CHINA
2016-17 MARKET CONDITIONS
Source: Oxford Economics, April 2016
The pace of economic expansion is forecast
to trend downward in the coming years as
China’s exports and infrastructure expenditures
continue to decline. Looser monetary policy
and rising domestic consumption from an
emerging middle class will partly offset the
effects, but growing competition from other
manufacturing centres will limit China’s future
growth potential.
2016
GDP
2017
6.2%
Trend
160
6.0%
Relative value of CNY vs. EUR, CAD, USD, AUD
2008 = 100
EUR
140
Consumer spending
7.5%
7.0%
Unemployment
4.1%
4.1%
100
Inflation
2.2%
2.1%
80
Less expensive to visit
Canada versus 2008
CAD
120
AUD
USD
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
The strong Yuan (relative to the CAD) in 2016
will continue to make Canada a better value
destination for Chinese visitors.
OUTBOUND TRAVEL
Chinese long-haul (LH) travel1 more than
doubled between 2008 and 2015 with double
digit growth rates to all major world regions.
With slowing economic growth, the growth
of outbound travel will likely slowdown in the
coming years.
Canada outperformed Chinese LH travel during
the same period. Chinese arrivals to Canada in
2015 (494,000) were three times greater than in
2008 (160,000).
Source: Tourism Economics
400
19.4 LH trips
in 2015
China Outbound
2008 = 100
Long-haul destination share
23%
350
300
8%
4. Switzerland
6%
5. Australia
5%
Short-haul
150
Long-haul
100
50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4%
3%
8. Netherlands
3%
9. Spain
3%
10. Canada
3%
Source: International Travel Survey, Statistics Canada
700,000
2014
2015
Est.
Arrivals (,000s)
446
485
558
Y/Y %
+ 29.2%
+ 8.7%
+ 15.0%
Receipts ($M)
$1,022
$1,053
$1,305
Avg. spend
per trip
$2,289
$2,169
$2,338
Overnight Arrivals to Canada
2008 = 100
485,000 Peak arrivals (2015)
500,000
300,000
100,000
2013
2014
TRAVEL TO CANADA: PLEASURE TRIPS
2015
2016
Forecast
2016
Source: Destination Canada estimates based on ITS data, Statistics Canada
Trip Purpose (,000s)
240
Pleasure trips, 2015
200
CN
17%
47%
160
120
Business
Pleasure
VFR
Other
80
40
0
6. Austria
7. United Arab Emirates
Canada
2008
Approximately 485,000 Chinese travellers
visited Canada during 2015 generating
$1.05 billion in tourist receipts and
supporting about 7,400 jobs.
2011
2012
2013
2014
CANADIAN DESTINATIONS VISITED, 2015
Air China’s new service (Beijing – Montréal)
will provide opportunities for Canada to
grow Québec and eastern Canada’s share of
Chinese visitors.
12%
200
overnight arrivals from China is expected to
continue expanding, with DC forecasting a 15%
growth in 2016.
Chinese pleasure visitors had longer trips,
average spend per night, and average spend
per trip than the DC overseas average.
2. France
3. Germany
China emerged as Canada’s 2nd largest
overseas inbound market in 2015 in arrivals,
and largest in terms of receipts, representing
an estimated 12% of Canada’s overseas (excl.
US) tourist export receipts.
Pleasure travel in 2015 declined by 18% from
2014, representing only 17% of all trips, while
VFR continued to expand its share of trips to
47%.
13%
250
CANADA’S PERFORMANCE AT-A-GLANCE
Buoyed by ADS, a favourable exchange rate,
growing air service and a relatively large
population (1.3 million) of Chinese Canadians,
1. United States
77%
Total DC
Overseas
Duration (nights)
14.3
13.4
Avg. spend per trip
$2,807
$2,321
Avg. spend per night
$195
$187
2015
Source: DC estimates based on ITS, Statistics Canada, 2015
Share of visitors3
Avg. annual visits (,000s)
North
BC
AB
MB/SK
ON
QC
Atlantic
<1%
47%
18%
4%
50%
16%
5%
3
227
86
21
245
75
26
April 2016 | 1 of 2
CHINA
OVERNIGHT VISITORS BY AGE GROUP, 2014
Age Groups
Total
Leisure
Business
<19
7.8%
14.7%
0.0%
20-34
31.6%
19.0%
40.2%
35-44
18.7%
25.6%
28.8%
45-54
14.7%
17.4%
17.8%
55-64
11.6%
11.3%
6.3%
>65
12.2%
9.2%
1.8%
Not Stated
3.4%
2.8%
5.2%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: International Travel Survey, Statistics Canada, 2014
Millenial visitors (aged 20-34 years) account for the largest share of total visitation from China at
32%. Millennials account for 19% of leisure trips and 40% of business trips from China.
AIR SERVICE TO CANADA Seat capacity to Canada will grow 27% in 2016.
New service includes Xamien Airlines’ thrice
weekly Xiamen-Vancouver flight and Hainan
Airlines’ four-flight weekly Beijing-Calgary. In
addition, all airlines serving Canada from China
will grow capacity by double-digit rates in 2016.
China now has year-round direct air service to
Canada from seven gateway cities: Shanghai,
Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu,
Kunming and Xiamen.
With the addition of new routes from Beijing to
Montreal and Calgary in 2015-2016, Canada’s
four largest metropolitan areas are now served
with non-stop flights to China.
Source: Diio Mi, April 2016
Traveller routing to Canada, 2015
2016 seats (,000s)
Source: International Travel Survey, Statistics Canada
Total
3%
11%
69%
Y/Y %
262
27.2%
BC
697
143
25.9%
ON
457
62
15.6%
Air via US
QC
49
36
293%
Land (from US)
AB
20
20
New
Direct from Overseas
18%
Y/Y #
1,223
Sea
In 2015, approximately 69% China’s visitors to
Canada arrived by air directly from overseas
and 30% entered Canada via the US, including
18% by air.
TRAVEL PLANNING
Role of travel agent
Role of travel agent is declining for trips to Canada: in our 2014 study, 85% of recent visitors to
Canada consulted with a travel agent for information or to book versus 92% in our 2012 study
Booking channel for flights
Visitors to Canada are shifting away from travel agents towards online retailers: in our 2014 study,
50% of recent visitors booked their flights through a travel agent, down from 60% in 2012
Travel agent ≈ 50%, Direct with airline* ≈ 25%, Retailer online ≈ 25%
*note: overall trends show a shift from travel agents towards both online/mobile and direct to
suppliers (air, hotel, etc.); there has also been a rapid reversal in business done through call
centres versus online/mobile – Ctrip (China’s largest OTA) reports that 90% of business is now
done through online/mobile channels.
Planning timeframe
15% at least 4 months prior, 85% within 3 months of travelling (Source: GTW, 2012)
Booking timeframe
22% at least 4 months prior, 78% within 3 months of travelling (Source: Intervistas, 2015)
TRAVEL TRADE
Key accounts include: China CYTS,
Beijing CAISSA Int’l, Total Travel Int’l, Utour,
Shanghai CYTS, Shanghai JinJiang, GZL Int’l,
Guangdong Nanhu Int’l plus leading OTAs
(Ctrip and Tuniu)
FIT growing rapidly, particularly self- drive/RV,
looking at experiences away from the main
tourism icons e.g. polar bears (MB), Aurora (AB/
NT/YT), Yukon/NWT being linked with summer
trips to BC/AB; interest in Nunavut among highend niche travellers – Northwest passage boat
cruise; general cruise also growing (i.e. Alaska,
Atlantic Canada – New England) with Statistics
Canada data suggesting a growth rate in the
neighbourhood of 30% for the Alaska-YVR
Inside Passage cruise itinerary. Atlantic Canada
will attract FIT travelers and there is increased
demand for themed products such as golf,
fishing, photography plus summer/winter ESL/
Leisure camps
Group travel demand will grow particularly from
the southern China cities and regions served by
the proposed new air routes such as Xiamen,
Chongqing, Hangzhou.
DEFINITIONS
1
Long-haul (LH) travel
Travel beyond northeast Asia and mid-haul destinations in southeast Asia
2
Other Leisure trip to Canada
A trip where the main reason was something other than holiday, vacation, visiting friends and
family or business. Common reasons include educational study, personal motives (e.g. wedding,
medical), in transit and shopping.
3
Share of visitors
The share of visitors by province/region will sum to more than 100% because a visitor may visit
more than one province or region.
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