Angus Council
Housing Need & Demand
Assessment
Steering Group Meeting
16th December 2009
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Aims of Session
1. To detail methodology for disaggregating
the requirement for affordable housing
2. To review disaggregated model
outcomes
3. To agree assumptions for projections:
future housing need/supply
4. To agree structure and presentation of
final report
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Baseline Housing Need
Calculation for
Affordable Housing
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Affordable Housing
Need Calculation
Current Need
X (a quota)
Plus
Newly Arising
Need
Minus
Supply of
Affordable
Housing
Net Shortfall/
Surplus
Equals
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Affordable Housing
Need Calculation
Current Need: Unsuitable Housing
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•
•
•
•
•
Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175
Concealed Households: 219
Overcrowding: 779
Special Needs: 3,194
Poor Condition: 428
Harassment: 127
Current Need = 4,922
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Affordable Housing
Need Calculation
Total Current Need – Eliminate:
• ‘In situ solutions’:
 Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680
 Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514
• Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242
Then eliminate
• % can meet need in private housing market
 52% households can meet market entry price
Net Current Need = 2,206
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Affordable Housing
Need Calculation
Newly Arising Need
• New household formation: 771
 Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet
market entry level prices (32%)
• Existing households falling into
need: 724
 Change in household circumstances including
annual flow of homeless households
Newly Arising Estimate = 1,248
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Affordable Housing
Need Calculation
Affordable Housing Supply
• Affordable housing relets: 1,075
• Committed new affordable supply: 50
• Turnover net of units taken out of
management: 0 demolitions
• Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125
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Affordable Housing
Need Calculation
Interim Calculation Estimate
• Current need = 4,922
 Net current need = 2,206
 Net annual current need = 221 (10 years)
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•
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Annual newly arising need = 1,248
Annual total need = 1,469
Annual affordable supply = 1,125
Estimated shortfall = -344
10 year Est. shortfall = -3,440
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Disaggregated
Calculation for
Affordable Housing
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Projecting Future Need
Aggregated Housing Needs Analysis:
– assumes the current profile of housing supply can
meet the type of need identified
– assumes need is met over 5 year period
Disaggregated Analysis:
− determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’
− detailed match of households to homes by size,
area, property type and tenure
− assesses if annual need is met by supply and
extent to which backlog can be reduced
− identifies length of time to address backlog
− provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/
surplus to inform strategic planning
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Annual Newly
Arising Need
Area
Annual
Supply
Matched to
Area
Size
Size
Type
Type
Backlog Housing Need
Area
Size
Residual Supply
Type
Residual Backlog
Projected Forward Over
Time Until Eliminated
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Model Overview
• Disaggregated Methodology
• Model Assumptions
 Backlog
 Newly Arising Need
 Supply
• Model Outputs
• Key Questions
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Base Assumptions
• The model is based on the 3 components
of the aggregated HNADA calculation
 Backlog figure
 Newly arising need figure
 Supply figure
• 10 year projections model
• Data input by HMA, Size, Type
• 4 Housing Market Areas
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North HMA (Brechin & Montrose),
East HMA (Arbroath),
South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws),
West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens)
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Base Assumptions
• Size: Bedrooms 1 to 5
• Property Type
 General Needs
 Special Needs
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•
•
•
Wheelchair
Accommodation without Stairs
Sheltered
Supported
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Base Assumptions
• Input by 7 components of need and split by
area and size based on analysis of survey or
council datasets
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•
•
•
•
•
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Homeless Households = 136
Insecure Tenure = 39
Concealed Households = 219
Overcrowding = 779
Special Housing: net of in-situ solutions = 2,514
Poor Quality = 428
Harassment = 127
TOTAL = 4,242
• Facility in model to input projected
increase/decreases on base assumptions
• Affordability outcomes applied by HMA
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Housing Affordability
Disaggregated Outcomes by HMA
HMA
Arbroath
Brechin
Carnoustie
Forfar
Angus
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
Lower
Quartile
Price 2008
80,000
82,875
133,000
94,000
93,000
Backlog
NAN
Affordability Affordability
49%
44%
61%
54%
50%
68%
51%
65%
59%
68%
Net Backlog of Current Need (Angus) = 2,121
Net Backlog of Current Need (4 HMA) = 2,212
New Formers Affordability (Angus) = 524
New Formers Affordability (4 HMA) = 461
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Newly Arising Need
Assumptions
• New Formation – split by area, size and type
based on survey data = 771
 Assumption : All General Needs
 Affordability Factor : applied by HMA
 Facility to increase/decrease per annum
• Homelessness input by area, size and type
based on analysis of HL1 dataset = 724
 Assumption : All General Needs?
 Increase p.a. according to 2012 target
• 724 = 2008/09 (85% priority assessment)
• Increased to 100% (2009/10 – 2012/13)
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Supply Assumptions
• Council & RSL stock calculation, split by
HMA, size and type
• Adjusted for long term voids and units
taken out of management
• Council & RSL relet rate established by area
and type based on turnover analysis
 Applied to stock to translate into annual
supply of affordable dwellings by area,
size and type
 Facility to model increase/decrease in
supply and turnover rate
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Baseline Year Supply
Assumptions
• Total Affordable Stock = 10,866
 Angus Council = 7,817
 RSL’s = 3,049 units
• Adjusted for RTB Projections
 31 units per annum (average 2009-19)
 AC HRA Business Plan assumptions
• Adjusted for demolitions = 0
• Turnover rate by HMA/type applied
to stock to produce vacancies
 Angus Council Ave for GN stock = 7%
 RSL Ave for GN stock 6%
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Baseline Year Supply
Assumptions
New Affordable Housing Supply
• Based on TAYplan assumptions
 Based on AHIP budget and £74k cost per unit
 Reduction in AHIP of 25% from 2009/10 level
 Projected over 10 years
• 49 units per annum
• Split new housing by area, size and type as
per the current stock profile
• Relet rate based on 50% of the average
RSL rate (3%)
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Disaggregated Outcomes
Key Outcomes
• Year 1: 2,439 households have unmet need
• Year 5: 3,228 households have unmet need
• Year 10: 4,399 households have unmet need
Headlines at Year 5
• Shortfall of affordable housing highest in
South (-1,605) & West (-1,339) HMA’s
• Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4
bedroom properties: (-1,188) (35%)
• 85% of shortfall is in General Needs housing
• 15% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing
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Disaggregated Outcomes
Key Drivers in Increasing Shortfall
• Baseline backlog current need = -2,277
• Average annual shortfall = -193
 Minimum shortfall = - 53 (baseline year)
 Maximum shortfall = -238 (Year 10)
• Annual shortfalls increase as a result of:
 Increasing number of annual homeless households
 Reducing stock numbers
• Cumulative annual shortfall = -2,122
• Backlog + total annual shortfall = -4,399
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Unmet Need for
Affordable Housing
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Unmet Need for Affordable
Housing by Area
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Unmet Need for Affordable
Housing by Type
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Unmet Need for Affordable
Housing by Size
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HNADA Conclusions –
Key Issues
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Market Housing
Requirement: Key Issues
• There are significant differences in market
housing demand between HMA’s
 Demand concentrated in the South HMA
• Since 2007 there has been a significant drop in
the level of sales activity within the market
(30%)
 For modelling purposes, it is anticipated that
the market will to its 2007 level by Year 10
• The evidence supports the view that by 2019
there will be a shortfall of over 6,000 market
dwellings throughout Angus
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Market Housing
Requirement: Key Issues
• Difficult to predict the likely pattern of
market recovery the evidence suggests that
high quality market housing for older
households is likely to be a robust market
sector
• Given the assumptions used within the
model the land requirement for market
housing can be assessed by:
 (Known current land bank) – (land requirement
for assumed level of new build within model (290
units)) + (land requirement to meet unmet need
of 6,000 households)
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Recommendations
• The number of households in need does NOT
equal number of units to be delivered
• Need could be met through range of
interventions programmed though LHS:
 developing partnerships with the private
rented sector;
 tackling private sector disrepair;
 using assistive technology to promote
independence in older people;
 tackling and preventing homelessness;
 making better use of the current affordable
and private stock;
 developing flexible tenure options; and
 increasing housing supply.
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Providing
Housing Support
Tackling
Homelessness
2012 Target
Assessment
Local Need
Local Housing
Strategy
Climate
Change
Challenge
Housing Supply
Target
Housing Market
Area Evidence
Local Need
Fuel Poverty
Strategy
Meeting Housing
Need & Demand
Investment Direction
Development Plan Link
Private Sector
Housing
Local Delivery
Role of PRS in
Meeting Need
Achieving
Sustainable
Communities
Local Actions
Enforcement
SOA
Local Duty
SHIP
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Recommendations
• AC should prepare an action plan
 quantify potential impact of each intervention
 set targets for projected impact on overall
level of unmet need
• Residual need should be starting
point for supply target setting
• This process should consider


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land capacity
development industry capacity
availability of development funding
corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement
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