How much CO2 does it take to grow a loaf of bread?∗ Jesse Brunner Introduction: Agriculture and greenhouse gas emissions Agriculture provides important ecosystem services in the forms of food and fiber, but can also convey many disservices to agroecosystems themselves and to the ecosystems affected by agricultural practices. In particular, agricultural activities contribute substantial amounts of greenhouse gases, including more methane and nitrous oxide than any other human activity. For example, Duxbury (1994) estimated that agriculture contributes 25%, 65% and 90% of all anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide (N2 O), respectively. Several processes identified below are responsible for greenhouse gas emissions in production agriculture: • Fossil fuels are oxidized to provide energy for machinery involved in tilling, planting and harvesting. • Initial cultivation of previously untilled soil results in substantial losses of carbon previously stored in soil organic matter (Robertson and Grace, 2004). This occurs because tillage increases oxygen supply to soil organisms and exposes previously protected soil organic matter to decomposers. • Inputs such as nitrogen fertilizer, irrigation and manure can increase plant productivity and soil carbon sequestration, but don’t necessarily result in a net decrease in carbon dioxide emissions due to the fossil fuel energy requirements to provide these inputs Schlesinger (1999) • Nitrogen fertilization and tillage decrease the amount of CH4 sequestered by soils because of a decrease in the abundance of methanotrophic bacteria in soil (Conrad, 1996). ∗ This lab has been inspired by (and the introduction largely taken from) Wilke, B. J. and J. Kunkle. February 2009. What does agriculture have to do with climate change? Teaching Issues and Experiments in Ecology, Vol. 6: http://tiee.ecoed.net/vol/v6/figure_sets/climate_change/abstract.html. 1 • Nitrogen fertilization and tillage increase the amount of N2 O given off to the atmosphere through the processes of nitrification and denitrification (Mosier et al. 1991). • Nitrogen fertilizer is produced using energy from fossil fuels, and applications of nitrogen fertilizer can result in high nitrous oxide emissions. Certain management activities have been shown to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions after accounting for all inputs and emissions (i.e., the Net Global Warming Potential) (Robertson et al., 2000). For example, growing winter cover crops increases net primary productivity and inputs of organic carbon to the soil. Perennial plants have expansive root systems and have long growth periods, thus increasing soil carbon storage (Cox et al., 2006). Thus, depending how, where, and when a crop is grown the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases released can vary quite a lot. Since it was first recognized that agriculture could be a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, and that many aspects of food production could be changed to alter these emissions, there has been a series of comprehensive, global studies of our food systems (e.g., West and Marland, 2003; Lal, 2004; Garnett, 2011). I, however, have a very simple question: How much CO2 is released to grow the wheat needed to make a single loaf of whole wheat bread? We are going to ignore the other greenhouse gases, energy required to take the wheat and turn it into bread and drive it to a shop. Still, I think you’ll find that answering even this little question becomes rather involved. Class exercise: A wheat field as an ecosystem As you will recall, an ecosystem is comprised of all of the interacting biotic and abiotic components or features of a given place. This could be a watershed or a wheat field. In our case, we can be even more specific—our ecosystem is the section of wheat field needed to produce one loaf of bread. So how much is that? Well, this lab will involve a lot of conversions, so let us begin by sorting this out. Here are the relevant facts1 : • An average yield is 82 bushels of wheat per acre. • A bushel produces 60 pounds of whole wheat flour. • A standard pound-and-a-half loaf of whole wheat bread requires 16 ounces (1 pound) of whole wheat flour. 1 These factors come from the National Association of Wheat Growers (http: //www.wheatworld.org/wheat-info/fast-facts/) and Quara (http://www.quora.com/ How-many-square-feet-of-wheat-are-required-to-produce-a-loaf-of-bread), which is a favorite place to find interesting facts, ideas, and perspectives. 2 Now of course we are scientists and so we would never use these quaint Imperial units. So, your first task is to establish the size of our ecosystem in hectares (ha) or meters-squared (m2 ). Size of the ecosystem: Next, use the picture of our wheat field, below, to draw a diagram of the fluxes of CO2 into and out of our ecosystem, with a focus on the fluxes in and out of the atmosphere. Be sure to label the processes associated with each arrow. Make sure you think about the ways that C accumulates in the ecosystem and all of the ways that C is produced. You need to think broadly about this, too. For instance, the wheat seeds are generally produced somewhere else and so while they weigh very little, they are associated with a lot of CO2 emissions; that is, they are a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Before you move on, you should discuss your diagram with your lab group, other groups, and the class as a whole. 3 Class exercise: Adding numbers to the fluxes So now we have the basic understanding of the fluxes (arrows) of CO2 into and out of our ecosystem, but we do not know how big these arrows should be. How can we sort this out? Well, one way would be to set up a wheat field and measure biomass accumulation both above and below ground; the amount of each fertilizer added (and back-track the energy inputs to create those fertilizers); the amount of petroleum burned to till the soil, plant the wheat, harvest it, etc.; and so forth. In fact, this has been done by a long list of curious scientists over the years. We are lucky; we get to benefit from their long hours and intricate research!2 And you are even luckier! I’ve done the work of finding useful sources of data on many, many fluxes. Your job is easy: YOUNGET AL.: TILLAGE, WEEDMANAGEMENT, AND W 6600 conservation 6400 conventional 74 70 6200 66 6000- x 62 58 5800- 54 5600- 50 ~oo- 46 5200- 42 5000- 74 70 4800 66 4800- 620 4400- 58 4200- 540 4000 500 VVVV-SP WW-SW WW-VVVV 1. Find the appropriate values for Rotation Position each flux (or fluxes) in your diaFig. 1. Five-year average of winter wheat yield in response to gram, convert them to the approtillage systems and rotation position. Within tillage systems Five-year average winter wheat (WW) yield (conservation, a-c; conventional, x-z), rotation positions with priate size for our little ecosystem, same letters County are not significantly different (P < 0.05). intheWhitman under conservation (no **,*** Significant differences at the 0.01 and 0.001 probability and add them to your diagram. till) andrespectively, conventional whenwithin WW was levels, betweentillage tillage systems rotation position. WW-SP= winter wheat after spring pea; WWplanted after spring pea (SP), spring wheat 2. Determine whether our small SW = winter wheat after spring wheat; WW-WW = winter wheat after winter wheat. or winter wheat (WW) from Young agroecosystem is a net Carbon (SW), source or sink. That is, does grow- et al. (1994). For simplicity let’s assume our Weeds, especially downybrome, reduced yield ecosystem is WW-WW. Also, let’sgrain assume ing wheat fix more Carbon than is in winter wheat after winter wheat under conservation that the yield biomass that leaves released in all of the processes that tillage (Fig. 2). isAsthe withonly diseases, downy brome populations increased over time and became a severe pest the ecosystem. go into growing it? problem after 6 yr (F.L. Young, unpublished data). no-till wheat yields following spring wheat were In the next few pages you will find several 1991, 20% higher with maximumweed management compared useful tables and figures from which to glean with minimum weed management (data not shown). Downy brome populations plants here m-2 inthan the maxinformation on the magnitude of these fluxes. Be careful! There is awere lot3more you imumweed managementlevel and 75 plants m-2 in the will probably need. minimumlevel. Root diseases had no measurable effect on yields of 2 Don’t you love science! As long as you acknowledged (i.e., cite) the sources you take information from either moldboard plowed continuous wheat or winter wheat it isn’t considered stealing! in the conservation tillage, 3-yr rotation (R.J. Cook,unpublished data). This agrees with previous research that plowingor a 3-yr rotation reduces root diseases (7). For 4 wheat, the type of crops rotated is not as important as the length of rotation, which permits time for the soil to be sanitized by microorganisms(7). Weed Management x Tillage Effect Whendiseases are suppressed or eliminated, as in the 3-yr cropping system, weeds become the limiting yield factor, and wheat yields increase in response to weed management levels if sufficient moisture is present (Fig. 2a). In the 3-yr cropping system, yield of winter wheat 460 420 740 700 660 620 580 MO 5O 460 420 Fig. 2. Five-ye tillage syst (a) spring p tillage syste managementl different (P probability levels. WW = winter w wheat after following pe managementfo at the moder With convent erate and m higher than w of no-till w creased with and were 11 imumlevels o minimumleve T.O. West, G. Marland / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 91 (2002) 217–232 223 Carbon dioxide emissions for currently used pesticides pumping (US Department of Commerce, 1997) and T.O. West, G. Marland / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 91 (2002) 217–232 were estimated by assigning 64 herbicides, insectienergy price estimates (EIA, 2000b). The energy use cides, and fungicides used on US corn (Zea mays L.), and C emissions from pumping water were applied to Table 6 wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and soybean (Glycine both on-farm wells and off-farm surface reservoirs. Fossil fuel energy requirements and carbon dioxide emissions from seed production max L.) crops in 1996 (Fernandez-Cornejo and Jans, It was assumed that the average energy and CO2 Seed Costa (US$ kg−1 ) Energyb (MJ kg−1 ) C emissionsc 1999) to their respective pesticide classes and calcucost of pumping water is the same (kg perC ha-m of waper kg seed) lating weighted averages of the C emissions based on ter for the two sources (USDA, 1997a). The energy Grain seed the relative amounts of pesticides used. It 0.26 was again cost of collecting and distributing 0.11 on-farm surface Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) 5.57 assumed, unless specified otherwise, that steam was water, powered primarily by gravitational Corn (Zea Mays L.) 2.49 53.36 1.05 forces, was raised burninghirsutum natural L.) gas. Energy balances considered33.00 to be negligible. Cotton by (Gossypium 1.54for pro0.65 Oats (Avena satira L.) 0.29 6.21 0.12 duction of some pesticides are rough approximations Sorghum bicolor L.) 2.03may be 43.50 0.86 only, but(Sorghum Green (1987) suggested that values 2.5. Seed 12.86 production Soybean (Glycine max L.) 0.60 0.25 within ±10% for some of the best known0.31 and most Wheat, spring (Triticum aestivum L.) 6.64 0.13 widely used (Triticum pesticides. Different5.57 methods for calculating Wheat, winter aestivum L.) 0.26 0.11energy use in seed production have been reviewed and compared Forage seed (Heichel, 1980). Heichel (1980) concluded that the 2.4. Irrigation Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) 6.21 133.08 2.63 Orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) 2.62 56.15 method would be to1.11 most accurate calculate a deRed clover (Trifolium 87.01budget for each crop, 1.72 tailed energy including energy Irrigation water pratense in the L.) US is obtained4.06 primarily Ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) 1.28 27.43 0.54 for seed cleaning and packaging of the seed. Heichel from on-farm wells, on-farm surface reservoirs, and Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) 1.61 34.50 0.68 further concluded that, lacking these detailed energy off-farm surface reservoirs (Table 5). Fossil fuels used a prices from USDA (1997c). budgets, the next best method was to estimate energy tob Seed power pumps, which distribute irrigation water, Using dollar to energy conversion of 21.43 MJ US$−1 for agricultural products (US Office of Technology Assessment, 1990). costs using the retail cost of seeds in conjunction were calculated using energy expenses for on-farm c 224 Fuel mix contributing to C emissions is assumed to consist of fuel oil (50%), natural gas (20%), and electricity (30%) (Börjesson, 1996). The Table 5 energy and C-emissions involved in producing seeds (West and Marland, 2002). with thefossil current dollar-to-energy transformacovercollection, after planting. Reduced tillage water (RT) represents Annual fuel average energy requirements and carbon dioxide emissions from storage, and use of irrigation tion coefficient for agriculture. Energy used in seed practices that leave 15–30% residue cover. ConFuel use and irrigation Area irrigated by fuel requiredb CO2 emissions irrigated by production, packaging, and distribution (Table Energy 6) was servation tillage is any practice thatArea leaves greater a −1 type type (million ha) (GJ ha ) irrigation typea (%) −1 −1c In kg Cresidue ha In kg Cplanting; ha-m estimated from current seed prices (USDA, 1997c) and than 30% after this latter catea On-farm dollar-to-energy conversion factor for general agrigory includes no-till (NT) (Conservation Technolpump cultural products (US Office ogy Information Center, tillage Electricity 8.00 of Technology Assess5.32 266.00 – 1998). Conventional – Natural gas Carbon emissions 2.46 19.61 – of plowing, while – ment, 1990). were calculated with usually285.13 involves the use reduced 0.65used in seed production 6.70 the LPG assumption that energy tillage125.22 involves using –disks or chisels,– without the Distillate fuel 3.33 7.53 165.28 – – consisted of a 50, 20, and 30% mix of fuel oil, natural use of plows. No-till leaves the soil undisturbed. In Gasoline 0.07 5.92 125.92 – – gas, and electricity, respectively (Börjesson, 1996). this analysis, CT is any practice that uses a moldTotal on-farm pump 14.48 8.31 597.93practices that –do not use a board 239.17 plow, RT includes d Total on-farm wells – 8.31 239.17 plow, and 597.93 moldboard NT leaves the 62.08 soil relatively on-farmemissions surface – 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.77 undisturbed. 3.Total Carbon relative to tillage practice Total off-farm surface – 15.17 436.49 597.93 29.99 and crop type Total US averagee – 9.26 266.48machinery525.10 104.84 3.1. Farm a Emissions generated Data fromofUSCO Department of Commerce are (1997). Totals for columns may not equal sums of individual values due to independent 2 from agriculture rounding. Energy and CO2 emissions associated with diffrom three sources: machinery used for cultivating b Based on 1994 irrigation data (US Department of Commerce, 1997) and 1994 energy prices (EIA, 2000b). ferent tillage practices (Table 7) are a consequence the land, production and application of fertilizers and c Average depth of water applied in 1994 was 0.40, 0.43, and 0.73 m for on-farm pump, on-farm surface, and off-farm surface, respectively pesticides, and the SOC that is oxidized following of the fuel used by farm machines and the en(US Department of Commerce, 1997). Data were not available for the amount of water applied with respect to the primary fuel used. d Irrigation water soil disturbance. The amount of soil that is disturbed, ergy consumed manufacture, transportation, and is from on-farm wells is primarily derived from a pump system; energyinused for off-farm surface water collection inassumed turn causing decomposition andwater oxidation of on-farm SOC, pumprepair of the machines (Bowers, 1992). COand to be the same per ha-m of as that for water, and energy used for on-farm surface waterWhile collection 2 is assumed on to be (USDA, 1997a). isdistribution largely dependent thenegligible tillage practices used. The emissions associated with the application of fertilize The total area is greater than 100% because some areas are irrigated using more than one irrigation practice and are counted twice in amount of fertilizers and pesticides applied varies ers and pesticides were calculated along with other the US agriculture survey data. The total weighted energy and carbon emission values shown here have been normalized to 100% coverage. among crop types, crop rotations, and tillage practices. farm operations (Table 7), they do not occur on all The term conventional tillage (CT) represents fields and in all years, as do other farm operations. The energythat and C-emissions involved and Marland, 2002).of tillage practices leave less than 15% residuein irrigating Therefore,crops CO2 (West emissions from the application 5 T.O. West, G. Marland / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 91 (2002) 217–232 225 Table 7 Annual fossil fuel energy requirements and carbon dioxide emissions from agriculture machinery for different tillage practices in the United States, circa 1990 Farm operation Moldboard plow Disk Planting Single cultivationi Fertilizer application Pesticide application Harvest w/combine Diesel fuel used in machine operation In l ha−1 In MJ ha−1 21.78c 6.70d 4.93e 3.26f 9.82g 1.22g 11.14g 1122 345 254 168 506 63 574 Energy in MTRa (MJ ha−1 ) Carbon emissions (kg C ha−1 ) CTb (kg C ha−1 ) RTb (kg C ha−1 ) NTb (kg C ha−1 ) 102 55 58 42 60 56 186 26.75 8.72 6.79 4.57 12.35 2.54 16.47 26.75 17.44h 6.79 4.57 –j –j 16.47 – 17.44h 6.79 4.57 – – 16.47 – – 6.79 – – – 16.47 72.02 67.45 45.27 40.70 23.26 23.26 Total C emissions Corn Soybean and wheati a Energy embodied in manufacturing, transportation, and repair of machinery is from residual fuel (25%), distillate fuel (10%), coal (45%), electricity (8%), and human labor (12%) (Bowers, 1992; Boustead and Hancock, 1979; and Graedel and Allenby, 1995). Energy from human labor is not included in calculations for carbon emissions, because it is assumed that humans will respire carbon dioxide regardless of whether they are working. b CT, RT, and NT are conventional till, reduced till, and no-till, respectively. c Sources of data for calculations of average fuel use are Collins et al. (1980), Gumbs and Summers (1985), Plouffe et al. (1995), Shelton (1980), Sijtsma et al. (1998), Tompkins and Carpenter (1980). d Sources of data for calculations of average fuel use are Collins et al. (1980), Shelton (1980), Sijtsma et al. (1998), Smith (1993), Tompkins and Carpenter (1980). e Sources of data for calculations of average fuel use are Collins et al. (1980), Tompkins and Carpenter (1980). f Sources of data for calculations of average fuel use are Shelton (1980), Smith (1993). g Source of data for calculation of average fuel use is Bowers (1992). h Disking was counted twice to represent two passes over the field. i Single cultivation is not included in analyses for wheat, soybean, or other non-row crops. j Since fertilizer and pesticide application does not necessarily occur on an annual basis, the associated C emissions need to be weighted with respect to the percentage of crops using fertilizers and pesticides (see Table 8). The energy C-emissions involved in various stages growing row crops (West and fertilizers and and pesticides are weighted by their extent to RT to NTof (USDA, 1997b) (Table 8). Although the Marland, 2002). of application and are included in Table 8. decreased use of insecticides with no-till appears to 3.2. Crop inputs Carbon dioxide emissions from specific crop inputs are given for corn, soybean, and wheat (Table 8). Agronomic inputs were calculated from the US national average use of fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation, and other production inputs. National average data were available as a function of crop type and tillage intensity for all inputs except lime and irrigation, and for these, data were available for crop type only. This analysis assumes that the need for lime does not change with the intensity of tillage. United States data for 1995 show that herbicide use was greater, and insecticide use less, going from CT 6 be contrary to traditional agronomic findings, a recent study that reviewed past estimates of national insecticide use confirmed this trend and concluded that insecticide use with NT is no more than that with CT, and is often less (Day et al., 1999). Fungicides were not included in the accounting, because the contribution is negligible and data were not available. Carbon emissions from the application of fertilizers, pesticides, and lime were combined with their respective C emissions from production on a per crop basis, and the emissions total weighted by the percentage of planted area using the respective treatments. Emissions from application were included with emissions from production separately for herbicides and insecticides since they are typically applied separately. Emissions from from crude petroleum or natural gas products. The total energy input is thus both the material used as feedstock and the direct energy inputs. Carbon dioxide emissions from production of pesticides (Table 4) consist of both of these contributions to manufacture the active ingredient. Post-production emissions include those from formulation of the active ingredients into emulsifiable oils, wettable powders, or granules; and those from packaging, transportation, and application of the pesticide formulation. Carbon dioxide emissions from pesticide use were estimated for specific pesticide classes by calculating average values of energy input for the production and application of individual pesticides (Green, 1987). emissions. Similarly, production of P fertilizers typically results in generation and export of excess steam. Sulfuric acid plants, that are generally run in conjunction with phosphoric acid production, generate and export excess steam that can equal 40% of the gross energy requirement for P2 O5 production. Because much of this steam export appears to be generated from the burning of sulfur, and hence without CO2 emissions, it is included in the energy balance summarized here but ignored in the CO2 balance. Recently, revised calculations by Anthony Turhollow (personal communication, 2000) indicate that natural gas used in the production of P2 O5 may be more than previously Table 4 Fossil fuel energy requirements and carbon dioxide emissions from production of pesticides Herbicide In Productiona Naphtha Natural gas Coke Distillate fuel Electricityb Steamc Production total GJ Mg−1 Insecticide In kg C Mg−1 In GJ Mg−1 Fungicide In kg C Mg−1 In GJ Mg−1 In kg C Mg−1 71.99 43.04 0.32 12.31 71.68 44.22 1572.98 625.80 9.80 270.20 1228.80 642.96 63.31 49.78 0.77 7.86 92.13 47.97 1383.32 723.80 23.59 172.53 1579.37 697.48 92.20 31.10 0.00 11.10 78.15 53.34 2014.57 452.19 0.00 243.65 1339.71 775.56 243.56 4350.54 261.82 4580.09 265.88 4825.68 2.00 1.00 20.00 43.90 17.14 290.80 2.00 1.00 20.00 43.90 17.14 290.80 2.00 1.00 20.00 43.90 17.14 290.80 Post-productiond Distillate fuel Electricityb Natural gas Post-production total Pesticide total 23.00 351.84 23.00 351.84 23.00 351.84 266.56 4702.38 284.82 4931.93 288.88 5177.52 a Based on weighted amount of pesticides used on corn, wheat, and soybean crops in the United States in 1996, using pesticide energy values from Green (1987). b Energy input from electricity is given as the primary energy input required for power generation and is based on 10.5 MJ kWh(e)−1 (0.0105 GJ kWh(e)−1 ). c Demands for steam are assumed to be met by combustion of natural gas. d Includes formulation, packaging, and transportation (Green, 1987). The energy for formulation is assumed to be from natural gas, the energy for packaging an equal mix from electricity and distillate fuel, and the energy for transportation from diesel fuel. Energy used in post-production processing is assumed to be the same for the different pesticides and for their respective formulations. Energy used in pesticide application is included in later calculations (see Table 7). The energy and C-emissions involved in producing herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides (West and Marland, 2002). 7 T.O. West, G. Marland / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 91 (2002) 217–232 221 8 The energy and C-emissions from producing three common fertilizers (and agricultural lime, which we can probably ignore) (West and Marland, 2002). It may help to note that “Mg” does not mean “milligram,” but instead “megagram” or 106 grams. Group exercise: adding complexites Putting together your energy diagram this wheat field ecosystem, you probably started to ask yourself about a lot of the details of the system. How much fertilizer is added? What kind? Does that change productivity a little or a lot? Some of these complexities can change how Carbon flows through the system a great deal while others do not. So now is your chance to satisfy your curiosity. In this last part of the lab you will use published or governmental data sources and the same approach to CO2 budgets we used above to address one of the following questions: • Do increased yields (i.e., CO2 fixation) offset the C involved in applying fertilizer? That is, from the perspective of CO2 emissions, is it better to fertilize wheat fields or not? • Does this change with the form of fertilizer used (Ammonia, nitrates, organic)? • How do farming practices such as tilling or burning influence CO2 fluxes and accumulation in the ecosystem? • How would CO2 accumulation and fluxes change if wheat were a perennial crop? • Or, if you are adventurous or curious, a question that your TA approves. You will be writing your results in a 12-sentence abstract again, so look ahead to the guidelines. Here are several potentially useful references (click to go the pdfs): • West, T. O., and G. Marland. 2002. Net carbon flux from agricultural ecosystems: methodology for full carbon cycle analyses. Environmental Pollution 116:439-444. • West, T. O., and G. Marland. 2003. Net carbon flux from agriculture: Carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, crop yield, and land-use change. Biogeochemistry 63:73-83. • Cox, T. S., J. D. Clover, D. L. Van Tassel, C. M. Cox, and L. R. DeHaan. 2006. Prospects for developing perennial grain crops. Bioscience 56:649. • Halvorson, A. D., and C. A. Reule. 1994. Nitrogen fertilizer requirements in an annual dryland cropping system. Agronomy Journal 86:315-318. 9 Format of abstract You will need to turn in an abstract detailing your hypothesis and related logic, your tests of this hypothesis, your prediction, and your findings. In science—indeed, in powerful writing in general—brevity and clarity are essential. Thus, this assignment will be very similar to the 12-sentence paper you turned in for your first lab. Make every word count! Focusing on one of the seven tests we conducted in lab, your abstract will consist of: 1. Introduction (1–2 sentences). Here you need lay out the context and logic that leads to your hypothesis and research. If we were writing about a test of the hypothesis that adding worms to wheat fields led to increased yields high enough to offset the loss of organic C from decomposition, we might start out by discussing the energetic costs of hibernation: “Although worms aerate the soil, which increases aerobic microbial decomposition, and directly consume soil organic matter, their action also increases crop yields. . . ” 2. Hypothesis (1 sentence). A brief, clear statement of the hypothesis you set out to test. This is not the same thing as an expectation. If you are unclear on the different consult your TA. It might start out with, “We hypothesized that . . . ” 3. Methods & Predictions (2–3 sentences). Describe the data and analyses you used to test your hypothesis. This will include the sources (i.e., where the data came from), the spatial and temporal scale (e.g., county, state, USA; time period), and a brief description of the data (e.g., crop yields with and without worms), as well as how you went about using these data (e.g., including them in your Carbon budget). You also need to state your prediction, which should be closely related to both your hypothesis and your data and analyses. 4. Results (1–2 sentences). Summarize in text format your results (i.e., “When worms were included in our Carbon budget wheat fields became net Carbon sinks because of large changes in. . . ”). The focus should be on changes to your system that are meaningful to your hypothesis. 5. Conclusion (1 sentence). Here you just need to make a conclusion about whether your hypothesis was strongly/weakly supported, or not. Keep it brief! 10 Grading rubric for Wheat field ecosystem lab assignment Criteria Introduction provides context and logic clear Points Possible 1 Hypothesis is clear and coherent 1 Data and assumptions are accurately described (sources, scale, etc.) Method of testing hypothesis is clearly explained Prediction is laid out in relation to hypothesis and test 2 1 1 Results and meaningful relationship(s) clearly describe 2 Conclusion is logical and flows from results 2 Total 10 11 References Conrad, R. 1996. Soil microorganisms as controllers of atmospheric trace gases (H2 , CO, CH4 , OCS, N2 O, and NO). Microbiological Reviews 60:609–640. Cox, T. S., J. D. Clover, D. L. Van Tassel, C. M. Cox, and L. R. DeHaan. 2006. Prospects for developing perennial grain crops. Bioscience 56:649. Duxbury, J. M. 1994. The significance of agricultural sources of greenhouse gases. Fertilizer Research 38:151–163. Garnett, T. 2011. Where are the best opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the food system (including the food chain)? Food Policy 36, Supplement 1:S23–S32. Lal, R. 2004. Carbon emission from farm operations. Environment International 30:981–990. Robertson, G. P. and P. R. Grace. 2004. Greenhouse gas fluxes in tropical and temperate agriculture: the need for a full-cost accounting of global warming potentials. In Tropical Agriculture in Transition—Opportunities for Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions?, 51– 63, Springer. Robertson, G. P., E. A. Paul, and R. R. Harwood. 2000. Greenhouse gases in intensive agriculture: contributions of individual gases to the radiative forcing of the atmosphere. Science 289:1922–1925. Schlesinger, W. H. 1999. Carbon Sequestration in Soils. Science 284:2095–2095. West, T. O. and G. Marland. 2002. A synthesis of carbon sequestration, carbon emissions, and net carbon flux in agriculture: comparing tillage practices in the United States. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 91:217–232. West, T. O. and G. Marland. 2003. Net carbon flux from agriculture: Carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, crop yield, and land-use change. Biogeochemistry 63:73–83. Young, F., A. Ogg, R. I. Papendick, D. Thrill, and J. Alldredge. 1994. Tillage and Weed Management Affects Winter Wheat Yield in an Integrated Pest Management System. Agronomy Journal 86:147–154. 12
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