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First-Round Results of France’s Presidential Election
April 28, 2017 France held its first round of presidential elections last weekend. Since no single
candidate garnered 50 percent of the vote, the contest continues next weekend with a runoff
between the top two leading vote-getters: Emmanuel Macron of the newly formed En Marche
movement and Marine Le Pen of the controversial National Front Party. The latest Ipsos polls
show Macron leading Le Pen in the runoff by a margin of 62-38 percent, although other polls
show Le Pen has gained momentum in the past week.
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(click to enlarge)
France’s presidential election by itself is not important in the broad scheme of geopolitics. The
European Union is failing and coming apart at the seams. It is not just Brexit: Countries are
ignoring EU directives as it suits them. If Macron prevails, his victory will not stop this process,
although it may shape the way France relates to the EU and Germany in coming years. But
Macron cannot fix the structural problems that have doomed the EU. France will have to deal
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with the same issues as it does today in terms of the EU.
Still, as a barometer of French public sentiment toward the EU and as an indicator of how the
EU’s demise will play out, the French presidential election is a compelling test case. This graphic
provides a sense of how the next round of voting will play out. It shows both the winner and
runner-up in each French department in the first round. The number inside each department
represents the percentage difference in the vote between the top two candidates in the first
round, with each color corresponding to a candidate.
Two things jump out from the map. First, Le Pen’s support is not just in the south but also in the
northeast, the heart of French industrial production. This is where the working class has begun
to support the National Front. Second, Le Pen’s chances should not be underrated. She faces an
uphill battle in the second round, but her chances at picking up votes in key departments should
not be dismissed.
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