Craig Morris
Petite Planète
www.petiteplanete.org
Ukraine’s
Energy Future
“Energiewende”
Sep 13, 2012
The German energy transition –
what can other countries learn?
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
Ukraine’s
Energy Future
Sep 13, 2012
Renewables
International:
news in
renewables in
Germany and
abroad every
workday
www.renewablesinternational.net
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
Ukraine’s
Energy Future
Sep 13, 2012
Website on
German
energy
transition for
Heinrich Böll
Foundation
end of
October
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
90
Solar and PV
already close to
baseload
demand; will cut
into baseload
within decade
when targets are
met.
Combined
installed
wind+PV will
exceed peak
demand by 25%
80
Nov peak 80 GW
70
60
Summer peak
70 GW
50
40
Target offshore
10 GW
Target onshore
46 GW
PV target
52 GW
30
20
Baseload
40 GW
Wind 29 GW
Peak power demand
winter/summer/baseload
Installed onshore wind,
2011/target/offshore
PV 25 GW
10
0
Installed PV, 2011/target
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
Not April Fools:
Renewables
already
increasingly cut
into baseload,
such as on
Sunday, April 1.
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
What
happened at 4
pm on April 1?
Left: solar
power
production
Right: wind
power
Visit EEX
Transparency
website
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
The result was
negative prices
at 4 pm.
Good: firms
benefit from low
wholesale prices
thanks to RE
Bad: Investments
in dispatchable
conventional
power less
attractive
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
RE shaves peaks,
lowering
wholesale prices
(merit-order
effect).
Wind (light
green) and solar
(yellow)
complement each
other well.
Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
RE shaves peaks,
lowering
wholesale prices
(merit-order
effect).
Wind (blue) and
solar (orange)
complement each
other well.
Source: Bernard Chabot, Renewables International
Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.org
The German energy transition, Kiev
Conclusions:
If Ukraine has
~22 GW summer
peak demand, 11
GW of wind and
11 of solar in
Ukraine should
have similar effect
Germany remains
power exporter;
grid stability best
in EU (world?);
CO2 emissions
dropped again in
2011 despite
nuclear phase-out


In mid-2012, Germany had 30 GW of wind and 29 of PV, each
roughly equal to 50% of average demand (60-70 GW)
At 50%, RE offsets peak and medium load, lowers wholesale
prices

Above that level, RE increasingly cuts into baseload

Increasingly, RE power will have to be stored or lost



PV currently makes up 5.3% of power supply, so 10% is feasible,
but more will increasingly require (seasonal) storage
Countries with lots of air-conditioning (USA) have greater summer
than winter peaks, so larger share of PV is possible there
Wind now makes up around 8% in Germany, ~20% easily
feasible (assuming grid integration)