Regional Competitive Industry Analysis
Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties
May 2014
Yamhill
Polk Marion
Michael Meyers, Economist
(503) 229-6179
[email protected]
Global Strategies Section
One World Trade Center
121 SW Salmon Street, Suite 205
Portland, OR 97204
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 3
INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................... 4
SECTION 1: SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY ................................................................................. 4
Regional Indicators ............................................................................................................................................ 4
Competitive Industry Indicators ...................................................................................................................... 5
Employment Growth Projections ................................................................................................................... 5
Caveats and Limitations .................................................................................................................................... 5
SECTION 2: OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY ............................................................. 6
Employment, Total Payroll and Average Wage per Job .............................................................................. 6
Employment Growth ........................................................................................................................................ 6
Manufacturing Employment and Wages ........................................................................................................ 7
Unemployment Rate.......................................................................................................................................... 8
SECTION 3: REGIONAL COMPETITIVE INDUSTRIES................................................................... 9
Location Quotient Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 9
Shift-Share Analysis .........................................................................................................................................10
Regional Employment Projections by Industry ..........................................................................................12
Page 2 of 14
Regional Competitive Industry Analysis
Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties
Executive Summary
Lying in the heart of the Willamette Valley, this region’s economy is grounded in natural resources
and state government. Marion County is home to Oregon’s capitol and third largest Metropolitan
Statistical Area, Salem. As such, state government is an important industry to the region’s economy.
Polk and Yamhill counties are more rural and rely on natural resources for their economic base,
although Marion County also has a significant economic base in natural resources. The region had
the fifth fastest employment growth rate between 2002 and 2012 amongst the state’s regions,
growing 5.1 percent compared to the state rate of 4.1 percent. The private sector average annual
wage is 23 percent lower than the statewide average, due in large part to the region’s dependence on
lower paying industries in agriculture, food, and beverage manufacturing. Nonetheless, the region
has high paying, competitive industries in forestry and wood product manufacturing, medical
equipment and supplies manufacturing, and other manufacturing subsectors.
Manufacturing was 13 percent of the region’s private sector employment in 2012, slightly higher
than the statewide average of 12 percent. With a location quotient of 1.19, manufacturing is very
important to the region economy and its competitive advantages. Food manufacturing is the largest
manufacturing subsector in the region, accounting for nearly a third of manufacturing employment
in the region. Wood products and miscellaneous manufacturing are the next largest manufacturing
subsectors in the region.
Industries in agriculture, food, and beverage manufacturing experienced some of the largest
competitive advantage percent and job gains in the region between 2002 and 2012. Nonscheduled
air transportation had the highest competitive advantage percent gain over the ten year period.
Manufacturing industries in miscellaneous, furniture, metals, and medical equipment and supplies
also experienced significant competitive advantage percent and job gains. Retirement and assisted
living facilities and business support services experienced the largest competitive advantage job
losses between 2002 and 2012 in the region. Industrial machinery manufacturing, fruit and tree nut
farming, cattle ranching and farming, and warehousing and storage were competitive traded sector
industries that experienced large competitive advantage percent losses over the ten year period.
Amongst emerging traded sector industries, software, e-commerce stores, wholesale trade,
professional, scientific, and technical services, management of companies and enterprises, and
agriculture, construction, and mining machinery manufacturing had the highest competitive
advantage percent and job gains between 2002 and 2012.
Employment in the region is projected to grow by 14 percent between 2012 and 2022, a little less
than the statewide rate of 15 percent. Construction, administrative and support services, and health
care are projected to grow the fastest between 2012 and 2022, and with manufacturing, add the most
jobs. Manufacturing is projected to grow 13 percent, faster than the statewide average of 11 percent.
Page 3 of 14
Introduction
The purpose of this report is to present a competitive industry analysis of the regional economy
consisting of Marion, Polk, and Yamhill counties. Regional trends in employment and wages are
analyzed and compared to trends in Oregon and the U.S. This report provides data and analysis to
help economic development practitioners, policy makers, and businesses identify strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that pertain to their regional economy. The information in
this report can be used to help guide strategic economic development efforts in the region.
This report is composed of four sections. Section one outlines the data sources and methodology
behind the creation of this report. The second section provides an overview of the regional
economy by analyzing employment and wage trends over time. Section three supplies a framework
to identify industries in the region that may have a competitive advantage in developing or
expanding regional industry specialization. Section four analyzes ten year employment projections of
the region’s main industries and identifies industries with above average growth potential.
Section 1: Sources and Methodology
This report is based on analysis of statistical data from the Oregon Employment Department, U.S.
Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The methodology for this report uses a series of indicators to provide a framework for evaluating
the competitive strengths and growth opportunities of the regional economy. The following
indicators are used for this report.
Regional Indicators
Section two begins with a comparative analysis of the regional economy focusing on private sector
business establishments, employment, total payroll, and average wage to show the geographic
distribution and characteristics of employment in each region. Recent employment and wage trends
are also analyzed and compared to the state.
This analysis is followed by analysis of manufacturing employment and wages. Employment and
average annual wages of leading manufacturing subsectors are presented, along with their location
quotients. A location quotient measures the employment concentration of a given industry in a
region compared to that industry’s employment concentration in the nation as a whole. Location
quotients above 1.0 indicate that an industry’s share of employment in the region was greater than its
share of employment nationwide. For example, an industry with a location quotient of 2.0 has twice
as much employment locally as the national average for that industry. Location quotients are a
simple way to help identify industries in the region that have a competitive advantage as
demonstrated by a greater than average employment concentration. An analysis of manufacturing
establishments by size class follows, which shows the distribution of manufacturers in the region
amongst four different size classes. This analysis shows how much a region may be dependent on
small, medium, or large-size manufacturers.
Page 4 of 14
The unemployment rate analysis reveals how well the region has done at creating and retaining jobs
for its working-age population. The analysis compares the regional unemployment rate to rates from
Oregon and the U.S., which shows whether the region has performed better or worse than average.
This comparative analysis also provides insight into how autonomous the region’s economy is from
Oregon and the U.S.
Competitive Industry Indicators
Section three begins with two detailed analyses that attempt to identify industries that have a
competitive advantage in the region. A detailed location quotient analysis by four digit NAICS codes
shows industries in the region that appear to have a competitive advantage based on high location
quotients. This analysis includes all sectors of the economy, not just manufacturing. Industries with
high location quotients and higher than average wages are highlighted.
Following the location quotient analysis is a shift-share analysis. Shift-share analysis, like location
quotient analysis, is useful in identifying industries with a competitive advantage in the region.
Unlike a location quotient analysis that is a point-in-time analysis, shift-share analysis looks at
industry performance over time to measure how employment in an industry changed in relation to
national and industrial trends. If a region’s industry consistently outperforms its peers nationwide
over a period of time this indicates a growing competitive advantage for that industry. The shiftshare analysis examines the ten-year growth rates for regional and nationwide industry employment.
Employment change over the past ten years for each industry is broken out by change due to
national total employment trends, change due to national industry employment trends, and change
due to competitive advantage. Tables 6, 7, and 8 present competitive share percent changes and
competitive share job gains and losses for industries in the region that had the largest gains and
losses in competitive advantage.
Employment Growth Projections
Section four examines employment growth projections for the major industries in each region.
Growth projections are a good way to identify industries where employment growth is projected to
occur. Current projections cover the period from 2012 to 2022.
Caveats and Limitations
Employment and wage data throughout the report comes from Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Oregon Employment Department. This data
is limited to employment and wages that are covered under unemployment insurance in Oregon.
The Employment Department estimates that about 90 percent of jobs in Oregon are covered by
unemployment insurance. Employment data presented in the Table 9 is total non-farm employment
and not limited to covered employment in Oregon.
The manufacturing establishments by size data in Table 3 is a combination of two data sets. The
total number of manufacturing establishments comes from Quarterly Census of Employment and
Wage (QCEW) data from the Oregon Employment Department. The percent of manufacturing
establishments by employment size-class data comes from County Business Patterns (CBP) data
from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data sets are combined in this table because the QCEW data
Page 5 of 14
is more accurate in its total count of establishments, but it does not include size class data for
counties. The CBP data does have size class data for counties, but its overall number of
establishments by county is not as accurate as the QCEW. Combined, one can estimate the number
of establishments by employment-size class.
Section 2: Overview of the Regional Economy
Employment, Total Payroll, and Average Wage per Job
•
Private sector employment in this region accounted for 10.0 percent of Oregon’s total
private sector employment in 2012.
•
The 2012 private sector average annual wage in the region was $33,843, 22.5 percent lower
than the statewide average.
•
Marion County accounts for almost three-quarters of the region’s total private sector
employment.
•
Marion and Yamhill counties have similar average wages, around $34,500, while Polk County
has a lower average wage of $28,256.
Table 1: Employment, Total Wages, and Average Wage per Job, Private Sector, 2012
Area
Marion
Polk
Yamhill
Region
Oregon
Employment
98,112
11,974
26,856
136,942
1,373,607
Total Payroll
$3,364,318,263
$338,338,512
$931,912,259
$4,634,569,034
$59,948,736,635
Average
Wage
$34,291
$28,256
$34,700
$33,843
$43,643
% of Region
Employment
71.6%
8.7%
19.6%
100.0%
N/A
% of Statewide
Ave. Wage
78.6%
64.7%
79.5%
77.5%
100.0%
Source: Oregon Employment Depart ment , Quart erly Census of Employment & Wages.
Employment Growth
•
The region’s ten year private sector employment growth ranked 5th in the state.
•
Total private sector employment in the region increased by 5.1 percent between 2002 and
2012, higher than the statewide average growth rate of 4.1 percent.
•
Private sector employment growth in the region has not been distributed evenly amongst the
three counties, with Yamhill County growing by 12.2 percent, Polk County by 9.1 percent,
and Marion County by 2.8 between 2002 and 2012.
Page 6 of 14
Table 2: Change in Private Sector Employment, 2002-2012
Area
Marion
Polk
Yamhill
Region
Oregon
2002
Employment
95,418
10,973
23,939
130,330
1,320,125
2012
Employment
98,112
11,974
26,856
136,942
1,373,607
Employment
Change
2.8%
9.1%
12.2%
5.1%
4.1%
Employment
Change Rank
15
11
9
5
N/A
Source: Oregon Employment Depart ment , Quart erly Census of Employment & Wages.
Manufacturing Employment and Wages
•
Manufacturing was 12.8 percent of the region’s private sector employment in 2012.
•
With a location quotient of 1.19, manufacturing is very important to the region’s economy
and competitive advantages.
•
Food manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region, accounting for
nearly a third of manufacturing employment in the region. Wood products and
miscellaneous manufacturing are the next two largest subsectors.
•
The region has a slightly higher percentage of manufacturers with 99 or less employees than
the statewide average, but is more or less similar in its distribution of manufacturers by
employment size class as the state.
Table 3: Manufacturing Employment and Wages, 2012
NAICS
31-33
311
321
339
332
312
333
337
334
326
323
325
336
315
327
322
EmployIndustry
ment
Manufacturing
17,549
Food Manufacturing
5,320
Wood Product Manufacturing
1,680
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
1,628
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
1,377
Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 1,368
Machinery Manufacturing
920
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing
690
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 643
Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing
455
Printing and Related Support Activities
442
Chemical Manufacturing
395
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
381
Apparel Manufacturing
301
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
172
Paper Manufacturing
154
Total Pay
$698,227,980
$168,791,394
$67,525,678
$85,987,961
$59,866,521
$44,030,704
$47,324,009
$19,836,457
$33,397,442
$16,395,833
$15,117,494
$18,528,184
$16,012,040
$8,376,083
$7,242,099
$8,290,544
Location
Quotient
1.19
2.95
4.01
2.28
0.79
5.79
0.68
1.59
0.48
0.57
0.78
0.41
0.21
1.64
0.38
0.33
Average
Wage
$39,787
$31,728
$40,194
$52,818
$43,476
$32,186
$51,439
$28,748
$51,940
$36,035
$34,202
$46,907
$42,026
$27,828
$42,105
$53,835
Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages.
Page 7 of 14
Table 4: Manufacturing Establishments by Size, 2012
Area
Marion
Polk
Yamhill
Region
Oregon
Total Manufacturing
Establishments
372
78
239
689
5,608
Percent of Manufacturing Establishments by
Employment-Size Class
250 or
1-19
20-99
100-249
More
76.5%
18.4%
3.4%
1.7%
73.1%
20.9%
4.5%
1.5%
76.2%
20.1%
1.9%
1.9%
76.0%
19.3%
3.0%
1.7%
75.8%
18.2%
4.2%
1.8%
Source: Tot al est ablishment s from Oregon Employment Depart ment , Quart erly Census of
Employment & Wages; employment -size class dat a from U.S. Census Bureau, Count y Business
Pat t erns, 2011.
Unemployment Rate
•
The region’s unemployment rate largely mirrored the state’s unemployment rate between
2002 and 2012, but was higher than the U.S. rate throughout that time.
•
The region reached its highest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 10.8 percent, in
2009 and has since declined at a rate similar to the state and U.S.
•
The lowest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 5.3 percent, occurred in 2007.
Page 8 of 14
Section 3: Regional Competitive Industries
Location Quotient Analysis
•
Two industry groups – Agriculture, food, and beverage manufacturing and forestry and
wood product manufacturing – have the highest location quotients in the region.
•
Average wages in agriculture, food, and beverage are lower than the region average, while
average wages in forestry and wood products are higher than the region average.
•
Nonscheduled air transportation, medical equipment and supplies manufacturing, and
architectural and structural metals manufacturing are additional traded sector industries with
high location quotients in the region that pay higher than average wages.
Table 5: Industries with Highest Location Quotients
Private Sector, 2012, U.S. Base Area, Industries with Employment Greater than 100, Industries with Average Wage above
Region Average Shaded
NAICS
1153
1119
1114
3114
1133
8131
1151
3121
4812
1113
3212
3211
3219
3391
1121
7212
6233
6243
6232
3255
4249
3323
3119
4482
4452
2361
6212
4442
3118
EmployLocation Average
Industry
ment
Total Pay Quotient
Wage
Support Act ivit ies for Forest ry
1,023 $26,170,041
58.39
$25,582
Ot her Crop Farming
1,754 $46,384,291
22.50
$26,445
Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production
3,851 $102,123,748
21.62
$26,519
Fruit and Veget able Preserving and Specialt y Food Manufact
3,355
uring
$106,168,731
15.89
$31,645
Logging
781 $59,299,775
12.93
$75,928
Religious Organizations
2,339 $45,368,195
10.35
$19,396
Support Act ivit ies for Crop Production
3,107 $51,373,249
8.22
$16,535
Beverage Manufact uring
1,368 $44,030,704
6.24
$32,186
Nonscheduled Air Transport at ion
293 $17,588,026
5.94
$60,027
Fruit and Tree Nut Farming
1,252 $27,778,520
5.32
$22,187
Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufact uring
326 $13,636,279
4.22
$41,829
Sawmills and Wood Preservat ion
415 $21,745,055
4.00
$52,398
Ot her Wood Product Manufact uring
877 $29,741,543
3.68
$33,913
Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufact uring
1,213 $70,287,831
3.19
$57,945
Cat tle Ranching and Farming
483 $14,913,853
2.76
$30,878
RV (Recreat ional Vehicle) Parks and Recreat ional Camps
188
$3,034,854
2.73
$16,143
Continuing Care Ret irement Communit ies and Assist ed Living
2,473
Facilit
$50,289,916
ies for t he Elderly2.53
$20,336
Vocational Rehabilit at ion Services
867 $18,284,940
2.15
$21,090
Resident ial Int ellect ual and Development al Disability, Ment1,431
al Healt$30,909,199
h, and Subst ance2.00
Abuse Facilit
$21,600
ies
Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing
134
$6,443,302
1.86
$48,084
Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant Wholesalers
737 $29,745,494
1.84
$40,360
Archit ect ural and St ructural Met als Manufact uring
728 $30,827,009
1.72
$42,345
Ot her Food Manufact uring
348 $13,885,666
1.62
$39,901
Shoe St ores
361
$7,369,955
1.55
$20,415
Specialt y Food St ores
406
$7,710,907
1.50
$18,992
Resident ial Building Const ruct ion
1,028 $30,948,842
1.45
$30,106
Offices of Dent ists
1,518 $69,104,840
1.44
$45,524
Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies St ores
246
$6,685,895
1.44
$27,178
Bakeries and Tort illa Manufact uring
499 $12,406,148
1.43
$24,862
Page 9 of 14
Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages.
Page 10 of 14
Shift-Share Analysis
•
Nonscheduled air transportation had the highest competitive advantage percent gains
between 2002 and 2012. Industries in agriculture, food, and beverage manufacturing also
experienced large percent and job gains in competitive advantage over the ten year period.
•
Manufacturing industries in miscellaneous, furniture, metals, and medical equipment and
supplies experienced significant competitive advantage percent and job gains between 2002
and 2012 in the region.
•
Retirement and assisted living facilities and business support services experienced the largest
competitive advantage job losses between 2002 and 2012 in the region.
•
Amongst competitive traded sector industries, industrial machinery manufacturing, fruit and
tree nut farming, cattle ranching and farming, and warehousing and storage experienced the
largest competitive advantage percent losses between 2002 and 2012 in the region.
•
Emerging traded sector industries (location quotient less than 1.0) with the highest
competitive advantage percent and job gains between 2002 and 2012 were found in
software, e-commerce stores, wholesale trade, professional, scientific, and technical services,
management of companies and enterprises, and agriculture, construction, and mining
machinery manufacturing.
Table 6: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains,
2002-2012
Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.0 and Employment Greater than 100
NAICS
4812
4482
3121
3118
1151
4854
6244
6213
2373
3399
4431
4452
6243
3371
3323
2361
2381
1119
2383
3391
7224
3114
Employment Location
Competitive Competitive
Industry
2012 Quotient Share Percent Share Jobs
Nonscheduled Air Transportation
293
5.94
2162.2%
281
Shoe Stores
361
1.55
163.9%
221
Beverage Manufacturing
1,368
6.24
122.5%
746
Bakeries and Tortilla Manufact uring
499
1.43
112.1%
269
Support Act ivities for Crop Production
3,107
8.22
88.4%
1,353
School and Employee Bus Transport at ion
254
1.13
69.7%
95
Child Day Care Services
1,045
1.07
65.7%
389
Offices of Other Healt h Practit ioners
1,182
1.32
65.6%
360
Highway, St reet, and Bridge Const ruction
487
1.37
60.8%
204
Ot her Miscellaneous Manufact uring
417
1.25
54.8%
181
Elect ronics and Appliance Stores
691
1.10
47.9%
230
Specialt y Food St ores
406
1.50
47.4%
146
Vocational Rehabilitation Services
867
2.15
44.1%
254
Household and Institutional Furnit ure and Kit chen Cabinet Manufact
343 uring 1.27
29.9%
121
Archit ectural and Struct ural Met als Manufacturing
728
1.72
28.6%
181
Residential Building Construct ion
1,028
1.45
23.8%
256
Foundation, St ructure, and Building Exterior Cont ractors
1,041
1.24
23.6%
251
Ot her Crop Farming
1,754
22.50
22.5%
448
Building Finishing Contract ors
1,097
1.41
20.9%
246
Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing
1,213
3.19
14.6%
154
Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)
598
1.37
11.6%
68
Fruit and Veget able Preserving and Specialt y Food Manufacturing
3,355
15.89
9.5%
322
Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages.
Page 11 of 14
Table 7: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Losses,
2002-2012
Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.0 and Employment Greater than 100
NAICS
5621
4533
6233
4412
5614
6111
4884
6212
3332
6214
1113
4442
1121
4413
7223
4931
Employment Location
Competitive Competitive
Industry
2012 Quotient Share Percent Share Jobs
Wast e Collect ion
189
1.03
-81.2%
-243
Used Merchandise Stores
210
1.17
-38.7%
-85
Continuing Care Ret irement Communit ies and Assisted Living Facilities
2,473 for t 2.53
he Elderly
-33.9%
-726
Ot her Mot or Vehicle Dealers
191
1.18
-32.0%
-102
Business Support Services
1,220
1.20
-31.4%
-496
Element ary and Secondary Schools
942
1.06
-30.3%
-275
Support Act ivities for Road Transportation
143
1.35
-29.5%
-46
Offices of Dentist s
1,518
1.44
-25.8%
-428
Industrial Machinery Manufact uring
168
1.30
-25.8%
-80
Outpat ient Care Cent ers
1,030
1.29
-23.9%
-184
Fruit and Tree Nut Farming
1,252
5.32
-21.9%
-279
Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores
246
1.44
-17.9%
-60
Catt le Ranching and Farming
483
2.76
-14.3%
-62
Aut omot ive Part s, Accessories, and Tire St ores
747
1.18
-13.3%
-108
Special Food Services
922
1.29
-11.7%
-106
Warehousing and St orage
981
1.17
-11.2%
-91
Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages.
Table 8: Emerging Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, 2002-2012
Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Less than 1.0 and Employment Greater than 100
NAICS
6242
5112
8141
4541
4453
4244
4239
5416
3331
8133
5511
5221
5417
4461
6219
5619
3344
4236
4234
6116
4841
6215
Employment Location
Competitive Competitive
Industry
2012 Quotient Share Percent Share Jobs
Communit y Food and Housing, and Emergency and Ot her Relief Services
176
0.99
538.2%
145
Soft ware Publishers
157
0.45
227.6%
105
Private Households
835
0.93
198.7%
463
Elect ronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses
185
0.54
142.6%
98
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores
143
0.81
133.4%
81
Grocery and Relat ed Product Merchant Wholesalers
813
0.91
130.5%
448
Miscellaneous Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers
268
0.72
76.3%
108
Management, Scient ific, and Technical Consult ing Services
522
0.37
75.3%
172
Agriculture, Construct ion, and Mining Machinery Manufact uring 274
0.90
58.3%
87
Social Advocacy Organizations
225
0.93
56.2%
70
Management of Companies and Ent erprises
1,290
0.52
49.8%
383
Deposit ory Credit Int ermediation
2,027
0.94
47.6%
651
Scient ific Research and Development Services
253
0.32
47.2%
72
Healt h and Personal Care St ores
901
0.73
41.2%
250
Ot her Ambulat ory Health Care Services
225
0.69
39.8%
49
Ot her Support Services
297
0.83
39.3%
83
Semiconduct or and Other Elect ronic Component Manufacturing269
0.57
37.6%
91
Household Appliances and Elect rical and Electronic Goods Merchant
105 Wholesalers
0.27
35.3%
30
Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
131
0.17
33.8%
35
Ot her Schools and Instruction
281
0.67
33.0%
47
General Freight Trucking
1,012
0.89
31.1%
245
Medical and Diagnost ic Laborat ories
164
0.56
30.6%
30
Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages.
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Employment Projections by Industry
•
Total regional employment is projected to grow by 25,500 jobs between 2012 and 2022, a 14
percent increase, which is slightly less than projected statewide growth of 15 percent.
•
Construction, administrative and support services, and health care are projected to
experience the greatest percent increases in employment between 2012 and 2022 in the
region.
•
Manufacturing employment in the region is projected to increase 13 percent between 2012
and 2022, 2 percentage points higher than the statewide projection.
•
Health care, manufacturing, and construction are projected to experience the greatest
absolute increases in jobs of all industries in the region between 2012 and 2022.
•
Only one industry – federal government – is expected to experience a decrease in
employment between 2012 and 2022.
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Table 9: Regional Industry Employment Forecast, 2012-2022
Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties
2012
2022 Change
% Change
Total payroll employment
183,200 208,700 25,500
14%
Tot al private
139,400 161,400 22,000
16%
Nat ural resources and mining
14,700 16,800
2,100
14%
Mining and logging
1,300
1,500
200
15%
Const ruct ion
7,300
9,500
2,200
30%
Manufact uring
17,500 19,800
2,300
13%
Durable goods
8,600
9,800
1,200
14%
Wood product manufact uring
1,700
2,000
300
18%
Nondurable goods
8,900 10,000
1,100
12%
Food manufact uring
5,300
5,800
500
9%
Trade, t ransportat ion, and ut ilities
27,800 30,700
2,900
10%
Wholesale t rade
4,000
4,400
400
10%
Ret ail t rade
19,500 21,500
2,000
10%
Transportat ion, warehousing, and ut ilities 4,300
4,800
500
12%
Informat ion
1,200
1,200
0
0%
Financial activities
8,100
9,200
1,100
14%
Professional and business services
13,000 15,900
2,900
22%
Administrative and support services
6,300
8,000
1,700
27%
Privat e educat ional and healt h services
28,400 34,200
5,800
20%
Healt h care and social assistance
23,000 28,100
5,100
22%
Health care
19,700 24,200
4,500
23%
Leisure and hospitality
15,300 17,400
2,100
14%
Accommodat ion and food services
13,600 15,500
1,900
14%
Accommodat ion
1,200
1,200
0
0%
Ot her services
6,100
6,700
600
10%
Government
43,800 47,300
3,500
8%
Federal government
1,900
1,800
-100
-5%
Stat e government
20,800 22,000
1,200
6%
St ate education
1,600
1,800
200
13%
Local government
21,100 23,500
2,400
11%
Indian tribal
1,800
1,900
100
6%
Local educat ion
11,900 13,400
1,500
13%
Source: Oregon Employment Department
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