Progress Update
June 2017
Niall Cussen
Chief Planner DHPCLG
1. Progress
2. Trends
3. Questions
4. Policies
5. Aims
1. Process So Far…
Roadmap
Preliminary Stakeholder Consultation
Stakeholder and Sectoral Consultation
Briefings, Conferences & Events
Position Paper & Website
Initial National Public Consultation
Options and Scenarios
Draft NPF & Further Consultation
Public Consultation
Initial public consultation process - Ireland 2040 ‘Issues and Choices’ paper.
c3,300 submissions to 31st March – c.660 specific to NPF.
Children’s art competition: Over 3000 entries from 255 schools across the
country. Presentation for winning entries took place last month
Public Consultation
Submissions by Broad Stakeholder Group
Agriculture and rural
Arts
Built heritage
20 74 9 7 6
46
Business & Chambers
57
City Town Regional Group
Community Group
14
46
24
Construction and Property
11
11
46
32
Cross Border & NI
Education Sector
Elected Members and Political Parties
Enterprise and Employment
69
Environment and SEA
Gov Agencies & Depts
197
4 19
11
3
16
Health, Wellbeing, Sport
Housing
Individual
Infrastructure
Local Authorities & RA's
Planning and related professionals
Submission Themes / Messages
Many local /geographically specific issues but…
• Governance: We need better consistency and collaboration across all levels of
government in achieving agreed national and regional development outcomes.
• Regional development: Our cities are crucial for regional development working
with our towns and villages outside cities.
• Environment, health and planning: A major focus for public consultation
responses – communities much more aware now of links between form of
development, travel options and healthier living.
• National Infrastructure: Co ordination of national infrastructure investment and
place making. Broadband; integrated public transport systems between
cities and towns/airports
Submission Themes / Messages
• Built Environment: Recurring messages about increased density,
building heights and compact approach, when done well, can make
high quality living environment.
• All island approach to growth and development (brexit backdrop).
• Economy: No one clear message but Atlantic Economic Corridor
highlighted as well as potential of clustering, employment agencies role
and national tourism initiatives – Wild Atlantic Way
• Energy: Clear desire to move towards renewables in general and greater
certainty in decisions but less clarity about ‘where’ they should locate.
• Rural Development: Importance of rural community development and
big emphasis on role of towns and villages more-so than one off
housing.
• Integrated terrestrial and maritime planning policy approach.
Where we are now
• Preparation of draft Ireland 2040 is underway taking on board:
• Research work undertaken, including ESRI econometric and demographic
modelling
• Public consultation responses
• Expert departmental and agency input
• Cross-departmental engagement/Government consideration June/July
• Aim to publish for public consultation and Oireachtas consideration starting
before summer recess and conclusion early autumn
• Ensure finalisation to shape Capital Review (Budget ‘18)
8
2. Trends
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Planning and regions high priority
Interest in Smart Cities/Towns
Range of rural issues
Regional/planning/housing issues part
of a suite of energy, mobility,
communications and competitiveness
issues that must be tackled together
• How?
Dublin – dynamic metropolitan area, but…
Twice the footprint of EU comparators +
Getting more spread-out: sustainable??
M50 Ring and beyond fastest growing
Regional Cities growing more at edges
A “Lose-Lose” strategy?
ESRI Analysis
• Examines trends - output,
income, population, employment,
jobs
Population 1991-2040
6
5
4
3
2
1
• Makes projections - ‘business as
0
1991
usual’ baseline
2041
Jobs 1991-2040
2016 2040
Population 4.76
Jobs
2.02
Homes
2.00
2016
5.63 (million)
2.67 (million)
2.55 (million)
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1991
2016
• Assumes trends accommodated,
also applies regionally
12
2041
3. Questions
 Strategy for Dublin – our capital city, upwards or outwards?…
 How to release under-utilised potential in the regional cities….
 Activating potential of rural Ireland including both the terrestrial
and marine dimensions in a realistic and sustainable fashion (esp.
towns and villages)…
 Addressing planning challenges in meeting Ireland’s obligations to
transform energy and transport systems sustainably and harnessing
both land and marine resources…
 Shaping a strategic infrastructure investment plan…
 Are existing implementation structures good enough?
4. Policies
 Major part of Ireland 2040: at least 600k of +1million pop by 2040 will be urban
 Business as Usual:




Dublin:
Cork:
Limerick:
Galway:
2011 – 1.1m
2011 – 200k
2011 – 96k
2011 – 93k
2040: 1.4m (fastest growth at edge)
2040: 240k (main growth in ring towns)
2040: 115k (edges could grow fastest)
2040: 110k (eastwards growth)
 If we want change, how? Given we are not in a “command” economy
 Most cities have huge potential for infill – regional cities would be at least 30% bigger
today if less housing “leaked” from where jobs are (cities) to surrounding rural areas
 We must create the conditions for urban regeneration, infill, densification
Case Study: Limerick
•
•
•
•
Limerick – weak city centre
Vacant property
Potential of strategic acquisitions to
kick-start renewal
Supportive planning and housing
policy essential (edge of city and
central city approach)
Rural Policy
 “Rural” Ireland has a major part to play
 30%-50% of Irelands population lives in rural/predominantly rural areas
 We need to change the narrative about rural Ireland – too frequently associated with “decline” “depopulation”
 Many rural areas highly vibrant and progressing well in economic, social and environmental terms –
planning has a major role in identifying and releasing potential – e.g. Center Parks and many other
diversified economic development options?
 “Health/vitality” of rural towns and villages often at the heart of remoter, more inland rural areas
struggling in economic and social terms
 Rural settlement/housing policies are essential to get right
 50% of current build one-off vs “Smart Growth”??
 What are the alternatives? Why do people not choose towns/villages for self-build options?
Smart Growth – Long-term savings
• Evidence demonstrates that more compact forms of development present
significant lifecycle savings to the State
• Suggest factor >2.0 in terms of both Co2 and € over plan period
• As well as emissions reduction and servicing cost savings, benefits include
agglomeration, scale, productivity, vibrancy
• Imperative to focus on differentiating factors & address market failure:‘liveability’ – public transport, amenity spaces, social inclusion, urban
governance
• Issue has been that greenfield development has met needs in the short run,
but paying for sprawl happens in the long run…
17
Policy Levers
 Infrastructure/Planning Co-ordination: alignment with Capital Review 2018-2021 and 10
year Capital Plan – incentivising collaborative and strategic action to achieve national
goals
 Governance: implementing agreed approaches through local government structures, (1)
Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies (2) better approaches to metropolitan area
bases planning and infrastructure co-ordination
 Land management: mobilising the State’s land-bank to secure regeneration and urbancentric development
 Climate Change: aligning planning policies and required actions under
mitigation/adaptation strategies: e.g. planning policy on renewable energy
 Transport: Getting location and form of future development is critical, we need to
change the way we are locating major developments for a shift to sustainable modes to
happen
 Environmental Quality: Mainstreaming water quality (River Basin Management)
Biodiversity, Marine Spatial Planning, Landscape and other environmental factors in
(spatial) planning
5. Aims…
 Ireland 2040 vision and principles endorsed by the public, approved by Cabinet,
broad political support (like Rebuilding Ireland?)
 Shift in local authority actions towards more strategic and prioritised approach
reinforced by clear policy parameters and funding support (Centre and Local
working together)
 A sense of mobilisation and “things happening” on the ground – a movement?
 Sequence of annual budgets, medium term investment envelopes and strategic
infrastructure thinking working in sync with identification of strategic planning and
development opportunities
 Less “catch-up” – more resilience in addressing change/shocks - more prepared and
better briefed to inform and guide the political process at local, regional and
national levels.
Questions?
www.npf.ie
[email protected]
[email protected]