Orf 467
Transportation Systems Analysis
Fall 1010/11
Planning and Analysis Tools of Transportation Demand and
Investment
Development of Formal Transportation Planning Process
23 USC Para 134: Metropolitan Planning .
Findings- ISTEA “It is in the national interest to encourage and promote the development of
transportation systems embracing various modes of transportation in a manner which will efficiently
maximize mobility of people and goods within and through urbanized areas and minimize transportationrelated fuel consumption and air pollution.
To accomplish this objective, metropolitan planning
organizations, in cooperation with the State, shall develop transportation plans and programs for the
development of transportation facilities which will function as an intermodal transportation system for the
State, the metropolitan areas and the Nation.”
Findings- TEA21 (Changes in italics) “It is in the national interest to encourage and promote the
safe and efficient management, operations, and development of surface transportation systems that will
serve the mobility needs of people and freight and foster economic growth and development within and
through the urbanized area, while minimizing transportation-related fuel consumption and air pollution”.
Contents (of plans) TEA-21 “The plans and programs for each metropolitan area shall provide for
the development and integrated management and operation of transportation systems and facilities
(including pedestrian walkways and bicycle transportation facilities) that will function as an intermodal
transportation system for the metropolitan area and as an integral part of an intermodal transportation
system for the State and the United States.”
Process of (Plan) development (TEA21) “ The process for developing the plans and programs shall
provide for consideration of all modes of transportation and shall be continuing, cooperative, and
comprehensive to the degree appropriate, based on the complexity of the transportation problems to be
addressed’’.
(f) Factors to be considered:
(1) Preservation of existing transportation facilities (i.e. maintenance)
(2) Consistency with energy conservation
(3) Relieve and prevent congestion
(4) Anticipate the likely effect of transportation policy decisions on land use and development
(5) The programming of expenditures on transportation ( i.e. how & when $$$ are spent)
(6) The effects of non publicly funded transportation projects
(7) Access to major points/places: ports, historic sites, military installations, etc
(8) The need for connectivity of roads
(9) Needs identified by the transportation management system (i.e. operational efficiency)
(10) Preservation of rights of way
(11) Methods to enhance efficient movement of freight
(12) Use of life-cycle costs in design and engineering of facilities
(13) The overall social, economic, energy and environmental effects of transportation decisions.
(14) Methods to expand and enhance transit service.
(15) Capital investment that would result in increased security for transit systems
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Orf 467 Fall9/10
Statewide Planning: Basically same as Metropolitan, except state-wide
All of this should lead to a Continuing, Comprehensive, and Coordinated planning process containing:
LPR: Long Range Transportation Plan (20 year forecast period)
(1) Identify transportation facilities that as an integrated metropolitan transportation system
(2) Include a financial plan that demonstrates how the LRP can be implemented using both public
and private resources. Include innovative finance techniques such as value capture, tolls, and
congestion pricing (value pricing). Aside: ATA Board meeting last year identified as one of
the two major lobbying initiatives; fighting tolls on interstates.
(3) Assess capital investments and other measures
(4) Indicate as appropriate proposed transportation enhancement facilities
TIP: Transportation Improvement Plan (3 year period, updated at least every 2 years)
Priority list of projects with finance plan
TMA: Transportation Management Areas (Urbanized areas > 200,000 pop)
Congestion management system: through the use of travel demand reduction and operational
management strategies.
HOW?
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Basic relationship between: land use and transportation demand
Begins with an Inventory of
(1) Land use
(2) Transportation facilities
(3) Transportation demand
(1) Population
(2) Land use
(3) Transportation facilities
(4) Trip demand
Concepts of urban form and structure:
 Urban Form. The spatial pattern or “arrangement” of individual elements – such as buildings,
streets, parks, and other land uses =(collectively called the built environment), as well as the social
groups, economic activities and public institutions. These form the elements of a zoning plan.
 Urban Interaction. The collective set of interrelationships, linkages, and flows that integrate and
bind the pattern and behavior of individual land uses, groups, and activities into the functioning
entities, or subsystem. These include transportation systems, communication systems, energy
systems, sewer systems.
 Urban Spatial Structure. Results from the combination of the urban form and the urban interaction
with a set of organizational rules to create a city system.
Criteria for measuring and comparing urban structure
Level
Criteria
Description & Examples
Context
Timing
Functional character
External environment
Relative location
Scale
Shape
Site & Topo. base
Transport network
Density
Homogeneity
Concentricity
Sectorality
Connectivity
Time & stage of development
Dominant mode & type of production (service center, mining town)
Socio-economic & cultural environment
Position within larger metropolitan area (bedroom community)
Size: in area, population, income, etc.
Geo. shape; multi-nucleated centers, coastal
Physical landscape
Type & config. Of transport networks (rail, bus, highway)
Shape of density gradient
Degree of mixing of uses
Degree to which uses & activities are organized zonally
Degree to which uses & activities are organized in sectors
Degree to which sub-areas are connected by transportation networks, social
interactions
Correspondence between function and form
Degree to which urban form can evolve from one use to another
Underlying mechanism of spatial sorting and integration
Macro-form
Internal form &
function
Organization &
Behavior
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Conformity
Substitutability
Organizational
principles
Cybernetic properties
Regulatory
mechanisms
Goal orientation
Sensitivity of form to change
Strength of zoning, building controls, financial constraints
Degree to which urban structure evolves toward a priori objectives
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Concepts of:
Accessibility: the basic concept underlying the relationship between land use and transportation is
accessibility.
 Accessibility increases when movement becomes less costly.
 Personal accessibility is usually measured by a weighted sum of the available opportunities (activity
sites ), where the weight is some inverse function of the cost of getting to each opportunity ( and may
also be a product of the value of each opportunity, if one is bundling opportunities of different types).
Ak,i =  Ok,j D-bj,i
Where:
A k,i = accessibility of attraction k at location i
O k,j = # of opportunities k at location j
D j,i = cost of travel between i and j
b = some constant (usually > 1, often 2)
Location Theory: drawing on agricultural land economics: assume there is one market located at the
center of a featureless field. The equilibrium value of the land (bid rent, the most that one would pay for
it), L:
0 = net revenue from crop production - cost of getting crop to market – Bid Rent
Thus Bid Rent and Transportation Costs share the net revenue, so
0 = E(p–a) - EfD -L
Solving for Bid rent L,
L = E (p–a) - EfD
Where:
E = yield per unit land
p = market price per unit of commodity at site
a = production $$ per unit of commodity at site
f = transportation $$ per unit yield, per unit distance to market from site
D = distance to market
If we now consider different uses (crops) having different separation costs then you can see how different
land uses naturally evolved around a center market.
Land Values: the above suggests a linear function if all bidders have the same net revenue (value):
LVi = a - b Di
Where: LVi is the land value at location i (say “zone i”)
a and b are constants and Di is distance from CBD to the centroid of zone i
However, there are finite number of different users having different “net revenue” (value) potential. The
high valued ones will bid up the rents where transportation is the cheapest, leaving the higher
transportation cost areas to the lower valued uses. Thus, land values don’t become negative, but decay to
zero at large distance in an inverse power relationship where the empirical value of the inverse power, d,
may have a value around 2 (inverse square)
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LVi = a Di-d
Or include more terms:
LVi = a + b1 Ci-c + b2 Mi-m + b3 Ei-e + b4 Si-s
Where: Ci is distance to employment center, Mi is distance to recreation center, etc.
Instead of using distance, we can consider “accessibility” to various attractions as the measure for
attractiveness of land ( Hansen’s Accessibility Model) . Thus, if Hi is the amount of vacant land (unused
development rights) at location i , then the development potential could be expressed as:
Di = Ai Hi
Then the population growth would be distributed to zones based on the relative development
potential AiHi / i(AiHi). If the total growth in population for a future year is Gt , the population to zone
i could be expected to be
Gi = Gt Di / i (Di )
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= Gt AiHi / i(AiHi)
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Travel Demand Forecasting:
Quantifies the amount of travel on the transportation system
“Traditional 4-Step Process in the formal transportation planning process
-1. Formulate goals and objectives, collect data
0. Urban Activity:
 Establish land-use & socio-economic data for target year.
1. Trip Generation
2. Trip Distribution
3. Modal Split
4. Network Assignment
5. Transportation Supply (Network Description)
Urban Activity:
1. Disaggregate area into Traffic Assignment Zones (TAZ); assign geographic tags to each zone.
2. For each TAZ provide:
 Total land area, then broken down to area devoted to each land-use/zoning classification:
 Residential
 Commercial
 Retail
 Educational
 Recreational
 Open space
3. Each classification can then be broken down into it’s trip generation characteristics. For
example: Type of dwelling units and density ( see table 11-3), income, floor space, type
Trip Generation:
 Two parts
 Trip Production (Home-based trips, HB, Non-home-based)
 Trip Attractions ( Home-based work, Home-based shop, Home-based school, Home-based
other, Non-home-based)
 Two tools: Multiple regression ( trip productions); cross classification ( trip attraction)
 For now use the linear relationships from Example 4, pp. 476-77.
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