Capital Budgeting Process 1. Estimate the cash flows. 2. Assess the riskiness of the cash flows. 3. Determine the appropriate discount rate. 4. Find the PV of the expected cash flows. 5. Accept the project if PV of inflows > costs. Capital Budgeting 1. Basic Data Expected Net Cash Flow Year Project L Project S 0 ($100) ($100) 1 10 70 2 60 50 3 80 20 2. Evaluation Techniques A. Payback period B. Discounted payback period C. Net present value (NPV) D. Internal rate of return (IRR) E. Modified internal rate of return (MIRR) Capital Budgeting - Illustration I. Basic Data Expected Net Cash Flow Year Project L Project S 0 ($100) ($100) 1 10 70 2 60 50 3 80 20 Capital Budgeting Weakness of Payback: 1. Ignores the time value of money. This weakness is eliminated with the discounted payback method. 2. Ignores cash flows occurring after the payback period. Capital Budgeting NPV = CFt (1+k) t Project L: 0 10% 1 -100.00 10 2 3 60 80 9.09 49.59 60.11 NPVL= 18.79 NPVS = $19.98 If the projects are independent, accept both. If the projects are mutually exclusive, accept Project S since NPVS > NPVL Capital Budgeting IRR = CFt (1+IRR) t = 1 2 3 -100.00 10 8.47 43.02 48.57 0.06 = $0 60 80 $0 = NPV Project L: 0 IRR IRRL=18.1% IRRS=23.6% If the projects are independent, accept both because IRR>k. If the projects are mutually exclusive, accept Project S since IRRS > IRRL Capital Budgeting Project L: 0 10% 1 -100.00 10 100.00 3 80.00 66.00 12.10 MIRR = 16.5% $158.10 $0.00 = NPV PV outflows = $100 TV inflows =$158.10 (pvif) 2 60 TVof inflows $100=158.10 Capital Budgeting - Illustration II. Evaluation Techniques A. Payback period B. Discounted payback period C. Net present value (NPV) D. Internal rate of return (IRR) E. Modified internal rate of return (MIRR) Capital Budgeting - Payback Period Payback period = Expected number of years required to recover a project’s cost. Project L Expected Net Cash Flow Year Annual Cumulative 0 ($100) ($100) 1 10 (90) 2 60 (30) 3 80 50 Capital Budgeting - Payback Period PaybackL= 2 + $30 / $80 years = 2.4 years PaybackS= 1.6 years. Weaknesses of Payback: 1. Ignores the time value of money. This weakness is eliminated with the discounted payback period. 2. Ignores cash flows occurring after the payback period. Capital Budgeting - Net Present Value (NPV) n CFt NPV = Project L: t=0 (1+k)t 0 10% 1 2 -100.00 10 60 9.09 49.59 60.11 NPVL= $18.79 3 80 Capital Budgeting - Net Present Value (NPV) n CFt NPV = Project S: t=0 (1+k)t 0 10% 1 2 -100.00 70 50 63.64 41.32 15.03 NPVS= $19.99 3 20 Capital Budgeting - Net Present Value (NPV) NPVS = $19.99 NPVL= $18.79 If the projects are independent, accept both. If the projects are mutually exclusive, accept Project S since NPVS > NPVL. Note: NPV declines as k increases and NPV rises as k decreases. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) n CFt IRR = = $0 = NPV Project L: t=0 (1+IRR)t 0 IRR 1 2 3 -100.00 10 60 80 8.47 18.13% 43.00 18.13% 48.54 18.13% $ 0.01 $0 Internal Rate of Return (IRR) n CFt IRR = = $0 = NPV Project S: t=0 (1+IRR)t 0 IRR 1 2 3 -100.00 70 50 20 56.65 23.56% 32.75 23.56% 10.60 23.56% $ 0.00 Internal Rate of Return (IRR) IRRL = 18.13% IRRS = 23.56% If the projects are independent, accept both because IRR > k. If the projects are mutually exclusive, accept Project S since IRRS > IRRL. Note: IRR is independent of the cost of capital. Capital Budgeting - NPV Profiles k NPVL NPVS 0% $50 $40 5 33 29 10 19 20 15 7 12 20 (4) 5 Modified IRR (MIRR) Project L: 0 10% 1 -100 10 2 60 3 80.00 66.00 12.10 $158.10 =TV of 100.00 MIRR=16.5% inflows $ 0.00 = NPV Modified IRR (MIRR) Project S: 0 10% 1 -100 70 2 50 3 20.00 55.00 84.70 $159.70 =TV of 100.00 MIRR=16.9% inflows $ 0.00 = NPV Modified IRR (MIRR) PV outflows = $100 TV inflows = $158.10 $100 = $158.10 (PVIFMIRRL,3) MIRRL = 16.5% MIRRS = 16.9% Modified IRR (MIRR) Project L: 0 5% 1 -100 10 2 60 3 80.00 63.00 11.03 $154.03 =TV of 100.00 MIRR=15.48% inflows $ 0.00 = NPV Modified IRR (MIRR) Project S: 0 5% 1 -100 70 2 50 3 20.00 52.50 77.18 $149.68 =TV of 100.00 MIRR=14.39% inflows $ 0.00 = NPV Modified IRR (MIRR) MIRR is better than IRR because: 1. MIRR correctly assumes reinvestment at project’s cost of capital. 2. MIRR avoids the problem of multiple IRRs. NPV Profile: Nonnormal Project P with Multiple IRRs Year 0 1 2 Cash Flow (‘000) ($800) 5,000 (5,000) NPV @10% = -$386,777. Do not accept; NPV < 0. IRR = 25% and 400%. MIRR = 5.6%. Do not accept; MIRR < k. Debt $120 $100 1 year Bank IRR = 20% wacc=10% Equity $100 % 20% A=20% IOS wacc = 10% 0 100 MCC $ IF IRR > WACC THEN ACCEPT PROJECT Debt $110 $100 1 year Bank IRR = 10% wacc=10% Equity $100 PV(CASH IN) = 100 = CASH OUTFLOW IN 120 IN 110 1 YEAR 1 YEAR WACC = 10% 100 OUT PV(IN) = 109.09 PV(OUT) = 100 NPV = 9.09 CF0= -100 i=10% CF1= 120 NPV = 9.09 WACC = 10% 100 OUT PV(IN) = 100 PV(0UT) = 100 NPV =0 CF0= -100 i=10% CF1= 110 NPV = 0 10% IN 105 WACC = 10% 100 OUT IRR CF0 = -100 CF1 = 105 IRR = 5% NPV PV(IN) = 95.45 PV(OUT) = 100 NPV = -4.55 CF0 = -100 CF1=105 i = 10% NPV = -4.55
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