Journal of Addictive Diseases ISSN: 1055-0887 (Print) 1545-0848 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/wjad20 Assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of drug intervention programmes: UK case study Brendan J. Collins, Kevin Cuddy & Antony P. Martin To cite this article: Brendan J. Collins, Kevin Cuddy & Antony P. Martin (2016): Assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of drug intervention programmes: UK case study, Journal of Addictive Diseases, DOI: 10.1080/10550887.2016.1182299 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10550887.2016.1182299 Accepted author version posted online: 02 May 2016. Published online: 02 May 2016. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 19 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=wjad20 Download by: [University of Liverpool] Date: 01 June 2016, At: 05:56 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of drug intervention programmes: UK case study Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Brendan J. Collins1, Kevin Cuddy2, Antony P. Martin3,* 1 Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom. 2 Centre for Public Health, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, United Kingdom. 3 NIHR CLAHRC NWC, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom * Correspondence to Antony P. Martin. Email: [email protected] Abstract Aims: The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the UK Drug Interventions Programme (DIP) which directs adult drug-misusing offenders out of crime and into treatment programmes was established. Methods: Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) estimates from the UK Drug Treatment Outcomes Research Study were collected and a cost utility assessment of the DIP was conducted. Results: Cost-utility assessment confirmed that the DIP is both effective and costeffective with an average net cost saving of £668 (£6,207 including one case of homicide). Conclusions: This study provides evidence that DIPs are cost-effective as they reduce crime, improve quality of life and reduce subsequent drug use. Keywords Drug treatment, crime, cocaine, opiates, quality of life, test on arrest 1 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Introduction Drug-related crime is a global challenge. Many problematic drug users in the community find themselves becoming involved in crime and coming into contact with criminal justice services. Moreover, large proportions of prison populations experience problematic drug use and this is often considered a poor environment to recover. Recently, the UK and other developed countries Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 have seen an increase in policies aimed at linking drug treatment services with the criminal justice system.1 Studies have found conflicting evidence as to whether legal pressure is an effective method of achieving drug treatment success. Some studies from North America have concluded that legal pressure has a strong and positive impact on treatment entry and also retention, which has led to positive outcomes.2-4 The US Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study highlighted reduced crime costs following drug treatment in both outpatient and residential settings. Other studies found a negative impact of legal referral compared with elective referral.5-6 Nevertheless there still remains a paucity of evidence in favour and against. However, some studies conclude the possible negative results of a policy of criminal justice referrals into treatment based on presumptions of need and non-empirical evidence basis.7-8 It has been widely reported that use of certain addictive drugs like heroin and crack cocaine place a high financial burden on society.9 Given evidence shortage and increasingly constrained government budgets, it is therefore paramount to continue to evaluate and ensure efficient allocation of resources. An international literature review compared and contrasted a host of European schemes and found a lack of consensus remains as to the most effective and cost- 2 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT effective drug intervention programmes. Interventions have been found to vary considerably between countries such as Austria, Germany and the Netherlands, in terms of choice of treatment, punishment and imposed treatment-based sentences.10 The Drug Interventions Programme (DIP) was initiated in 2003/04 as part of the UK Government‟s strategy for combating problematic drug use. Previously, The Crime and Disorder Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Act 1998 introduced the Drug Treatment and Testing Orders, a community penalty where drug users who showed willingness to comply with the conditions of the treatment were compelled into drug treatment. The DIP has an operational handbook11 which sets out a framework of how the DIP is implemented. In the DIP, people who have been arrested for „trigger‟ offences such as drug possession or dealing, or crimes that are often related to drug addiction such as fraud or acquisitive crime, are saliva tested in the custody suite in the police station for the presence of cocaine and/or opiate metabolites. If the test is positive, the person is then referred into drug treatment services. The ambition is that testing on arrest enables early identification of people who are committing crimes associated with their drug use so that they can be channelled into drug treatment, and to ensure that drug users who are not charged with an offence are offered a treatment and support programme. An individual is tested on arrest where they fulfil the following conditions: are aged 18 or over; are in police custody; and were arrested for a trigger offence or for an offence where a police officer of Inspector rank or above suspects that opiate or cocaine use was a causal or contributory factor. Since drug and alcohol commissioning moved from the NHS to local authorities in April 2013 the DIP has become optional and therefore this study is pivotal for commissioners who need to decide whether they should continue the DIP. 3 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Moreover, the study provides evidence for the introduction of such drug intervention programmes across the globe. The present study followed individuals who were in contact with the DIP across a six month time period from April to September 2013. The data used in the analysis was drawn from Wirral, a borough in Merseyside located in the North West of England with a population of approximately Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 320,000 people. Wirral experienced a significant rise in heroin use from 1982, believed to be fuelled by high youth unemployment and misinformation with regard to the addictive nature of the drug.12 Wirral pioneered the “Mersey Model of Harm Reduction” which consisted of opiate substitution as well as needle and syringe exchange and psychosocial support.13 In 2012 Wirral was estimated to have the 10th highest rate of opiate and crack cocaine use out of 151 local authorities in England.14 During this study Wirral had an older treatment population of around 2,200 mainly opiate, or polydrug opiate and crack users who mainly have an extended history of drug use of 20 years or more. Crime rates in Wirral peaked in the mid-1980s and fell each year from 2001 to 2011.15 The analysis was conducted to determine the cost-effectiveness of DIP based on an assessment of criminal activity and quality of life. This topic is of significant economic importance as the DIP represents a significant proportion of expenditure for local authorities in England. For the purposes of the analysis, the hypothesis was that costs of crime will be lower in the 12 months post DIP assessment than in the 12 months pre assessment. A cost-utility analysis was also undertaken as it is considered the „gold standard‟ form of evaluation according to NICE (the 4 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, who recommend health and social care interventions in England and Wales) for assessing the value of public health interventions.16 Methods The analysis incorporates a broad societal perspective, accounting for the wider impact of crime Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 on health and quality of life. The transitory pleasure that individuals may experience from using drugs is characterised as temporary and the analysis considers that average quality of life improves as individuals confront and attenuate their drug use. The costs for the DIP were based on an average cost of the whole programme so include the cost of testing people who did not test positive for drugs. The cost of drug treatment is based on a six month average for people referred to drug treatment in Wirral. These costs were derived from service line reporting (SLR) for the services which were both provided by ARCH (Advice, Rehabilitation, Counselling and Health). ARCH are a not for profit drug treatment provider. Figure 1 shows relevant costs and outcomes which were included in the analysis. The cost of £924 for the DIP was based on a total cost of £491,721 for 2012/13 financial year divided by an estimated 532 people tested (the six month sample of 266 people multiplied by 2). These costs were made up of having drug testing staff who visited the custody suites including dealing with repeat offenders and stimulant users (£198k), drug testing materials and laboratory use (£77k), and GP and prescribing costs (£72k), admin costs (£22k), and costs of engaging with the police as well as other overheads and management costs (£82k). 5 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT The most recent UK data on the unit cost of crimes were adopted from the Integrated Offender Management toolkit (IOM) which was produced in 2011.17 These costs of crime estimates were initially produced in 2000 by the Home Office and were updated for crimes against individuals in 2005.18-19 These figures include costs incurred in anticipation of crime (such as security expenditure), as a consequence of crime (such as property stolen and emotional or physical Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 impacts), and in response to crime (costs to the criminal justice system). These Home Office reports give a detailed breakdown of what proportion of costs are insurance, physical and emotional impact, health services, property stolen, criminal justice, etc. These costs were inflated to the time period that individuals were followed up (2012) by increasing them by a factor of 2.38% based on the GDP deflator table from the HM Treasury. The arrests analysed occurred between April 2011 to September 2013 and a consistent unit cost was selected for each crime to ensure that the comparison of before and after DIP assessment costs were not skewed by inflation. There remains a paucity of data as the IOM toolkit and previous unit costs fail to include a cost for drug offences, which amounts to a significant proportion of the arrests for which individuals were included in the DIP (11.7% of arrests in the Wirral data). Arrests which could not be matched to other categories assumed an average cost of £685 based on an academic case study of Sussex Police.20 Crime costs were matched with arrests for individuals 12 months before and 12 months after their contact with the DIP. Clearly some individuals are not prosecuted or found guilty of crime committed, however it was assumed that some of the costs associated with the arrest still occurred. However it has been estimated that only 29% of crimes are detected (but those detected are likely to be the more serious crimes), so any cost of crime estimate should theoretically be 6 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT inflated to take into account those crimes that are not detected.21 Based on this figure, it can be assumed that for each crime that is detected, individuals commit an average of 2-3 crimes which are not. Nationally, approximately 83% of individuals prosecuted for crimes were found guilty in 2013; however, this varies by type of crime group.22 The highest unit cost per crime is for homicide at £1.8million which was considered an outlier Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 and therefore caution was taken in the analysis as even a small number of homicides would skew the average costs. The analysis of average costs was carried out including and excluding homicides to observe how it would impact upon the results. Appendix 1 shows the arrest reason and associated costs. In the analysis, average QALYs gained from the Drug Treatment Outcome Study (DTORS) were used.23-24 The DTORS cost effectiveness study was essentially a before and after study, where baseline utility scores were extrapolated. This study measured outcomes for drug users across England, however it should be noted that it experienced a high drop-out rate. Of the individuals recruited to the study, 35% had criminal justice involvement, and 62% had used heroin and 44% crack cocaine in the 4 weeks prior to the interview. The quality of life information in the DTORS was calculated using the Short Form 12 (SF-12) survey instrument. Both the costs of crime and estimated QALY differences were measured over a 12 month time horizon so no discounting rate was applied for costs or outcomes. A subgroup analysis of differences between crime rates before and after the DIP was conducted according to gender; those testing positive for cocaine only, opiates only and both cocaine and opiates; and by test outcome groups. These test outcomes were „no further contact‟ which meant that the staff had no 7 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT further contact with the individual, often because they refused any assessment; where an assessment was made of the individuals‟ needs in terms of drug treatment and they were sometimes given a brief intervention; and where a care plan was made with the individual for their ongoing needs surrounding drug treatment. In addition, measures of quality of life, psychological and physical health from the Treatment Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Outcomes Profiles (TOPs) were analysed. This was for cross-sectional data from ARCH for two financial years, 2011/12 and 2012/13. There was no recognised approach to mapping scores on the TOPs to utility scores, otherwise this would have been included in the economic evaluation. A statistical model was constructed using MS Excel Visual Basic for Applications. This model was a client level Monte Carlo simulation model which was bootstrapped for 10,000 hypothetical clients where each time a random scenario was drawn from the data distributions. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to investigate and quantify the uncertainty associated with the results of our analysis. This information provides the decision-maker with a range of possible outcomes and the probabilities that they would occur for any choice of action. A Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates the extreme outcome possibilities and frequency of those outcomes. An overall point estimate was then calculated from the 10,000 random walks through the model and the results were modelled over the 12 month time horizon. Table 1 shows a list of parameters for the model. In short, all parameters were randomly sampled from assigned probability distributions. However, in the absence of data distributions for individual costs for the DIP and for drug treatment, an estimate of around 20% variance was used to characterise uncertainty for those 8 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT parameters in the model. Because there was one homicide case which has a very high cost, this was excluded from the analysis but included as an additional separate scenario. Findings Differences in Offending Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 The main types of offences committed by the 266 people in contact with the DIP were acquisitive and drugs offences. Overall there was a significant reduction in offending of 52% in the 12 months post-test period compared with the 12 months pre-test period (F [1,263] = 58.035, p < 0.001). Moreover, there was a reduction in economic costs across individuals who had tested positive for cocaine, opiates and both (see Table 2). Those individuals who were care planned by the DIP team following their arrest showed the most substantial reduction in offences pre-test and post-test. However, there were no statistically significant differences between the three groups in terms of change in the number of offences pre-test to post-test (F [2,263] = 1.931, ns). This absence of statistical significance in part may be explained by the smaller sample size due to the subgroup analysis (see Table 3). Differences in Health & Quality of Life Outcomes Treatment Outcomes Profiles (TOPs) are self-reported profiles of drug use, crime and other outcomes. In the dataset it was not possible to conclusively filter for clients identified through the DIP, therefore criminal justice referrals were used as a proxy. This included arrest referral, DIP, DRR [drug rehabilitation requirement], criminal justice other, CARAT [counselling assessment referral advice and throughcare], prison and probation. In practice, the majority of 9 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT these clients would have passed through the DIP. In a cross section of 1,806 criminal justice clients in Wirral, the average TOPs psychological health status was 24.7% higher at treatment exit than treatment start, physical health was 12.4% higher, and quality of life was 31.1% higher (see Figure 2). These differences were all statistically significant (p<0.001). Difference in Crime Costs Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 The crime costing analysis included 264 out of 266 clients; 2 clients could not be matched with the data and were therefore excluded. The average crime costs were found to be 43% lower in the 12 months post DIP, or 77% lower when the one case of homicide was included (Table 2). The data for costs of crime did not follow a normal distribution so a non-parametric Wilcoxon signed ranks test was used. The difference in costs between 12 months pre and 12 months post DIP was statistically significant (p<0.0001) with 209 out of 264 clients having lower crime costs, 42 had higher crime costs, and 13 had the same crime costs. This difference was significant with and without the one homicide case (p<0.0001). Economic Model Results Overall, the DIP was found to be cost effective with an average net cost saving of £668 (or £6,207 including one case of homicide). Using the QALY estimates from the DTORS, the service was found to be dominant against a do-nothing alternative, meaning it had a lower net cost and higher average QALYs gained (Table 4). 10 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Discussion There is a considerable shortage of evidence with regard to the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of Drug Intervention Programmes throughout the world. Existing evidence has been found to be conflicting and the interpretation of the transferability of programmes requires caution. Intervention effectiveness has been found to be partially dependent upon permutations of formal Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 and informal legal pressure, alongside types of interventions. Moreover, the methods and nature of diversion from the criminal justice system to treatment varies considerably. Arrest referral schemes such as the DIP in England and Wales provides a voluntary treatment referral system from within the criminal justice setting to largely community-based prescribing services. Whereas, the USA drug court referrals deal mainly with individuals charged with drug-related offences and more commonly refer the individual to an abstinence-based residential programme.9 Constrained governmental budgets exist in Europe, North America and worldwide. Increasingly, a stronger evidence-base of cost-effectiveness is now required for the adoption or continuation of national spending on drug intervention programmes and other national programmes. This economic evaluation has demonstrated that the Drug Interventions Programme is likely to be cost effective in reducing future crime. This will be achieved by engaging individuals in drug treatment programmes and other services such as housing and money advice as many drug users often face several socioeconomic challenges.25 Crime can be reduced by challenging drug user behaviour and creating opportunities and motivating individuals to move to an alternative lifestyle where drug use and crime do not feature. 11 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT The overall volume of offending by Wirral residents in the sample reduced by 52% post DIP positive drug test. National research from 2007 suggested a 26% reduction in crime post-DIP and if national figures are still similar, this implies that the DIP in Wirral is associated with a greater reduction in crime than nationally.11 Taking into account net costs and social value of benefits (using a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY) the cost-benefit ratio would be Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 £2.26 for every £1 spent, or £6.33 where homicide was included. As a comparison, in the DTORS study (which had a one year time horizon and did not include the DIP), average net benefit ratio was £2.50 for every £1 spent. In addition, the earlier NTORS study adopted a longer 4 year time horizon and the cost-benefit ratio was estimated at £9.50 in benefits for every £1 spent.26 It should be noted that there is limited evidence for what can be considered a clinically important difference in QALYs for drug treatment. A cancer study concluded that 0.11 QALYs is a clinically important difference, which is greater than the average difference from the DTORS used in this analysis.27 It should be noted that Wirral is an area with a history of drug problems and still there remains a significant population of drug users. This factor, combined with its long history of drug treatment services may mean that services in Wirral are expected to be more cost effective and efficient than similar services in other areas of the UK as service provision has existed for a long time and at scale. Overall, this analysis is useful in informing national and international decision-making surrounding drug test on arrest schemes. However, as the richness of this crime data is not available for other drug and alcohol treatment services, the present study has limited comparison with other services in terms of cost effectiveness through preventing crime. 12 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT The present study included people tested for opiates, cocaine or both. Opiates would include prescription drugs such as tramadol and codeine as well as street heroin and methadone. In addition, the testing process did not differentiate between powder cocaine and crack cocaine. It may be that some powder cocaine users are more likely to be recreational or weekend drug users whereas crack cocaine users are more likely to be addicts and to commit acquisitive crime to Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 fund their addiction as inhalation of crack cocaine produces greater dopamine system downregulation leading to greater addiction.28 In individuals who tested positive for cocaine, 46% had only one arrest in the 12 months pre-test and of these, 79% of these had no arrests in the 12 months post-test which may indicate that many individuals arrested for drugs possession may not have been arrested again regardless of DIP contact. The QALY estimates used were from the DTORS study, which may not accurately reflect the reality of the quality of life benefits for clients who have been through the DIP. The change in TOPS data over time suggests that individuals who are identified through the DIP show a significant improvement in quality of life. The TOPs quality of life scores showed a 31% improvement between treatment start and treatment exit, which if translated into QALYs could enhance the cost-effectiveness of the DIP. However, unlike other quality of life questionnaires such as the EQ-5D, SF-12 and Health Utility Index, there is currently no standard method for converting the TOPs scores into QALYs.28 Since the health and quality of life questions on the TOPs follow other questions which relate to drug use and crime, there may have been a social desirability effect of clients wanting to please their key workers by giving them positive answers to the questions on the TOPs. Additionally, it should be noted that this analysis adopted a one year time horizon and so the actual benefits may be greater when assessed over a longer 13 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT duration. However, as the DIP is essentially a way of channelling people away from crime into drug treatment, the benefits cannot be attributed to the DIP alone, as it is part of a complex integrated system of criminal justice, and drug and alcohol treatment. Due to the nature of the data analysed in this study and issues regarding regression to the mean, uncertainty analysis was conducted. Clients who had no further DIP contact still showed a Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 reduction in crime. In addition, there may also be a small proportion of clients who were in custody in the 12 months after assessment and were therefore less likely to commit crimes. However, there is also the probability that once individuals are known to the police they are more likely to be rearrested for crimes in the future which would result in an increase in arrest rates. The DTORS cost effectiveness study was also a before and after study, which may underestimate the QALY gains from drug treatment, as without drug treatment, individual quality of life may have declined rather than been stable. It may not be considered ethical or practical to run randomised controlled trials in drug treatment, but there may be scope for more robust research designs such as cluster randomised controlled trials or natural trials in future. Moreover, it would also be useful to conduct comparative evaluations in other regions with different population profiles in order to better assess the wider cost effectiveness of DIPs in the UK. In addition, it would be interesting to compare the change in crime and drug treatment rates between areas that retain the DIP and areas that decommission it; however it may be that areas that decommission the DIP will already have fewer problems associated with drugs and crime. 14 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Summary This is a pivotal study as it is the first time a cost utility analysis has been carried out on the Drug Interventions Programme. This analysis used data from Wirral, a local authority area in England and the results have wider implications for the rest of the UK and internationally. The evaluation adopted a societal perspective of the Drug Interventions Programme, where individuals who Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 were arrested for trigger offences were tested for drugs and referred into drug treatment. The results of the analysis provide further evidence of the cost-effectiveness of the programme. The analysis concludes that the drug intervention programme successfully reduces economic costs of crime and also increases quality of life of individuals included in the DIP. Acknowledgements In conducting this research, AM was supported by the National Institute of Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care North West Coast (NIHR CLAHRC NWC). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. 15 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT References 1. Osborne A. Future delivery of the Drug Interventions Programme: Do the benefits justify the costs? Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine 2013; 816-820. 2. Berkowitz G, Brindis C, Clayson Z, Peterson S. Options for recovery: promoting success among women mandated to treatment. J Psychoactive Drugs 1996;28:31–8. Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 3. Collins JJ, Allison M. 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Hayhurst KP, Leitner M, Davies L, Flentje R, Millar T, Jones A, King C, Donmall M, Farrell M, Fazel S, Harris R, Hickman M, Lennox C, Mayet S, Senior J, Shaw J. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of diversion and aftercare programmes for offenders using class A 16 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT drugs: a systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment 2015; No. 19.6. 10. Stevens A, Berto D, Heckmann W, Kerschl V, Oeuvray K, Van Ooyen M, et al. Quasicompulsory treatment of drug dependent offenders: an international literature review. Subst Use Misuse 2005;40:269–83. Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 11. Home Office (2011) Drug Interventions Programme Operational Handbook. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/118069/DIPOperational-Handbook.pdf (accessed 12th January 2016). 12. Parker HJ, Bakx K, Newcombe R. 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A Break-even Analysis of the delivery of Integrated Offender Management in Sussex, 2012. http://www.sussexcriminaljusticeboard.org.uk/media/476235/iom_sussex_evaluation.pdf (accessed August 20, 2015). 21. Ministry of Justice. Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly, March 2013. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/criminal-justice-statistics-quarterly-march-2013 (accessed August 20, 2015). 22. Smith K, Taylor P, Elkin M. Crimes detected in England and Wales 2012/13 (Second edition) Home Office HOSB, 2013. 18 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT 23. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/224037/ho sb0213.pdf (accessed August 20, 2015). 24. Davies L, Jones A, Vamvakas G, Dubourg R, Donmall M. The Drug Treatment Outcomes Research study (DTORS): Cost-effectiveness analysis. Home Office Research Report 25, Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 2009. 25. Brouwer WB, Culyer AJ, Van Exel N, Rutten FF. Welfarism vs. extra-welfarism. J of health economics 2008; 27(2):325-338. 26. Boys A, Marsden J, Griffiths P, Strang J. Drug use functions predict cocaine‐related problems in young people. Drug Alcohol Review 2000; 19(2):181-190. 27. Godfrey C, Stewart D, Gossop M. Economic analysis of costs and consequences of the treatment of drug misuse: 2-year outcome data from the National Treatment Outcome Research Study (NTORS). Addiction 2004; 99(6):697–707. 28. Walters SJ, Brazier JE. Comparison of the minimally important differences for two health state utility measures: EQ-5D and SF-6D. Quality of life research 2005; 14(40):1523-1532. 19 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Appendix 1. Arrest reason and matched crime type and unit cost. Arrest Reason Other Theft [Blank] [Mainly „warrant‟] Drugs Possess Class A Other Non-Crime Drunk and Disorderly Drugs Possess Class B Burglary Dwelling Breach of the Peace Drugs Possess W/I Supply Class A Burglary Other S.47 Assault Criminal Damage Other Violence Against Person Theft Of Vehicle Other Crime S.39 Assault Robbery Theft From Vehicle Disorder - Other Traffic OPL S.18 Wounding Fraud and Forgery Drugs Supply Class A Disorder - Serious Drugs Produce Class B Going Equipped for Stealing Drugs Possess W/I Supply Class B Handling Stolen Goods Aggravated Vehicle Taking S.20 Wounding Traffic General Aggravated Burglary Dwelling Sexual Offence Burglary in a dwelling Drugs Other Violence against the person Drugs Supply Class B Homicide All others Crime type Theft -- not vehicle <other arrests> <other arrests> <other arrests> <other arrests> <other arrests> Burglary in a dwelling <other arrests> <other arrests> Burglary not in a dwelling Other wounding Criminal damage Common assault (personal) Theft of vehicle <other arrests> Common assault Robbery -- personal Theft from vehicle <other arrests> <other arrests> Serious wounding <other arrests> <other arrests> <other arrests> <other arrests> <other arrests> <other arrests> <other arrests> Theft of vehicle Other wounding <other arrests> Burglary in a dwelling Sexual offences Burglary in a dwelling <other arrests> Common assault <other arrests> Homicide <other arrests> 20 Unit Cost 2012 £781 £685 £685 £685 £685 £685 £4,018 £685 £685 £4,718 £10,024 £1,078 £1,792 £5,088 £685 £1,792 £9,020 £1,059 £685 £685 £26,360 £685 £685 £685 £685 £685 £685 £685 £5,088 £10,023 £685 £4,018 £37,831 £4,018 £685 £1,792 £685 £1,816,918 £685 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Table 1. Parameters for Wirral DIP Cost Utility Model. Parameter Distribution Mean Cost of crime -- 12 months before DIP contact Cost of crime - 12 months after DIP contact Cost of DIP Skewed - bootstrapped from data £2,728 Standard deviation £7,261 Skewed - bootstrapped from data £4,762 £7,328 Normal -- estimate based on local data Normal - estimated based on local data Normal -- from DTORS £924 £200 £429 £100 0.05 0.201 Cost of drug treatment QALYs gained 21 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Table 2. Differences in crime volume and costs for Wirral DIP clients, 12 months before and 12 months after DIP contact, by drug tested positive for (excludes homicide). Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Drug tested positive for Both (Cocaine & Opiates) Cocaine Opiates Total Number of clients 12 months pre test 12 months post test Difference 12 months post - 12 months pre test Mean N offences Mean cost of offences Mean N offences Mean cost of offences Difference in mean N offences 54 3.69 £5,560 2.76 £4,246 -0.93 Difference in mean cost of offences -£1,314 166 46 266 2.63 2.8 2.88 £4,808 £3,348 £4,708 1.02 1.09 1.38 £2,570 £1,334 £2,697 -1.61 -1.71 -1.5 -£2,238 -£2,014 -£2,011 22 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Table 3. Wirral Residents Testing Positive in the DIP -- Number of Trigger Offences. Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Groups Compared Difference Significance Overall (n = 266) Mean Number of Offences 12 months 12 months pre test post test 2.8759 1.3835 (pre -- post) 1.4924 p < 0.001 Assessed (n = 68) 2.2647 1.3088 0.9559 Care Planned (n = 141) 2.6809 0.9858 1.6951 No further DIP Contact (n = 57) 4.0877 2.4561 1.6316 23 Not statistically significant ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Table 4. Wirral Drugs Intervention Programme - Economic modelling results. Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Outcome Average 2.5% lower limit 97.5% higher limit Average (including homicide) Cost of crime - before £4,824 £685 £22,584 £10,226 Cost of crime - after £2,802 £0 £22,621 £2,666 Cost of DIP £923 £532 £1,318 £922 Cost of drug treatment £431 £239 £627 £430 QALYs gained 0.052 0.449 -0.348 0.052 Net costs (cost of treatment less cost savings) -£668 -£20,875 £21,225 -£6,207 ICER (compared to do-nothing alternative) Dominates Dominates Dominated Dominates Dominates = less costly and more effective; Dominated = more costly and less effective 24 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT 1 Inputs (Costs) Outputs (benefits) Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 Reduction in cost of crime Cost of the DIP Cost of drug treatment Financial cost to individual victims (insurance, time, lost output etc) Monetary value of human cost (QALY loss) to victims Preventative, police & CJS costs Benefits to offenders Monetary value of QALYs gained from drug treatment 2 Figure 1. Costs and outcomes included in the present study. 25 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Downloaded by [University of Liverpool] at 05:56 01 June 2016 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Figure 2. Average Treatment Outcome Profile psychological health, physical health and quality of life scores at treatment start, review and treatment exit, 2011/12 to 2012/13 (financial years). Scores out of 20. Shown with 95% confidence intervals. N = 1806. 26 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
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