class indicators are the above four dimensions, the second class indicators are evaluation and measurement indicators of each dimension. Though the evaluation indicators are supposed to be expressed with simplified wording, there are still a small number of evaluation indicators which are difficult to explain with clear and brief words. Therefore, the survey phase of the investigation requires a semi-open way, the relevant indicators being interpreted by the investigators face to face. 5 Indicator system construction To construct an appropriate evaluation framework of cognitive differences between NIMBY conflict actors, this study adopts semi-enclosed anonymous questionnaire and repeated communication-feedback process to gather expert opinions. For the number of evaluation experts, Delbecq et al (1975) consider that the number of members can be controlled from 15 to 30 when the Delphi panelists are of high homogeneity, while 5-10 is appropriate if they are of high heterogeneity. [13] Xiao Shuhui (2008) believes that the number of experts and scholars should be at least 8-10 people, and the group error can be reduced to a minimum with the increase of the members of the experts, but the number of expert members is over 30, its decision quality will not rise due to the number increase. [14] This study focuses on universities and government administrative agencies which are of high homogeneity, Tab.1 Primary exploration and literature sorting table on evaluation indicators First class Second class indicators Second class indicators indicators C.1 Environmental impact assessment disclosure A.1 Community participation C. Information C.2 Basic environmental information disclosure A.2 Hearing, forum disclosure C.3 Public involvement disclosure A.3 Public questionnaire C.4 Public opinion disposal disclosure A.4 Social organization intervention A.5 Expert advice argument D.1 Legal construction for risk prevention D.2 Environmental risk accountability system B.1 Monetary indemnity D.3 Environmental risk emergency system D. Risk B.2 Tax deduction and exemption D.4 Environmental risk evaluation system prevention B.3 Material compensation D.5 Environmental risk supervision system B.4 Labor compensation D.6 Environmental risk prediction system B.5 Protective compensation D.7 Risk troubleshooting system - 1950 - so the number of experts is controlled between 10 and 15. Because NIMBY conflict involves many fields, different perspectives will produce different conclusions. In this study, respondents are divided into university academics and government substantive staff two categories. The selection criteria are as follows: 1) those who are engaged in study-related teaching and research work; 2) those whose work field related or similar to the research topic; 3) those who have published papers similar or related to this study topic. According to the above criteria, this study selects totaling 11 university academics and government departments staff, university scholars including teachers and doctoral students from Peking University (1), Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (4) and the Chinese University of Mining and Technology(1); members from government practical departments include staff in Environmental Engineering Assessment Center of the Environmental Protection Department (2), CPC Hebei Provincial Party Committee Propaganda Department (1), Xingtai City People's Congress Standing Committee (1) and cadres form Daliangzhaung Township, Qiaodong District, Xingtai City (1). The questionnaire is divided into two phases, and the beginning and ending dates are October 10, 2013 and November 20, 2013, with 21 questionnaires issued and 20 returned, a return rate of 95%. After collecting the questionnaire data at each stage, the researchers calculate the index data and feed the result of this survey back as an annex to experts and scholars for reference until the indicator items achieve convergence and reach a consensus. If the expert consensus value Gi after convergence is below the threshold value S, then remove the indicator from the assessment framework. 5.1 Recycling and disposal of the first round expert questionaire The first phase of the survey was completed from October 10, 2013 to October 31, 2013. 11 questionnaires were distributed, and 11 were recovered, with a recovery rate of 100%. The views of experts and scholars in the first stage are shown in the following table. Through the calculation of test value Mi-Zi and consensus value Gi of 21 evaluation indicators of cognitive differences between NIMBY actors by Microsoft Excel 2007, the results are shown in Table.3. Tab.3 shows that the test value of index A3, B2, B5, C2, C4 and D3 Mi-Zi <0, failing to reach convergence and expert opinions failing to converge, so they need another round of expert investigation. 5.2 Recycling and treatment of the second round of expert questionnaire The second phase of the survey was completed from November 8, 2013 to November 20, 2013. The results of the first phase and views of experts and scholars are attached for reference. 11 questionnaires were distributed and 10 recovered, with a recovery rate of 91%. Compared with the first survey we can find that the revised test value of the index Mi-Zi are all greater than Tab.2 Opinion reorganization of the first phase Fuzzy Delphi (FDM) expert questionnaire Expert Expert opinion reorganization number The character of fuzzy analysis method is to analyze the fuzzy values of the questionnaire, but there is no Expert cross fuzzy zone among the indicators of the sample No.1 questionnaire, which will inevitably affect the semantic thinking level. Expert As for public participation, group involvement and No.2 individual involvement should be differentiated. There exist cognitive errors of material compensation in benefit compensation, so material Expert compensation should be interpreted with notes, No.3 while the interest compensation subjects should be distinguished. …… …… The description of protective examination is not Expert accurate, and there are mutual contents in material compensation and protective examination, such as No.10 drugs. There exists much divergence in basic environmental information of information disclosure, the name of which is less precise. Expert Basic environmental information should include No.11 sketch of construction projects, overview of the impacts the construction projects may have on the environment, policies and measures to prevent or mitigate adverse environmental impact. zero, in the state of convergence, showing that experts and scholars reach a consensus on the revised evaluation system of cognitive differences between NIMBY conflict actors, laying foundation for further analysis of expert consensus value Gi. Threshold value S can directly impact assessment indicator selection, while as for the way to determine the threshold value S, the existing literatures are generally according to subjective judgment of experienced researchers. Chen Zhaohong (2001) considered that under the consideration of practical efficiency and cost, indicator items obtaining above 80% or 90% of expert reorganization can be used. By analyzing the relevant literature, the author sets the threshold value of the expert consensus Gi ≥ 7. The index test value Mi-Zi and expert consensus value Gi in the second phase are shown in Fig.1. The results show that, in addition to the tax compensation index B2 which does not obtain a majority decision group identity, the other indicators are greater than the threshold value S. By comparing the change of the expert consensus value Gi in two stages, in addition to indicators A1, C3, D2 and D5 which have declined in the second stage, the rest of the indicators have increased by varying degrees, the overall average value of expert consensus Gi also increase from 7.48 in the first phase to 7.83 in the second stage, reflecting there is a tendency to increase the score after the expert members refer to the calculation results and feedback of the first stage to the second phase of investigation. - 1951 - NO. 1 2 3 Tab.3 Statistical analysis results of the first phase of the questionnaire Conservative Optimistic cognitive Assessment indicators Expert ognitive value value Mi-Zi consensus First class Second class value Gi indicators indicators A1 3 6.010 9 7 8.432 10 0.422 7.648 A2 4 6.150 8 6 8.446 10 0.296 7.139 A3 1 5.523 9 4 8.014 10 -2.510 6.679 4 5 6 A4 A5 B1 4 4 5 6.125 6.796 7.504 9 8 9 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.354 9.082 9.502 10 10 10 0.728 1.786 0.498 7.843 7.784 8.358 7 B2 0.1 3.070 9 2 6.317 10 -3.753 4.949 B3 B4 1 4 4.351 5.577 7.5 8 5 6 7.148 7.809 10 10 0.297 0.233 6.014 6.855 10 B5 0.1 3.807 8 2 6.947 10 -2.860 5.247 11 C1 6 7.785 9 7.5 9.651 10 0.366 8.459 12 C2 4 6.751 9 6 8.847 10 -0.904 7.676 C3 5.5 7.525 9 8 9.513 10 0.989 8.506 14 C4 4 6.339 9 6 8.446 10 -0.893 7.437 15 16 D1 D2 5 5 7.065 7.267 9 9 7.5 7.5 9.071 9.268 10 10 0.505 0.500 8.172 8.257 17 D3 4 7.045 9 6 9.071 10 -0.975 7.833 D4 D5 D6 D7 4 4 6 6 6.990 7.163 7.703 7.703 8 9 8 8 8 7.5 7.5 7.5 9.279 9.311 9.607 9.607 10 10 10 10 7.48 2.289 0.648 1.404 1.404 8.000 8.245 7.938 7.938 8 9 13 18 19 20 21 A B C D Average value of Gi No convergence No convergence No convergence No convergence No convergence No convergence Fig.1 Index test value and expert consensus value in the second phase 5.3 Evaluation indicator determination From the analysis of the results, as for the four first class indicators of public participation, benefit compensation, information disclosure and risk prevention, the expert identifications of the information disclosure and risk prevention are the most consistent. Monetary compensation is the most remarkable one among second class indicators, the expert consensus value of which is the highest of all 20 secondary indicators. Conversely the two secondary indicators of public survey and protective examination get low scores, indicating that experts disagree on this view. After deleting the evaluation index B2 which does not meet the threshold value S, this study constructs an assessment framework of cognitive differences between NIMBY conflict actors (Fig.2), including four first class indicators, eight second class indicators and 20 third class indicators. - 1952 - Fig.2 Evaluation indicators of cognitive differences between NIMBY conflict actors 6 Cognitive differences of actors in Julu landfill Frequent incidents of garbage disposal bring unprecedented social pressure from public opinion to construction companies and government departments. As odors, dioxin due to garbage incineration, landfill leachate and many other issues become the focus of public concern and attention, government departments have to devote more resources to balance and coordinate the interests of all parties, and the normal operation and stable development of waste disposal companies also face enormous risks and challenges. NIMBY effect and social conflict in the waste disposal industry can be summed to the conflict between a wide range of waste production and centralized processing, and conflict between minority environmental quality deterioration and majority environmental benefits, thus studies on NIMBY effect of the landfill and its social conflict resolution mechanism have certain practical significance. Therefore, this study selects Hebei Julu landfill as research object, which is a Class Ⅳ landfill located 5 km northeast of Julu Town, with an area of 120 acres and a total capacity of 115.07 cubic meters. This study expects to understand cognitive differences between NIMBY actors through the analysis of the Julu landfill and provide a reference for the follow-up studies. 6.1 Evaluation system and indicator weights assignment After establishing evaluation framework, this study tries to use Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to - 1953 - integrate the views of relevant experts and scholars, pairwise compare the relative importance of assessment indicators and calculate the weight of each indicator. The questionnaire is divided into two phases, and the beginning and ending dates are October 10, 2013 and April 27, 2014. The first phase of the survey was completed from December 20, 2013 to January 28, 2014. 26 questionnaires were distributed, and 24 were recovered, with a recovery rate of 92%. The second phase of the survey was completed from April 8, 2014 to April 27, 2014. 38 questionnaires were distributed and 36 recovered, with a recovery rate of 95%. Local government officials and township staff are increased into questionnaire respondents on the basis of the fuzzy semantic respondents in the previous stage. Meanwhile, to assess the cognitive differences of different decision-making groups in the risk perception impact, populace surrounding Julu landfill are also involved as respondents, mainly residents within 5 km radius of the landfill. A total of 64 questionnaires were issued and 60 questionnaires were returned, with a return rate of 94%, involving 18 government officials, 16 experts and scholars and 26 surrounding people. After the questionnaire this study calculates the weights of cognitive differences between various actors in the whole sample. For comparison, the cognitive weight values will be shown in radar map in this research (Fig.3 to 7) for visual analysis. Fig.4 Public participation dimension of cognitive differences of actors most recognized dimension by surrounding people, followed by risk prevention, showing that starting from economy can get most popular support and reduce the construction resistance. Meanwhile, they all think information disclosure less important, showing that information disclosure system all sectors of contemporary society are calling for has not been accepted by various actors. There are a lot of cognitive differences in public participation, the acceptance of experts and scholars is significantly higher than other groups, which may be related with their knowledge and professional background, expecting to resolve conflicts through communication and coordination. 6.2.2 Cognitive differences analysis of second class evaluation dimension 1) Public participation. In this dimension community participation is the most important evaluation indicator no matter in terms of the whole dimension or actors. The main indicators with large differences are mainly expert argument meetings and public surveys, the former accounting for a larger proportion in experts and scholars, while the latter being recognized more by the surrounding people, the reasons of which may be related with the representativeness of actors. Fig.3 First class evaluation dimension of cognitive differences between actors 6.2 The results of analysis of the weight assignment 6.2.1 Cognitive differences analysis of first class evaluation dimension The overall opinion score shows that risk prevention is the most important dimension to assess, followed by interest compensation, public participation and information disclosure. Down to government officials, experts and scholars, both consider that risk prevention is the most important and starting from system, early warning and emergency response helps maximize access to the building support. The benefit compensation is the - 1954 - Fig.5 Benefit compensation dimension of cognitive differences of actors 2) Benefit compensation. From the weights of each evaluation index, the various actors reach a consensus that money is the best way of compensation. Both experts and the surrounding people put labor compensation as the second choice, expecting to obtain stable income by obtaining employment opportunities to participate in project facilities. Government officials list material compensation as the second choice, desiring to get public support through disposable compensation method. 3) Information disclosure. Overall comments display the indicator environmental impact assessment accounts for the largest share. As for the individual opinions of the three actors, the government officials, experts and scholars hold that the environmental impact assessment is the most important, while the surrounding people pay more attention to public opinion disposal results, and this difference may be in close contact with their own interest demands of the surrounding populace. cognitive differences of research actors. Fig.7 Risk prevention dimension of cognitive differences of actors 7 Conclusion Fig.6 Information disclosure dimension of cognitive differences of actors 4) Risk prevention. This overall opinion of this assessment dimension shows that the legal construction is the most important indicator. Cognitive differences among various groups focus on the two indicators of the legal system and accountability system. The former is valued by government officials, experts and scholars, hoping to solve the NIMBY risk problem through institutionalized means, while the latter is valued by the surrounding people, expecting to restraint the safety awareness of government officials and NIMBY construction unit through accountability system. In conclusion, government officials pay more attention to the system, the policy and the implementation feasibility, experts and scholars are more concerned about their professional background considerations, hoping to strengthen communication and mitigate conflict through public participation, and the surrounding populace pays more attention to actual needs related to self-interest. The above analysis lays certain foundation for the follow researches on the causes of The study carried out fuzzy Delphi questionnaire survey and cognitive level analysis survey in two stages through literature review and questionnaire survey, the main purpose of which is to construct the evaluation framework for cognitive differences of NIMBY conflict actors, and analyze the cognitive differences between actors in ways to resolve NIMBY conflicts with an example of Hebei Julu landfill. The indicator system construction involved in this research is only one aspect of cognitive differences evaluation of NIMBY conflict actors, and the follow-up studies will organize empirical researches on the impact of NIMBY on the public, government officials, experts and scholars to analyze the cognitive differences in the three groups, to verify the effectiveness of the indicator system. References [1]Li Yongzhan. NIMBY syndrome solution [J]. Urban and Planning,1997,24(1): 69-79. 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