AAPICU
ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2014
Frank Newport
Gallup Editor in Chief
Scottsdale, Arizona
February 21, 2014
Copyright © 2014 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.
Five Trends That Are Shaping Our Future
I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT
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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT

Rise of Independents
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PARTY IDENTIFICATION
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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT


Rise of Independents
Increased polarization among those left
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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT



Rise of Independents
Increased polarization among those left
Move to libertarian positions on social issues – Partly as a
distrust of government
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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT




Rise of Independents
Increased polarization among those left
Move to libertarian positions on social issues – Partly as a
distrust of government
Although military still very positively positioned, American
public’s patience wears thin with longest war in nation’s history
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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT





Rise of Independents
Increased polarization among those left
Move to libertarian positions on social issues – Partly as a
distrust of government
America involved in the longest war in nation’s history, and
American public's patience wears thin
Attempts to address major healthcare issue run into headwinds
– Partly as a distrust of government
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I. LOSS OF FAITH IN GOVERNMENT






Rise of Independents
Increased polarization among those left
Move to libertarian positions on social issues – Partly as a
distrust of government
America involved in the longest war in nation’s history, and
American public's patience wears thin
Attempts to address major healthcare issue run into headwinds
– Partly as a distrust of government
Americans eager for dramatic reforms in way government works
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II. THE BIG DIALECTIC: PUSH BACK FROM
THOSE CONVINCED GOVERNMENT MUST FIX
PROBLEMS AND HELP THE DISADVANTAGED
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
“I’m a Democrat. But I believe what Republican Abraham
Lincoln believed: That government should do for people only
what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more. That’s
why my education reform offers more competition, and more
control for schools and states. That’s why we’re getting rid of
regulations that don’t work. That’s why our health care law
relies on a reformed private market, not a government
program.’
“On the other hand, even my Republican friends who complain
the most about government spending have supported federally
financed roads, and clean energy projects, and federal offices
for the folks back home.”
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


"With or without this Congress, I will keep taking actions that
help the economy grow.“
"We can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of
people do really well while a growing number of Americans
barely get by, or we can restore an economy where everyone
gets a fair shot, and everyone does their fair share, and
everyone plays by the same set of rules.“
“Join me in a national commitment to train 2 million
Americans with skills that will lead directly to a job. My
administration has already lined up more companies that want
to help."
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MAJOR DIVIDING POINTS IN AMERICAN
POLITICS
People free to do what
they want morally
without social structure
and cultural constraints
Need social and cultural
constraints on social
structures and moral
issues
No gov’t involvement in
fixing problems, economy
Much gov’t involvement
in fixing problems,
economy
Libertarians
Democrats. liberals
Republicans,
conservatives
?? Populists?
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PROPER ROLE OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
%
%
%
5 Gov’t should take active
steps in every area to
improve life for citizens
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4
8
11
25
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24
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2
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1 Gov’t should do only most
basic functions
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8
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III. AS NEVER BEFORE, DEMOGRAPHICS ARE
DESTINY

Age
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DEMOCRATIC OVER REPUBLICAN GAP: 2013
Leaned Party Identification
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
-15.00%
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BABY BOOM IMPACT: LET ME COUNT THE WAYS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Social Security and Medicare.
Healthcare.
Funeral industry.
Religion.
Travel and vacation market.
Legal industry.
Charity and volunteer work.
Causes and special interests.
Housing industry.
Financial advice industry.
Dining out industry.
Politics.
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III. AS NEVER BEFORE, DEMOGRAPHICS ARE
DESTINY


Age
Ethnicity
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IV. THE CONTINUING IMPACT AND POWER OF
RELIGION
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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND
ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Silver Tsunami
Marital and fertility patterns
Increasing market-sensitive innovations of unbranded
religion
Recognition of well-being and health benefits of religion
Migration to more religious states
Change in relationship between women and religion
Democratic embrace of religion
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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND
ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Silver Tsunami
Marital and fertility patterns
Increasing market-sensitive innovations of unbranded
religion
Recognition of well-being and health benefits of religion
Migration to more religious states
Change in relationship between women and religion
Democratic embrace of religion
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% HIGHLY RELIGIOUS BY AGE
National Adults
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90
2012
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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND
ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Silver Tsunami
Marital and fertility patterns
Increasing market-sensitive innovations of unbranded
religion
Recognition of well-being and health benefits of religion
Migration to more religious states
Change in relationship between women and religion
Democratic embrace of religion
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% HIGHLY RELIGIOUS, BY CHILDREN IN HOME
Yes, have children
No, do not have children
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
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2012
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% HIGHLY RELIGIOUS, BY MARITAL STATUS
Married
Not married
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
2012
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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND
ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Silver Tsunami
Marital and fertility patterns
Increasing market-sensitive innovations of
unbranded religion
Recognition of well-being and health benefits of religion
Migration to more religious states
Change in relationship between women and religion
Democratic embrace of religion
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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND
ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Silver Tsunami
Marital and fertility patterns
Increasing market-sensitive innovations of unbranded
religion
Recognition of well-being and health benefits of
religion
Migration to more religious states
Change in relationship between women and religion
Democratic embrace of religion
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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND
ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Silver Tsunami
Marital and fertility patterns
Increasing market-sensitive innovations of unbranded
religion
Recognition of well-being and health benefits of religion
Migration to more religious states
Change in relationship between women and religion
Democratic embrace of religion
60
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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND
ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Silver Tsunami
Marital and fertility patterns
Increasing market-sensitive innovations of unbranded
religion
Recognition of well-being and health benefits of religion
Migration to more religious states
Change in relationship between women and
religion
Democratic embrace of religion
62
% HIGHLY RELIGIOUS, BY GENDER
75%
Male
Female
65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90
2012
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SEVEN FACTORS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE INFLUENCE AND
ROLE OF RELIGION IN SOCIETY IN THE FUTURE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Silver Tsunami
Marital and fertility patterns
Increasing market-sensitive innovations of unbranded
religion
Recognition of well-being and health benefits of religion
Migration to more religious states
Change in relationship between women and religion
Democratic embrace of religion
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PRESIDENT OBAMA, WHITE HOUSE PRAYER
BREAKFAST, FEBRUARY, 2012

I believe in God’s command to “love thy neighbor as thyself.” I know
the version of that Golden Rule is found in every major religion and
every set of beliefs -– from Hinduism to Islam to Judaism to the
writings of Plato….For me as a Christian, it also coincides with Jesus’s
teaching that “for unto whom much is given, much shall be
required.” It mirrors the Islamic belief that those who’ve been blessed
have an obligation to use those blessings to help others, or the Jewish
doctrine of moderation and consideration for others…..And when I
decide to stand up for foreign aid, or prevent atrocities in places like
Uganda, or take on issues like human trafficking, it’s not just about
strengthening alliances, or promoting democratic values, or projecting
American leadership around the world, although it does all those
things and it will make us safer and more secure. It’s also about the
biblical call to care for the least of these –- for the poor; for those at the
margins of our society. …..
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PRESIDENT OBAMA, WHITE HOUSE PRAYER
BREAKFAST, FEBRUARY, 2012

In my moments of prayer, I’m reminded that faith and values
play an enormous role in motivating us to solve some of our
most urgent problems, in keeping us going when we suffer
setbacks, and opening our minds and our hearts to the needs of
others….We can’t leave our values at the door…I wake up each
morning and I say a brief prayer, and I spend a little time in
scripture and devotion.
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V. 237 YEARS AFTER THE COLONIES UNITED
TO FORM A UNION, STATES REMAIN
IMMENSELY DIFFERENTIATED ON MANY
DIMENSIONS
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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE,
COLLEGE, EDUCATION
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Lower expectations?
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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE,
COLLEGE, EDUCATION
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Lower expectations?
Living at home with deleterious consequences?
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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE,
COLLEGE, EDUCATION
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Lower expectations?
Living at home with deleterious consequences?
College still seen as highly valued, but....
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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE,
COLLEGE, EDUCATION
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Lower expectations?
Living at home with deleterious consequences?
College still seen as highly valued
Online education: Threat or menace?
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A FEW WORDS ABOUT YOUNG PEOPLE,
COLLEGE, EDUCATION
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
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Lower expectations?
Living at home with deleterious consequences?
College still seen as highly valued
The online threat
Choosing and paying for college
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THANK YOU!
QUESTIONS?
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