!
Toolsforathrivingfuture
Persistence)in)the)Atmosphere)of)
CO2!Released'During'the'Next'
Four%Years!
Elizabeth*Sawin!
Climate(Interac-ve!
www.climateinteractive.org!
www.climateinteractive.wordpress.com/!
Twi$er:(climateinteract!
5"December"2012!
The$graphic$below$was$featured!in#a#post#on#Climate#Interac0ve’s#blog!on#December&5th,"2012."In"the"
hopes&that&the&graphic&will&spur&produc1ve&dialog&on&college&campus&and&beyond,!this%fact%sheet%
contains(more(details(of#the!analysis!we#did.!
What%we%did:!
We#used#Climate#Interac1ve’s#C"ROADS!computer)simula.on)of)climate)change)for)this)analysis.)C"
ROADS&is&a&climate&model&based&on&IPCC&science.&More&details&on&the&scien:fic&review&and&
documenta*on+of+C"ROADS&can&be&found&here."C"ROADS&has&been&used&by&par2es&within&the&UNFCCC&
climate(nego,a,ons(and(was(one(of(the(models(featured(in(the(UN(Environment(Programs’(series(of(
Emissions'Gap!reports.!
In#C"ROADS&we&created&a&test&pulse&of&carbon&dioxide&emissions&(approximately&160&million&tons&of&CO2!
per$year)$for$each$year$from$2012$"2016.&C"ROADS&calculated&the&frac1on&of!that$pulse$of$CO2!remaining(
in#the#atmosphere#throughout#the#rest#of#century,#as#CO2!was$absorbed$by$plants$and$by$the$oceans.$We$
assumed'‘business'as'usual'emissions’'from'the'rest'of'the'world'based'on'an'IPCC'scenario'known'as'
A1FI,&so&that&the&oceans&and$forests$in$the$simula0on$are$coping$with$emissions$from$other$sources$as$
well.!
In#the#graphic,#we#translated#the#%#CO2#remaining#in#the#atmosphere#into#a#grey#scale,#with#black#
equaling)100%)and)white)equaling)0%.)The)table)below)shows)the)percent)remaining%in%numerical%form,%
along&with&a&representa/ve&column&for&the&gaining&of&a&‘typical’&college&student&and&a&‘typical’&trustee.&By&
the$end$of$the$century$when$2016’s$gradua6ng$class$will$be$around$100$years$old,$slightly$more$than$half$
of#that#ini)al"pulse"of"CO2!would&s(ll&be&in&the&atmosphere.&!
Year!
Age$of$
typical(
college&
student'
gradua&ng(
in#2016!
Age$of$
typical(
Trustee'on'
a"board"in"
2016!
%"of"2012"2016%
emissions'remaining'in'
atmosphere!
2016!
2021!
2026!
2031!
2031!
2041!
2046!
2051!
2056!
2061!
2066!
2071!
2076!
2081!
2086!
2091!
2096!
22!
27!
32!
37!
42!
47!
52!
57!
62!
67!
72!
77!
82!
87!
92!
97!
102!
55!
60!
65!
70!
75!
80!
85!
90!
95!
100!
105!
110!
115!
120!
125!
130!
135!
100%!
97%!
93%!
89%!
89%!
82%!
79%!
75%!
72%!
69%!
67%!
64%!
62%!
59%!
57%!
56%!
54%!
About&Climate&Interactive!
Climate(Interac-ve(creates(interac-ve,(easy"to"use$and$scien*fically$rigorous$tools$that$help$people$
understand)how)to)address)the)complex,)interconnected)challenges)that)affect)our)lives)on)Earth.)!
For$more$information$contact!
Dr.$Elizabeth$Sawin!
esawin@climateinterac+ve.org!
!
climateinteractive.org