VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY – HOCHIMINH CITY INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS BA140IU Business Game FINAL REPORT HoChiMinh city, Vietnam 2012 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game GROUP MEMBERS: Nguyễn Văn Vinh-BAIU09491 Nguyễn Hoàng Tuấn-BA070291 Lê Thị Bích Tuyền-BAIU08233 Lê Thị Thúy Hằng-BAIU08167 Nguyễn Văn Tuấn-BAIU09448 Lại Đại Nghĩa-BAIU09462 Nguyễn Thị Lan Anh-BAIU08006 Nguyễn Hữu Hùng-BAIU08131 Đinh Hồ Quang Vinh-BAIU08079 Nguyễn Thị Kim Thanh-BAIU09220 APPROVED BY: Lecturers, 1. Phạm Hồng Hoa 2.Patrick Trần TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game I. OVERALL STRATEGY..........................................................................5 1.1 Differentiation strategy: Focusing on singles and others segments.............5 1.2 Gradually Expand To Other Segments..........................................................7 1.3 Entering Vodite Market as soon as Possible..................................................7 1.4 Focusing On Advertising and R&D ...............................................................7 II. THE GAME PROCESS ...........................................................................8 2.1 Stage 1 ...............................................................................................................8 2.1.1 Period 1 .....................................................................................................8 2.1.1.1 Overview. 2.1.1.2 Decision. 2.1.1.3 Result 2.2 Stage 2 .............................................................................................................11 2.2.1 Period 2 ...................................................................................................12 2.2.2 Period 3 ...................................................................................................14 2.2.2.1 Decision. 2.2.2.2 Result 2.3 Stage 3 .............................................................................................................19 2.3.1 Period 4 ...................................................................................................19 2.3.1.1 Market overview 2.3.1.2 Decision summary. 2.3.1.3 Result 2.3.1.4 Reflection 2.3.2 Period 5 .................................................................................................22 2.3.2.1 Market overview 2.3.2.2 Decision summary 2.3.2.3 Result 2.3.2.4 Reflection 2.4 stage 4 (Include period 6, 7, 8, 9) .............................................................25 2.4.1 Period 6 .......................................................................................................... 25 3 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game 2.4.1.1 Market share 2.4.1.2 Decision Summary 2.4.1.3 Result 2.4.1.4 Reflection. 2.4.2 Period 7 ......................................................................................................... 32 2.4.2.1 Market Overview 2.4.2.2 Decision Summary 2.4.2.3 Result 2.4.2.4 Reflection 2.4.3 Period 8 ......................................................................................................... 38 2.4.3.1 Market share 2.4.3.2 Decision Summary. 2.4.3.3 Result 2.4.3.4 Reflection 2.4.4 Period 9 ......................................................................................................... 42 2.4.4.1 Market Overview 2.4.4.2 Decision Summary 2.4.4.3 Result 2.4.4.4 Reflection II. LESSONS LEARNT ................................................................... 45 Lesson number 1 .........................................................................................................45 Lesson number 2 .........................................................................................................46 Lesson number 3 .........................................................................................................47 Lesson number 4 .........................................................................................................48 Lesson number 5 .........................................................................................................48 Lesson number 6 .........................................................................................................51 Lesson number 7 ........................................................................................................51 Lesson number 8 ........................................................................................................53 Lesson number 9: ......................................................................................................53 Lesson number 10: ....................................................................................................54 I. OVERALL STRATEGY 4 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Throughout this game we are set our overall strategy focusing on 4 main aspects: 1. Differentiation strategy: Focusing on Singles and Others segments 2. Gradually expand to other segments, depending on capacity at the time 3. Entering Vodite market as soon as possible 4. Focusing on advertising and R&D 1.1 Differentiation strategy: Focusing on singles and others segments: Base on Market forecast: single and others are two segments have the highest growth rate in the long term (5 periods), so we want to focus on those two markets MARKET FORECAST - SEGMENT SIZES AND GROWTH RATES 5 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Segment Column1 Column2 Buffs Singles Pros Hi-Earners Others Total Segment sizes in KU Actual size this period 272 264 213 199 360 1,307 Forecasted size next period 287 351 283 287 480 1,688 Forecasted size in five periods 343 1,382 643 778 1,356 4,502 Actual size this period 20.80% 20.20% 16.30% 15.20% 27.50% 100.00% Forecasted size next period 17.00% 20.80% 16.80% 17.00% 28.40% 100.00% 7.60% 30.70% 14.30% 17.30% 30.10% 100.00% 5.40% 33.20% 33.20% 44.30% 33.20% 29.10% 26.30% 424.20% 202.10% 291.00% 276.70% 244.40% 4.80% 39.30% 24.70% 31.40% 30.40% 28.10% Relative segment sizes in % Forecasted size in five periods Forecasted growth rates in % Next period Total over next five periods Average over next five periods We also look at the characteristic of our products which do not allow us to enter to high earner segment. Firm Brand A SAMA SALT SEMI SELF SIRO SIBI SOLD SONO SUSI SULI SYGU SYCA E I O U Y CHARACTERISTICS OF MARKETED SONITE BRANDS Physical characteristics Max Base Retail New or Weight Design Volume Freq Power cost price Modified (Kg) (Index) (Dm3) (KHz) (W) ($) ($) No 15 4 55 10 10 77 260 No 18 5 90 15 30 121 335 No 14 7 80 45 75 220 520 No 15 4 60 45 90 231 550 No 20 3 90 5 12 55 210 No 19 5 75 30 30 110 330 No 13 7 65 30 75 248 540 No 16 3 95 48 88 198 400 No 18 3 95 15 12 72 250 No 12 6 30 40 80 209 500 No 11 9 55 25 30 154 340 No 10 8 25 35 45 204 550 Fortunately, Market share of SIBI of period 0 is highest in single segment, so we make a guess that the current characteristic of SIBI is most suitable for this segment Since SIRO is most suitable to Others segment that is the reason why we chose these two markets. 6 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game 1.2 Gradually Expand To Other Segments. Besides focusing on two segments Singles and Others, we also want to expands and gain the market share from the other segments depending on capacity at the time by using R&D. according to the table about MARKET FORECAST SEGMENT SIZES AND GROWTH RATES above, We see that the Hi-earners segment also develop with the large percentages of growth rate. So, we will R&D the product that suitable to this segment in the next periods. 1.3 Entering Vodite Market as soon as Possible. Vodite market is called Blue Ocean market for the very fast growth rate. We want to be a first mover in this market. Being a first Mover into Vodite market, we will get some first mover advantages: Less competitors, more experience. We will focus on R&D and introduce First Vodite products as soon as possible (period 4) 1.4 Focusing On Advertising And R&D. Focus on R&D in order to meet customer’s demands. Base on the ideal value index, we will R&D the products that are same what the customer expectation to attract them and gain the market share. Advertising: We also emphasize on the advertisement to improve awareness and perception of the customers. Depending on the situation of each period such as market growth rate, inflation rate, inventory…We decide Others like price, distribution…to fit the situation. II. THE GAME PROCESS 7 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Our process is best divided into 4 stages, based on our performance throughout the game. Each stage saw a turning point in our performance (indicated by stock price index) compared to the previous stage. 2.1 Stage 1: In this first stage our group still struggled understand aspects of the game. In the first meeting not every member of the group had read the handbook, thus made it very ineffective. Due to this, we made several mistakes in this period which brought our stock price index down. 2.1.1 Period 1 2.1.1.1 Overview. As other team, Team I began with 2 brands of Sonite which are Siro and Sibi. However, each of them has different potential growth because of its characteristics.Specifically, SIBI seem to be more profitable than its product line, SIRO. In fact, SIBI acquired 10.4% market share out of 13.6% total market share of Team I in Sonite market. 8 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Market share A 12.5% Y 21.4% E 17.2% U 14.5% O 20.7% I 13.8% Recently, Sonite market is relatively big and competitive with many competitors and variety of products. Three segments can be considered as potential for future growth are Single, high Earner and Others. 2.1.1.2 Decision.With the aim of enjoy the highest growth rate in the long term (5 periods) of two segments single and others, we focus investment on those two markets. Fortunately, our two products somehow fit with these two segments thank to its common characteristics bringing the cost and price down to attract these two pricesensitive segments. Market share of SIBI of period 0 is highest in single segment while SIRO is highest in others segment 9 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game In this first period, R&D is not available for all of us, target high Earner seem to be far away our two cheap products, so giving up this fast growth may be safer for our Team. Using cost leadership strategy, we’d like to reduce the cost of investment that a reason for us to reduce our advertising spending. In order to implement this strategy we also consider the awareness our target customer toward SIBI and SIRO. The ideal outcome from the study with very high awareness of Single for SIBI and Other for SIRO has motivated us to cut our advertisement cost down. Following our strategy of cost leadership, we decrease the price of SIBI product. Moreover, our purpose of this reduction is attract customer in Single segment who are sensitive to price. For SIRO product, we want to increase a little bit in the price since SIRO price is too low in comparison to other products in Sonite market and we also want to avoid the effect of inflation so we decide to adjust the price 5% higher for this product Testing the react of market is also a purpose for one price increase and another decrease. Setting production level in the first period is one of the hard jobs for us. For SIRO product, we based on the purchase intention and market size to estimate the number of production which is about 118000 units needed. However, in order to avoid the inventory in the first period and forecast the effect of increase the price, we reduce production level to around 90000 units. As for SIBI, since we reduce the price, we believe that the market will react positively, so we decide to increase our production to meet the new demand The last decision for period 1 is distribution channel. The main distribution channel was department store (over 40%). Beside that to maximize the volume of sale, we also focused on special stores and mass merchandisers. 2.1.1.3 Result Market share Period 0 Period 1 Change 13.8% 11.6% -16.4% 10 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Shareholder value $1000 $991 -0.9% 253458U 274619U 8.35% Unit sold for SIRO 86270 67007 -22.32% Units sold for SIBI 167187 207613 24.18% Contribution 23901 29722 24.4% Unit sold Despite our effort of careful analysis, the Stock price fell to the lowest rank (Preferred to the stock price index chart). This sad news can be attributed for the volume sold of SIRO reduce 22.3% and the shortage of supply forthe brand SIBI, as a consequence, inventory cost for SIRO arise while losing potential customers for SIBI product. Lessons learnt: After this surprising result, we realize the advertising plays an important part in acquiring market share but we depreciate this role so affecting the total sale a lots. Moreover, we should consider carefully before decide to change the price because if we increase the price by 5%, its negative effect on sale could be double or even greater, so don’t underestimate the effects of price. 2.2 Stage 2 11 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game After stage 1, our team failed in the game and stock price went down to the lowest in the market. From the result of stage 1 we understood more and had experiences in playing the game. The strategy that used in period 1 was not suitable and made our performance decrease. So we decided to move in stage 2. Stage 2 include period 2 and period 3 because strategy and result were similar, moreover, R&D was available first time in the market, that why our team in the stage prepare for new project to get advantage from R&D as much as possible. 2.2.1 Period 2. At the beginning of period 2, segment Others and Singles segment also got the largest size in the firm and they really like our products. About market share, total volume sold of SIBI was 207613 units that was a big number compare with 67007 units of total volume sold of SIRO. To fulfill large demand of customer for SIBI products, SIBI production increased from 173000 units in period 1 to 300000 units in period 2. As the market size growth rate was increased 34.4%, we expected that the demand for SIRO products also increase in period 2 so our team had increased SIRO production from 90000units to 175000 units. Moreover, since SIRO was also a good segment, we wanted increase number of customers for SIRO. To make customers feel sensitive and get involve more in SIRO, the price of SIRO products had decreased from $220 to $200 in period 2. Decreasing price was also the way our firm reach others segment and singles segment. In addition, R&D was available here and from experiences in period 1, we see advertising and R&D play the importance role in business. To fix the mistake in period 1, advertising budget increased to $2000 and advertising research budget also increased to $90 for each product. In period 2, we also wanted to get 40% singles in SIBI product and 40% others in SIRO product. The customer segments was wanted to focus that was same in previous time, so the distribution channel was not changed to suitable with demand of customers 12 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Table of decision making in period 2 SIRO SIBI Production planning 125KU 300KU Retail price $200 $325 Advertising budget Advertising research budget Targeted segments Buffs Singles Professionals Hi. Earners Others $2000 $90 15 25 10 10 40 $2000 $90 20 40 10 10 20 SIRO(%) SIBI(%) Specialty stores 30 70 Department stores 33 67 13 Mass merchandisers 40 60 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game After period 2, our team got the first success in the game. Firstly that is the stock price increased from $991 to $1059 because of the positive contribution from both products. Next is units sold of SIBI increase to 273214 units. Others and singles segments also like our products by consuming highest amount of products. Because of using advertising and R&D in period 2, we success with high professional segment use our products. However, the market share decreased to 10.6% compare with 11.6% in period 2. The reason is that other firms growth very fast. The volume of our products and customer was also low in the market. Also we decreased price of SIRO in period 2 but at the end of period 2 the units sold of SIRO had decreased to 61515units. Our group thinks that because changing characteristics of SIRO product was not really fit with the customer idea value Tables and charts below show the detail of our result in period 2 Market share Stock price Retail sales Contribution Unit sold Unit of SIRO sold Unit of SIBI sold Period 1 11.6% 991 80091 29722 274619 67007 207613 Period 2 10.6% 1059 98022 36937 334729 61515 273214 2.2.2 Period 3 14 Change -7.9% 6.8% 22.4% 24.3% 21.7% -8.2% 31.6% VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game In period 3, the increasing of market size of our total products as well as Sonite is stronger than two previous periods. Particularly, market size of Total increases from about 230 KU to about 330 KU. And with Sonite, market size increases a little less than Total, about 300 KU. Moreover, since we started a new project – starting R&D products in period 2, after a deep study about customers’ need and current market, there is appearance of Vodite market in this period. The total growth rate of our products is about 43% while Sonite market only grows at the rate of 36%, less 7% than total growth rate in the third period. Similarly as the two first periods, the market size of two segmentations (Others and Singles) increased well, continued to be leaders among five segmentation. These segmentations grown with the high rate and dominated in Sonite market (Others was over 800 KU and Single was over 750 KU). However, there was a small change between High Earners and Professionals segmentation. Market size of High Earners increased from about 430 KU to about 540 KU, but market size of Professionals had a strong increasing, from about 250 KU to nearly 590 KU. Therefore, they converted their position in market size in this period. 15 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game 2.2.2.1 Decision. Besides keeping the same price of SIRO and SIBI products as two previous periods ($200 for SIRO and $325 for SIBI), we decided to reduce production planning of SIRO brand from 125 KU down to 20 KU. The first reason is that we found reaction of customer with this kind of products was not good, that led to reducing of our market share. Another important reason is that we intended to withdraw SIRO next period because its characteristics didn’t fit customers’ need. So, we need to keep SIRO inventory as low as possible. And since we also had high SIRO inventory of previous periods, we just produced only 20 KU in this period. However, forecasting high purchasing intention in SIBI product, we add 50 KU in production planning that means production planning for SIBI was 350 KU in this period.Besides, market growth which was nearly 44% was also our advantage to increase SIBI production planning. 16 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game In addition, knowing how important advertisement is, advertising budget was increased to $2000 in both products to support better in sales and awareness of customers. Although we keep the same total advertising research budget at price of $ 90, we changed a bit in targeted segments. Particularly, our potential market segmentations are Single and Others. Therefore, the costs of advertising research budget for two segmentations were much more than three other ones (Buffs, Professional, and Hi.Earners). To make R&D Vodite product appear in market, since we didn’t have much money in budget, we decided to take loan to start producing. So, we could enter Blue Ocean market as soon as possible and enjoy the advantages such as few competitors, high growth rate, etc. This table below includes our PVIDI products’ characteristics (autonomy, max Freq, Diameter, Design, weight, base cost). The index of each characteristic in this product is developed from the combination of both deep research in customers’ demand as well as market’s condition and information based on innovator characteristics. 2.2.2.2 Result 17 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game As a result, our stock price increased thank to contribution of SIBI product. Besides, effects of advertising and targeting right segmentation were also other important reasons. We decided to keep advertising budget at $2000 to attract more new customers as well as intensify our current customers’ awareness and loyalty. And deep understanding our products and our customers’ need was also one 18 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game of the most advantages to target rightsegmentation. 2.3 Stage 3 A breakthrough! This is the most successful stage for us, as we saw our stock price index jumped to the second place and maintained it for the whole stage. This is also the stage that we started to explore Vodite market. 2.3.1Period 4 2.3.1.1 Market overview Market share (SONITE) MARKET SEGMENT SIZE (SONITE) SIRO 2% SIBI 11% Other brands 87% 19 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game For Sonite market, we have 2 main brands but our market share is pretty small. They just capture 13% in total: Sibi 11% and Sida 2%. In term of segmentation, Single people is the fastest growth segment and take the biggest percentage, the other segmentations like othetrs and high earners also in way of fast growing. 2.3.1.2 Decision summary.The first thing we did in this period was to enter Vodite market: We introduced VIDI. The reason behind this move is, as stated before, we wanted to be among the first firms to enter this potential market in order to capture the advantages of the first mover. Although in this situation we were no longer the first mover (the first mover was team Y) still being the “second mover” brought us many benefits: the market was still not very crowded, thus competition was not fierce; growth rate was high. These encouraged us to make the move. Since this was the first period we decided to target VIDI at innovators segment, then we would change to other segments in later periods. The second important decision was to withdraw product SIRO, replacing it with SIDA and to modify product SIBI, basing upon the R&D projects we did in the previous periods. We targeted SIDA at Others and the modified SIBI at Singles. The reasons for this action are: - As for modifying SIBI: We simply tried to match the product better with Singles segment, and at that time advertising alone would not be sufficient. - As for replacing SIRO with SIDA: We tried to match the product better with Others segment. However unlike the case of SIBI at the beginning of the period SIRO’s characteristics were too far away from the ideal points of Others, thus we decided that it would take too long to bring customers’ perception from the initial point to where we wanted. Therefore, we decided to simply give up on SIRO and started it over with a new product: SIDA. - As a result of the modification of SIBI we believed that the change would cause the demand of SIBI to increase therefore we also decided to raise its production. We also decided to increase its advertising to inform customers about the new modification. 2.4.1.3 Result 20 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game 21 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game - In this period we have a big change in stock price (1080 in period 3, 1729 in period 4 – increase 649). - Total market share: increase 86,6% - Retail sales: increase by 148.1% - Stock price index: Increase by 60% 2.3.1.4 Reflection It can be seen clearly that this period was a great success to us, as our stock price index increased substantially, and we jumped to the second position. The reasons behind that success was very simple: Our product portfolio decisions, as a whole, were very effective. VIDI were a huge success, as the market was just as promising as we expected. The modification of SIBI was also successful, as sales grew greatly. SIDA had not made a profit yet this period. However in later periods it would turn out that we made a correct decision with this product. 2.3.2 Period 5 2.3.2.1 Market overview Market share (SONITE) SIBI 11% MARKET SEGMENT SIZE (SONITE) SIDA 2% Other brands 87% 22 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game For Sonite market, we have 2 main brands but our market share is pretty small. They just capture 13% in total: Sibi 11% and Sida 2%. In term of segmentation, Single people is the fastest growth segment and take the biggest percentage, the other segmentations like othetrs and high earners also in way of fast growing. Market share (VODITE) MARKET SEGMENT SIZE (VODITE) VIDI 33% Other For Sodice market, the only brand Vidi did a good job when it takes a brands 67% certain proportion 33% of the market. The segment Followers appears as the rapidly growing and is a crucial customer for the market. 2.3.2.2Decision summary. Two decisions were the most important to us in this period: Adjusting production of SIBI and SIDA, and changing the target of VIDI. - Increasing SIBI production an decreasing production of SIDA: This was simply a reaction to the previous period’s sales. With SIBI due to the increase in sales in the last period we expected sales this period to keep increasing. With SIDA we decided to lower its production due to its high inventory. - Changing the target of VIDI to followers: Although the introduction of VIDI to Vodite market was a great success, and we got big shares in innovators segment, the biggest segment in this market was actually Followers. In the previous period we had to target Innovators because it was the first time we entered this market, and as explained in the handbook the other segments would not buy the product if innovators had not bought it first. 2.3.2.3 Result 23 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Compare with the period 4, in this period, stock price increase 485 (1729 in period 4, 2214 in period 5). Total market share: decrease 5% Retail sales: increase by 49.9% Stock price index: Increase by 28.1% 2.3.2.4 Reflection 24 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game In this period we still benefited from our actions in period 3. The growth of Vodite market ensured our sales. In short, we were getting our high investment from period 3 back. The blue ocean was proving to be very profitable for us. However in terms of market share the result was not very good at all. Although we decided to target innovators segment we did not compete very well with group Y (particularly in price). At the same time since we targeted Followers we left Innovators and adaptors undefended, thus when group U entered this market we lost some market shares to them. 2.4 stage 4 (Include period 6, 7, 8, 9) This is the last stage of our performance. Unfortunately we did not perform very well here, dropping from second place at period 5 to fourth place at the end of the game. 1.4.1 Period 6 2.4.1.1 Market share SONITE MARKET SIBI SIDA Other brands 9% 89% 25 2% VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game For Sonite market, we have 2 main brands but our market share is pretty small. They just capture 11% in total: Sibi 9% and Sida 2%. In term of segmentation, 26 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game single people is the fastest growth segment and take the biggest percentage, the other segmentations like othetrs and high earners also in way of fast growing. VIDI Others 20% 80% For Sodice market, the only brand Vidi did a good job when it takes a certain proportion 20% of the market. The segment Followers appears as the rapidly growing and is a crucial customer for the market. This was also the first period that our group reached the maximum budget limit. 27 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game 2.4.1.2 Decision Summary In this period we decided to launch a new R&D project, aiming to exploit the remaining sonite market. We found Buff (Sonite market) as a very interesting segment. Although in the long term this segment had the least growth compared to others in the market apparently other groups thought so too and thus they did not bother entering this market, except group E whose product fit with this segment from the beginning. Therefore, competition in this segment would be much less intense than other segments, with group E being our only potential competitor. Moreover, since customers in this segment demand less from their products than segments such as high earners or professionals the cost of R&D in this market should be lower. Therefore our group decided to challenge group E head on and launched a new R&D project called SIKE. 28 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Physical Characteristics Name Weight Design Base Cost $ Volume Max Freq Power Minimum Current (Kg) (Index) (Dm3) (KHz) (W) 15 5 49 42 84 PSIKE realistic 282 282 Another important decision by our group in this period was that when we looked back at the previous periods we observed that the increase in our sales force and advertisement did not match with the growth in our production. Moreover, with the great increase in budget we then had enough money and decided to utilize that money to increase our market shares.Therefore, we decided to increase the salesforce by 68% as well as a greatly increase advertisement budget. For the rest, we allocate the resourse as following: Period 6 Price Production SIBI 325 159-173 SIDA 220 100-90 VIDI 750-650 500-700 Advertisement Market target 3000-3500 3500-4000 4000- Single Others Followers 5000 VIVU 700 400 29 5000 Innovators VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Specialty store Department Mass SIBI 12 20 25 SIDA 5 10 13 VIDI 33 20 16 VIVU 24 10 7 2.4.1.3 Result 1 Stock price: 2112 , reduce 102( compare period 5 ) 2 Total market share: reduce 7,8% 3 Total market share reduce by 7.8% 4 Volume sold: SIBI increase 51,4%, SIDA increase 154,4%, VIVU reduce 4,6% 5 Market shares: SIBI increase 8,1%, SIDA increase 4,2%, VIVU reduce 12,9% 6 Net contribution: SIBI increase 57,1%, SIDA increase 104,7%, VIVU reduce 34,1% 30 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game 2.4.1.4 Reflection.The period was clearly a failure of ours. We believe the followings were the primary reasons behind this: Our group’s inventory made a huge jump this period. As reported, we are the company who had the highest inventory cost in the market. Most of the inventory was VIDI. The reason for this was because of our ineffective strategy compared to group Y, our only competitor at that time in Vodite market. While our VIDI’s price was, by far, not matched with demand from followers segment we wrongly decided to aim it at this segment and could not compete with Y. To make things worse, we were so confident in the success of this move, mostly due to the unbelievable growth rate of followers segment we decided to greatly raised VIDI production. The result was clear: We produced a lot and sold a little, which led to high inventory. We failed to anticipate and capture the incredibly fast growing others and singles shares. This resulted from the fact that we did not pay enough attention to our competitors’ action. In this case, again it was group Y’s action that we failed to account for. Later we discovered that in this period group Y left Sonite market, thus leaving lots of room for other firms to grow. A correct response to this would be to increase sales to fill the vacancy left by Y, which would greatly increase sales and market shares. However, since our group did not see this we missed this great opportunity. 31 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game All in all lead to a poor use budget and quite low return on investment. 1.4.1 Period 7 Period 7, the in-class contest, is a big event. Our group really wanted to get the budget bonus, and we were confident that if we could at least keep the pace of the previous periods there it would be possible for us to win the contest. The preparation for this period had already begun in period 6, when we made various moves that would ensure our victory in period 7 (or so we thought). So, to better prepare for the period in period 6 we did the following: R&D a new Sonite product, SIKE, with the aim to introduce it in period 7. Apart from the purpose mentioned above this was also a direct challenge to team E, which was the team right below us in terms of stock price index in period 6. - In order to have deeper understanding of the other group’s actions to improve our decision making in period 7 we decided to purchase 2 studies that we had never purchased before: Competitive advertising and competitive sales force. - In terms of group work before the contest our group decided to split the group into two halves: one would play Sonite and the other would be responsible for Vodite market. This 32 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game was because to the time constraint of the in-class contest. We hoped that this would help us save time for making decisions. 2.4.2.1 Market Overview SIBI SIDA Other brands 17% 6% 77% 33 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game For Sonite market, the performance was in well progress. Brand Sibirose from 9% to 17% and brand Sidi rose from 2% to 6%. In the segmentation, there was a significant reduction of Single and High earners after they reached their peak point. Professional kept growing while the Others reduced slightly. VODICE MARKET VIDI VIVU Other brands 2% 7% 91% 34 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game For Vodice market, we only captured a small proportion in total with two brands, decline from 20% to 9%, 7% and 2% respectively for Vidi and Vivu. Follower still grew steeply, dominating aggressively the others. 2.4.2.2 Decision Summary SIKE was available in this period so we decided to proceed with our plan and introduced the product to the market, aiming at Buff. As for Vodite market, we decided to try to gain back our position in this market. However we were not patient enough to wait for another period for a R&D project. Instead we decided to immediately launch two new Vodite products: VISO and VITU, both based on the characteristics of VIDI. We aimed these two new products at Followers. The reason for this choice, firstly, as stated above, was because we were not patient enough to wait for another period for a R&D project; secondly, compared to VIVU VIDI were more successful, with less cost. For those reasons we thought it would be appropriate to base our new product upon VIDI. This was merely a short term effort. However we also realized that while VIDI had least cost compared to others in our production line, its cost was still significantly higher than those products of group Y, our current direct competitor in this market. Therefore in order to really compete with Y in the long run we decided to launch another R&D project, aiming at cost reduction, called VIGI. Physical Characteristics Name Autonomy (M) PVIDI 75 PVIVU 75 PVIGI 75 Max Freq (KHz) 14 14 14 Base Cost $ Diameter Design Weight (Mm) (Index) (Kg) Current Minimum realistic 64 40 64 533 608 493 493 538 493 6 7 6 55 55 55 The table below summarizes resources allocation in this period: 35 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Period 7 Price Production Advertisement SIBI 325 150-173 3500 Market target Single SIDA 220 100-90 4000 Others SIKE 450 150 2000 Buff VIDI 650 300 4000 Followers VIVU 700 0 3500 Follower VISO 580 200 2000 Follower VITU 600 180 2000 Followers Specialty store Department Mass SIBI 10 22 24 SIDA 5 13 16 SIKE 3 6 5 VIDI 22 18 10 VIVU 22 14 7 VISO 4 5 3 VITU 4 5 5 2.4.2.3 Result 36 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Stock price :2285,increase 172( compare period 6 ) Total market share: reduce 26,9% Volume sold: SIBI increase 63.6%, SIDA increase 50%, SIKE(newly introduced products) increase 100%, VIDI reduce 14,6%, VIVU increase 20,7%, VISO (newly introduced products) increase 100%, VITU (newly introduced products) increase 100% Market shares: SIBI reduce 0,8%, SIDA reduce 0,8%, SIKE (newly introduced products) increase 100%,VIDI reduce 4,1%, VIVU reduce 12,9%, VISO (newly introduced products) increase 100%, VITU (newly introduced products) increase 100% Net contribution: SIBI increase 57,1%, SIDA increase 104,7%, SIKE (newly introduced products) increase 100%, VIVI reduce 34,1%, VIVU increase 16,8%,VISO (newly introduced products) increase 100%, VITU(newly introduced products) increase 100% 2.4.2.4 Reflection We were too rush in our decision to introduce VISO and VITU, epspecially our decision to target them immediately at Followers segment. We forgot what it said in the handbook “Followers will only use a product after Innovators and Adopters had used it” and thus did not spend enough effort on these two segments. To make things worse, we failed to 37 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game anticipate group E’s enter this new market. Their enter effectively brought our shares in Innovators and Adoptors down, which in turns hurted our shares in Followers. All of our Vodite products were priced too high compared to our competitors, and too far away from our targeted segment, Followers. This was bad because price was the most important attribute with Followers, and other groups beated us in it. Our Sike was poorly advertised. We made a silly mistake here by forgeting to set the perceptual objective for it. The result was that SIKE only got 0.3% of market shares in Buff. 2.4.3Period 8 2.4.3.1 Market share SONITE MARKET VODITE MARKET Chart Title 5.30 16.00 0.10 3%1%1% 0% SIBI VIDI SIDA VIVU SIKE 78.60 VISO others VITU 95% OTHERS Our market share in both market had decline gradually. That total small part had devided into smaller piece for each brand. This was most cearly seen in Vodite market. 2.4.3.2 Decision Summary. After 2 continous period with ineffective performance of many brands, as this period we came up with many tough decision which reduced the cost and enduced the efficientcy and the effectiveness. Withdrawing VISO: VISO, along with VITU, were two short-term strategy products that we introduced in period 7. In turned out that this move was a failure as both products 38 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game failed to capture enough market shares and had negative contribution so we decided to withdrew them from the market to prevent further loss. However at that moment our group were a little bit undecicive and did not have the courage to withdraw both products. To us it sounded like admiting our defeat, so instead we only decided to withdraw the product with more negative contribution, which was VISO. As for VITU, we observed that the negative contribution were not very serious, and its contribution before marketing were still positive, we decided to keep it and tried to improve the situation instead by lower its marketing budget. We also decided to reduce SIKE, VIVU and VITU. This was because we still got high inventory for those products, so we wanted to sell out the inventory first. BENCHMARKING – ESTIMATED OVERALL PERFORMANCE Unit A K$ -12 E I O U Y Inventory holding cost -6,141 -13,513 -2,632 -4,866 -1 We also decided that, despite the last period’s cost reduction R&D the cost was still too high, therefore lowered our profit as well as prevented us from pricing lower in order to compete with other groups. For that reason in this period we decided to lauhcn yet another R&D project, aiming at lowering the cost. Physical Characteristics Name Auton Max omy Freq (M) (KH z) Diameter Design Weight (Mm) (Index) (g) Base Allocated Cost$ BudgetK$ Current Minimum realistic Cumulative PVIDI 75 14 64 6 55 594 550 10,000 PVDI1* 75 15 70 7 90 434 434 8,000 39 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game The table below summarizes our brand management decision in this period: Perio Producti Change d8 in ge in ent ge in segment producti price ad on Price Chan Advertisem Chan Target on P7 P8 90 150 0 0 SID 30 600 A 0 SIK 15 E 0 VIDI 30 SIBI 5 400 67% 100% -97% 33% 0 VIV 20 U 0 60 -70% P7 P8 32 36 5 5 22 24 0 5 45 50 0 0 65 63 0 0 70 70 0 0 P7 P8 12% 3500 3000 -14% Singles 11% 4000 3000 -25% Others 11% 2000 2000 0% Buffs -3% 4000 3000 -25% Followe rs 0% 3500 3000 -14% Early Adopter s & Followe r VIS WIHTDRAW O VIT 18 U 0 70 -61% 60 65 0 0 8% 2000 1500 -25% Early Adopter s 2.4.3.3 Result 40 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Stock price: 2798, increase 513 Total market share: reduce 14,2% Volume sold: SIBI increase 8,9%,SIDA increase 0,0%,VIDI increase 53,7%, VIVU increase 1,6%,VITU increase 16,7% Market shares: SIBI reduce 4,2%, SIDA reduce 1,7%, SIKE reduce 0,1%, VIDI increase 0,7%, VIVU reduce 0,2%, VISO reduce 100%, VITU increase 0% Net contribution: SIKE ,VIVU ,VITU Low market share, negative contribution 2.4.3.4 Reflection We suffered a lot of loss in this period, including: + Withdrawn VISO :The obsolete inventories were sold to a trading company at 80.0 % of transfer cost->an exceptional cost of K$6371) 41 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game + 142000 units of brand VIDI's inventory were sold to a trading company at 80.0 % of transfer cost->inventory disposal loss of K$6949. + 115000 units of brand VITU's inventory were sold to a trading company at 80.0 % of transfer cost->inventory disposal loss of K$5628. We were to pessimistic about VIDI’s situation, miscalculating its next period’s sale and thus we sold all of its inventory and did not produce enough. This led to us not having enough products to sell, losing potential profit and market shares to our competitors. On the bright side, although our market shares reduced, due to out bad decision making, our sales still increased, due to the overall increase of market size, both in Sonite and Vodite market. 2.4.5 Period 9 2.4.5.1 Market Overview SONITE MARKET VODITE MARKET 3.9 10.3 11.8 3.6 0 VIDI SIBI VIVU SIDA VITU SIKE OTHERS OTHERS 84.6 94.8 2.4.5.2 Decision Summary: As this was the last period there would be no long-term strategy for this. All of the things we did here were to increase stock price as much as possible at the end of the period. 42 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game The first significant decision was to modified brand VIDI, based on R&D project VDI1. The aim of this was to reduce the cost, and thus, the price of the product in order to capture more market shares. In an attempt to increase total net contribution, and thus, stock price index, we decided to withdraw all products that had negative contribution in this period, which included SIKE, VIVU and VITU. This action left us with only 3 remaining products: SIBI, SIDA and VIDI. We also decided to invest more into these 3 remaining products by increasing its advertising budget. The table below summarized our decisions made in this period. Period 9 Price Production Advertisement Market target SIBI 360 1500 3000-3500 Single & Others SIDA 245 500 4000-3500 Others VIDI 630-550 800 3000-4000 Followers 2.4.5.2 Result 43 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game 1. Stock price:2602, reduce 196( compare period 8 ) 2. Total market share: reduce 30,8% 3. Volume sold: SIBI increase 37,2%, SIDA reduce 37,5%, VIDI reduce 11,7% 4. Market shares: SIBI increase 1,4%, SIDA reduce 1,8%, VIDI reduce 1,4% 5. Net contribution: SIBI increase 35,63%, SIDA reduce 64%, VIDI reduce 11,1%, 2.4.5.3 Reflection.There were 4 main reasons for our failure in this last period: 1. High inventory holding cost: Despite our effort we still failed to deal with inventory problem. In particular, although we desperately sold all invetory in the last period, our forecasting for this period was wrong, which lead to us adjusting production incorrectly, which in turn left us with high inventory again. 2. Growth rate of both market is low: In the last periods while our market shares decreased we still benefited from the overall increase of market size, thus while our market shares reduced sales never stopped increasing. Unfortunately for us in this period the growth rate of both market slowed down, making our sales in both market reduced. 3. Despite our best effort the price of our VIDI were still higher than other competitors in the market, and far away from our targeted customer’s ideal value point. This was due to our failure to significantly reduce the cost of production. The reason behind this was because although we tried to reduce cost by using R&D, at the same time inflation raised the cost. Worse, while other succesful groups (for example group Y) benefited from extensive production, which caused economics of scale bringing thee cost down, our group, in an attempt to control inventory, always kept our production low. 4. The decision to withdraw the products with negative contribution was a huge blunder. Although we did manage to keep our net contribution high the fact 44 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game that we withdrew many products left room for our competitors to grow. Again we failed to take competitors into account when making decision. III. LESSONS LEARNT Throughout this game our group made lots of decisions, good and bad. Regardless of how a decision turned out to be it taught us lots of things. In this section we will discuss the lessons we have learnt throughout this game. We hope that this will not only help ourselves, but also will be valuable for other groups who will take this course in the future. Lesson number 1: Advertising and R&D are keys to success The very first lesson that our group learnt is very simple: the importance and power of advertising and R&D to your success. We learnt about the lesson of advertising after the first period. As mentioned above in the first period in an attempt to lower the cost our group foolishly decided to lower advertisement budget, while other groups increase theirs (this although we did not purchase the industry benchmarking we knew by discussing with our friends in other groups). The result was devastating, as we dropped to the bottom of the market. Fortunately we learnt this in time and were able to improve the situation in the following periods. Of course, good advertising does not only mean throwing lots and lots of money into your budget, but also means knowing where to put your money (i.e. distributing the budget among the segments) and knowing the right message to communicate to customers (i.e. choosing the perceptual objectives). While we in fact did consider these two factors during the game, unfortunately only after the game had been over we learnt that our effort was still not good enough( we learnt this again by discussing with friends from other groups). In particular, when distributing advertising budget, while 45 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game we did try to have a focus on our target segments, the focus simply was not strong enough (when we discussed with the winning teams we learnt that the focus was really strong in their case, sometimes they may target 100% or their budget at target segment). On big mistake: We did not read the handbook carefully enough and missed the information on the usefulness of advertising research (which improves the effectiveness of your advertisement) and therefore throughout the periods we did not invest in this, neither did we pay any attention to it. The result, as revealed in the industry benchmarking when we actually purchased it (this is another issue which will be discussed later) was that over time our advertising effectiveness become poorer, despite us continuously increasing advertisement budget. R&D is also very important, if not even more important than advertising. However, unlike advertising, which would have immediate effect, R&D required 1 or 2 periods to really take effect. However, the benefit brought from R&D, if executed perfectly, is much more than what advertising may bring. We learnt this from our success with our R&D, especially the first Vodite product, VIDI, and the modification we did with SIBI and SIDA, both turned out to be great success. Lesson number 2: Knowledge is power The second is very simple: In order to win the first thing you need is completed and correct information. This may sound basic but is actually one of our group’s biggest mistakes throughout the game. Almost throughout the 9 periods of playing the game we only purchased the most basic studies, for example consumer survey or semantic/multi-dimensional scaling, while leaving out many important studies, such as conjoint analysis, industry benchmarking, advertising/ sales force experiment. Sadly we only learnt the usefulness of these studies in the last period, when Professor Patrick sent us all the studies for period 9, which was too late for us. This means that throughout the 9 periods we had to guess a lot, and many of them, sadly, were wrong. Without industry benchmarking it was really hard to understand what the competitors were doing, and also we could not learn anything 46 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game from our competitors. Without conjoint analysis we did not really know what customers paid attention to the most in the products (although the semantic scale did help us a little in this regard). Without experiments we did not really understand how and how much to set up our advertising or sales force. What we usually did was, whenever we wanted to change our budget or something we only guessed the amount( “Ok in the last period I think we did not advertise enough, so I think this period we should increase the budget by, let’s see, $1000 sounds fine to me, anyone disagree?”) Had we decided to buy these studies we are sure we should have performed a lot better. Lesson number 3: Always keep track of competitors’ action This is, to some extent, part of the previous lesson. Although we could somehow guessed competitors’ actions based on the most basic studies (for example, market share or semantic scale) it was certainly not sufficient. Only after we had purchased the industry benchmarking and then competitive advertising/ sale forces that we realized the usefulness of these studies. Sadly, even after we have purchased those studies we still made mistake by not paying enough attention to them, but instead most of the time we still kept basing on the basic information to make decisions. This was especially true in the in-class context, when the time pressure did not allow us to look at every detail in the report. In particular, there are two specific cases that best illustrate this lesson for us: The first situation was in period 6. That was when group Y decided to leave Sonite market in order to focus on Vodite. Naturally this should have been a great chance for other groups in Sonite market, as it would leave a lot of market shares for them to exploit. The correct response to such a situation would be to increase production to keep up with the sudden growth in customers’ demand. As it turned out, customers’ demand (expressed by purchase intention) increased substantially. Unfortunately as our group could not notice this change we did not made the correct adjust to our production. The result was that, although customers’ demand increased, our production could not keep up with that and we lost 47 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game lots of potential profit, and more importantly, we lost market shares to other groups, especially group O, who was fully aware of the situation. Another case was when we failed to react to group E’s movement when they attempted to enter the Vodite market. This was a big mistake from us as at that point in time our group did purchase the industry benchmarking, and based on the sudden jump in group E’s R&D budget we was aware of group E’s ambitious to enter Vodite market. However, eventually we forgot about that (this again had to do with the pressure of period 7’s in-class context). The result was that we lost a fair amount of market shares in Innovators segment to group E. Lesson number 4: The market does not stay the same over time When we first R&D our Sonite products we based the characteristics of the project on customer’s ideal value at the same period, while what we should have done instead was that we should have based the characteristics of the project on the period that we planned to introduce the product. The result of this was that our product did not meet the target segments’ ideal value, which resulted in the reduction of effectiveness of the first Sonite R&D. In fact, our first Sonite R&D did not produce the result that we aimed for. In particular, the purpose of project SIBI2 was to modify SIBI to improve segment Single’s perception toward this product. However, after the modification SIBI’s shares in Singles segment reduced by 5%. Fortunately for us, while ideal points of Singles changed, so did those of the other segments, especially Others. Just by luck, the modified characteristics of SIBI met the ideal value of Others segment, which then increased its shared in Others by 3%. In total, SIBI’s shares increased by 19.4% (but again this was pure luck rather than us making a right decision). In short, the lesson we learnt here was: Always look into the future, rather than the present. Lesson number 5: Best product sometimes are not enough, it is the product that best satisfy customers’ demand that will prevail 48 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game This is a rather interesting story for us. By best product here we mean the product that has all of the characteristics regarding quality perfectly match with customers’ ideal points. We got such a product with PVDI1. Compared with the market leader at that time, we actually got a better product than them, in terms of quality: Firm Brand Autonomy Max Freq Diameter Design Weight Retail Base cost price I VIDI 75 14 64 6 55 425 750 Y VYTO 75 14 70 6 100 369 407 Looking at the above table, it can be observed that VIDI and VYTO got pretty much the same characteristics but diameter and weight. Looking at the perceptual maps below, it can also be observed that in terms of diameter and weight we got a better product than Y. Overall in terms of quality we did a better job than Y. However it turned out that VYTO was more successful than VIDI. The reason for this was because of the difference in the price. In terms of price VYTO fit better with customers’ demand than our VIDI. 49 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game But customers value price much more than diameter and weight, by looking at the conjoint analysis table below, which illustrated the importance of various product’s characteristics toward customers: Segment Autonomy Max Freq Diameter Price Total Innovators 21.80% 34.10% 3.20% 40.80% 100.00% Adopters 16.50% 35.40% 2.60% 45.50% 100.00% Followers 18.30% 29.60% 3.00% 49.20% 100.00% It can be observed that, to customers price is the most importance characteristics, much more important than diameter (weight wasn’t even in the table).We satisfied customers in terms of diameter/weight, but lost in terms of price. But price matters more to customers than diameter or weight, so ultimately we lost. It was not that we did not know about the importance of price; however our mistake was that we failed to take price into account when launching the VIDI R&D. We tried to make a perfect product, but that ambition proved to be our undoing, as a better product meant a higher cost and ultimately, a higher price. If we had a chance to play it again we would sacrifice diameter and weight in order to reduce the cost, and thus, the price of the product. This was really a costly lesson for us. 50 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Lesson number 6: Sacrifice short term benefits for long term gain: The next lesson actually came from what we did right. Again this is related to R&D. In the first Vodite R&D at first our group was undecided as to whether we really wanted to invest that much money into this project, as the amount required exceeded the budget and we had to borrow money. Back then our group was really concerned about two things: our ability to pay off the debt in the future and our stock price at the time. At first we were afraid that Looking back at the game now we believe that in terms of decision making stage 2, instead of stage 3, is the most successful. In stage 2 not only we were able to fix the errors we made in period 1 and learnt more about playing the game, the decisions we made in that period also greatly benefited us in the long run. In stage 3 we merely benefited from the correct decisions made in stage 2. Lesson number 7: Teamwork: There are two phases in our teamwork during the 9 periods of the game: Before and after the midterm presentation. Before the midterm presentation our group was divided into two subgroups: + The “play” sub-group, which consists of 4 members: This group is responsible for playing the game. + The “work” sub-group, which consists of 6 members: This group’s primary task is to prepare for the midterm presentation. This system worked well for us, as we were able to prepare for the presentation as early as the course started, while the size of the “play” subgroup proved to be ideal, as we were able to both came up with many options and made decision quickly. After the midterm presentation our group again was divided into 2 subgroups: + 1 sub-group is responsible for playing Vodite market 51 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game +1 sub-group is responsible for playing Sonite market At this point the system we used in the first half of the course proved to be a problem after the midterm presentation, as members from the “work” sub-group then did not really understand the game and the strategies of the team, and we did not paying much attention to explaining to them those things. Although we tried to put 2 of the members of the old “play” group in each of the new sub-group so that they could guide the other members it turned out that most of the time it was the old members who did most of the job while the other members were confused. Things got worse as in the final presentation and report required members to fully understand the game the group’s performance clearly. Our group tried to solve this by again dividing the work: the old members of the “work” group would be mainly responsible for describing the figures and process only, while the old members of the “play” group would be responsible for explaining the strategies and reasons behind decisions or results. Still during the process this caused a lot of confusion and misalignment between members’ work, which took us quite some time to solve. The lessons here: We should have let all members involve in the decision making process, or at least should have spent more time explaining to them. Another lesson was that all members should understand clearly all aspects of the game. This was not the case in our group. At the first period not all members had read the handbook thus in our first meeting most of the time was wasted on explaining things in the handbook to each other. The result was clear: We were the worst group in period 1. Fortunately as the game proceeded members started to read the book and understood the game more. However as the game approached the last periods a new problem emerged, as each member of the group started to specialized in a specific task (for example, one member was specialized in making sale force decision, the other was specialized in making advertisement decision, etc.). In principle this may sound like good practice however it turned out that each member only focused on his or her task only and did not pay much attention to the others. This resulted in the lack of criticism on each others’ work in meetings, which reduced the effectiveness of our decisions. 52 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game In short, the lesson here is: Each member has to be aware of the big picture, and understand all aspects of the game. Lesson number 8: How to deal with inventory: This is also a valuable experience we learnt from playing the game. One of our group motto is we are willing the sacrifice inventory (that means we are willing to hold lots of inventory) rather than losing market shares. This means that when setting the production for the next period we were willing to produce a little bit more than the forecasted demand of the market to make sure that we would be able to capture all the potential growth of the market, rather than playing it safe. Fortunately for us in the first periods our prediction of market demand was rather correct, thus we were able to keep our inventory low. However later in the game, particularly after period 5 we were usually overoptimistic about our sales, which resulted in a huge inventory. There were many options to solve that issue. The most obvious option would be to sell the entire inventory. However this would be the last thing that we would like to do, as it would mean a definite lost for us. Another option, which was what we usually did, was to keep inventory to sell in later periods. The first step in this process was to correctly forecast the sales in the next period (which was what we did wrong). Then we calculated the next period production by using the formula: production= sales-inventory. That way the inventory of the previous period would be sold in the next period, and no further cost would occur. However there was an opportunity cost for this method, as this would reduce production for next period. As explained by Professor Patrick in the Markstrat world economy of scale would cause cost of production to reduce, which would greatly increase profit. Unfortunately this was what we failed to consider. Lesson number 9: Knowing your strength and weaknesses, focusing on what most profitable 53 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game Throughout this game although our group knew what produce was the most profitable/potential for us, we failed to take that into our consideration. Therefore, instead of focusing on those products we tended to distribute our budget equally among our products, which was sometimes a rather waste of resources. Lesson number 10: There was no most favored group at the start of the game There is no most favored group at the start of the game. What decides the winner of this game is not market share, but stock price index, and at the start of the game stock price index of all groups were equal. It does not matter how much market share a company has at the beginning, but rather how much more market share they will capture during the game. There are many factors that affect the end result of the game, all of them translating into a group’s ability in playing the game: - A successful group must have good teamwork, with every member being really serious about playing the game - A successful group must fully understand the game from the start, including how to read the reports, how to make decisions in the game - A successful group must understand the basic concepts of marketing/finance/accounting, etc. - A successful group must learn from their mistakes and learn from other groups - A successful group must always pay attention to other groups’ action and react accordingly - A successful group must be willing to take the risk 54 VNU – International University School of Business Administration BA140IU Business Game The end 55
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