Applied Energy 164 (2016) 133–139 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy An economic comparison of battery energy storage to conventional energy efficiency technologies in Colorado manufacturing facilities Kalen Nataf 1, Thomas H. Bradley ⇑ Colorado State University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Campus Delivery 1374, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1374, United States h i g h l i g h t s Energy storage’s and efficiency technologies’ economic payback is compared. Conventional efficiency technologies have shorter payback for the customers studied. Hypothetical incentives can lower the payback periods of battery energy storage. a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 24 August 2015 Received in revised form 11 November 2015 Accepted 26 November 2015 Available online 17 December 2015 Keywords: Battery storage Demand reduction Energy efficiency Industrial a b s t r a c t Battery energy storage (BES) is one of a set of technologies that can be considered to reduce electrical loads, and to realize economic value for industrial customers. To directly compare the energy savings and economic effectiveness of BES to more conventional energy efficiency technologies, this study collected detailed information regarding the electrical loads associated with four Colorado manufacturing facilities. These datasets were used to generate a set of three scenarios for each manufacturer: implementation of a BES system, implementation of a set of conventional energy efficiency recommendations, and the implementation of both BES and conventional energy efficiency technologies. Evaluating these scenarios’ economic payback period allows for a direct comparison between the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency technologies and that of BES, demonstrates the costs and benefits of implementing both BES and energy efficiency technologies, and characterizes the effectiveness of potential incentives in improving economic payback. For all of the manufacturing facilities modeled, results demonstrate that BES is the least cost-effective among the energy efficiency technologies considered, but that simultaneous implementation of both BES and energy efficiency technologies has a negligible effect on the BES payback period. Incentives are demonstrated to be required for BES to achieve near-term payback period parity with more conventional energy efficiency technologies. Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The rate structures that are commonly in place for small to medium-sized manufacturers can provide incentives for energy efficiency, peak demand reductions, and load shifting. For Colorado manufacturing industrial facilities, the costs of electrical energy service is broken up into three or four scalable costs: a connection cost (with a price measured in $ per connection), an energy cost (with a price measured in $ per kilowatt-hour), a peak demand cost (with a price measured in $ per kilowatt), and a coincidental ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 (970) 491 3539. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (K. Nataf), Thomas.Bradley@ colostate.edu (T.H. Bradley). 1 Tel.: +1 (720) 212 9743. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.11.102 0306-2619/Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. demand cost (with price also measured in $ per kilowatt). Utility companies calculate peak demand in kilowatts (kW) by measuring fifteen minute intervals of the user’s energy consumption, in units of kilowatt hours (kW h), and dividing it by the amount of hours in that interval, 0.25 h [1]. They then sort these demand calculations for an entire month, and the maximum demand calculated is the peak demand. This means a single fifteen minute period in a month dictates the cost a customer pays for peak demand for the entire month. Coincident demand is the customer’s electric demand during the one hour each month, called the peak hour, where the wholesale electricity generation and transmission provider supplied the highest load [2]. The high price of these demand costs generally incents consumers to minimize both their peak loads and their loads during the typical peak hour (e.g. early evening in the winter and mid-afternoon in the summer) [27]. 134 K. Nataf, T.H. Bradley / Applied Energy 164 (2016) 133–139 The most common methods of reducing peak demand and loads during the peak hour are implementing new or retrofit energy efficient technologies and load shifting techniques. As advancements in technology are made, new products become available that can either replace or be added to an existing piece of equipment to improve its energy efficiency (e.g. variable frequency drives, high-efficiency motors, light emitting diode (LED) lighting). These energy efficient technologies effectively reduce the total peak and peak hour loads by reducing the load of that equipment during its hours of operation [3,4]. Manufacturers implement these energy efficiency technologies preferentially because of their costeffectiveness and the presence of utility incentives [5]. Load shifting is another preferred technique for reducing demand charges [6,7]. Load shifting lowers the peak and peak hour loads by moving the time or intensity of operation of individual equipment to lower cost times of the day. This can be done a variety of ways including technologically (e.g. thermal storage [8], demand controllers [7]) and manually through equipment operational scheduling and employee training. Although this method has the potential to be more successful at lowering peak and peak hour loads than energy efficient technologies, it is dependent on the individual equipment loads that make up the peak and peak hour total load [8]. Furthermore, it is much harder to implement this method in manufacturing facilities, as shifting equipment loads can interfere with the manufacturing process and cut into the productivity, and thereby the profits, of that facility [7–11]. Behind-the-meter (BTM) battery energy storage (BES) systems aim to reduce electricity costs by providing a way to redistribute the peak and peak hour loads without the productivity losses that might be associated with standard load shifting techniques. Although there has been research on BES in several applications such as electricity grid frequency regulation [12,13] and renewable generation storage [13–16], the business case for near-term BES is not well-defined. BES technology is presently being pushed to market through mandates and incentives. As an example, in California, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has set a procurement target of 1.325 GW of energy storage (including BTM) by 2020, for installation no later than 2024 [20]. Several studies have shown BTM BES to have moderate potential for lowering the peak demand of a facility and thereby the associated costs in a behind-the-meter (or customer-sited) application [12–19]. However, these studies have not sought to consider BTM BES as one of a set of energy cost saving technologies that could be implemented separately or together, and have not been able to consider BES’s role among the set of energy and cost saving technologies. If energy efficient technologies and load shifting techniques were to be applied at the same facility as a BTM BES system, the value of BES in reducing energy costs may be misestimated by the models currently proposed in literature. With the pathway toward commercialization of BTM BES already in progress, the energy cost savings associated with BES should be assessed relative to other energy efficiency technologies and more common load shifting techniques. To perform this evaluation, this study measures a broad set of loads in four case study industrial facilities, and proposes the implementation of both BES and more conventional energy efficient technologies for each facility. The electricity cost savings and payback period associated with each of these technologies can thereby be directly compared to that of BES. This analysis allows us to understand the implications of installing conventional energy cost reduction technologies prior to BES, directly compares the costeffectiveness of these technologies to BES, and provides insight as to what the utility incentives in Colorado would need to be to bring BES into payback parity with other energy cost saving technologies. 2. Materials and methods 2.1. Summary This research is based on four case studies of different types of manufacturing facilities located in Colorado, USA. In each of these facilities, the electrical loads associated with large operational equipment were data-logged and the total electrical load of the facility was collected. Other observational information that could shed insight on how energy was being used was also gathered. Using the information gathered, the estimated costs and savings of applicable new and retrofit energy efficient technologies were calculated using Department of Energy (DOE) and CSU Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) toolsets. To assess the cost-effectiveness of BES for each case study, the National Renewable Energy Lab’s (NREL) Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool for Behindthe-Meter applications (BLAST-BTM) was used to estimate the costs and savings at each facility both before and after the estimated savings were applied to the collected load profile. The cost-effectiveness for all of these technologies are compared using the metric of payback period, which has shown to be a primary consideration in an industrial facility’s decision to implement energy efficiency measures [21–25]. 2.2. Data gathering and acquisition A walk-through of the facility was performed at each manufacturing plant to gain an understanding of the manufacturing process, and to locate large energy uses in the facility. While on the walk-through, specific information was gathered that would later assist in estimating the savings of energy efficient technology including hours of operation, lighting counts, nameplate information on outdated or energy inefficient equipment, air leak identification, and more. One to two pieces of equipment that represented a significant contribution to the facilities’ total load were then data-logged using HOBOware data loggers (Onset Computer Corporation, Bourne, MA) and set to record for two week periods. This data collection period was chosen due to time constraints determined by the plants and the storage capacity of the data loggers. Data were collected on intervals varying from ten seconds to one minute, and were averaged in MATLAB to fifteen minute intervals as this is the collection period considered by the utility for peak demand and coincident demand cost calculations. The total load of each facility over the same two week period was also collected either using a power quality analyzer in three minute intervals and averaged to fifteen minutes or in fifteen minute intervals in datasets provided by the utility. The benefit of logging the individual loads of large equipment is that it adds depth to our understanding of the electrical loads by showing how each load interacts and contributes to the total load of the facility, especially during peak and peak hour loads (Fig. 1). Additionally, when calculating the energy savings that might be associated with retrofit technology, we can apply that savings only to periods when that machine is on instead of applying it over the total load profile during the estimated hours of operation. The information obtained in the walk-through and data collection was then used to identify applicable new and retrofit energy efficient technologies and to estimate the associated costs and savings. 2.3. Modeling of energy efficiency technologies IAC toolsets developed over the 31 years of Colorado State University’s IAC program, validated and approved by the DOE IAC program management, were used to estimate the associated energy savings of implementing energy efficient new and retrofit K. Nataf, T.H. Bradley / Applied Energy 164 (2016) 133–139 700 Facility Total Load Air Compressor Load Refrigeration Load 600 Load [kW] 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Time [Days] Fig. 1. Subsample of Plant 4 load profiles generated by measuring electrical loads. technologies. The inputs for these calculations are collected during the walk-through process and are specific to the equipment installed in each plant. The demand and usage saving costs were calculated using prorated rates (shown in Table 1) based on the previous year’s rate adjustments, seasonal variation, and taxes from the site-specific utility. The capital costs associated with these implementations are determined from the purchase prices at online retailers such as Grainger.com, and from quotes given by vendors of each technology. Where applicable, in-house labor costs are estimated at $30/h for a duration of time determined through interviews with plant staff or technology vendors in accordance with best-practices at the IAC. Discounted payback periods are then computed for each piece of equipment that the new or retrofit efficient technology is applied. The discount rate used for this research was 2.4%, equal to the sum of the average annual United States inflation rate over 2014 (1.6%), and the average estimated annual growth rate of industrial electricity costs through 2040 (0.8%) as provided by the Energy Information Agency [26]. Beyond calculating payback period of these technologies to compare to that of BES, the estimated savings were applied to the original load profile to analyze the change in feasibility of BES at each plant. 2.4. Modeling of BES BES function, optimization and economics, were modeled in NREL’s BLAST-BTM model. BLAST-BTM is a MATLAB-based simulation that uses 1 year’s history of the load in a facility to estimate the potential cost and savings of an optimal BES system, determined by an incremental rate of return (IRR) analysis. Given the power of the BES system (P), and the energy of the BES system (E), the modeled upfront costs of a BES system design (C, in 2015 USD) were defined as [24], C ¼ ð500 PÞ þ ð500 EÞ þ 10; 000 The BLAST-BTM simulation assumes perfect 48 h load forecasting and negligible battery degradation over the life of the system. For a given battery sizing and input load profile, BLAST-BTM seeks to minimize the peak net demand over a 1 year time frame as measured over 15-min intervals. The calculation of battery commands to achieve this end is divided into two time scales. First, a 15-min net demand target is optimized using a constrained SQP method. The optimal net demand target represents the lowest level to which the peak net meter load can be reduced with the support 135 of the battery. Second, faster battery commands are computed and implemented every 1 min within each 15-min interval to best achieve the interval load target, taking into account hardware limitations and fluctuations in net demand. This procedure defines an optimal battery dispatch strategy, which is repeated across a span of battery sizes to define a battery size optimized for IRR. The outputs of the BLAST-BTM simulation were used to compute a discounted payback for the BES installation. The comparisons in this research are therefore based on comparisons of payback periods of conventional energy efficient technologies to the payback period of BES systems. For those plants that were instrumented for 1 year, the entire 1 year dataset was input to BLAST-BTM. For those plants that were instrumented for less than 1 year, the dataset was concatenated until 365 days of continuous data were present. The rate structure of each facility, adjusting for taxes, was input for each facility’s load profile, respectively. Both the original total load profile of the facility and the ‘‘efficient” profile after applying the savings from applicable energy efficient new and retrofit technology were run through BLAST-BTM (see Fig. 2). The difference provides a metric of the costs of applying energy efficient technologies on the economic value of BES, for each facility. An increase in payback period demonstrates that the mechanisms by which BES is achieving energy cost savings are being usurped by the more conventional energy cost saving technologies. 3. Results The analysis of each case study focused on comparing the payback of applicable energy efficient technologies to BES, analyzing the effects of implementing those identified energy efficient technologies on the feasibility of implementing BES, and what a potential incentive program, based on current and real incentive programs that are currently unavailable in Colorado, might look like. 3.1. Direct comparison of energy efficient technologies to BES Relevant and realizable energy efficient retrofit and new technologies were identified during the walk-throughs of each plant. Although there is overlap in the recommendation opportunities found at each facility, the applicability of these technologies are not pre-determined prior to the walk-through and do not have the same outcomes in terms of cost and savings among the facilities. For each recommendation at each plant and each recommendation for the entire study the aggregate number of times that it was implemented, its payback period, and modeled load reduction are presented in Table 1. Due to privacy concerns, the case studies are referred to as Plant 1, Plant 2, Plant 3, and Plant 4 corresponding to the order in which the energy audits were performed. Only six different energy efficiency recommendations could be made, however several were made at more than one facility, and were recommended on several different pieces of equipment at the same facility. Of the energy efficient technologies recommended to the four plants in this study, repairing air leaks in the compressed air lines and upgrading to efficient lighting were the most common recommendations, as they were implementable at all four plants (Table 1). In total, 129 energy cost saving recommendations were made (Table 1). The most frequent recommendation was replacing the inefficient fan motors on evaporator units with electronically commutated motors, which was recommended for implementation on 60 different motors. However, of that recommendation, 90% were applied at Plant 4. This was a large meat packaging plant where the entire production space was cooled to less than 34 F. Upgrading the plants’ current lighting with up-todate efficient lighting had the largest effect on reducing the total 136 K. Nataf, T.H. Bradley / Applied Energy 164 (2016) 133–139 Table 1 Quantity, Payback, and Load Reduction of Energy Cost Saving Technologies Recommended for Each Colorado Manufacturing Plant (NA = Technology was not applicable). Plant 1 Plant 2 Plant 3 Plant 4 Prorated utility rates $17.55 $0.04456 /kW /kW h $7.55 $0.04456 /kW /kW h $16.00 $0.0575 /kW /kW h $18.80 $0.0440 /kW /kW h New and retrofit technologies # Payback period (years) Electrical load reduction (kW) # Payback period (years) Electrical load reduction (kW) # Payback period (years) Electrical load reduction (kW) # Payback period (years) Electrical load reduction (kW) High efficiency motors Efficient lighting EC fan motors on evaporators Repair air leaks Controls on air cooled chiller Replace compressed air nozzles with blowers NA NA NA 2 19.64 5.3 4 9.2 1.5 NA NA NA 1 6 2.85 3.94 2.0 1.1 6 NA 4.20 NA 23.5 NA 5 NA 2.6 NA 13.3 NA 3 54 0.87 2.38 71.0 6.9 22 1 0.64 1.70 6.3 9.1 9 NA 0.21 NA 9.0 NA 1 NA 0.4 NA 0.3 NA 13 NA 0.04 NA 20.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2 0.35 25.0 Totals 30 1.60 18.5 17 3.90 37.7 10 3.11 15.1 72 1.83 123.1 Plant 3, and Plant 4 were 22.4 years, 34.8 years, 15.6 years, and 10.1 years, respectively. 180 160 3.2. Effects of energy efficient technologies on BES valuation Electrical Power [kW] 140 120 100 80 60 40 Net Demand before Battery Net Demand after Battery Net Demand Target 20 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Time [days] Fig. 2. BLAST-BTM simulation for one year load history of Plant 1. The BLAST-BTM derived optimal net demand target is plotted along with facility net demand with and without BES. The BES is controlled to enable the facility to not surpass its net demand target. load at Plants 2, 3 and 4 and totaled to 110 kW of total reductions. Repairing compressed air leaks had the lowest total payback period of all the recommendations at 0.2 years due to the low cost of these recommendations. All of the results in Table 1 were calculated for comparison with the BES results for each plant. The BLAST-BTM simulation was then used to calculate the associated costs and savings of the collected load profile at each facility. These four plants include a small plant with a load of 100 kW up to a large plant reaching peak loads of 650 kW. Each plant had a different electric utility and, therefore, a different rate structure. Demand rates varied among the facilities from Fort Collins Utility’s E300 rate ($5.90/kW for peak demand) to Xcel Energy’s Primary General rate (where $18.795/kW represents a weighted demand charge to model both coincident and peak demand). Before consideration of any energy efficiency technologies, each of the plants’ utility bills were made up of approximately 50% demand charges, and 50% electricity charges. For each of these inputs of load profile and utility rates, BLAST-BTM outputs the characteristics of an optimized BES system design including hardware cost, annual savings, annual operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, and IRR [24]. Using the hardware cost and annual savings less the O&M costs, the optimized BES discounted payback period for Plant 1, Plant 2, To analyze the effects of implementing the other energy cost savings recommendations on BES valuation, the estimated cost savings from the facility specific recommendations described in Section 3.1 were applied to each facility’s corresponding load profile, as illustrated in Fig. 3. If the load reduction was being applied to a data-logged machine, then it was only applied when a load was being drawn by that equipment. If the load reduction was on a non-logged piece of equipment, then the hours of operation were estimated from interviews with plant staff, and the load reduction was applied over that time period. These new load profiles therefore model the load of the facility including the energy savings that would be associated with the implementation of the energy efficiency technologies. These new load profiles, labeled ‘‘efficient load profiles” in Fig. 3, were then run back through BLAST-BTM to determine whether or not the economic value available to the energy efficiency technologies and the economic value available to the BES are mutually exclusive. Overall, there were negligible changes in payback periods between the original load profile and the efficient load profile (Table 2). Although the savings due to the implementation of BES decrease in all scenarios, the optimal battery energy, and therefore the BES costs also decrease. The net change in payback period of less than 0.5 years was judged to be negligible relative to modeling and economic uncertainties. 3.3. Effects of a hypothetical incentive programs on BES implementation An important consideration for understanding the results of this study is that the purchase of most of the energy efficient technologies considered in this research are incented by the utilities in Colorado, whereas BES is not. However, in other states, notably California, BES installation is incented by the utilities. Therefore, two hypothetical incentive programs were considered for the case studies in this research, to demonstrate the changes to BES valuation a hypothetical Colorado BES incentive program would provide. The first hypothetical incentive program is based on the realworld incentives offered for BES through Southern California Edison’s (SCE) Self Generation Incentive Program, and is labeled as the SCE Incentive model. This program offers incentives up to a 137 K. Nataf, T.H. Bradley / Applied Energy 164 (2016) 133–139 demand cost savings for the Colorado simulations were higher relative to the costs of the systems. 800 Facility Total Load Facility Total Load (Efficient Load Profile) Air Compressor Load Air Compressor Load with VFD Refrigeration Load Refrigeration Load with Motor/Control Improvements 700 600 4. Discussion 4.1. Comparison of BES to other energy cost saving technologies for Colorado manufacturers Load [kW] 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Time [Days] Fig. 3. Subsample of Plant 4 load profiles before (measured) and after applying energy efficiency technologies (simulated). maximum of 60% of the project’s cost. This includes $1.46 per installed watt of battery storage for the two hour rated capacity of the system and an additional 20% of the system cost if the system is manufactured by a California supplier [29]. A second hypothetical set of incentives are based on the Xcel Energy custom rebate program that offers $0.40/W saved by a technology up to 60% of the project’s cost [5], and is labeled as the Colorado Incentive model. It should be noted that not all of the case study locations are in Xcel service territory and therefore are only hypothetically able to realize Xcel incentives. The BLAST-BTM simulation has inputs for maximum fractional incentive, incentive offered in dollar per installed kW, and minimum hours at rated capacity needed for incentive. Thus the simulations were rerun using each plant’s original load profile and the characteristics of the first hypothetical incentive program’s criterion. Since the second hypothetical incentive program is based on kW saved and not kW installed, the simulations of the original load profile from Section 3.1 were analyzed for the maximum peak reduction for each case study and the incentives were retroactively calculated and applied. The results from these incentive programs are shown in Table 3. Payback periods from the SCE Incentive simulations are less than those of Colorado Incentive simulations by between 2 and 9 years. In the SCE simulations, the battery size was increased to a size where the two hour rated energy of the battery was high enough to get the full 60% maximum fractional incentive offered by the utility. The demand reduction fraction relative to the battery sizes were higher for the Colorado Incentive simulations than for those of the SCE simulations, meaning the Although the economic value of BES storage has been analyzed in previous research, no other research has directly compared BES and other energy cost saving technologies. Neubauer and Simpson (2015), looking at 98 facilities, showed median paybacks of large BES systems to be around ten years, with small BES systems reaching as low as three years [15]. These simulations used load data from EnerNOC’s online database, did not correlate loads with electricity prices, considered only California electricity costs and incentives, and did not have the depth of information required to look at BES as one of a set of energy cost saving technologies that could be applied to each facility. For this study, we can make a more direct comparison between the payback period of individual energy efficiency implementations and BES implementation. Fig. 4 shows a box plot of the payback periods of the energy cost saving recommendations that had more than five datum points and the BLAST-BTM optimized BES systems in each facility. These are not the plant-aggregated payback periods shown in Table 1, but rather the individual paybacks for each piece of equipment the recommendation was applied too. Additionally, this figure does not represent outliers (determined by 1.5 times the inter quartile range), thereby removing the paybacks of six air leak outliers. Rating the energy efficiency technologies from longest to shortest median payback period and including those not shown in Fig. 4, are BES, high-efficiency motor replacement, efficient lighting, replacing evaporator fan motors with electronically commutated (EC) motors, adding floating head pressure controls to the air cooled chiller, replacing compressed air nozzles with portable blowers, and repairing compressed air leaks. The maximum BES payback period is almost fifteen years higher than the maximum payback period of any other energy cost saving recommendation. The minimum payback period for BES is higher than the median of all other recommendations except for the recommendation to replace conventional shaded pole motors with high efficiency motors. These results demonstrate that BES is the least cost-effective option of those considered in this study. 4.2. Comparison of BES payback period to nominal energy efficiency payback periods Under the conditions considered for these manufacturers, BES are unlikely to be implemented in practice. In this study, the minimum payback period observed for BES was 10 years. Of the top fifty implemented IAC recommendations ever made, Table 2 Comparison of BLAST-BTM simulation results before and after applying conventional energy efficiency technologies. Plant Load profile input in BLAST-BTM simulation Battery size (kW h) Inverter size (kW) BES system cost BES-derived annual savings Annual O&M costs for BES BES payback period (years) Plant 1 Original load profile Efficient load profile 22 19 19 18 $30,328 $28,426 $2469 $2336 $703 $684 22.4 22.46 Plant 2 Original load profile Efficient load profile 24 18 32 28 $38,032 $33,015 $2403 $2152 $780 $730 34.85 34.35 Plant 3 Original load profile Efficient load profile 23 21 16 15 $29,387 $28,351 $2992 $2874 $694 $684 15.58 15.69 Plant 4 Original load profile Efficient load profile 20 16 29 27 $34,393 $31,903 $4625 $4385 $744 $719 10.09 9.88 138 K. Nataf, T.H. Bradley / Applied Energy 164 (2016) 133–139 Table 3 Effects of Hypothetical Incentive Programs on Simulated BES Value and Payback Periods. Plant Load profile input in BLAST-BTM simulation Battery size (kW h) Inverter size (kW) BES system cost BES-derived annual savings Annual O&M costs for BES Achieved load reduction (kW) Incentive Payback period (years) Plant 1 SCE incentive Colorado incentive 28 22 21 19 $34,469 $30,328 $2730 $2469 $745 $703 20.6 22.8 $20,681 $9112 7.7 14.3 Plant 2 SCE incentive Colorado incentive 43 24 40 32 $51,441 $38,032 $3063 $2403 $914 $780 40.3 31.5 $30,864 $12,602 11.0 19.9 Plant 3 SCE incentive Colorado incentive 25 23 16 16 $30,892 $29,387 $3106 $2992 $709 $694 16.2 15.6 $18,535 $6233 5.6 11.7 Plant 4 SCE incentive Colorado incentive 38 20 35 29 $46,657 $34,393 $5372 $4625 $867 $744 35.0 28.9 $27,959 $11,564 4.4 6.4 40 25 30 Payback Period [years] Payback Period [years] 35 25 20 15 10 20 15 10 5 5 0 BES Motors Lighting EC Fan Motors Air Leaks 0 Motors Fig. 4. Box plot comparing discounted payback periods for energy cost saving recommendations. BES with Colorado Incentives BES with SCE Incentives Lighting EC Fan Air Leaks Motors Fig. 5. Box plot comparing energy cost saving recommendations to BES with hypothetical incentives applied. recommended at least 10 times, the longest payback was 4.7 years [30]. Thus, the range of BES payback for these industrial facilities is well above the 5 year payback period that the IAC program has shown to have high implementation success. Additionally, the results of this study’s economic simulation are based on idealized conditions including perfect load forecasting, zero battery degradation, and long-term utility rate stability. Payback period for the BES systems would increase were more real-world conditions able to be considered. demonstrate that incentives can be a means to make BES payback period competitive with conventional energy efficiency technologies. The effect of our set of hypothetical incentives is considered in Fig. 5. In general, both sets of incentives improve the payback period competitiveness of BES, but neither is able to reach the threshold of a five year payback period that would warrant BES’s consideration as an industrially-relevant energy cost saving technology. 4.3. Means to improve BES competitiveness for Colorado manufacturers 5. Conclusion There are several trends that could improve the cost competitiveness of BES in Colorado and other locations in the future. First, with lithium-ion battery costs forecasted to decrease in time, BES technology may become less capital cost intensive [28,31]. The results of this study demonstrate that implementing conventional energy efficiency technologies would have negligible changes on the valuation of BES. Thus, a less capital cost intensive system would be cost competitive with conventional energy efficiency technologies. Second, this study was unable to compare BES to the economic costs and benefits of conventional load shifting techniques. These techniques were not found to be applicable in any of the facilities or case studies. This perhaps demonstrates how difficult it is to implement these techniques in manufacturing plants without affecting production, and adds to the argument that BES has a place in BTM demand reduction applications. Without the negative implications of productivity loss, BES may be a production-independent means to achieve peak load reduction in manufacturing plants. Finally, the results presented in this study This study collected detailed information on electricity loads in a set of four Colorado industrial facilities, which allowed for battery storage to be considered part of a set of energy cost saving technologies that may or may not be implemented together. This allowed for a direct comparison between the cost-effectiveness of these technologies and that of BES, showed the implications of installing these technologies prior to BES, and provided information on what incentives utilities could provide to make BES a more attractive, energy cost saving technology. Of the six different cost saving recommendations performed 129 times during the four case studies, only one, standard-efficiency motor replacement with high-efficiency motors, had a median payback period within the range of BES implementation costs. This demonstrates that BES was the least economical option to reduce energy costs for these manufacturing facilities. The implementation of BES after the estimated savings of retrofit and cost saving technologies were applied to the originally collected loads showed negligible changes in discounted payback period, demonstrating that implementing K. Nataf, T.H. Bradley / Applied Energy 164 (2016) 133–139 conventional energy efficiency technologies does not decrease the valuation of BES. Adding hypothetical incentives, in general, lowers the paybacks of BES but does not move BES below the five year payback period threshold. Together these results demonstrate that BES is not currently competitive with other energy cost saving technologies. As battery prices decrease, BES technology may become more cost competitive and would then have potential to be implemented into the market as it reduces energy costs and can be used in combination with more conventional energy cost saving technologies. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the technical contributions of Dr. Jeremy Neubauer of the National Renewable Energy Lab, Mike Kostrzewa of the Colorado State University Industrial Assessment Center. References [1] Electric Power Research Institute. A system for understanding retail electric rate structures. Technical update 1021962; 2011. 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